COVID-19 Modeling and Analytics Update Analysis based on COVID-19 analytics as of November 16, 2021 1 Role of Modeling • Modeling cannot predict what will happen. • It tells us what ‘could’ happen over the next six months, based on actions taken. • It supports decision makers by comparing the potential impact of public health measures and behaviour changes. • Goal: to make the best policy decisions based on public health information, keeping economic activity stable, children in school and control of health system capacity. 2 COVID-19 Analytics Highlights: • Daily hospital and ICU admissions have decreased 29% and 41%, respectively from two weeks ago. • The non-ICU and ICU census has decreased 30% and 22% respectively from two weeks ago. • Among western provinces, Saskatchewan remains first for hospitalizations and ICU census per 100,000. • ~67% of COVID admissions to ICU were within 24 hours of admission to hospital. 3 Daily COVID-19 Hospital Admissions 4 COVID-19 Hospital Daily Census (Non-ICU) 5 COVID-19 Hospital Census (non-ICU & ICU) per 100,000 – Nov 1, 2020 – Nov 5, 2021 6 Daily COVID-19 ICU Admissions 7 COVID-19 Admissions to ICU within 24 hour of admission to hospital 8 COVID-19 Daily ICU Census 9 COVID-19 ICU Census per 100,000 (Nov 1, 2020 – Nov 15, 2021) 10 COVID-19 Hospitalization rate per 100,000 (seven day average) by vaccine status (June 1 – Nov 2, 2021) 11 COVID-19 Modeling: November 3, 2021 12 COVID-19 Modeling: November 3, 2021 13 1st Dose 2nd Dose COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake November 16, 2021 14 The actions taken by the people of Saskatchewan collectively will determine the outcomes. Simple measures reduce the risk of infection: – Mask in all public spaces and wear the best mask possible – Reduce close contacts – Outdoors is better than indoors – Wash your hands often – Stay home with even the mildest symptoms and get tested – Get fully vaccinated as soon as you are eligible COVID-19 information available at saskatchewan.ca/COVID19 15