Northeastern Passenger Rail 
Service
Initial Business Case –Final 


Disclaimer
All figures within this Initial Business Case represent preliminary results. Forecasted costs, revenues and ridership 
figures are at a high level and will be subject to refinement as analysis of the Northeastern passenger rail service
proceeds to the Updated Business Case phase, and later analyses in the Business Case lifecycle. 

Northeastern Passenger Rail 
Service
Initial Business Case –Final 

v
Contents
Introduction
5
Background
6
Business Case Overview
6
The Case for Change
8
Introduction
9
Case for Change
9
Problem Statement
9
Key Drivers
9
Strategic Vision 17
Strategic Outcomes and Benefits 17
Transportation 17
Quality of Life 17
Economic Development 17
Environmental Sustainability 17
Alignment with Broader Policy 18
Proposed Solution 18
Relevant Experience 18
Investment Options 20
Introduction 21 

vi
Option Development 21
Option Definition 21
Business as Usual 21
Terminus Options 21
Service Level Options 24
Parallel Bus Service 27
Summary of Options 27
Strategic Case 29
Introduction 30
Strategic Evaluation 30
Transportation 30
Quality of Life 33
Economic and Regional Development 35
Sustainable Environment 35
Strategic Case Summary 36
Economic Case 39
Introduction 40
Assumptions 40
Costs 42
User Impacts 43
External Impacts 45 

vii
Economic Case Summary 46
Financial Case 48
Introduction 49
Capital Costs 49
Operating and Maintenance Costs 51
Financial Case Summary 53
Deliverability and Operations Case 57
Introduction 58
Project Delivery 58
Project Sponsor 58
Major Project Components 58
Environmental Assessment Requirements 62
Operations during Construction 63
Operations and Maintenance 63
Roles and Responsibilities 63
Service Plan 63
Project Dependencies 64
Rail Operating Agreements 64
Other Partner and Stakeholder Negotiations 64
Station Access 64
Conclusion 65 

viii
Business Case Summary 66
Introduction 67
Investment Review 67
Strategic Case 67
Economic Case 67
Financial Case 68
Deliverability and Operations Case 68
Next Steps 68 

1
Executive Summary
Northern Ontario has limited passenger transportation options that increase the cost of travel and restrict 
residents’ mobility to, from and between northern communities. The primarily auto-oriented transportation 
network is particularly challenging for those who are unable to drive, choose not to drive, or do not have access to 
a vehicle. As a result, the quality of life for residents in northern communities, including Indigenous communities, is 
impacted due to limited access to services and businesses located across northern Ontario and in the Greater 
Golden Horseshoe (GGH), such as hospitals and other specialized medical services. Limited travel alternatives for
the businesses and communities in Northern Ontario also limits the potential for economic development in the 
north.
A former passenger rail service provided by the Ontario Northland Transportation Commission (Ontario Northland), 
called the Northlander, provided a passenger rail transportation connection between Cochrane, North Bay and 
Toronto; however, the service was discontinued in 2012. Inter-community transportation service in Northern 
Ontario is currently primarily provided through a bus network operated by Ontario Northland. Some residents in 
Northern Ontario have expressed a preference for rail service instead of the existing bus service, which may be 
related to increased space and the ability to move around during travel. The bus service also operates within mixed 
traffic on the road network, which exposes the service to disruptions on the road network and decreases travel 
time reliability. In addition, the heavy reliance on personal and commercial vehicles, as well as inter-community 
passenger transportation services on the Highway 11 corridor, limits the resiliency of the northern transportation 
system, due to the limited or non-existent detour routes.
To address these transportation challenges, Ontario Northland is proposing to reinstate passenger rail service 
between Northern Ontario and the GGH. The proposed rail service will draw upon the experiences of operating the 
former Northlander to provide a service that better serves the needs and travel demands of northern residents.
Metrolinx is supporting Ontario Northland by conducting analysis to assess this proposal through an Initial Business 
Case. The Initial Business Case is a decision-making tool employed to assess the strategic and economic rationale 
for an investment, and the financial, deliverability and operational considerations required to implement it.
This Initial Business Case assesses six service pattern options and three potential northern termini for the service. 
The combination of service levels and termini resulted in 17 options for analysis, which are summarized in the table 
below. 

2
Service Northern 
Terminus1
Description
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, seven days per week
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Some onboard amenities (light snacking, sandwiches, beverages, and app pre-ordering service)
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay
• Two trips per direction per day, seven days per week
• Nighttime and daytime departures from Northern Ontario
• Some onboard amenities (light snacking, sandwiches, beverages, and app pre-ordering service)
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Daytime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service
B: Timmins • One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
• Service to North Bay only for the first ten years of service (similar service characteristics of Option 
1A), then extending to Timmins or Cochrane afterward
C: Cochrane
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, four to seven days per week depending on the season
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Business Case Results
Strategic Case
The Northeastern Passenger Rail Service will provide additional transportation options for travel to, from and between
northern communities. This passenger rail service will supplement the existing air and highway travel options with 
an option that is comfortable, accessible, and resilient against congestion and inclement weather. 
Rail service will also support economic development by improving connections for northern communities to the 
GGH. All options will:
• Support tourism travel to Northeastern Ontario, especially peak season travel to Muskoka District; and
1 All options have as their southern terminus Toronto Union Station 

3
• Provide a reliable inter-community transportation connection to North Bay, which is the fourth largest 
municipality in Northern Ontario.
Further extensions from North Bay will offer additional travel alternatives to more remote communities including 
Indigenous communities and extend benefits further north. The extension to the Timmins region will serve the fifth 
largest municipality in Northern Ontario.
Options that provide additional service frequencies will also offer additional amenities, flexibility and reliability for 
northern residents.
Economic Case
All options will generate economic benefits, however, these benefits are outweighed by the associated costs of 
delivering the service. 
As a consequence, the proposed options each result in a negative net present value and a benefit-cost ratio that is 
less than 1.0, largely attributed to costs for traveling over large and less densely populated areas. The benefit-cost 
ratio over the 60-year evaluation period ranges between 0.23 to 0.52 in the conservative scenario, and between 
0.41 to 0.74 in the optimistic scenario.
Options that increase service frequency or extend service further north generate greater total benefits, however, 
these benefit increases do not outweigh the additional costs to deliver the service. Of the two possible northern 
terminus extension, Timmins outperforms Cochrane in terms of both net economic benefits, as well as benefit cost￾ratio.
Financial Case
From a financial perspective, all options result in incremental operating costs that outweigh the incremental 
revenue of the project. As a result, all options will require a subsidy to sustain operations. The operating cost 
recovery ratio over the 60-year evaluation period ranges between 0.15 to 0.33 under the conservative scenario and 
0.22 to 0.40 in the optimistic scenario. The requirement of an operating subsidy is typical of inter-community 
transportation projects in North America, particularly for those with a focus on providing coverage to underserved 
areas with fewer reliable transportation alternatives.
At the start of operations in the mid-2020s, the service is projected to require an annual operating subsidy of 
between $3.6M to $20.5M in the conservative scenario, and between $2.8M to $17.2M in the optimistic scenario. 
By 2041, the required annual subsidy will increase to $4.1M to $23.9M in the conservative scenario, and between 
$3.2M to $19.9M in the optimistic scenario.
Options that provide greater frequency or extend the service terminus do not generate sufficient ridership and 
revenue to offset the additional operational costs. 

4
Deliverability and Operations Case
All options propose infrastructure improvements primarily within existing rail corridors. Options that extend service 
to North Bay require less infrastructure work and would be easier to deliver compared to service to 
Timmins/Cochrane. The construction of a new station in the Timmins region may require an environmental 
assessment approval before work can begin.
Operationally, the options that propose improved operating efficiency across the infrastructure provide additional 
flexibility in scheduling train meets and enhance service reliability. The Enhanced Service options and Twice Daily 
Service options provide improved reliability, but these features come at very high cost and may not be justifiable 
given the population and potential ridership.
The key project dependency for all options is agreement with the Canadian National Railway (CN) to allow for the 
operation of passenger rail service on the Bala and Newmarket Subdivisions between Toronto and North Bay.
Next Steps
Once an option is selected for further project development, an updated business case (UBC) will begin assessing the 
preferred option at a more detailed level of analysis further refining project scope, benefits and costs. Similarly, 
Metrolinx uses a business case process for specific GO Transit and other major transit projects as noted in Figure 1. 
Analysis to be undertaken through the detailed design phase includes:
• Train modelling to confirm the operability of the service pattern and schedule;
• More detailed service planning, including consideration of parallel and connecting bus services, to 
maximizing connectivity, while rationalizing service levels;
• Refinement of modelling parameters as new data becomes available as well as the project proceeds, 
including:
o Capital, operating and maintenance costs;
o External benefits (e.g., GHG benefits, congestion benefits, connectivity of the northern region 
benefits);
o Impacts of customer amenities on ridership and benefits;
• Further analysis of rolling stock to determine the option that best meets customer needs, while providing 
value for money;
• Negotiations with CN to secure track access for the service, and confirm the scope of any corridor 
infrastructure required to operate the service; and
• Design of corridor, station and shelter infrastructure, and development of more detailed cost estimates. 

5
1
Introduction 

6
Background
Ontario Northland is an agency of the Province of Ontario responsible for providing efficient, safe and reliable 
transportation services in Northern Ontario. Current services include inter-community motor coach services 
connecting Northern Ontario to urban centres that include Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg. Motor coach services 
also connect passengers to hospitals and post-secondary institutions, and integrate with Metrolinx/GO Transit and 
other private carriers for a seamless transportation experience. Passenger rail services are provided by Ontario 
Northland connecting the town of Cochrane to Moosonee and the First Nations communities of the James Bay 
Coast. Rail freight services are also provided that connect to Class one railways to ship goods across North America. 
Through this mandate, and as a natural extension to current services, Ontario Northland is considering the 
reinstatement of a passenger rail service between Toronto Union Station in the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH)
and Northern Ontario (the “Northeastern Passenger Rail Service”).
Metrolinx is an agency of the Province of Ontario responsible for providing leadership in the co-ordination, 
planning, financing, development and implementation of an integrated transit network in the GGH. Metrolinx also 
interacts and works with other transit agencies in the development of transit related policies and options. In recent 
years, Metrolinx has developed a business case framework as a tool to support evidence-based decision-making for 
investments in the regional transit network.
In support of the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service, Ontario Northland and Metrolinx are jointly developing and 
assessing the business case for offering regular passenger rail service between Northern Ontario and Toronto.
Business Case Overview
Business case analyses are required by the government for all projects that exceed $50M in capital costs. As 
projects develop in scope and construction, business cases are completed to define the rationale and requirements 
for delivering said investment. As shown in Figure 1, the Initial Business Case is the first of four business cases 
completed in an investment’s lifecycle. It reviews variations of the investment and selects a preferred option for 
further design and analysis. 

7
Figure 1: Metrolinx Business Case Development Process 

8
2
The Case for Change 

9
Introduction
This chapter defines the case for change, which is used to guide the evaluation of investment options considered 
within this business case.
Case for Change
Problem Statement
Northern Ontario transportation options are based primarily on auto-oriented travel modes. This restricts residents’ 
mobility to, from and between northern communities, especially for those who are unable to drive, choose not to 
drive, or do not have access to private vehicles. The availability of other modes of transportation, such as transit, 
inter-community bus or rail service, or air service, are also limited. Highway 11 north of North Bay is susceptible to 
road closures, with few alternative routes available for detours. As a result, the quality of life for residents in 
northern communities, including northern Indigenous communities, is impacted due to limited access to services 
and businesses located across Northern Ontario and in the GGH. The lack of strong connections between the GGH 
and the businesses and communities in Northern Ontario also limits potential economic development opportunities 
in the north.
In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic has greatly impacted air service in the North, that may never return to pre￾COVID service levels. There is also a focus on enhancing tourism options to promote Ontario’s ‘stay-cation’ 
approach to economic recovery. A passenger rail service would provide significant value to both of these focus 
areas.
Key Drivers
Travel Behaviour
Due to the distance between northern communities and the GGH, there are few daily commuters between the two 
regions. Instead, travel is primarily driven by occasional trips. Major trip purposes include:
• Family and social visits;
• Tourism, shopping and entertainment;
• Access to specialized services (e.g. medical, educational, government) and
• Business and work-related activities.
In particular, access to medical services is identified as a key priority. The Ontario Ministry of Health provides 
Northern Health Travel Grant for northern residents who must travel more than 100 km one-way to access services 
that are not available locally. Data from the program between 2014 and 2015 reported over 38,000 trips from 
Cochrane, Timiskaming and Nipissing Districts to destinations along the Northeastern Rail Corridor. Residents of 
Cochrane and Timiskaming Districts accounted for over 80% of the grant applications, with the most frequent 
destinations being Timmins (33% of trips), North Bay (19% of trips) and the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area
(28% of trips).
The majority of travel is completed via the highway system, using private vehicles or Ontario Northland bus 
services. The highway corridor is the main route for transport trucks between Ontario and western Canada. The 
highway route also traverses the snowbelt regions east of Georgian Bay and north of North Bay that frequently 
experience heavy snowfall and snowsqualls. The geography of the region results in long distance trips between 
communities that result in driver fatigue. These combined factors contribute to increased transportation safety risk 
for travellers in Northern Ontario.  

10
There are also air travel options, including regularly scheduled commercial flights between Toronto and North Bay
operated by Air Canada, and between Toronto and Timmins operated by Air Canada and Porter Airlines. There is 
also a seasonal service between Toronto and Gravenhurst operated by Porter Airlines. There are no direct flights 
between northern communities, other than a handful of flights between First Nation communities in the Far North. 
While air travel offers the shortest in-vehicle travel time, the user costs of this travel mode are also higher, 
especially for last minute or emergency trips. Air service is also susceptible to delays and cancellations as a result of 
poor weather.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Ontario Northland has temporarily reduced the frequencies of its bus services, 
while airlines have suspended operations on some routes. Porter Airlines suspended all operations, while Air 
Canada suspended its Toronto-North Bay service. Ontario Northland services have been partially restored, while 
restoration of air service have not been announced.
Passenger Transportation Service Provision
GO Transit, an operating division of Metrolinx, provides regional transit services within the GGH. Rail services 
extending north from Toronto include three commuter rail lines which terminate at Barrie (Allandale Waterfront 
station), Richmond Hill (Gormley station, and future Bloomington station) and Whitchurch-Stouffville (Lincolnville 
station). GO Transit supports its core rail service with bus service that provides options for off-peak and counter￾peak trips, as well as travel to other regional destinations and more remote communities. The extent of GO bus 
service is Barrie on the west shore of Lake Simcoe and Beaverton on the east shore of the lake.
Inter-community passenger transportation service in Northeastern Ontario is mainly provided via rail and bus 
routes operated by Ontario Northland. Passenger rail service currently consists of the Polar Bear Express between 
Moosonee and Cochrane. A previous passenger rail service between Cochrane and Toronto, called the Northlander, 
was terminated in 2012. Bus service consists of a network of bus routes serving major communities in Northern
Ontario. This includes four daily bus trips in each direction between Toronto and North Bay, serving local 
communities along the way. Passengers to and from destinations further north must transfer at North Bay or 
Sudbury. The Ontario Northland passenger transportation network is shown in  

11
Figure 2: Ontario Northland Passenger Services 

12
Some residents in Northern Ontario have identified challenges in using the existing bus service. The bus service also 
operates within mixed traffic on the road network, which exposes the service to disruptions on the road network 
and decreases travel time reliability. 
Ontario Northland has partnered with GO Transit to explore potential improvements to connectivity between the 
GGH and Northern Ontario. This includes a “train-meet” service in 2018 and 2019, where Ontario Northland buses 
connected with Barrie line trains at Allandale Waterfront station to provide services to Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, 
Huntsville and North Bay. The service operates throughout the summer, providing northbound trips on Friday and 
return trips on Sunday.
Transport Infrastructure and Technology
The main transportation artery for Northeastern Ontario is Highway 11, which begins in Barrie and serves the 
communities of Orillia, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Huntsville, North Bay, Temiskaming Shores, Englehart,Matheson, 
and Cochrane. It also serves the residents of Timmins via a connection to Highway 101. Through much of 
Northeastern Ontario, Highway 11 is the only road with limited opportunities for detour routes. The transportation 
network has limited resiliency to major disruptions on the highway system, such as congestion or closures due to 
collisions, construction or inclement weather. In 2019, the Ontario traveller information service (Ontario 511) 
reported over 130 incidents along Highway 11 between Orillia and Matheson, with the majority between North Bay 
and Englehart.
The rail corridor between Toronto and Timmins or Cochrane (the “Northeastern Rail Corridor”) is approximately 
460 miles (740 km) long and consists of five main railway subdivisions owned by Metrolinx, Ontario Northland, and 
Canadian National Railway (CN). Table 1 provides an overview of the Northeastern Rail Corridor.
Table 1: Northeastern Rail Corridor
Subdivision Mileage (length) Limits Owner
Bala
0.0 – 15.9 (15.9 miles / 25.6 km) Union Station to Doncaster Diamond Metrolinx
15.9 – 88.9 (73.0 miles / 117.5 km) Doncaster Diamond to Washago CN
Newmarket 98.9 – 225.2 (126.3 miles / 203.3 km) Washago to North Bay CN
Temagami 0.0 – 138.5 (138.5 miles / 222.9 km) North Bay to Englehart Ontario Northland
Ramore
0.0 – 85.7 (85.7 miles / 137.9 km) Englehart to Porquis Junction Ontario Northland
85.7 – 112.4 (26.7 miles / 43.0 km) Porquis Junction to Timmins (South Porcupine) Ontario Northland
Devonshire 0.0 – 28.1 (28.1 miles / 45.2 km) Porquis Junction to Cochrane Ontario Northland
The Northeastern Rail Corridor is primarily used for freight, with limited passenger rail services. CN operates freight 
rail services, on the Newmarket and Bala Subdivisions. Passenger rail operators include GO Transit, which operates 
the Richmond Hill commuter rail service within the southern end of the Bala Subdivision, and VIA Rail, which 
operates between Toronto and Washago as part of its trans-Canada rail service. On segments owned by freight 
railway companies, movement of freight traffic is typically prioritized over those of passenger trains. This presents a  

13
challenge in maintaining on-time performance of passenger rail services, especially on single track segments of the 
corridor.
Government Policy and Planning
The initial business case was developed in response to the 2019 Ontario Budget commitment to review initiatives to 
meet the transportation needs in Northern Ontario, including options for passenger rail service, as part of a broader 
plan to support northern communities.
Demographics
The Ontario Population Projections Update, 2019-2046 from the Ministry of Finance predicts uneven growth among 
the communities on the Northeastern Rail Corridor. Growth is concentrated at the south end of the corridor and
tapers off to stable or declining populations at the north end. A stabilization in population is forecast for Nipissing, 
while a slight decline is forecast for Timiskaming and Cochrane census divisions. There will also be a transition 
towards an older age structure within the communities, with a 148% increase in the population aged 80 and over in 
northern communities. As a proportion of the population in northern communities, those aged 65 or older will 
increase from 22% of the total population in 2019 to 30% of the total population in 2046, while those aged 80 or 
older will increase from 5% of the total population in 2018 to 13% of the total population in 2046. Many Indigenous 
communities living in the North also report observing greater proportion of background health complications, 
which requires access to medical supports, typically available in urban centres including the GGH. Table 2 shows a 
summary of the population along the Northeastern Rail Corridor.
Table 2: Population along the Northeastern Rail Corridor (thousands)
Census District
2019 2046 % change
Total 65-79 80+ Total 65-79 80+ Total 65-79 80+
Cochrane 81 11 3 76 11 9 -6% 1% 146%
Timiskaming 33 6 2 31 5 4 -6% -12% 122%
Nipissing 87 14 5 87 14 11 0% 0% 136%
Parry Sound 45 10 3 51 11 8 14% 12% 186%
Subtotal – Northern Communities 246 41 13 245 41 32 0% 2% 148%
Muskoka 66 13 4 80 16 13 20% 21% 184%
Simcoe 528 75 23 732 114 79 39% 53% 243%
Subtotal – Central Communities 594 88 28 812 130 92 37% 48% 233%
York 1,181 143 45 1,552 225 157 31% 58% 247%
Toronto 2,966 326 137 3,735 467 317 26% 43% 131%
Subtotal – GTA Communities 4,147 469 182 5,287 692 474 27% 48% 160% 

14
Census District
2019 2046 % change
Total 65-79 80+ Total 65-79 80+ Total 65-79 80+
Total 4,987 597 222 6,344 863 597 27% 45% 168%
* Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
As the population ages, they will require greater access to specialized medical and long term care services; 
however, there will also be a greater proportion of residents who are not able or not willing to drive, especially for 
long distance trips to urban centres in the GGH where these services are located. While some limited motor coach
and air services are available, adding rail service would increase the number of alternatives available to residents 
along the corridor, especially important given the decline in air services in the North.
Economic Activity
The economic development of Northern Ontario is a priority for both the provincial and federal governments, with 
a number of programs established to support the development of businesses and communities in the north. The 
draft Northern Ontario Transportation Plan, released in December 2020, includes more than 60 actions to get more 
people moving, improve travel options for people in remote communities and support economic growth in the 
North. 
In addition, the tourism industry is a significant component of the regional economy of Northern Ontario. Data from 
the Ontario Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries indicates that the tourism industry 
contributes $735M to the GDP and provides 12,949 jobs for regions along the Northeastern Rail Corridor2
. In 2017, 
Tourism Region 12 (Parry Sound and Muskoka Districts) recorded an estimated 4.6M person visits, while Tourism 
Region 13a (Nipissing, Timiskaming and Cochrane Districts) accommodated an estimated 4.0M person visits3
. The 
tourism industry is highly seasonal, particularly for Tourism Region 12, where 54% of visits occur between July and 
September. This leads to capacity constraints on transportation infrastructure to the region and delays for travellers 
during the peak season.
Partner and Stakeholder Input
Advocacy groups for residents and businesses have expressed support for the return of passenger rail service to 
Northern Ontario. The Ontario Chamber of Commerce recommended improved northern passenger transportation
service as part of their 2018 report on Ontario’s transportation needs. A 2019 survey conducted by the 
Northeastern Ontario Rail Network found broad support for the reintroduction of passenger rail, and a stated intent 
to use the service once restored.
2 The Economic Impact of Tourism in Ontario and its Tourism Regions; Ministry of Tourism, Culture and Sport; 
November 12, 2013
3 Regional Tourism Profiles, Ministry of Heritage, Sport, Tourism and Culture Industries 

15
Another survey was carried out by MTO in October and November of 2020, to better understand needs and 
preferences for travel along the rail corridor. More than 7,000 responses were received from residents in key 
corridor-adjacent communities, with overwhelming support for a renewed northeastern rail service. 
The results indicate the main purposes of travel reported by respondents for the longest trips along the corridor 
were visiting friends or family (40%) and leisure (23%). However, trips for medical purpose was found higher for the 
respondents residing outside the GGH area. Preferences were also expressed for arrival at destination mid-day.
Partners and stakeholders in the north expect any rail service to extend beyond North Bay and provide greater 
coverage in Northern Ontario. The geography north of North Bay includes significant distances and limited 
transportation infrastructure that poses challenges for travel by northern residents. A passenger rail service 
connecting communities north of North Bay would provide additional travel alternatives, and would not be 
impacted by highway closures.
Summary
Table 3 summarizes the key issues and considerations, both internal and external, for the current and future state 
of transportation in the Cochrane / Timmins to Toronto corridor that shapes the opportunity and supports the case 
for investment in inter-community passenger transportation on the Northeastern Rail Corridor. 

16
Table 3: Summary of Key Drivers
Driver How does this Driver influence the 
problem/opportunity?
What is the impact of not addressing the 
problem/opportunity?
Internal
Travel Behaviour
• Travel between northern communities and the 
GGH is primarily driven by occasional trips. 
Travel is completed primarily using auto-based 
modes.
• Trips will continue to be made by auto-based 
modes, resulting in poor connectivity, 
increased emissions and safety risk, as well as 
reduced travel time reliability.
Transport Service 
Provision
• Inter-community bus service is provided 
between northern communities and GGH. 
Buses operate in mixed traffic and travel times 
are affected by disruptions in the road 
network.
• Inter-community bus travel time reliability will 
be negatively affected, especially during peak 
travel periods in the summer, and during 
inclement weather in the winter.
Transport 
Infrastructure and 
Technology
• Most travel, including transit, uses the existing 
highway infrastructure.
• There are existing rail corridors connecting 
Toronto, Timmins and Cochrane that are 
primarily used for freight rail traffic. 
• There is an opportunity to leverage existing 
infrastructure to operate passenger rail 
service.
• The highway remains the only transportation 
link for passengers, while the existing rail
corridor will continue to be used primarily for 
freight.
• Residents have limited options for alternate 
travel arrangements if there are disruptions on 
the highways, such as congestion or closures 
due to collisions, construction or inclement 
weather.
External
Government 
Policy and 
Planning
• The 2019 Ontario Budget identified a 
government priority to improve transportation 
in Northern Ontario, including exploring 
options to reinstate passenger rail in the 
north.
• The 2020 draft Northern Ontario 
Transportation Plan includes more than 60 
actions that will get more people moving, 
improve travel options for people in remote 
communities and support economic growth in 
the North.
• Alternative options to improve northern 
transportation would need to be pursued, 
such as the construction of new highways or 
widening of existing highways.
Demographics
• Increase in the proportion of residents over 65 
years old, especially within the over 80 years 
old demographic. As the population ages, 
residents may be less willing or able to drive to 
access services, especially for long distance 
trips to the GGH.
• Some residents are unhappy with the existing 
travel alternatives (personal vehicle, bus, 
airplane) and will continue to express 
frustration when using the current modes of 
transportation. 
Economic Activity
• The economic development of Northern 
Ontario is a priority for both the provincial and 
federal governments. Economic growth would 
be supported by improved connections to the 
population and economy of the GGH. 
• Inadequate transportation connections 
between Northern Ontario and the GGH limit 
the potential for economic growth in the 
region.
Partner and 
stakeholder Input
• Organizations representing residents and 
business interests have expressed support for 
improved transportation in Northern Ontario.
• The travel demands of residents and the 
business communities would not be met. 

17
Strategic Vision
Ontario Northland and Metrolinx envision that the proposed passenger rail service would provide a direct, safe, 
reliable and resilient inter-community transportation link between Northern Ontario and the GGH to meet the 
needs of northern residents, businesses and communities. 
Strategic Outcomes and Benefits
Achieving the Strategic Vision will generate benefits in four key outcome areas.
Transportation
Achieving the Strategic Vision will enhance the transportation options for travel between Northern Ontario and the 
GGH. The additional inter-community transportation connection will provide residents, especially those unable or 
unwilling to drive or take the bus, an alternative option to complete long distance trips between Northern Ontario 
and the GGH. The inter-community transportation service will also be more resilient to congestion and disruptions 
on the road network and will provide greater travel time certainty for users, while remaining affordable and 
financially accessible to residents.
Quality of Life
Achieving the Strategic Vision will improve the quality of life for residents of both Northern Ontario and the GGH. 
Northern communities, including Indigenous communities, will have improved access to specialized services, 
businesses and entertainment options that are located across Northern Ontario and within the GGH. In particular, 
residents will have another option in addition to the bus to access medical services that are not available in the 
north. Meanwhile, the GGH will have improved access to the tourism and recreational services available in 
Northern Ontario.
Economic Development
Achieving the Strategic Vision will encourage economic and regional development in the north by connecting the 
economies of Northern Ontario and the GGH. An improved transportation connection would support the free flow 
of people, expertise and ideas between the two regions and accelerate the development of an innovation-based 
economy around the North Bay Regional Innovation Centre. Improved connections would also provide greater 
access for GGH residents to the businesses and services of Northern Ontario, such as the tourism industry, 
encouraging the growth and development of the northern economy. 
Environmental Sustainability
Achieving the Strategic Vision will promote environmental sustainability by providing an inter-community 
passenger transportation alternative for long distance trips between northern communities and the GGH. The 
provision of an attractive mass transportation option will divert trips that would have otherwise been completed 
using personal vehicles, lowering the total vehicle-kilometres travelled and may result in overall reduction in
transportation-related emissions if enough auto trips are diverted to inter-community passenger transportation. 

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Alignment with Broader Policy
Table 4 summarizes key items from plan and policy documents that align with the expansion of rail services to 
Northern Ontario.
Table 4: Summary of Alignment with Broader Policy and Plans
Stakeholder Organization strategy, 
policy or plan Link to Problem/Opportunity Relationship 
Type(s)
Government of 
Ontario
2019 Ontario Budget
• The 2019 budget prioritized support for Northern Ontario, 
including investigating options to improve transportation 
connections.
Synergistic
Connecting the North: A 
draft transportation plan 
for Northern Ontario, 
2020
• The plan proposes 67 actions to help build a modern and 
sustainable transportation system for people in Northern Ontario.
• The plan identified challenges in the passenger transportation 
options in Northern Ontario, and the opportunity for 
improvements.
• The plan specifically supports the completion of an IBC for 
passenger rail service in northern Ontario and a track audit to 
confirm the infrastructure requirements to implement passenger 
rail service.
Synergistic
Government of 
Canada
Prosperity and Growth 
Strategy for Northern 
Ontario
• The Strategy identified the lack of infrastructure in Northern 
Ontario, which results in high transportation costs for the region.
• The Strategy recommends investments in community and regional 
infrastructure to support and attract businesses.
Rationalization
Ontario 
Chamber of 
Commerce
Moving Forward: Towards 
a Strategic Approach to 
Ontario’s Transportation 
Needs
• The report calls for the reinstatement of passenger rail service in 
northern Ontario to provide connectivity for northern residents 
and support economic and tourism development opportunities.
Synergistic
Proposed Solution
Ontario Northland and Metrolinx propose to implement a passenger rail service along the Northeastern Rail 
Corridor, with variations on the frequency, amenities and northern terminus of the service investigated through this 
business case analysis. The service would operate using existing infrastructure, with minor upgrades as needed to 
ensure the safety and reliability of the service. The scope and scale of upgrades would be dependent on the level of 
service offered. 
The introduction of rail service will provide enhanced transportation options for residents in the north, increase 
inter-community ridership for trips between Northern Ontario and the GGH, and reduce automobile vehicle 
kilometres travelled on the corridor.
Relevant Experience
Experience in planning the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service will be drawn from the operations of the previous 
Northlander rail service, as well as current operations of Polar Bear Express passenger train and bus service. Key 
changes in the operating environment since the termination of Northlander service in 2012 include: 

19
• Population growth in Ontario within the GGH and the Muskoka area;
• Greater demand and preference for travel via transit due to accessibility requirements;
• Changes in trip purposes, such as increased medical and student trips;
• Increased congestion on the road network, particularly during peak season travel to cottage country in the 
Muskoka region;
• More frequent weather events that lead to highway closures, such as snowstorms and flooding;
• A wider feeder bus network operated by Ontario Northland, which includes service east to Ottawa and 
west to Winnipeg;
• Enhanced cooperation between Metrolinx and Ontario Northland to jointly offer services, including the 
Muskoka pilot, Pearson airport connector, bi-level passenger coach refurbishment, and transportation 
procurements; and
• The potential for lasting post-COVID impacts, which may include a potential population increase in 
Northern Ontario associated with increased home-office/remote work, and greater demand for vacations
within the province  

20
3
Investment Options 

21
Introduction
This chapter describes investment options for consideration and evaluation in the Strategic, Economic, Financial, 
and Deliverability and Operations Cases. 
Option Development
Options were developed through collaboration between Ontario Northland, Metrolinx and the Ministry of 
Transportation. Options varied in both the proposed northern terminus of the service, as well as the level of service 
offered. The following sections define the options considered in this business case.
Option Definition
Business as Usual
Under the business-as-usual scenario, Metrolinx and Ontario Northland will continue to operate passenger 
transportation services within the GGH and Northern Ontario respectively.
Metrolinx will continue to advance the expansion of GO rail services, including two-way all-day service to Allandale 
Waterfront GO station in Barrie and extension of peak period, peak direction service to the future Bloomington GO 
station in northeastern Richmond Hill.
Ontario Northland will continue to operate its bus network to serve communities in Northern Ontario and connect 
to major urban centres such as Toronto, Ottawa, and Winnipeg, as well as the Polar Bear Express passenger train 
between Moosonee and Cochrane.
Terminus Options
This business case contemplates three route variants for northeastern rail service. This includes an initial phase of 
service between Toronto and North Bay, and ultimate service extensions to Timmins or Cochrane. While the former 
Northlander service operated between Toronto and Cochrane, Timmins was identified as an alternative terminus of 
the rail service due to its higher ridership potential. Terminating the service at Timmins would provide direct access 
to a larger population base and amount of economic activity, relative to the former terminus at Cochrane. To 
maintain connectivity for communities further north, the current bus connection will be provided between Timmins 
and Cochrane, as well as to the Polar Bear Express. The schedules of the proposed rail service, the Polar Bear 
Express and the bus connection will be coordinated to minimize wait times for passengers. The current electronic 
ticketing platform will be used to integrate passenger rail and bus passengers for a seamless customer experience.
Figure 3 shows the proposed routing and stops for the contemplated options. 

22
Figure 3: Northeastern Passenger Rail Service Options
Service to North Bay
Five options contemplate providing service between Toronto and North Bay as an interim phase. Based on past 
service times, it is estimated that the service will have an in-vehicle journey time of 5 hours and 35 minutes and 
serve seven stops in population centres between Toronto and North Bay, although this is subject to change. Table 5
provides a summary of the proposed stops. 

23
Table 5: Toronto-North Bay service station stops
Station Census Subdivision Population (2016) Destinations / Major Connecting Services
Toronto Union Station Toronto 2,731,571 Toronto Central Business District and connections to GO 
rail and TTC subway networks
Langstaff
Richmond Hill 195,022
Connection to regional destinations via Highway 407 GO 
bus service, including Pearson International Airport
Gormley Park and ride lot adjacent to Highway 404
Washago Severn 13,477 Connections to VIA Rail’s trans-Canada rail service
Gravenhurst Gravenhurst 12,311
Small population centres within Ontario’s cottage 
country.
Bracebridge Bracebridge 16,010
Huntsville Huntsville 19,816
North Bay North Bay 51,553 Connections to other parts of Northern Ontario via the 
Ontario Northland bus network and private carriers
Service to Timmins
Six options contemplate providing rail service along the route between Toronto and Timmins. Based on past service 
times, it is estimated that extension of the service to Timmins adds approximately 6 hours and 15 minutes, plus a 
30 minute layover in North Bay, for a total additional journey time of 6 hours and 45 minutes4
. This would result in 
an estimated 12 hour and 20 minute in-vehicle journey time between Timmins and Toronto. 
The extension provides rail service to an additional five station stops compared to the Toronto to North Bay phase. 
Table 6 provides a summary of the additional stations.
Table 6: North Bay-Timmins service station stops
Station Census Subdivision Population (2016) Destinations / Major Connecting Services
Temagami Temagami 802
Temiskaming Shores 
Temiskaming Shores 9,920
Cobalt 1,128
Englehart Englehart 1,479
Matheson Black River-Matheson 2,438
Timmins 
(South Porcupine) Timmins 41,788 Connections to other parts of Northern Ontario via the 
Ontario Northland bus network
4 Results from a recent test train run indicate it may be possible to reduce the in-vehicle travel time between North 
Bay and the northern terminus, but these results are preliminary and are under review. Estimates of travel times 
will be re-evaluated in the next stage of detailed planning and design work. 

24
Service to Cochrane
Six options contemplate providing rail service along the route between Toronto and Cochrane. The route length and 
in-vehicle journey times are estimated to be similar to the Toronto-Timmins option. The Toronto-Cochrane route 
adds five additional stops after North Bay, four of which are shared with the Toronto-Timmins route. Table 7
provides a summary of the additional stations.
Table 7: North Bay-Cochrane service station stops
Station Census Subdivision Population (2016) Destinations / Major Connecting Services
Temagami Temagami 802
Temiskaming Shores 
Temiskaming Shores 9,920
Cobalt 1,128
Englehart Englehart 1,479
Matheson Black River-Matheson 2,438
Cochrane Cochrane 5,321 Connections to the Polar Bear Express service to 
Moosonee
Service Level Options
The business case also contemplates a variety of rail service options along the Northeastern Rail Corridor. Three 
options vary the level of service and amenities provided (Options 1 to 3), and following further review, an additional 
three variations on Option 1 were developed to optimize the operating costs of the service (Options 4 to 6).
Option 1: Reinstated Service
Option 1 contemplates reinstating rail service at levels comparable to the previous Northlander train. The service 
will provide one daily trip in each direction six days per week (Wednesday excluded). This option will provide 
minimal amenities for customers. There will be no on-board sales of food or beverages, and station facilities will not
allow for on-site ticket vending. Passengers would be offered opportunities to purchase tickets on-board or 
electronically. 
For service terminating at North Bay, the service pattern will provide:
• A southbound trip with an early morning departure from North Bay and arriving in Toronto by late morning; 
and
• A northbound trip with an evening departure from Toronto and arriving in North Bay around midnight.
A modified schedule is proposed on Sundays to serve demand from cottage country returning to Toronto. The 
southbound trip from North Bay will be scheduled for an early afternoon departure, arriving in cottage country by 
late afternoon and arriving in Toronto by late evening. After a brief layover, the northbound trip from Toronto will 
depart and arrive in North Bay in the early morning, prior to the Monday morning departure. 

25
The schedule is designed to allow northern residents, including indigenous communities living along the corridor, to 
conduct business and attend appointments within the GGH, as well as accommodate cottage country traffic during 
the weekends. Sample trips that can be completed using the proposed rail service include:
• A North Bay resident can travel to Toronto in the morning, attend a medical appointment in the afternoon 
and depart Toronto in the evening to return home;
• A Bracebridge resident can travel to Richmond Hill in the morning and transfer to a Highway 407 GO bus to 
arrive at Pearson before noon for an afternoon flight; or
• A Toronto resident can depart after work on Friday to spend the weekend in Huntsville and return home in 
the late afternoon on Sunday. 
For northward extensions, the assumed timetable will maintain the proposed service schedule between North Bay 
and Toronto. The service pattern under Option 1B will provide:
• A southbound trip with a nighttime departure from Timmins or Cochrane, arriving in North Bay by early 
morning and arriving in Toronto by late morning; and
• A northbound trip with an evening departure from Toronto, arriving in North Bay around midnight and 
arriving in Timmins or Cochrane by early morning.
On Sundays, the southbound departure will leave Timmins or Cochrane in the morning, while the return trip arrives 
in Timmins by late morning on Monday.
Trips enabled by the service to Timmins or Cochrane include:
• A Temiskaming Shores resident can travel overnight to Timmins; attend medical appointments during the 
day and return home on the nighttime departure from Timmins;
• A Matheson resident can travel overnight and arrive in Toronto in the late morning; attend an appointment 
in the afternoon and return home at the end of the business day; or
• A Toronto resident can travel overnight to Cochrane, conduct a full day of business and return home on the 
overnight train back to Toronto.
Option 2: Enhanced Service
Option 2 will deliver enhanced service on the Northeastern Rail Corridor. Two train trips will be added on 
Wednesday to provide daily service on the corridor, seven days per week. This option will also provide additional 
passenger amenities, including light snacking and beverage sales on board the trains.
Option 3: Twice Daily Service
Under Option 3, an additional trip per day will be introduced in each direction on the Northeastern Rail Corridor. 
Additional passenger amenities will also be provided, similar to Option 2.
The service to North Bay would also provide:
• A northbound trip departing Toronto in the morning and arriving in North Bay by early afternoon; and
• A southbound trip departing North Bay in the late afternoon and arriving in Toronto at night.  

26
With the twice daily service, the Sunday trip times do not need to be shifted to serve traffic from cottage country. A 
consistent schedule will be operated seven days a week. 
Additional trips enabled by the Twice Daily service pattern include:
• A North Bay resident can travel to Toronto after work; stay overnight and complete a full day of meetings in 
Toronto; and then return home to North Bay after the business day.
• A Gravenhurst resident can travel to Richmond Hill after work; transfer to the Highway 407 GO bus at 
Langstaff GO station; and arrive at Pearson at night for a red-eye flight.
Similar to other extension options above, the service schedules between Toronto and North Bay will be maintained 
if Option 3 service levels are extended further north. The extension would add:
• A southbound trip with a morning departure from Timmins or Cochrane, arriving in North Bay by late 
afternoon, and arriving in Toronto at night; and
• A northbound trip with a morning departure from Toronto, arriving in North Bay by early afternoon, and 
arriving in Timmins or Cochrane at night.
Trips enabled by extending the Twice Daily Service to Timmins or Cochrane would include:
• An Englehart resident can travel overnight to North Bay, attend a medical appointment in the morning and 
return home in the early afternoon; or
• A Richmond Hill resident can leave in the morning and arrive in Temagami in the early evening, go camping 
for the weekend and return to Richmond Hill on an early afternoon train.
Option 4: Daytime Service
Similar to Option 1: Reinstated Service, this option will provide one trip per direction per day, six days per week; 
however, trips will operate on a daytime schedule rather than overnight. 
Option 5: Staged Service
This option considers alternative phasing for service extensions to Timmins or Cochrane. The service will terminate 
at North Bay for the first ten years of service, and then serve Timmins or Cochrane over the remainder of the 
evaluation period.
Option 6: Seasonally Adjusted Service
This option considers scaling weekly trip frequency on seasonal travel demand along the entire rail corridor. Periods 
of high demand, such as the summer and winter holiday seasons would see increased service, while periods with 
lower demand would have reduced service levels. Overall, this option will provide between four to seven days per 
week and will average 4.75 trips per week over a full year. Initial assumptions on service levels were developed
based on the ridership of the previous Northlander service but could be further refined in future project 
development. 

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Parallel Bus Service
Ontario Northland currently operates bus services along the Highway 11 corridor. This business case considered 
two scenarios:
• A Conservative Scenario, where buses will continue to operate on the corridor and provide an alternative 
inter-community travel mode;
• An Optimistic Scenario, where bus services will be rationalized as rail service is implemented. This will 
involve the elimination of two bus trips per day while rail service is operational.
Bus service design, including any potential service reductions, should be further developed as the project advances
in order to optimize costs while providing the greatest utility to northern residents. Particular focus should be 
placed on communities that are currently served by bus that would not receive rail service.
Summary of Options
The combination of service levels and phasing provides a total of 17 options for consideration in this business case. 
Table 8 provides a summary of the options considered. 

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Table 8: Summary of Options
Service Terminus Description
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, seven days per week
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Additional onboard amenities (light snacking, sandwiches, beverages, and app pre-ordering service)
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay
• Two trips per direction per day, seven days per week
• Nighttime and daytime departures from Northern Ontario
• Additional onboard amenities (light snacking, sandwiches, beverages, and app pre-ordering service)
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Daytime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service
B: Timmins • One trip per direction per day, six days per week (no service on Wednesdays)
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
• Service to North Bay only for the first ten years of service, then extending to Timmins or Cochrane for 
the remainder of the analysis period
C: Cochrane
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay
• One trip per direction per day, four to seven days per week depending on the season
• Nighttime departures from Northern Ontario
• Onboard amenities to be determined
B: Timmins
C: Cochrane 

29
4
Strategic Case 

30
Introduction
The Strategic Case summarizes the performance of the options against the identified strategic objectives to indicate 
if the investment addresses the Problem Statement.
Strategic Evaluation
Transportation
Ridership
The Northeastern Passenger Rail Service is expected to recapture some of the ridership of the former Northlander 
rail service, as well as new riders through the proposed optimizations in service patterns and changes in the 
operating environment. This included reviews of historic and current ridership, demographic data, trip purpose data 
and highway traffic counts.
The average ridership of the former Northlander service was used as the baseline of the ridership projections, with 
additional factors applied to account for changes in the stopping pattern, travel time, schedule, fare, amenities and 
mode shifts from other modes. The estimates include a conservative scenario which assumes lower shifts from 
other modes and limited changes to parallel bus service along the corridor; and an optimistic scenario which 
assumes higher shifts from other modes and rationalization of parallel bus service. The range of ridership for each 
option under the conservative and optimistic scenarios is presented in Table 9. 

31
Table 9: Projected Ridership Along the Full Corridor5
Services Terminus Estimated 2024* Rail 
Ridership
Estimated 2024 Bus 
Ridership
Estimated 2041 Rail 
Ridership
Estimated 2041 Bus 
Ridership
Business as Usual 0 67,725 0 87,225
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay 22,775 to 33,275 65,525 to 56,650 29,350 to 42,850 84,400 to 72,975
B: Timmins 31,950 to 45,175 65,100 to 54,650 41,150 to 58,175 83,850 to 70,375
C: Cochrane 30,075 to 41,850 65,050 to 54,475 38,725 to 53,900 83,800 to 70,150
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay 24,600 to 37,800 65,300 to 55,425 31,675 to 48,700 84,100 to 71,400
B: Timmins 34,450 to 51,225 64,825 to 53,200 44,375 to 65,975 83,500 to 68,525
C: Cochrane 32,450 to 47,500 64,775 to 53,000 41,800 to 61,175 83,425 to 68,275
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay 38,475 to 64,950 58,025 to 43,125 49,550 to 83,650 74,750 to 55,550
B: Timmins 52,575 to 86,425 56,100 to 38,675 67,725 to 111,325 72,250 to 49,825
C: Cochrane 50,175 to 81,050 55,950 to 38,275 64,625 to 104,400 72,050 to 49,300
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay 22,450 to 32,225 65,550 to 56,650 28,900 to 41,500 84,425 to 72,975
B: Timmins 31,125 to 42,725 65,100 to 54,650 40,100 to 55,025 83,850 to 70,400
C: Cochrane 29,375 to 39,975 65,050 to 54,475 37,850 to 51,500 83,800 to 70,150
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service6
B: Timmins 22,775 to 33,275 65,525 to 56,650 41,150 to 58,175 83,850 to 70,375
C: Cochrane 22,775 to 33,275 65,525 to 56,650 38,725 to 53,900 83,800 to 70,150
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay 21,875 to 31,000 65,650 to 57,275 28,200 to 39,925 84,550 to 73,775
B: Timmins 30,700 to 42,150 65,225 to 55,350 39,550 to 54,275 84,025 to 71,300
C: Cochrane 28,875 to 39,025 65,200 to 55,200 37,200 to 50,275 84,000 to 71,100
5 Whether an option refers to a rail terminus in North Bay, Timmins or Cochrane, the bus and rail ridership values 
shown here are for the entire corridor considering all origin-destination pairs along the corridor. For example, in 
Option 1A (North Bay), the bus ridership values shown include riders traveling from South River to Cochrane or 
Kapuskasing to Toronto, even if the rail line does not run all the way from Toronto to Timmins or Cochrane. 
Stations that are along the corridor, but do not have rail stations planned (meaning they would be served by 
feeder buses) are also included: this includes Swastika, South River, and Porquis.
Note that ridership was forecasted assuming the impact of COVID-19 will be negligible in the long-term (i.e., 
2041). The passenger rail service is assumed to be operational from the mid-2020s and the impact of COVID-19 
on near-term rail ridership was also treated as being minimal.
6 Option 5: Staged Service assumes service to Timmins / Cochrane could begin ten years after the start of service 
to North Bay. While the annual ridership in 2041 will be equivalent to those of Option 1: Reinstated Service, the 
60-year total ridership is lower for this option. 

32
*Launch of the service is planned for the mid-2020s. Ridership and costing estimates assume 2024 as the launch year and date 
is subject to change. 
Travel Time
A conceptual rail timetable was developed to determine approximate travel times of the proposed rail service. This 
IBC assumes estimated running times observed in 2012 and that the station-to-station travel times are equivalent 
between all options.
Compared to current bus service, the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service will offer similar travel times between 
most origin-destination pairs, except between Timmins and Toronto where the bus service will continue to be
faster, assuming no service interruptions due to weather or congestion along the highway corridor. Compared to 
personal vehicle travel times, the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service has longer travel times for all origin￾destination pairs. Table 10 presents the travel times to Toronto from selected destinations on the Northeastern Rail 
Corridor, via the available travel modes. These times include on-route transfers, but do not include first mile last 
mile travel time, transfers and other processing times (e.g., security at airports).
Table 10: Terminal to Terminal In-Vehicle Travel Time Comparisons
Auto Bus Rail* Air
Muskoka 
(Gravenhurst) -
Toronto
Via Barrie: 1h 40m 
to 2h 20m
Ontario Northland bus: 
3h
Northeastern Rail 
Corridor (all options): 2h 
41m
Muskoka Airport to Billy Bishop 
Airport: 35m (seasonal)
North Bay –
Toronto
Via Barrie: 3h 20m 
to 4h 10m
Ontario Northland Bus: 
5h (express); 6h (all-stop)
Northeastern Rail 
Corridor (all options): 5h 
35m
Jack Garland Airport to Pearson 
International Airport: 1h 8m
Timmins –
Toronto
Via Sudbury and 
Barrie: 7h to 8h
Ontario Northland bus with 
transfer via Sudbury: 11h
05m
Northeastern Rail 
Corridor (Timmins 
terminus options): 12h 
20m
Victor M. Power Airport to Billy 
Bishop Airport:1h 21m or 
Pearson International Airport: 
1h 40m
Cochrane -
Toronto
Via North Bay and 
Barrie: 7h 10m to 
8h 20m
Ontario Northland bus with 
transfer via Matheson & 
North Bay: 12h 05m
Northeastern Rail 
Corridor (Cochrane 
terminus options: (12h 
20m)
N/A
*Note: The travel times presented above are based on running times observed in 2012. Results from a recent test train run 
indicate it may be possible to reduce the in-vehicle travel time between North Bay and the northern terminus, but these results 
are preliminary and are under review. Estimates of travel times will be re-evaluated in the next stage of detailed planning and 
design work.
For the Muskoka-Toronto market, the rail service will be a slight improvement on the existing bus travel times, with 
rail journey times estimated at just under three hours. Bus and rail travel times are slower than travel by car but
could be competitive during peak periods. Air travel remains faster than rail; however, air travel is only available 
during the summer, provides limited capacity and is generally more expensive for users compared to bus and rail. 
For the North Bay-Toronto market, the rail service travel time is comparable to the existing bus schedules. The 
service is faster than the all-stop bus, but slower than the express offerings. Compared to the car, rail travel is 
approximately one and a half to two hours slower. Similar to the Muskoka market, air travel remains the fastest, but  

33
most expensive travel mode. Air travel was previously available year-round for this destination, but service was 
discontinued due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The return of air service to North Bay has not been confirmed.
For the Timmins-Toronto market, the rail service is estimated to be approximately one hour slower than the current 
bus service and approximately five hours slower than travel by car. The majority of this time is overnight, however, 
which allows passengers to travel during otherwise unproductive time. Year-round flights are available to and from
Timmins, at costs comparable to rail if booked in advance with a travel time of approximately 90 to 100 minutes.
Travel times for the Cochrane-Toronto market are similar to the Timmins-Toronto market. Rail service would 
provide comparable travel times to current bus service but would remain slower than travel by car. Cochrane has 
fewer travel options than Timmins however, since air travel is not an available option.
Travel Reliability and Network Resilience
All options provide enhanced travel time reliability relative to bus service. Rail service operates on a separate 
corridor from general traffic, providing a service that is unaffected by highway congestion. By operating on a 
separate right-of-way from the highway, the service also provides a resilient transportation mode in the event of a 
closure or disruption on the road network.
There is still the potential for rail service delays as a result of conflicting rail movements, particularly on single track 
territory where trains may need to wait in sidings to allow for an opposing train to pass. The Enhanced Service 
options propose additional passing track locations to mitigate this risk, while Twice Daily Service options would also
provide passing tracks at regular intervals to provide further operational flexibility. Enhanced and Twice daily 
service would come at a very high cost, however, and may not be justifiable given the population and potential 
ridership.
Customer Comfort and Amenities
All options provide an enhanced inter-community experience by replacing existing coach buses with a passenger 
rail option. Rail transportation offers more space for passengers and an improved ride quality relative to bus service.
The Reinstated Service options provide a basic service with limited customer amenities. Customers would be 
required to either purchase tickets online prior to boarding or purchase their tickets on-board. On-board amenities 
include wireless connectivity (Wi-Fi), USB receptacles, luggage racks, washrooms, heating and air conditioning, as 
are standard on Ontario Northland buses (intercity coaches).
Both the Enhanced Service options and Twice Daily Service options provide additional amenities such as on-board 
food and drink sales to improve the ease of travel and experience for passengers. 
Quality of Life
Access to inter-community passenger transportation
The Northeastern Passenger Rail Service will extend the reach of passenger rail transportation to serve
communities in Northern Ontario, including Indigenous communities. The service provides a means for northern 
residents to access specialized services across Northern Ontario and in the GGH. In particular, medical 
appointments are and will continue to be a significant driver of travel for the ageing population in Northern 
Ontario, especially for the communities north of North Bay. This access to services contributes to healthy  

34
communities and improved standard of living for residents of Northern Ontario. The service schedule for all options 
is designed to maximize the number of daytime hours in Toronto, allowing northern residents to attend 
appointments and complete errands through a day trip. It is important to note that two consecutive long-distance 
overnight trips might not be a desirable option for elderly people as well as for people making trips for medical 
appointments.
Through the implementation of service between North Bay and Toronto, communities of Washago, Gravenhurst, 
Bracebridge, Huntsville and North Bay will have access to passenger rail transportation. The 2016 counts of the 
census subdivisions reported 113K residents in these communities. Overall, these options only serve the two 
southern-most districts in Northern Ontario.
Extension of the service to Timmins will provide rail service to the communities of Temagami, Temiskaming Shores, 
Englehart, Matheson and Timmins. This adds 58K residents to the catchment area of the service. These options 
serve four of the nine districts in Northern Ontario and meets stakeholder expectations for a service that connects a 
significant portion of the north.
Extension to Cochrane would also serve the communities of Temagami, Temiskaming Shores, Englehart, and 
Matheson. Serving Cochrane instead of Timmins, however, will directly serve a lower number of residents, 
however, this option would still provide a seamless connection to Timmins from Matheson train station, through 
Ontario Northland’s inter-community bus service. The North Bay-Cochrane route serves 21K residents, in addition 
to those served by the Toronto-North Bay route. In total, only 16% of Northern Ontario residents live in 
communities served by the Toronto-Cochrane route.
The service also offers the ability for residents in communities between Timmins, Cochrane and North Bay to access 
services and businesses in these small population centres. 
Equity
The introduction of rail service will add service for disadvantaged members of northern communities, over the 
existing Ontario Northland bus service. These include individuals that:
• do not have access to a personal vehicle, or are unwilling or unable to drive;
• do not have a family member, friend or caregiver who can provide a ride;
• have a low income and unable to afford alternative travel modes (e.g. flights); and/or
• have accessibility needs that make it more difficult to board and ride a bus.
This is particularly important for communities, including Indigenous communities, that are further north and more 
remote, as the challenges are exacerbated by the distance and time required for travel.
Passenger rail will provide a reliable means for these individuals to travel between Northern Ontario and the GGH. 
Platforms and railcars are proposed to be operated in a similar manner to a GO Transit’s mini-platform and 
accessibility coaches, which provide easy level boarding access for passengers.
Improved Transportation Safety
The Northeastern Rail Corridor would improve the safety of travellers between Northern Ontario and the GGH. The 
service is forecasted to reduce the overall vehicle-kilometres travelled, which reduces the accident risk on  

35
highways. In particular, the Northeastern Passenger Rail Servicewill reduce the number of auto trips through the 
snowbelt regions of Ontario, as well as the number of long-distance trips between Northern Ontario and the GGH.
Economic and Regional Development
Supporting Innovation and Prosperity
Service on the Toronto-North Bay route would connect the GGH with the fourth largest municipality in Northern 
Ontario, while the extension to Timmins would also connect the fifth largest municipality. The Cochrane terminus 
variant also extends service; however, Cochrane is a smaller community.
While the proposed rail service schedules are not expected to expand the commute shed of the GGH (the area that 
workers might or are known to commute from for employment, assuming maximum travel time or distances); it 
would allow northern residents and businesses to conduct occasional travel more easily. This provides the north 
with greater access to the GGH economy, specialized services, as well as education, training and skills development 
opportunities.
Supporting Northern Tourism
The introduction of passenger rail will provide another alternative travel modes for tourists between the GGH and 
Northern Ontario. In particular, this provides an option for interprovincial and international tourists, who may not 
have access to a personal vehicle, and may not want to ride a bus or be able to afford a plane ticket. 
Passenger rail also increases the capacity of the transportation network to accommodate travellers during the peak 
season, particularly to cottage country destinations in Muskoka District. By operating in a separate right-of-way, 
passenger rail is able to provide reliable travel times, even during the peak tourism season. The provision of an 
alternative, more reliable travel mode may also induce further travel demand for the tourism industry in Northern 
Ontario.
Sustainable Environment
Reduction in Transportation-Related Emissions
The Northeastern Passenger Rail Service may provide a more sustainable transportation mode for a relatively long￾distance journey. The distance between North Bay and Toronto is approximately 360km, while the distance 
between Cochrane / Timmins and Toronto is approximately 700km. While the ridership on the service is relatively 
low, the long distances may still result in carbon emissions savings by diverting trips that otherwise would have 
been completed with personal vehicles, if sufficient mode shift from cars to trains is achieved. 
Similar to the vehicle accident risk reduction, the emissions reduction is estimated through the reduction of vehicle 
kilometres travelled (VKT). Table 11 shows the estimated reductions as a result of each option. It is important to 
note that operating a rail service also generates greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) that are not included in the 
figures shown in  

36
Table 11: Estimated Auto-Related VKT and Emissions Reduction
Service Terminus Annual VKT Reduction (2041) Annual Auto GHG Emissions Reduction (2041)
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay 9.6M to 10.9M 2,410 to 2,720 tonnes
B: Timmins 14.9M to 17.0M 3,740 to 4,240 tonnes
C: Cochrane 13.5M to 14.3M 3,380 to 3,570 tonnes
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay 10.4M to 12.5M 2,600 to 3,130 tonnes
B: Timmins 16.1M to 19.4M 4,020 to 4,840 tonnes
C: Cochrane 14.5M to 16.3M 3,640 to 4,080 tonnes
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay 13.5M to 19.8M 3,370 to 4,950 tonnes
B: Timmins 20.8M to 30.0M 5,210 to 7,510 tonnes
C: Cochrane 18.9M to 25.5M 4,720 to 6,370 tonnes
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay 9.4M to 10.2M 2,360 to 2,550 tonnes
B: Timmins 14.4M to 15.3M 3,590 to 3,820 tonnes
C: Cochrane 13.1M to 13.1M 3,270 to 3,270 tonnes
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins 14.9M to 17.0M 3,740 to 4,240 tonnes
C: Cochrane 13.5M to 14.3M 3,380 to 3,570 tonnes
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay 9.3M to 10.0M 2,320 to 2,510 tonnes
B: Timmins 14.4M to 15.8M 3,600 to 3,950 tonnes
C: Cochrane 13.0M to 13.3M 3,250 to 3,320 tonnes
Strategic Case Summary
All options evaluated in this business case provide improved transportation options for residents in northern 
Ontario and support the goals outlined in the Case for Change.
Options that provide a higher level of service generate greater transportation benefits and serve a wider variety of 
trip types. The most significant impact is the provision of Twice Daily Service under Option 3, which resulted in a 
65%-95% increase in ridership relative to the Reinstated Service options. Associated benefits, including reductions 
in vehicle-kilometres travelled and collisions, also increase with this service level option.
Similarly, options that extend the service further north generate greater strategic benefits by providing access to a 
greater proportion of northern residents. In particular, options that extend service to Timmins will serve a larger
population centre in Northern Ontario.
Table 12 summarizes the performance of each option against the strategic goals and objectives. 

37
Table 12: Strategic Case Summary
Strategic 
Outcome
Option 1: Reinstated Service Option 2: Enhanced Service Option 3: Twice Daily Service
A: North Bay B: Timmins C: Cochrane A: North Bay B: Timmins C: Cochrane A: North Bay B: Timmins C: Cochrane
Strategic Goal 1: Transportation
Ridership 29.4K to 42.9K annual rail 
riders by 2041
41.2K to 58.2K annual rail 
riders by 2041
38.7K to 53.9K annual rail 
riders by 2041
31.7K to 48.7K annual rail 
riders by 2041
44.4K to 66K annual rail 
riders by 2041
41.8K to 61.2K annual rail 
riders by 2041
49.6K to 83.7K annual rail 
riders by 2041
67.7K to 111.3K annual 
rail riders by 2041
64.6K to 104.4K annual 
rail riders by 2041
Travel Time
Improved inter￾community travel time to 
Muskoka, and equivalent 
inter-community travel 
times to North Bay
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Improved inter￾community travel time to 
Muskoka, and equivalent 
transit travel times to 
North Bay
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Improved inter￾community travel time to 
Muskoka, and equivalent 
transit travel times to 
North Bay
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during 
unproductive time
Travel Reliability 
and Network 
Resilience
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of highway closure. Inter￾community passenger rail service operates within a separate corridor; potential 
delays from opposing train movements
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of highway closure. Additional 
passing track provides some mitigation for potential rail operational delays
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of highway closure. Regular 
passing track locations provides additional operational flexibility
Customer 
Comfort and 
Amenities
No passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in advance or on-board Some passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in advance or on￾board
Some passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in advance or on￾board
Strategic Goal 2: Quality of Life
Access to inter￾community 
passenger 
transportation
113K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
171K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
134K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
113K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
171K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger
rail 
134K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
113K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
171K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
134K residents in 
northern communities 
with access to passenger 
rail 
Equity
Passenger rail 
transportation provides a 
more reliable and 
accessible mode for 
northern residents.
Passenger rail transportation provides a more reliable 
and accessible mode. Benefits are extended to more 
remote northern communities.
Passenger rail 
transportation provides a 
more reliable and 
accessible mode for 
northern residents.
Passenger rail transportation provides a more reliable 
and accessible mode. Benefits are extended to more 
remote northern communities
Passenger rail 
transportation provides a 
more reliable and 
accessible mode for 
northern residents.
Passenger rail transportation provides a more reliable 
and accessible mode. Benefits are extended to more 
remote northern communities
Improved safety
Provides a safer travel 
alternative for northern 
residents.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern 
residents. Benefits are extended to more remote 
northern communities.
Provides a safer travel 
alternative for northern 
residents.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern 
residents. Benefits are extended to more remote 
northern communities.
Provides a safer travel 
alternative for northern 
residents.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern 
residents. Benefits are extended to more remote 
northern communities.
Strategic Goal 3: Economic Development
Connect
communities Serves goal to get people moving and connect communities from Connecting the North: A Draft Transportation Plan for Northern Ontario
Support for 
northern 
tourism
Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism demand, especially to 
RTO 12.
Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism demand, especially to 
RTO 12.
Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism demand, especially to 
RTO 12.
Strategic Goal 4: Environmental Sustainability
Reduced auto 
emissions 
2.4K to 2.7K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
3.7K to 4.2K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
3.4K to 3.6K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
2.6K to 3.1K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
4.0K to 4.8K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
3.6K to 4.1K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
3.4K to 4.9K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
5.2K to 7.5K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041
4.7K to 6.4K tonnes of 
GHG emissions from cars 
annually by 2041 

38
Strategic 
Outcome
Option 4: Daytime Service Option 5: Staged Service7 Option 6: Seasonally Adjusted Service
A: North Bay B: Timmins C: Cochrane B: Timmins C: Cochrane A: North Bay B: Timmins C: Cochrane
Strategic Goal 1: Transportation
Ridership 28.9K to 41.5K annual rail 
riders by 2041
40.1K to 55K annual rail riders 
by 2041
37.9K to 51.5K annual rail 
riders by 2041
41.2K to 58.2K annual rail 
riders by 2041
38.7K to 53.9K annual rail 
riders by 2041
28.2K to 39.9K annual rail 
riders by 2041
39.5K to 54.3K annual rail 
riders by 2041
37.2K to 50.3K annual rail 
riders by 2041
Travel Time
Improved inter-community 
travel time to Muskoka, and 
equivalent transit travel times 
to North Bay
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Improved inter-community
travel time to Muskoka, and 
equivalent transit travel times 
to North Bay
Slower inter-community
travel times to Timmins. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Slower inter-community
travel times to Cochrane. 
Overnight trips allow for 
travel during unproductive 
time
Travel Reliability 
and Network 
Resilience
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of highway closure. Transit service 
operates within a separate corridor; potential delays from opposing train movements
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of 
highway closure. Additional passing track provides some 
mitigation for potential rail operational delays
Provides redundancy in transportation network in case of highway closure. Regular passing track 
locations provides additional operational flexibility
Customer
Comfort and 
Amenities
No passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in advance No passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in 
advance No passenger amenities. Passengers must buy tickets online in advance 
Strategic Goal 2: Quality of Life
Access to inter￾community 
passenger 
transportation
113K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail 
171K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
134K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
171K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
134K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
113K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
171K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
134K residents in northern 
communities with access to 
passenger rail
Equity
Passenger rail provides a 
more reliable and accessible 
mode for northern residents.
Passenger rail provides a more reliable and accessible mode. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities.
Passenger rail provides a more reliable and accessible mode. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities
Passenger rail provides a 
more reliable and accessible 
mode for northern residents.
Passenger rail provides a more reliable and accessible mode. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities
Improved safety
Provides a safer travel 
alternative for northern 
residents.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern residents. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern residents. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities.
Provides a safer travel 
alternative for northern 
residents.
Provides a safer travel alternative for northern residents. 
Benefits are extended to more remote northern communities.
Strategic Goal 3: Economic Development
Connect 
Communities Serves goal to get people moving and connect communities from Connecting the North: A Draft Transportation Plan for Northern Ontario
Support for 
northern 
tourism
Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism demand, especially to RTO 12. Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism 
demand, especially to RTO 12. Provides additional capacity to accommodate peak tourism demand, especially to RTO 12.
Strategic Goal 4: Environmental Sustainability
Reduced auto 
emissions 
2.4K to 2.5K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.6K to 3.8K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.3K to 3.3K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.7K to 4.2K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.4K to 3.6K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
2.3K to 2.5K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.6K to 3.9K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
3.3K to 3.3K tonnes of GHG 
emissions from cars annually 
by 2041
7 Note that while Options 5B and 5C achieve similar strategic benefits compared to Options 1B and 1C respectively, the full benefits are not achieved until 10 years after project implementation due to the staged approach for the northern segment of the project. 

39
5
Economic Case 

40
Introduction
The Economic Case is one of two chapters focused on the rationale for pursuing an investment (the other being the 
Strategic Case). While the Strategic Case evaluates options based on a project specific policy / plan oriented 
evaluation framework, the Economic Case determines if the expected benefits of this investment exceed the costs 
required to deliver it, and articulates the overall benefit to society of pursuing each investment option.
The Economic Case compares costs and benefits to determine the overall economic viability of an investment. This 
analysis considers the magnitude of costs and benefits for a 60-year lifecycle (the evaluation period) as well as:
• Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) – the net benefits divided by the net costs, which is used to indicate benefits that 
are realized per dollar spent
• Net Present Value (NPV) – the net benefits minus net costs, which is used to indicate total net benefits to 
the region
Assumptions
Metrolinx retained a consultant to study the potential ridership of the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service. The 
ridership impacts of the proposed investment were estimated using a direct demand model which developed 
annual 2041 ridership forecasts for each option at a station-to-station level. This approach was chosen based on the 
available data and to best deal with the uncertainties associated with this type of forecast, particularly in the 
absence of available software-based transportation models covering Northern Ontario. At a high level, the 
approach uses rail ridership data from the final years of the Northlander service, and grows this base demand 
derived from factors such as population growth, changes in scheduling and travel times, as well as other factors. For 
a near term (i.e., 2024) ridership as well as economic and financial analysis please see Appendix A.
Travel time impacts are considered by comparing the proposed rail service’s perceived travel times to those of the 
original Northlander service, and varying demand based on externally researched elasticity estimates for long￾distance rail trips.
Travel time benefits together with external impacts associated with reductions in VKT are evaluated over an 
assumed 60-year life of the investment and compared against the costs required to deliver the investment over the 
same period to determine the overall net economic benefits to society.
The model makes use of assumptions and parameters throughout the social cost benefit analysis, as noted in Table 
13. The assumptions and parameters used within this Initial Business Case are consistent with Metrolinx’s Business 
Case Manual Volume 2: Guidance updated in April 2019. 

41
Table 13: Economic Case Assumptions
Input Impact Type
Analysis Approach All benefits/costs are expressed in real terms in 2019$.
Appraisal begins in 2019. It includes 2 years of construction (2021-2023), with an 
opening year of 2024, and 60 years of operation (2024-2083)
Ridership and Benefits Forecast Year 2041
Evaluation Period 60 years 
Ridership and Benefits Cap 30 years from base year of evaluation
Economic Discount Rate 3.5%
Real Cost Escalation 1%
Value of Time (VoT) (2019$) $18.06/hour
VoT Growth Rate 0%
Auto operating cost savings (2019$) Marginal operating cost: $0.09/km
Decongestion benefit 0.0055 hours/km
Safety improvements (accident mitigation) 
(2019$) $0.10/km, decreasing at an annual rate of 5.3%.
GHG value $0.011/km
Personal vehicle fuel consumption rate 10.8L /100km
Assumed auto occupancy 1.0 persons/vehicle
All analysis completed in this section uses real values and a social discount rate, as opposed to nominal values and a 
financial discount rate. Real values do not include the impact of general inflation but must consider real growth. A 
social discount rate reflects society’s time value preference for realizing benefits or incurring costs – a benefit or 
cost incurred tomorrow is considered less ‘valuable’ than the same benefit or cost incurred today. 
The model analyzed all options considered for the proposed investment relative to a Business as Usual (BAU)
scenario (today’s bus service). The results from each option under the conservative and optimistic scenarios were 
then compared to determine the incremental benefits that can be realized, and incremental costs required to 
provide rail service to North Bay, Timmins or Cochrane. The analysis does not consider the impacts of rail 
operational delays on service reliability, and the resultant impact on ridership and benefits for passengers. 

42
Costs
The costs or ‘required investment’ to deliver the Northeastern Passenger Rail Serviceare divided into two 
categories:
• Capital Costs – fixed one-time costs incurred during the implementation of the investment. The capital 
costs include the labour and materials required for construction; as well as contingency, major 
rehabilitation and any replacement costs associated with assets, equipment or vehicles nearing the end of 
their useful life.
• Operating and Maintenance Costs – ongoing costs required to operate the service as well as day to day 
maintenance.
The total capital, operating and maintenance costs for the entire lifecycle of the Northeastern Passenger Rail 
Serviceare listed below. A breakdown of the capital costs is provided in the next Chapter. These costs are 
incremental to a BAU scenario and have been discounted based on the approach defined earlier in this chapter.
Costs for each option are presented as a range between the conservative and optimistic scenarios. The only 
difference in costs between the two modelled scenarios is the incremental bus operating cost savings and bus 
replacement costs associated with bus rationalization under the optimistic scenario. Other costs that may be 
incurred to achieve the optimistic ridership scenario, such as subsidies or partnerships with local transit agencies or 
ride hailing services to improve station access, have not been included in this business case. 

43
Table 14: Economic Costs Summary (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Capital Cost Operating and 
Maintenance Costs Total Costs
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $159.9M to $138.8M $188.2M to $165.4M
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $263.1M to $220.2M $322.9M to $278.3M
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $263.1M to $219.0M $320.8M to $275.1M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $38.6M to $36.9M $188.3M to $163.7M $226.9M to $200.6M
B: Timmins $73.9M to $72.2M $312.1M to $262.1M $386.0M to $334.3M
C: Cochrane $71.8M to $70.1M $312.1M to $260.7M $383.9M to $330.8M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $80.2M to $78.5M $356.0M to $331.3M $436.2M to $409.9M
B: Timmins $116.7M to $115.0M $583.0M to $533.0M $699.6M to $648.0M
C: Cochrane $114.6M to $113.0M $583.0M to $531.5M $697.6M to $644.5M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $159.9M to $138.8M $188.2M to $165.4M
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $263.1M to $220.2M $322.9M to $278.3M
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $263.1M to $219.0M $320.8M to $275.1M
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $231.3M to $195.2M $291.1M to $253.2M
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $231.3M to $194.3M $289.0M to $250.4M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $128.0M to $111.3M $156.4M to $137.9M
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $212.2M to $178.2M $272.0M to $236.3M
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $212.2M to $177.3M $270.0M to $233.3M
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
User Impacts
User Impacts are a key area of analysis for transport investments. They capture how the investment will improve 
the welfare of transport network users or travellers. This includes both travellers who will and will not make use of 
the proposed rail service. The Northeastern Passenger Rail Servicewill change the generalized cost of travel- the 
monetary and non-monetary costs of a trip - to three main groups:
• Existing Ontario Northland Bus Passengers – The Northeastern Passenger Rail Servicewill reduce the 
perceived generalized cost of travel for existing bus users by introducing rail service. Users perceive their 
travel time to be shorter on rail compared to travel time on a bus. There may also be improvements in the 
perception of travel time for a nighttime train relative to bus. Investing in the Northeastern Passenger Rail 
Servicewill therefore provide a direct benefit to these existing bus users who would switch to the new rail 
service. 

44
• New Ontario Northland Rail Passengers/Former Auto Users – The rail service will reduce the perceived 
generalized cost of inter-community travel from North Bay, Timmins or Cochrane to Toronto. This will 
attract new users to the rail service who were previously auto users. These new users will receive a benefit 
equal to the difference in what they were willing to pay and the new generalized cost of travel on the 
proposed rail service.
• Auto Users – The Northeastern Passenger Rail Servicewill attract some auto users to its new rail service. 
This abstraction of car trips may result in decongestion on roads previously travelled by these auto users
which in turn may reduce the travel time and operating cost for travellers who continue to drive.
All user impacts included in this analysis are ‘net impacts’ across the investment; a sum of benefits and disbenefits.
Impacts are presented in ranges across options reflecting the conservative and optimistic modelled scenarios
Table 15: User Impacts (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Transit Travel
Time Benefits
Auto Congestion 
Reduction
Auto Operating 
Cost Reduction
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $8.7M to $27.3M $5.7M to $6.1M $17.9M to $20.2M
B: Timmins $13.8M to $45.1M $6.8M to $7.4M $27.8M to $31.6M
C: Cochrane $12.6M to $39.3M $6.4M to $6.6M $25.1M to $26.6M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $9.4M to $30.9M $6.1M to $7.0M $19.3M to $23.3M
B: Timmins $14.9M to $50.9M $7.3M to $8.4M $29.9M to $36.0M
C: Cochrane $13.6M to $44.4M $6.8M to $7.6M $27.1M to $30.4M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $17.2M to $54.8M $7.9M to $11.0M $25.1M to $36.8M
B: Timmins $25.1M to $86.8M $9.4M to $13.0M $38.7M to $55.8M
C: Cochrane $23.1M to $76.8M $8.8M to $11.8M $35.1M to $47.4M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $8.2M to $24.4M $5.5M to $5.8M $17.5M to $19.0M
B: Timmins $11.2M to $33.5M $6.5M to $6.8M $26.7M to $28.4M
C: Cochrane $10.6M to $30.9M $6.2M to $6.2M $24.3M to $24.3M
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $12.3M to $39.8M $6.4M to $7.0M $24.9M to $28.2M
C: Cochrane $11.4M to $35.8M $6.1M to $6.5M $23.0M to $24.7M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $8.4M to $25.5M $5.4M to $5.7M $17.3M to $18.7M
B: Timmins $13.2M to $42.2M $6.5M to $6.8M $26.8M to $29.4M
C: Cochrane $12.1M to $36.8M $6.1M to $6.2M $24.2M to $24.7M 

45
External Impacts
Every auto trip taken contributes to negative impacts to society such as carbon emissions or the risk of injuries that 
can occur from collisions. These impacts are considered external impacts, or the ‘social cost of transport’ and are 
realized by society. Transportation investments are an opportunity to reduce these social costs by improving the 
economic efficiency of the transportation system, meaning less impact for the same amount of travel (measured in 
impacts per passenger kilometre).
In the case of the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service, motorists switching to its proposed rail service decrease the 
number of trips on the road network. This will lead to fewer collisions and may result in a reduction of emissions, 
making the transportation network safer and healthier.
External impacts are estimated through the mode changes generated by the proposed investment. If travellers 
move from a less efficient mode to passenger rail, then there is an impact equivalent to the externalities per trip on 
passenger rail, minus the externalities on their previously used mode. These benefits are calculated based on the 
change in automobile VKT. The calculation of GHG emissions also includes the additional emissions due to the 
operation of diesel locomotives for rail service.
Safety and environmental impacts resulting from the introduction of rail service between Toronto and Northern 
Ontario are presented in ranges across options reflecting the conservative and optimistic scenarios modelled. 

46
Table 16: External Impacts (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Collision Reduction GHG Emissions Reduction
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $7.7M to $8.6M -$0.6M to -$0.4M
B: Timmins $11.9M to $13.5M -$2.2M to -$1.8M
C: Cochrane $10.7M to $11.4M -$2.6M to -$2.2M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $8.3M to $9.9M -$0.9M to -$0.7M
B: Timmins $12.8M to $15.4M -$2.8M to -$2.4M
C: Cochrane $11.6M to $13.0M -$3.3M to -$2.8M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $10.7M to $15.7M -$3.3M to -$2.8M
B: Timmins $16.6M to $23.9M -$8.0M to -$7.1M
C: Cochrane $15.0M to $20.3M -$8.7M to -$7.8M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $7.5M to $8.1M -$0.6M to -$0.4M
B: Timmins $11.4M to $12.1M -$2.3M to -$1.9M
C: Cochrane $10.4M to $10.4M -$2.7M to -$2.3M
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $10.0M to $11.3M -$2.5M to -$2.1M
C: Cochrane $9.4M to $10.2M -$2.8M to -$2.4M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $7.4M to $8.0M -$0.1M to $0.0M
B: Timmins $11.4M to $12.5M -$1.2M to -$0.9M
C: Cochrane $10.3M to $10.5M -$1.6M to -$1.3M
Economic Case Summary 
The economic evaluation indicates that the Northeastern Passenger Rail Servicewould reduce the perceived travel 
time for existing and new Ontario Northland passengers, potentially reduce automobile usage and congestion, 
generate safety benefits and potentially reduce environmental impacts. For all options, these economic benefits do 
not outweigh the associated capital, operating and maintenance costs, resulting in a negative net present value and 
a benefit-cost ratio that is less than 1.0. 
Options that increase service frequency or extend service further north generate greater total benefits, however, 
these do not outweigh the additional costs to deliver the service. Of the two possible northern terminus extension 
options, Timmins outperforms Cochrane in terms of both total economic benefits, as well as benefit cost-ratio.
Table 17 summarizes the economic analysis results for each option. 

47
Table 17: Economic Case Summary (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Total Costs Total Economic 
Impacts
Incremental Fare 
Revenue Adjustment Net Present Value Benefit Cost 
Ratio
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $188.2M to $165.4M $39.4M to $61.9M $44.5M to $47.9M -$104.4M to -$55.7M 0.45 to 0.66
B: Timmins $322.9M to $278.3M $58.1M to $95.8M $67.4M to $73.6M -$197.4M to -$108.9M 0.39 to 0.61
C: Cochrane $320.8M to $275.1M $52.2M to $81.7M $61.4M to $64.0M -$207.2M to -$129.3M 0.35 to 0.53
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $226.9M to $200.6M $42.2M to $70.5M $47.8M to $55.0M -$136.9M to -$75.1M 0.40 to 0.63
B: Timmins $386.0M to $334.3M $62.0M to $108.4M $72.4M to $84.2M -$251.5M to -$141.7M 0.35 to 0.58
C: Cochrane $383.9M to $330.8M $55.7M to $92.6M $66.1M to $73.4M -$262.1M to -$164.9M 0.32 to 0.50
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $436.2M to $409.9M $57.6M to $115.6M $62.1M to $87.0M -$316.5M to -$207.3M 0.27 to 0.49
B: Timmins $699.6M to $648.0M $81.7M to $172.5M $94.0M to $131.7M -$523.9M to -$343.7M 0.25 to 0.47
C: Cochrane $697.6M to $644.5M $73.3M to $148.5M $86.0M to $115.6M -$538.3M to -$380.4M 0.23 to 0.41
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $188.2M to $165.4M $38.2M to $56.8M $44.0M to $45.6M -$106.1M to -$63.0M 0.44 to 0.62
B: Timmins $322.9M to $278.3M $53.6M to $78.9M $64.4M to $68.1M -$204.8M to -$131.3M 0.37 to 0.53
C: Cochrane $320.8M to $275.1M $48.8M to $69.5M $59.9M to $59.9M -$212.1M to -$145.7M 0.34 to 0.47
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service
B: Timmins $291.1M to $253.2M $51.1M to $84.3M $60.6M to $66.0M -$179.4M to -$102.9M 0.38 to 0.59
C: Cochrane $289.0M to $250.4M $47.1M to $74.7M $56.4M to $59.3M -$185.5M to -$116.4M 0.36 to 0.53
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $156.4M to $137.9M $38.3M to $57.9M $42.8M to $44.3M -$75.3M to -$35.7M 0.52 to 0.74
B: Timmins $272.0M to $236.3M $56.7M to $90.0M $64.8M to $68.3M -$150.4M to -$77.9M 0.45 to 0.67
C: Cochrane $270.0M to $233.3M $51.1M to $76.9M $59.0M to $59.3M -$159.8M to -$97.1M 0.41 to 0.58
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

48
6
Financial Case 

49
Introduction 
The Financial Case assesses the overall financial impact of proposed investment options. While the Strategic Case 
and Economic Case outline how an investment achieves organizational goals and social value, the Financial Case is 
one of two cases (the other being the Deliverability and Operations Case) that focuses on the requirements to 
successfully deliver an investment. This includes a review of total revenue (fares) gained and expenditures (capital, 
operating and maintenance) required over the lifecycle of the investment incremental to the base case scenario.
The Financial Case makes use of assumptions and parameters throughout the financial analysis, as noted in Table 
18. The assumptions and parameters used within this Initial Business Case are consistent with Metrolinx’s new Tier 
2 Business Case Guidance, as of April 2018.
Table 18: Financial Case Assumptions
Input Impact Type
Analysis Approach 60-year revenue/costs are expressed in real terms in 2019$; while annual 
revenue/costs are expressed in year of expenditure terms (YOE$)
Appraisal begins in 2019. It includes 2 years of construction (2021-2023), with an 
opening year of 2024
8
, and 60 years of operation (2024-2083)
Ridership and Revenue projection year 2041
Evaluation Period 60 years 
Ridership and Revenue Cap 30 years from base year of evaluation
Financial Discount Rate 5.5% (including 2% inflation)
Inflation Rate 2.0%
Real Operating Cost Inflation 1%
Real Capital Cost Inflation 1%
Real Fare Cost Inflation 0%
Capital Costs
The capital cost of building and delivering the proposed investment options forms the second largest component of 
overall project costs after annual operating and maintenance costs. High level capital costs were estimated in 2019$
for all options and include a 35% contingency allowance, as well as a professional services allowance to account for 
the completion of designs, procurement activities, and support activities during construction. The costs presented 
in the IBC are estimated based on the best available information at time of writing, and are subject to change with 
detailed planning and design work. 
8 Service to be launched in the mid-2020s, with 2024 chosen to provide an example for reference in the IBC. The 
actual launch date of the service will only be determined once the Updated Business Case is complete. Planning 
and construction may take more or less time than indicated in the IBC, and as such it is not possible to provide a 
firm service launch date at this stage. 

50
The main capital cost drivers are associated with new and upgraded track, procurement of rolling stock, and the 
additional new facility costs and new track requirements if Timmins is chosen as the terminus. Station and other 
costs would be higher in a Timmins/South Porcupine terminal scenario because a station would have to be built, 
whereas for a Cochrane terminal scenario a station currently exists, which could require significant upgrades. As 
new information becomes available, there may be a greater difference in capital costs between the Timmins and 
Cochrane options. In the optimistic scenario, which assumes rationalization of parallel bus services, there are 
savings on bus replacement costs for two Ontario Northland buses over the 60-year project lifecycle. A bus is 
assumed to be replaced every 12 years at a cost of $0.9M, which includes mid-life rehabilitation and repower. 
Total capital costs for implementation range between $26.6M to $116.7M in present value terms. Table 19
summarizes the capital costs for each option.
Table 19: Estimated Capital Cost in Financial Terms (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Initial Capital 
Expenditure
Rehabilitation 
Costs
Bus Replacement 
Costs Contingency Total Capital Costs
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $19.5M $2.0M $0.0M to -$1.7M $6.8M $28.3M to $26.6M
B: Timmins $41.1M $4.3M $0.0M to -$1.7M $14.4M $59.8M to $58.1M
C: Cochrane $39.7M $4.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $13.9M $57.7M to $56.0M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $26.6M $2.8M $0.0M to -$1.7M $9.3M $38.6M to $36.9M
B: Timmins $50.8M $5.3M $0.0M to -$1.7M $17.8M $73.9M to $72.2M
C: Cochrane $49.4M $5.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $17.3M $71.8M to $70.1M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $55.2M $5.8M $0.0M to -$1.7M $19.3M $80.2M to $78.5M
B: Timmins $80.2M $8.4M $0.0M to -$1.7M $28.1M $116.7M to $115.0M
C: Cochrane $78.8M $8.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $27.6M $114.6M to $113.0M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $19.5M $2.0M $0.0M to -$1.7M $6.8M $28.3M to $26.6M
B: Timmins $41.1M $4.3M $0.0M to -$1.7M $14.4M $59.8M to $58.1M
C: Cochrane $39.7M $4.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $13.9M $57.7M to $56.0M
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $41.1M $4.3M $0.0M to -$1.7M $14.4M $59.8M to $58.1M
C: Cochrane $39.7M $4.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $13.9M $57.7M to $56.0M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $19.5M $2.0M $0.0M to -$1.7M $6.8M $28.3M to $26.6M
B: Timmins $41.1M $4.3M $0.0M to -$1.7M $14.4M $59.8M to $58.1M
C: Cochrane $39.7M $4.2M $0.0M to -$1.7M $13.9M $57.7M to $56.0M
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
Note: Costs presented in the IBC are estimated based on the best available information at time of writing and are subject to change. 

51
Operating and Maintenance Costs
The operation and maintenance of the Northeastern Passenger Rail Serviceforms the largest component of overall 
project costs. Operating and maintenance costs cover all aspects of the proposed rail service including staffing, fuel, 
track access charges, vehicle and track maintenance and other state of good repair costs. This analysis in this IBC
assumes that there are no incremental costs for track maintenance, since this work would be required to support 
existing freight services in the BAU scenario. Further work will be required in subsequent phases of the project to 
determine incremental annual track maintenance costs. For the optimistic scenario, there are incremental 
operating cost savings related to bus rationalization. 
Rail operating costs over the 60-year project lifecycle are projected to be in the range of $128.0M to $583.0M in 
present value terms, depending on the option, while bus operating cost savings over the 60-year project lifecycle 
under the optimistic scenario are expected to be between $16.8M and $51.4M in present value terms, depending 
on the option. Table 20 summarizes the incremental operating cost impacts of the project.
Table 20: Operating Costs, in Financial Terms
Service Terminus
60-Year Operating Costs (NPV, 2019$) Annual Operating Cost
Rail Costs Bus Savings Total 2024 (YOE$) 2041 (YOE$)
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $159.9M $0.0M to -$21.1M $159.9M to $138.8M $6.5M to $5.7M $7.7M to $6.7M
B: Timmins $263.1M $0.0M to -$42.9M $263.1M to $220.2M $10.7M to $9.0M $12.7M to $10.6M
C: Cochrane $263.1M $0.0M to -$44.1M $263.1M to $219.0M $10.7M to $8.9M $12.7M to $10.6M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $188.3M $0.0M to -$24.6M $188.3M to $163.7M $7.7M to $6.7M $9.1M to $7.9M
B: Timmins $312.1M $0.0M to -$50.0M $312.1M to $262.1M $12.7M to $10.7M $15.1M to $12.6M
C: Cochrane $312.1M $0.0M to -$51.4M $312.1M to $260.7M $12.7M to $10.6M $15.1M to $12.6M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $356.0M $0.0M to -$24.6M $356.0M to $331.3M $14.5M to $13.5M $17.2M to $16.0M
B: Timmins $583.0M $0.0M to -$50.0M $583.0M to $533.0M $23.8M to $21.7M $28.1M to $25.7M
C: Cochrane $583.0M $0.0M to -$51.4M $583.0M to $531.5M $23.8M to $21.7M $28.1M to $25.6M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $159.9M $0.0M to -$21.1M $159.9M to $138.8M $6.5M to $5.7M $7.7M to $6.7M
B: Timmins $263.1M $0.0M to -$42.9M $263.1M to $220.2M $10.7M to $9.0M $12.7M to $10.6M
C: Cochrane $263.1M $0.0M to -$44.1M $263.1M to $219.0M $10.7M to $8.9M $12.7M to $10.6M
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service
B: Timmins $231.3M $0.0M to -$36.2M $231.3M to $195.2M $6.5M to $5.7M $12.7M to $10.6M
C: Cochrane $231.3M $0.0M to -$37.0M $231.3M to $194.3M $6.5M to $5.7M $12.7M to $10.6M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $128.0M $0.0M to -$16.8M $128.0M to $111.3M $5.2M to $4.5M $6.2M to $5.4M
B: Timmins $212.2M $0.0M to -$34.0M $212.2M to $178.2M $8.6M to $7.3M $10.2M to $8.6M
C: Cochrane $212.2M $0.0M to -$35.0M $212.2M to $177.3M $8.6M to $7.2M $10.2M to $8.6M
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

52
Revenue Impacts
Depending on the option contemplated, ridership forecasts estimates that, by 2041, between 25,550 to 52,750 net 
new riders will use the proposed rail service annually under the conservative scenario and between 26,475 and 
73,925 under the optimistic scenario. Average base fare for the service was applied to the annual ridership estimate 
to derive the incremental change in fare revenues. Incremental revenue over the 60-year project lifecycle is 
estimated to be between $42.8M and $94.0M under the conservative scenario, or between $44.3M and $131.7M 
under the optimistic scenario. 
Table 21: Revenue in Financial Terms
Service Terminus 60-Year Incremental Revenue 
Impacts (NPV, 2019$)
Annual Incremental Revenue 
(2024, YOE$)
Annual Incremental Revenue 
(2041, YOE$)
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $44.5M to $47.9M $1.7M to $1.8M $2.2M to $2.4M
B: Timmins $67.4M to $73.6M $2.6M to $2.8M $3.3M to $3.6M
C: Cochrane $61.4M to $64.0M $2.4M to $2.5M $3.0M to $3.2M
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $47.8M to $55.0M $1.8M to $2.1M $2.4M to $2.7M
B: Timmins $72.4M to $84.2M $2.8M to $3.2M $3.6M to $4.2M
C: Cochrane $66.1M to $73.4M $2.5M to $2.8M $3.3M to $3.6M
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $62.1M to $87.0M $2.4M to $3.3M $3.1M to $4.3M
B: Timmins $94.0M to $131.7M $3.6M to $5.0M $4.6M to $6.5M
C: Cochrane $86.0M to $115.6M $3.3M to $4.4M $4.2M to $5.7M
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $43.7M to $45.6M $1.7M to $1.7M $2.2M to $2.3M
B: Timmins $65.4M to $68.1M $2.5M to $2.6M $3.2M to $3.4M
C: Cochrane $59.9M to $59.9M $2.3M to $2.3M $3.0M to $3.0M
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $60.6M to $66.0M $1.7M to $1.8M $3.3M to $3.6M
C: Cochrane $56.4M to $59.3M $1.7M to $1.8M $3.0M to $3.2M
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $42.8M to $44.3M $1.6M to $1.7M $2.1M to $2.2M
B: Timmins $64.8M to $68.3M $2.5M to $2.6M $3.2M to $3.4M
C: Cochrane $59.0M to $59.3M $2.3M to $2.3M $2.9M to $2.9M
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

53
Financial Case Summary
For all options, the overall net revenue of the investment is negative, indicating that the project is not profitable on 
a strictly financial basis. Similarly, the incremental operating cost recovery ratio is below 1.0, indicating that an 
operating subsidy is required under all options studied. Financial results are primarily driven by the operating costs 
of the service. While options with higher frequency or extended service result in higher ridership and incremental 
revenue, these are outweighed by the additional operational costs results in greater subsidy requirements.
The requirement of an operating subsidy is typical of bus and passenger rail projects in North America, particularly 
for projects with a focus on providing coverage to underserved areas. For comparison, other transportation services
achieved the following operating cost recovery ratios:
• Ontario Northland bus services: 0.809
• Ontario Northland Polar Bear Express rail services: 0.306
• GO Transit bus and rail services: 0.6410
• VIA Rail Windsor-Quebec Corridor services: 0.6911
• VIA Rail Long Haul services: 0.478
Table 22 and Table 23 show the financial results on an annual basis at the start of service in 2024 and at the 2041 
horizon year respectively. For most options (Option 5: Staged Service excluded), the growth in incremental revenue 
is outpaced by the growth in incremental operating costs. With inflation included, the total required subsidy 
increases between launch in the mid-2020s and 2041; however, with the growth in ridership, the per passenger 
subsidy decreases between launch and 2041 even after inflation is considered.
Option 5: Staged Service proposes an extension of rail service between launch and 2041, resulting in a greater 
increase in operating costs and subsidy requirement by 2041, relative to the other options.
9 Ontario Northland Transportation Commission Annual Report 2018-2019
10 Metrolinx Annual Report 2019-2020
11 VIA Rail Annual Report 2019 

54
Table 22: Annual Net Revenue (2024, YOE$)
Service Terminus Incremental 
Revenue
Incremental 
Operating Costs Required Subsidy New Users Subsidy per 
New User
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $1.7M to $1.8M $6.5M to $5.7M $4.8M to $3.8M 20.6K to 22.2K $233 to $172
B: Timmins $2.6M to $2.8M $10.7M to $9.0M $8.1M to $6.2M 29.3K to 32.1K $277 to $192
C: Cochrane $2.4M to $2.5M $10.7M to $8.9M $8.4M to $6.5M 27.4K to 28.6K $305 to $226
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $1.8M to $2.1M $7.7M to $6.7M $5.8M to $4.6M 22.2K to 25.5K $263 to $179
B: Timmins $2.8M to $3.2M $12.7M to $10.7M $9.9M to $7.5M 31.6K to 36.7K $315 to $203
C: Cochrane $2.5M to $2.8M $12.7M to $10.6M $10.2M to $7.8M 29.5K to 32.8K $345 to $238
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $2.4M to $3.3M $14.5M to $13.5M $12.1M to $10.2M 28.8K to 40.4K $421 to $252
B: Timmins $3.6M to $5.0M $23.8M to $21.7M $20.2M to $16.7M 41.0K to 57.4K $492 to $290
C: Cochrane $3.3M to $4.4M $23.8M to $21.7M $20.5M to $17.2M 38.4K to 51.6K $533 to $334
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $1.7M to $1.7M $6.5M to $5.7M $4.8M to $3.9M 20.3K to 21.2K $239 to $185
B: Timmins $2.5M to $2.6M $10.7M to $9.0M $8.2M to $6.4M 28.5K to 29.7K $288 to $215
C: Cochrane $2.3M to $2.3M $10.7M to $8.9M $8.4M to $6.6M 26.7K to 26.7K $315 to $248
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $1.7M to $1.8M $6.5M to $5.7M $4.8M to $3.8M 20.6K to 22.2K $233 to $172
C: Cochrane $1.7M to $1.8M $6.5M to $5.7M $4.8M to $3.8M 20.6K to 22.2K $233 to $172
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $1.6M to $1.7M $5.2M to $4.5M $3.6M to $2.8M 19.8K to 20.5K $180 to $138
B: Timmins $2.5M to $2.6M $8.6M to $7.3M $6.2M to $4.6M 28.2K to 29.8K $218 to $156
C: Cochrane $2.3M to $2.3M $8.6M to $7.2M $6.4M to $4.9M 26.4K to 26.5K $242 to $187
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

55
Table 23: Annual Net Revenue (2041, YOE$)
Service Terminus Incremental 
Revenue
Incremental 
Operating Costs Required Subsidy New Users Subsidy per 
New User
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $2.2M to $2.4M $7.7M to $6.7M $5.5M to $4.3M 26.6K to 28.6K $208 to $152
B: Timmins $3.3M to $3.6M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.4M to $7.0M 37.8K to 41.3K $248 to $169
C: Cochrane $3.0M to $3.2M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.7M to $7.4M 35.3K to 36.8K $274 to $201
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $2.4M to $2.7M $9.1M to $7.9M $6.7M to $5.2M 28.6K to 32.9K $236 to $158
B: Timmins $3.6M to $4.2M $15.1M to $12.6M $11.5M to $8.5M 40.7K to 47.3K $283 to $180
C: Cochrane $3.3M to $3.6M $15.1M to $12.6M $11.8M to $9.0M 38.0K to 42.2K $311 to $212
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $3.1M to $4.3M $17.2M to $16.0M $14.1M to $11.7M 37.1K to 52.0K $381 to $225
B: Timmins $4.6M to $6.5M $28.1M to $25.7M $23.5M to $19.2M 52.8K to 73.9K $445 to $260
C: Cochrane $4.2M to $5.7M $28.1M to $25.6M $23.9M to $19.9M 49.5K to 66.5K $483 to $300
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $2.2M to $2.3M $7.7M to $6.7M $5.6M to $4.4M 26.1K to 27.3K $213 to $163
B: Timmins $3.2M to $3.4M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.5M to $7.3M 36.7K to 38.2K $258 to $190
C: Cochrane $3.0M to $3.0M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.7M to $7.6M 34.4K to 34.5K $283 to $221
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins $3.3M to $3.6M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.4M to $7.0M 37.8K to 41.3K $248 to $169
C: Cochrane $3.0M to $3.2M $12.7M to $10.6M $9.7M to $7.4M 35.3K to 36.8K $274 to $201
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $2.1M to $2.2M $6.2M to $5.4M $4.1M to $3.2M 25.6K to 26.5K $159 to $120
B: Timmins $3.2M to $3.4M $10.2M to $8.6M $7.0M to $5.2M 36.4K to 38.4K $194 to $136
C: Cochrane $2.9M to $2.9M $10.2M to $8.6M $7.3M to $5.6M 34.0K to 34.1K $216 to $165
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding.
Table 24 presents the financial performance of all options over the 60-year evaluation period. The net revenue 
further deteriorates with the addition of capital expenditures over the evaluation period. 

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Table 24: Financial Case Summary (present value, 2019$)
Service Terminus Total Capital Costs Incremental Operating 
& Maintenance Costs
Incremental 
Revenue Impact Net Revenue
Operating 
Cost Recovery 
Ratio
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $159.9M to $138.8M $44.5M to $47.9M -$143.8M to -$117.5M 0.28 to 0.35
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $263.1M to $220.2M $67.4M to $73.6M -$255.5M to -$204.7M 0.26 to 0.33
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $263.1M to $219.0M $61.4M to $64.0M -$259.4M to -$211.0M 0.23 to 0.29
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay $38.6M to $36.9M $188.3M to $163.7M $47.8M to $55.0M -$179.1M to -$145.5M 0.25 to 0.34
B: Timmins $73.9M to $72.2M $312.1M to $262.1M $72.4M to $84.2M -$313.5M to -$250.0M 0.23 to 0.32
C: Cochrane $71.8M to $70.1M $312.1M to $260.7M $66.1M to $73.4M -$317.9M to -$257.4M 0.21 to 0.28
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay $80.2M to $78.5M $356.0M to $331.3M $62.1M to $87.0M -$374.1M to -$322.8M 0.17 to 0.26
B: Timmins $116.7M to $115.0M $583.0M to $533.0M $94.0M to $131.7M -$605.6M to -$516.2M 0.16 to 0.25
C: Cochrane $114.6M to $113.0M $583.0M to $531.5M $86.0M to $115.6M -$611.6M to -$528.9M 0.15 to 0.22
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $159.9M to $138.8M $43.7M to $45.6M -$144.5M to -$119.8M 0.27 to 0.33
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $263.1M to $220.2M $65.4M to $68.1M -$257.4M to -$210.2M 0.25 to 0.31
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $263.1M to $219.0M $59.9M to $59.9M -$261.0M to -$215.2M 0.23 to 0.27
Option 5: 
Staged 
Service
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $231.3M to $195.2M $60.6M to $66.0M -$230.5M to -$187.2M 0.26 to 0.34
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $231.3M to $194.3M $56.4M to $59.3M -$232.7M to -$191.1M 0.24 to 0.30
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay $28.3M to $26.6M $128.0M to $111.3M $42.8M to $44.3M -$113.6M to -$93.6M 0.33 to 0.40
B: Timmins $59.8M to $58.1M $212.2M to $178.2M $64.8M to $68.3M -$207.2M to -$168.0M 0.31 to 0.38
C: Cochrane $57.7M to $56.0M $212.2M to $177.3M $59.0M to $59.3M -$210.9M to -$174.0M 0.28 to 0.33
*Figures may not add to totals due to rounding. 

57
7
Deliverability and Operations Case 

58
Introduction
The Deliverability and Operations Case is an analysis of investment delivery, operations and maintenance, service 
plans and any other issues that may prevent the realization of an option. This includes delivering the project from 
original concept through to planning, design, environmental assessment, partner/stakeholder engagement, 
procurement, construction and operations. The Deliverability and Operations Case is one of two cases (the other 
being the Financial Case) focused on requirements for delivering the investment.
Project Delivery
Project Sponsor
Ontario Northland is the primary sponsor of this service, with Metrolinx providing technical support and expertise 
for the project evaluation and implementation phases.
The majority of assets, including some stations and all new rolling stock, delivered through the service will be 
owned by Ontario Northland. Ownership of new corridor infrastructure, however, would be retained by the owner 
of the respective rail corridor, with certain access rights being granted to Ontario Northland.
Major Project Components
Rail Corridor Infrastructure
The service will primarily operate on existing rail corridors that are owned and operated by Metrolinx, Ontario 
Northland or CN. These corridors are currently in use for existing passenger or freight rail services and are not 
anticipated to require significant upgrades. Minor upgrades to the corridor are proposed to allow for the operation 
a safe and reliable service. The corridor infrastructure improvements proposed under each option are summarized 
in Table 25. 

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Table 25: Rail Corridor Infrastructure Requirements
Service Terminus Rail Corridor Infrastructure Requirements
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay
• Reinstatement of track between the Newmarket Subdivision and North Bay station
• Spot improvements of track to ensure the safety of the service, and raise line speeds
• Minimal passing track construction (1.5 miles)
B: Timmins
Scope of Option 1A, plus:
• Additional spot improvements of track between North Bay and Timmins
• Track rehabilitation on Ramore Subdivision near Timmins
• New layover for train storage and light maintenance in Timmins
C: Cochrane
Scope of Option 1A, plus:
• Additional spot improvements of track between North Bay and Cochrane
• Track modifications to provide a passenger train route through Cochrane Yard
• New layover for train storage and light maintenance in Cochrane
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay Scope of Option 1A, plus:
• Additional passing track to improve service reliability (2.5 miles in total)
B: Timmins Scope of Option 1B, plus:
• Additional passing track to improve service reliability (2.5 miles in total)
C: Cochrane Scope of Option 1C, plus:
• Additional passing track to improve service reliability (2.5 miles in total)
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay
Scope of Option 2A, plus:
• Passing tracks at regular intervals to facilitate train meets (4.5 miles in total)
• Additional track improvements to remove slow orders
B: Timmins
Scope of Option 2B, plus:
• Passing tracks at regular intervals to facilitate train meets (4.5 miles in total)
• Additional layover track capacity in Timmins
• Additional track improvements to remove slow orders
C: Cochrane
Scope of Option 2B, plus:
• Passing tracks at regular intervals to facilitate train meets (4.5 miles in total)
• Additional layover track capacity in Cochrane
• Additional track improvements to remove slow orders
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay Scope of Option 1A
B: Timmins Scope of Option 1B
C: Cochrane Scope of Option 1C
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins Scope of Option 1B
C: Cochrane Scope of Option 1C
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay Scope of Option 1A
B: Timmins Scope of Option 1B
C: Cochrane Scope of Option 1C 

60
Train Stop Infrastructure
Following the termination of the Northlander train service, operations at most of the existing rail stations were 
discontinued and the station assets were divested, except for those that remain in use by GO Transit or VIA Rail. 
The Northeastern Passenger Rail Service would need to reinstate former stations or construct new shelters or 
stations. 
The infrastructure for a typical station on the corridor includes a side rail platform, heated station shelters, 
passenger information displays and CCTV monitoring. Under the Reinstated Service options (Option 1), ticketing 
infrastructure will not be provided at stations. Passengers would need to purchase tickets on-board or online prior 
to boarding the trains. 
All Northern Ontario stops (including terminal stations at North Bay and Timmins / Cochrane) are expected to 
facilitate transfers from the Ontario Northland bus network. These locations will provide additional bus stop 
infrastructure, as well as a station building to provide additional amenities for passengers.
Table 26 provides a summary of the status of the proposed stations, and the required infrastructure improvements 
for the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service. 

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Table 26: Train stop requirements
Station Applicable 
Terminus Variants Status Station Infrastructure Requirements
Toronto Union 
Station All Existing GO and VIA rail station with multiple 
GO island platforms None
Langstaff All Existing GO station with single side GO 
platform
None
Gormley All Existing GO station with single side GO 
platform
None
Washago All Existing VIA station with single side VIA 
platform
Construct new infrastructure for passenger 
rail service; base station scope
Gravenhurst All Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
divested
Purchase or lease property and reinstate 
station; base station scope
Bracebridge All Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
divested
Purchase or lease property and reinstate 
station; base station scope
Huntsville All Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
divested
Purchase or lease property and reinstate 
station; base station scope
North Bay All
Former Northlander station and existing 
Ontario Northland bus terminal with single 
side Ontario Northland platform
None
Temagami Timmins, Cochrane Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
owned by Ontario Northland Construct new station; base station scope
Temiskaming 
Shores Timmins, Cochrane Previous station location, lands owned by 
Ontario Northland Construct new station; base station scope
Englehart Timmins, Cochrane Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
owned by Ontario Northland Reinstate station with base station scope. 
Station requires upgrades
Matheson Timmins, Cochrane Discontinued Northlander station, lands 
owned by Ontario Northland Station requires major upgrades
Timmins (South 
Porcupine) Timmins New station location
Purchase or lease property and construct new 
station; terminal station with station building 
and bus facilities
Cochrane Cochrane Existing Polar Bear Express station with single 
side Ontario Northland platform None
Rolling Stock Requirements
All options will require additional rolling stock to operate the service. As a basis for analysis, the business case 
assumed that the trains will consist of a locomotive, accessibility coach and cab car. The Enhanced and Twice Daily 
service options will also include onboard storage of food and beverages. 

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The number of train consists required for each option depends on the frequency and cycle time for the service. 
Table 27 summarizes the number of train consists required for each option. These figures do not include spares 
required for redundancy and service reliability.
Table 27: Rolling Stock Requirements
Service Terminus Train Consists Required
Option 1: 
Reinstated 
Service
A: North Bay 1
B: Timmins 2
C: Cochrane 2
Option 2: 
Enhanced 
Service
A: North Bay 1
B: Timmins 2
C: Cochrane 2
Option 3: 
Twice Daily 
Service
A: North Bay 2
B: Timmins 4
C: Cochrane 4
Option 4: 
Daytime 
Service
A: North Bay 1
B: Timmins 2
C: Cochrane 2
Option 5: 
Staged Service
B: Timmins 2
C: Cochrane 2
Option 6: 
Seasonally 
Adjusted 
Service
A: North Bay 1
B: Timmins 2
C: Cochrane 2
An allowance for rolling stock procurement is included in the cost estimates for the service. The next stage of 
detailed planning work would explore the most cost-effective approach to securing the rolling stock, including 
refurbishment of existing equipment or purchase of second-hand equipment.
Environmental Assessment Requirements
The majority of the capital works for this service involve rehabilitation or reinstatement of existing infrastructure, 
or the addition of sidings to existing rail corridors. Further analysis will be undertaken to determine if an 
environmental assessment is required. 

63
Both northern extension options will require a new shelter servicing Temiskaming Shores, while the extension to 
Timmins will also require a new station in Timmins. Timmins was not served by the previous Northlander line. 
Implementation of train stops in Timmins may require an environmental assessment.
Operations during Construction
The proposed infrastructure scope generally involves rehabilitation of existing track and construction of new 
passing tracks and station platforms adjacent to the existing track. These works are not expected to require long 
term closures of the railway, and can be conducted under planned protections, overnight closures or weekend 
closures. Works would need to be planned to maintain safety of both construction and railway operations.
Operations and Maintenance
Roles and Responsibilities
Ontario Northland will be responsible for the routine operation and maintenance of the service. This includes
staffing at terminal stations, ticket sales, crewing on trains, as well as maintenance of the rolling stock. Metrolinx 
will support the operations if required, such as emergency rolling stock maintenance at Willowbrook Yard or 
Emergency Support Services in the event of a train being disabled on a journey.
Metrolinx, Ontario Northland and CN are responsible for the operation and maintenance of corridor infrastructure 
within their respective rail corridors. Existing GO stations will continue to be operated and maintained by Metrolinx, 
while Ontario Northland will be responsible for any new rail stations.
Service Plan
All options will operate one trip per day (on days of operation) in each direction, except the Twice Daily Service 
options which propose two trips per day in each direction. The Northeastern Passenger Rail Serviceproposes new 
passing track infrastructure to facilitate train meets between Ontario Northland, Metrolinx, VIA and CN trains. The 
locations of these passing tracks will be determined through more detailed operational modelling in subsequent 
phases of service development. 
The Reinstated Service, Daytime Service, Staged Service and Seasonally Adjusted Service options carry a minimal 
allowance for new track construction. This limits the number of locations where trains can pass, which would 
require precisely timed train meets and can lead to service delays. The Enhanced Service options carry a greater 
allowance for passing tracks to offer a more resilient service, while the Twice Daily Service options will provide 
passing tracks at regular intervals throughout the length of the corridor to further improve service reliability.
Trains will layover during the midday and overnight between trips. This will be facilitated through GO Transit’s 
existing layover yards in Toronto and a layover yard at the northern terminus of the service. The northern layover 
yard would provide storage, as well as facilities for light maintenance. With a terminus in North Bay, the existing 
Ontario Northland yards will be used for the layover. If the service terminus is located in Timmins or Cochrane, then 
a new layover yard would be required. Cochrane currently has a layover yard that would only require upgrades, 
compared to a new greenfield build in Timmins. 

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Project Dependencies
Rail Operating Agreements
The service will require an operating agreement between Metrolinx and Ontario Northland, which outlines the 
roles and responsibilities of each agency in relation to this service. The agreement would also outline the running 
rights of the service within Metrolinx-owned territory on the Bala Subdivision and the Union Station Rail Corridor.
Additionally, the service will require negotiations with CN for access to their portions of the Bala and Newmarket 
Subdivisions between Toronto and North Bay. This would include establishing the allowable passenger train 
frequencies, available time blocks for train movements, as well as interfaces between passenger and freight rail 
services where crossover movements between tracks are required.
The on-time performance of the rail service is a key driver in achieving the projected ridership and delivering 
benefits for passengers. This metric is dependent on CN handling of the passenger trains on their territory and
should be considered within the discussions for corridor access.
Ontario Northland owns the required rail corridors beyond North Bay, so no additional negotiations would be 
required to establish the service extension options to Timmins or Cochrane.
Other Partner and Stakeholder Negotiations
Following the termination of the previous Northlander rail service, most stations on the corridor between Toronto 
and North Bay were divested. Ontario Northland will work with municipalities to confirm support for passenger rail 
services in their community and establish an acceptable location and station/shelter.
Ontario Northland continues to own and operate the rail corridors between Timmins / Cochrane and North Bay. 
This business case assumes that infrastructure required for the train stops can be located within the existing 
corridor rights-of-way, and no additional lands will be required. The proposed terminal station in Timmins is 
expected to be a larger facility that facilitates transfers to bus services. This location is anticipated to require
negotiations with stakeholders to secure the property for the station facilities.
Station Access
While the Northeastern Passenger Rail Service provides an inter-community passenger transportation connection 
between Northern Ontario and the GGH, there is generally low population density in the immediate vicinity of the 
proposed station locations, and the proposed station scope does not include the provision of parking facilities. 
Station access is expected to primarily be accommodated through third party parking facilities in the vicinity of the 
station (e.g., municipal or private parking lots), pick-up / drop-off, taxi, or other ridesharing options. At the 
proposed terminal facilities, transfers from Ontario Northland buses are also available. The benefits of the service
are dependent on convenient access to the station and service. The station access options, and any required 
supporting infrastructure, should be investigated in more detail as the service advances through subsequent phases 
of development. 

65
Conclusion
All options analyzed through this Initial Business Case are technically feasible but have challenges in the 
deliverability and operations of the service. In all cases, deliverability of the service will be dependent on agreement 
with third-party stakeholders to share an existing corridor and reinstate former stations. Generally, the options that 
only extend service to North Bay performs better on the deliverability considerations due to the smaller project 
scope. However, based on partner and stakeholder feedback, the full project scope to Timmins or Cochrane would 
address transportation needs in the region. 

66
8
Business Case Summary 

67
Introduction
This chapter summarizes the findings of the four-case evaluation, provides a recommendation on the option(s) to 
be advanced for preliminary design, and highlights additional work or investigations that are required to confirm 
the findings of this business case.
Investment Review
Strategic Case
The implementation of rail service along the Northeastern Rail Corridor provides strategic benefits aligned with the 
planning and policy objectives of the Province of Ontario. Strategic benefits are divided into four key outcome 
areas:
• Transportation: Rail service provides a more reliable transportation mode that is resilient against 
congestion and disruptions on the road network. By operating within a separate right-of-way, it provides a 
redundant transportation corridor for Northern Ontario in the event of a highway closure.12
• Quality of Life: Passenger rail transportation provides disadvantaged individuals and remote communities in 
the north, including Indigenous communities, with a more comfortable (i.e., ability to move around on a 
long journey) and additional travel option with which to reach specialized services across Northern Ontario 
and in the GGH. 
• Economic and Regional Development: Passenger rail transportation connects small and medium population
centres within Northern Ontario, connects Northern Ontario to the economy of the GGH, increases tourism, 
and facilitates the exchange of goods, services and expertise along the corridor. The additional capacity and 
travel time reliability achieved through the implementation of passenger rail transportation will also 
improve the travel experience of tourists to Northern Ontario.
• Sustainable Environment: Rail service diverts long distance car trips to a potentially more energy efficient 
and lower emission transportation mode per passenger-kilometer, assuming there is sufficient mode shift 
from current auto-based modes. 
Options that extend the service to Timmins or Cochrane provide stronger strategic benefits by extending service to 
more remote and underserved communities north of North Bay. The Timmins terminus provides improved strategic 
benefits relative to the Cochrane terminus by serving a larger population centre. In addition, the Enhanced Service 
and Twice Daily Service options provide improvements to the customer experience and reliability benefits for 
passengers.
Economic Case
All options will generate economic benefits; however, these are outweighed by the associated cost of the service.
This results in a negative net present value and a benefit-cost ratio that is less than 1.013
. The benefit-cost ratio over 
12 Air serves this role currently, although air services along the corridor have been temporarily suspended. 
Without any further evidence, it is too early to conclude that air services along the corridor will remain suspended 
for a longer period and the proposed rail service (if re-instated) would serve air travellers.
13 The results of the analysis assume the impact of COVID-19 will have a negligible effect on the near-term and 
longer term ridership and benefits. 

68
the 60-year evaluation period ranges between 0.23 to 0.52 in the conservative scenario, and between 0.41 to 0.74
in the optimistic scenario.
Options that increase service frequency or extend service further north generate greater total benefits, however, 
these do not outweigh the additional costs to deliver the service. Of the two possible extension options, Timmins
outperforms Cochrane in terms of both total economic benefits, as well as benefit cost-ratio.
Financial Case
From a financial perspective, all options result in incremental operating costs that outweigh the incremental 
revenue of the project. As a result, all options will require a subsidy to sustain operations. The operating cost 
recovery ratio over the 60-year evaluation period ranges between 0.15 to 0.33 under the conservative scenario and 
0.22 to 0.40 in the optimistic scenario.
At the start of operations in the mid-2020s, the service is projected to require an annual operating subsidy of 
between $3.6M to $20.5M in the conservative scenario, and between $2.8M to $17.2M in the optimistic scenario. 
By 2041, the required annual subsidy will increase to $4.1M to $23.9M in the conservative scenario, and between 
$3.2M to $19.9M in the optimistic scenario.
Options that provide greater frequency or extend the service terminus do not generate sufficient ridership and 
revenue to offset the additional operational costs.
Deliverability and Operations Case
All options propose infrastructure improvements primarily within existing rail corridors, as well as the 
reinstatement of existing stations. Options that provide service to North Bay require less infrastructure work and 
would be easier to deliver. In particular, the construction of a new station in the Timmins region may require an 
environmental assessment approval before work can begin.
Operationally, the options that propose additional infrastructure upgrades (e.g. passing tracks, sidings, etc.) provide 
additional flexibility in scheduling train meets and enhance service reliability. The Enhanced Service options and 
Twice Daily Service options provide improved reliability.
The key project dependency for all options is agreement with CN to allow for the operation of passenger rail service 
on the Bala and Newmarket Subdivisions between Toronto and North Bay.
Next Steps 
Once an option is selected for further project development, an Updated Business Case will begin assessing the 
preferred option at a more detailed level of analysis further refining project scope, benefits and costs. Analysis to 
be undertaken through the preliminary design phase includes:
• Train modelling to confirm the operability of the service pattern and schedule, as well as the optimal 
locations for passing tracks;
• More detailed service planning, including consideration of parallel and connecting bus services, to 
maximizing connectivity, while rationalizing service levels;
• Refinement of modelling parameters as new data becomes available, including:
o Capital, operating and maintenance costs;
o External benefits (i.e., GHG benefits, congestion benefits); 

69
o Impacts of customer amenities on ridership and benefits;
• Further analysis of rolling stock to determine the option that best meets customer needs, while providing 
value for money;
• Negotiations with CN to secure track access for the service, and confirm the scope of any corridor 
infrastructure required to operate the service; and,
• Design of corridor, station and shelter infrastructure, and development of more detailed cost estimates. 

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Glossary
Term Definition
Initial Business Case 
(IBC)
The first Business Case prepared for a project in line with part two of Metrolinx’s stage 
gate process (Feasibility and Options Analysis). The IBC compares potential investments 
to identify if there is merit in further design and development.
Greater Toronto and 
Hamilton Area 
(GTHA)
The combined area of the Cities of Hamilton, and Toronto; and the Regions of Durham, 
Halton, Peel, and York.
Greater Golden 
Horseshoe (GGH)
The combined area of the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, as well as the Cities of 
Barrie, Branford, Guelph, Kawartha Lakes, Orillia, Peterborough; the Counties of Brant, 
Dufferin, Haldimand, Northumberland, Peterborough, Simcoe, and Wellington; and the 
Regions of Niagara and Waterloo.
Business As Usual 
(BAU)
A scenario used in Business Case analysis that reflects the future state of the region 
(including population, employment, and the transportation network) without the 
investment that is appraised in the Business Case.
Net Present Value The total economic value of a project. Determined by subtracting project costs from its 
total benefits. A positive Net Present Value indicates that the project’s benefits exceed 
its costs
Mode Share The percentage of person-trips made by one mode of travel relative to the total number 
of trips made by all modes.
Vehicle-Kilometres 
Travelled
A measure of roadway use, commonly used in estimating congestion, that reflects the 
distance that an individual drives or, more typically, the cumulative distance driven by all 
vehicles during a specified period of time. Vehicle kilometres travelled can reflect the link 
between land use and transportation. Land uses that are further away from each other 
result in longer trip lengths, more traffic on roadways and more vehicle kilometres 
travelled, for example
Benefit Cost Ratio 
(BCR)
An economic indicator that reflects the relationship between benefits and costs of an 
investment. A BCR greater than 1 indicates the projects benefits exceed costs. 