! "# ATTACHMENT 4 Black and Veatch Report (2011) This Page Intentionally Left Blank WEST DIVIDE PROJECT FEASIBILITY ASSESSMENT PREPARED BY: BLACK & VEATCH BLACK & VEATCH CORPORATION JUNE 3, 2011 Table of Contents 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................... 3 1.1. Purpose/Objectives of Study..................................................................................................... 3 1.2. Study Results & Recommendations ........................................................................................ 3 2. BACKGROUND OF WEST DIVIDE PROJECT ...................................................................... 4 2.1. Congressional Authorization (CRSP) ..................................................................................... 4 2.2. Previous Studies and Configurations ..................................................................................... 5 3. CRYSTAL RIVER .............................................................................................................. 5 3.1. Placita Reservoir ........................................................................................................................... 5 3.2. 4,000 AF Placita Reservoir and Hydroelectric Feasibility.............................................. 6 3.3. Hydroelectric – Run of the River Options ............................................................................. 9 4. WEST DIVIDE CREEK AND DRY HOLLOW CREEK............................................................ 13 4.1. Upper and Lower Kendig Reservoirs .................................................................................. 13 4.2. Dry Hollow Reservoir – Pump Storage Project................................................................ 14 5. PUMP STORAGE HYDROELECTRIC – COLORADO RIVER ................................................ 15 5.1. Cost, Revenue, Feasibility, Environmental........................................................................ 15 6. CRYSTAL RIVER WATER DELIVERY OPTIONS................................................................. 17 6.1. Surface Canal & Pipeline.......................................................................................................... 17 6.2. Tunnel ............................................................................................................................................ 17 7. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................................... 18 7.1. West Divide Project Reconfiguration Alternatives ........................................................ 18 TABLES Table 1 Summary of Powerhouse Location Alternatives for 4,000 AF Placita Dam...... 7 Table 2 Summary of Economic Results for Powerhouse Location Alternatives for 4,000 AF Placita Dam ........................................................................................................... 7 Table 3A 4,000 AF Placita Dam Generation Estimate (125 cfs Capacity).......................... 9 Table 3B 4,000 AF Placita Dam Generation Estimate (150 cfs Capacity).......................... 9 Table 4 Summary of Alternatives for the Run of the River Option................................... 10 Table 5 Summary of Economic Results for Run of the River Alternatives..................... 10 WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 1 Table 6 Run of the River Generation Estimate......................................................................... 11 Table 7 Summary of Economic Results for Run of the River Alternative with Flow of 160 cfs..................................................................................................................................... 12 Table 8A Run of the River Generation Estimate (160 cfs) ................................................... 12 Table 8B Run of the River Generation Estimate (250 cfs) ................................................... 12 Table 9 Operating Pumped Storage Plants in Colorado ....................................................... 17 FIGURES Figure 1 Operating Ranges for Different Turbine Technologies.......................................... 8 APPENDICES Appendix A – Figures Figure 1 Crystal River Hydroelectric Projects Figure 2 Placita Reservoir Sites – Overall Plan Figure 2A Small Placita Reservoir – Site Plan Figure 2B 4,000 AF Placita Reservoir – Overall Plan Figure 3 Crystal River Flow Duration Curve above Avalanche Creek (Elevation 6920 ft) Figure 4 Run of the River Alternative (Final) Figure 5 West Divide Project, Colorado River Pump Station, Decreed Location, Garfield County, Colorado WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 2 1. Executive Summary 1.1. Purpose/Objectives of Study The West Divide Water Conservancy District (West Divide) and the Colorado River Water Conservancy District (River District) seek to complete an up to date analysis of certain components of the West Divide Project. As part of this analysis, Black & Veatch was asked to: 1. Evaluate the Operation and Feasibility of Hydroelectric Facilities. 2. Review and Update Cost Estimates for Kendig Reservoir. 3. Estimate Cost of Delivery Tunnel from the Crystal River to Kendig Reservoir. The Hydropower Feasibility Study (Study) entailed a screening level assessment of a pump storage project from the Colorado River to Dry Hollow Reservoir as well as a pre feasibility level assessment of a Crystal River hydropower project using both the run of the river and Placita Reservoir (or reservoir similar to Placita). 1.2. STUDY RESULTS & RECOMMENDATIONS The findings of the study are: Under current economic conditions, the hydropower projects are expected to have a relatively low financial rate of return. The hydroelectric projects would be most economically viable as part of a larger project. Placita Reservoir, as originally decreed, could be difficult to construct due to relocation of State Highway 133 and a county road, environmental concerns, and the inundation of several houses and other private property. A smaller Placita Reservoir at the original dam site could avoid many of these issues, but is deemed too small to be considered for construction. An alternative reservoir is a reduced Placita Reservoir with a capacity of approximately 4,000 acre feet located within the original inundation area of the decreed Placita Reservoir, but with the dam located upstream of all private property. The reduced Placita Reservoir is technically feasible from an engineering perspective; there are no known fatal flaws. Both Upper and Lower Kendig Reservoirs are technically feasible from an engineering perspective; there are no known fatal flaws. Lower Kendig Reservoir is more cost effective, but Upper Kendig Reservoir allows gravity flow discharge to the Highline Ditch. It is technically feasible from an engineering perspective to construct a tunnel from the reduced Placita Reservoir to Upper or Lower Kendig Reservoir; there are no known technical fatal flaws. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 3 The recommendations for future feasibility studies are: Periodically reassess potential hydroelectric facilities to evaluate the influence of changing power market conditions, especially in regards to the value of carbon credits (Crystal River) and ancillary services (Colorado River). Power prices may need to approximately double relative to construction and other costs for the hydroelectric facilities to become economically attractive. A more detailed study of river impacts and site geological conditions is needed to confirm the technical feasibility of the pumped storage alternative. Consider the current status of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the State of Colorado regarding the accelerated permitting process for small hydro. This process may facilitate the development of the Crystal River hydroelectric projects, making them more economically attractive to energy investors. Perform additional geotechnical investigations at the Upper Kendig Reservoir site to further understand design and construction considerations of the site. 2. BACKGROUND OF WEST DIVIDE PROJECT 2.1. CONGRESSIONAL AUTHORIZATION (CRSP) West Divide, a Colorado governmental entity, was organized in 1964 for the purposes of conserving and developing land and water resources within its boundaries. The West Divide district area includes portions of Garfield, Pitkin and Mesa Counties in Western Colorado. The following history of the West Divide Project is from the West Divide website. The West Divide Project was first envisioned in the late 1930s as a modest storage project to provide supplemental irrigation water to the West Divide Creek drainage. Subsequent studies for the West Divide Project anticipated the supply of water for municipal, domestic, industrial, and irrigation water supplies as well as for flood control, recreation, and fish and wildlife enhancement. An expanded service area extending beyond the West Divide Creek watershed was also anticipated in these later studies. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) included the West Divide Project in the Colorado River Storage Projects Act (CRSP) of 1956, which gave priority to the West Divide Project for the completion of planning reports, and named it as a participating project of the CRSP. West Divide was formed on April 22, 1964, to provide local project sponsorship and administration of the West Divide Project. A feasibility report published in 1966 proposed a plan for developing irrigation, municipal, and industrial water in the Crystal River drainage and along the Colorado River between Glenwood Springs and DeBeque. Under this plan, principal water storage was planned for development WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 4 on the Crystal River. In response to the feasibility report, Congress authorized construction of the West Divide Project in 1966. At the same time, opposition developed to constructing a reservoir on the Crystal River. For these reasons, West Divide and the USBR evaluated alternate configurations of the West Divide Project which would pump water from the Colorado River instead of diverting water by gravity from the Crystal River. In 1982, the USBR published a planning report on the West Divide Project that summarized these additional alternatives. 2.2. PREVIOUS STUDIES AND CONFIGURATIONS 1. U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Region 4, West Divide Project, Colorado Feasibility Report, March 1966. 2. Hydro Triad Ltd., Reformulation of the West Divide Project, prepared for CRWCD, WDCD, CWCB, July 1986. 3. David E. Fleming Company, A Review of the West Divide Project, prepared for the West Divide Water Conservancy District, January 1974. 4. U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, Data for Feasibility Design Placita Dam and Reservoir, West Divide Project, Colorado, Grand Junction, CO February 1964. 3. CRYSTAL RIVER 3.1. PLACITA RESERVOIR The original Placita Reservoir proposed by the USBR had a total capacity of 105,660 acre feet at a water surface elevation of 7,690 feet. The dam was to be a rolled earth and rock fill structure 301 feet high by 1,630 feet long. The dam for this reservoir was located on the Crystal River along State Highway 133 approximately 1.7 miles downstream of Chair Mountain Ranch. This size reservoir is no longer believed to be economically feasible due to mitigation costs associated with the relocation of State Highway 133 and a county road, environmental concerns, and the inundation of several houses and other private property. Therefore, the Placita Reservoir original size was deemed not feasible and was not investigated in this study. A smaller Placita Reservoir at the original USBR dam site was evaluated to determine if environmental and public issues could be minimized with a smaller storage facility. Initially, a water surface elevation of 7,440 was investigated. This water surface elevation substantially reduces the inundation of Highway 133, wetland areas and private property. However, the storage capacity at this elevation is only approximately 1,400 acre feet. If the water surface is increased to the next 40 foot contour (Elevation 7,480), the storage capacity is increased to almost 6,000 acre feet, however, the inundation of wetland areas and private property is more substantial at this higher elevation. Therefore, a reservoir water surface elevation of 7,440 is needed (storage capacity of 1,400 acre feet) to avoid substantial inundation of wetlands and WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 5 structures. This storage capacity is deemed too small to be practicable and a smaller Placita Reservoir at the original dam site was not investigated further. 3.2. 4,000 AF PLACITA RESERVOIR and HYDROELECTRIC FEASIBILITY The reduced Placita Dam Storage Alternative consists of an 80 foot high dam located on the Crystal River at Station 175 (Mile 3.3) as shown on Appendix A, Figure 1. The extent of the 4,000 acre foot reservoir is shown on Appendix A, Figure 2. This site was deemed more feasible than the original Placita Reservoir site because many of the land issues discussed in Section 3.1 above are avoided, for example: Affects to riparian and wetland areas would be reduced State Highway 133 would not require relocation; only County Road 3 No houses are expected to be relocated, only the USFS Bogan Flats Campground would require relocation The dam would be located on the Crystal River on County Road 3 less than 0.5 miles upstream of Chair Mountain Ranch. The base of the dam has an elevation of 7,560 feet resulting in a height of 80 feet. Based on 40 foot contour intervals, the reservoir total capacity at a spillway elevation of 7,630 feet is 4,650 acre feet and the surface area is 115 acres. For the purposes of this report, a usable reservoir volume of 4,000 acre feet was selected to evaluate hydroelectric opportunities. The reservoir would store water from the Crystal River basin. The spillway would likely be constructed on the left abutment with the outlet works located near the existing stream channel. Based on the 1966 USBR report, suitable materials for the earth and rock fill dam embankment could be obtained within the immediate vicinity of the dam site. County Road 3 would need to be relocated for approximately 0.8 miles and would likely need to be cut into the mountain slope on the south side of the reservoir. Approximately 75 percent of the reservoir area contains trees that would need to be cleared and disposed. No additional geotechnical information was obtained on the dam site for this study. Additional geotechnical studies are recommended to ascertain further requirements for feasibility and constructability. Hydroelectric Alternatives Three downstream powerhouse locations were investigated to determine which location would provide the greatest economic return. The first powerhouse location is at the base of the dam. The other two are located shortly downstream to take advantage of additional head. Because of the relatively mild river gradient of approximately one percent in this area, and as discussed further in Section 3 herein, hydropower plants with significant penstock lengths were not judged to be economical. The three alternatives are summarized in Table 1. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 6 TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF POWERHOUSE LOCATION ALTERNATIVES FOR 4,000 AF PLACITA DAM ALTERNATIVE NUMBER LOCATION (station) POWERHOUSE LOCATION (station) RESERVOIR WATER ELEVATION (ft) POWERHOUSE ELEVATION (ft) GROSS HEAD (ft) PENSTOCK LENGTH (ft) 175 175 175 175 1,050 1,275 7,640 7,640 7,640 7,560 6,500 6,240 80 1,140 1,400 50 87,500 110,000 DAM 1 2 3 Each of the three locations was analyzed using the following assumptions: Efficiency = 85% Generator Efficiency = 95% Transformer Efficiency = 99% Capacity Factor = 25% Powerhouse Cost = $3,500/kW Penstock Cost (48”) = $1,000/linear foot Penstock Headloss = 5.0 ft/1,000 linear feet The flow duration curve for the storage alternative is the purple line in Appendix A, Figure 3. Table 2 provides a summary of the results of the site selection investigation. Based on the above assumptions, the table shows that the base of the dam (Alternative No. 1) is the most economical location for the powerhouse. This will be the basis for the rest of the report. TABLE 2: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR POWERHOUSE LOCATION ALTERNATIVES FOR 4,000 AF PLACITA DAM ALTERNATIVE NUMBER NET HEAD (ft) DESIGN FLOW (cfs) POWER (kWh) POWERHOUSE COST PENSTOCK COST TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST(1)(2) PROJECT COST ($/kWh) 1 2 3 80 703 850 125 125 125 1,476,498 13,006,144 15,736,971 $2,359,700 $20,786,074 $25,150,410 $50,000 $87,500,000 $110,000,000 $2,409,700 $108,286,074 $135,150,410 $1.63 $8.33 $8.59 (1) Costs do not include reduced Placita Dam or interconnection costs. (2) Non construction costs are not included. Turbine Selection Based on the steep nature of the flow duration curve provided for this section of the Crystal River, it was important to select a turbine that is efficient over a large range of flows. Note that multiple unit powerhouses can produce greater generation, but are typically less economically WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 7 feasible for powerhouses in this size range. Based on the combination of large flow range and low head, an Ossberger turbine was selected. Ossberger turbines can operate down to 15% of rated flow and the efficiency is steady across that entire flow range. Ossberger turbines also cost less than other turbine technologies which helps to make the project more cost effective. Figure 1 shows how the design point fits within the operating range of the Ossberger turbine. Figure 1: Operating Ranges for Different Turbine Technologies Economic Analysis Based on the results of the site investigation and turbine selection, a detailed economic evaluation was performed for Alternative 1 which located the powerhouse at the base of reduced Placita Dam. A generation estimate was performed to determine the amount of energy that would be produced on an annual basis for units designed for both 125 and 150 cfs. These generation estimates were based on the flow duration curve for this section of the Crystal River (Figure 3) and utilized the following assumptions. Turbine Size = 676 kW (125 cfs) or 811 kW (150 cfs) Turbine Efficiency = 85% Generator Efficiency = 95% Transformer Efficiency = 99% WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 8 The results are shown in Tables 3a and 3b. TABLE 3A: 4,000 AF PLACITA DAM GENERATION ESTIMATE (125 CFS CAPACITY) FLOW (cfs) NET HEAD (ft) POWER (kW) PROBABILITY HOURS ENERGY (MWh) 125 100 50 23 19 80 80 80 80 80 676 541 271 124 103 Operational 33% 4% 20% 19% 9% 85% 2,890 350 1,752 1,664 788 Total Energy (MWh) 1,954 189 475 206 81 2,905 TABLE 3B: 4,000 AF PLACITA DAM GENERATION ESTIMATE (150 CFS CAPACITY) FLOW (cfs) NET HEAD (ft) POWER (kW) PROBABILITY HOURS ENERGY (MWh) 150 125 100 50 23 80 80 80 80 80 811 676 541 271 124 Operational 29% 4% 4% 20% 19% 76% 2,540 350 350 1,752 1,664 Total Energy (MWh) 2,060 237 189 475 206 3,167 Assuming a power value of $80/MWh, this translates to average annual revenues of approximately $230,000 and $250,000 for the smaller and larger powerhouses respectively. Assuming $50,000 in annual operating cost, the net annual incomes are $180,000 and $200,000. Assuming 40% for non construction costs results in total project costs of $3.4 million and $4.0 million. The undiscounted paybacks for these powerhouses would be 19 and 20 years. A discounted payback which accounts for the cost of money will result in a somewhat longer payback period. Holy Cross Energy indicated that only single phase power extends from Highway 133 along County Road 314 into Marble, so some line extension may be required for this project. 3.3. HYDROELECTRIC – RUN OF THE RIVER OPTIONS Site Selection The Run of the River Hydroelectric Alternative considered five possible combinations of dam and powerhouse locations on the Crystal River. Elevations and distances were calculated based on the river profile shown in Appendix A, Figure 1. The flow duration curve at the confluence with Avalanche Creek was used to evaluate all alternatives. Each alternative assumed that a WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 9 20 foot high concrete diversion dam on the Crystal River would be utilized. The five alternatives are summarized in Table 4. TABLE 4: SUMMARY OF ALTERNATIVES FOR THE RUN OF THE RIVER OPTION ALTERNATIVE NUMBER DAM LOCATION (station) POWERHOUSE LOCATION (station) RESERVOIR WATER ELEVATION (ft) POWERHOUSE ELEVATION (ft) GROSS HEAD (ft) PENSTOCK LENGTH (ft) 1 2 3 4 5 175 175 328 328 650 1,050 1,275 1,050 1,275 700 7,580 7,580 7,450 7,450 7,140 6,500 6,240 6,500 6,240 6,960 1011 1340 881 1210 180 87,500 110,000 72,200 94,700 5,000 Each of the five alternatives was analyzed using the following assumptions: Turbine Efficiency = 85% Generator Efficiency = 95% Transformer Efficiency = 99% Capacity Factor = 25% Powerhouse Cost = $3,500/kW Penstock Cost (48”) = $1,000/linear foot Penstock Headloss = 5.0 ft/1,000 linear feet Table 5 provides a summary of the results of the site selection investigation. Based on the above assumptions, the table shows that locating the diversion dam and powerhouse at the steepest part of the river is, not surprisingly, the most economical alternative (Alternative No. 5). The profile on this alternative is shown on Appendix A, Figure 1. A new flow duration curve was developed for this specific site (Appendix A, Figure 4). This alternative will be the basis for the rest of this report. TABLE 5: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR RUN OF THE RIVER ALTERNATIVES ALTERNATIVE NUMBER NET HEAD (ft) DESIGN FLOW (cfs) POWER (kWh) POWERHOUSE COST PENSTOCK COST TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST(1)(2) PROJECT COST ($/kWh) 1 2 3 4 5 643 790 589 737 155 125 125 125 125 125 11,895,299 14,626,126 10,904,795 13,635,622 2,869,683 $19,010,751 $23,375,087 $17,427,755 $21,792,091 $4,586,251 $87,500,000 $110,000,000 $72,200,000 $94,700,000 $5,000,000 $106,510,751 $133,375,087 $89,627,755 $116,492,091 $9,586,251 $8.95 $9.12 $8.22 $8.54 $3.34 (1) Costs do not include reduced Placita Dam or interconnection costs. (2) Non construction costs are not included. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 10 Turbine Selection Based on the steep nature of the flow duration curve, it was important to select a turbine that is efficient over a large range of flows. Similar to the storage alternative in Section 3.2 above, based on the combination of large flow range and low head, an Ossberger turbine was selected. Economic Evaluation Based on the results of the site investigation and turbine selection, a detailed economic evaluation was performed for Alternative 5 which located the diversion dam and powerhouse at the steepest section of the Crystal River. A generation estimate was performed to determine the amount of energy that would be produced on an annual basis. The generation estimate was based on the flow duration curve for the “Above Avalanche Creek” section of the Crystal River and utilized the following assumptions. The results are shown in Table 6. Turbine Size = 1,310 kW Turbine Efficiency = 85% Generator Efficiency = 95% Transformer Efficiency = 99% TABLE 6: RUN OF THE RIVER GENERATION ESTIMATE FLOW (cfs) NET HEAD (ft) POWER (kW) PROBABILITY HOURS ENERGY (MWh) 125 110 75 50 19 155 155 155 155 155 1,310 1,153 786 524 199 Operational 32% 3% 5% 5% 18% 63% 2,803 263 438 438 1,577 Total Energy (MWh) 3,673 303 344 230 314 4,864 After the initial economic evaluation, an attempt was made to optimize the potential power generation by increasing the rated flow for the turbine. It was determined that a rated flow of 160 cfs would provide a higher amount of power generation for a similar construction cost. The results of the economic analysis for the 160 cfs turbine are shown in Table 7. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 11 TABLE 7: SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC RESULTS FOR RUN OF THE RIVER ALTERNATIVE WITH FLOW OF 160 CFS ALTERNATIVE NUMBER NET HEAD (ft) DESIGN FLOW (cfs) POWER (kWh) POWERHOUSE COST PENSTOCK COST TOTAL CONSTRUCTION COST(1)(2) PROJECT COST ($/kWh) 6 140 160 3,317,724 $5,302,298 $5,000,000 $10,302,298 $3.11 (1) Costs do not include reduced Placita Dam or interconnection costs. (2) Non construction costs are not included. Since the resulting unit cost was lower for 160 cfs, a 250 cfs alternative was also evaluated. These detailed calculations are shown in Tables 8a and 8b. TABLE 8A: RUN OF THE RIVER GENERATION ESTIMATE (160 CFS) FLOW (cfs) NET HEAD (ft) POWER (kW) PROBABILITY HOURS ENERGY (MWh) 160 130 100 55 24 140 140 140 140 140 1,515 1,231 947 521 227 Operational 28% 3% 3% 9% 18% 61% 2,453 263 263 788 1,577 Total Energy (MWh) 3,716 323 249 411 358 5,057 TABLE 8B: RUN OF THE RIVER GENERATION ESTIMATE (250 CFS) FLOW (cfs) NET HEAD (ft) POWER (kW) PROBABILITY HOURS ENERGY (MWh) 250 200 160 130 100 55 38 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 2,117 1,694 1,355 1,231 1,101 466 322 Operational 22% 3% 3% 3% 3% 9% 8% 51% 1,927 263 263 263 263 788 701 Total Energy (MWh) 4,080 445 356 323 289 367 226 6,086 Assuming a power value of $80/MWh, these alternatives translate to average annual revenues of approximately $400,000 and $490,000 respectively. Assuming $100,000 in annual operating costs, the net annual incomes are $300,000 and $390,000. Assuming 40% for non construction costs results in a total project costs of $14.4 and $17.3 million. The undiscounted payback for these powerhouses would be 36 and 35 years, which is essentially identical for this level of study. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 12 Holy Cross Energy indicated that of the three hydropower projects, this project was of the most interest because its size and proximity to three phase power of sufficient capacity makes it readily integratable into their system. Currently Holy Cross is purchasing renewable power such as this in the $80 to $90/MWh range, consistent with the assumption of this study. From their point of view, future energy pricing is largely dependent on future valuation of carbon credits. 4. WEST DIVIDE CREEK and DRY HOLLOW CREEK 4.1. UPPER AND LOWER KENDIG RESERVOIRS Upper and Lower Kendig Reservoirs are located on West Divide Creek 12 to 14 miles south of Silt, Colorado. Water in West Divide Creek is primarily used for irrigation of agricultural lands. The reservoirs were previously proposed because the distribution of annual flows does not coincide with the distribution of annual demand. The reservoirs would store the early summer peak flows which would allow late season irrigation demands to be met more frequently; thus, shortages are reduced and yields are improved. The storage could also be used to supply non irrigation demands. Only one of the reservoirs would be constructed. Lower Kendig Reservoir is located at the original Kendig dam site proposed by the USBR (1966). The dam is located downstream of the Highline Ditch diversion. Upper Kendig Reservoir was proposed in the 1986 Hydro Triad report. The Upper Kendig Reservoir dam site is located approximately 1.7 miles upstream of the Lower Kendig dam site. The Upper Kendig dam site was selected so the stored water could be released by gravity to the Highline Ditch. The Highline Ditch is a major irrigation ditch in the West Divide Creek basin. The 1986 Hydro Triad report found that no major deposits of hard rock suitable for rockfill dams are present in the area. Therefore, only an earthfill dam and a roller compacted concrete (RCC) dam were evaluated for the Upper and Lower Kendig dams by Hydro Triad. The materials for construction for an earthfill dam or RCC dam could likely be developed locally from the alluvium, debris flows, or landslide. Hydro Triad concluded that the geology for the Upper Kendig site is similar to the Lower Kendig site, but recommended that preliminary geotechnical investigations be performed on the Upper site to confirm feasibility of the site. The preliminary geotechnical investigations would include topographic and geologic mapping of the dam alignment and reservoir, core drilling, sampling, hydro geological testing in holes along the dam axis, and evaluation and testing of local sources of construction materials. Hydro Triad laid out three different dam sizes at each of the two Kendig sites. The reservoir capacities at Lower Kendig were 25,000 acre feet, 18,000 acre feet, and 11,000 acre feet. The reservoir capacities at Upper Kendig were 18,300 acre feet, 13,900 acre feet, and 6,100 acre feet. The intermediate size embankment dam at Lower Kendig (18,000 acre feet) is the same WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 13 size embankment that was studied extensively by the USBR in 19821. The preferred storage size based on demands and available streamflow is the 18,000 acre foot reservoir. The Lower Kendig reservoir would require relocation of a buried natural gas pipeline. Both reservoirs would require relocation of the county road. The 1986 Hydro Triad report found that an RCC dam would cost 30 to 50 percent more than an earthfill embankment for the 18,000 acre foot dam size. The Hydro Triad report also made the following conclusions: Several reservoirs in addition to Upper and Lower Kendig reservoirs were studied. The most efficient storage sites were Upper and Lower Kendig because they controlled the greatest drainage areas. Upper Kendig Reservoir allows discharges to gravity flow to the Highline Ditch. The most efficient reservoir size (considering acre foot of storage vs. acre foot of yield) was 8,000 acre feet (100 percent efficiency). The efficiency gradually dropped as the reservoir size increased to an efficiency of 55 percent for a 25,000 acre foot reservoir. Lower Kendig is the most cost effective storage location. Small reservoirs at the Lower Kendig site are more cost effective than larger reservoirs. In 1986 dollars (Denver CCI of 3,503), the 18,000 acre foot reservoir (embankment dam) cost at Lower Kendig was $20.5 million and the cost at Upper Kendig was $33.2 million. Adjusting these costs for inflation to 2011 dollars (Denver CCI of 6,835), the cost for Lower Kendig would be approximately $40 million and the cost for Upper Kendig would be $65 million. 4.2. DRY HOLLOW RESERVOIR – PUMP STORAGE PROJECT In this section, a pump storage alternative from the Colorado River to Dry Hollow Reservoir is evaluated. Both a pipeline along the originally planned approximately 16 mile Dry Hollow Feeder Canal and a 7 mile long tunnel from the Colorado River to Dry Hollow Reservoir were evaluated. While pumped storage projects are net consumers of energy with overall efficiencies of about 75%, their economic feasibility is derived from one or more of the following considerations: Energy Peak energy prices are significantly higher than off peak prices Capacity The power grid requires readily dispatchable energy Ancillary Services – The power grid needs stability 1 U. S. Bureau of Reclamation, “Planning Report on the West Divide Project, Colorado,” May 1982. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 14 Often pumped storage is considered in conjunction with base load projects (e.g. nuclear) to provide peak power or with sporadic sources such as wind, which tends to generate more energy at night when less power is required. The diversion point for the pumped storage alternative is located on the Colorado River approximately 3 miles downstream from New Castle, Colorado. A diversion of 250 cfs was adjudicated for this site. Because the associated upper storage reservoir, Dry Hollow, is about 580 feet (6,120 – 5,540) above the elevation of the Colorado River, the possibility of pumped storage between these two water sources exists. As a practical matter, however, the distance between the sources greatly exceeds the typical range for economically feasible pumped storage sites. An initial assessment of pumped storage is often conducted by evaluating the L/H ratio, i.e. the distance between the water sources (L) divided by the elevation difference (H). Economically feasible sites tend to have an L/H ratio of less than 10. Of all the active pumped storage sites in the United States in 1992, none had an L/H lower than 39.2 This is because long pressure pipes between the water sources both are costly and also consume valuable pressure head. The L/H ratio for a 7 mile tunnel project would be about 60. A pressure pipe along the originally planned approximately 16 mile Dry Hollow Feeder Canal would have an L/H of about 150. Neither of these two projects can be expected to be economically feasible under existing conditions. Therefore, no further investigations for this alternative were completed. 5. PUMP STORAGE HYDROELECTRIC– COLORADO RIVER 5.1. COST, REVENUE, FEASIBILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL As discussed above, pumped storage feasibility is dependent on a low L/H ratio. This is normally accomplished by connecting the two water sources by a relatively short, steep penstock. Using the Colorado River as a water source, this could be achieved by constructing an upper reservoir (Jolley Mesa Reservoir) on the mesa immediately above the left (south) bank of the river. From a topographic perspective, this reservoir could be created as shown on Appendix A, Figure 5 using an earth embankment. The resulting L/H is 980/5000, or approximately 5, which is generally considered a good ratio. A slightly lower L/H could be achieved by placing a ring reservoir closer to the intake site, but the additional cost of the reservoir is expected to exceed the value of the additional energy. 2 American Society of Civil Engineers, Task Committee on Pumped Storage, Compendium of Pumped Storage Plants in the United States, New York, 1993. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 15 Pumped storage projects typically have a target production period of 4 to 12 hours during a daily cycle, corresponding to periods of peak energy prices. Assuming an 8 hour generation period, 16 hours is available for pumping. At 250 cfs, the total storage volume required in the Jolley Mesa Reservoir would be V = (16 hrs) * (250 cfs) * (3600 sec/hr) / (43,560 sq ft/ac) = 330 acre feet Assuming 10% energy loss in the penstock and 87% overall generation efficiency, the generator size would be: P = 0.87(500)0.9(980) 11,700 40 MW Forty megawatts represents about the smallest practical size for pumped storage projects, which typically range from 100 to 1,000 MW. However, projects of this size do exist, often because the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) allows license exemptions for municipalities for projects up to 40 MW. Assuming that project economics would be driven by energy pricing and that the peak/off peak differential is as follows: Peak: $120/ MW hour Off Peak: $60/MW hour The net annual revenue from the project would be approximately: R = (8 hrs/day * 365 days/yr * 40 MW * $120/MW hr) – (16 hrs/day * 365 days/yr * 20 MW / (0.9*0.87) * $60/MW hr) $5,100,000 Assuming $400,000 in annual operating costs would result in a net annual revenue of $4.7 million. Assuming construction costs of $3,000/kW and 40% non construction costs results in an overall project cost of $168 million (costs include diversion, powerhouse, piping, tunnel, and reservoir). The undiscounted payback would be approximately 28 years. Holy Cross indicated that their current contract with Excel Energy covers their energy load following needs (generation and energy demand are closely matched), so that a pumped storage project would not be attractive to them today. Larger utilities such as Excel may see greater value in a project of this type due to their own internal needs to balance wind and other intermittent sources of energy within their large system. There are three operating and one proposed pumped storage plants in Colorado: WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 16 TABLE 9. OPERATING PUMPED STORAGE PLANTS IN COLORADO NAME YEAR BUILT L/H POWER SELLER CAPACITY (MW) Flatiron Cabin Creek Mount Elbert 1954 1967 1981 26 4 7 WAPA Excel WAPA 9 300 200 The Phantom Canyon project is proposed. 6. CRYSTAL RIVER WATER DELIVERY OPTIONS 6.1. SURFACE CANAL & PIPELINE The original West Divide Project proposed using the Huntsman Canal to divert water from the Crystal River to West Divide Creek. In addition, the Four Mile Canal and Siphon and the Avalanche Canal and Siphon were proposed to divert water from the Crystal River to the West Divide Creek basin. The canals were originally laid out as a gravity flow surface canal which would allow water to be conveyed to the lower Kendig Reservoir. An additional option for transferring water from the Crystal River to the Kendig Reservoirs is by a gravity flow tunnel along an alternate alignment as described in the next section. 6.2. TUNNEL As an alternative to the Huntsman Canal in the original West Divide Project, a single tunnel was investigated. The tunnel would begin at reduced Placita Reservoir (low water elevation of 7,560 ft) and end at Upper Kendig Reservoir (high water elevation of 7,200 ft). The tunnel’s hydraulic grade line slope would be 0.3% over its 23 mile length. It was assumed up to 300 cfs would be transferred through the tunnel. A finished tunnel diameter of 7 feet (84 inches) was selected resulting in a velocity of approx. 8 ft/sec at 300 cfs. The following assumptions were used to evaluate the tunnel and determine the cost: Consistent, hard rock. Cover on the tunnel ranges from 900 feet to 3,700 feet. A tunnel boring machine (TBM) would be used to drill the tunnel. The TBM would drill a 10 foot diameter tunnel. The tunnel would be concrete lined to a finished diameter of 7 feet. TBM average progress per day of 100 feet. The tunnel contract would be split into three contracts (each approximately 7.7 miles). The total construction time would be approximately 18 months if all three contracts were executed concurrently. Vertical shafts are included for ventilation and tunnel access. Tunnel costs are based on the finished tunnel diameter. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 17 Based on the above assumptions, a tunnel construction cost of $25/diam in/ft, a 30% construction contingency, and a 25% engineering, permitting and approvals contingency, the resulting total tunnel cost would be approximately $395 million. 7. FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT RECONFIGURATION ALTERNATIVES Under existing economic conditions, the undiscounted payback of the hydroelectric alternatives would range from approximately 19 years to 36 years. Placita Reservoir, as originally decreed, could be costly to construct due to relocation of State Highway 133 and a county road, and mitigation expenses associated with the inundation of wetlands, several houses, private property and Bogan Flats campground. A smaller Placita Reservoir at the original dam site is deemed too small to be considered for construction. A reduced Placita Reservoir is a 4,000 acre foot reservoir located within the original inundation of the large Placita Reservoir, but the dam is located upstream of Chair Mountain Ranch. The reduced Placita Reservoir is technically feasible from an engineering perspective; there are no known fatal flaws. Both Upper and Lower Kendig Reservoirs are technically feasible from an engineering perspective; there are no known fatal flaws. Lower Kendig Reservoir is more cost effective, but Upper Kendig Reservoir allows gravity flow discharge to the Highline Ditch. It is technically feasible from an engineering perspective to construct a tunnel from the reduced Placita Reservoir to Upper or Lower Kendig Reservoir; there are no known fatal flaws. We recommend the following actions to further assess the feasibility of the West Divide Project and its components: Reassess projects in the near future based on current power market conditions, especially in regards to the value of carbon credits (Crystal River) and ancillary services (Colorado River). Energy prices will likely need to approximately double relative to construction and other costs for these projects to become economically attractive. Prepare a more detailed study of river impacts and site geological conditions to confirm the technical feasibility of the pumped storage alternative. Consider the current status of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) between the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the State of Colorado regarding the accelerated permitting process for small hydro. This process being in place and running efficiently would speed the development of the Crystal River projects, making them more economically attractive to energy investors. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 18 Perform additional geotechnical investigations at the Upper Kendig Reservoir site to confirm feasibility of the site. WEST DIVIDE PROJECT – Feasibility Assessment Page 19 Crystal River Hydroelectric Projects Elevation (ft) Crystal River Elevation Profile 8000 7975 7950 7925 7900 7875 7850 7825 7800 7775 7750 7725 7700 7675 7650 7625 7600 7575 7550 7525 7500 7475 7450 7425 7400 7375 7350 7325 7300 7275 7250 7225 7200 7175 7150 7125 7100 7075 7050 7025 7000 6975 6950 6925 6900 6875 6850 6825 6800 6775 6750 6725 6700 6675 6650 6625 6600 6575 6550 6525 6500 6475 6450 6425 6400 6375 6350 6325 6300 6275 6250 6225 6200 6175 6150 6125 6100 6075 6050 6025 6000 Res NWS El. 7640 Turbine El. 7550 ft Run of River Diversion Dam El. 7140 ft. Penstock L=5000 ft. Turbine El. 6960 ft Avalanche Power Plant Turbine El. 6500 ft. Nettle Creek Turbine El. 6240 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5 20 20.5 21 21.5 22 22.5 23 23.5 24 24.5 25 25.5 26 26.5 27 27.5 28 28.5 29 29.5 30 30.5 31 31.5 32 Distance from Beginning (mi) Figure 1