Moving past Kyoto...
Recent statements by the Bush administration on
the Kyoto Protocol, climate change and regulation
of CO2 provide new realism on these serious issues. The protocol ineffectively addresses the
long-term risks of climate change, yet its obligations would impose dramatic economic costs
throughout the developed world, particularly the
United States. It is essential to move to more
practical and politically attainable approaches that
recognize the need for affordable energy in our daily
lives.
The inability of governments to reach agreement
on the protocol last November in The Hague highlights the protocol's fundamental flaws. Leading the
list is the growing recognition
that most governments cannot meet the politically
chosen targets without resorting to economywrecking measures. Fine-tuning the targets and
timetables, as some recommend, cannot save
Kyoto. An understanding of Kyoto's problems is
important if we are to develop truly effective approaches to managing the risks of climate
change:
Kyoto was too much too soon. Its initial
carbon targets would require massive reductions
in energy use within a few years, with further substantial reductions to follow. Political goals were
set without a sober assessment of economic and
technical realities or public toleration of major
lifestyle changes. This was reckless given the central role played by energy in all economies.
It tried to force technological change
without a realistic appraisal of the long time frames
needed for new technologies to succeed in the
marketplace and gain worldwide acceptance.

Kyoto failed to include developing countries in its commitments. Since most energy
growth will occur there, the protocol would do little
to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet
poorer countries need more energy if they are to
provide economic growth and a better life for their
people.
Kyoto required a vast global regulatory
regime that would be implemented using untried
policies through new and extensive international and national bureaucracies. Negotiations revealed the likelihood of serious unintended
consequences from the
complex procedures being
formulated to manage global
carbon emissions.
Kyoto was fatally politicized. Activists closed off important options
(such as hydropower, advanced coal technology,
nuclear energy and carbon sinks) based on ideological intransigence. Scientifically unfounded
scare scenarios were and continue to be promoted in an effort to justify the protocol.
The stalemate in The Hague and a new administration in Washington provide an opportunity
to develop a sounder approach.
Without ignoring the seriousness of the
issue, it is time to move beyond Kyoto and to
focus on more effective steps to manage the longterm risk of climate change. These include technology research and development, science that
addresses fundamental gaps, economically based
voluntary actions and an international approach
that meets the aspirations of all the world's people.
We elaborate on these points in the space
nearby.

More practical
and politically attainable approaches are
needed.

TM

www.exxonmobil.com

© 2001 Exxon Mobil Corporation