CLASSIFICATION: ENVELOPE usc ?424 ZEN-55555- HEADER 0508392 AUG 12 1o uac wanna; so use 3024;; (mm use use ?3n24m RHMFISSICDR USTRANSCOM SCOTT AFB IL DC M3150 SE mm RHEFHLCIDEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON DC USC RHMFISSIDEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY WASHINGTON RUEHCIDEPT OF STATE WASHINGTON mum-so WASHINGTON DC ?3?3 5 WASHINGTON DC DC mm 50 USC ?3024m STAFF WASHINGTON 3TSDUSC 302' I A A A ASHIN TON DC muse USC 302%] RUEKJCSISECDEF WASHINGTON (bxayiao uscg WASHINGTON DC 302"? mar-50 use 5 302401 SCENTCOM CEN MACDILL AFB RUMICENUSCENTCOM CEN MACDILL AF FU RUZCISRIUSCENTCOM AFB 'b 3:50 use. 302 ?i (b36150 USC 3034(h BT CONTROLS SECTION 1 OF 3 SERIAL: (U) lu'buanu use ?424 I THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE max-1c. use gm BODY DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE REPORT, NOT FINALLY EVALUATED INTELIJGENCE. a - a -- - COUNTRY: (U) IRAQ (IRQ). r0031. 10 use 424 I Sec. 1. 4 10 000 424 (U) 20120730. {mus}: 10 use. use ?3024{i?. (001130: 1 4011 288 030 424 (11:11:33: 1. Hamlin Sec. 1. 41m THE GENERAL SITUATION: A. INTERNALLY, EVENTS ARE TAKING A CLEAR SECTARIAN DIRECTION. B. THE THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD. AND AQI ARE THE MAJOR FORCES DRIVING THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA. C. THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES. AND SUPPORT THE WHILE RUSSIA CHINA AND SUPPORT THE REGIME. Imam 39:: I ma B. THE PRIORITY IS TO CONCENTRATE ITS PRESENCE IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST (TARTUS, AND HOWEVER, IT HAS NOT ABANDONED HOMS BECAUSE IT CONTROLS THE MAJOR TRANSPORTATION ROUTES IN SYRIA. THE REGIME DECREASED ITS CONCENTRATION IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDERS HASAKA AND DER ZOR). 3. e9} AL QAEDA - IRAQ (AQI): A. AQI 15 FAMILIAR WITH SYRIA. AQI IRAINED IN SYRIA AND THEN INFILTRATED INTO IRAQ. B. AQI SUPPORTED THE SYRIAN OPPOSITION FROM THE BEGINNING, BOTH IDEOLOGICALLY AND THROUGH THE MEDIA. AQI DECLARED ITS OPPOSITION OF GOVERNMENT BECAUSE IT CONSIDERED IT A REGIME TARGETING SUNNIS. C. AQI CONDUCTED A NUMBER OF OPERATIONS IN SEVERAL SYRIAN CITIES UNDER THE NAME OF JAISH AL NUSRA (VICTORIOUS ARMY), ONE OF ITS AFFILIATES. D. AQI, THROUGH THE SPOKESMAN OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ (ISI), ABU MUHAMMAD AL ADNANI, DECLARED THE SYRIAN REGIME AS THE OF WHAT HE IS NAMING IIBHA AL RUWAFDII (FOREFRONT OF THE SHIITES) BECAUSE OF ITS (THE SYRIAN REGIME) DECLARATION OF WAR ON THE ADDITIONALLY. HE IS CALLING ON THE SUNNIS IN IRAQ, ESPECIALLY THE TRIBES IN THE BORDER REGIONS (BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA), TO WAGE WAR AGAINST THE SYRIAN REGIME, REGARDING SYRIA AS AN INFIDEL REGIME FOR ITS SUPPORT TO THE INFIDEL PARTY HEZBOLLAH, AND OTHER REGIMES HE 289 Imm- ID use. 5424 CONSIDERS DISSENTERS LIKE IRAN AND IRAQ- E. AQI CONSIDERS THE SUNNI ISSUE IN IRAQ TO BE FATEFULLY CONNECTED TO THE SUNNI ARABS AND MUSLIMS. 4. THE BORDERS: A. THE BORDERS BETWEEN SYRIA AND IRAQ STRETCH APPROXIMATELY 600m WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN CONSISTING OF A VAST DESERT, MOUNTAIN RANGES (SINI AR MOUNTAIN S). JOINT RIVERS ON BOTH SIDES). AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS. B. IRAQ DIRECTLY NEIGHBORS THE SYRIAN PROVINCES OF HASARA AND DER ZOR. AS WELL AS (SYRIAN) CITIES ADJACENT TO THE IRAQI BORDER. C. THE LAND ON BOTH SIDES BETWEEN IRAQ AND SYRIA IS A VAST DESERT PUNCTUATED BY VALLEYS, AND IT LACKS TRANSPORTATION ROUTES, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL HIGHWAY AND SOME MAJOR CITIES. 5. (6) THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER: A. THE POPULATION LIVING ON THE BORDER HAS A SOCIAL-TRIBAL STYLE, WHICH IS BOUND BY STRONG TRIBAL AND FAMILIAL MARITAL TIES. B. THEIR SECIARIAN AFFILIATION UNITES THE TWO SIDES WHEN EVENTS HAPPEN IN THE REGION. C. AQI HAD MAJOR POCKETS AND BASES ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BORDER TO FACILITATE THE FLOW OF MATERIEL AND RECRUITS. D. THERE WAS A REGRESSION OF AQI IN THE WESTERN PROVINCES OF IRAQ DURING THE YEARS OF 2009 AND 2010; HOWEVER, AFTER THE RISE OF THE INSURGENCY IN SYRIA, THE RELIGIOUS AND TRIBAL POWERS IN THE REGIONS BEGAN TO SYMPATHIZE WITH THE SECTARIAN UPRISING. THIS (SYMPATI-IY) APPEARED IN FRIDAY PRAYER SERMONS, WHICH CALLED FOR VOLUNTEERS TO SUPPORT THE IN SYRIA. 6. (6) THE SITUATION ON THE IRAQI AND SYRIAN BORDER: A. THREE BORDER BDES ARE SUFFICIENT TO CONTROL THE BORDERS DURING PEACE TIME FOR OBSERVATION DUTIES AND TO PREVENT SMUGGLING AND INFILTRATION. [him See. 1. 4 La: C. IN PREVIOUS YEARS A MAJORITY OF AQI FIGHTERS ENTERED IRAQ PRIMARILY VIA THE SYRIAN BORDER. 7. (63- THE FUTURE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE CRISIS: A. THE REGIME WILL SURVIVE AND HAVE CONTROL OVER SYRIAN TERRITORY 290 libi??. 10 USC ?424 B. DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT EVENTS INTO PROXY WAR: WITH SUPPORT FROM RUSSIA, CHINA. AND IRAN, THE REGIME IS CONTROLLING THE AREAS OF INFLUENCE ALONG COASTAL TERRITORIES (TARTU AND LATAKIA), AND IS FIERCELY DEFENDING HOMS. WHICH IS CONSIDERED TIIE PRIMARY TRANSPORTATION ROUTE IN SYRIA. ON THE OTHER HAND, OPPOSITION FORCES ARE TRYING TO CONTROL THE EASTERN AREAS (HASAKA AND DER 20R), ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN IRAQI PROVINCES (MOSUL AND ANBAR), IN ADDITION TO NEIGHBORING TURKISH BORDERS. WESTERN COUNTRIES, THE GULF STATES AND TURKEY ARE SUPPORTING THESE EFFORTS. THIS HYPOTHESIS IS MOST LIKELY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DATA FROM RECENT EVENTS, WHICH WILL HELP PREPARE SAFE HAVENS UNDER INTERNATIONAL SHELTERING, SIMILAR TO WHAT TRANSPIRED IN LIBYA WHEN BENGHAZI WAS CHOSEN AS THE COMMAND CENTER OF THE TEMPORARY GOVERNMENT. 8. THE EFFECTS ON IRAQ: AIMWW- I ISYRIAN REGIME BORDER FORCES RETREATED FROM THE BORDER AND THE OPPOSITION FORCES (SYRIAN FREE ARMY) TOOK OVER THE POSTS AND RAISED THEIR FLAG. THE IRAQI BORDER GUARD FORCES ARE FACING A BORDER WITH SYRIA THAT IS NOT GUARDED BY OFFICIAL ELEMENTS WHICH PRESENTS A DANGEROUS AND SERIOUS THREAT. B. THE OPPOSITION FORCES WILL TRY TO USE THE IRAQI TERRITORY AS A SAFE HAVEN FOR ITS FORCES TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE SYMPATHY OF THE IRAQI BORDER POPULATION, MEANWHILE TRYING TO RECRUIT FIGHTERS AND TRAIN THEM ON THE IRAQI SIDE, IN ADDITION TO HARRORING REFUGEES (SYRIA). C. IF THE SITUATION UNRAYELS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER 20R). AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME, WHICH IS CONSIDERED THE STRATEGIC DEPTH OF THE SHIA EXPANSION (IRAQ AND IRAN). THE DETERIORATION OF THE SITUATION HAS DIRE CONSEQUENCES ON THE IRAQI SITUATION AND ARE AS FOLLOWS: THIS CREATES THE IDEAL ATMOSPHERE FOR AQI TO RETURN TO ITS OLD POCKETS IN MOSUL AND RAMADL AND WILL PROVIDE A RENEWED MOMENTUM UNDER THE PRESUMPTION OF UNIFYING THE JIHAD AMONG SUNNI IRAQ AND SYRIA, AND THE REST OF THE SUNNIS THE ARAB WORLD AGAINST WHAT IT CONSIDERS ONE ENEMY, THE DISSENTERS. ISI COULD ALSO DECLARE AN ISLAMIC STATE THROUGH ITS UNION WITH OTHER ERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA, WHICH WILL CREATE GRAVE DANGER IN REGARDS TO UNIFYING IRAQ AND THE PROTECTION OF ITS TERRITORY. (hm) Sec 1. -I Sac. 1. 4 Id: 4-- - 291 USC 424 --3. THE FACILITATION 0F TERRORIST ELEMENTS FROM ALL OVER THE ARAB WORLD ENTERING INTO IRAQI ARENA. (W1use 5-124 Mann use ?424 292 use ?424 lib:{3} In use 42-1 ET #3497 CLASSIFICATION: use 424 293