M850 earning; is Cross Jr Gmen ?liaziehurst [Is Taylor :13 Wilson (Is Wood A?s Tsirhas His 322 lilo Document 1 For Official Use Only Ref: 314/3074 Routine/Low Complexity DEPARTMENT OF THE MINISTER AND (CABINET To: Prime Minister (for decision) ENll?ll?ElD) CONVENTION ON CLHMAEE CHANGE TASKEORCE TERMS OF REFERENCE Recommendations that you: 1. Agree to the amended terms of reference for the taskforoe (Attachmant A) and sign the letters to Ministers outlining the amended terms (Attachment 1; and Agreed/Not Agreed 322 TONY ABBOTT Date: Comments: - Key Points: Taslcforee terms of reference 822 2. Minister Hum suggests removing the reference to the Bureau ofMeteorology?s (B OM) Australian temperature dataset. Your office has been Working with Senator Birmingham to appoint a suitably qualified individual, supported by one or into independent teohnioal experts to undertake a quality assurance review of the dataset by February 2015. This Work need not be duplicated by the Taskforoe. The review will look into the speoi'lio claims published in The Australian in August 2014 that the BOM was adjusting its data to ?t a predetermined View of global warming. a. The draft reply to Minister Hunt asks him to ensure Senator Birmingham mites to you with the outcome ofthe review. 3. Senator Binninghatn is also strengther?ng longnterm ovarsight of the work in this area. This will involve external experts perio dioally reviewing the processes and methodologies in relation to the temperature dataset. PROTECTED For Official Use Only PRQTECTED For Official Use Only 4. Minister Bisho has agreed to the removal of reference to the ROM, and David Hazlehul'st Policy 0 car: Helen Wilson Executive Co ord'matol? Phona no: Novemb er 2014 Consultation: Intamational Division, of Environment, DFAT PRUTIECTED For Official Use Only 2 PROTECTED For Official Use Orlly ATTACHMENTS ATTACHMENT A AMENDED TERMS OF REFERENCE VERSION WTTH AMENDMENTS AND CLEAN WESTON ATTACHMENT DRAFT LETTERS TO ATTACHMUEN TNCOMHNG LETTER FROM MR HUNT $22 PROTECTED For Official Use Only 3 Tarms of Reference far 2015 UNFCECC Task?ume Taskforca responsibilities will indlude (3'0 ordination and?adviog on: Quali?. assme? . PROTECTED Terms of Rsferems for 20115 Taskforce 322 Tasld?orce responsibilities w?l inci?dq abomination ahd ad?rioe on: $22 a quali?qr climate; and missions ?at? 'fqr Australia; (C 522 'ns?n For Official Use Only Reference: 314/33 074- The Hon Greg Hunt MP Minister for the a1'1ia1nent House CANBERRA ACT 26 00 Dear Minister I am writing to you in relation to the terms of reference for the tasldoree coordinating an approach to preparations for the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. - Please ?nd attached the ?nal terms of reference, revised following consideration of your, Minister Bishop?s and Minister Maefarlane? resp onses. Thank you for with Senator Birmingham to strengthen oversight of the Bureau of Meteorology?s temperature dataset. The credibility of agencies is important and must be ensured. I ask that Senator Birmingham write to me reporting on the outcome of the review of the temperattne dataset. Finn ?ttir?iei Univ For Official Use 0:1le I have copied this letter to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Treasurer, the Minister for Industry and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment. Yours sincerely TONY ABBOTT The 181mm (3mg Hum Mimi's?ew :er ?he Eav?mnmem mm: MGM-023605 'Ehe Hon TO?Y-Ahbott MP Prim? Minister Pailiammt Home CANBERRA 26% 3 =3 3183231; Dear Prime Minister ann? f?Ha-I F050 :1 ??mn/hn The oraft terms of?ooforonoo rofoxo to tho Easkforco doing doe oh the Mom; of. Moioorologyis Australian'tomporeiiuro dataset, In doing this, ii is important to note that puiz?lio' trust in the Btit?oau?s doth and forecasts, as they relate to bush?ros and cyclones is paramount. G?ivon'fho poolioity about the Bureau?s temperature (iota sols, Sonator Bifmilighain and I - established a strengthened govmoanoo ovorsight oftho Bureau?s ongoing work in this area. It is importmili to oinphosiso that fl?s?is primarily of matter of meteorology, statistics and (Lia-ta as'sumnco? Thfo ovaolght a111'augo111ootwill involve a paool of qualified persons}, including to periodically review the Bureau?s work. This will be a public and ongoing villi-Ii an announcement of panel members in the near ?xture. In that context, having .tho'taskforco undertake quality assurance ol-?tho Bureau would duplicates Work already boi'ng undertaken. As sooh, I reoommend theta be no reference to tho Bureau of Motooi?ology in the terms of1'o'foromoo1 not to tho toskforoo doing duo diligonco on Australia?s oiimato and omissions data. I undol?otand Senator Birmingham is havlog aisousslons With your of?oo on howghy remaining u?oo?alofdos oho previous processes could be addressed. Tli?z?'i oaid? would oxpoojt that the iask?forco woul?l provide aloof, von?i?e?cl iui?orm?ltioo sourced from the Bureau aoclol?sowhoro oil-Australia?s climate and emissions" da?ta to inform preparatioos for-tho Paria?onferenco. I. look forward to also losliforoe commencing ifs work. ?(ou?rs Sin?e'?i?y Grog Hunt Document 2 From: Gruen, David . Sent: Wednesday, 19 November 2014 9:31 AM To: Ta for Marie? Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David Cc: Subject: RE: Hunt Letter and brief UNCLASSIFIED David Parker has been on a campaign to get us to change it. David From: Taylor, Marie Sent: Tuesday, 18 November 2014 6:28 PM To: Wils Gruen, David; Hazlehurst, David Cc: Subject: RE: Hunt Letter and brief UNCLASSIFIED Interesting. Note Minister Hunt recommends the removal of the reference to the ROM review and the removal of the reference to doing due diligence on climate and emissions data. 5470 Marie Marie Taylor First Assistant Secretary industry, infrastructure 8: Environment Division De artment of the Prime Minister Cabinet ah From: Parker, David Sent: Tuesday, 18 November 2014 3:44 PM To: Gruen, David; Hazlehurst, David; Wilson, Helen Cc: de Brouwer, Gordon; Archer, Brad Subject: FW: $22 Colleagues Apparently this was signed at about the same time we were meeting this morning. Regards David From: Gibbons, Patrick Sent: Tuesday, 18 November 2014 3:31 PM To: Parker, David Subject: David, attached is the letter to the PM. Regards Patrick Document 3 w. a .. . From: Parker, David Sent: Tuesday, 18 November 2014 3:58 PM To: Wilson, Helen Cc: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie; de Brouwer, Gordon; Archer, Brad Subject: RE: PM Brief on Taskforce para?s on BOM Helen, Thanks this looks OK. No doubt you will pick up that Minister Hunt has now written and you can reflect speci?cs of the response as necessary in the brief. Regards David Sent: Tuesday, 18 Novem er 2014 To: Parker, David 7 Cc: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: PM Brief on Taskforce para's on BOM [DLM=For?Official?Use?Only] Official Use Only Hi David, as discussed this morning, grateful for you clearance/comments (by cob today if at all possible) on the para?s below and the attached letter. The paras are for our brief to the PM, seeking his agreement to the Terms of Reference track changes version attached). Happy to discuss kind regards Helen Helen Wilson Assistant Secretary Infrastructure, Climate and Energy Branch Industry, Infrastructure Environment Division Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 822 BOX 6500 CANBERRA ACT 2600 *Please note i do not work Fridays. Please contact 522 IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. Document 4 From: Wilson, Helen Sent: Tuesda 18 November 2014 3:33 PM To: Cc: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: PM Brief on Taskforce para's on BOM For Official Use Only Hi David, as discussed this morning, grateful for you clearance/comments (by cob today if at all possible) on the para?s beiow and the attached letter. The paras are for our brief to the PM, seeking his agreement to the Terms of Reference track changes version attached). Happy to discuss kind regards Helen Helen Wilson Assistant Secretary 1 1 Infrastructure, Climate and Energy Branch - . Industry, infrastructure Environment Division I Department ofthe Prime Minister and Cabinet 9. ml f. PO BOX 6500 CANBERRA ACT 2600 *Please note I do not work Fridays. Please contact 522 PROTECTED Terms of Reference for 2015 Taskforce Taskforce responsibilities would i i and emissions data for Australia ewe?the Dan-- PROTECTED For OfficialUse Only Reference: The Hon Greg Hunt MP Minister for the Environment Parliament House CANBERRA ACT 2600 Dear Minister I am writing to you in relation to the terms of reference for the taskforce coordinating an approach to preparations for the 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference. Please ?nd attached the final terms of reference, revised following consideration of Ministers? suggestions. For Official Use Only For Official Use Only I have copied this letter to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Treasurer, the Minister for Industry and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment. Yours sincerely TONY ABBOTT For Official Use Only Document 5 $22 From: Wilson, Helen. Sent: Monday, 17 November 2014 1 :35 PM To: Hazlehurst David Cc: ?Taylor, Marie Subject: Email to David Parker re; DLM=Sensit?ve] PROTECTED Sensitive s22 Document 6 .From . Sent: Friday, 14 November 2014 12:57 PM To: Hazlehurst, David Cc: Morgan, Nick; Gruen, David; Wilson, Helen; Taylor, Marie; 522 Subject: taskforce next steps ED, DLM=Sensitive:Cabinet] PROTECTED Sensitive: Cabinet Hi David PM Brief on taskforce. We put the current draft brief in your in tray this morning. Would appreciate your feedback on the brief. Also, do you know if resolved the BOM issue with Senator Birmingham? Have discussed a couple of times further withHe?s speaking to the Par! Sec this arvo and will let me know how he?s gone. Still waiting on Minister Hunt?s reply, but consider the brief is still worth putting up early next week if we don?t have a reply by Minister Hunt by then. The updated terms of reference incorporate most of Ministers suggestions, and take out the BOM wording. Of course if we get a ietter from Minister Hunt, we?ll update the brief. Agree. Thanks 522 I A/g Assistant Secretary Infrastructure, Climate and Energy Branch Industry, Infrastructure and Environment Division Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet n; m. e. 322 PO Box 6500 CANBERRA ACT 2600 Document 7 $22 From: 522 Sent: Thursday, 13 November 2014 10:25 AM To: '30 He Cc: Subject: taskforce TOR [DLM=SenSitive:Personal] Attachments: with tracked changesdoox UNCLASSIFIED Sensitive: Personal Hi Helen, Please see attached the original Terms of Reference that the PM would have seen, with the amendments in track changes. These are consistent with those cleared by David Haziehurst. $22 From: Parker, David 922 Sent: Friday, 10 October 2014 5:52 PM To: Wilson, Helen Cc: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie; de Brouwer, Gordon Subject: RE: 2015 Paris Conference [DLM=Sensitive:Personal] Helen - thanks this is a good step forward. I struggle to grasp exactly what it is that the tas?kforce would do to fulfil its responsibilities in the revised ToRs of: The other responsibilities are much more specific (appropriately so) and if we can besimiiarly specific in these two areas then it would be preferable to say so. To be helpful, here is an alternate suggestion: 1 As foreshadowed at the meeting at we have prepared a draft letter from the Minister in response to the Prime Minister?s letter. i will shortly forward it to you from our protected system. Following is the other info you requested re the BOM data set and some other background info: I The brief to the Parliamentary Secretary and response on the quality assurance process re the temperature dataset is attached. 0 This link to the 80M website has all the background on the review of the data (the other tabs on that page will give you the data, and the adjustments, and why, and all sorts of stuff that fascinates weather buffs) . The story about Australian emissions data and the quality assurance process which involves a process this is a big job for experts, with the UNFCC delegation of country experts here all this week to pour over our stuff. We repay the favodr by participating in delegations to verify the emissions info produced by other countries: - All the data on emissions: Cheers .. David. Mai - Wwa Wand-ha From: Wilson, Helen Sent: Thursday, 9 October 2014 7:45 PM To: Parker, David Cc: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: 2015 Paris Conference [DLM=Sensitive:Personal] UNCLASSIFIED Sensitive: Personal Hi David, As discussed yesterday would be grateful for any comments you have on the attached amended Terms of Reference by cob Monday. Also would be great if we can have the information requested on the BOM and Senator Birmingham?s process to establish thetechnical advisory panel by Monday. s22 Helen Helen Wilson Assistant Secretary Infrastructure, Climate and Energy Branch . lndustr Infrastructure Environment Division I Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet ml e. PO BOX 6500 CANBERRA ACT 2600 *Please note i do not work Fridays. Please contact IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. PROTECTED Terms of Reference for 2015 Taskforee Taskforce responsibilities would 1 . 7? and emissions data; ase?the?best 9 . - A - PROTECTED Document 8 From: Hazlehurst, David 522 Sent: Monday, November 10, 2014 03:32 PM AUS Eastern Standard Time 0: Parker, David Cc: Green, David; Wilson, Helen; Taylor, Marie Subject: RE: Quick ACORN-SAT assessment draft terms of reference UNCLASSIFIED Hi David Thanks for sending these through. Two thoughts from us: 0 We had thought the ?quick? assessment was to be commissioned by the Parliamentary Secretary rather than the BOM itself, but the ToRs start with 'The is seeking $22 Perhaps we can discuss. Thanks David From: Parker, David Sent: Thursday, 6 November 2014 3:20 PM To: Hazlehurst, David . Subject: FW: Quick ACORN-SAT assessment draft terms of reference David As discussed. Here is a cut of terms of reference. Apparently the Parliamentary Secretary is going to talk to today re process and name. Regards David From: Vicki Middleton $22 Sent: Thursday, 30 October 2014 9:03 AM 0: Parker David Cc: Subject: Quick assessment draft arms of reference Hi David As discussed earlier in the week attached are a draft terms of reference for the "quick" assessment ahead of the advisory forum. 5470 and 47F 2 Let me know what else you need from me? Cheers Vicki Vicki Middleton Deputy Director (Corporate Services Division) I Chief Operating Officer Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289 Melbourne VIC 3001 Level 6, 700 Collins Street, Docklands VIC 3008 IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. Ifyou are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. Terms of Reference wAustraiia?s Climate Record Fact Check The Bureau of Meteorology is seeking an independent assessment of the stems of its Australian Climate Observations Reference Network Surface Air Temperature (ACORN SAT) data?set. The assessment will deiiver a plain English assessment of the transparency, materiality of variations in climate data and the quality and comprehensiveness of the 2011 independent review of ACORN SAT.- The assessments will be presented as fact sheets and will include: 1. Transparency and public availability of the ACORN SAT information including: -. Raw and adjusted data; documentation of data methods; Computer code; - Adjustments inputs and outputs of peer review; and Benchmarking of the against other comparable international agencies 2. Quality and independence of the 2011 review SAT data and methods including: Panel members Extent of review Rigour of anaiysis - Key findings Benchmarking of the against other comparable international agencies Public of relevant information on the inputs and outcomes ofthe review. I l? 3. Materiality of claims about AUstralia?s climate record, in particular: - Compared to raw (unadjusted) data, how does homogenisation materially affect the overall climate trend for Australia? Compared to other available data sets how clothe trends indicated by ACORN-SAT compare? How does BOMs curation methods compare to other international curation methods? - Fact check of the 5 most common claims of critics of the BOMs management of AUstl?aiia?s climate record. The Department of the Environment will appoint a suitably qualified individual, supported as required by an independent technical expert. Background: The Bureau of Meteorology gathers and maintains the national climate record for Australia. A sub~set of the national record is the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network Surface Air Temperature data-set. This includes long-term, high-quality, homogenised data for 112 stations distributed across Australia. The Bureau uses this data?set (amongst others) to report on changes in Australia?s climate. in August 2011, a panel of World?leading experts convened in Melbourne to examine the methods used to analyse the Bureau's temperature data This entailed submissions and presentations from the scientists developing ACORN-SAT, as well as a review panel eXamination of the Bureau's observations practices, station selection methodology, data homogenisation, data analysis methods and communication. After reviewing all of the processes the Bureau employs to prepare and maintain ACORN-SAT the panel was satisfied, overall, with the methodologies used by the Bureau. it ranked the Bureau?s procedures and data analysis as amongst the best in the world. The panel made 31 recommendations regarding the future management One of those was to establish a Technical Advisory Group or Forum to review progress on the development and operation of the ACORNHSAT data?set: Review Recommendation E4: A Technical Advisory Group "should be established to meet approximately annually, to review progress on the development and operation of the ACORN-SAT data?set. The Group should comprise respected external scientists and statisticians, as well as representatives of data users, stakeholders with relevant experience in regionalAustralia, and representatives from other relevant functional areas of the Bureau. An alternative Would be to establish a by? invitatian annual technical advisory forum involving respected external scientists, statisticians and stakeholders to provide an opportunity for external comment on the further development of the ACORN-SAT system. The Bureau agreed with the recommendation and undertook to establish aTechnical Advisory Forum, to meet every two years: Bureau response: Agreed. The Bureau agrees that there would be value in enhancing the level of technical dialogue around. the data-set and methods. The Bureau will hold a technical workshop eyery two years, starting in March 2014 (two years after the public release of the data-set) to review the state of the science and to identify possible improvements to the database and analysis methods. The Bureau will ensure that a broad range of experts from outside the agency is indudied into the workshop process. Technical Advisory Forum Arrangements are currently being implemented to appoint independent, suitably qualified, individuals to participate in the forum. Nominations are being sought from Australia?s Chief Scientist, The Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Australian Academy of Sciences and the Australian Academy oi'Technological Sciences and Engineering. The forum will be held in early 2015. Document 9 From: Gruen, David Sent: Monday, 10 November 2014 5:47 PM To: Wilson, Helen: Hazlehurst David Cc: Taylor, Marie; Subject: RE: Quick assessment draft terms of reference UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use Only Helen David From: Wilson, Helen Sent: Monday, 10 November 2014 5:35 PM To: Gruen, David; Hazlehurst, David Cc: Taylor, Marie; Subject: RE: Quick assessment draft terms of reference [DLM=For?OfficiaI?Use?Only] UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use Only David, thanks Helen . 1 From: Gruen, David Sent: Monday, 10 November 2014 4:40 PM To: Wilson, Helen* Hazlehurst David Cc: Taylor, Maria? Subject: RE: Quick assessment draft terms of reference UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use Only Helen Davide From: Wilson, Helen Sent: Monday, 10 November 2014 4:35 PM To: Hazlehurst, David Cc: Taylor, Marie; Gruen, Dam? Subject: RE: Quick assessment raft terms of reference UNCLASSIFIED For Of?cial Use Only Hi David Hz, Just to add, we have a brief drafted for the PM ready to go once we receive Minister Hunts reply on the for the taskforce (Bishop and Macfarlane have already replied). As you know we were recommending the PM agree: the amended ToR?s; thanks Helen From: Hazlehurst, David Sent: Monda 10 November 2014 3:40 PM To: Cc: Wilson, Helen; Taylor, Marie; Gruen, Davi Subject: FW: Quick assessment draft terms of reference 7 UNCLASSIFIED 322 We got the attached draft through from Environment late last week. As discussed, the plan here is, ahead of setting up the ongoing panel, to have a quick independent assessment of the most criticisms of the ACORN SAT data set. you mentioned the Parliamentary Secretary may have spoken to you brie?y about this on Friday. Not sure if he?s also passed these ToRs on. I?ve provided the following feedback to Environment (David Parker, the relevant ?Two thoughts from us: . We had thought the ?quick? assessment was to be commissioned by the Parliamentary Secretary rather than the BOM itself, but the ToRs start with ?The BOM is seeking 522 Obviously we?re running out of time to get this done this year. I wonder whether it might be quickest for you to engage directly back with the Parliamentary Secretary and/or the Minister, given that the Parl Sec has now contacted you directly. a Very happy to discuss. David Document 10 From: Haziehurst, David Sent: Monday, 3 Novamber 2014 9:50 PM To: ?Parker David thanks David. completely understand the distractions of last week. would be great to get your input on the two matters we discussed (the TOR and the proposed approach to early assessment of the recent criticisms of BOM) as soon as possible so we can engage the PMO. cheers David Document 12 -?--?Original From: Hazlehurst, David Sent: Thursday, October 23, 2014 04:21 PM AUS Eastern Standard Time To: 'Parker, David (Protected)?; Gruen, David Cc: Wilson, Helen; de Bi'ouwer, Gordon (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Sounds great. Thanks David. Sent: Thursday, 23 October 201 . To: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David Cc: Wilson, Helen; de Brouwer, Gordon (Protected) - Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 David I am working up a couple of options in the quick pre?review space, in addition to the proposal to get the panel proper together before the end of the year. Will get back soon Regards David From: Hazlehurst, David 522 Sent: Thursday, 23 October 2014 2:56 PM To: Parker, David (Protected); Gruen, David Cc: Wilson, Helen; de Brouwer, Gordon (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Hi David Thanks. The approach on, and nominees for, the membership looks good. 5470 Will give you a ring to discuss: Cheers David From: Parker, David weaned)" Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 7:54 PM To: Gruen, David; Hazlehurst, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 David .Couid you send; me the latest TOR for the taskforce. Cheers David From: Gruen, David 522 Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 11:02 AM To: Parker, David (Protected); Hazlehurst, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED David David From: Parker, David (Protected) Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 10:35 AM To: Haziehurst, David; Gruen, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 David, Cheers David From: Haziehurst, David 322 Sent: Monday, 20 October 2014 1:35 PM To: Gruen, David; Parker, David (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Hi David Just wondering how you?re going with this. (Apologies if there?s been another email We missed). We?re hoping to go back to the PMO in the next few days to test the revised ToRs, but need to have a firm position on BOM. Perhaps we can discuss at estimates (espect we?ll be there around 2.30pm). Cheers David From: Gruen, David Sent: Monday, 13 October 2014 10:28 AM To: Parker, David (Protected); Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Thanks David. This came up in the first of my catch?ups with Gordon last week: 0 My Parliamentary Secretary has brought forward implemention of a from the previous quality assurance exercise to establish strengthened governance oversight of the Bureau?s ongoing work . in this area. This will involve a panel of eminent persons, particularly with statistical skills, which will meet annually to review the Bureau?s work. (It is important to emphasise that this is primarily a matter of meteorology, statistics and data assurance not a matter of climate science.) This?will be a public and ongoing process. Should you have views to strengthen this process we would welcome them. s47C David (there are too many David?s in this processii) From: Parker, David (Protected) Sent: Friday, 10 October 2014 6:05 PM To: Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst,? David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 CoHeagues As foreshadowed, here is a copy of the draft reply re the taskforce not yet sent I understand Regards David IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is confidential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. lfyou have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other I party or take action in reliance of any material contained it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is confidential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. BUREAU 0.5? METEQ ROLO CW re: Parliamentary seeped (do Minister) (for decision) assessments er? reeHNleeL. ADVIso'ev FORUM Thorpe: it admirer [snowstin Dibbese .?Jhuu'r?l?bv'Ti . Reserpmendetldti: secrete? Comm?n?: iridilunslr-t to! 9.- Mr!" I. or r. it Key Points: 1. This is a sopplemenierv brief to which advised of progress With implementirig recommendations from the 2.011 Australian (Climate Observations Reference Surface Air Temperature (AGORMSAT) expert review. One or the recommeodetlene oi the international peer reiIlew processes and 'methodOIogies. undertaken in 2011 were that Technical Advisory Group should be established to nieet approximately annually, to review progress o?f??sa?eVelopment and operation of the ACORN-SAT data-set. The Group should comprise respected external soieniists and statisticians, as well as ?dreamers. stakehW?? releva' n?r experience in rwdetralis, end Eptesent??vee from' other relevant functional areas Marceau. An alternative would be to establish a by-invitetion annual technical adviser forum involving respected eittemel scientists, sietis'tib?i?a??s and stakeholders to provide an opportunity for external ?comment on the furtheridEV??lopment ofthe WORN-SAT system". Maid-002380" .oohteined. draft Terms-oi Reference for the establishment .of Teohnie'ei Advisory Forum'for the ACORMSAT, and advised of plans to nominate experts to participate In the Forum. W?t? 4. 5. i: 6. The draft Terms of 'Refere'nc?e?fdr?ihe forum?ha'va been Updated ta re?ect ydu?r fee?bapk at; Mia?h?'i'e? B. (. 5470 Mr Graham Hawks Dr Rob? Verteasy .. . Director of Meteordlogy?and CEO Depmy Dfrector Env'mnment and Bur of Meteorology Research phi Bureau of Meteorology Mo?b. Pb: 322 W6.- dctober 2014 322 ATTAG B. Update draft Terms of Reference PH uNoLAsleIeo We Boreas of Meteemioey- Technicai Addison}? forum for the Climate i?hservehiohs Reference Netwo'rlg?erlece Air Temperature datsm'set Background The Bureau of Meteorology gathers and maintains the?hational clitr'iete record for Australia. A subset of the national record is the Australian Climate Observations Reference Network-Surface Air ?i?erriper'atofe data-set, This includes long-term, high? quality, homogenised data for 112 stations distributed across Australia. The Bureau uses this data-set [amongst others) to report on changes in Australia?s climate, Invhugust-ZOI 1, a panel ofwox~ld~leeding experts co?zivened Melbohrne? to examine the m?efhods used to analyse the Bureau?s temperature data. This entailed submissions and presentations From the Scientists developing ACORN-SAT, as well as a review p'ddel examination-of the Bu?reau's observations practices, station selection methodology, date homogenisation, data analysis methods and communication. Afterreviewm'g all fifths processes the'Bur'esu employs to prepare and maintain ACORN- the panel was satis?ed, overall, with the methodologies used by the Bureau. It ranked the Bureau's procedures and data analysis as amongst the best in the world; The-panel made .31 recommendations regarding the Future management O?n?e toe?s?tabli?sh 'a Technical Advisory Group or Forum foresee progress on the develgg?ment and operation ofthe data-set: Review Recommendation E4: A Technical Advisory Grmip should be ,to meet approxi'maieb' annually, to review phogress on the development; and operatioh of the ACORN-SA The Group should comprise respected external shientists and sta'tisticiohs- as well as representatives of cloth users, Stakeholders with "relevant experience in regional Australia, and representatives from other relevant functional areas of the Bureau. An alternative would be to establish a Win vitotion annual technical advisory . fofilm in velvng respected external scientists, statistidians and stakeholders to provide an vopiioriuniigy for external comment on the further debelopmen i: ofthe ACORN-SA The Bureau agreed with the. recommendation and undertook to establish a Technical Advisory Forum, to meet every oddyears; Bureau response: Agreed. The Bureau agrees that there wouldbe Value in enhancing the level, of technical dialogue around the data-set'ond methods. The Bureau will hold a technical workshop every two years, starting in March 2014 (twa years lifter the public release of the data-set) to UNCLASSIFIED 1 UNCLASSIFIED - rewaw the slots of the Safari :33 and to identh possible improuamen is she database and analysis methods. The Bureau will arisn'r? that a broad range of experts from outside the agency is inducted in to the worksb up process. Fa rum Terms of'Refeseace Provide tornmanton the further development of tho datavsei: and methods, particularly: 1. the list of statiims included 2, ills Climate data homogenisation methods uSed 3-. the trend analysis methods used 143 thecommunication methods used 5, comparisons with other'leading climate centres The shows Terms of Reference will be finalised prior to the ?rst meeting of the Forum. Forum membership Nominations Will be snugh?t from-the Chief Scientist, the Australian 'Statistioian, the Australian Academy 'o?f'S'cien'ce and the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences. The Bureau of MeteOrol'ogy Will provide the s?cretariat to the forum. Forum format Forums will run over one day; every two years The morning will be devoted to ACORN - SAT Stains updates, provided by Bureau scientists. The afternoon will be devoted to discussion, with forum members provided the Opportunity to comment on the data-set and methods and related activity in Australia and abroad. Forum prei?adinguwill be made available to m?mhers a fortnight prior to meeting. A member~approved~rscord of each Forum will be made available on the Bureau web site. Suhj?otfto availability of members, the first Foiu'm Willb? h?ld' in early 2015. UNCLASSIFIED 2 Document 13 522 From: Wilson, Helen Sent: October 2014 2:57 PM To: Go: Subject: ra mister Reply - Hunt2015 - Follow Up Flag: Follow up Flag Status: Completed PROTECTED $2 - see below for background on the BOM'issue for the brief to the PM will keep you both posted thanks Helen From: Gruen, David Sent: Thursday, 23 October 2014 2:56 PM To: Ha?zlehurst, David Cc: Wilson, Helen Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 PROTECTED David. Hopefully we?ll get action pretty smartly. David From: Hazlehurst, David Sent: Thursday, 23 October 2014 2:54 PM To: 'Parker, David (Protected)'; Gruen, David Cc: Wilson, Helen; de Brouwer, Gordon (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 UNF PROTECTED Hi David Thanks. The approach on, and nominees for, the membership looks good. Will give you a ring todiscuss. Cheers David From: Parker, David (Protected) Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 7:54 PM To: Gruen, David; Hazlehurst, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 David Could you send me the latest for the taskforce. Cheers David From: Gruen, David Sent: Tuesday, 21 Octo er To: Parker, David (Protected); Hazlehurst, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 PROTECTED David I I David From: Parker, David (Protected Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 10:35 AM To: Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 David, Cheers David From: Hazlehurst, David 322 Sent: Monday, 20 October 2014 1:35 PM To: Gruen, David; Parker, David (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 [seczpnorecr PROTECTED Hi David Just wondering how you?re going with this. (Apologies if there?s been another email We missed). We?re hoping to go back to the PMO in the next few days to test the revised ToRs, but need to have a firm position on - - Perhaps we can discuss at estimates (expect we?ll be there around 2.30pm). Cheers David From: Gruen, David Sent: Monday, 13 October 2014 10:28 AM To: Parker, David (Protected); Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Thanks David. This came up in the first of my catch?ups with Gordon last week: i 0 My Parliamentary Secretary has brought forward implemention of a recommendation from the previous quality aSsurance exercise to establish strengthened governance oversight of the Bureau?s ongoing-work in this area. This will involve a panel of eminent persons, particularly with statistical skills, which will meet annually to review the Bureau?s work. (It is important to emphasise that this is primarily a matter of meteorology, statistics and data assurance not a matter of climate science.) This will be a public and ongoing process. Should you have views to strengthen this process we would welcome them. 847?: David (there are too many David?s in this processl!) mm: Parker. David (Protected) Sent: Friday, 10 October 2014 6:05 PM To: Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 Colleagues As foreshadowed, here is a copy of the draft reply re the taskforce not yet sent I understand Regards David IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is confidential and may also be of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you? must not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email informing them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message from your computer system. Document 14 $22 From: Hazlehurst, David Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 12:44 PM To: Gruen, David; Parker, David (Protected) Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Thanks David. Extra question from me, We really need something on this point (Very soon) to test with the PMO. Otherwise we?re likely to be back where We started. Happy to discuss Cheers David From: Gruen, David Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 2014 11:00 AM To: Parker, Daviid (Protected); Hazlehurst, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 >4 PROTECTED David - David . Froml: Parker, David (Protected) Sent: Tuesday, 21 October 201 To: Haziehurst, David; Gruen, David Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply - Hunt 2015 David, Cheers David Front}: Haziehurst, David Sent: Monday, 20 October 2014 1:35 PM T: Gruen, David; Parker, David (Protected) Suhjeet: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Hi David Just wondering how you?re going with this. (Apologies if there?s been another email We missed). We?re hoping to go back to the PMO in the next few days to test the revised ToRs, but need to hava a firm position on BOM. Perhaps we can discuss at estimates (expect we?ll be there around 2.30pm). Cheers David From: Gruen, David Sent: Monday, 13 October 2014 10:28 AM To: Parker, David (Protected); Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: RE: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 PROTECTED Thanks David. This came up in the first of my catch?ups with Gordon last week: My Parliamentary Secretary has brought forward implemention of a recommendation from the previous quality assurance exercise to Establish strengthened governance oversight of the Bureau?s ongoing work in this area. This will involve a panel of eminent persons, particularly with statistical skills, which will meet annually to review the Bureau?s work. (It is important to emphasise that this is primarily a matter of meteorology, statistics and data assurance not a matter of climate science.) This will he a public and ongoing process. Should you have Views to strengthen this process We Would welcome them. S47C David (there are too many David?s in this processll) tram: Parker. David (Protected) Sent: Friday, 10 October 2014 6:05 PM To: Wilson, Helen; Hazlehurst, David; Gruen, David; Taylor, Marie Subject: Draft Minister Reply Hunt 2015 CoHeagues As foreshadowed, here is a copy of the draft reply re the taskforce wrnot yet sent i understand Regards David IMPORTANT: This message, and any attachments to it, contains information that is con?dential and may also be the subject of legal professional or other privilege. If you are not the intended recipient of this message, you .nust not review, copy, disseminate or disclose its contents to any other party or take action in reliance of any material contained Within it. If you have received this message in error, please notify the sender immediately by return email inferming them of the mistake and delete all copies of the message ?out your computer system. Document 15 Role of the Taskforce vis?a?vis DFAT and the Department of the Environment Independent Experts The taskforce will engage experts as required to undertake discrete pieces of work, for example the due diligence on the Bureaulof Meteorology?s temperature dataset. Secretary Ms (31955 Dr Gruen Dr McCarthy Mr Hazieliurst Mr Fox Ms Taylor Ms Wood Ms Tsirbas Ms Wilson PMO Chief of Staff Cablnel File Document 16 Ref: 1314/2729 Routine/Low Complexity DEPARTMENT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET PROTECTED Sensitive Cabinet To: Prime Minister (for signature) Recommendations that you: 1. Note that, following discussion with your of?ce, we will establish a taskforce in to ensure you, key Ministers and then the Cabinet, have the best available information and advice in the lead up to the Paris Conference in December 2015. r9) (it 2, Sign the letters to the Ministers for Foreign Affairs, Industry and the Environmen (Attaciunents A to respectively) informing them of the taskforce and asking for their x/j/h, gigned Not Signed My! input in ?nalising the draft terms of reference at Attachment D. TONY ABBOTT I Date: Comments 2 Key Points: 3. Draft terms of reference for the taskforce are attached and include: PROTECTED Sensitive Cabinet PROTECTED Sensitive Cahnet 822 c. a quality assurance review of the Bureau of Mctcorology?s Australian temperature dataset; and 522 Background: 7. In recent articles in the Australian, the Bureau of Meteorology was accused of altering its temperature data records to exaggerate estimates of global warming. The way the Bureau manages its climate records is recognised internationally as among the best in the World. It uses a scienti?c approach that has been peer~1*eviewed. The approach is transparent and available 011 the Bureau?s website. Nevertheless, the public need con?dence information on Australia?s, and the worlds, climate is reliable and based on the best available science. Policy Of?cer: Helen Wilson 8 501155311? Phone 110: m. September2014 Consultation: PMO PROTECTED Sensitive Cabinet 2 PROTECTED Sensitiva Cabinet ATTACHMENTS ATTACHMENT A ATTACHMENT ATTACHMENT ATTACHMENT Terms of Reference PROTECTED Seneitive Cabinet 3 PROTECTED Terms of Reference for 2.015 Taskforce 522 Taskforce responsibilities would include: .6 due diligence to ensure Australia?s climate and emissions data are the best possible, including the Bureau of Meteorology?s Australian temp stature dataset and other related data; and 522 PROTECTED PROTECTED Terms of Reference for ZOJS Tasldurce 322 Taskforce responsibilities would include: 9 due diligence to ensure Australia?s climate and emissions data are the best possible, including. the Bureau dataset and other . . related data; and PROTECTED PROTECTED Terms of Reference for 2015 Taskferce $22 Taskforce responsibilities would include: a due diligence to ensure Australia?s climate and emissions data are the best ossible, 13 including the Bureau ofMeteorology?s Australian ?temperature dataset and other- related data; and 822 PROTECTED Document 17 From: Pearce, Kelly Sent: Wednesda 3 Se tember 2014 6:19 PM To: Cc: Subject: FW: BOM and homoginising weather data UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use Only Hi In addition to the article I sent you (which is a simpler explanation than the BOM one), below is the media release put out by the Bureau of Meteorology, setting out the facts around its climate records and how they are managed it can be found at releases/ho/20140827shtmI). We understand Senator Birmingham?s office has chosen not to buy into this and has not been responding to media enquiries on this issue and all requests for information are being directed to the Bureau. The media has started to die down, although The Australian is still seeking some information from the Bureau and there is a possibility the Media Watch may do a segment on how the issue has been reported. Some of the questioning may be about correcting data at specific monitoring sites, such as Rutherglen, and a claim that this was not according to BOMs normal practice, which BOM disputes. Below are some short talking points you could use if required: are Please let me know if you need anything further. Regards, Kelly Bureau of Meteorology Media Statement - Climate Records Contrary to assertions in some parts of the media, the Bureau is not altering climate rebords to exaggerate estimates of global warming. Our role is to make meteorological measurements, and to curate, analyse and communicate the data for use in decision making and to support public understanding. To undertake these tasks, the Bureau employs highly skilled technicians and scientists and invests in high quality monitoring equipment. . The Bureau measures temperature at nearly 800 sites across Australia, chiefly forthe purpose of weather forecasting. The Australian Climate Observations Reference Network a Surface Air Temperature (ACORN-SAT) is a subset of this network comprising 112 locations that are used for climate analysis. The ACORN-SAT stations have been chosen to maximise both length of record and network coverage across the continent. For several years, all of this data has been made publicly available on the Bureau?s web site. Temperature records are influenced by a range of factors such as changes to site surrounds (eg. trees casting shade or in?uencing wind), measurement methods and the relocation of stations (eg. from a coastal to more inland location). Such changes introduce biases into the climate record that need to be adjusted for prior to analysis. Adjusting for these biases, a process known as homogenisation, is carried out by 'meteorologicat authorities around the world as best practice, to ensure that climate data is consistent through time. At the Bureau's request, our climate data management practices were subject to a rigorous independent peer-review in 2012. A panel of international experts found the Bureau?s data and methods were amongst the best in the world. The Bureau's submissions to the review were published on the Bureau's website, as were the findings of the review panel. The Bureau?s methods have also been published in peer?reviewed scienti?cjournals. Both the ?y and adjusted data and the larger unadjusted national data set all indicate that Australian air temperatures have warmed over the last century. This ?nding is consistent with observed warming in the oceans surrounding Australia. These ?ndings are also consistent with those of other ieading international meteorological authorities, such as NCAA and NASA in the United States and the UK MetOffice. The high degree of similarity is demonstrated below in Figure 1. The Bureau strives to ensure that its data sets and analysis methods are as robust as possible. For this reason we place considerable emphasis on quality assurance, transparency and communication. The Bureau welcomes critical analysis of the Australian climate record by others through rigorous scientific peer review processes. For further information: loony?HEM Figure 1: Comparison of the time series (19114010) using analysis grid sets from 18 different sources, including from adjusted and unadjusted data and from analyses from international authorities. Ali anomalyvalues in degrees C, calcuiated as a difference between the annual values and the respective with respect to 1981?2010 means. Satellite time series of the lower atmosphere are plotted for 1979?2010. Source: CAWCR Technical Report No. 050, Page 21, Figure 11. From: Pearce, Kelly Sent: Wednesda 3 September 2014 10:33 AM Tm? Cc: Subject: BOM and homoginising weather data UNCLASSIFIED 322 As discussed, short article from ARC Centre on Climate Science. We will get more info for you today. Regards Kelly Kelly Pearce acting First Assistant Secretary Industry, Infrastructure Environment Division De artment of the Prime Minister and Cabinet m. e. PO Box 6500 CANBERRA ACT 4001 No, the Bureau of Meteorology is not ?ddling its weather data - ver the past week or so, the Bureau of Meteorology has stood accused of fudging its temperature data records to emphasise warming, in a series of articles in The Australian. The accusation hinges on Authors Lisa Alexander Chief Investigator ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science and Senior Lecturer Climate Change Research Centre at UNSW Australia Andy Pitman Director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System science at UNSW Australia. Disclosure Statement Lisa Alexander receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Andy Pitman receives funding from the Australian Research Council. UNSW Australia does not contribute to the cost of running The Conversation. Find out more. Over the past week or so, the Bureau of Meteorology has stood accused of fudging its temperature data records to emphasise warming, in a series of articles in The Australian. The accusation hinges on the method that the Bureau uses to remove non?climate?related changes in its weather station data, referred to as ?data homo genisation?. If true, this would be very serious, because these data sets underpin major climate research projects, including deducing how much Australia is warming. But it?s not true. Crunching the numbers Data homo genisation techniques are used to varying degrees by many national weather agencies and climate researchers around the world. Although the World Meteorological Organization has guidelines for data homogenisation, the methods used vary from country to country, and in some cases no data homogenisation is applied. Homogenisation can be necessary for a range of reasons: sometimes stations move, instruments or reporting practices change, or surrounding._.trees orbuildings at a site. arealtered. Qh?lngS canbe These can all introduce arti?cial ?jumps? (in either direction) in the resulting temperature records. If left I uncorrected, these artifacts could leave the data appearing to show spurious warming or cooling trends. There are many methods that can be used to detect these ?inhomogeneities?, and there are other methods (although much harder to implement) that can adjust the data to make sure it is consistent through time. The Bureau uses such a technique to create its Australian ClimateObservations Reference Network Surface Air Temperature (ACORN data set. These data are then used to monitor climate variability and change in Australia, to provide input for the State of the Climate reports, and for other purposes too. In a statement about its climate records. the Bureau said: The Bureau measures temperature at nearly 800 sites across Australia, chie?y for the purpose of weather forecasting. The is a subset of this network comprising 112 locations that are used for climate analysis. The stations have been chosen to maximise both length of record and network coverage across the continent. For several years, all of this data has been made publicly available on the Bureau?s web site. Complex methods Australia has played a leading role in developing this type of complex data?adjustment technique. In 2010, the Bureau?s Blair Trewin wrote a comprehensive article on the types of inhomogeneities that are found in land temperature records. As a result the International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTD has set up a working group to compare homogenisation methods. Some of our own research at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science has tried, with the help of international colleagues, to assess the impacts that different choices can make when using these different homo genisation methods. Much of our work focuses on temperature extremes. We have studied the impacts on large?scale extreme temperature data of changing station networks, different statistical techniques, homogenised versus non-homo genised data, and other uncertainties that might arise. Out"- databni 'eXt'r'e'm'e itemperamre the: Waiming trendacro the Whole of Australia looks bigger. Wh?ii'yotr don-?fghomogenise the data'than When YOU. do. For example, the adjusted data set (the lower image below) shows a cooling trend over parts of northwest Australia, which isn?t seen in the raw data. Document 18 322 From: Pearce, Kelly Sent: Pride 21 Februa 2014 4:38 PM To: Go: Taylor, Marie Subject: ourly updates Attachments: Plain english options table 160214.docx HI 322 In response to your questions, my colleague at BOM has supplied the following. Aiso attached is a table about what the different options for the supercomputer can do, and we are also getting examples of what this means in real peoples terms. lVly simple take on this was: 0 It takes 2 hours and 40 minutes to run a complete cyclone forecast using the current technology. 0 BOM can provide hourly observations in text form, but not on a map (eg how strong the winds are, how much rain has been recorded, where it has physically been observed to be) ?and the Bureau did so in response to TC Dylan, 6 Observations are not ?forecasts? of where it is going, how fast it is travelling and how strong the winds will be and cannot be relied on by people to predict how to respond to a cyclone. Regards Kelly Why can't you currently do 1 hourly updates to Tropical Cyclone Forecasts The Bureau's current supercomputing capability allows the specific tropical cyclone forecasts to be run twice a daywithout sacrificing other forecast services eg: the 1,400 local community forecasts produced each day and the forecasts for daily aviation and defence operations. The tropical cyclone computer run provides real-time information'on the cyclone's location, past and present, intensity, size and motion, and is used to forecast the tropical cyclone vortex which is then tracked as it approaches the coast. it takes approximately 2 .hourstandzo minutes to complete this forecast in the current supercomputer. This forecast is then updated as, warning on a 3 hourly basis with the latest observations and official issued through a - process that is consistent with international practice and can withstand coronial inquest examination. To provide hourly forecasts of equivalent standard requires a supercomputer larger than the Bureau current supercomputer. in response to the request for hourly updates in response to TC Dylan the Bureau has been providing an updates of the latest observations in text form. These updates are not updated forecast warnings, they simply report the cyclones approximate position in relation to the 3 hourly forecast warning. In practical terms, what protocols does the Bureau have in place to meet competing demands for severe weather forecasts eg: cyclones and bushfires concurrently The first protocol is not tocompromise the supercomputer output that is fundamental to aviation, maritime and defence operations as well as producing over 1,400 forecasts for local communities that inform everyday decision making to respond to individual severe weather events. The Bureau has capability to service severe weather in addition to these fundamental forecast services, in a limited way. The Bureau can currently provide forecasts up to 4 times per day for 3 separate events at a scale of 4kms. This means the Bureau provides a forecast that gives response agencies information about where to focus effort across a broad area (4kms). It cannot provide specific or frequently updated details about small scale weather features such as the location and timing of thunderstorm cells across suburban areas, localised wind changes in bushfire situations and the location of rainfall and topography leading for localised or flash fiooding. Emergency service agencies, through state crisis coordination arrangements provide guidance to the Bureau on their priorities for emergency response eg: Victoria will advise which bushfires they want the Bureau to focus effort on based on their local knowledge about population, infrastructure and assets at risk. Where we cannot meet competing demands eg: If we had 3 jurisdictions demanding cyclone updates more frequently than current capacity the Bureau would prioritise forecasts and warning based on Tropical Cyclone intensity and proximity to coastal communities at risk. Such demands can still be accommodated with the provision of a limited number of spot fire forecasts eg: the maximum we have capability to currently provide in Victoria is 20 at any one time. Please let me know if we can assist further Cheers Vicki Vicki Middleton 1 Deputy Director (Corporate Services Division) 1 Chief Operating Officer Austraiian {Entrainment Bureau of Meteorology GPO Box 1289 Melbourne VIC 3001 Level 6, 7'00 Collins Street, Docklands VIC 3008 Tel Document 19 ii Auditor?General for Australia All "I?Mima'?ml 5? Sensitive tiona? Australian Na 3 February 2014 . - use Dr Jan I Watt A0 Secretary .. .si ililt Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet 333%; I {pa-z, OFFICE One National Circuit I BARTON ACT 2600 i Dear Dr The Australian National Audit Of?ce has undertaken a performance audit in the Bureau of Meteorology titled Administration of the Improving Water Information Program. Pursuant to Sen ate Standing Order 166 relating to the presentation of documents when the Senate is not sitting, the audit report is scheduled to be presented to the President of the Senate on 5 February 2014. A draft ?nal copy of the report is enclosed for your information. As you will appreciate, the confidentiality of the report should be preserved pending the presentation of the report. Copies of the report have also been forwarded to the Prime Minister, the Minister for the Environment, the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment, and the Director of Meteorology, who have been offered a brie?ng on the audit. We would be happy to provide you with a brie?ng on the audit before the report is tabled or at some other convenient ti. Our contact is Group Executive Director, on telephone number Yours sincerely This document is provided in con?dence and must not be copied or disseminated except on a strictly need to know basis. Unauthorised disoiosure may be an offence against the Auditor? General Act 199 7. Sens1t1ve GPO Box 707 CANBERRA ACT 260i [9 Natlonai Circuit BARTON ACT Phone (02) 6203 7500 Fax (02) 6273 5355 Email Document 20 . Ref: Routine/Low Complexity or ans. Pros/ta MENESTER arse CAEENET Secretary . Ms Cross . w??wst To: Prime Minister (for signature) MsPearce ?g?mm QUEENSLAND COLLABORATEON TO IMPROVE FLOOD WARNENG $21331? ARRANGEMENTS IN QUEENSLAND Ms Morton Recommendation(s) - that you: PMO Ms Credlin 1. Sign the attached letter to the Premier of Queensland, the Hon Campbell Newman MP, 322 File: Signed Not Signed TONY ABBOTT Date: Comments: Key Points; 1. Premier Newman wrote to you on 2 December 2013 regarding the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology ?s (BoM?s) capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and to provide seasonal forecasting services (the Munro Review) and in particular, recommendations relating to BoM?s ?ood warning capacity and the allocation across jurisdictions of responsibility for ?ood management (Attachment B). The Munro Review was commissioned by the former in 2011. 2. As Premier of a ?ood?prone state, Mr Newman is particularly concerned with . recommendations relating to improving BoM?s ?ood warning capacity by boosting hydrologists and upgrading ?ood monitoring systems (Priority 2) and agreeing allocations . of responsibility to state and local government for ?ood management (Priority 4). a. Priority 2 was agreed by the fonner Government. As part of the $58.5 million package provided in the 20124.3 Budget, funding was provided to enable to gradually increase its numbers of frontline hydrologists to 23 by 2016?17, and to implement a next?generation flood monitoring and forecasting system from mid-2015. b. Priority 4 is being addressed by a taskforce established under the Australia New Zealand Emergency Management Committee (under COAG). Queensland will have a representative on this group at a senior strategic operational level. 12. Premier Newman has provided a ministerial contact for this work (the Hon Andrew Cripps MP, Minister for Natural Resources and Mines). 1 4 3. 30M is aotiv?ely refenhing its ?eod management role and has advised -us that it-wOuchII be? prepared toreomnien'oe diIsqussionsIWith the Qiieemslemcia goiierninenf f0 explore the I provisibn of ?ood monitoring services. These'discu'ssions have pot yet commieneed and I consideration may.need toibe giver?i to approliriate post-recovery. I. - 4.. The draft response to Premier Newman thar?cs' hini for his'cooperatien in'th?is area and refers his lettI'er'to the Minister fer Justice, the Hon Michael Keenan MP, and the Parliamentary Secreieiy to the Minister for the Environment,? .I I I Senate}; the Hon Simon as? ministers withpor?t?folio responsibility-for this work and for-?apljroprieteaeetionf - - . - I Policy Qf?eer: 322 - Assistant Secretary II Ii Phone no:- :5 . i I Agriculture and Environment Branch ans?ultatiop: Fisoa1;,BOM; 53' /bDecember 2013 . Crisis Management; Disaster-Recovery; ATTACHMENTS ATTACHMENT A DRAFT RESPONSE ATTACHMENT INCOMING CORRESPONDENCE Iv PRIME MINISTER Reference: Cl 3/88048 20 DEC 2013 The Hon Campbell Newman MP Premier of Queensland PO Box 1518 5 CITY EAST 4002 Days/mid Thank you for your letter dated 2 December 2013 regarding the Review ofthe Bureau of Meteorology 13? (30M capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and to provide seasonalfore casting services (the Munro Review) and collaboration to improve ?ood warning arrangements in Queensland. - . I welcome your cooperation in this area which, I agree, is of particular signi?canee for . Queensland. . - I have referred yourlletter to the Minister for Justice, the Hon Michael Keenan MP, and the Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister for the Environment, Senator the Hon . Simon Birmingham, as ministers with portfolio responsibility for this work. I have asked them to make contact with Minister Cripps to explore taking this work forward.? - Thank you for raising this matter with me. I have copied this letter to Minister Keenan and Senator Birmingham. . - TONY ABBOTT Parliament House CANBERRA ACT 2600 Telephone (02) 6277 7700 5 RECEIVED 3 I . .. DEC 2013 Quesd Premier 3f ngensla?d lymta?awmm Guvemment For replyr please quote: Executive Building too George Street Brisbane 2 PO Box15185 City East Quaensland 4002 Australia Telephone 7 3324' 4500 The Honourable Tony Abbott MP Facsimile +61 7322: 3631 - - i - - - Email ThePremier@premlers.qld.gov.au Prime 0f AUStraha Website WWw.thepremier.qld.gcv.au Parliament House . CANBERRA ACT 2600 Dear Prime) ister . .1 refer to the Australian Government?s response to the review of" the. Bureau of Motocrology?s extreme weather capability (the Munro review) released by the former government and, in particular, improvements to BoM?s ?ood warning capacity as detailed under Priority Actions 2 and 4. . . Priority 2 recommends boosting BoM?s flood warning capacity by increasing the number of frontline hydrologists and upgrading the ?ood monitoring system; Priority 4 recommends agreeing'on'a?clcar allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flOod management, with de?ned boundaries on BoM?s role. Queensland is Australia?s most ?ood-prone state. Accountingfor more than,510 deaths and over 15 300 house equivalent losses since 1900, ?ood is'Queensland?s most'destructive natural hazard. Flood is also one of the most predictable natural hazards in Australia, and effective ?ood warning is critical to communities? resilience. However; the Queensland Government is concerned that arrangements for ?ood data collection from the flood warning gauge network are de?cient, which negatively affects the provision of timely and accurate ?ood warnings to the community. The Queensland Government?s View is that thisis a high risk and unacceptable situation which needs to be resolved as a matter of urgency, without delay by undue bureaucratic process. The current collaborative management model for ?ood data collection dates from 1988 and has never been formally accepted by any state or territory. The Munro review, concluded that the collaborative arrangements were complex, inconsistent between states, and not founded on any formal agreement. The extent and frequency of recent ?ooding has proved the social and ?nancial cost of ?ooding to communities and government is too great to continue with existing ambiguous arrangements for the gauge network. In Queensland, more than 2100 flood~monitoring stations are currently distributed across all three tiers of government and the private sector. However, while service level agreements (SLAS) are being progressed, there are few agreed technical standards for the provision of data from these gauges for flood warning purposes. - I The Queensland Government supports the Australian Government?s acknowledgement that it is necessary to clarify the roles and responsibilities for the ?ood warning network in order . to formalise and standardise arrangements for data collection from the flood warning gauge network. Queensland will participate fully in the Commonwealth-led taskforee being established under the auspices of the Council of Australian Goverrunents to resolve these issues. However, the Queensland Government believes that should expand and consolidate its ?ood management role, as recommended in the Munro review, and assume unambiguous responsibility for the ?ood warning network. - The Queensland Government has recently determined that the Department of Natural Resources and Mines will be responsible for overseeing policy aspects of the ?ood warning gauge network in Queensland, including negotiating SLAs and technical standards, investigating partnership opportunities to reduce the burden of gauge ownership to councils, and exploring possibilities for contestability of ?ood warning infrastructure in Queensland. I would invite the Australian Government to contact my Cabinet colleague, the Honourable Andrew Cripps MP, Minister for Natural Resources and Mines regarding these matters. I look forward to collaboration between our governments to improve ?ood warning arrangements in Queensland. Yours sincerely Page 2 of}