Morrison-Cronkite Quarterly Poll     Embargoed  copy  for  news  media  /  Embargoed  until  Feb.  24,  2015   Poll  released  and  available  for  all  publications  and  public  on  Feb.  24,  2015   FOR  RELEASE  ON  FEB.  24,  2015     CONTACT:             Joseph  Garcia,  Morrison  Institute  director  of  communication   Joseph.C.Garcia@asu.edu   602-­‐496-­‐0205  office  /  480-­‐459-­‐0922  cell     Poll:  Education  and  water  should  be  Arizona’s  top  priorities   Education  and  water  rank  as  Arizonans’  top  two  priorities  among  state  residents,  according  to  a  new  poll   by  ASU’s  Morrison  Institute  for  Public  Policy  and  the  Walter  Cronkite  School  of  Journalism  and  Mass   Communication.   The  inaugural  Morrison-­‐Cronkite  Quarterly  Poll  surveyed  754  Arizona  adults  to  assess  resident  attitudes   and  opinions  about  a  variety  of  issues,  from  health  care  to  law  enforcement  to  arts  and  culture.   When  asked  to  prioritize  the  K-­‐12  system  in  the  context  of  state  spending  –  very  high,  high,  low,  or  very   low  priority  –  nearly  nine  in  10  Arizonans  (89  percent)  responded  very  high  (46  percent)  or  high  (43   percent)  in  terms  of    funding  consideration  for  education.     “This  comes  as  no  surprise,”  said  David  Daugherty,  associate  director  of  Morrison  Institute  and  director   of  the  statewide  poll.  “Researchers  have  consistently  noted  that  Arizonans  recognize  their  public  school   system’s  shortcomings  and  their  desire  to  improve  it.”     Law  enforcement  and  public  safety  ranked  third  (82  percent)  in  the  poll,  yet  Arizona’s  prison  system   ranked  lowest  among  the  11  listed  priorities  (42  percent).   1     In  regard  to  state  funding,  nearly  eight  in  10  Arizona  adults  believe  Arizona  spends  too  little  on  K-­‐12   education,  with  nearly  two-­‐thirds  willing  to  put  additional  money  into  K-­‐12  education,  according  to  the   poll.       While  the  vast  majority  of  Arizonans  is  concerned  about  the  state’s  kindergarten  through  12th-­‐grade   education  system,  and  believes  further  investment  and  improvements  are  critical,  Arizona  consistently   hovers  near  the  bottom  of  all  50  states  in  academic  quality,  achievement  and  per-­‐pupil  spending.   Meanwhile,  among  the  11  issues  offered  to  respondents,  “maintaining  adequate  water  and  water   quality”  ranks  at  that  same  level  of  importance  (87  percent)  as  education.     “It’s  apparent  that  the  importance  of  ensuring  an  adequate  and  quality  water  supply  for  Arizona’s  varied   interests  figures  prominently  on  Arizonans’  radar.  This  is  a  complex  and  dynamic  issue,  but  clearly  one   that  Arizonans  understand  as  a  priority  that  needs  to  be  thoroughly  examined  and  addressed,”   Daugherty  said.   The  second  installment  of  findings  from  the  Morrison-­‐Cronkite  Quarterly  Poll  will  be  released  March  3   and  include  such  topics  as  marijuana  laws,  water  supply  and  care  giving  for  people  with  disabilities.   Methodology   The  survey  of  754  randomly  selected  Arizona  adults  was  conducted  between  Jan.  20-­‐28,  2015.   Interviews  averaged  12  minutes  in  length  with  about  40  percent  of  interviews  conducted  via  mobile   phones.    Respondents  were  given  the  choice  of  doing  the  interview  in  English  or  Spanish.    To  ensure   results  represent  the  general  state  population,  data  was  weighted  by  using  a  post-­‐stratification   technique  to  scale  the  respondents  to  census  population  estimates,  including  geographic  distribution. The  margin  of  error  for  most  items,  prior  to  subsample  breakdowns,  is  about  4  percentage  points.   Morrison  Institute  for  Public  Policy  is  Arizona’s  premier  think  tank,  examining  critical  Arizona  and   regional  issues  and  a  catalyst  for  public  dialogue.  A  unit  of  the  Arizona  State  University  College  of  Public   Service  and  Community  Solutions,  Morrison  Institute  uses  nonpartisan  research  and  communication   outreach  to  help  improve  the  state  and  region’s  quality  of  life.  MorrisonInstitute.asu.edu   The  Walter  Cronkite  School  of  Journalism  and  Mass  Communication  is  widely  recognized  as  one  of  the   nation’s  premier  professional  journalism  programs.  Rooted  in  the  time-­‐honored  values  that  characterize   its  namesake  —  accuracy,  responsibility,  objectivity,  integrity  —  the  school  fosters  journalistic  excellence   and  ethics  among  students  as  they  master  the  professional  skills  they  need  to  succeed  in  the  digital   media  world  of  today  and  tomorrow.  Cronkite.asu.edu     •     2     Key  Findings   Common  Core   The  Common  Core  curriculum  is  a  lightning  rod  in  the  politics  of  education.  Justified  or  not,  its  very   name  has  become  synonymous  with  federal  overreach,  as  well  as  concerns  by  many  that  it  makes  math   too  complicated.  This  makes  testing  public  approval  or  disapproval  of  Common  Core  somewhat  difficult.   So,  in  order  to  gauge  Arizonans’  stance  on  Common  Core,  the  sample  was  split  by  separate  inquiries.   Half  of  the  respondents  were  asked  the  following  question:  “Do  you  favor  or  oppose  the  Common  Core   curriculum  for  Arizona  public  schools?”   The  other  half  was  asked:  “Do  you  favor  or  oppose  establishing  a  standard  set  of  education  concepts  to   be  taught  in  public  schools  across  the  country,  including  Arizona,  and  then  testing  students  on  these   concepts  to  assure  that  students  receive  a  rigorous  education  and  providing  a  system  to  allow  outcomes   to  be  compared  from  state  to  state  and  school  to  school?”     The  findings  are  indicative  of  the  political  tinge  related  to  Common  Core.    Fifty-­‐five  percent  of  those   asked  whether  they  favor  or  oppose  Common  Core  said  they  oppose  it  as  a  curriculum  for  Arizona  public   schools.    However,  when  the  basic  elements  of  Common  Core  are  described  to  respondents  without   using  the  term  “Common  Core”  nearly  seven  in  10  (69  percent)  favor  it.         “It  appears  to  underline  that  the  term  ‘Common  Core’  has  become  politicized,”  Daugherty  said.  “Yet   when  the  basic  elements  –  but  not  all  –  of  Common  Core  are  described,  it  receives  positive  reviews.     Responses  to  the  descriptive  question  clearly  indicate  that  the  majority  of  Arizona  citizens  favor  some   form  of  curriculum  standards,  common  testing  and  the  ability  to  compare  across  schools,  districts  and   states.”     Predictably,  there  are  significant  differences  in  opinions  about  Common  Core  by  political  party.    Among   those  who  identify  themselves  as  Republicans,  only  27  percent  favor  “Common  Core”  when  identified  as   such  and  73  percent  oppose  it.  Among  Democrats,  64  percent  favor  “Common  Core”  and  36  percent   oppose  it.    Among  Independents,  34  percent  favor  “Common  Core”  and  66  percent  oppose.    However,   when  Common  Core  is  described,  but  not  referred  to  as  “Common  Core,”  it  is  favored  by  81  percent  of   Democrats,  56  percent  of  Republicans  and  67  percent  of  Independents.     The  K-­‐12  System   Arizonans  are  not  enamored  of  their  K-­‐12  public  education  system.  Half  believe  Arizona’s  high  school   graduates  are  not  as  well  prepared  as  graduates  from  most  other  states.  In  fact,  only  11  percent  believe   Arizona  grads  are  better  prepared  and  39  percent  believe  they  are  “about  as  well  prepared.”   3     The  better  educated  the  respondents,  the  more  likely  it  is  they  believe  Arizona  high  school  graduates  do   not  compare  favorably  with  high  school  graduates  from  most  other  states.     While  Republicans  are  slightly  more  positive  about  Arizona’s  high  school  graduates  than  are   Independents  or  Democrats,  they  still  give  the  system  mediocre  reviews  (45  percent  of  Republicans   believe  Arizona  high  school  graduates  are  not  as  well  prepared  as  high  school  graduates  from  other   states,  49  percent  believe  they  are  about  as  well  prepared  and  only  5  percent  believe  they  are  better   prepared).   Arizonans  are  less  disappointed  in  their  public  universities.  While  the  state’s  three  universities  don’t   receive  a  ringing  endorsement,  21  percent  overall  believe  graduates  from  Arizona’s  public  universities   are  better  prepared  than  public  university  graduates  from  most  other  states.  Sixty-­‐four  percent  believe   they  are  about  as  well  prepared  and  15  percent  believe  they  are  not  as  well  prepared.   Most  Arizonans  believe  the  state  does  not  invest  as  many  tax  dollars  in  K-­‐12  education  as  most  other   states,  according  to  the  poll.  Nearly  three-­‐quarters  (74  percent)  believe  Arizona  invests  fewer  tax  dollar   than  most  other  states  while  only  7  percent  believe  it  invests  more.   Furthermore,  nearly  eight  in  10  Arizona  adults  believe  Arizona  spends  too  little  on  K-­‐12  education,   including  89  percent  of  Democrats,  71  percent  of  Republicans  and  82  percent  of  Independents.   And,  nearly  two-­‐thirds  of  Arizona  adults  say  they  are  willing  to  put  additional  money  into  K-­‐12   education.  Sixty-­‐two  percent  would  be  willing  to  pay  an  additional  $200  per  year  in  state  taxes  to  help   support  the  K-­‐12  education  system,  including  75  percent  of  Democrats,  53  percent  of  Republicans  and   65  percent  of  Independents.       Finally,  while  data  indicate  there  are  significant  differences  in  academic  achievement  by  ethnicity,   including  an  educational  attainment  gap  for  Arizona’s  booming  Latino  population,  only  62  percent  of   Arizona  adults  agree  that  is  true.   Prioritizing  the  Issues   According  to  Arizona  citizens,  how  should  the  Legislature  prioritize  issues?     Respondents  were  asked  how  they  prioritize  11  issues  facing  the  state  –  as  a  very  high  priority,  a  high   priority,  a  low  priority,  or  a  very  low  priority.  The  following  shows  how  Arizonans  prioritize  some  of  the   state’s  most  pressing  issues.                   Highest  Priorities     K-­‐12  education           Maintaining  adequate  water  and  water     quality  for  the  state       Very  High   High   Very  High  +  High            46%        43%                               89%            39        49       87   4           Law  enforcement  and  public  safety                                          34     Mid-­‐level  Priorities     Programs  designed  to  help  children  from     families  living  under  the  poverty  level            31   Health  and  education  services  for     children  under  the  age  of  4              34   Health  care  coverage  for  those  living     below  the  poverty  level                30   The  Arizona  public  universities                25     Lower  Priorities     Raising  state  revenues  to  alleviate     the  budget  deficit                20   State  parks  and  recreation                                            12   Arts  and  culture                                                    10   Arizona’s  prison  system                  11        48     82                                    47     78        39     73          42      47       72   72        42                                    46        37        32           61   58   48   42                       While  there  are  few  surprises  in  the  prioritization  of  the  11  Arizona  issues,  it  is  notable  how  high  the  top   three  issues  are  prioritized.    Because  they  are  given  such  high  overall  priority  –  89  percent,  87  percent   and  82  percent  –  it  means  nearly  everyone  from  every  subgroup  (by  political  preference,  age,   educational  attainment,  etc.)  rate  education,  water/water  quality  and  law  enforcement/public  safety  as   high  priorities.   Essentially,  the  top  three  are  a  “big  deal”  to  almost  everyone.    However,  among  some  of  the  other   issues  measured,  differences  emerge.   Democrats  rate  programs  designed  to  help  children  from  families  living  under  the  poverty  level  as  a   higher  priority  than  do  either  Republicans  or  Independents.  Nearly  half  of  the  state’s  Democrats  (46   percent)  rate  it  a  very-­‐high  priority  compared  with  18  percent  of  Republicans  and  27  percent  of   Independents.  However,  when  combining  the  very-­‐high-­‐priority  group  and  the  high-­‐priority  group,  the   numbers  come  much  closer  together:  84  percent  for  Democrats,  74  percent  for  Republicans  and  82   percent  for  Independents.   Like  other  socially  driven  issues  tested,  Democrats  rate  health  and  education  services  for  children  under   the  age  of  4  as  a  higher  priority  (77  percent  a  very  high  or  high  priority)  than  Republicans  (68  percent),   but  the  same  as  Independents  (75  percent).  However,  41  percent  of  Democrats  rate  it  a  very  high   priority  compared  with  22  percent  of  Republicans  and  32  percent  of  Independents.       5     “The  pattern  of  response  for  the  socially  driven  issues  shows  more  Democrats  than  Republicans  rating   them  a  high  priority  primarily  because  of  the  much  larger  percentage  rating  the  issue  as  a  very  high   priority,”  Daugherty  explained.  “Essentially,  Democrats  are  more  likely  to  rate  socially  driven  issues   higher  than  Republicans  or  Independents  and  a  large  percentage  of  them  appear  to  feel  passionately   about  the  issue.”   Democrats  feel  more  strongly  about  providing  health  care  coverage  for  those  living  below  the  poverty   level  than  do  Republicans  –  42  percent  rate  it  a  very  high  priority  compared  with  18  percent  of   Republicans  (although  42  percent  of  Republicans  rate  it  a  high  priority).       Meanwhile,  four  in  10  Republicans  (40  percent)  rate  providing  health  care  coverage  for  those  living   below  the  poverty  level  as  a  low  (31  percent)  or  very  low  (8  percent)  priority,  compared  with  22  percent   of  Democrats  (17  percent  low  and  5  percent  very  low).    Independents,  now  Arizona’s  largest  contingent   of  registered  voters,  fall  between  the  Democrats  and  the  Republicans  in  their  rating  of  providing  health   care  coverage  for  those  living  below  the  poverty  level:  76  percent  rate  it  as  a  very  high  (24  percent)  or   high  (52  percent)  priority.   Political  differences  also  emerge  in  prioritizing  Arizona’s  public  universities.  Eighty  percent  of  Democrats   rate  it  a  very  high  or  high  priority,  compared  with  66  percent  of  Republicans  and  65  percent  of   Independents.   While  more  Democrats  (65  percent)  than  either  Republicans  (58  percent)  or  Independents  (58  percent)   rate  raising  state  revenues  to  alleviate  the  budget  deficit  as  either  a  very  high  or  high  priority,  the   difference  is  inconsequential.       While  nearly  six  in  10  rate  state  parks  and  recreation  a  very  high  (12  percent)  or  high  (46  percent)   priority  they  are  clearly  viewed  as  far  less  important  to  Arizona  citizens  than  most  of  the  tested  issues.     No  single  or  multiple  subgroups  appear  to  champion  it  as  a  state  priority.   Arts  and  culture  failed  to  get  widespread  traction  as  a  statewide  priority.  Only  10  percent  of  Arizonans   rate  arts  and  culture  as  a  very  high  priority  and  more  than  half,  52  percent,  rate  it  a  low  or  very  low   priority  (including  64  percent  of  Republicans)  in  terms  of  funding.    Much  like  state  parks  and  recreation,   there  does  not  appear  to  be  a  large,  cohesive  group  willing  to  champion  arts  and  culture  as  a  state   priority.   Few  Arizona  adults  list  prisons  as  a  priority,  perhaps  because  they  essentially  operate  in  the  background,   garnering  little  attention  until  an  inmate  escapes.  However,  it  is  important  to  note  that  prisons  account   for  a  disproportionately  large  percentage  of  the  state’s  $9.3  billion  general  fund  –  10.7  percent,  or   nearly  $1  billion,  which  is  $229  million  more  than  the  state  puts  into  its  university  system.       More  than  half  of  Democrats  (62  percent),  Republicans  (55  percent),  Independents  (54  percent),  all   levels  of  education  and  all  ethnic  groups  rate  prisons  a  low  or  very  low  priority.     6     Notably,  respondents  were  asked  the  following  question:  “One  method  suggested  for  reducing  state   spending  is  releasing  some  prisoners  who  were  sentenced  for  non-­‐violent  crime  from  state  prisons  and   turning  them  over  for  community-­‐based  treatment.  Do  you  favor  or  oppose  this  strategy?”   Seventy-­‐six  percent  of  respondents  favor  that  strategy  including  80  percent  of  college  graduates,  79   percent  of  Democrats,  and  82  percent  of  Independents.   Other  Legislative-­‐related  Issues   Most  Arizonans  believe  the  state  needs  to  find  more  ways  to  bring  in  additional  revenue.   They  were  asked:  “Do  you  think  Arizona  brings  in  enough  money  each  year  to  adequately  meet  the   state’s  needs,  brings  in  more  money  than  it  needs,  or  do  you  think  the  state  needs  to  find  ways  to  bring   in  additional  funds?”   Sixty-­‐five  percent  believe  more  revenue  is  needed  while  22  percent  believe  the  state  has  enough   revenue  and  12  percent  believe  the  state  takes  in  more  revenue  than  it  needs.     Predictably,  Democrats  (71  percent)  are  more  likely  than  Republicans  (57  percent)  to  believe  the  state   needs  to  produce  more  revenue,  although  the  percentage  is  relatively  high  for  Republicans.     Independents  fall  between  the  two  political  parties  on  this  issue  (67  percent).     Finally,  respondents  were  asked  to  determine  how  well  the  Legislature’s  projected  decision  making   would  match  their  own  position  on  issues:  “Arizona’s  new  Legislature  is  now  in  session.  Based  upon   what  you  know  about  the  Arizona  Legislature,  how  likely  is  it  they  will  consistently  make  decisions  that   you  will  support  –  very  likely,  somewhat  likely,  not  very  likely,  or  not  at  all  likely?”     A  bare  majority  of  Arizona  citizens,  52  percent,  believe  it  is  very  (10  percent)  or  somewhat  (41  percent)   likely  the  Legislature  will  make  decisions  they  support.       There  are,  predictably,  big  differences  by  political  party.  While  65  percent  of  Republicans  say  it  is  very   (13  percent)  or  somewhat  (52  percent)  likely  the  Republican-­‐controlled  Legislature  will  consistently   make  decisions  they  will  support,  only  34  percent  of  Democrats  feel  that  way.  As  has  been  true   throughout  this  research,  Independents’  position  falls  between  the  two  political  parties,  at  46  percent.     “It  will  be  interesting  to  see  if  these  opinions  prevail  as  this  legislative  session  advances  toward  eventual   adjournment  with  its  new  laws  and  own  set  of  budget  priorities,”  Daugherty  said.  “That’s  among  the  key   benefits  of  a  quarterly  poll,  to  measure  public  opinion  at  various  points  in  time  to  determine  whether   and  where  viewpoints  have  shifted.”       ###     7