1 NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION The Science of Deception: Integration of Theory and Practice Arlington VA, July 17-18, 2003 PREFACE.......................................................................................................................... 2 SCENARIO #1: WALK-INS ARE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE MOST VALUABLE PEOPLE ARE NOT THOSE WHOM WE RECRUIT OR CAPTURE, BUT THOSE WHO APPROACH US. ................ 3 Current challenges: Operational constraints ............................................................. 3 View your interaction with the walk-in as a trade negotiation................................... 4 One lie begets another ................................................................................................ 4 Source evaluation........................................................................................................ 4 Know yourself: deception is 50% self-deception ........................................................ 6 Rules for how to talk with the walk-in ........................................................................ 8 Set up standard operating procedures........................................................................ 9 Implement evaluation mechanisms ........................................................................... 10 As much as possible, control the context of the interview ........................................ 11 General guide for deceiving an interviewer: You are given the task of deceiving an interrogator. What should you do?.......................................................................... 13 Research challenges.................................................................................................. 15 SCENARIO #2 - LAW ENFORCEMENT THREAT ASSESSMENT POST 9/11 LACKS TRIAGING MECHANISMS ................................................................................................................. 15 Categorize threats and prescript appropriate responses.......................................... 16 Research challenges.................................................................................................. 17 SCENARIO #3 - LAW ENFORCEMENT INTERROGATION AND DEBRIEFING ....................... 17 Research challenges: Personal characteristics of good deception detectors........... 17 Research challenges: characteristics of normal conversations................................ 18 Research challenges: the reliability of technological devices to detect deception... 19 Additional research challenges................................................................................. 20 SCENARIO #4 - INTELLIGENCE GATHERING ................................................................... 20 Systematic data collection: needs and challenges .................................................... 20 GENERAL RESEARCH CHALLENGES................................................................... 21 PARTICIPANT LIST (PARTIAL) ............................................................................... 23 2 Preface “Lying is a fact of everyday life. Studies in which people kept daily diaries all of their lives suggest that people tell an average of one or two lies a day. . . . People lie most frequently about their feelings, their preferences, and their attitudes and opinions. Less often, they lie about their actions, plans, and whereabouts. Lies about achievements and failures are also commonplace.” (DePaulo et al., 2003, p. 76). “The pervasive experience of self-deception within deception is a result of our ability to entertain models of the world independent of our experience. Our capacity for understanding is particularly implicated in its ability to allow us to create or imagine possible as well as actual worlds.” (Mitchell, 1996, p. 842) A meeting of social and behavioral scientists and personnel from law enforcement and intelligence agencies was held in Arlington, VA on July 17 and 18, 2003. The topics were deception and deception detection in four situations: the evaluation of information offered by a ‘walk-in’ to a U.S. embassy abroad, the evaluation of the veracity of threats by telephone, letter and email to the FBI and U.S. Secret Service, the interrogation of suspected criminals by law enforcement, and intelligence gathering by U.S. government agencies. The conversations were focused around four scenarios that were provided by the intelligence and law enforcement communities. This report contains a summary of the conversations recorded at the meeting. It includes some description of current standard operating procedures, recommendations and suggestions offered to intelligence and law enforcement personnel in the situations described by the scenarios, and a list of issues where further consideration and research are needed. Susan E. Brandon January 12, 2004 3 Scenario #1: Walk-ins are important because the most valuable people are not those whom we recruit or capture, but those who approach us. Throughout the world, individuals regularly walk into an American Embassy and state that they have valuable information regarding threats to U.S. interests abroad or sensitive intelligence information. These “walk-ins” or “volunteers” will also phone in or send emails to U.S. embassies with offers of information. Some walk-ins actually have valuable, sensitive information, some are mentally unstable, and some are “provocations,” hoping to pique the interest of the CIA in order to identify Agency employees and /or the methods used by the Agency to handle walk-ins. Others simply wish to provide false and misleading information to the Agency, and still others may have useful information but are trying to peddle the information to multiple governments in the hope of reaping financial gain. Determining who has legitimate information of value and who is engaging in deception is clearly a critical issue. Constraints include limited time to interview the walk-in, variability in interviewer skill (sometimes the interviewer is an Embassy Security Officer, other times it is an Agency ops officer), or lack of face-to-face observation in the case of individuals calling in or writing email. Current challenges: Operational constraints (i) No one, or many, individuals may interact with the volunteer before he sees the interviewer. (ii) Time is critical: “One hour is long and two is a gift.” (iii) This may be the only visit to the embassy that the walk-in will make. (iv) The embassy staff – likely to be the Regional Security Officer, who is responsible for the physical security of the facility – is not likely to know the local language, and the interview may be conducted with the help of a translator or translation cards. (v) The walk-in may be from various backgrounds of culture, language, age, sex, education, and previous experience with Americans. (vi) The situation is highly likely to be viewed as high risk by both parties, but particularly by the walk-in. (vii) The FBI, DoD, and CIA may have different objectives and approaches to the walk-in situation. 4 Participants’ experience with many years of walk-in situations suggested that U.S. embassy personnel are remarkably bad at walk-in evaluation. A worst case scenario is telling a walk-in to “go away and write your story and then come back, because I don’t have time for you right now.” In such instances, interrogators forfeit visual cues and spontaneity, both of which are important to evaluation. Empirical research and current collective experience suggests the following tactics and strategies relevant to for the embassy employee (assumed to be an American male) who processes a walk-in. The walk-in is assumed to be male and a resident of the local population. Where empirical data are available, sources are noted. View your interaction with the walk-in as a trade negotiation Each of you can be assumed to have something that the other wants. It can be assumed that the walk-in has information that is valuable to the U.S. It can be assumed that as an agent of the U.S. government, you have something that is valuable to the walk-in, such as money, security, or relocation. The probability that walk-ins will drop by and deliver a significant item of information on a first visit for nothing is low, however. It is advisable to view this first encounter as the beginning of a negotiation, where “we have money and some services to offer,” and “they have information that may be useful to our national interests.” One lie begets another The walk-in wants to be able to trust you, and he will not do so if he perceives that you are lying to him. Be as truthful as you can. Source evaluation The first step in evaluating a walk-in is to establish whether or not this source is likely to be legitimate or not. Some evasiveness or reticence to divulge identity or all of the information that the subject is wishing to sell should be expected. However, evasiveness is not the same as inconsistency. Given reasonable concerns for exposure, most walk-in sources are likely be initially hesitant about presenting a full, verifiable identity if he is intent on remaining a resident in his current community. The common fate of traitors is death in most of the world, and no amount of financial reward is going to stack up against this. So, unless the subject is seeking relocation for himself and his family as part of some compensation, he should make some efforts to preserve his future by protecting his identity at the start. 5 In addition, it should be expected that anyone selling information is not going to give that information up at the start. If the information is perceived to be of monetary value, why would he divulge it for free? It is reasonable to assume that the source should be able to give details regarding the nature of the information and with sufficient level of detail either about the information or about himself that he can be identified as a potentially credible source. The walk-in who has good information usually provides only partial information, and looks for assurances of safety (e.g., for family). If the walk-in is trying to deceive you as to the source or content of his information, it is possible that he will provide some cues that indicate his deception: (i) Research shows that, in some situations, liars tell their stories in a less compelling and less immediate manner and with fewer relevant and irrelevant details than truth-tellers. Lies also have fewer spontaneous corrections and liars less often admit that they can’t remember. There is no difference in eye contact between those who tell the truth and not, but there is some evidence that liars are more likely to raise their chins while talking. Signs of mental effort may be present with liars, such as pauses and disturbances in speech, more pupil dilation and a higher pitched voice. (These signs of mental effort should increase to the extent that a person is asked to offer long, rather than short, answers to questions.)1 Such cues to deception are more pronounced when people are highly motivated to deceive, especially when the motivations were not monetary or material.2 Some of these cues may be more evident if the interrogator has an opportunity to first observe the walk-in and establish as much of a “baseline of behavior” as possible. Amarillo Slim, a renown and successful poker player, includes among his list of the “top ten keys to poker success,” that one is “always observing at a poker game. “The minute you’re there, you’re working. Watch the other players for ‘tells’ before you look at your own cards.”3 (ii) The walk-in who deliberately is lying might engage in deliberate posture mirroring. Behavioral mirroring or mimicry occurs when an individual imitates the posture behaviors of another person. Mimicry is known to build affiliation, 1 DePaulo, B.M., Lindsay, J. J., Malone, B. E., Muhlenbruck, L., Charlton, K., & Cooper, H. (2003). Cues to Deception. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 74-118. See also DePaulo, B. M., & Morris, W. L. (in press, 2003). Discerning lies from truths: Behavioral cues to deception and the indirect pathway of intuition. In P. A. Granhag & L. Stomwall (Eds.), Deception detection in forensic contexts. 2 Forrest, J. A., & Feldman, R. S. (2000). Detecting deception and judge’s involvement: Lower task involvement leads to better lie detection. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 26, 118-125; DePaulo, B. M., & Tang, J. (1994). Social anxiety and social judgment: The example of detecting deception. Journal of Research in Personality, 28, 1420153. 3 Preston, A. S. (2003). Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People. With Greg Dinkin. Harper Collins, New York (p. 126). 6 liking and rapport between two people.4 This may serve to enhance the walk-in’s ability to deceive. Since this behavior occurs in normal (i.e., nondeceptive) social interactions, as well, it simply is advisable to be aware of the effectiveness of mirroring. (iii) Research shows that most people are not good at detecting lies: across many situations, accuracy at detecting deception is about 53%, which is little better than chance.5 There is some evidence that people are better at reporting an accurate sense of ambivalence about a deception situation, than they are about the specifics of deception.6 In some instances, “implicit measures” of deception have been shown to be significantly better than explicit measures.7 Know yourself: deception is 50% self-deception Know your views, attitudes, and beliefs about your own culture, as well as your views, attitudes, and beliefs about the culture in which you are working. This is as important as knowing the views, attitudes, beliefs and customs of the locals – and far more possible, given the relatively limited training that most embassy staff receive. Cognitive schemas are how people organize their knowledge of the world. These schemas affect our perceptions and our expectations, so that we are more likely to perceive and expect incoming information that is consistent with these schemas than that which is not.8 Deliberate deception is most effective when the walk-in knows what your expectations and views of the world are, so that he can build a story that fits with these expectations, and prescript your imagination Such a story also needs fewer explicit, external details, because it can be assumed that you will fill these in. The walk-in then does not need to offer details that might be unverifiable or contradictory.9 A good interrogator therefore works hard to avoid providing the walk-in with a priori expectations. 4 Lakan, J. L., & Chartrand, T. L. (2003). Using nonconscious behavioral mimicry to create affiliation and rapport. Research Article, Ohio State University; Chartrand, T. L., & Bargh, J. A. (1999). The chameleon effect: The perception-behavior link and social interaction. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 76, 893-910. 5 Bond, C. F., & DePaulo, B. M. (2003). Accuracy and truth bias in the detection of deception. Manuscript in preparation. 6 DePaulo, B. M., Rosenthal, R., Green, C. R., & Rosenkrantz, J. (1982). Diagnosing deceptive and mixed messages from verbal and nonverbal cues. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 18, 433-446; DePaulo, B. M., Charlton, K., Cooper, H., Lindsay, J. J., & Muhlenbruck, L. (1997). The accuracyconfidence correlation in thd detection of deception. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 1, 346357. 7 Vrij, A., Edward, K., & Bull, R. (2001). Police officers’ ability to detect deceit: The benefit of indirect deception detection measures. Legal and Criminalogical Psychology, 6, 185-196. 8 Catrambone, R., & Markus, H. (1989). The role of self-schemas in going beyond the information given. Social Cognition, 5, 349-368; Tesser, A., & Leone, C. (1978). Cognitive schemas and thought as determinants of attitude change. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 340-356. 9 Mitchell, R. W. (1996). The psychology of human deception. Journal of Social Research, 63, 819-861. 7 (i) To get a sense of how to construct a good deception plan, the walk-in might first engage in legitimate and truthful interactions. The deceiver might at this point also provide “facts” that are unverifiable (e.g., claims of people who have died), just to engage you in conversation. (ii) The walk-in who is deliberately lying might take try to get you to offer up some of your own judgments or perceptions of him, so that he can adapt his own behavior in such a way that he will provide apparent confirmation of your views of him. (That is, the walk-in may try to take advantage of people’s inherent tendency to confirm their own biases.10) The walk-in might try to convince you that you have figured him out. You are then more likely to think that you know how to evaluate subsequent information that he provides you, and he can use this as a means of safeguarding other information or as a platform for presenting intentionally deceptive information. For example, an interrogator usually expects that he is going to be lied to. If a walk-in allows himself to be "caught," the theory is that once satisfied that he had the subject accurately assessed all along, the interrogator will stop digging or will not attend to other data that suggest he should look further. Therefore, if you strongly suspect that the walk-in is going to lie, he may create an opportunity for you to catch him in a “lie” by designing an unconvincing cover story that can be penetrated – so that your desire to catch a lie is satisfied. This bogus deception might be the truth (which the walk-in would want the interrogator to dismiss), or it might involve matters unrelated to his intended goal. You might want to try to see if this is happening by presenting a false early characterization of the walk-in or situation that he does not actually hold and then observe whether he makes any attempts to adapt his own stories accordingly. (iii) A good interrogator knows what his own expectations are, and avoids using conformity to those expectations as evidence. Do not seek out information that is too closely tailored to your own expectations. It would be best to look for deception in the situation without preconceptions, but this is not possible – we all have preconceptions of one sort or another (including the preconception that we do not have preconceptions). However, there are means that can be used to counter this tendency. (a) The interrogator can initially enter the situation with a minimum of biasing information. (b) The interrogator can keep focused on a particular task. Specifically, in initial contacts, it may be more important to validate the source first before attempting to validate the content of his information. Also, it may be 10 Mynatt, C. R., Doherty, M. E., & Tweney, R. D. (1978). Confirmation bias in simulated research environment: An experimental study of scientific inference. Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 29, 85-95. 8 helpful to focus on particular aspects of information and try to validate those first, to avoid getting lost in the larger picture/data set of information being presented. (c) As an interrogator, it might be helpful write out any expectations you an honestly identify before the start of the interrogation series and then consciously seek disconfirming evidence. (d) Never offer real opinions, theories, ideas, personal information, etc., to the walk-in that might give away expectations, biases, or beliefs that could be used as tools for deception by the target. (e) Review ahead of time the focus of your questions, and assess where they potentially indicate a particular bias or intent. (f) Assign determinations of whether a subject is being deceptive or not to a second observer (live or video feed). This allows an agent who is not directly involved in the interaction to focus specifically on the target's behavior.11 Rules for how to talk with the walk-in (i) Make questions open-ended. The initial goal of any interrogation is to get the walk-in to do one thing: talk. A common error among novice interrogators is to either ask yes-no type questions, or to move so rapidly into direct questions related to the end goal of the interrogation that the subject's resistance peaks and he stops talking. Thus, in most cases, you want open-ended questions. (ii) Ask surprise questions. Much has been made about the assumptions of interrogators and how they may be misled by the deceptive agent playing to these assumptions or biases. The same is true with reference to the walk-in. Interrogation is generally a novel experience for most people. One way most people attempt to deal with this kind of situation is to make predictions about how it will go. We know that establishing some predictability in the environment is one method for exercising an element of control on what is otherwise a very stressful, uncontrolled situation.12 When a walk-in is being interviewed and the process is in line with expectations, the situation will be perceived as less stressful. Doing something or asking something that serves to surprise him is a way to keep him off balance and feeling out of control. Surprises serve to push the person outside the range of his mental paradigm, and in that domain there is likely to have been no rehearsal, no pat answers, no thought-out cover. 11 G. Hazlett, personal communication (2003). Miller, S. M. (1989). Controllability and human stress: Method, evidence and theory. Behaviour Research & Therapy, 17, 287-304. 12 9 (iii) As the interrogation continues, it becomes more of a conversation between two people and less of an interrogation. It is increasingly subject to the same social contextual variables as normal conversations. Because interrogation becomes more and more a social interaction, you should understand what your social rank is and how it compares to the walk-in, and how the conversation will drift across time because of the social nature of the interaction. Set up standard operating procedures (i) Set up procedures for sending the walk-in to multiple decision makers who are at different agency/departmental levels but all are free to have input (in a nonhierarchical manner). These additional interrogators should be ready to be involved as soon as needed: a) Include relatively junior level (rank) interrogators, because they may offer less of a threat and encourage the walk-in to let down their guard. (b) However, the initial contact should be someone of a higher rank. Culturally, there are certainly occasions where a high level source might be unwilling to cooperate with a perceived lower level staff person and ‘your source walks out the door.’13 Perhaps unfortunately, the reality is that lower level staff persons are most likely to be whom the walk-in first encounters. It is these individuals who should be provided with the necessary tools and training to at least make a reasonable screening of a walk-in before recommending further follow-up. (c) A good practice is to include two to three interrogators working across shifts continuously but on an individual basis. The other interrogators would be able to watch on video or review tapes and use the dynamics of personality differences to get the walk-in to show different responses to different interrogators across time. The interrogators can compare notes and then simultaneously appear before the walk-in and make him discuss any issues on which they have noted discrepancies. (ii) Videotape the interview and seek independent assessment. Research in a variety of settings about how quickly people make general judgments about interviewees has shown that accuracy is greatest in the first minute of contact, is not improved by additional minutes up to a certain point, and then gradually degrades as the length of the interview increases.14 It is advisable to have several independent raters observe a few minutes of tape and make a judgment rather than to place the evaluation into the hands of the actual interrogator who sits with the subject for up to several hours. 13 14 G. Hazlett, personal communication (2003). G. Hazlett, personal communication (2003). 10 (iii) Keep detailed records: Collect data about the antecedent and consequent events to know rates of false alarms and misses, as well as successes. Cues to deception vary with particular deceivers and particular situations. The most promising way to learn about cues to deception or to train people to detect deception is to study the particular context of interest.15 Interrogators should learn about deception from videotapes of suspects/walk-ins known to have been lying or telling the truth during actual interrogations. The particular training technique of showing trainees a clip, asking them to guess whether the person on the tape was lying or telling the truth, then telling them the answer has several advantages. First, it has been shown to at least modestly improve the accuracy of deception detection. Second, it can be very informative and sobering to professionals who often have greater confidence in their own lie-detection abilities than is warranted. Third, although the creation of such a collection of tapes can be challenging, once they are in hand, the training procedures are easy to implement.16, 17 Implement evaluation mechanisms Set up routine methods for the interrogator to assess himself for operating categorically in a manner that may obscure important details. Such assessment should include issues of: (i) How motivated is the interrogator? The embassy personnel may never find someone who has useful information, despite many interviews. How can the motivations of the interrogator be maintained under conditions of low hit rates? 15 B. DePaulo, personal communication (2003). 16 Mann, S., Vrij, A., & Bull, R. (2002). Suspects, lies and videotapes: An analysis of authentic highstake liars. Law and Human Behavior, 26, 365-376; Vrij, A., & Mann, S. (2001). Telling and detecting lies in a high-stake situation: the case of a convicted murderer. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 15, 187203; Mann, S., Vrij, A., & Bull, R. (in press 2003). Detecting true lies: Police officers’ ability to detect suspects’ lies. 17 “The training studies I find most intriguing are ones in which the trainees are given no specific instructions at all. Instead, they watch a clip of someone lying or telling the truth, indicate their judgment as to whether the person was lying or telling the truth, then are told the correct answer. In some studies, trainees show some improvement in accuracy after just 8 trials. (E.g., Zuckerman, Koestner, & Alton, 1984, “Learning to detect deception,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46, 519-528.) I think it might be promising to train people in this way with tapes of the kinds of deceptions that they face on the job. For example, if there were a collection of videotapes of walk-ins, and it were known definitively which people were lying and which were telling the truth, it could be useful to train people who deal with walkins using these tapes. “ (B. DePaulo, personal communication, 2003) 11 (ii) How stressed is the interrogator (due to fatigue or job pressure, etc)? Individuals under stress are more likely to perceive a threat than someone who is not stressed.18 (iii) How long has the interrogator been conducting interrogations in the absence of feedback? When there is no feedback loop, judges of deception are likely to feel over-confident of their ability to detect deception, and subsequently more likely to make erroneous judgments. Interrogators are usually rewarded by getting “something,” and not by getting “the right something.” Many mistakes are made and a lot of poor work is done that goes unchallenged. It is not that interrogators don't want to do well, it is just that there is very little follow-up for most. (iv) As a caveat regarding feedback, it is important to understand the powerful effects of hindsight bias. If errors in judgment are made, reevaluate the facts as they were known before the error was discovered, so that you can see what facts were ignored or misinterpreted. As much as possible, control the context of the interview (i) If the interview occurs in an environment that is under your control (e.g., a room set aside for this purpose), you have the opportunity to set up the context to your own advantage: in some situations, hearing a threat lurking outside the door can be conducive to greater cooperation in the room. High ambient noise may interfere with the capacity to carry on tasks that require high degrees of concentration and attention.19 If the walk-in is obviously naïve, signs that indicate you have much information already (folders, maps, etc.) and that you have sophisticated technology available to you, may be effective. However, if these are a ruse and the walk-in discovers this, this damages the interaction significantly. (A few verified facts placed carefully to ensure that walk-in that he is known and has little to gain from deception, is more effective.) Alternatively, it usually is true that people are more comfortable in their own surroundings, where there may be fewer cues to resistance. This is the kind of issue which speaks to the need to conduct questioning/inquiry covertly in the community in which the walk-in lives in vs. in a government holding facility. 18 Vila, B. J., Dennis, J. K., Morrison, G. B., & Reuland, M. (2000). Evaluating the effects of fatigue on police patrol officers. Washington DC, U.S. Department of Justice; Vila, B., & Taiji, E. Y. (1999). Police work hours, fatigue and officer performance. In D. J. Kenney & R. McNamara (Eds.), Police and Policing (2nd Ed.). Westport CT: Praeger. 19 Military psychological operations conduct loud-speaker operations that, although grating to listen to and appearing to be somewhat silly, have been shown to be effective in increasing the mental load on targets (G. Hazlett, personal communication, 2003). 12 (ii) If possible, take advantage of the fact that most people function better cognitively during the daytime than during the nighttime, and that taking people out of their normal sleep-wake cycle can degrade their cognitive performance.20 Sophisticated resistance to interrogation requires a lot of mental agility. Anything that reduces that agility may increase the likelihood of the resistant subject making errors. However, this kind of technique generally means that you have the capacity to exercise that level of control over the walk-in's environment and schedule. (iii) Consider when and how to increase the anxiety of the walk-in: Anxiety and fear are known to have enhancing effect on some memory and cognitive tests when they are at a medium level, and a debilitating effect when very high.21 However, when the cognitive challenge is complex (as deception might be), anxiety generally degrades performance.22 If the goal is to break a deceptive cover, enhancing anxiety might be an effective interrogation strategy. An individual who arrives at an embassy and appears to have little anxiety may be worth challenging once his initial pitch has been made. In such cases, one might initially assume that either the walk-in is a foreign intelligence operative sowing disinformation, or he is a merchant of information with something to sell and has no belief that such a transaction constitutes any threat to him. In formal interrogation settings, anxiety can have a role to play, particularly in the early phases soon after capture when tactical intelligence is desired. Most detained individuals will relatively quickly habituate to captivity and soon learn that there are limited physical pressures that can be exercised against him. Anxiety and fear are based on not knowing what may happen to you and can be a strong motivator. Once that ignorance is removed, it is difficult to overcome resistance. It is not unreasonable to engage in deliberate deception operations against a detained terrorist that may cause him some anxiety. However, individuals who have been the most successful at interrogation are those who allowed the subjects 20 Englund, C. E., Ryman, D. H., Paul, N., & Hodgdon, J. A. (1985). Cognitive performance during successive sustained physical work episodes. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments & Computers, 17, 75-85; Haslam, D. R. (1983). The incentive effecy and sleep deprivation. Sleep, 6, 362-368; Haslam, D. R. (1985). Sustained operations and military performance. Behavior Research Methods, Instruments & Computers, 17, 90-95; Mertens, H. W., & Collins, W. E. (1985). The effects of age, sleep deprivation, and altitude on complex performance. FAA Office of Aviation Medicine Reports. Rpt. No. FAA-AM-85-3, 18, US: Aviation Medicine. 21 Broadhurst, P. (1957). Emotionality and the Yerkes-Dobson Law. Journal of Ecperimental Psychology, 54, 345-351. 22 Sarason, S. B., Hill, K. T., & Zimbardo, P. (1965). A longitudinal study of the relation of test anxiety to performance on intelligene and achievement tests. Monographs of the Society for Research in Child Development, 29, 1-51; Shephard, A. H., & Abbey, D. S. (1960). Manifest anxiety and performance on a complex perceptual motor task. Perceptual & Motor Skills, 8, 327-330; Sinha, D., & Singh, T. R. (1960). Manifest anxiety and performance on problem solving tasks. Journal of Consulting Psychology, 23, 469. 13 to generate their own anxiety and did not rely upon aggressive/physical means to extract information. A threat is only good if there is some basis for believing it. Once it is discovered to be a false threat, the result is enhanced resistance from the target. Intimidation also is a limited use phenomenon because it habituates quickly when no harm is done. There is also the danger that if a threat is made, the interrogator may at some point feel compelled to carry it out. Once a false threat is identified or intimidation is perceived as a nuisance vs. a threat, credibility of the interrogator is lost along with any efficacy in that role. (iv) Consider when and how to decrease the anxiety of the walk-in: The possibility should be considered that individuals who really have something to offer in terms of information are likely to be generating anxiety on their own. Increasing anxiety is only likely to scare such an individual away. Making contact with Americans aversive is not likely to be an effective long-term strategy for encouraging anyone to come in with information. It would seem desirable to encourage rather than discourage individuals to contact U.S. interests abroad. For example, if it is a regular occurrence for citizens in Baghdad to come to the embassy to sell bogus information for $20, then anyone who really has some valuable information always has a cover story about why he is in the Embassy. Visiting the embassy may become a common practice in the community, which may make it more difficult to ascribe responsibility to anyone when there is suspicion that some real information was actually passed and acted upon. This means more work for some embassy staff, maybe even some dedicated staffers to this task. In the end it would be relatively cheap. Also, among any pool of subjects seeking to lie for a few bucks, there is someone who will tell the truth for a few more if properly recruited. General guide for deceiving an interviewer: You are given the task of deceiving an interrogator. What should you do? (i) Minimize dishonesty. In process of an interview where the intent is to deceive, the subject should as much as possible avoid telling lies, particularly spontaneously developed ones that tend to fall apart very rapidly. (ii) Control content. Stay on whatever line you have established as the information you wish to relay. Avoid talking about subjects outside of that area. (iii) Control quantity. Say very little more than what is necessary to communicate the information you want to convey. The more you say, the more opportunities there is for you to present potentially conflicting bits of data that can be used to establish a lack of credibility. 14 (iv) Volunteer nothing (source of effort). Credible information has to be drawn out by an interviewer, he expects to work for it. What you volunteer may be discarded or give away an obvious intent to push a particular message which could arouse suspicion. (v) Make your point and get out (limit time). If you are the walk-in, you should make the point that you have information, validate yourself to a sufficient degree and then get out so you can have greater control when you push the actual deception. The longer you talk to the snake, the more likely you will be bitten. (vi) Establish control (retain initiative). If you have sufficiently aroused the interest of an interviewer or interrogator, it would be best to make the target (the interrogator) work harder to get the information. The more work involved in getting it, the more the information obtained will be valued and defended by the target. A successful walk-in contact could be gauged by the willingness of the target to follow up and seek an additional meeting(s). Setting the time and place of subsequent contacts where the deceptive information is passed will allow the source to minimize factors which might reveal the deception. Outside of the embassy, a source can choreograph the remaining contacts for maximal effectiveness. Consistent with this, never go back to an embassy once the initial contact has been made. (vii) Be realistic. Presentation of deceptive information should be framed in a realistic context. Normal people are very uncomfortable with interrogation or focused questioning of almost any kind. The display that accompanies any offer of deceptive information should be consisted with what is normally seen by the target. This is an area where target expectancy is in fact very important. If you don't look like his usual customers, the poor fit with his existing schemas will heighten his suspicion about your intent and the validity of your information. Nonverbal cues may play a significant role in selling or invalidating a message. (viii) Scenario training is essential. Some data regarding identity may have to be divulged to validate you as a source. If you are to be successful, you should be trained in significant depth on any line of deception that may be involved. You must know the details of what you may talk about in depth and with multiple associations so that the information resides in memory as part of a normal web of knowledge as opposed to as a trivial and isolated fact. It is the third and fourth question on a particular subject that tends to reveal the usually very shallow nature of most attempts at deception. (ix) Scenarios must involve layers of deception. If you can't control the situation fully, it is necessary to provide people with a fall back position that allows them to confirm interrogator suspicion while at the same time stopping further inquiry. The longer one talks to a trained interrogator, the more likely he will make a mistake and be challenged on it. If a deception effort is to be successful, the target has to come away with some confidence in the data. Errors should be 15 planned for in the execution of the effort and there should be engineered within the scenario several fall back positions that will allow the source to be "discovered" while at the same time retaining his validity as a source.23 Research challenges What history of successes and failures do we have, and what can we learn from our own history (avoiding hindsight bias, if possible)? What use can we make of instances of deception among ourselves, such as the experiences of undercover agents, spies, the selective sharing of information depending on classification rating, from socially acceptable lies (e.g., about weight or age), and from deception that occurs as a function of differential social status?24 How does the behavior of the U.S. embassy personnel (or whomever the officers are) impact on how people offer information? Might someone who wants to evade detection systems be able to fake a temporary physical illness or mental illness in order to get past deception detection systems and then once inside (the embassy, the hospital, the office, whatever) have access to secure systems? How important are differential power and status between informer and officer? What role might social stigmatizing play? How does motive affect social negotiation? What are the American cultural stories (folk psychology) regarding truth and lies, and how do we value these in different situations? What are other cultural stories?25 Scenario #2 - Law enforcement threat assessment post 9/11 lacks triaging mechanisms 23 G. Haslett (personal communication, 2003.) Older Americans may be better than younger Americans at not revealing deception. See Parham, I. A., Feldman, R. S., Oster, G. D., & Popoola, O. (1981). Intergenerational differences in nonverbal disclosure of deception. Journal of Social Psychology, 113, 261-269. 25 Research by Charles Bond and colleagues includes projects relevant where nationals from 60 countries were surveyed about their beliefs concerning deception. The most commonly expressed opinion was that a liar can’t look you in the eye. In general, he has shown that judgments of deception from behavior occurs with about 55% accuracy across considerable situational variability, although sometimes this runs as high as 75% in a situation-dependent manner. From Bond, C. F., Berry, D. S., & Omar, A. (1994). The kernel of truth in judgments of deceptiveness. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 13, 523-534; Bond, C. F., & Atoum, A. O. (2000). International Deception. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 26, 385-395; Bond, C. F., Thomas, B. J., & Paulson, R. M. (in press). Maintaining lies: The multiple-audience problem. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology. 24 16 Law enforcement, especially the FBI and Secret Service, receive threats by phone, letters, and email. Responding in terms of false positives and false negatives has significant impact in terms of public safety and expending resources. How can these types of threats be validated? A current characteristic of this challenge is that there is (post 9/11) almost no triaging of threats: law enforcement operates under the felt need to follow up on almost all threat communications. Another challenge is that this threat information is often very short – as short as a few sentences. The brevity ensures that the message encapsulates very little information. Law enforcement and intelligence agents also must avoid “enriching” the threatener by making their reactions to a threat public, so that the threatener knows what the police/intell action will be and can plan accordingly. There is the need to acknowledge that people may have information that is false, but which they believe to be true. In these instances, research shows that the usual cues to deception are absent: there is no extra mental effort involved in maintaining the “lie,” and no apparent behavioral indices of deception.26 Categorize threats and prescript appropriate responses Determine a course of action depending on the specific combination of characteristics. Threats can vary in terms of: (i) Temporal (immediate/seconds vs longterm/years) (ii) Type (domestic violence; bomb; WMD) (iii) Intent of person making threat (iv) Ability to carry out threat (v) Vulnerability of target (vi) Nature of target (President vs shopping mall) (vii) Characteristics of threatening person (viii) Characteristics of person to whom threat is being communicated (ix) Characteristics of a likely deception 26 For an example of how assertions to false events can appear truthful, see Ceci, S. J. (2003). American Psychologist, 58, 855-864. 17 (a) Lies told for self-serving reasons (b) Lies told for other reasons, or to be altruistic (c Lies of omission and commission (d) Bald-faced lies vs exaggerations (e) Self-presentational lies (when liar cares about relationships with others) (f) Instrumental lies: for a particular purpose (g) Lying as acceptable in business negotiations or among politicians, or among the public generally.27 Analyses of narratives around threats have shown that there are predictors of the imminence and severity of the threat. These analyses might be useful for some of the threats and intelligence routinely received as described in this scenario.28 Research challenges What is the impact of our felt need to act secretly? In haste? How would our behavior be different if those needs were not present? How can we analyze these situations using the procedures of decision-making analysis that have been used elsewhere, for example, in the practice of medicine? Scenario #3 - Law Enforcement Interrogation and Debriefing Law enforcement routinely question witnesses and suspects regarding criminal activity. How do you tell if the individual is telling the truth, lying, or something in between? Acts of omission and acts of commission are both important to identify. Research challenges: Personal characteristics of good deception detectors Research with people who score well on at least three kinds of “lie detection” tests show that (i) even these people did least well on those tests with which they had least experience, indicating the operation of a significant effect of experience with the tests. It was suggested that good deceivers are like Olympic champions or Grand Masters in 27 In the World Values Survey (http://wvs.isr.umich.edu/), people in 35 out of 35 countries responded that they agreed with the statement that it sometimes justifiable to lie in one’s own self-interest. This had a positive correlation with educational level. One problem with cross-cultural analyses is that lying means different things in different cultures, and in some social situations, rudeness outweighs deception as a prohibited behavior. In the U.S., out of more than 500 trait terms, “liar” is rated as one of the most negative. (C. Bond, personal communication, 2003.) 28 Suedfeld, P., & Wallbaum, A. B. C. (1992). Modifying integrative complexity in political thought: Value conflict and audience disagreement. International Journal of Psychology, 26, 19-36; Suedfeld, P., & Bluck, S. (1988). Changes in integrative complexity prior to surprise attacks. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32, 626-635. 18 chess: they are good because they practice extensively.29 (ii) It also was found that about 80-90% of these individuals had unusual childhood experiences that might be understood as giving them an outsider point of view, and aware of emotionality early in life. (iii) There was some evidence that the ability to detect deception well correlated positively with (a) high scores on the general SAT, and (b) an interest in psychological phenomenon. Generally, detection of deception is better under lower motivational levels than under higher motivational levels.30 It was suggested that such individuals might be identified also as Personality Type D – that is, as individuals with a pervasively pessimistic view of life. This pessimism might give them a predilection for setting their threshold for determination of the deceptive content of a message at a relatively low level. It might also be considered that these individuals show a lower threshold for other kinds of detection tasks, such as motion detection tasks, and that the predilection for setting a low threshold, evident in those tasks, might be useful as a screening mechanism for good lie detectors.31 It should be recognized, however, that a trait psychology view – where individuals good at deception or deception detection are identified via personality characteristics and personality testing -- may not be useful: in this scenario it is not desired to know how hard it is for someone to lie, but whether someone is lying at that point in time. We can be informed by research on self-persuasion, which attempts to understand what makes us believe our own thoughts. The self-validation hypothesis is that attituderelevant thoughts that are perceived by oneself as valid have a strong impact on attitudes, and those that are perceived as invalid, do not. In support of this hypothesis, behavior that increases one’s confidence in one’s own thoughts has been shown to have a favorable impact on one’s attitude as towards those thoughts. For example, (i) if a thought comes to mind quickly, it is viewed as more credible (by our selves), and (ii) if people write a message with either their dominant or nondominant hand, they are more likely to believe what they wrote if it is written with the dominant hand.32 Research challenges: characteristics of normal conversations Research has shown that everyday conversations have the following characteristics:33 (i) Maxim of quantity: all necessary information about a topic is provided 29 Maureen O’Sullivan, The Diogenes Project. Forrest, J. A., & Feldman, R. S. (2000). Detecting deception and judge’s involvement: Lower task involvement leads to better lie detection. Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin, 26, 118-125; DePaulo, B. M., & Tang, J. (1994). Social anxiety and social judgment: The example of detecting deception. Journal of Research in Personality, 28, 1420153. 31 Roy Freedle (personal communication, 2003). 32 Brinol, P., & Petty, R. E. (in press). Self-validation processes: The role of thought confidence in persuasion. In G. Haddock & G. Mate (Eds.), Theoretical perspectives on attitudes for the 21st century. Philadelphia, PA: Psychology Press. 33 Grice, H. P. (1975). Logic and conversation. In P. Cole & J. L. Morgan (Eds.), Syntax and Semantics, Vol. 3: Speech Acts (p. 41-58). New York: Academic Press 30 19 (ii) Maxim of quality: the information given is true and not misleading (iii) Maxim of relation: information given is relevant to the goal of the conversation (iv) Maxim of manner: the communication is clear, brief, and orderly, and ambiguity and obscurity is avoided. Research might consider the extent to which these rules are gender-dependent and culture-dependent. Research challenges: the reliability of technological devices to detect deception34 (i) There are no data to support the assertion that anxiety related to deception results in measurable fluctuations in vocal recordings. (ii) Thermal imaging – reflecting changes in blood flow, particularly around the eyes – may be successfully combined with polygraph measures to enhance deception detection; the method is under development. (iii) Pupillometry, the measurement of changes in pupil size or movement, has been shown to identify guilty participants in Concealed Information Test studies, but this response can be manipulated voluntarily by the subject trying to be deceptive, and this response occurs in situations not involving deception, such as in conditions of test uncertainty. (iv) Event-Related Potential (ERP): The act of deception is built upon several cognitive processes, each of which is likely to be related to portions of the ERP signal. Three components of ERP (elicited by exposure to stimuli that have some task relevance35) most often have been investigated in deception research: two P300 components, P3b and P3a, and N4. Attention switching based on deception appears to be related to changes in the P3a, an early waveform in the anterior region of the brain; however, the P3a is coincident with general shifts in attention as well. Making the decision to lie is related to suppression in the P3b, the most frequently-used ERP measure of deception, but the P3b probably is involved in many types of higher cortical functions. The N4 component is sensitive to semantic incongruity, assumed to be part of the deception process, but obviously is part of other cognitive processing as well. The P300 is heavily impacted by characteristics of the stimuli, and there is 34 Most of this summary is from J. M. C. Vendemia, “Alternative Technologies for the Detection of Deception,” University of South Carolina. 35 Donchin, E., Smith, D. B. (1971). The contingent negative variation and the late positive wave of the average evoked potential. Electroencephalography & Clinical Neurophysiology, 29, 201-203. 20 evidence that certain individuals, such as those with PTSD36 or convicted murderers,37 do not produce a P300 related to recognition memory. (v) Functional magnetic resonance imaging is only beginning to be used in the analysis of deception. The changes in cerebral blood flow are assumed to reflect changes in cognitive load and demand.38 This technology is expensive and not applicable to most operational settings, however. Additional research challenges How do we find out if the informant has knowledge of which s/he is not aware? What pharmacological agents are known to affect apparent truth-telling behavior? What are the mechanisms and processes of learning to lie? Can these be acquired within relatively short periods of time (e.g., within a polygraph test session)? What are sensory overloads on the maintenance of deceptive behaviors? How might we overload the system or overwhelm the senses and see how it affects deceptive behaviors? What are the effects the personal characteristics of an examiner in polygraph test situations? Scenario #4 - Intelligence Gathering Many government agencies, including but not limited to DOD, FBI, DOE, CIA, and the Department of Treasury, gather “intelligence” of one type of another. A high priority is how to evaluate the authenticity of both the source of information and the information itself. Issues that need to be addressed include whether the person is who s/he says s/he is, whether s/he has access to the information s/he purports to have, and whether the information accurate. Systematic data collection: needs and challenges 36 McFarlane, A. C., Seber, D. L., & Clark, C. R. (1994). Abnormal stimulus processing in posttraumatic stress disorder. Biological Psychiatry, 34, 311-320. 37 Kiehl, K. A., Hare, R. D., Liddle, P. F., & McDonald, J. J. (1999). Reduced P300 responses in criminal psychopaths during a visual oddball task. Biological Psychiatry, 45, 1498-1507. 38 Spence, S. A., et al. (2001). Behavioural and functional anatomical correlates of deception in humans. Brain Imaging, 12, 2849-2853; Lee, T. M. C., et al. (2002). Lie detection by functional magnetic resonance imaging. Human Brain Mapping, 15, 157-164; Ganis, G., Kosslyn, Sm M., Stose, S., Thompson, W. I., & Yurgelun-Todd, D. A. (2003). Neural correlates of different types of deception: An fMRI investigation. Cerebral Cortex, 13, 830-836. 21 The enterprise would be more effective if data were collected and systematically reviewed on previous instances of the veracity of intelligence communications and their sources. The challenges here are: (i) Field officers or embassy personnel may become personally identified with a source, and protect the source even when they are of little use or are being deceptive. (ii) When the field officer or embassy personnel is transferred out, their source may become unavailable to others; it was the personal relationship of handler to source that made the source useful. (iii) There is more incentive for a source to provide some information than to provide verifiable information. (iv) If or when confirming evidence is available, it is likely to be swamped by other data, so that the isolated initial data are not properly evaluated, and considerable hindsight bias is operating. (v) The creation of databases is time-consuming and expensive, and the products are only as good as the data that are entered. These databases also must be made available to the people who need them, which necessitates an understanding of the local culture of these personnel (their needs, skills, and knowledge), and sufficient training for use must be implemented. General research challenges What are the working definitions of deception and deception detection? Should these include spinning, withholding, false memories, trickery, plausible denial statements, and dissociative memories and personalities? What are the relationship of these to error & lapses of memory, self-deception, Mass Psychogenic Illness, and malingering? Can we reasonably map types of lies, or conceptions of lies, to specific behaviors and to the likelihood of their occurrence to specific situations (e.g., lies about bombs in suitcases to airport security)?39 Once we do this, can we create categories and relationships among categories, and then test the validity of such across samples? Might it be possible to greatly increase the likelihood of success if we agree that different strategies are needed to different types of interactions? That is, to propose that the same methodology may not be appropriate for personnel selection as for surveillance or law enforcement or airport screening? 39 There is a multitude of modeling techniques available for this kind of an approach; it was suggested that connectionist models – e.g., J. L. McClelland & D. E. Rumelhart (1986), Parallel Distributed Processing. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. – might be considered. 22 Consider that deception systems co-opt perceptual systems for all the senses – vision, hearing, taste, smell, and touch. For example, when a primate signals the presence of a predator to his or her cohorts, the other animals in the group fail to employ their own perceptual systems (that is, they don’t wait to look for themselves, or smell for themselves, or listen for danger). The normal sensory systems are short-circuited. Might an individual’s ability to tune into signals from their own perceptual systems correlate with their ability to detect deception? Consider situations where the usual cues to deception are absent. Might we be more receptive to other cues to deception if they are not overshadowed by the obvious cues? For example, Secret Service personnel often are described as scoring better than the average in deception detection tests. Might they be good at this because they have learned to detect less obvious or more subtle cues – such as nonverbal cues that are evident in the behavior of individuals in crowds? How might this issue relate to “implicit measures” of deception detection, discussed earlier? Further investigation of the cross-cultural variations in physiological measures of emotionality. For example, it has been shown that psychopaths show less “fear potentiated startle,” a common measure of anxiety, than do normals.40 Further investigation is needed into methods of inoculation against confirmation biases. What are the important general receiver characteristics? That is, how does how you respond to me change the way I deceive? We often assume deceit involves malice and intent to harm. But it is as often motivated by compassion, dedication to good, or religious beliefs. How might deception behaviors be different depending on the underlying motivational system? If we are to construct a system for deception detection, how can we ensure that it “fails well?” (I.e., that it might stretch and sag before breaking, each component failure leaving the whole as unaffected as possible.) Research is needed into how interrogators might take advantage of some of the transference and counter-transference strategies used by psychotherapists. Research is needed about the relevant ethical and personal privacy issues in deception research that must be addressed? Is it possible to determine deceit in an individual by a change in the pattern of social networking and interactions that that individual displays, or in changes in patterns of friends? Lying is damaging to social networks, so if someone engaged in more 40 Patrick, C. J. (1994). Emotion and psychopathy: Startling new insights. Psychophysiology, 31, 319-330. 23 deception than usual, this should force a change in that network. This has been seen in retrospective analyses: can it be used prospectively? What are the implications of the apparent fact that lying is ubiquitous in some sense, and yet about 90% of those who are tested for security clearances receive them? What is the feasibility and practicality of using priming techniques and implicit measures of cognition and affect to determine veracity? These are relatively easy to administer and they provide immediate feedback.41 There is controversy about the extent to which such measures reflect familiarity versus veracity, at present. If the issue is one of whether people are who they say they are, there is a wide range of techniques available to assess this described in self-system research, which investigates how people conceive of themselves. Self can be accessed by others without awareness of the person, for example, by assessing reaction time when confronted with one’s name in a group of names.42 Participant list (partial) Anderson, Bill Band, Stephen Bennett, Michael Bond, Charlie Brandon, Susan Capps, Mike Demaine, Linda DePaulo, Bella Freedle, Roy Gerwehr, Scott Griffin, Jim Griffith, Doug Happel, Mark Hazlett, Gary Helms, Hollis Hubbard, Kirk Jessen, Bruce Kinscherff, Robert Lang, Eric Lassiter, Dan Mericsko, Bob 41 For a description of the Implicit Attitude Test and demonstration of how to use the test, see http://www.tolerance.org/hidden_bias/index.html. 42 Koole, S. L. & Pelham, B. W. (2003). On the nature of implicit self-esteem: The case of the name letter effect. In S. J. Spencer & S. Fein (Eds.), Motivated social perception: The Ontario symposium, Vol. 9. Ontario symposium on personality and social psychology. Mahwah, NJ, US: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates (pp. 93-116). 24 Mitchell, Bob Mitchell, James Morgan, Andy Morris, Jon Mumford, Geoff O'Sullivan, Maureen Pelham, Brett Petty, Richard Pinizzotto, Anthony Povinelli, Daniel Rosal, Carmel Rosmarin, David Strong, Gary Vendemia, Jennifer Zeffiro, Tom