Estimated Tax Reductions in Florida From 1999 and 2007
Summary
From 1999 to 2007 taxes in Florida were reduced by $19.3 billion (in 2007 dollars).
Data and Analysis
With the exception of the estate tax cut (discussed below), all tax measures estimates are derived
from the Fiscal Analysis in Brief.1 The Fiscal Analysis in Brief provides two-year revenue forecasts
for all legislative measures affecting revenue during a legislative year. Legislative actions potentially
affecting revenue could impact general revenue, trust fund revenue, or local revenue. The estimates
presented below show the total changes from these three revenue sources combined.
The two-year revenue estimates include “cash” estimates reflecting the change in revenue in the two
fiscal years following the legislative session. For example, the 1999 Fiscal Analysis in Brief contains
cash estimates for changes in revenue for the 1999-00 and 2000-01 fiscal years. These data are
presented in Table 1.
Table 1. Cash Revenue Changes (Nominal Dollars)
First Fiscal Year
Second Fiscal Year
Revenue
Revenue
Legislative
Change
Change
Year
Fiscal Year (Millions) Fiscal Year (Millions)
1999 1999-00
-$802 2000-00
-$685
2000 2000-00
-$450 2001-02
-$458
2001 2001-02
-$95 2002-03
-$89
2002 2002-03
-$215 2003-04
-$126
2003 2003-04
$176 2004-05
$96
2004 2004-05
-$92 2005-06
$158
2005 2005-06
-$103 2006-07
-$72
2006 2006-07
-$272 2007-08
-$282
Some of these tax changes are temporary tax cuts measures. For example, sales tax holidays typically
reduce taxes for only a single year. However, other cuts are “recurring” tax reductions. The revenue
effects from these permanent reductions are not estimated beyond the two-year budget window.
Table 2 provides the value of these recurring cuts as reported by the Fiscal Analysis in Brief. The
second fiscal year recurring estimates are used. For example, in the 1999 legislative session recurring
tax cuts totaled $660.3 million in the 1999-00 fiscal year and $681.7 in the 2000-01 fiscal year. The
analysis presented below uses the 2000-01 recurring cut of $681.7 as better estimates for how the
revenue measures in the 1999 legislative session would affect revenues in later years. Table 2
presents the second fiscal year recurring estimates for each legislative year.

1

The Fiscal Analysis in Brief (available here) is published annually by Florida’s Office of Economic
& Demographic Research. The tax cut data used for this analysis originate from the table entitled
“Measures Affecting Revenue and Tax Administration.”

 Table 2. Recurring Revenue Changes
Recurring Revenue
Change (Millions)

Legislative Year
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005

-681.7
-452.4
-138.5
14.3
120.5
167.5
-66.4

Fiscal Year of
Recurring
Amount
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07

Total State
and Local
Revenue
(Billions)
92.85
93.3
111.15
129
132.25
135.5
153.1

Recurring Revenue
Change as % of
Total Revenue
-0.7%
-0.5%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%

Notes: Historical revenue data is the total of state and local revenue for each year as reported by the U.S. Census
Bureau, State and Local Government Finance, available here. The Census Bureau does not provide revenue data for the
1999-00 and 2001-02 fiscal years. The average of the preceding and subsequent fiscal years are used for the
calculation. Also note that the recurring amount for the 2006 legislative year is excluded as the calculations below do
not extend beyond the 2007-08 fiscal year, and thus the recurring estimate is unnecessary.

To estimate the revenue impact of legislative actions in years, it is assumed that the size of the
recurring tax cut increases or decreases proportionally with changes in total revenue. For example, in
the 2001 legislative session, the estimated size of the recurring changes was -.1% in the 2002-03
fiscal year. In the 2003-04 fiscal year and in subsequent years, it is assumed that taxes were -.1%
lower due to the recurring changes made in the 2001 legislative session. Table 3 shows the annual
effect (in nominal dollars) of both cash tax changes and the expected recurring changes. The
recurring estimates are in bold.
Table 3. Nominal Revenue Changes from Cash and Recurring Estimates (Millions)
Legislati Fiscal Year
ve Year 1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 200700
00
02
03
04
05
06
07
08

1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total

-802

-685
-450

-685
-458
-95

-816
-539
-89
-215

-947
-626
-161
-126
176

-971
-641
-165
15
96
-92

-995
-657
-169
15
123
158
-103

-802

-1134

-1238

-1659

-1683

-1758

-1627

-1124
-742
-191
17
139
189
-72
-272
-2056

-1270
-839
-216
19
158
214
-75
-282
-2291

Total
Revenue
Change
From
Specific
Legislative
Session
-8295
-4951
-1085
-275
693
469
-250
-554
-14248

 Florida taxpayers also benefited from the phasing out of the state’s estate tax, which Gov. Bush
supported.
Table 4 provides estimates the reduction in tax liability from the phase-out. Revenue projections
without the phase-out are not available. For the purposes this analysis, it is assumed the estate tax
revenue would increase at 3.2% per year. This figure is equal to the average annual growth rate of
the estate tax revenue from the 1998-09 fiscal year to the 2001-02 fiscal year.2 This likely understates
the actually growth in the estate tax in later years as the 2001-02 fiscal year occurred during a
recession.
Table 4. Estate Tax Projected Revenue Changes from Phase-Out
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Estate Tax -200
-397
-467
-727
-778

2007-08
-848

Table 5 totals the revenue changes that occurred during Governor Bush’s tenure. Thus far all figures
have been presented in nominal dollars. Table 5 adjusted these estimates for inflation. In total, the
tax reductions discussed above reduced Floridian taxpayers tax burdens by $19.3 billion (2007
dollars) from 1999 to 2007.
Table 5. Total Value of Revenue Changes Made From 1999 to 2007 (Millions)
1999- 2000- 2001- 2002- 200320042005200600
00
02
03
04
05
06
07
Nominal
Dollars
-802
-1,134 -1,238 -1,858 -2,081 -2,225 -2,354 -2,834
Real 2007
Dollars
-998
-1,366 -1,450 -2,142 -2,344 -2,442 -2,500 -2,915

200708

Total

-3,139 -17,665
-3,139 -19,297

Notes: Inflation adjustment uses CPI-U. Available here.

Data Limitations and Caveats
The above analysis does not extend beyond the 2007-08 fiscal year. This likely understates the true
value of the tax reductions since it omits the tax savings from later years that were a consequence of
reforms occurring during Governor Bush’s administration.
No attempt has been made to disaggregate tax changes from more revenue changes unrelated to
taxes. These include revenue increases from the state lottery, tuition increases in state universities,
and changes in state employee health premiums.

2

Revenue estimates are derived from the June Monthly Economic reports, available here.