TO: FROM: RE: DATE: Interested Parties Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates Summary of California School Bond Measure Survey Results December 31, 2014 A surveyi of California voters likely to cast a ballot in the November 2016 Presidential Election shows that most believe the state’s K-12 public schools and community colleges are underfunded, and have a significant need for additional funds to repair deteriorating classrooms and school buildings, upgrade outdated technology and improve the quality of career education programs. It is particularly noteworthy that over the course of this year the number of voters identifying public schools’ funding needs as “great” increased significantly, and the proportion who would vote “definitely” yes on a statewide school bond measure is also higher.ii As shown below in Figure 1, after voters heard a simulated ballot label statement for a $9 billion statewide school bond measure, 55 percent vote “definitely” or “probably” yes, and an additional eight percent lean towards voting in favor of the bond measure. The survey also finds that support for a statewide school bond measure has intensified as the percentage who would vote “definitely” yes (38 percent) is seven points higher now than at the beginning of the year. These results show that voters continue to prioritize investments in California’s schools and community colleges, and are committed to funding school improvement projects. FIGURE 1: VOTE ON STATEWIDE SCHOOL BOND MEASURE 2425 Colorado Avenue. Suite 180 Santa Monica, CA 90404 Phone: (310) 828-1183 Fax: (310) 453-6562 1999 Harrison Street Suite 2020 Oakland, CA 94612 Phone: (510) 451-9521 Fax: (510) 451-0384 California School Bond Measure Survey—Summary of Results Page 2 The statewide school bond measure has a broad base of support across most major demographic and geographic segments of the California electorate. Three-in-four Democrats vote in favor, as do twothirds of No Party Preference voters, and majorities of Republicans ages 18-49 and Republican women support the proposed statewide school bond measure. Moreover, support for the bond measure exceeds six-in-ten regardless of race/ethnicity and among parents and non-parents, and more than two-thirds of voters in the state’s most populous regions (Los Angeles County and the Bay Area) vote yes. The higher intensity of support for the statewide bond measure is also reflected by a significant increase in the perception that public schools have a “great” need for additional funds. Today, a majority (53 percent) of California voters think the state’s K-12 public schools have a “great” need for additional funding, a seven point increase over the course of the year. (See Figure 2) Similarly, the perception that community colleges and voters’ own local public schools have a “great” need also increased from earlier in the year. FIGURE 2: PERCEIVED LEVEL OF FUNDING NEED FOR PUBLIC SCHOOLS Compared to earlier this year, voters hold more intense opinions that public schools and community colleges require important improvements, and that making investments in public schools is critical regardless of the state’s financial condition. Figure 3 on the next page shows a dramatic 22-point increase in the proportion who “strongly” agree (35 percent vs. 57 percent) that public schools and community college require major health and safety repairs. Furthermore, today a majority (51 percent) “strongly” agrees that funding repairs and improvements to public schools must be a “top priority”, a major 23-point increase since the early part of 2014. California School Bond Measure Survey—Summary of Results Page 3 FIGURE 3: VOTER AGREEMENT WITH STATEMENTS ABOUT CALIFORNIA PUBLIC SCHOOLS These survey results show that California voters continue to support a statewide school bond measure to fund repairs, upgrades and improvements to K-12 public schools and community colleges. In fact, over the course of 2014, voter commitment to passing a statewide school bond measure has intensified as nearly four-in-ten vote “definitely” yes. This higher certainty of support is further demonstrated by more voters thinking public schools have a “great” need for additional funds, and striking increases in the number who “strongly” agree that schools need significant health and safety repairs, and the mindset that investments in public school construction projects are essential. Based on the findings of this survey, proponents of a statewide school bond measure are well-positioned, and should move forward in their planning for the November 2016 election. i Methodology: From December 1-7, 2014, FM3 completed 860 interviews via landline and cellular telephones with California registered voters who are likely to cast ballots in the November 2016 Presidential Election. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3.3% at the 95% confidence interval; margins of sampling error for subgroups within the sample will be larger. Some percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding. Results from a survey conducted January 30-February 9, 2014 are shown for comparison purposes. ii The January 30-February 9, 2014 survey was conducted among likely November 2014 Gubernatorial election voters. Thus, the higher intensity of support for a statewide school bond measure found in the current survey may in part be due to the November 2016 Presidential election providing a more favorable demographic composition of voters.