Projecting Trends in
Severely Cost-Burdened
Renters: 2015–2025
By Allison Charette
Chris Herbert
Andrew Jakabovics
Ellen Tracy Marya
Daniel T. McCue

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Joint Center for Housing Studies greatly appreciates ongoing support for research on the
importance of rental housing from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation and
the JCHS Policy Advisory Board.
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The opinions expressed in Projecting Trends in Severely Cost-Burdened Renters: 2015–2025 do not
necessarily represent the views of Harvard University, the Policy Advisory Board of the Joint Center
for Housing Studies or the MacArthur Foundation.

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E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       2

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

SEPTEMBER 2015

CONTENTS

Introduction 4
Background 6
Projections of Severe Cost Burdens in the Rental Market 

11

Conclusion 16
Appendix A: Methodology 

17

Appendix B: Scenarios 

18

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       3

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION

A

t last measure in 2013, over one in four renters, or 11.2 million renter households, were
severely burdened by rents that took up over half their incomes. This total represented
a slight reduction from the record level of 11.3 million set in 2011, but remains
dramatically higher than the start of the last decade, having risen by more than 3 million since
2000. With substantial growth in renter households expected over the next decade and little sign
of a turnaround in the income and rent trends that produced these record levels of cost burdens,
there is little prospect for substantial improvement in these conditions over the coming decade.
Between 2015 and 2025, the Census Bureau estimates that the adult population in the U.S. will
rise by 24.6 million (10 percent) to a total of 272 million people.1 Bolstered by this expansion,
Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies ( JCHS) projects household growth will top 12.4
million during this period. Based on homeownership rates prevailing as of 2013, JCHS also
projects that the number of renter households will be boosted by approximately 4.2 million over
this period – which is very likely an underestimate of the expansion of renter households given
the continued decline in homeownership rates to the lowest level since 1967. Other research
institutions, such as the Urban Institute, project renter household growth over the next decade
to be closer to 6 million.
Building off these projections, this white paper projects how many households would be severely
rent burdened by 2025 given demographic trends and under differing assumptions about real
changes in income and rent levels. In a baseline scenario where both rents and incomes grow in line
with inflation (set at 2 percent), we find that demographic trends alone would raise the number of
severely burdened renter households by 11 percent from an estimated 11.8 million in 2015 to 13.1
million in 2025 (Figure 1). In addition to the baseline model, we also run four alternative scenarios
where income growth increasingly exceeds overall inflation and rents by 0.25 percentage point
increments. Only under the most optimistic of these scenarios, where household incomes outpace
rent growth by 1 percentage point annually over the next decade, do we project fewer severely
cost-burdened renter households than today. Even under that scenario, we only expect a decrease
of 169,000 households (1.4 percent), as income gains are largely offset by demographic trends.
While the number of severely cost-burdened households would fall slightly under this scenario,
it is unlikely that incomes will consistently outpace rent by such a large margin.
On the other hand, if current trends where rent gains outpace incomes continue, we find that
for each 0.25 percentage point gain in rents relative to incomes, the number of severely costburdened renters will increase by about 400,000. Under the worst-case scenario of real rent gains
of 1 percentage point higher than real income gains per year over the decade, the number of

severely cost-burdened renters would reach 14.8 million by 2025, an increase of 25 percent above
today’s levels.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       4

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

INTRODUCTION

Figure 1: Rent Burdens are Likely to Increase Under All But the
Most Optimistic Scenario
Notes: Severe burdens are
defined as housing costs of
more than 50% of household
income. Base case assumes 2%
annual growth in rents and
incomes in 2015–2025.
Lowest-burden scenario
increases annual income growth
rate to 3% while holding rent
growth at 2%. Highest-burden
scenario increases annual rent
growth rate to 3% while holding
income growth at 2%.

Severely Burdened Renter Households (Millions)

15.0
12.5
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
1990
Historical

2000

2005

Lowest-Burden Scenario

2010
Base Case

2015

Projected
2025

Highest-Burden Scenario

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF U.S. CENSUS BUREAU DECENNIAL CENSUS AND AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

The need for affordable housing is already overwhelming the capacity of federal, state and local
governments to supply assistance. At last measure, 11.2 million extremely low-income
households competed for 7.3 million units affordable to them – a 3.9 million unit shortfall. And
with 7.7 million unassisted very low-income renters with worst case housing needs in 2013 as
defined by U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), only just over a
quarter (26 percent) of eligible very low-income households received rental assistance.2
Meanwhile, the private sector is unable to supply new units at rents low enough to reach lowincome renters. Indeed, as of 2013, the median rent of a newly constructed unit of $1,290 was
equal to about half the median renter’s monthly household income, underscoring the urgent need
for policy makers to consider enhanced levels of support for rental housing particularly for lowestincome households but across a range of income levels.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       5

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

BACKGROUND

BACKGROUND

A

t the time of the decennial census in 2000, one in five renters were severely cost burdened,
paying more than half of their gross income for rent and utilities (Figure 2). Meanwhile,
another 18 percent faced moderate cost burdens, spending between 30 and 50 percent of
their income on housing costs, exceeding the widely accepted standard that housing should not
command more than 30 percent of a household budget.3 This represented a slight improvement
over the shares burdened in 1990 as income gains outpaced growth in rents. But in the years
following 2000, gains in typical monthly rental costs exceeded the overall inflation rate, while
median income among renters fell further and further behind (Figure 3). As a result, the share of
renter households facing severe cost burdens grew dramatically, reaching a new record high of 28
percent in 2011 before edging down to 26.5 percent in 2013. Adding in those with moderate
burdens, just under half of all renters were cost burdened in 2013. These rates are substantially
higher than a decade ago and roughly twice what they were in 1960.
At the same time that the share of renters facing cost burdens was rising, so too was the share of
households opting to rent. Over the last decade, the share of renter households in the United States
has increased significantly as homeownership rates have fallen from a high of 69.2 percent in the
second quarter of 2004 to 63.4 percent in the second quarter of 2015, the lowest level since 1967.
We are now seeing more renters than at any other time in U.S. history.
Figure 2: Renter Cost Burdens Spread at an Unprecedented Pace
in the 2000s
Shares of Cost-Burdened Renter Households (Percent)

Notes: Moderate (severe)
burdens are defined as housing
costs of 30–50% (more than
50%) of household income.
Households with zero or
negative income are assumed
to be severely burdened, while
renters not paying cash rent are
assumed to be unburdened.

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960

1970

1980
1990
2000
Severe
Moderate

2010

2013

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF U.S. CENSUS BUREAU DECENNIAL CENSUS AND AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       6

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

BACKGROUND

Figure 3: A Key Driver of Worsening Affordability is Falling Incomes
Among Renters
Percent Change in Real Median Value Since 2001

Notes: Values are adjusted for
inflation by the CPI-U for All
Items. Rent data exclude renters
paying no cash rent.

10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Renter Income

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Renter Housing Costs

JCHS TABULATIONS OF U.S. CENSUS BUREAU AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

There are a number of factors contributing to the high rates of renting. Former homeowners who
lost their homes to foreclosure are still largely out of the ownership market, and tight lending
standards have made it difficult for those with anything but stellar credit to buy a home. Economic
uncertainty has made it attractive for many households to stay as renters, unwilling to take on the
financial risks of ownership or to be locked into a specific home in a specific place. The combined
effect of the rapid rise in both cost-burdened rates and the share of households renting resulted in a
nearly 60 percent rise in the number of severely cost-burdened renters from 7 million in 2000 to
11.2 million in 2013, while those with moderate burdens rose from 6.6 to 9.6 million.
Not surprisingly, housing affordability problems are most severe for the lowest-income households.
Among very low – income renters (defined as incomes up to 50 percent of their area median), HUD
finds that 7.7 million households in 2013 were either living in substandard housing and/or paying
more than half their monthly income in rent.4 While the number of these households with
worst-case housing needs has fallen from its 2011 historic-high of 8.5 million households, the
number remains extremely high.
While high rents are often portrayed as a big city problem – notably in places like New York City,

Los Angeles and San Francisco – significant numbers of renters are cost burdened in all states
across the country. According to the JCHS, the share of renters at least moderately burdened
(paying more than 30 percent of income on rent) is 40 percent or higher in all but three states as of
2013.5 More than half of all renters in nine states are at least moderately burdened by rental costs.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       7

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

BACKGROUND

A similar analysis conducted by Enterprise Community Partners found that the share of severely
cost-burdened renters exceeded 20 percent of renter households in all but three states, with one
in four renters severely cost burdened across the U.S. as a whole. Analysis by the National Low
Income Housing Coalition has also found that there is no state in the U.S. where a minimum-wage
worker working full time can afford a one-bedroom apartment at the fair market rent.6
However, while a large majority of lowest-income renters are cost burdened in markets across the
country, high-cost markets are marked by more significant cost burden challenges among moderateincome renters. In high-cost metro areas, two-thirds of renters earning $30,000–45,000 and just
under half of those earning $45,000–75,000 had disproportionately high housing costs.
While reports on the state of the economy have become more optimistic in recent years, the
number of renters with severe cost burdens is not expected to slow. Even if trends in incomes and
rents turn more favorable, a variety of demographic forces will exert continued upward pressure on
the number of rent-burdened households. Rapid growth of the minority population is one key
factor, driven by past and predicted high levels of immigration. By 2050, the U.S. is expected to have
a majority-minority population, meaning a greater share of the population will be non-white racial
and ethnic minorities.7 The Hispanic population in particular is projected to continue its fast
growth, reaching 106 million (or doubling) by 2050.8
With that said, racial and ethnic minority households are disproportionately burdened by housing
costs, regardless of tenure. According to the Center for Housing Policy’s Housing Landscape 2015,
working households that are headed by non-white individuals have a significantly higher rate of
severe housing cost burden than white-headed households.9 According to this analysis, one-quarter
of both African-American and Hispanic households were severely housing-cost burdened in 2013,
compared to less than 20 percent of white households.
Millennials are also expected to continue experiencing rent burdens as they age. Having entered the
labor market during and following the Great Recession, those in the millennial generation have
received lower wages and experienced higher rates of unemployment and underemployment than
their older counterparts at this point in their lives.10 As a result, millennials have less wealth
accumulated, have delayed forming new households, and are less likely to become owners at the
age that older generations had previously. In combination, we are likely to see additional household
formation by millennials over the next decade and expect a relatively higher share to remain renters
during that period.
However, more than any other generation or racial group, the greatest growth will be among older
people. According to the U.S. Census’s 2014 National Population Projections, the population aged 65
and older is expected to jump to 74 million by 2030, an increase of 33 million in just two decades.11

Today, 30 percent of elderly renters are paying more than half their incomes on housing. While all
older adults face challenges as they age, those who are low-income renters face the greatest difficulties,

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       8

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

BACKGROUND

as they often have little wealth or savings when they retire. The typical homeowner aged 65 and over
has enough wealth to cover nursing home costs for 42 months and enough non-housing wealth to last
15 months.12 Alternatively, the median older renter cannot afford even one month in a nursing home.
As the population of older people grows, so will the number of rent-burdened older households,
including many in need of housing with supportive services.
We should also not overlook the Gen Xers and younger baby boomers who were deeply impacted
by the Great Recession. While millennials may have delayed household formation and home
purchasing, they still have many years to potentially make up for their late start or early setbacks.
Not so with these two age groups who had already established their households when the recession
and its job losses hit. They were likely to have been homeowners who may have gone through
foreclosure and have fewer working years to get back on track. Overall, they haven’t benefited as
much from the recovery; households 45–64 saw median incomes drop by 7 percent between 2010
and 2013, according to the Federal Reserve Board’s most recent Survey of Consumer Finances.13
While demographics will exert a significant influence on trends in rent-burdened households over
the coming decade, as the experience since the start of this century has demonstrated, future
housing affordability will largely be driven by gains or losses in household incomes relative to rental
costs. Since 1982, with the exception of a five-year period in the late 1990s, rent growth has
consistently outpaced inflation. As noted above, the gap between inflation and rents grew wider in
the years following the Great Recession, which contributed to significant renter burdens. If inflation
rates continue at today’s rates, renter cost burdens will only continue to rise. Over the 30-year
period 1982–2012, rent increases outpaced inflation (as measured by the consumer price index for
all urban consumers) at an average annual rate of 0.5 percent. More recently, between 2002 and
2012, rent outpaced inflation at a more moderate 0.22 percent annually, with sharp increases during
the first half of the period offset by nearly flat growth in the second half.
In order to make up for the substantial ground lost on rental affordability since 2000 and to counter
the demographic forces that will expand the ranks of renters most likely to face affordability
challenges, the next decade will need to be marked by substantial gains in incomes relative to rents.
Whether such a scenario is likely to unfold is difficult to predict. With the unemployment rate
having fallen below 6 percent, there may be growing pressure on wages that could help boost
household incomes in coming years. The growing movement for increase in the minimum wage
may also raise incomes for lower-skilled workers. But even if these gains do materialize, there is still
the question of whether they will outpace growth in rents.
With renter household growth at record levels, new construction of rental housing has expanded
rapidly – although not enough to keep pace with growing demand. Between 2005 and the end of
2014, only 2.2 million new units intended as rentals were completed. That’s the lowest 10-year
production rate in records dating back to 1974, occurring at a time when rental demand is

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       9

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

BACKGROUND

historically high – surging by 7.9 million renters. As a result, vacancy rates have fallen to their
lowest level in two decades, and rents have soared. However, multifamily construction starts are
now at their highest level since the 1980s, so additional supply is on the way. But it remains an
open question whether the growth will be sufficient to slow rent growth below gains in
household incomes.
While the future course of incomes and rents is uncertain, we can examine what trends in rent
burdens will be under different assumptions about relative gains in incomes and rents over the
coming decade to assess the range of outcomes that may come to pass. The following section
presents a range of scenarios for the next decade and implications for trends in rental cost burdens.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       10

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS
IN THE RENTAL MARKET

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS IN THE RENTAL MARKET

A

detailed description of the methodology used to project cost-burdened renters is
presented in the Methodology appendix. Succinctly, the baseline projections assume that
the share of renters with severe cost burdens by age, race/ethnicity and household type
remain constant at their 2013 levels. Changes in the number of severely cost-burdened renters
between 2015 and 2025 are estimated by applying these cost-burdened shares to the JCHS’s
projections of households by age, race/ethnicity and household type over this period. To assess how
relative changes in real incomes and rents would affect trends in cost burdens, we use data on
individual renter households from the American Community Survey (ACS) in 2013 and inflate
actual incomes and housing costs by different inflation factors and then recalculate the share of
renters that are severely cost burdened after a decade of change in incomes and rents. These revised
shares of cost-burdened households are then applied to the household projections to estimate
changes in cost-burdened renters.
BASELINE SCENARIO

Our baseline scenario assumes no real growth in incomes or rents, or in other words that both
incomes and rent levels grow at the expected level of inflation, which we take to be 2 percent,
following the Federal Reserve’s most recent target inflation rate. In essence, this scenario assumes no
change in the income distribution or rent levels for each demographic category and that severe
renter burden rates for each combination of age, race/ethnicity and household type will remain
essentially at 2013 levels between 2015 and 2025. Thus, the only factor driving changes in the
number of rent-burdened households is the demographically driven growth (or decline) in the types
of households most likely to be cost burdened. Under this model, the number of severely burdened
renter households would increase by 11 percent from 11.8 million in 2015 to 13.1 million in 2025.
Of these households, a significant share of the burden would be among older adults and millennials.
The results point to the fact that, all else equal, the rapid increase in both younger and older
households over the coming decade will put upward pressure on the number of cost-burdened
renters as both of these age groups face higher than average likelihood of being burdened.
Looking closer into the base case scenario, the number of severely burdened households aged 65-74
as well as those aged 75 and older are projected to rise by 42 percent and 39 percent respectively.
These numbers are not surprising given the overall increase in the nation’s aging population,
although they do illustrate a critical need for elderly housing and services that help individuals age
in place. While less dramatic than the increase among older people, the number of severely
burdened young adults aged 25-34 and 35-44, mostly millennials (who will be aged 20-39 in 2025),
would in combination jump by nearly 12 percent between 2015 and 2025.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       11

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS
IN THE RENTAL MARKET

Across household types, the largest percent growth is expected to be in the number of severely
burdened married couples without children, which are projected to increase by 17.6 percent. This
growth is mostly attributable to the baby boomer – driven growth in older couples whose children
have grown up and moved out. Meanwhile, millennial-driven growth in the number of younger
adults will drive the number of married couples with children up by a projected 12.6 percent. These
numbers indicate that even households with the potential to earn two incomes likely contribute to
increases in renter burdens over the next decade.
Figure 4: Summary of Scenarios for Projected Change in Number of Severely Burdened Households
Severely Burdened
Renter Households

Change
2015-25

(in millions)

(# in millions)

Change
2015-25 (%)

2015

11.8

Baseline scenario (annual rent growth of 2.00%;
annual income growth of 2.00%)

13.1

1.3

11%

Annual rent growth of 2.25%; annual income growth
of 2.00%

13.5

1.7

14%

Annual rent growth of 2.50%; annual income growth
of 2.00%

13.9

2.1

18%

Annual rent growth of 2.75%; annual income growth
of 2.00%

14.3

2.5

22%

Annual rent growth of 3.00%; annual income growth
of 2.00%

14.8

3.0

25%

Annual rent growth of 2.00%; annual income growth
of 2.25%

12.7

0.9

8%

Annual rent growth of 2.00%; annual income growth
of 2.50%

12.3

0.5

5%

Annual rent growth of 2.00%; annual income growth
of 2.75%

12.0

0.2

2%

Annual rent growth of 2.00%; annual income growth
of 3.00%

11.6

-0.2

-1%

Rent growth outpaces income growth

Income growth outpaces rent growth

Single-person households would also grow by a sharp 12 percent and perhaps more importantly
would account for fully 47 percent of the total share of newly burdened households by 2025 in the
base case scenario. As with the growth in married couples without children, this large growth in
severely cost-burdened single-person households would be driven by the projected growth in the
number of older adults, who with age are more likely to live alone. Older women in particular are
increasingly likely to live alone and face severe cost burdens. However, due to the size of their
generation as well as delays in marriage and household formation, many millennials are also still
expected to be single and renting by 2025 and therefore are also expected to contribute to the
growth in single-person households with severe burdens.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       12

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS
IN THE RENTAL MARKET

More than any other racial or ethnic group, Hispanic households are projected to have the largest
increases in severe renter burdens in the next decade under the base case scenario. Overall, the
number of severely burdened Hispanic households is expected to increase by 27 percent, followed
by Asians and other non-black minorities expected to grow by 23 percent, while the number of
severely burdened non-Hispanic blacks would increase by nearly 11 percent. Growth in severe
burdens among non-Hispanic whites, on the other hand, would grow by just 0.5 percent in this
scenario, but in terms of absolute numbers, white households would still represent the greatest
number of severely burdened renters at 5.2 million.
SCENARIOS: RENTS OUTPACE INCOMES

We ran four scenarios in which rent increases will outpace income growth over the next decade by
0.25 percentage point increments. We believe these scenarios to be extremely plausible, given that
rents have consistently outpaced incomes over the last 15 years. As expected, these scenarios result
in significant increases in the number of severely cost-burdened renter households by 2025 over
the baseline.
With every additional 0.25 percentage point increase in rent growth above gains in income,
approximately 400,000 more renters will become severely cost burdened relative to the base case
scenario. For example, if annual rent growth were to outpace annual income growth by 0.25 percent
over the next 10 years, the total number of burdened households would rise by 1.7 million to 13.5
million renters, compared to a gain of 1.3 million in the base case. In our most extreme scenario
with rents outpacing incomes by 1 percent annually, the total number of severely burdened renting
households would rise by 3 million, an increase of 25.4 percent.
When broken out by age, race/ethnicity and household type, we find that the numbers of severely
burdened households increase across all categories. However, we also see that the numbers
become more evenly distributed between categories. For example, severely cost-burdened
Hispanic households continue to lead other racial groups in these four scenarios, but they make
up a smaller share of total change compared to the baseline scenario, primarily due to increases
in burdened white families.
Under the baseline scenario, white households make up only 2 percent of the total growth in
severely burdened renters. However, when annual rent growth exceeds annual income growth in
these projections, the white share of the gains in households experiencing severe cost burdens
jumps from 12 to 25 percent under this range of scenarios. Significantly more minority households
experience cost burdens under all scenarios, but white households experience the worst impacts
when rent growth outpaces income growth. This increase in burdened white households is
indicative of the growing elderly population experiencing severe burdens.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       13

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS
IN THE RENTAL MARKET

Consistent with the baseline scenario, the elderly population sees the greatest increases in severely
burdened renters compared to other age groups in these scenarios. When rent growth exceeds
income growth by 0.25 percent, there is a 46.7 percent rise in burdened households ages 65–74 and
a 42.6 percent rise ages 75 and up. Those percentages only continue to rise as rent growth increases.
This is most likely due to a heavy reliance on fixed incomes among this population, and if rents
significantly outpace Social Security cost of living adjustments over time, the incidence of severe
rent burdens will rise dramatically.
Also consistent with the baseline scenario is the rising rent burdens among aging millennials
that is visible in the growth in burdens in the 25–34- and 35–44-year-old age groups. These data
demonstrate that millennial renter burdens will worsen significantly if rent growth continues to
outpace their incomes.
The groups experiencing the most severe renter burdens within household type are similar to the
baseline scenario. Married couples without children and those with children continue to have the
greatest increases in severely burdened households, compared to other household types. And single
people continue to have the greatest number of total burdened households, which is primarily
driven by significant burdens among elderly people and aging millennials living alone.
SCENARIOS: INCOMES OUTPACE RENTS

These four scenarios assume that income growth will outpace rent growth by 0.25 percentage point
increments over the next decade. While we do not expect income to outpace rent over this period,
given that rents have grown consistently faster than incomes since the late 1990s, such
circumstances are possible, and we wanted to test the sensitivity of the model to this outcome.
Under three of these four scenarios, we find that the number of severely burdened renters would
still continue to rise over the next decade, until income growth exceeds rent growth by 1 percentage
point. In that case, the number of severely rent-burdened households would drop by 169,000
households, or 1.4 percent. While this scenario is unlikely given current income and rent trends, it is
critical that we identify at what income and rent levels the number of burdened households will
begin to fall. Overall in the scenarios where incomes outpace rents, growth in the number of
severely cost-burdened renters declines by about 350,000 relative to the base case scenario with each
incremental 0.25 percent increase in income growth over rent growth.
While these scenarios would result in fewer severely burdened renters overall than the baseline
scenario, there would still be a considerable increase in the number of severely burdened elderly
people. Consistent with the baseline scenario, households aged 65-74 and 75 and older would see
the largest increases of any age group, but the magnitude would be significantly smaller compared
to the base case scenario.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       14

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

PROJECTIONS OF SEVERE COST BURDENS
IN THE RENTAL MARKET

Due to the sheer size of the millennial generation, there would also be an increase in the number of
renters age 35-44 with burdens under these higher income growth scenarios, though to a much
lesser extent than under the baseline scenario. Conversely, the relatively smaller size of the Gen Xers
relative to baby boomers will lead to fewer rent-burdened households age 45-54 if incomes do
outpace rents in the decade ahead.
The findings from these scenarios also illustrate the fact that married couples without children,
single people and single parents with non-partner adults will see the largest percentage increases
in renters with burdens, compared to other household types.
Consistent with the baseline is the fact that single people with severe cost burdens will make up the
greatest share of newly burdened households by household type. Again, this significant share reflects
the disproportionate burden increases among older and millennial households.
When broken down by race/ethnicity, the shares of households burdened by rent costs look similar
to the baseline scenario, except for white households. Under these scenarios, the number of white
households experiencing severe renter burdens would actually drop between 2015 and 2025. This
finding demonstrates that there are far more white households that are closer to escaping severe
renter burdens than other races. In this scenario, Hispanic households would still see the greatest
increases (largely due to overall growth), followed by Asian /other and black households.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       15

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

CONCLUSION

CONCLUSION
Overall, our analysis projects a fairly bleak picture of severe renter burdens across the U.S. for the
coming decade. Under nearly all of the scenarios performed, we found that the renter affordability
crisis will continue to worsen without intervention. According to our projections, annual income
growth would need to exceed annual rent growth by 1 percent in order to reduce the number of
severely burdened renters in 10 years. Importantly, that decline would have a net impact on fewer
than 200,000 households, only because continued increases in burdens among minorities would be
offset by declines among whites. Under the more likely scenario that rents will continue to outpace
incomes, the number of severely rent-burdened households would increase by a range of 1.7 – 3
million, depending on the magnitude.
Given these findings, it is critical for policymakers at all levels of government to prioritize the
preservation and development of affordable rental housing. Even if the economy continues its slow
recovery and income growth improves, there are simply not enough quality, affordable rental units
to house the millions of households paying over half their income in rental costs.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       16

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX A

APPENDIX A: METHODOLOGY

BASELINE PROJECTION OF RENTER HOUSEHOLDS

The underlying renter household counts used in this study as the basis for projecting counts
of severely cost-burdened renters are from the 2013 JCHS household projections by tenure.14
The JCHS tenure projections provide counts of renter households by 5-year age group, race/
ethnicity and household type, and were derived by holding current homeownership rates
constant within each of these categories and applying them to the baseline household projection.
The homeownership rates used are from Current Population Surveys and are averages from the two
most recent years, 2012 and 2013, to reduce volatility.
PROJECTING BURDENED RENTERS - BASE CASE

For the base case projection of severely cost-burdened renters, we apply constant severe cost-burden
rates by 5-year age, race/ethnicity and household type to the renter household projection. The rates
are calculated using household-level data for gross rents and incomes from the 2013 American
Community Survey, and are the share of renter households whose monthly housing costs for rents
and residential utilities exceed 50 percent of their total household income. Households with zero or
negative incomes are assumed to be severely burdened, while renters reporting “no cash rent” are
assumed to be unburdened.
SCENARIOS

Whereas the base case holds current cost-burden rates constant, the alternative scenarios apply
different cost burden rates that result from different assumptions about what growth in rents and
incomes will be over the next 10 years. These alternative burden rates are recalculated for each of our
demographic groupings after making across-the-board adjustments to incomes and rents at the
household level in the 2013 ACS to proxy 10 years of growth at the annual rates of growth for that
scenario. For example, in the scenario where incomes increase 2 percent per year for 10 years and
rents increase 3 percent, we first compound a 2 percent annual income growth rate for 10 years to
get an income multiplier of 21.9 percent and then compound a 3 percent annual rent growth rate
for 10 years to get a rent multiplier of 34.39 percent. Then, for each renter household we inflate
2013 ACS household incomes by 21.9 percent and rents by 34.39 percent to obtain their projected
future income and rent levels. Next, having inflated both rents and incomes of all renter households
to their projected future levels, we recalculate the resulting severe cost-burden rates for each 5-year
age, race/ethnicity and household type. The last step is then to apply those new cost-burden rates
obtained for each of our demographic groups to the projected future renter household counts for
each group and then sum up to obtain the total projected number of severely cost-burdened renters.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       17

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED BASELINE RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Baseline Scenario 1: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.00% and annual income growth of 2.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

13,070,918

1,293,040

11.0%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,890,213

-65,879

-3.4%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,093,308

266,945

9.4%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,331,262

301,995

14.9%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,713,971

-25,332

-1.5%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,631,065

121,013

8.0%

65 – 74

829,700

1,179,332

349,632

42.1%

75+

887,103

1,231,767

344,664

38.9%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,236,343

26,070

0.5%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,277,794

319,697

10.8%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,321,847

712,819

27.3%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,234,933

234,452

23.4%

Married without
Children

729,127

857,159

128,032

17.6%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,327,851

148,934

12.6%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

324,431

8,594

2.7%

Partnered with Children

372,440

403,936

31,496

8.5%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,216,965

192,012

9.5%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

530,171

54,442

11.4%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,679,257

607,177

12.0%

Other

1,608,796

1,731,150

122,354

7.6%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.00% per year and rents grow at 2.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 21.90%,
and rent inflation is 21.90%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       18

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 2: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.25% and annual income growth of 2.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

13,477,620

1,699,742

14.4%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,934,320

-21,772

-1.1%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,195,679

369,316

13.1%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,411,541

382,274

18.8%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,768,501

29,198

1.7%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,684,744

174,692

11.6%

65 – 74

829,700

1,217,438

387,738

46.7%

75+

887,103

1,265,397

378,294

42.6%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,406,950

196,677

3.8%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,366,297

408,200

13.8%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,433,455

824,427

31.6%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,270,918

270,437

27.0%

Married without
Children

729,127

895,969

166,842

22.9%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,393,482

214,565

18.2%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

337,722

21,885

6.9%

Partnered with Children

372,440

418,329

45,889

12.3%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,270,237

245,284

12.1%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

550,750

75,021

15.8%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,829,339

757,259

14.9%

Other

1,608,796

1,781,791

172,995

10.8%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.00% per year and rents grow at 2.25% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 21.90%,
and rent inflation is 24.92%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       19

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 3: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.50% and annual income growth of 2.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

13,897,256

2,119,377

18.0%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,985,512

29,420

1.5%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,291,730

465,367

16.5%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,490,543

461,276

22.7%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,827,493

88,190

5.1%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,735,769

225,717

14.9%

65 – 74

829,700

1,258,478

428,778

51.7%

75+

887,103

1,307,731

420,628

47.4%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,572,476

362,203

7.0%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,464,290

506,193

17.1%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,554,147

945,119

36.2%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,306,342

305,861

30.6%

Married without
Children

729,127

933,423

204,296

28.0%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,454,947

276,030

23.4%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

352,447

36,610

11.6%

Partnered with Children

372,440

434,383

61,943

16.6%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,327,715

302,762

15.0%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

569,965

94,236

19.8%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,987,599

915,519

18.1%

Other

1,608,796

1,836,776

227,980

14.2%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.00% per year and rents grow at 2.50% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 21.90%,
and rent inflation is 28.01%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       20

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 4: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.75% and annual income growth of 2.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

14,323,471

2,545,593

21.6%

15 – 24

1,956,092

2,025,639

69,547

3.6%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,404,997

578,634

20.5%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,575,938

546,671

26.9%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,886,109

146,806

8.4%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,784,393

274,341

18.2%

65 – 74

829,700

1,297,769

468,069

56.4%

75+

887,103

1,348,626

461,523

52.0%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,762,388

552,115

10.6%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,556,017

597,920

20.2%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,663,847

1,054,819

40.4%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,341,219

340,738

34.1%

Married without
Children

729,127

974,165

245,038

33.6%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,523,028

344,111

29.2%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

366,904

51,067

16.2%

Partnered with Children

372,440

449,628

77,188

20.7%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,383,739

358,786

17.7%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

589,683

113,954

24.0%

Single Person

5,072,080

6,146,460

1,074,380

21.2%

Other

1,608,796

1,889,865

281,069

17.5%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.00% per year and rents grow at 2.75% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 21.90%,
and rent inflation is 31.17%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       21

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 5: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 3.00% and annual income growth of 2.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

14,766,055

2,988,176

25.4%

15 – 24

1,956,092

2,073,537

117,445

6.0%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,522,082

695,719

24.6%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,655,806

626,539

30.9%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,945,017

205,714

11.8%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,835,457

325,405

21.5%

65 – 74

829,700

1,343,740

514,040

62.0%

75+

887,103

1,390,414

503,311

56.7%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,949,395

739,122

14.2%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,653,175

695,078

23.5%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,785,069

1,176,041

45.1%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,378,416

377,935

37.8%

Married without
Children

729,127

1,016,022

286,895

39.3%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,591,937

413,020

35.0%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

386,314

70,477

22.3%

Partnered with Children

372,440

470,353

97,913

26.3%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,439,711

414,758

20.5%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

608,038

132,309

27.8%

Single Person

5,072,080

6,304,932

1,232,852

24.3%

Other

1,608,796

1,948,748

339,952

21.1%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.00% per year and rents grow at 3.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 21.90%,
and rent inflation is 34.39%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       22

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 6: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.00% and annual income growth of 2.25%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

12,697,122

919,243

7.8%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,850,250

-105,842

-5.4%

25 – 34

2,826,363

3,000,208

173,845

6.2%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,265,196

235,929

11.6%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,666,933

-72,370

-4.2%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,582,951

72,899

4.8%

65 – 74

829,700

1,140,082

310,382

37.4%

75+

887,103

1,191,501

304,398

34.3%

White, NH

5,210,273

5,068,291

-141,982

-2.7%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,197,333

239,236

8.1%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,223,091

614,063

23.5%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,208,406

207,925

20.8%

Married without
Children

729,127

822,881

93,754

12.9%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,275,490

96,573

8.2%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

311,408

-4,429

-1.4%

Partnered with Children

372,440

386,190

13,750

3.7%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,171,871

146,918

7.3%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

516,650

40,921

8.6%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,534,966

462,886

9.1%

Other

1,608,796

1,677,665

68,869

4.3%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.25% per year and rents grow at 2.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 24.92%,
and rent inflation is 21.90%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       23

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 7: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.00% and annual income growth of 2.50%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

12,308,509

530,631

4.5%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,808,498

-147,594

-7.5%

25 – 34

2,826,363

2,905,869

79,506

2.8%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,184,174

154,907

7.6%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,619,032

-120,271

-6.9%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,536,130

26,078

1.7%

65 – 74

829,700

1,098,218

268,518

32.4%

75+

887,103

1,156,589

269,486

30.4%

White, NH

5,210,273

4,908,370

-301,903

-5.8%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,114,928

156,831

5.3%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,111,415

502,387

19.3%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,173,796

173,315

17.3%

Married without
Children

729,127

786,860

57,733

7.9%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,215,177

36,260

3.1%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

297,413

-18,424

-5.8%

Partnered with Children

372,440

368,768

-3,672

-1.0%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,124,577

99,624

4.9%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

503,106

27,377

5.8%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,388,808

316,728

6.2%

Other

1,608,796

1,623,801

15,005

0.9%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.50% per year and rents grow at 2.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 28.01%,
and rent inflation is 21.90%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       24

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 8: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.00% and annual income growth of 2.75%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

11,956,000

178,121

1.5%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,769,239

-186,853

-9.6%

25 – 34

2,826,363

2,825,641

-722

0.0%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,116,468

87,201

4.3%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,571,316

-167,987

-9.7%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,487,235

-22,817

-1.5%

65 – 74

829,700

1,063,652

233,952

28.2%

75+

887,103

1,122,448

235,345

26.5%

White, NH

5,210,273

4,753,067

-457,206

-8.8%

Black, NH

2,958,097

3,038,862

80,765

2.7%

Hispanic

2,609,028

3,015,362

406,334

15.6%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,148,708

148,227

14.8%

Married without
Children

729,127

751,540

22,413

3.1%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,168,174

-10,743

-0.9%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

285,160

-30,677

-9.7%

Partnered with Children

372,440

355,255

-17,185

-4.6%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,076,639

51,686

2.6%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

488,648

12,919

2.7%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,250,634

178,554

3.5%

Other

1,608,796

1,579,951

-28,845

-1.8%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 2.75% per year and rents grow at 2.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 31.17%,
and rent inflation is 21.90%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       25

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

APPENDIX B

APPENDIX B: SCENARIOS
PROJECTED RENTER SEVERE COST BURDENS, MIDDLE-SERIES
Scenario 9: Assuming 2015-2025 annual rent growth of 2.00% and annual income growth of 3.00%

2015

2025

Change 2015-25 (#)

Change 2015-25 (%)

Total
All Renter Households

11,777,878

11,608,580

-169,299

-1.4%

15 – 24

1,956,092

1,737,246

-218,846

-11.2%

25 – 34

2,826,363

2,736,726

-89,637

-3.2%

35 – 44

2,029,267

2,041,981

12,714

0.6%

45 – 54

1,739,303

1,527,959

-211,344

-12.2%

55 – 64

1,510,052

1,452,593

-57,459

-3.8%

65 – 74

829,700

1,022,938

193,238

23.3%

75+

887,103

1,089,136

202,033

22.8%

White, NH

5,210,273

4,605,910

-604,363

-11.6%

Black, NH

2,958,097

2,962,628

4,531

0.2%

Hispanic

2,609,028

2,918,378

309,350

11.9%

Asian/Other

1,000,481

1,121,664

121,183

12.1%

Married without
Children

729,127

721,943

-7,184

-1.0%

Married with Children

1,178,917

1,120,590

-58,327

-4.9%

Partnered without
Children

315,837

274,827

-41,010

-13.0%

Partnered with Children

372,440

341,495

-30,945

-8.3%

Single Parent without
Other Adults

2,024,953

2,022,609

-2,344

-0.1%

Single Parent with Other 475,729
Non-Partner Adults

467,751

-7,978

-1.7%

Single Person

5,072,080

5,122,383

50,303

1.0%

Other

1,608,796

1,536,981

-71,815

-4.5%

Age

Race/Ethnicity

Household Type

SOURCE: JCHS TABULATIONS OF 2013 JCHS MIDDLE-SERIES HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS AND U.S. CENSUS BUREAU, 2013 AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY.

Note: Severe cost burden rates for 2025 differ from 2015 and are recalculated after projecting 10 years of differential growth in rents
and incomes, where incomes grow at 3.00% per year and rents grow at 2.00% per year. After 10 years, total income inflation is 34.39%,
and rent inflation is 21.90%.

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       26

 PROJECTING TRENDS IN SEVERELY COST-BURDENED RENTERS: 2015 – 2025

REFERENCES

1.  United States Census Bureau. 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/
national/2014/summarytables.html
2.  Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The State of the Nation’s Housing 2015. http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/state_
nations_housing
3.  Pelletiere, D. Getting to the Heart of Housing’s Fundamental Question: How Much Can a Family Afford? A Primer on Housing Affordability
Standards in U.S. Housing Policy. Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1132551 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1132551
4.  Steffen, B., et al. Worst Case Housing Needs: 2015 Report to Congress. Washington, DC: HUD (2015). http://www.huduser.org/portal/
publications/affhsg/wc_HsgNeeds15.html
5.  Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. The State of the Nation’s Housing 2015. http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/state_
nations_housing
6.  National Low Income Housing Coalition. Out of Reach 2015. http://nlihc.org/oor
7.  Teixeria, R., et al. States of Change: The Demographic Evolution of the American Electorate, 1974-2060. Center for American Progress. 2015.
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/report/2015/02/24/107261/states-of-change/
8.  Krogstad, J.M. With Fewer New Arrivals, Census Lowers Hispanic Population Projections. Pew Research Center. 2014. http://www.pewresearch.
org/fact-tank/2014/12/16/with-fewer-new-arrivals-census-lowers-hispanic-population-projections-2/
9.  Ault, M., et al. Housing Landscape 2015. Center for Housing Policy. 2015. http://www.nhc.org/#!2015-housing-landscape/d9ata
10. Drake, B. 6 New Findings About Millennials. Pew Research Center. 2014. http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/03/07/6-new-findingsabout-millennials/
11. United States Census Bureau. 2014 National Population Projections: Summary Tables. http://www.census.gov/population/projections/data/
national/2014/summarytables.html
12. Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. Housing America’s Older Adults—Meeting the Needs of an Aging Population. 2014.
http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research/housing_americas_older_adults
13. Bricker, J., et al. Federal Reserve Bulletin: Changes in US Family Finances from 2010 to 2013: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances.
Washington, DC: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2014). http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2014/pdf/scf14.pdf
14. For more on the JCHS 2013 household and tenure projections, see McCue (2014) Baseline Household Projections for the Next Decade and
Beyond. http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/jchs.harvard.edu/files/w14-1_mccue_0.pdf

E N T E R P R I S E C O M M U N I T Y PA R T N E R S , I N C .   J O I N T C E N T E R F O R H O U S I N G S T U D I E S       27

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