Directions for climate research
Climate science is experiencing rapid development fueled by significant research budgets and
spurred by important policy needs. Progress
has occurred in generating new knowledge and
in better delineating gaps and uncertainties that
limit our current ability to know the extent to
which humans are affecting climate and to predict future changes caused by both human and
natural forces.
Expansion of scientific
knowledge will take time and
money. It requires extensive
long-term data acquisition,
breakthroughs in theoretical
understanding of key climate
processes, efforts to reconstruct better information
about past climate, and the
development of more-sophisticated computer
models to assess understanding and simulate
future climate changes.
Research should include two major
thrusts. One supports curiosity-driven and bluesky research. The pursuit of this type of knowledge will certainly lead to unanticipated results
that may help overcome current gaps.
Universities will likely take the lead in such research, which is one reason we are supporting
climate-related research efforts at major universities, including Stanford and MIT. University
programs will also help train students who will
be needed to address these challenges over
coming decades.
Research should also be designed and
carefully managed to address policy needs.
Government agencies should design programs
that address the most important major areas of
scientific uncertainty. The U.S. should also es-

tablish a structured effort to assess the consequences of climate change (accounting for both
facts and uncertainties) and the feasibility and
effectiveness of policies to adapt to and mitigate
climate change.
Areas of uncertainty that require attention
have been identified in numerous reports, including several by the National Research
Council. Important areas include the role of
clouds and aerosols (small
particles in the atmosphere),
natural climate variability,
oceanic currents and heat
transfer, the hydrological
cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict
changes on a regional and
local scale.
Agency-led programs should aim to: (1)
better quantify levels of uncertainty and explain
their relevance for policy decisions, (2) define
and conduct studies to resolve uncertainty and
(3) report periodically on results and progress.
These programs would benefit from well-structured, independent scientific reviews to assure
quality and to steer future efforts based on
progress. Research does not always eliminate
uncertainty, but such programs will lead to better understanding of what we know and do not
know and how our knowledge may affect policy
decisions.
The U.S. can be proud of its leadership —
over several administrations — in advancing climate research. Despite differing views on what
near-term policies are appropriate for addressing climate concerns, an ongoing investment in
research will be essential to informing long-term,
science-based decisions.

Research
should address
policy needs

Visit exxonmobil.com