THE A OF THE INTERNET PRELIMINARY INTERNET ON BEGINS EXPLORATION ELECTRICITY WITH OF THE COAL IMPACT CONSUMPTION A G~REEN POLICY FOR PAPER THE GREENING EARTH SOCIETY n,~yw.g,eeni"gealthsOciety,org 4301 WiiiO" Arlington, Blvd., suite 805 VA, 22203 Prodtrrrd by Mark P hlillr hlnik~P~Mills~l,ormril.ir~n~ Scirncitic Advisor IO the C.rrczGng Earrh Socirry Prcridcnr, ,!4illr-VcCxrhy B Arrociarrr. Inc. K311 Kerry Road Chevy <:harc, !dD 20815 hf;,v. I 'W'l / (,,L.. ,,, ,,,,, ,,M,L lli", .,,,l," Llrr ' i ,,,,, ,.,,,,,I i cl,l. IW., !/:,I,, ,,, THE INTERNET BLClNS WITH LOAL 3 Executive Summary Every measure of rhe lnrerner numbers of users, numbcr rhe billions shows euplorive grnwrh in and rriciry is largely rarurated, a holdover from the old indus- of\Vcb siws, bandwidth, Howewr, uial age and out of place in dx new info age. Today, utili& and consulnnrs and the orbi in rhe elearic of regulnrors, crpcrrs rhemax" of of dollars in e-commcr~e. there is one measurr that has been absenr from considernrion rhus far--rhe quantity of electricity needed IO keep rhe indusrty preoccupy selves wirh brand, idrnriry, issues. ~Mranwhile, old-fashioned merger and "srrandcd is building Ner hoc. Two decades ago, dais merric, like all orhers for rhe Inrrrner, didn'r marrer. The number device of computers was rhe Inrcrncr a tsunami elecrron demand the likes of which All of this electric utilities growth and microprocosror-based counwd millio". Preliminary calcularions in the thousands. on rhe lnrerner have nor XL'" in half a cenrary. comes from the nvnlanchc Now rhcrc are ar leasr 100 of equipmenr essential co cre- ate. access and operare rhe Inrcmer. rewal char the electricity on rhe Inrerncr by irself has Many are invesring microproccsso~ begun. rcliabilicy on rhe assumprion char use of has just demand, less is apperire of rhc rquipmenr grown from essenrially and rhe lnrcrner in particular for electric portend nothing rcn years ago co 8% of roday. In alI likeliIO twoin rhe If so, then rhe implications and utility archirecrure Every PC-rypr mral U.S. &&city hood, the Inrerner consumprioo is rerponsible nothing for one-half than a revoiuion. of microprocessor rhirds of all the growrh lasr de&r. in U.S. elecrriciry demand like a light bulb energired lights, many inregrared by 50 IO 100 warn; bur unlike In ciccuics, arc on all chr time. demand This analysis finds rhar for cwry dara moving on rhc Inremet, 2,000 Kbytes of addirion, on rhe Inrerner. begets more drmand. help explain why rhe energy from a pound of The microprocessor gear srridc and the Inremer and billions hax of dollars invested nor flarrened in rradirional load Electricity consumption of computers IS 10 ehric growl,. arim--rbe effcirncy Efticiency overall elecrric moron gains in lighring. and rcfrigcrq-have anchor producrs of rbe firrr electric 5 0 been more d,:,,, offsei by rhe elccrric ucr of rhir nex info-&&c Losr in dx rbemric 1970 1988 1998 ildurrrics ngr. needs of rhc prod- of dx power of bin co rmnrform wcl,n<,luQ is it simp I c 1-w CVCI)I infl~~tn:,riwl Ins nvo connccrions-one Unlike rhc dominant coal is needed IO create rhe necessary kilowarr-hours. When orher uses of compurers which are linked directly are included (many of dcvicr co move bits. anorhrr srand-alone compurers for po\vcr, and indirecrly IO rhs l,l~erner wnxmcd by of a dccnde ago, ncrwoiked fur o&r dniccs. ofnrhcr compurers gencrare demand is connccred boxrs in rhr seem rcunomy), rbe share of all U.S. rlccrriciry microprocessors of de-regulation 1,:~sgenerxed Every PC on rhc Inrorncr elecrriciry-consuming of puwrr cornpurer-hazed The rurmoil elrcrric rwmuc uditirr jumps to 13%. and comprririon for and co n myri:,d ncnvnrk. The worlds stations and dcskqz a scramble fbr suucurc era for rlccrririry. fx aparr. bur arc connecrcd by rbe powrr cord on [be ~rowrh. in rhe emerging compcririve b:ick uf every box, and rhc power of gcomcrric Tbc implicariwx of PC lie. Ad,/", c.,,,,,,,,,,,/ ,~ ,,,,,, j.. /, /?.I, ,.~. \/,ltI ,, Underlying explicir much of zhis xciviry is [be implicir and of&n clcc,, arc CIP;II in rlx arid~mcric cnf rllc growth mmprion char tlx busin~,s of pro\.iding .:/~I, .,, 4 I ,/ 5 I N T L % li E 1 E i : , h i * I I // c c h / Thm md~er nrc hcndy 150 million 50 mih, compurcrs KS in hunsrbnldr. and 36 mil- dcnred dcm;tnd ior rcli;ihliry. inonwrk xandard "up" 24hnurr Krcping :L $gawnrr-hxcd in burinorrr per dq, 7 dxys 2 week scti zi ncxv ;\s a C~RSC~UC~CC, I& \vill he forced Indeed. wlirbil- lion more being sold cvcry yrar. raps and rhc pcriphcrxls orhcr micruprocersor-hasrd push, xmplib, Iransmit. Nor unly do IIK dcskhrtr so do all [he char for high power r&hilir\- need elccrriciry, ;wchicccurc to ;&pr uf ~hc electric supply industry Inrcrnc~. boxes in the nctwnrk KI rhc demands nirhc rcceivc, route nnd manage rhe of rhesr boxes mu. Nor only is iry will rakr on ian cnrirely new mr.ining Furthermore. for elccrric engiissues pcrtainiwo far rhe hirs. There are millions dcctriciry ncrrs in thy decade r<, come. ncedsd w opernre rhrx bows, bur rhcy nrr hbindurries indw in ing co clcccric price and supply, Iugely dccndcr qa. companies cc"nom) While sranding cnvironmcn,alisrs now assume a central which comprisr irrelevant ricated by one of the mosr electric-intensive chc country. l-he $50 hilliunlyesr impurraxc semiconductor chc ncnuorked pan of rhe cry is now rhr narion's largesr manufitcurinp passing rhc sum parts sccmr in 1795. Ar rhe wnrldwidc vision of one billion glohol kiluwarr-hour secror, sur- nnd utiliries have been Icvcl, rhis nnalysis shows rhnr InrelP PCs on the Inrernct represcn~s a on desks 10 screw in Ii&r bulbs that save 10 of rhc drsks rhar gohhlc warn hcrr and 50 warrr iherc, the ownrrs hnvr been plugging in PCS and pcriphrrals demand cqual rn rhc cnrire aurpur The magnitude of thr appetite has of the U.S. clec~ric grid. of rhe Interner powerful 1.000 warrs and morr - and crrn~r an echo on rhe Inrcrner requiring still more power. The debate over [he market to dchsrc, for and informxion agr: for elecrriciry implications for rhonr in industry and policy what SOLIICC~ power \YS should encourage of use, which dominarcs rhc rlecrric rrsrrucruring makers. It now seems reasonable forrser.xblc furure. cerrainly rvirhin 10 Forccasr char in the nuo decades. 30 IO to , will he burird by rhr marker's info-age driven demand reliable 50% of rhe nation's elerrric meet the direcr and indirecr supply will hc required needs of rhe Internet. km af power. cheap power and increasingly pawer. Orcr the next decade, issur~ like so-c&d urgency in rhe f&r power r&red "green" On rap of rhe sheer need for power, rhe very narure of the Inrerncr and infoormadon ase CrcareS 3" unprece- power. will lox need for "smxr" economy. of rhe overwhelming to mrec rhr lnrernrr I THE INTERNET BEGlNS WlT" COdl . Introduction: Electric of rhe light Trends "Lkcaare mrmmio~l mosr IerdJfir major apphm nre nchimed, only minor incmwr in "L-CI(I. " of Concrrned A, rhe turn ofrhe lar century, the developmcnr bulb and elecrric motor ignired a" explosion demand. Myriad uses rvolved in elecrric fnr I/XX rwo corr electric rlrciricity c*nr,rnpi;orr /d/ ~ Energy Srrareg, Scienrirrs, 1780. Union devircs and togerher rhcy shaped much of rhe 20th cenrurfs economy. The marker's apperirr for lighring motors (inducrrial and all rhc drive sys- orher devices rhar used rlrcrric wms, pumps, rcfrigerarors, driving air condirioncrs, etc.) wu rhr rbe "W SW ektriciq demandrat&ring downward mu rhp mdirm and long ierm. Kanm horiwn. " Amory Lovins. i"rcrviewed in force crcaring a" enrirely "cw infrasrrucrure, as we know ic roday. IV,X reached in new applicarions 7%~ elecrric industry As saturarion hg-runrupp!) m).vcfir decrricifyaifrRt the ii nr for the clectri~ devices "f rhe tint electric age. growrh in clectriciry use began m slow and rrack general growth i" rbe economy and rhe "umber Inevirably, improve of buildings, technology people and r&cd producrs. Auiinm Wkk July 23, 1984. Yet, as iliutrared rriciry in Figure 1, rhe demand for elccrhe of progress bcga" to subsranrially elecrric devices-a trend of tbc 1970s. The rhc &cie"cy of tradirional ovrr the pasr 20 years conrinued economy, IO grow with spurred on by the energy price sho& drivr for electric eifcic"~ invesred in national "Demand bouminp ar a pace grearcr than the number buildings. was accelerated by billions houses, people and commercial Some of this and srare programs co implemenr For mosr of rhe Iax two co"servatio" pro- lemand came from fuel switching leviccs and msnufacruring ric devices a.nd procersrs :Irctric infrared - comburrion-bared Side Managemenr." processes giving way ro elecsuch as elecrric steel making, or laser welding, ccc. decades enormous uriliry and gwernmrnr grams have bee" dwored iv consumprion. EGronmcnral a cngagd ticiparing to reducing rhe growrh in &uricrbe U.S. painr drying, rhe c""ci"wd By its own accaunring, Noncrhclers, xzrli"g increase i" demand wns of exrcnsive efforrs r" sriflc kWb Prorrcrion Agency has rhousands of burinerr- agninrr a backdrop Tural demand in rhe "Green Lighrs" programs where every parcompany hns sffecrrd exrensive ramfirs EPA c I .ams "billions rwed" in lighti" lighr- and growrh. ion, rose by 750 billion ,978 to dare, a growrh of 650/o. The rcsourcc r" frustrate those who ing ro reduce dmmand. mplic;rrionr of rhir rrcnd crmri"uc ing COS~F.Similnr s~~cccsshas been claimed in &uric moror programs. A l,ew rcfrigcraror uses 60% less elecrriciuses 33% less. :erk r" rcducc nnrional ~ucl "se in parricular. ;rowh in rlrctric energy UK i" gc"er31. 2nd fossil Coal has supplied 60% of all ty today rha" 20 years ago, air condirioning and frccrrrs 70% I~ss.~ There is "o douhr rhar grcar stride supply, and srill supplies 570/o of all by rhr apparenr failure ro reduce of Energy (Doe), ;tdvocarcs lbave probc rr-dwtblcd. cffurrs hair bw" tlecrriciry. i" clecrric cffciency krric Frusrrated demand, the U.S. Dcparrmcnt and co"srrvn~io~~ were achieved "vrr rhr pasr rwo dccadcs, and especially over rhs pasr dccadc. Successful market penerrario" of eft;cic"cy ttwironmenralisrs wsed LI~I efforrs ru improve Ir may ht. hwwer, efficiency mcasurc~ should have, by all ICCDUIIII, suhwnrinlly rrcmmcd if 1""~ sroppcd elecrrici~ demand growth. Indeed. dnr cfticicncy 'pruhlc~n' dfcccrive. hi Inxcad, rbe purnrivc frwn ">:a,~ he LIX" "cw :ircit, rbc nccdr "f some rnrhuiastic srwth forecarrcrs wcx wrr,G" ~1~x1 clccrric ~rwv~h ii roming rconomy ;i" cnrircly Ib.id finally cndrd. inf"r",.iri"" an d irs tools. 1.1~ rnersy T H E NT i R N L T e E G I N 5 ,'i I T H c 0 d i rhc infoormarion elecrriciry. economy arc almost cnrircly mer with tlrnr IO 170 lmillion >y OYCC2 Quads. :ombusrible f&s bar& of oil), WliilC ClrCIliC US? iosc SCCIUTrhc usr of As Figure 1 illuscnxx. it is clear 6om rhe added co the 111rhc co,nrnerciid declined rrrnds rhar rhc a&i& economy wcr and rechnologies by over I Quad. and rlecrriciThese rranrfnrmarion~ in energy of equip- the pax two decades arc almost crclusivcly and fLurrhermore havr crcared a the say- y USCgrew by 8 Qunds. M are direcr indicarors nrnt clecrriciry-consuming, demand for clecrriciry of rhe rransformarions rhat has more than o&r programs. used in rhe nvo major srcrors ofrhe rrends alto occurred U.S. ~onomy. sector.) in ings achieved in cffcirncy :Similar in rhe residential Forccasrers no longer expecr significanr Figure 1 Eronomic & Energy TW"dS ,478 1998 4ecrric use for lights. rcfrigerarors, growrh etc. for rhr 1nex1nv\"o appliances Rur forccaswrs demand m keep The 1978 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 100 .iccades even a the number ofconvrnrional grows wirh rhr economy and popularion. net elecuic Economy zincluding rhir one) erprcr :iring anyway, jusr as ir has for rhe pasr two decndcs. nsis for currenr :hat the amount :ontinurr forecars ofclectriciry appears co he roorrd in rhe her needed per dollar ofGDP linked. If one forccasrs a risforecarr rising elrctric co be srubbornly ng GDP, one mun alw apparently Combustible 1978 fuel i 998 use. Narional xonomy elecrriciy use rose 3.5% in 1998. by informarior In an rech- where news is dominated source:DOElEla Excludes tramportation data: tranrportation is 99% oil-dominated; le55 than 0.146 of electricity il used in tranrrJortation. Thlk in',"dins transportation enerw use confurer and marks the ecunomic relatiamhip between energy, electricity and the "owtranrportatian parts of the eco,,omy (industrial, ~ommrciai and reridentic+ SeCt"*s~ which. in any case, compri5e 90% or the GDP. nology companies terms like a p&y of rhe enormou wirh double digit growth figure. tiawcver, rates, 3.5% is on rap rhis growrh bare consumption of over rhree trillion take the mral out- kWh per year. Far exnmplr, it would put of all power planrr in Taiwan in U.S. demand. Conrinuing m fuel last year's growrh rate would such a a 3.5% growth Over the pasr two decades. U.S. indunrrial incrrased outpur 150%, and rhe commercial increased by 250%. Against ourpur has nearly double growrh roral use in nvo decadrs. Whether secmr economic rhis growth, effcien- rare conrinurs, and what rhe related resource might be, depends electric implicarions mtirely demand for rhe elecrric indusrry cy measures rmkd combusrion &KS in an absolure decline in rhc use of gas and oil). Vnrrly grearcr &cuic cffSency over in barb by an wh~x technologies in recenr yexs. have been driving fuels (principally As WC sbnll show. informntion rhc Internet in pxr- were devorcd KJ improving achmlogics in gencml, and rcccnrly that rime period, but ratal elccrriciry SCC~II. Industrial use of combusrible use still rox ricular, are driving also rhc narioni nm only Wall Srrcer and rhe GDP, bur kWh gmwrh. fuels declined BTUr, half a Quad (a Quad is 1,000 rrillion and is equiv- 0 rOl"l,Vnl ,q11 Cllcn,In c".lh,ir'.rta I T H E ,NTERNET BEGlNS WlTH COFI 2 hralrh.' Electricity, The Information . Economy & The Internet Average has bren adopred as growrh and makrenaissance rha arise demand. from a srealrh revolurion in electric Thr Dow Joncs Industrial rhc de facro reflection An imporranr of rhe economy's The reasons are anchored in rhe same trends for driving rhc issue for analyrrs and policy rhnr analysts b&eve are largely responsible ers (and investors) is the extent COwhich for driving growrh, basic rechnology and rhe DJI Dow and the economy. Thr rrendr driving the en& illusrrared in Figure 3 conrain economy, rhe root of factors are responsible weragc. (See Figure 2.) For those in rhe energy supply reasonable planrhe driving force of rhe "new" class of products The production business, ir is nor possible IO underrake ning and forecasting form of econoinic wirhour grawrh. and srrvices broadly has grown carcgofrom undemanding .ized as "informarinn under $200 billion $1 trillion/year rechnologics" per year of revrnues in 1978 ro near fax. encompasser industry sec- roday, and is climbing technology Figure 2 The DOW Jones industrial *"wage The informarion :he &communic~rions rors! (Excluded industry and the cornpurer from rhere dara are revenues from orher businesses asrociared equipment. with games are micro-processor-basrd 6000 and 'smart revmum convenrional Also excluded associated witb e-commerce.) As Table I shows, while U.S. &corn revenues have grown $244 billion pan of over rhe parr two decades, rhr cornpurer-r&ted rhe information 0 1978 source: DOWJones 1988 1998 much: a giowrh decades. of $452 billion economy has grown by almonr twice 2s over ihe pasr IWO equipment rwcnue~.~ s&s The ICVCIIUCSfrom cornpurer in all rclccom alone exceed rhe growth Analysrs in pracrically every venue are writing economy about Figure3: U.S.information Technology Ind"it*y Revenues 1000 x $billion '.,, ,. ., ~~ 1 the 'inew" 01 "informarion" growrh. demand. Any growing with as rhc engine of economy will drag alung rlecrric more lights, more crc. If rhr only and electric more oftice buildings, honm. homes, b&r cannccrion growrh more appliances. rhe "new" economy berwcen is rhis so-called second urdcr effecr. rhcn rhereh supply side. Even as a nor much of a story on rhe rlrctric growing economy boons elecuic UC, rising efficiencies leaving rhr rlrcjource: jr,.,., Information Technology .,,"" _.,, COurlCil II,ly ,,,,a,,u,, ,iL ,,,,"," _l, induitry l_l.,. will subsranrially offser any ner gm\vrh. holding Cc sector of the fururc commodiry, Hawcvcr, a place as a viral primxy role. The implicarions VLMI Srrccr. rhc rlecrriciry would Iii? bur in a passive and secondary carrful eraminarion of This kind ofgrowdl rcv~lution Cerr;>inly, is dirccrly go beyond rclcwnr one IU of rhe fund~mcnmir scccor is not in irs Twiof a The digiral business. Imakes ic clrnr rhar rhc 'uld' &uric as n minimun1. lighr years, but insread has cnrcrcd [he beginning exprcr ~hx indurrrial and ct>mmcrci:d arriviricr : ;oi,,,j,,l ;,si I,,,,q 'r,,l, ?o,,*: THE ,NTEUNET REGlNi *,l,H i"iL ending would $1 million br: responsible in revenues in an $8 rrillion for 1 sign&car economy i( is rcflocriw of number mfk. of, rhc rood amount oF Web traftic in Remus share of roral U.S. ratio implies, econorup- of uscrs~ or in ~enns of rhe gigabyrcs of digiral are dift?culr to measure electricicy consumprion. This broad l-m-8 Borh of rhcse indicarors all other rhings being equal, rhar rhc informarion my mighr consume ply. ar least 12.5% of all elecrriciry and indeed are srtbjecr m enormous Mrasuring indusrry ing. uncerrainriss. Web rmffic in terms of users is an infant and fraughr with confusion and miswdcrrrandand businesxs in Bur that ratio would only apply if rhe informarion on elecrricity as cbc economy The economy ar large. informarion were as dependent User darn are viral for zdvertiserr As we shall see, rhir is far from rhe ax. economy js rn~r~ drpendcnr order co attach financial value to Web usage. The ~OII 100 million people now as "active". on elecrridry re~rnr data suggesr rhar nearly KCCSS the lnrerner. (NielseniNerRarings) than the economy ar large. with 60 million However, classified in order IO evaluate rhc Table 1 Informatioo Technology Industry Revenues ~X8biili""~ elecuic implirations, ic is nor rhe use of Ncc rhar is a ailrhar is needed KOxccss icxl variable, Telecom T"d Equipment Services Computers Total Equipment SeWiCeS 92 31 61 73 56 17 336 93 243 525 301 224 244 62 182 452 245 207 bur rhe rquipmcnr 2nd operate rhr nenvork. source: information Technology Indrrtry Council The Internet driving is widely believed to be the underliing growth in rhe overall growth force behind economy. rhe explosive Cerrainly 1970 1980 1990 2000 information the astounding source:HObbW ,nternetTimeline ww.visoc.cml IEEE at & spectrum The kind of growth experienced over rhr parr decade srarr-up compa- in the cornpurer industry, and the very recenr asrronomibwe been responsible in digital u&c, producr manufacruring, cal rise in the use of the Inrernet. for the lion's share of rhe recent surge in "technology" stocks and so-called dot-cam the Interner im+&mshave companies. The growth of nies and corporate is so recent and rapid rhat many of the ness writers yer ro be understood or fully evaluarrd. poinrr Two decades ago, rhe number counred thousand. While in rhe hundreds; of Web sites was rhc airwaves. a decade ago ic was srill a few in the fabricarion Today there are millions. is picking (See Figure 4.1 : revenuer, all de@ rhe ability of busi- ro find new adjccrives. All of rhis growth on wires, fibers xnd of dramaric increases of 10 more rhan increased rraffic II is a direcr indication and use of rhausands and millions devices, many of which did not even exist 20 years ago. From a supply side perspecrivc, rhr hidden srory is rhc is impacted equipment by rhc furiIO aperare global activity up rapidly, the majority extent to which electric demand of rhe Web sires, traffic States.' and equipment are in rhe Unired is esrimared to ous pace of building and installing all the products rhar comprise the Interner. for rhe cleccric impacr on rbe The U.S. share of the Internet range from 50% ro 75%. The Furure will see the U.S. share of total Web rraff~c and archirecrurc growrh shrink, bur rhe The implicarions in rhe absolure size of rhc U.S. mnrket shows no indusrry signs of slowing. relecom industry. The data shown in Figure 4 does 110~count. although its vorw B COl,l~i,lll ., ,, ,,,, 1P99, ..,,,, C,lrll,lli, ,,,,,., /a1181 of rhe Inremet are likely IO reflect rhe Inrcrner's The Inremet has already dragged inro industry. Nor rhe archirrcrure sl<~r17 ,,,~ of rbe &corn A - 0;-m 5- 2 58325 T2 ?-sm wi 52 F. Ep (L 5--. ., .. znp.6 A I rezng Lwg? gem; BRT- qw: SEE BBQ. agg- (Arg Omg DBR I T " i I N T E R N i T B r (i I :, i ,ii I T H c 0 A L o The I."_i,.,I. E L,,~"/,,,,,, ,h, THE ,NTERNET BEGlNS WI," CO&L 2. PCs are used in many venues orher rhnn businesses mch 3s homes and schools. 3. There arr many orher ryppes of compurcrs rhar PX not classified as PCs. including "minis" and mainframes, nor co mention in use lnsrrad rhey arc pre-occupird wirh rhe challenges presentpressures :d by rhe chnoric growrh ,f rhc lnrrrner Whether Inrcrnet Se&c, indusriy. rhey provide and fierce comperirive so-called an enor- microprocessors. PCs, rourers, ax rhe mil- or data networks, challenge rraftic. manufacwrers of mccring mous and growing array of PC-rype devices. focused on rhe enormous lion-fold growrh in lnrcrnrt 4. Perhaps most importand!: co rhc Inrernet, PC-type devices. the network A cornpurer once a PC is connected drives demand for orher on a ncnvork is the From an elecrric suphas rcsulrcd in an being plugged in rhx ply perspecrive, unprecedcnred all of rhis acriviry number of "hoxcs" visible manifesrarion ncvork. increasing of many orher devices in [he arc a primary number driving force wed power. boxes rhar ncvrr before cxisred - indeed most didni cure a unique exist five or ten years ago - and char cons& new form of elccuic demand. chat employ rhar data And nenvarks rhc demand, devices. and types of PCs and PC-type The range of devices and appliances needs of rhe lnternec irrelf, rarher hut inrcgrarrd circuirs has increased so rapidly Thus the elecrriciry than PCs in general, is nor only more inreresring more importanr to understand. The Inrcrnct cracking rysrems put in place in rhe early 1980s have nor adapted IO the marker. roral inventory (largely For example, data tracking rhe not only plays a central role in driving character regarding of rhe lnrerner powrr PC use, but the unique implicarions of compurers includes so-called micros presenrs addirional PCs), minis, and mainframes. Rur the dara scrics PCs), rhe use; keeping a newark "up" is much do nor include Web TVs (which enrire range of informarion are essenrially more challenging "up". than keeping a group of discrerc dcviccs &uric devices and appliances, appliances (many of which are For convenrional arc also small PCs), or home game syatcms (which incrrasingly a new class of computer xccss).' dctcrmining straightforward. unlike aggregare electric demand is relnrively The situation analog. of rhc fin elecrric age, companies rhe and with rhe lnrerner is quite wirh rhe newesr offering number installed. Inrerner There few cxamplcs already of units manufactured from rhe dam rracking and are irs historic in rhc millions Also excluded During the growrh like GE and Wesringhouse elecrriciry-using wcrc nor only building rhar consumers ~ourcrs, which rouw rr&c are micropruccssor~hased especially devices used co Rourer The dollar rourers 'borcs' and dwices on networks, the Inrerner. non-rxisrrnr. businesses purchased, involwd wirh bur rhey rvere also inrimatrly supply industry. age, companies Indeed, II rhe were engaged in s&s a decade "go were prnctically murcr marker is now, by irsrlf, industry. rbe elccrric a n>ulri-billion dawn of rhc firsr elrcrric rhc cnrire electric clecrric motors, In 1998, rhere were over two million and almost one million food chain, from mnking lighr bulbs. or rlecrric rrolleys, co making planrs. the disrrih- shipped glohnlly, alone."' in rhc U.S. udon system, as \dl rhree-qoarrer Company monopolies, century Act, which as rhe powr (The now Holding inregrarrd Figure 5 contains scary for rhc Inrcrner. insrallad in the United rhe essence of rhe cncirc clccrric The royal numhcr Srares has grown 200 million d&cared and drawing uf computers from just over roday. The hirs old Public Urilirics broke up rhe wrrically is on rhe cable in Congress for repeal.) wo millior umber in I 97X co nrarly Today, There is no business IUUCIUIF analogous IO rhc GM elecuic age. Even though rhe hone manufacrurrd arc Ihave of chose compurers hi,, around. ro fccding ,>~a, rouring ntcrnct in :a~ Iax bits off the a drradr ago by rhe likes of Imel. Amdal, primary Ii& engines of clcctric or i~wolwnen~ IBM. growrh. Cisco or Cuml':"q such compnnics 1,:~ exploded 100 million from a few rhousand roday, intucsr in rhc Jcctric infi~nw~~rure.~ L L1,ll-,il,, I9PI, *,N~.~'lr:r.,nr c,r.c,~~l~l E3.V I i,.~l'~,,S,. ir'e., II< I 12 i // / F, , i " N E T R c G I $2 a I i t4 c 0 d L ,I :1111101~ docsn'r II11c~cr wht il\\Lllll,lli<,lls .,rc "lXlC 3. The dcviccr ,,,c ,,,WIICI arr rjx 7 &kb rhar are usrd m f&d information xwcrs and compuwrr companies, intu itx,~ retail abour rbc individual hour-consuming CICCC~~C ~nccds ol'~l>.~r ~manv kila,,ge the general relations i,,uItrated. Furthermore, the loill~r 1n13rketwas only ill th e tens of thomandi a decade ago. :he rod mmunt for U.S. policy makers and rnergy use d lhcrc lads m an eximarc of of hardware on rhc lncerner in 1998. rhv can be This figure can be used co exr~~pul~re. backward, grow& in rhc lnrerncr archirecrure. A time-tine / assemhlcd hr rcasonnblr echoes rhe growrh raw in digi- - : tal rraffk on rhe Inrcmer. End-we devices- accerring the Internet Estimating I" prmaple, rhe lnrerner . Kilowatt-hour calcularing involves Demand rhe nggrce.ue clccrric appcrirc of PCs constitute rhe primary end-use devices. rhe hardware Nor only has rhr the growth v&e of this only two srcps: of hoxcr on rhe people use co access rhe Inremet. declining indusrry, price of PCs been driving Esrimaring hrernrr, the total number and he averagr: annnd box. hur so IOO has rhr growing of rhc Inrcmcl. wirh x - Esrimaring IC-based k\\% use far a ypical Nor even a drcade ago, i[ was a rare household PC. Thr share of households wirh PCs now exceeds reridenrial PCs. Of 15 There is no single data source rh.lr rrxlcs of devices oi bores inrralled hrerner. Nonetheless, in rhe .lr;hirccrure r<~ m:& rhr numhe of rhc a reason:ablt of 50%, rcprcsenring thOSC, he esrimared million up. Momy over 50 million number '"on-line" ranges from ir is possible uniters; magazine &mates rhar at least 5 mitalone. [o Inret) owl approxjmarion Sources. I" simplistic of rhe lnrcrner using a varicy lion people use the lnwmer Furthermore, for invexment rhcre ~1: already (according rerms, there zre ibllr dirrincr in et&r. categories comprise ,, million homes wirh nvo or morr PCs, and there wit1 wirh mulriple PCs in five years. This Intel's recent introducbox; rhe easysystem m of boxes using elecrriciry rhe archirecture and which. be 28 million explains of rhe Interner. .xnd businsrses dominxed us' LO h! rhe driving force hchind 1. Thr: devices that c~ns~mcrs access rhe Inremet. PCS. rion of yer anorher K-USC hone link mulriple microprocessor-based rhir is curr~nri~ (or small business) nrtrworking PCs and periphrrals. 2. The devices rbar make rhr h::rner roums, amplifiers, transmitwn. possiblr: rtc. 0 cry.. ",~, ;.. 199i, ,I,-_r,p, Clcr ,,,, Is ii,lh * I_.i I,,. V!, 3:: IPC ,.I ovirchfr. i I", ,NTERNE, BLGlNS WITH CO&L PCs are also proliferaring menr, as noted earlier. Informarion in rhe business environEnergy PCs analysts believe that rhe non-PC ante" access of rbe Inrcrnet marker. Web-TV, applinnccs. or "informarion dominare applithe The mosr recrm will shorrly Administrarion survey found 43 million There are several million pan of rhe growing Then. People already using a called lnrerner sees rhrt emerfrom GE's refrigera- in business in 1995 (splir nlmosr equally and small businesses). million between large caregory Given annual sales figures of 36 only halfgo into conbusifor too, one increasingly units per year, ofwhich gance of new or enhanced Inrerner microwave devices ranging sumer markers, there is na doubt rhar the current ness invenrory replaccmenr is dramnrically and arrririon. PC cm a desktop oven, Electralux'r vending lnrerner higher, even accounting tor, Inrerner-enabled mous caregory machines, and an enorequip- of Inrerner-linked manufacruring The rypicnl rrand-alone is rarely a solo, or In addition ro ment. Finally, there arc Inremet-enabled telephones digital device, especially in homes. (horh wireless and wired), assisrants) of which successful. It would he reasonable and PDA's (personal the PC and rhe monitor, including prinrers, on* finds an array of devices drives, modems and so on. needs of rhe collection of rhe Palm I'ilorT'" has been rhe mosr scannrrs, The aggregare peak elecuic ro include rhe elecrriciry conrhe devices can exceed 1 ,OOD Warrs, sometimes even 2,000 WXlS. In order ro calculare of a PC connccred rhe rypical annual electric needs \\,e assume rhar rhc is use suming aspects ofall kWh for man&awing barreries, Wirh of rhe above devices, including rbr devices and rhe disposable for recharging barreries. rhe as well as rhe elecrriciry volumes ro rhe Inrernrr, producr already in rhe rens of millions, But currcrx PC and in peripherals are only on when rhe lnrerner undersrares aaual elecuic numbers may well he significant. dara sug- being accessed. This clearly gesr rhnr PCs are the dominanr pnrral ro rhc Intcmer. any of rhe elecrricir), access devices. This since it is a rare user who executes a full shutdown sysrems ar rhe end of every session. increasingly According poinrs co virrually of all Thus, rhis analysis does nor include used by any of rhe non-PC is, however, purposes. Inrerner Indeed, rhe evidence opera+ Research, rhc conrinual a caregory that will be critical for forecasring m recent surveys by Forresror average rime an-line week. The combinarinn for home users is 12.1 hours per Nemork devices - enabling the Inrewzet of rhe above facts yields somerhing Ir rakes kilnwarr-hours ro rransporr digiral birs around, rhe efijust as it rakes gasoline ro move hooks. cicncy of trnnsporring paper, rhe quanriry arc nsrr""omLcally The lnrerncr wxk ricare a PC in order 10 allow for son,r improven~cnri in manuhcruring efficiency since 1993. of elec- are over 3G million PC-cypr boxes shipped integrarand industries per square and of in Furtheimorr. triciry we assumed rhnr rhe ~lme amoun[ each year in rhe Unired Srates." cd circuits, hlanufactL~rir~g is needed IO make all devices on rhe Inrcmer. rhe larger rouwrr and mulriplr proccrsor of acrual fabricafor use on the and all rhe relared microprocessors electric intensive including devices, is one of rhe mox the narian. rlevices (undoubredly tion energy coso). lnrcrncr device :m coun[cd an undrresrimate Ir rakes abour 9 kilownrr-hours circuit." numbers Only devices fabricared i.e.. srand-alone inch ro lmake an integrated shipment billions ducror of microprocessors Fabrication PCs and similar will servr IO each year co Inrerner. in rhe hundreds rhe semicon- arc not counred. These assumprions allocared per year. Perhaps nor surprisingly, indusrry undererrimare manufacturing rhe rotal eiccrriciry is now the largesr manufacturing indurrry boxes 10 feed rhe growing in rhe Unired Srarrs, surpassing mmor vchiclr: pans and Only a decade ago, the semicoaducSummary Table: 1998 Electricity Use for the Internet rhe results of the research total accessories in 1794. IOC indusrry was rhe 17th largesr U.S. indusrry? fabricarion plants, so-called "fah" The following and calcularions table summarizes The mjcroprocessor plants, number reprerenrs rivaling Already, elecrriciry used IO estimate rbe approximate to power rhe Inrerner. in rhe several hundreds in rhc U.S. Each range, electric requiremrrnrs As explained in an electric load in the 10 co I5 MW inrensiry above, only maior clajses of devices have been included this preliminary Internet analysir. Excluded are PCs for non- rhe scale and electric of a steel mill. IO billion kWh of fab planrs alone require nearly use, lnrerner appliances such as Web TVs, mosr per year.'* This demand approaches producrion. When 0.5% of telecom equipmenr, as well as rhe entire class of data We did include rhc proporrion all U.S. electricity industry amoum circuirs directly rhe balance of the rhe switches used in networks. linked co fab planrs is included, &cared m fabricating alone (wirhour of telecom central office switches devored IO data u&c. The derailed assnmprions culari~ns are conrained and dam sources for these calin rhe extended cable at rhe end of elecrriciry inregrarcd regard to rhe and microprocessors rest of rhe boxes) approaches I% of rhe roral US supply. and supported by an of this document. The rstimorcd rhe Inrerncr rhe on&n's total growth focal amount of elecrriciry required by The fnb planrs are supplied enrirely new inirasrrucrure nod materials SEMI). North industry industries American rhe semiconducror (wirh their own rrndc production of is compared, conI clccrriciry ar rhe bottom of rhc mble. vo equipment association, equipmenr work 1773. industry for all purposes :and co rhr supply. 100 million in U.S. elcctriciry to supply rhe hardware that makes fab plants in The resulrs show rhar the approximarely boxes on the Inrerner rric supply. (Now is over $15 billion The mar&& now, up from $5.3 billion consume 84/o of rhe rotal U.S. elec- supply side for iab plants is an in rhe U.S. alone (speciatand services again rhar rhis does not counr all ocher This is mope elecrriciry indusrry than is con(including by char is over $8 billion erc.). USCEfor computers.) cy gaxs, chemicals, devoted exclusively industry, And the software sumed by rhc entire metal processing steel and aluminum), all industries involved co supporring half oiwhich iab planrs make up 3 is in rhe U.S." or more than is used collecrively in rhe chemical, petroleum and $14 billion Considering amount rhe above facts. it makes sense rhar rhe used m make a single PC is about paper production. By irsclf, rhe Inrcrner dispersed. is already one of ofelecrricity rhe biggesr, albeir widely pnrrs of rhe elecrric- 0 <"r)r,e,,, >*vq, C.rllli,,q ." ,,, ,*,ra ,,,," I, i ..,, ia,,:, ,,,/ I, jyr ,,, 11,, THE ,NlERNLT BEGlNI WITH co41 consuming infrasuuccure of rbe U.S. economy. rhe infmsrruc~urc at double-digir ran. Unlike of rhc in commercial should provide magnirude. According commercial almu buildings. N onerhclcrr. rhr EIA survey other sectors af rhr: economy, Inrerner is growing monthly "sanity" qorr a value thn~ would bc in the same order of A reasonable able in rhc ,995 cheek of rhis estimare is availfrom rhe U.S. Deparrmenr Administration Commercial of co rhc EIA survey, rhe 43 million buildings used 98 billion PCs in kWh in 1995, or Energy's Energy Information PC use in commercial will undrr reprerenr survey of buildings 2.2 billion kWb per million uniww PCs. This snalyris buildings.:' finds an Inremer 100 million ar rhe end of 1998 ofabour using 290 billion kWh, 01 rhe total universe nf Inrcmet-&red PC-type device Table 2: Summary of analyris. note: The table inciudes only devices wed on the lntemet. PCs for other user and other types of information appliances (e.g., WebTV) are no, counted. For details, see section 7. manufacruring and all related componcnrs Kmters, servers. (Only for PCs, tar WWW) User boxes Routing boxes PCs used in home & businesses. Devices used m roure data rraffic. Servers for sires & dot-corn compa- Supply boxes Using boxes to access the Net Home Oftice 81 million 75 Operaring PCs in business & homes for accessing rhe Inrerner. 41 40 31 44 PCs ac home off~e PCs in officer; & home office. includes some WAN. Boxes feeding info into Net 4 million 124 Hosrs 81 dot-corn ler"rrS, companies using scn'cr appliances. Boxes moving on Net TOTAL Growrh Growrh lnrerner lnrernrr bits 3 million 67 Using routers 81 40% of &cum Cellrrnl offices. 108 million 295 I'988 - 179s 1988 - 1998 1988 1998 kWb roral. in lnrerncr kWb 285 kwh 700 kwh in k-i%% 400/o 8% in roral U.S. rlecuic share of 311growrh share of ALL U.S. kWb U.S. 3,300 billion computers (as a resulr, home PCs and mat devices wan'r be counted). rourers and III addiriun, fewer cum1992 to 1995 abour 2.9 billion spndcnce brnrccn kWb per million PCs. The close corrc- relarrd swirrhing rhcse two surveys makes sct,sc wbcn a 1995 survey will accounr for rubstanrially purers than exist roday. The gmwrh fror one considers the higher dury cycics for 11x Inrc~~ncr corn compurcir (many lntrrnc~ dcviccs parrd co ,m,~~ u&c run 24.by-7). in rbc MA survey was from 30 million co 43 milliw KS The lbighcr resulu for this analysis arc also c; co,,ll,y,,c IWC blllll "!, /",.., I,, ,,% MCC .,,, I,, I LII,_, ,,,,. (lC1.l, ,,,I I /t i I N T i R N i I B i b / N 5 w I I H c 0 c L cmsistenr to Fahricm with uur inclusion (not just operxr) of the electric the PCs. requirements Historic growth in Internet clocrricity electric use and rotal to exrrap- The 1998 crimated Inrcrner consumption Finally, as a further Internet compurcrs devices dcrivcd check on the 100 million here, the total universe ofall ar the end of 199X was in lnrernct use box count can be used a, a benchmark in rime to reveal tile growth elate backward lnternris in the Ihe key co in rhe U.S. invenrory use of dcvicrs and kilowarr-hours. is a rcliablc Much historic ofrhe just ovec 200 million. Given the growth this reverse extrapolation Internet-connecred the Internet record of dara for and the fact that the rota1 U.S. inventory comparers was 80 million here deviccr. bisroric in 1993, the general results obtained in trrms of total allocntion is inaccurate and inconsistent. The number surveys, The appear reasonable Inrerner. ro the of users is derrrmined by still relatively unreliable most of which only go back a few years at most. in this analysis suggest an overall of 3,000 kWh/year per PC-type with drvice number of Web sites and domain indicative Thp results derived approximate of drvice relationrhip names is inrerrsting in and broadly commercial of the trsff~c on rhe Intcmec on the lnrernet. This result is consisrcnt that an average PC-rypc (this would include terms or dara bandwidth hardware terms, but it is nor on rhe Inrerner. the general proposition requires about a kilowatt desktop and network a useful metric for counring Multiple individual relevent Web sites and domain sewers. names can be located on peripherals) and operates on average (across all types of devices) 3,000 hours per year. The 3,000 hours per year is the rough average of the 650 hours a year typical for a home PC on the Interner, com- The rmost reliable single. hardware-bared hrerner connected activity indicator of in terms of specific pieces of hardware is the tracking of total nwnber with a rcgis- to the ncwork pared to rhe 8,760 hours Per year for a 24.by-7 rouring or serving device. of millions lnrernet of "hosrs."?~ A host is a specific computer The total number tered "ip address." of microprocerconsume so much is so recent visit accurately computers. 80,000. of hosts has been The fact that hundreds sors in over 100 million electricity tracked since 1969 when there were four host In 1979 there were 188. By 1989 there were At the end of 1998 there were ovet 40 million. rhe World Wide boxer would makes sense. Howe&, the growth and so rapid that the result is surprising. supercomputer sands of parallel provide They Journalists Since the universe of hosts includes \X'.b, we have alloared market. The year-end centers and WM Poetic about at the rhouprocessors and memory devices used to machine. 70% of the hosts to the U.S. 1998 benchmark compared of 30 million a thousand-fold power over a desktop hosts on the Internet, million Inrerner PC-relotrd to a total universe of 100 a ntin of total only now rhe need for a dedicated severnl-megxwatt devices, provides power murce co power and cool such info beasrs. But thousands of processors take the same power whether sit- devices to hosts. This ratio can be used to the historic host data. record of total number The ratio status, is also of growl> of lr~ternct devices hy npproximare using historic ting in parallel with each other in the same box (a sopercomputer) America nesses. As revealing current important Inrerneis as rhese conclusions apPrrite are regarding the or linked in rhausands in parallel and distributed across Figure 6 plots the historic hosr computers derivrd of boxes in rnztny homes and busi- in the U.S. on the Jnrcmet. from this study for the 1998 year-end ahour 3 toral lnrernet plorted, BOXS."~' devices per host computer, ma1 elrcrric of the Internet, ir is equally and is shown as the linr for "All Internet to gain a picture of the growth kilowart-hour demand. rate of the The trend will reveal imporranr much about the near future, with potentinlly implications for electric supply, price and reliabiliry 0 coi.r,,i-l ., ., .,_, 11?P rllln;,/9 Ei,lh ,,..,, ,~.,,, ~,,.~ icr,*x, ,,.. THE ,NTERNET BEGINS Wii" COAL Total U.S. Computer Installations 40 20 0 1989 3 Council,HObk'l ,nternet 50 0 a In order co illuxrare rhe historic growth in electricity used by compurers on the lnrernet in particular, w apply rhr: average elecrric use prr million compuwrs used on rhc ~nrerner for each year. Figure 8 illusuatcs this trend in Source: ,niormation Technologyl"d"W Timeline,& MM&A Illi The relation&p developed in Figure 6 can then be inre- lnrerner clrcrriciry use, and further compares it to the use of electricity by ail compurcrs (including chose on rhe hterner).~ The &&city consumprion of non-Inrerner compur- grared wit11 anorher relatively reliable dara series - rhe md universe of installed compurers. Nore again rhar the dara for "all" computers does nor count devices such as routers, which are included in rhe Internet count. This omission on the pan of rhe data collection SOUKEis a mult of rhe facr rhar rouw~s were a tkually non-exisrent ers ir derived from rhe invcnrory data of the lnformarion Technology Industry Council, wirh rclevanr annual elecuic ure assigned IO rhc three broad categories of compurus in rhe dara XI: micros (includes PCs), minis, and mainframes. (Scr 'Table 3.) Figure 8: computer share OfalI kWh used:pill camwters & ,nternet miy* 15 10 5 0 device compared m compurers and PCs a decade ago. The annual growrh in rhe invenrory of routrrs in rhe U.S. has increased from 300,000 added in 1995 IO one million added last year. Thus, the "all" cornpurer s&s somewhat undrrsrarrs rhe current roral inrenrory on the order ofseveral million boxer. The error wuld not be visible on rhis data srrirs several years ago, and is only relevnn~ co forwnrd, not reverse, exrrapolarions. Figurr 7 plors rhe mral derivrd invcnrory of all lnrrrner compurcrs with the mral invenrory of ALL compurers. Since the lnrerner is widely crcdircd as rhe primnry driving force for rhe growrh and use in compurcrs o\rr rhe par five years or so, rhe relarionship shown in Figure 10 makes sense. In fact. average annual shipmenrs of all comparers in rhc late 1980s and rhrough 1971 ranged from I tu 10 million units per year. Annual shipments rrarred rising exponentially in 1992, reaching 23 million in 1995 and 36 million last year. In shon rhe lnrernrr is he primnry force pushing up 111~ coral invcnrory. ior tsing Estimatedannualelectric conrumption U.S.computel-s annua,iiwentoly from ITI Data Book,and the foilowingaw"lptio"S for eachdevicetype: 90% mitm *Ml 4hrlday 300 dayi B ,kW inc,. periptwair, 10% run 24.7; 80% of mini's4hrlday and 20% 24-7 @ sg. 3 kw; mainframes, 21-7 @ mg. 10 kW. Total and compared dli to ma, annual U.S. owl ilie from DOEEl* annual EnergyReviw Notethe appraximations ihereyield a 1995 re6"lt Of8% Of a,, used U.S.Wh for tnta, inYC"tOlY 11, million camputeri; DOWEM of of ill ,995 S"rYFy cOmp"terS Lommerciab"iiding (i.e. not total "nib YWl?~ found43 miiiionCOni"mi"g4% of nationalelectric bUDply. 1978 1988 1998 6 rCill.,;l,, ,,.,,,, ,,*_, ,999, ,,:,,_ 61111,,Ily L h ,,,,., r.,,l' ,,,, 5:,r,PI" h THE ,NTFVNE, REGlNl V,lTH COAL Table3: GC"wth iwentoryof comprlteri ihe ".S and i" ; year :' i I: :.,',.,,, To&, : 1989 1998 ; Ships 8.700 : ; i Install 42.000 190.000 i. ., : i Ships 8,500 Micros j : ; Install 4O,?rlD 170.000 i, : Ships 228 : 765 Minis : ; : lnsrall 1,550 3,200 : i i Mainframes Ships I? 12 i i i Insrall 97 161) j ; 36,000 ; 35,000 source:,niormation TeChnOiogy l"d"Stry Council MiClOIareclarsifiedasCOmp"tCri carting$,,OOO $24,999klthougl, the lowerelld domi"atES categoryl, to this "link from$25,000to $149,999, mainiramer $350,000. end owr BitdkWh: The Fuel Economy of the Internet tons pcr yrnr of coal alone. (The balance of rhr currcnr dcrric heI mix is nbour 20% nuclear, 10% mm~ral gas, Having derived a reasonahlr approximation quanricy ofclrctriciry of the moral rrquired by the U.S. Interner. ic very roughly, rhc "fuel 10% lhydro. 5% oil and rhe xx miscellancu~~~.Kcncwables such BI grorhermal, wind. solar, erc.. total under O.l?Jl. The amounr of fixI nccded to create, maintain, access and operare rhe Interrier can be reduced CDwry basic trrms ifwc know rhe amounr of trnfic on rhr Ner in bytes per year. This number is nororiously ditticulr m nail down brcause of its inherent complexity and rhe rapid growrh in rraf&c. However, rrlec~m ragr George Gilder has esrimared rhar coral Web rraffic grew from 30 rcrabyres per month ar rhc rimr ofrhe Inrerneci privarization in 1995, ro four perabyres (15 zeros) per month in mid 1998. Traffic is cstimared co be growing at roughly 10 fold per year, which would yield rotal 1998 rraffic of something like 500 perabyter. The 300 billion kWh used in 1778 TOmove all rhose hyres provides for ahour 1,700 Kbytes per kWh. To put this in morr familiar terms, moving about fwo Mcgnbyres on rhe Net uses: * The same amount ofenergy as running a 50 '8 lighr bulb for 10 hours. * The amount ofcncrgy rcleasrd by burning a pound of coal. So roughly speaking, when a book is ordered from Amazon.com or an MI'3 music file is downloaded. somewhrrr in America halfa pound ofcoal is burned m make rhe hxd power m energize rhose soft bits." should be possiblr LOc&dxe, economy" of rhc Inrerner - in ocher words, rhe amount of clecrricity needed per Kilobyrc of dnra moved on the nrtwork. There is a common misperception rhar the digital age, cyberspace, is free of the consrrainu of rhe physical world: bits replacing amms, in thr language of Nicholas Negroponre, MIT's digiral sagr. To be sue, bits do replace acorn5 - the use oft-mail instcad of physical ("snail") mail. releconfeerencing instead of flying are the rwo examples. There are many more. However, i[ is a mistake to believe that rhe birs are somehow frcr. As this analysis has shown, rhe laws of physics apply to elecrrons on rhe Inrernet jusr as they do everywhere else. It rakes a lot of power m make and energize an electric infrastructure of the magnirude of rhc Inrerner. A total annual consumption of nrarly 300 billion lillowarr-hours requires a subsranrial amount of fuel to br consumed. This power rcquiremcnr exceeds rhe total &uric ourput of Iraly. This is not the kind of power you can ger from solar cells or handhrld calculacars. On the US. elrcrric grid, which is 56% co&fired, nearly a billion mns of co31 is consumed - thus rhe Inrernet's share of fuel use is on rhe order of 70 million 9 r/l*,l~V"x 1IV". brrr,,,,,l ,, ", ,, I LJ,lll s,>, *I, ,.,, ,,, ,HE ,N,ERNET BLG,NS 'NIT" COAL Architectural Implications . A New Electric Reliability Anyone on the uriliry front lines inrcracring wirh business cuxomrr~ has noriced rhe growing demand for relinbiliry l'hc trend has jut begun a predicrable ramp-up and is driven almw enrirrly by [he informarinn age and the of the Internet: Paradigm In a similar ;ysrcms fur dara ncnvork sysrem rrliabiliry. vein. rhe conversion of rrarlirional relephonc traffic to tbc :Inra-based Inrcrnct, and IO cable-bared Inrc-mer services, also bring cno~mous new challenges for power reliability. The firsr public indicnrions of this concerfi are jusr now being voiced. According co Mile Medin, CT0 for @Home (soon IO hc parr of AT&T): Inrernct in parriculnr. Ir used ro be char utilities could counr on cusmmers acknowledging rhr rrmarkable level of reliabiliry achieved in delivering power over rhausands of miles of exposed wires and ail the complex elecrrical engineering problems rhat attend rherero. Bur rhar is na more, and nor brcause reliabili~ is lower. Instrad, rhe "Of'Olu,~ togirariinteefnulr-pro~fphone wuice, h (digital) neru~orih nmh rolzut, rdinblc ah "new" economy is demanding cvcr higher lwcls of rcliabiliry. In effecr, a significant and rising share of rhe elcc&supply system mw now emulnrc rhe reliability sysrem. As cngincers in powersolotamyput ,,r*i~geire,ar"vr in orother pot"eriu~plier. -1. ,*o. Ohservarions like rhis should srnd a clear message of conccn~ IO chose in tbr elrcrriciry supply businesses and. perhaps, signal apporruniry IO orhrrs. The "canary in rhe mint" indicarors for rhe direcrion of reliahiliiy demands, in rhe cornpurer age arc visible in recent CUSCO~TI surveys. A 19% survey by RKS found rhar one-fuurth ofbusincsw are rroublrd by sporadic demands of a cammunirarions borh communiries know, rhis is a quanrum change. The r&phone sysrem and rradirional rclecommuni- carions indusrry have achirved a level of reliabiliv unmarched in sraristical rrms by any ocher indusrriat acriviry. The 'old' r&phone rage wcr the &uric ofachieving sysrem had a disrinct advan- s~~srem (and rho Internet) in wrms reliabiliry; the bandwidth and nssocinred nuragrs or power ilucruarions. wirh over one-third "Ias rhm very saristied" wirh rhe qualiy of rheir power. The survey found nvo-rhirdr of hurincsrcs already taking some kind of&on on rhcir own to redress inrerruprions, wirh power requiremenrs for moving voice rraFFc is very tow and can be effecri\+ prorecred from power ourages by using barrerie (albeir, in some cases, fairly exrensivc barrery arrays). IHowever. you cannor back-up mcgawatrr and gigawns wirh barrrries. The arcbi~ec~re of rhe 20 pcrcenr willing IO pay n premium for more rclinblr powrr.~' A,, Ink.1 rrudy found that a +c.,l cx,xricnces I 20 "pow cornpure, lnczrner, and rhc magnitude ofrhe handwidrh and rraffic, have driven dx pcwcr needs in digiral commurlicxions co enrirely new Iwcls, levels more +cal of clccrric power prot~lcms" per monrh.?" A snrvcy of small husincrres (rhc engine of economic growrb in rhc narion) found 90% rrporring ar lea one ouragr in 1998, wirh average coxs per ouraga uf $7,500."' The sensirivi~ w, 2nd self-assessedcosts uf, small ourages zre a ,mcxurc ,f rhc increased need for reliable puwcr, which can only x a surrogare measure of rhc increasing role ofcompur:rs and comm~micarions in alI rypes of busmesses. hsinesscr recrosschc country are alwady drciding ro my prcmiumr fur grrarcr rcliahilir~. They're buying ~minrcrrupriblc puwcr sources (UI'S) soluciox >a< *I> I,,,~ rysrems rh;m of relecommunicarion systems, crearing IWW and unique demands for power quxliv and rcliahilir)r Recognizing rhis new universe, Ericsson rccenrly illiriared a study group to explore rhe implicarions of prox,iding rcliablr power ZOU~LCI digital traffic ns rhe rrafor ditional &cnm sysrcm convcr~s m handling dnrx primarcraffrc." Ericsson. in fair. products and dicrcl gcnererar ily, insrond ofwicc dwir own lint of harrrry-back-up This rwli- ;, L:>,I,l,I,,I SW"*, blrr-,,,y /Illh n,, ( I,IIL,,:,,' d ' ,_,. i,a,"l, IHF Ib4TE*IIET BE:,us WITH CO"< ty has bcrn rhc driving forcr behind rhc rapid gruwrh of comp~~nies like American Powrr Conwrrinn (AI%). Firms such as Wursilla and Caterpillar. wid> rhcir ulrra&an d&cl gcn-xrs. arc likely hen&cinrics ar 11x upper end afa growing on-sit? back-up power marker. Increasingiy, one cm enpccr co find 100 TO300 kW clean diesel grn-rers in rhe bxmenrs of buildings housing lnrcmer Scrvicr: AI'C has become R marker leader in UPS equipment for everything from deskrnps ro m:ainframe. (The challenge for uGlitia in providing rhis service is rhs psychological conversion, of'~ ncg.,rive, an "nnrcli~bie" core producr. into n porirk customer pmgmm.) Pruvidrrs (wirh rhe Fuelsource rirhrr nnrur~l gas or oil, drpending on price and circumscuxcs). Rounding OUI rhc Inrerner~powcr package. entire building powr ryxems can and will be completely is&red from rhr 'noisy' or 'dirv' bulk power grid. A&c flywh& Power of A&n, TX, usesone-ton Whrn E'rmdc wcr,c dawn for a couplr of days e.ulier rhis year, it wasn't because of an clrctrical ounge. bur because of a rafiware glitch. Bur die rwerbenrions from rhar nuclgr have impI&rions in rhe exploding world ofe- IO rewc ai UPS sysremr for building lands up to commrrce. When an enrirc business depends un rraying online "24-by-7," rherc are two critical issues: Keeping sofrware from crxhing and kreping power up every one of rhe 8,760 hours in a year. Commercr on the ner grew from narhing a decadr aso co $8 billion l&r year, and is ~rrc:~sr IO reach $326 billion by 2002. A recenr ranking of the rap 100 "Net Economy" companies (based on a survey of 600 candidares) found rhar rheir combined Web rrwnue was $48 billion in 1998." The stakes are high in keeping rhe Ncr on line. Opcmrions such ax Schwab's Inrerner brokerage operation and char ofAmazon.com are only rhe tip of rhc iceberg. Big e-rerailers have 100 kW IO 1 MW loads and rnur have emergengv power back-up soluriqns. Bur wirh dot-corn companies exploding from the woodwork (Barnes &Noble followed Amazon into the Inrernet and many orh- 250 kW Already. some:developers are designing huildin~s wirh two enrircly scpararc power sysrems; oudcu for dumb appliances (lighrs, erc,) and oudets for 'bmsrr" clean powrr, rhe 24.by-7 reliable: power char comer from super-UPS syswmr with backq gcnerarors. Whilr major dor-corn compnnies already number in rhc tens of rhowands, it is rhe orhrr rnd of rhe rpecrrum where rhe ncrion is especially hoc. There are ar leasr 4 million Web servrr rysrems in rhe U.S. - compurers on-line honing Wb sira. And in bcnveen rhc servers and (he users. which wed IO be on 24.by-7 with rheir rerx.ers and driver, are rhr: millions of rovers rhx keep rhe ner hor (and rhc millions of rransmiwrs rhar keep the emerging wireless Inrerner running). These numbers don't ewn count rhc 80 million home lnrrrnsr users who. while perhaps slightly more rulemnc rhan businesses.don'r like ro pw up wide pawcr hiccup while on&c. Of comparlblc intrrest for ers are FolIowind, the demand for big-rime UPS solutions and major back-up power salurions will skyrocker. American Supcrconducmr stands to bencfir from rhose who need hcay iron UPS capnbility Their rcfrigernror- rcliabiliry are the I7 million relecommurcrs wirh one to two PCs who depend on reliabili~ as much as any business. Onr should crpecr IO XT incrensr~ in markers for hack-up generaror 2nd power sysrcms for home &as wirh srnsirix sized suprtrconducring srorage system can handle rhe awesome rnsk of smoorhing our millisecond dips for sevcr.d megawarts ofpower. They recently unveiled anorhcr application for rhcir Superconducring Magnetic Sroragc Devices (SMEDS]. By undertaking 1 nenvork analysis of regionzd placcrnent loads. The marker opportunity is nlrady generaring interesting products. The Aungcn 5 kW generaror is insralled under rhe hood of a Suburban or Expedition (or similar size truck - larer co be availablr for cermin cars). Why buy an engine-bared back-up gcneramr for home use when homeownm already own an ourstanding rnginc under rhc hood of rhcir SLVs? The Srowch in rhe demand for power reliabiliv on mansmission rysrems, srrategic of dozens of SMEDS can actually incre.ze rotal transmission raliabilicy and power quali~. This kind of cappnbiliry,hercrofore impossible, comes jusr in rime for rhe power quality nerds of an Inrcrner-driven electric rysrem. chr Inrcrn;,dF1, ,,,r iHE ,NTERNLT BEGlNS WITH Lo*, mcrce rerailers and home offices rhar dr& growing vend of "manufacrurr-ro-order" it. With rhc in rhe indusrrial nsdlation of revcral MW rurbincs. cssenrially placed ~erween cenrral po,ver ,>lanrs and major load cenrrrs." This mx only reliwcr transmission constraints. but also in~~eascsrriinbiliry Did anyone really &ink &a~ rhe power demands and reliability needs of 100 million PCs and KM of rhousands of major dor-corn loads would leave rhe elccrric marker d,c iamr as rhar demanded by light bulbs, motors and inducrion furnaces? The rate of growth in the use of devicss r&ted co rhc sector, along with just-in-rime delivery economy, everyone depends on rhe lnrerner 2nd communications. Hewlrrr-Packard, typical of modern info-economy high tech manufacrurcrs, reckons a 20.minure ourage cosn a mnnufacruring plani $30 million. The hundreds of companies in rheir supply chain xc jusr as sensicivc. No one can xfford to be down. Even telephone sysrems now need a UPS, because many modern office phone syrrems are rcaily compurcrs and even for relatively small oftices can gohblc several kilowarrs. The nature and magnitude of electric demand driven by rhc Interner ulrimarely sug~esrs rhar rhr rlecrric supply and deliwy sysrem will need IU cmulare rhe archirecture Inrerner, and rhe icsuhant elecvic nerds, suggesrs rhar rhose on the dara side and rhose on rhe power supply side of rhe Inrcmet don'r have a lot of rime to consider the implicarions. The t&corn industry is hcing rapidly transformed by ofrhe Inremer irself co achieve the IcvcIs of reliability required. One should evpecr co see increased use nor only of UPS and disrrihured on-site gnerarion, hur power node rhc Inrerner. A decide ago, dam accounred for only a marginal unoun~ of rhe rraffic on rhc rraditional 'wirelint" nenvorh. As Figure 9 illustrates, in a couple of wirh remore ger,erarion and srorage, and e~cn a second wirr. When ielecommunicil~ionc deregulation began two decades ago, no one imagined rhar homes and small businews would ever wanr or nrrd more than one communi~arian wire to rhe home. andeveryonc was certain rhar rhe costs of providing addirional "rcdundan? wires would proscrihe rheir widespread USC. All rhe evpcrrr were term uin that rhe narianal communicarions infrastrucrure was so evpensivc rhar it was a narural monopoly. The na~innal communicarions backbone has been built now swcml mimesuvrr - and consrrucrion of backbone bandxvidrh continues. Now two wires to n home nre common (phone and cable, soon more wi&ss and CVCI,fihcr). Jrears DVCIone-half of all rhr rraffic on rhe traditional old 'voice" nework will be digiral. This trend is nor only .esponsihlc far major equipmrnr and technology transfornlrionr, bur i[ is also fundnmenrally altcring rhe entire :&corn and communi~arions industry, and is a driving jrce behind major invcsmxnrs, mergers and acquisi10115. Consider rhen an analogous siruarion. Figurr IO repxsrnts rhe growrh in rhc rhari: of rmal elecrron "rraffic" xl rhc tradirional uriliry sysrem ncnvork, powerlines. A few years xgo. wrr 98% of all powcrlinc ~IecIron rrafic was in kWh to scwc 'old' m:ukcrs or dumb dwicrs (kikIY~~~-II~II~~ operarr dumb dcvirus like lighrhulbc. nnd co of mcnnrr). As 16s analysis has slmw~. rlw sh11rc [hc pawcrline elecrran rraffic devored IO rhr lnrernrt is ;,lrsndy 8% and rising rapidly, Given rhe rrcndr. ic seems renonablc (,xrhaps inevirablrr) [o expecr char rhe powiline nenwrk will erprricncc a rransformation comparable CDrhar nf chc &corn wi~elinc ncrwork. Once a signi&- All of rhis sugars a similar heresy in rhc electric power business: rhc second power wire is inevirnhle coo. nor as rhe only reliabiliv soluion. hur as pnrr of rhe porrfolio of rcliahility solurionr. Expecr IO see ir tirrr in business crnters where office buildings, already srerped in rhe hub and node mudo of rile Inrcmei, wll srarr co install dirrrihured gcnrrarian and storage hubs 2nd nudes. The cmularion of Inwrnct archi~ccwrc will mow up lhe pnwer lines ro subsrarions whcrc on6 cnn cxpccr co xc CXII share of powerline rraffic is occupied by rhc Inrerncr. one cm rxpccr major infrastrucrurc 1~x1husincss rransfor~mxiw~s of rhe same ch:~r:~cwras arc 1n0woccurring in rbc ICICCOIIIitdmrrry, I-low soon rhis ~~.~~~sfO~~~~:~~io~, could e C"o),,Y,,, 1199, crpr ,,,,, * F*lls, s*c~~:1 Y,,,i~,dr,rrll,l d ii,~il~illl, lllC THE ,.,TERNET CFGllli 'ViTii : " * L occur will drpd Ikcd hn o,, rhc grawih rnrr of rhc Inrerncr. _ yx<, "f :t,, &C~liC "u,','ly C"llPLunCd by IhC I"KIIICI on rtxen~ hisrury, and nor assuming any CICCCIC~S _ would occur around 2020. in the ~nrcrner's utilization. rhe magic cross-OYC~ w / Tranrforma,iails the Internet by mure 9: Telecom traffic 0" Wirelines % of all uireline traffic Figure10: Electron tram on powerlines To% 80 60 40 20 60 40 ,997,998 1999 20012002 2000 source: mtmuest " 0 1994,999 source: extrapOlatiO" Figure in thii anaiyiir of 8 w roY",,Y,,, tin09 Brl*v,~,l ea.11 5ormrti I,.?, ,' Y/C,>,,h, d /%~?C,1111, I,,% THE INTERNET BLGlNS WITH COAL c 2, Id Future Trends: Driving Internet If;: /i r:,. :i,:-i.,-+d~.+,,:i,:-~.~~~,,r:,,.-, ,:.$:',":, (milk) ,..i', (billion) MAKE THE BOXES FOR THE INTERNET Key assumptions ., :, _. ~~ ,; y ,',:, : . i, ,, -,,, " I / Elrcrriciry usrd co ma"ufmurc rhc kry PC-type boxes nccded I" ucccss, supply and roure informariun on rhe lnrrrrrer. . 1,500 kWh ncedcd IO fzhricare onr PC "' * I.500 kWh assumrd ior ALL compurcrs, including de\,icrs nirh grearer numbers uf procrrsorr (e.g. roureri, sewers) * Now: 9 k\Vb per square inch required 10 fhricare inrrgrxcd circuit I' * Nutc: 36 million comparers shipped in 1998: onl) rhusc for \WV\V use in rhe U.S are included in this roblc 2 PCs for home use of Inrcrnrr 5 7.j - ,.krume 50% of 10 million new PCs purchased by coniumeri arc used for lnrerner /' - Now rhat currcn~ rstimaws arc char 80% of PCs shipped are connecred [o lnrernsr ** * Assume45% of new/purchased business PCs arc conncrred dire+ to rhe Inrerner, or on a LAN or WAN connected to rhe Interncr (ofwn rhrough a "firewall") - Since coral U.S. sales of36 million computers in 1998 included IO million m consomers, thus allocate 45% of'halancrr of 26 million sold m business " * Year-end 1998 4 million xwers on lntcrner compared co 1.5 million par-end 1997: growrh of2.5 million '* . ~rsume 50% marker for Wb scwcrs (and r&cd dcvicer) in U.S. " - Low-cost 'lowend' devices assured 05% marker: PCS for office 12 18 Servrrs 1 1.5 Server applinncec Routers 0.5 I 0.8 I.5 grows CDI ')?foof mnrkcr hy 2002 4 * Now kWh m fabricare rourerr will be higher rhan for PC &xobably >3x); bUC95511111e iasf& PC for amc c""scr"a~ive &mm. . 1 million shipped 1998 in North American marker '~ . Smiry check: coral Fah plant riecrric use of 9~9 k\VX' (Note fab planrs excludes suppliers of chrmicals, pu. equip., Cyrassemblers uf PCs) - IC hbricarion reprexntr <500/uof all kWh needed SUBTOTAL (nearcsf million) 20 29 c zoc,, ,,ct 1999, il/l,,,,ll, nlln i:L,II, ,, "., r ,,,,. .,,,. ,,,,_ ,,,. THE ,NTERNET BEGlNP iv,," COAL 7 ,.: - ,:: ; ,v:,.., ;" $ ,: ).. ':.: i+ a+&p$+~{t~,~~, ':F, 1 " :- I' ; ,:,,,,,,,,,, ~: '; ::,, ,,." -, ,;.,:,y Ly';:,y,~,', ,.,:,; ::,':iy., : <,! ;::+,.:s ., ,. \ j :;"r,: ;,,:'>.A; ., !' +j+( J /' ,, : ,,,,:::; .,~ _.,. ,:j ..".i I,.j/, ,~I,, ~::;,?-.,:'7:i;,'~~~,," .i ._ ,I. ':','I-; .*.: ,,, ,~i,,;F', ,j,. :, ...... ., ,,. L ,, " :~,i .+;;:;;.,:; < ':,:;;~~~.~~~~'.':1~~~::,~~~, i t &&nc mtd online universe of approx. 77 million .,i,.,. Elecrriciry uxd by "end-users" while oprraring boxes I" access rhe Inrernei. PCs @ home people in U.S. end of 1998" , Excluder 6 million using WcbTV or handheld 2x 17 computers - 60% of 55 million homes with PCs are "regular" Inrrrner "scrs.5? I Reduce m~ai by rhe number "f home "power user? bclnw t" nv"id double c"unt * Axacrage user 12 hrsiwk "n line daug.lK\Yildeskmp" . count of lh"useh"lds using Inrerner for on-line wading "f invesrmcnrs " . Assume power user 2x average consumrr timelwk "nline - ~veragc use rises (one study found a five fold increase) with grcarer bandwidth accrss for power users " * Cnunr hume offices w mulriplc PCs " . Assume "nc PC online avg. 20 hrsiwk . Assume ave. "ffce use of WWW samr 12 hrriwk ils avg. home use 81 samr I kW average per machine * Now toc2l reprerenrs only 30% of all 112 milli"" PCs connecrcd I" LANs in 1998" . ~rsumc operarion of 70 huurriwk (avg. dq cycle of I 0 hrsiday 7 days/week) * 'lad count errimated by xsuming that only 5% "f PCs in business rhar arc n"r dir+ connecred 1" WWW arc used dirccrly as lnrcrnrr supporr. connecied I" ncnvorks behind a secure 'frewall'.'" I 5 * Asrurne lnrerne: sufnwrc supporr & devclopmcnr PCs a': 2 kWh/deskr"p wirh &vanr peripherals. ,monirors %" - Assume 50 hrslwk "pcrnrion * S:~nicy check: abwe de&cd cxim:w "f40 rmillion office PCs or ln~rner only is .3O?G inrrallcd inww of tory of I 20 million commcrci~l PCs, and csrimnrrd 44 billion Ik\Vh pwbably undcwrrin~arcr acwal 3nnu31 IkWh by Lxror of nv": rurvcy found 43 Imillion PCs (f"r all purposes) in c"mmcrci:d buildings in 1995 c"nsumrd 98 billion kWh '"' - PC power users @home (c-traders) 5 6 PC home &ice PC 6%"ff,'C R 34 8 21 PCS @ office (not direcrly on wWW but behind 'firewall' supporring lnrerner access, info. 0~ sysrrms) PCs used in commercial lntrmer service supporr 5 18 SUBTOTAL 81 75 ,. ,,, :,,: ,l,." r,,., ,,, L ,,,, <, ,,": ,V" ,,u ,,,,,, I !.,.,,, .,, I 30 T H E I h 1 i R N F T B E : I N 5 i'l I1 n c 0 A L +&~-: ij;;.; : ,,: i:,, $;;;:~,-;, ':, nir;~ ,..,.:~, :~ .I ,,,. r,, ~,'~' ',~, ',.,j ;<;,,'x':;~ ;',$'.~ ;.;,I *:;., ,,;:,: ,; ,,.: /,.&,& 'L:, i ~+,,,nu~,' ~;~.z < .~ 7 " j : < of boxes ',_:/' kwh,::;EI:,y c. :: ;,;:::.; ; ~:~':,'.~~,::,'~~~~!. Yr:i : ;:.,;;;i,:,',' ,I @&a) '.::)i)(bUicin) .. +';;,:.<,.(,, ,~ : ! :..:,, _;;, ,: ~:; i.,"'. C.~. INTEKNET INFORMATION SUPPLIERS K&y a&umptions ->: ,, '~, y,,:;-.~:,' i ,:,,:~ .~,,<,fi : ~, .i,' ,',!,, ~~ ;~ ;~-...T :.,. '? ,,.., ). L. ~",' i I ..j~., .~'. '.., '~, ::,;" :',:;:/i._: ,, Elcctriciry used in operaring rhe bows (servers of all kinds) :"lllt"TKC which arc rhc sou~ccs of lnrcrncr information or < 0.03 i Major dor-ram companies 72 ; Torxl "dur-cum" 17.500 ": (Now hard or "\VcY . Aswm ,O% of company invsnrury year-end 1998 of &r-corn xrvcrs can bi: mainframrfnrmr using a large numbrr of minis.) muI ,998 inventory nf mainframei Web sites 4 52 SUBTOTAL 4 124 of 160,000 yields 16,000 " . 1998 invenrory ofmainfiamcr grew by 12,000 (morr, probably majariv, used in n~ajnr srwrr applicacionr) . Assume .~wrage load of 250 k\V and 24x7 operarion"' . Assumr ~111 xrvcrs thar arc nor major dot-cam companies usins small servers (1 kW plus 0.5 kW pcriphcr315,especially data back-up) Asrume 70% all installed scwcrs lorzrcd in the U.S.; royal xrwr Univcrrc in 1998 of 5 millionl" 5 Saniv check: rhe vzult~ derived herr imply char approx. 12% of commercial building elccrriciry purchaws in 1998 were for compurcrs serving rhc ~nrerner. 120/oof roral U.S. commercial kWh use equals 1 I j billion k\V% NETWORK Elecrriciry used by the boxes required co aperare and roure data on rhl ct Routers on Inrerner 2 * Only caunr IWO majur eqqmenr categories: rouwrs and major &cum "swirches" . l'btal number U.S. mu~rs from Dxaqucst " * Assume xverage routrr at 1 kW and conrinuous operarim '*I . Toral for ~\\*a rou~cr caregorier equals fatal mu~crs insralled TOdatr: . Note: &ckgmund net supparr povided by local area ncrwarks (LXNs) wid, 112 million in LANs in mxker uring rouwrs (2nd orher rwirching and r&red hardwara) "- Allocnrc 40% of 25.000 tclcphone c~mral ofiicc "swircho" COdara rratlic (Dxquesr) * overage central oftice 500 kW 16 Routeri in LANs and WANs 8 Tclcphone ccnrral &crs 0.01 43 SUBTOTAL TOTAL 3 108 67 295 s iiOrl,P,,, LPPr, C,#* ,,,,, ( rlllll n,, ."l,r.>,.lll I A_,-c,j.w !c:/l. :,,, THE INTERhFT YE GINS WITH CO&L Inrerner-r&red hardware NOT COUNTED in above romls Tumber:&I&& on el&&i~ uie NOT coimced in '&hates ,2;f~:::;,:';: ,:& Data switches for neworks 1 million * Commrrcial buildings used m hoar rquipmcnr for Internet srrvicrs should lbaw overall building electric use allocared m rhe Inrerner . Information recbnology servicrs i" general ac'oL,nI for 8% of all U.S. commercial service revenue: assuming 30% of jr&o srwicrs are for rhe Inrerner, this would add 23 billion kWh co rhe coral. - Additional cooling, lighring or rclatcd space condirioning loads creared by rhe lnrerner equipmenr used in residences could also be counted as Inrrmrr-required kWh. * Shipmenr of 17 million porn -- porrslswirch ranges from 4 10 500 with max at low-end represenring pcrhapr 1 million swicchrs" m As pans are provided grearer processing power for ncrwork cfticienq electric USC will become significanr * Sun Microsysrems sold 4900 million worth of rhcir new $lmilliun+ superservrr in 1998 * Toral U.S. shipmenr of "miniil class of comparers ar 300,000 unirs/yP' * Analysis here used rhe same kWh for rnanufacruring ALL kinds of comparers which grearly undcrsratcs energy needed for super servers ils well as.mainfmmes and srorage sysrcmr (below) - 12,000 per year shipprd in U.S.." * Maiorim new mainframrs ~:oin~ into Inrerner server or &red uses -' * Elecrric& used IO manufacwre mainframes * Hardware m smre 81 back-up mounrains of dnra grnrrarcd by Inrernrr 2ccivicics (e-commerce, erc.) using mainframrs & superservers " . Enterprirrr storage sysrems salts have grown .10x in decade * ElectriciT urcd ru manufacture enxr rise srora e * 6 million PDAs today, 56 million in five years * Elzcrriciry required m manufacrurr PDAs used for Interner access * 2 million "info. Appliances" shipped in 1998 forecasr 7 million 1999, I 2 million 2000 (e.g., Weh'i'V, ser rap boxes) * Elecrriciry IO fabricaw and use appliuces including W&TV (3 million insralied rodav) and handhelds (3.7 million) InrclliQucsr * Fleariciy IO hbricars drives. prinrcrs. scanners, UPS . Fabric;w and operxc dcviccs for connccrinp mulriplc PCs ?z drvices -' . Share uf cell and PCS phones used for wirclcss Inrerncr access * Fd~ricnre nnd npm~cc 500.000 c:hk tndcms (I '114) A! rcl:lrcd c:d,Ic sysrcm devices - Allocarion of digirxl PCS ncnvork used for data traftic un Inrcrncr (e.g., wireless ~cccss IO e-mail. rrock markrr, etc.) * Fabricare and operarc wirclcss bxe snrion amplifiers, filrrrs. ccc. - Fabricarc cable, fiber optics. lrelnrcd hnrdwnrc 81 cquipmenr - Elecrriciry involved in hbricaring and upcraring (rypicnl UPS uses .,ho,ir i?J, of eiiern. runnorred) ' Fabricarc back-up sys~crnsfi~>r buildings, ISi's, nc. Super srwers 100,000 ,Mainframes 10,000 Enrrrprise srorage 10,000 PDAS 1"f"rmari"n appliances 0 million million Peripherals Home ncnunrkr 80 millio rnillklll lillions lillioni 50,000 TdCC"l7l C:hle ,nmdrnx Wireless Inrerner Bare axiom Fiber opric and coax cables & hardware UPS B&u,, gcnerarors lillions 100.000 i :o,:/, s:~r,ll, I.,. .~, ,,,, j d ,,.,, :~ ..,. I., THE INTERkET SE61NS WITH CD&L 31 Inrerner-related hardware NOT COUNTED in above to& ;:, ._ ~~.. .,_ ..~.~ C&i&n& on &&city use,,NOT c&ted in estimate+ ,"&;-,,,. 'j. ,.I,:;: . Commercial buildings usrd co house equipmenr for lnwrne~ services should have uvrrall building electric use &cared ru rhe Intrrnet - Informarion rechnology srrvices in general xcounc for P/o ofall U.S. commercial stxvice revenue: assuming 3llY0 of info services are for the Inrernet, rhis would add 23 billion kWh ro rhe cotal. * Additional cooling, lighting or r&red space condirioning loads creared by rhe lnrcrncr cquipmenr used in residences could also he counred as Inrerner-required kWh. * Shipment of 17 million porrs -- porrslswirch ranges from 4 IO 500 with mox ar low-end reprerenring prrhaps I million swirch& * Ar ports are provided grcarcr processing power for network efficiency, elecrric use will become significant * Sun Microsysrems sold 5900 million worrh of &eir new %Imillion+ s"perser\w'in 1998 - Total U.S. shipmenr of "mini" class of compurcrr ar 300,000 unirriy? . Analysis herr used thr same kWh for manufzcruring ALL kinds of compurers which greatly underrrnrss energy needed for super servers as well as,mainframes and storage systems (below) - 12,000 pcr ycar shipped in U.S.-" - Majority new mainframes going into Inrcmcr scrvcr or rclarcd uscs " * Elecrricin/ used IU manufarrure mainframes * Hardwarc IO smx & back-up mounnins of dnra generared by Inrerner aciivitics (c-commerce, ccc.) using m3inframer & superservrrs -' * Eorerprise srorage sysrems s&s have grown ,10x in drcadc * Electricity used IO manufacwrc enrerprise storage * 6 million PDAs today, 56 million in five years * Elccrriciry required 10 manufacrure PDAs used for Internet access * 2 million "info. Appliances" shipped in 1998 forecasr 7 million 1979, 12 rnilliol> 2000 (e.g., Weh?Y set rap boxer) * Elecrricity co fabricare and use appliances including WcKlY (3 rmillion insralled today) and handhelds (3.7 million) - InrrlliQuesr . Elccrriciry IO fabricarc driws, prinrrrs. sc~nncrs. UPS * Fnhr~icxc and opcrxc devices for connecrin~ ml~lriplc PCs & dcviccs * Sharr of cell II >d PCS phones urcd for wyir&ss lnrcrncr access - 1:;lbricarc :,nd <,,,m,L! 5011,M~nmblc modcins (IY'U) a rcl:llrd whlc sysrern drviccs * Allocarion of digirai PCS network used for dara rraffic on Inrerner (c-g.. wirclcss access ro e-mail, srock marker, ccc.) * Fnhricnre 2nd opcrare n~i&ss base station amplifirrs, filters, etc. . Fahricarr cable, fihcr npricr, rclnrrd hardware Rr cquipmcnt * Elccrriciry inwlwd in fabricaring and operaring (rypical UPS uscs 1 : +.:,.+. ,*;; !'i, .,~ _,:: . . :?',:.. ,~t~m/actlvrty-,\-~l~~~,~:~~~~~~~!,~~ ,? <,:; Ofkc space Dara swirches for ncnvorks 1 million Super ser"ers 100,000 Mainframes 10.000 Enrerprise srorage 10,oon PDAs 1"f"rmari"n appliances 0 rnilli"" million Peripherals Home ncworks T&corn Cnhlcz ma'lems Wireless lnrerner Base stations X0 milliol~ million lillionr lillinns 50.000 Fiber optic and coax cables & hardware UPS Bark-up generators '4illi""S I no.noo ahour 5% of enerby suppurrcd) * Fabricare hack-tin ws~~ms for huildinrs. ISPI. CK + Ly;,ll ,<,, :sqs, ,,,~.~ I,,,,,j h ,,,, 8, jr ,I ,,. II, r .,,.,,, ). / ,,.., ,,, ,.,,