Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library WHITE HOUSE CONFERENCE ON THE INDUSTRIAL WORLD AHEAD: A LOOK AT BUSINESS IN 1990 Theme: THE HUMAN SIDE OF ENTERPRISE Session: CHANGING NATURE OF THE WORK ENVIRONMENT 2:00 Tuesday, February 8, 1972 Sheraton-Park Hotel, Washington, D.C. Moderator - George C. Guenther Assistant Secretary, U.S. Department of Labor One of the more diffioult problems we in the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) have experienced in implementing the Williams?Steiger Occupational Safety and Health Act has been to clearly define the jurisdictional boundaries which exist between othef Federal agencies with certain statutory job safety and health responsibilities and our responsibilities in the Department of Labor. OSHA continues to engage in extensive discussions on this subject with the Deparumeht of Interior, the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Transportation, the AEC and other agencies. I was reminded of this difficult jurisdictional exercise when I first attempped to place the subject of our session today "the changing nature of the work environment? into perspective alongside the four other topics falling under the broad category "the human side of enterprise?. Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library As you know from your programs, the other four topics are "new dimensions in labor?management relations?, "the job and emerging life styles?, "the human resource in the world of work? and "compensation, job satisfaction and productivity?. Drawing distinct boundary lines between these five subjects is about as simple as congressional reapportionment - a happy little exercise to which your State legislatures are now addressing themselves. After extensive discussion with my colleague theme setters we have, I believe, developed a modus operandi for approaching our t0pic without violating the turf of the other sessions. If violate we do, the resulting rumble will at least show that this conference is in tune with the times, and perhaps provide even a few scars to insure its place in our memories. I have been asked to kick off this session with very brief remarks which permits me to tell my story about the who was asked to give a brief speech on sex, which he did by striding to the podium, stating "it gives me great pleasure? and sitting down. Within the context of ?the changing nature of the work environment?, I proppse to briefly address myself to two major topics: 1. What will be the changes in American jobs between now and 1990 and what will be the resultant effect on the workplaces_in which these jobs are performed? 2. As a substantial new element in the American workplace, what will be the impact of the Williams?Steiger Occupational Safety and Health Act. My two colleagues, Elmer Winter, President of Manpower, Inc., and Professor Irving Fosberg of Loyola University of the South, will then discuss their special views on the significance of the changing work environment for the American employer and employee. At the Opening session yesterday morning, I listened with great interest to Secretary Hodgson's remarks - an exercise in attentive listening which I am certain you all can understand. My personal and professional bias notwithstanding, I believe Secretary Hodgson made a series of meaningful remarks particularly appropriate to my comments on the statistical alignment of the workforce in 1990. He said "in Spite of the refinements and the undoubted successes of statistical forecasting, we must not, in this Conference, neglect the powerful impact of ideas." He also said "unless an economic system is responsive to ever changing human needs, tensions of great magnitude disturb society." Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library 4 In this spirit then I offer the charts you see before you and my brief comments. Looking ahead to the informal and obviously broad discussions of this session, I suggest that each of you consider the major industry sectors and occupational groups of primary concern to you and to your company rather than attempt to digest the entire array of projections. In attempting to extrapolate workplace changes between now and 1990, we have consulted numerous statistical agencies responsible for this sort of projection. As you can imagine, we received an interesting variety of responses none, of course, attributable. We are bringing to you this afternoon, therefore, a consensus estimate which, in our judgment, presents as fair a picture as anyone can come up with, of the changes which will probably take place. The charts you see before you are based on a number of assumptions: 1. That we will, in fact, achieve the President's goal of a "generation of peace? 2. That the peace we achieve will be domestic as well as foreign 3. That the general economic picture will continue upward in the low trillions, and Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library 5 4. That technological break-throughs will continue at an ever increasing pace Based on these assumptions, total U.S. population in 1990 should be 270 million compared with 1970's 205 million. As you can see from the chart, which is divided into 5?year periods, our pOpulation growth by 1990 should add 65 million new Americans, equivalent to the present p0pulation of 8 States today. Employment should rise to 107 million, up 36% from 1970's 78.6 million. Here again, our chart shows this increase of 28 million to be comparable to the combined populations of New York City and 10 States. For projection purposes, the employment statistics assume a 4% rate of unemployment. Our next chart compares 1970 employment with that of 1990 by major industry sectors. All jobs are up 36%, from 83 million to almost 113 million. Overall non?agricultural wage and salary jobs rise almost 42%. We have displayed the various industry groups to show the fastest growing on the left, the slowest on the right. 1. Leading all sectors is State and local government, up 70.9% 2. Personal, professional and business services will be up almost 68% 10o Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library 6 Construction will be up almost 53% Wholesale and retail trade will be up 38% Finance, insurance and real estate will be up almost 33% Manufacturing will be up only 24%. It should be noted that manufacturing will still remain the largest employer Transportation, communication and public utility will be up only 22% Federal Government employment will be up 18% Mining will be down almost 36% We will deal with agriculture on the next chart, which also shows a substantial decline in employment All of these projections jibe with the comments of Mr. Kahn and Dr. Harmon at the opening session of the Conference yesterday Our fourth chart views the 1990 picture from a different perspective, that of major occupational groups. Here again we have displayed the fastest growing groups to the left, the slowest to the right. 1. Leading the growth parade are professional and technical workers, up 73% Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidermal lerary 2. Next are service workers, up almost 59% 3. Clerical workers are up almost 52% 4. Sales workersr are up 38% 5. Craftsmen and foremen are up almost 33% 6. Managers, officials, proprietors are up 25% 7. Operatives, assembly line workers, truck drivers, etc., are up only 15% 8. Non?farm laborers are down 6% 9. And farm workers are down 55% With regard to farm employment, I am remeinded of Herman Kahn's statement yesterday regarding the general national lack of appreciation for the production of America's farmers today. To paraphrase Winston Churchill,?never have so many been so de- pendent on so few? will be even more spectacularly true in 1990 when only 144 million farm workers will endeavor to feed 270 million Americans. These, then, are ball park figures for 1990. It should be reemphasized that they can in no way' compare with such safe predictions as "the Senators will always play baseball in Washington? or for that matter "the Colts will always ball in Baltimore?. The predictions are for the purpose of stimulating discussion and not for the specific purpose of quotation or application. Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Presidentlal L1brary Now I will switch from my statistician's eyeshade to my hard hat and discuss for just a moment or two the present status 'of occupational safety and health in the American workplace and its potential future impact. When he signed the Act on December 29, 1970, President Nixon called it ?the most sweeping new social legislation in 20 years." OSHA's implementation experience to date corroborates the President's appraisal. The Act is designed to provide safer and healthier working conditions in some four and oneehalf million workplaces and for some 60 million employees, Since the Williams?Steiger Act became effective April 28, 1971, only nine months ago, a great new wave of interest and concern has swept across the country. The Act requires the Secretary of Labor to set basic safety and health standards which apply in all workplaces, to establish a mechanism to enforde these standards, and to provide every opportunity for the States to ultimately assume full responsibility for setting and enforcing their own standards. In our short life span, we have already adopted a broad set of initial standards applying to construction, maritime and industry in general. These standards are not set in concrete but are constantly under review to accomplish maximum protection on the I Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Premdentlal lerary job with minimum impact on productivity and operating costs. OSHA is a firm believer that, unlike some other environmental controls, "safety pays? and we have the record of thousands of safety conscious employers, such as long-time members of the National Safety Council, to prove it. We continue to preach the doctrine of "voluntary compliance? since we will never have the resources to ?enforce? safety in all workplaces at all times, nor do we believe this to be the most effective way to accomplish the purposes of the Act. In nine months we havecreated an organization widla staff of 850 in 10 regional offices, 49 area offices and 2 maritime district offices. Our compliance officers, the men responsible for inspections, operate out of the 49 area offices. They have received extensive basic training and everyone of them will be retrained at our new Chicago Institute near O'Hare Field by the end of June. We have established the Target Industry Program aimed at the five industries with the highest disabling injury rate. We haVe .also a Target Health Hazards Program to concentrate our efforts on five toxic substances, asbestos, lead, silica, cotton dust and carbon monoxide. . . - duced at the Richard Nixon PreSIdenhal L1bra1y epro 10 - During the first six months of fiscal year 1972 (from June through December 1971) we have conducted 13,317 inspections in 12,176 establishments employing 2,225,501 employees. These insepctions have produced 9,179 citations alleging 34,960 violations of our standards. Exercising a right provided by the Act, to date Eggfemployers have contested citations to the Occupational Safety and Health Review Commission. Many controversial enforcement provisions are contained in the Act, including the right of employees to complain, the right of an employee representative to participate in the walkaround inspection, and others. It has been and will continue to be our policy to be prompt,\ fair and expert in our enforcement activities. Underlying all else, policy is to concentrate on safety and health issues and to avoid involvement in labor-management disputes. To date we believe we have been reasonably effective in carrying out this policy. Today and for the foreseeable future, our objective is to insure that the States have ample opportunity to exercise their right to assume jurisdiction for this program, To date State reaction has been excellent. Of the 56 jurisdiction (50 States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, etc.) eligible to participate, 51 have interim operating agreements (enabling them I Reproduced at the Richard Nixon Pres1denual leraly 11 - to continue their program while developing an Operating plan), 49 have received about $6,000,000 in planning grants and 53 have indicated their intention to submit a plan. The President has on many occasions expressed his commitment to what he calls "New Federalism?, the provision of Government services as close as possible to the people served. The State provisions of the Williams?Steiger Act clearly enable the placement of this program at the State level, closest to affected employers and employees. We believe this is the proper location for safety and health and ask your support as your governors and legislatures consider the matter this year. The fundamental test for the States is that the program.must must be "at least as effective? as the Federal program. The interest of top management and top labor in OSHA continues to be excellent. Voluntary compliance efforts are taking place and we believe even in the short space of nine months great advances have been made in the American workplace. What will be the overall impact of OSHA on the workplaces of 1990? My ball is cloudy. That there will be great changes in new workplaces and substantial modification in existing establishments is certain. Top management will, by then, have become long accustomed to considering safety and health issues as an integral part of decision making. The collective bargaining process will also be affected by many new safety and health provisions. I - 3' ,l Reproduced the T?ilk?l'l 1 HI 3' -12- If OSHAAcontinues on the path we have established, I believe in 1990 we will be able to look back on the toll of work? place injury and illness as a thing of the past in.much the same way we now can look back on polio and tuberculosis. I have now severely violated the time guidelines set down by my speaker on sex. It is time for other perspectives and I will relinguish the podium to my colleague Elmer Winter, President of Manpower, Inc., to discuss with you his views from the standpoint of a top manager in the "people" service business regarding the nature of the hmpieymee?texperience in the industrial world ahead.