This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 7-10, 2015, among a random national sample of 1,003 adults, including landline and cell phone respondents. Results have a 3.5 point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details appended at the end.) 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 12/14/14 10/26/14 10/12/14 9/7/14 6/1/14 4/27/14 3/2/14 1/23/14 12/15/13 11/17/13 10/20/13 9/15/13 7/21/13 5/19/13 4/14/13 3/10/13 1/13/13 12/16/12 11/4/12 11/3/12 11/2/12 11/1/12 10/31/12 10/30/12 10/29/12 10/28/12 10/27/12 10/26/12 10/25/12 10/24/12 10/23/12 10/22/12 10/21/12 10/13/12 9/29/12 9/9/12 8/25/12 7/8/12 5/20/12 4/8/12 3/10/12 2/4/12 1/15/12 12/18/11 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 49 27 22 45 26 20 45 22 23 47 26 21 50 24 26 41 21 20 43 21 22 40 20 20 42 24 18 46 23 23 41 23 19 46 25 22 46 23 23 43 23 20 42 22 21 48 28 20 47 25 22 49 25 24 51 32 20 50 27 23 50 29 21 55 32 23 54 33 21 52 33 10 51 33 10 51 32 11 50 31 11 50 30 11 50 28 12 50 28 11 51 28 11 50 28 11 51 29 10 50 29 9 50 29 10 50 29 21 50 30 20 51 31 20 50 30 21 50 26 24 49 29 20 50 27 23 47 24 24 47 26 21 50 30 20 46 28 18 50 29 22 48 25 23 49 25 24 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 46 9 37 50 13 37 49 11 38 47 11 36 44 9 35 54 13 41 51 12 39 51 12 39 51 12 39 51 14 37 52 12 40 50 12 38 50 9 41 55 14 41 55 11 44 49 10 39 47 11 37 44 12 32 44 10 33 45 10 35 46 11 36 41 8 33 42 9 32 46 10 36 47 10 37 47 11 36 48 11 37 48 11 37 48 12 37 48 11 36 46 11 36 46 11 36 46 10 36 47 9 37 48 10 38 47 9 37 47 10 38 47 10 37 44 10 34 46 12 34 45 11 35 46 13 33 49 15 34 49 13 36 45 10 35 50 11 39 46 11 36 48 11 37 47 13 34 1 No opinion 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 8 6 3 6 3 4 3 3 3 6 7 5 5 4 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 6 4 6 4 4 3 6 4 3 4 4 11/3/11 44 22 22 10/2/11 42 21 21 9/1/11 43 21 22 8/9/11* 44 18 26 7/17/11 47 25 22 6/5/11 47 27 20 5/2/11** 56 29 27 4/17/11 47 27 21 3/13/11 51 27 24 1/16/11 54 30 23 12/12/10 49 24 25 10/28/10 50 27 23 10/3/10 50 26 24 9/2/10 46 24 22 7/11/10 50 28 22 6/6/10 52 30 22 4/25/10 54 31 23 3/26/10 53 34 20 2/8/10 51 29 22 1/15/10 53 30 24 12/13/09 50 31 18 11/15/09 56 32 23 10/18/09 57 33 23 9/12/09 54 35 19 8/17/09 57 35 21 7/18/09 59 38 22 6/21/09 65 36 29 4/24/09 69 42 27 3/29/09 66 40 26 2/22/09 68 43 25 *Washington Post **Washington Post/Pew Research Center 53 54 53 46 48 49 38 50 45 43 47 45 47 52 47 45 44 43 46 44 46 42 40 43 40 37 31 26 29 25 15 14 16 9 14 13 14 12 12 15 15 11 13 14 12 12 11 8 12 13 13 13 11 12 11 9 10 8 9 8 37 40 38 37 35 37 24 37 33 28 32 34 34 38 35 33 33 35 33 32 33 29 29 31 29 28 22 18 20 17 3 4 3 10 5 4 6 3 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling the economy? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 12/14/14 10/26/14 10/12/14 9/7/14 6/1/14 4/27/14 3/2/14 1/23/14 12/15/13 11/17/13 10/20/13 9/15/13 7/21/13 5/19/13 4/14/13 3/10/13 1/13/13 12/16/12 10/13/12 RV -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 49 26 22 47 25 22 47 25 23 49 29 20 48 26 21 44 24 20 42 21 20 44 25 19 42 22 19 43 21 21 42 20 21 43 23 20 43 22 21 42 24 18 41 22 20 44 23 20 45 25 20 45 22 22 48 26 22 44 22 22 44 24 20 50 24 25 50 27 23 47 26 21 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 47 11 36 48 13 35 48 14 34 46 12 34 48 10 38 52 14 38 52 14 38 51 12 39 54 15 39 53 15 38 54 13 41 54 14 41 55 13 42 55 14 40 57 14 42 54 12 42 51 14 37 49 14 35 48 10 37 53 12 41 52 10 42 47 10 37 48 10 38 51 10 41 2 No opinion 5 5 4 5 5 4 7 4 5 4 4 2 3 4 2 2 4 6 4 3 4 3 3 2 9/29/12 RV 47 23 25 9/9/12 RV 45 24 21 8/25/12 44 20 23 7/8/12 44 21 23 5/20/12 42 20 22 4/8/12 44 23 21 3/10/12 38 20 18 2/4/12 44 23 22 1/15/12 41 19 22 12/18/11 41 17 24 11/3/11 38 18 20 10/2/11 35 17 19 9/1/11 36 15 21 7/17/11 39 18 22 6/5/11 40 20 20 5/2/11* 40 18 22 4/17/11 42 23 19 3/13/11 43 22 21 1/16/11 46 22 24 12/12/10 43 21 22 10/28/10 RV 44 21 23 10/3/10 45 22 23 9/2/10 41 20 21 7/11/10 43 20 23 6/6/10 50 26 24 4/25/10 49 24 25 3/26/10 45 23 22 2/8/10 45 22 23 1/15/10 47 22 24 12/13/09 46 23 24 11/15/09 51 26 25 10/18/09 50 29 22 9/12/09 51 28 24 8/17/09 52 27 25 7/18/09 52 29 23 6/21/09 56 28 28 4/24/09 58 31 28 3/29/09 60 34 25 2/22/09 60 NA NA *Washington Post/Pew Research Center 52 53 54 54 55 54 59 53 57 56 61 61 62 57 59 55 57 55 51 54 54 53 57 54 49 49 52 53 52 52 47 48 46 46 46 41 38 38 34 10 8 12 13 11 12 9 11 11 13 13 13 15 15 10 16 11 13 13 15 15 13 13 13 12 10 12 15 13 12 12 13 13 13 10 13 13 12 NA 41 45 42 41 44 42 50 41 46 43 48 48 47 43 49 39 46 41 38 39 39 41 44 41 37 39 40 38 39 40 36 35 33 33 35 27 25 26 NA 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 6 3. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) I'm going to read a list of possible candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 9/10/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop: Donald Trump Ben Carson Jeb Bush Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Rand Paul Mike Huckabee John Kasich Carly Fiorina Scott Walker Chris Christie ---------- 2015 --------9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 34 23 5 NA 18 6 7 7 10 13 13 20 7 4 7 13 6 9 9 7 4 6 11 9 3 7 9 8 3 2 3 1 2 * 2 1 2 11 11 12 1 4 5 6 3 ---------- 2014 ----------12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 NA NA NA NA 7 6 NA NA 15 15 14 18 8 4 6 12 6 8 7 10 11 12 14 11 6 11 13 NA 2 2 2 NA NA NA NA NA 6 1 5 NA 8 7 10 13 Bobby Jindal Rick Perry Rick Santorum Jim Gilmore Lindsey Graham George Pataki Paul Ryan Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion 1 1 1 * * * NA 2 2 2 3 2 3 1 NA * 2 NA 1 5 1 2 1 2 3 NA 1 1 NA * 1 1 6 1 2 2 NA 1 NA NA 1 3 1 4 3 5 3 NA NA NA 11 * 2 * 7 2 6 3 NA NA NA 8 1 3 1 10 1 6 NA NA NA NA 11 1 4 * 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 20 2 4 1 9 Among reg voters: --------- 2015 ---------9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 Donald Trump 33 24 4 NA Ben Carson 20 6 8 6 Jeb Bush 8 12 10 21 Ted Cruz 7 4 8 12 Marco Rubio 7 7 10 8 Rand Paul 5 6 11 8 Mike Huckabee 3 8 9 8 John Kasich 3 2 3 1 Carly Fiorina 2 * 2 1 Scott Walker 2 13 11 13 Chris Christie 1 3 6 7 Bobby Jindal 1 2 * 1 Rick Perry 1 4 2 1 Rick Santorum 1 1 4 2 Lindsey Graham * * 1 1 George Pataki * 1 1 NA Jim Gilmore 0 NA NA NA Paul Ryan NA NA NA NA Other (vol.) 1 * * 1 None of these (vol.) 1 4 2 3 Would not vote (vol.) 1 1 1 1 No opinion 3 2 5 4 ---------- 2014 ----------12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 NA NA NA NA 8 7 NA NA 14 13 12 18 8 4 7 12 7 8 6 10 10 12 15 11 7 12 14 NA 2 2 1 NA NA NA NA NA 7 2 5 NA 7 8 9 14 3 2 2 NA 5 6 5 NA 3 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11 9 12 18 * 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 * 0 * 1 6 9 5 9 4. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) I'm going to read a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 9/10/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop: Hillary Clinton Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Martin O'Malley Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb Andrew Cuomo Brian Schweitzer Elizabeth Warren Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion ---------- 2015 --------9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 46 62 63 66 21 14 14 11 20 14 9 4 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 NA 1 2 2 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11 1 2 2 * 4 2 3 1 2 1 1 1 4 2 2 3 4 ---------- 2014 12/14 10/12 63 65 14 13 4 1 1 1 NA NA 3 3 NA NA NA NA 11 10 * 0 1 2 1 * 2 5 ---------6/1 1/23 66 73 12 12 2 NA 1 NA NA NA 2 NA 2 NA 1 NA 7 8 0 1 2 2 * * 4 3 Among reg voters: Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Martin O'Malley Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb Andrew Cuomo Brian Schweitzer Elizabeth Warren Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion ---------- 2015 --------9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 42 63 62 66 24 14 10 5 21 12 14 12 2 1 3 * 1 * 1 NA 1 2 1 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 12 1 2 2 * 5 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 ---------- 2014 12/14 10/12 61 64 4 1 14 13 * 1 NA NA 3 2 NA NA NA NA 13 11 * 0 1 3 1 0 2 5 ---------6/1 1/23 69 73 2 NA 12 11 2 NA NA NA 1 NA 2 NA 1 NA 7 9 0 * 2 3 0 * 2 4 5. (ASKED OF LEANED BIDEN SUPPORTERS) Who would your second choice be? Which candidate would you lean toward as your second choice? 9/10/15 – NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - Among gen pop 9/10/15 7/19/15 Hillary Clinton 59 69 Bernie Sanders 24 15 Martin O'Malley 2 2 Jim Webb 2 4 Lincoln Chafee 1 1 Other (vol.) 1 2 None of these (vol.) 4 3 Would not vote (vol.) 2 1 No opinion 5 3 --- Among RVs --9/10/15 7/19/15 Hillary Clinton 56 68 Bernie Sanders 28 16 Martin O'Malley 3 2 Jim Webb 2 5 Lincoln Chafee 1 1 Other (vol.) 1 2 None of these (vol.) 5 3 Would not vote (vol.) 1 1 No opinion 4 3 6. If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were (Hillary Clinton, the Democrat) and (Donald Trump, the Republican), for whom would you vote? Would you lean toward (Clinton) or toward (Trump)? NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE - GEN POP 9/10/15 Hillary Clinton 51 Donald Trump 39 Other (vol.) 1 Neither (vol.) 5 Would not vote (vol.) 4 No opinion 1 Neither (vol.) 6 Would not vote (vol.) 4 No opinion 1 NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE – RVs 9/10/15 Hillary Clinton 46 Donald Trump 43 Other (vol.) 1 5 7. (HALF SAMPLE) As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. International inspectors would monitor Iran’s facilities, and if Iran is caught breaking the agreement economic sanctions would be imposed again. Do you support or oppose this agreement? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 7/19/15 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 51 31 20 56 31 25 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 41 6 35 37 7 30 No opinion 8 7 Compare to: Thinking now about the situation with Iran – would you support or oppose an agreement in which the United States and other countries would lift major economic sanctions against Iran, in exchange for Iran restricting its nuclear program in a way that makes it harder for it to produce nuclear weapons? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 3/29/15 59 34 25 11/17/13* 64 NA NA *"... would lift some of their economic -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 31 8 23 30 NA NA sanctions..." No opinion 10 7 8. (HALF SAMPLE) As you may know, the U.S. and other countries have announced a deal to lift economic sanctions against Iran in exchange for Iran agreeing not to produce nuclear weapons. Do you support or oppose this agreement? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 45 24 21 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 44 12 32 No opinion 11 On another subject, 9. Do you think most people in politics can or cannot be trusted? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 -------- Trusted -------NET Strongly Somewhat 23 5 18 ------ Not trusted -----NET Somewhat Strongly 72 24 48 No opinion 5 10. Do you think the current political system in the United States is basically functional or basically dysfunctional? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 ------- Functional------NET Strongly Somewhat 33 12 21 ---- Not functional ----NET Somewhat Strongly 64 18 46 No opinion 3 11a. When thinking about the kind of person you’d like to see as the next president, which of these is more important to you - (someone with experience in how the political system works) or (someone from outside the existing political establishment)? 9/10/15 Experience in how the political system works 56 Outside the existing political establishment 40 6 No opinion 4 11b. When thinking about the kind of person you’d like to see as the next president, which of these is more important to you - (someone who wants to fix the current political system) or (someone who wants to tear it down and start over)? 9/10/15 Fix current system 76 Tear it down 21 Leave it alone (vol.) 1 No opinion 3 Thinking about Donald Trump... 12. Given what you’ve heard or read about them, would you say you support or oppose Trump’s proposals on immigration? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/10/15 -------- Support--------NET Strongly Somewhat 34 21 13 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 57 12 45 No opinion 9 13. Regardless of whether or not you’d vote for him, do you think Trump is or is not qualified to serve as president? 9/10/15 Is qualified 37 Is not qualified 60 No opinion 2 14. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Trump, or not: 9/10/15 - Summary Table a. He is honest and trustworthy b. He understands the problems of people like you c. He has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president Yes 35 29 No 59 67 33 63 No opinion 6 4 4 Now thinking about Hillary Clinton... 15. Please tell me whether the following statement applies to Clinton, or not: 9/10/15 - Summary Table a. She is honest and trustworthy b. She understands the problems of people like you c. She has the kind of personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president Trend where available: a. She is honest and trustworthy 9/10/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 6/1/14 4/13/08 5/15/06 Yes 39 41 46 53 39 52 No 56 52 46 42 58 42 No opinion 5 7 7 5 3 6 b. She understands the problems of people like you Yes No No opinion 7 Yes 39 46 No 56 51 No opinion 5 4 56 41 3 9/10/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 6/1/14 5/15/06 46 49 47 54 54 51 46 48 41 43 4 5 5 5 3 c. No trend 16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling questions about her use of personal e-mail while she was secretary of state? 9/10/15 5/31/15 Approve 34 31 Disapprove 55 55 No opinion 11 14 17. Do you think Clinton’s use of personal e-mail while she was secretary of state is or is not a legitimate issue in next year’s presidential election? 9/10/15 5/31/15 Legitimate 44 48 Not legitimate 49 45 No opinion 6 7 18. Given what you’ve heard or read about it, do you think Clinton (stayed within government regulations) in her use of personal e-mail, or do you think she (broke government regulations)? 9/10/15 Stayed within regulations 32 Broke regulations 51 No opinion 18 19. Do you think Clinton has (honestly disclosed the facts) about her use of personal e-mail while secretary of state or has (tried to cover up the facts)? 9/10/15 Honestly disclosed 34 Cover up the facts 54 No opinion 11 Changing topics, 20. In general, when there’s a conflict between (someone’s religious beliefs) and (the need to treat everyone equally under the law), which do you think is more important? 9/10/15 Religious beliefs 19 Equal under the law 74 No opinion 6 21. As you may know, the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that gay and lesbian couples have the right to marry. Nonetheless a county clerk in Kentucky has refused to issue marriage licenses to gay and lesbian couples, saying she objects on religious grounds. Do you think this county clerk should or should not be required to issue marriage licenses to gay and lesbian couples? 9/10/15 Required to issue 63 Not required to issue 33 No opinion 4 22. (IF REQUIRED) A judge has sent this county clerk to jail for failing to comply with his order to issue these marriage licenses. Do you support or oppose the judge’s action in this case? 8 9/10/15 Support 72 Oppose 25 No opinion 3 21/22 NET: 9/10/15 ------- Required to issue -----Support Oppose No NET judge judge opinion 63 45 16 2 Not required to issue 33 No opinion 4 ATTEND. (ASKED OF CATHOLICS) Aside from weddings and funerals, how often if ever do you attend religious services: at least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, less often than that, or never? 9/10/15 At least 1 per week 33 Almost every wk 12 Once per month 19 Less often than that 28 Never 7 No opinion * 23. Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the Catholic Church? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? All: ------- Favorable ------------ Unfavorable -----NET Strongly Somewhat NET Somewhat Strongly 9/10/15 55 22 33 30 18 12 12/8/13 62 24 38 30 20 10 2/17/13 62 26 35 28 16 13 4/24/05 56 NA NA 36 NA NA 2/22/04 54 33 10/13/03 48 44 12/15/02 40 52 6/17/02 45 47 6/9/02 47 45 3/28/02 55 34 2/20/02 63 27 8/30/99* 68 " " 19 " " *Wash Post/Kaiser/Harvard, asked "very/somewhat" follow No opinion 15 8 10 8 13 8 8 9 7 11 11 13 Catholics: 9/10/15 12/8/13 2/17/13 4/24/05 2/22/04 10/13/03 12/15/02 6/17/02 6/9/02 3/28/02 2/20/02 ------- Favorable ------NET Strongly Somewhat 81 47 34 95 62 34 86 56 30 81 NA NA 87 80 69 69 70 73 88 " " ------ Unfavorable -----NET Somewhat Strongly 15 11 4 4 4 0 11 7 3 17 NA NA 10 17 30 28 28 24 9 " " No opinion 4 1 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 3 4 24. (ASKED OF CATHOLICS) In general, do you think the Catholic Church is in touch with the views of Catholics in America today, or is it out of touch? 9/10/15 3/10/13* 4/13/08 In touch 56 34 34 Out of touch 43 60 62 No opinion 1 7 4 9 4/24/05 44 10/13/03 34 10/1/95 38 *2013 and previous: Roman 52 4 62 3 58 5 Catholic Church 25. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Pope Francis? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? All: ------- Favorable ------NET Strongly Somewhat 9/10/15 70 44 26 12/8/13 69 36 33 2/17/13* 54 22 32 4/13/08* 48 NA NA 3/13/05** 67 10/13/03 65 1/13/98 71 10/1/95 64 8/8/93 68 8/23/87 51 *Pope Benedict XVI **2005 and previous: Pope John Paul the ------ Unfavorable -----NET Somewhat Strongly 13 8 5 14 9 5 27 17 10 24 NA NA 16 24 10 20 12 8 No opinion 17 16 19 28 17 11 19 16 20 41 Second Catholics: 9/10/15 12/8/13 2/17/13* 4/13/08* 3/13/05** 10/13/03 10/1/95 8/23/87 ------- Favorable ------NET Strongly Somewhat 86 74 12 92 63 29 76 43 33 74 NA NA 87 84 83 76 ------ Unfavorable -----NET Somewhat Strongly 9 4 5 4 3 1 14 8 6 13 NA NA 8 11 10 4 No opinion 5 3 9 14 5 5 7 20 26. Do you approve or disapprove of the direction in which Pope Francis is leading the Catholic Church? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? All: -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 64 38 26 64 31 34 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 13 7 6 14 8 5 No opinion 23 22 Catholics: -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 9/10/15 89 70 19 12/8/13 85 54 31 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 8 4 3 7 4 2 No opinion 3 9 9/10/15 12/8/13 27. (ASKED OF CATHOLICS) Do you think the pope is (changing traditional church policies on important issues), or is he (keeping traditional church policies pretty much the same)? 9/10/15 Changing policies 66 Keeping policies the same 29 10 No opinion 5 28. Pope Francis will be speaking to a joint session of the U.S. Congress this month. In that address, do you think it would or would not be appropriate for the pope to urge government action on social, economic, and environmental issues? 9/10/15 All Catholics Appropriate 59 67 Not appropriate 31 27 No opinion 10 6 29. More generally, would you like to see Pope Francis become more active on social, economic, and environmental issues, less active or continue as he has been? 9/10/15 All Catholics More active 23 30 Less active 14 13 Continue 54 52 No opinion 9 4 30. The O.J. Simpson case occurred 20 years ago. A criminal court jury found Simpson not guilty of charges that he killed his wife and a friend of hers. A civil court jury later said Simpson was responsible for these killings. What’s your own opinion – do you think Simpson was definitely guilty, probably guilty, probably not guilty, or definitely not guilty of these murders? ---------- Guilty --------NET Definitely Probably 76 38 39 83 44 39 57 17 40 9/10/15 All Whites Blacks ------- Not guilty -------NET Probably Definitely 9 7 2 6 5 2 24 17 7 No opinion 14 11 19 Compare to: 2007 (Washington Post): And thinking back about a decade, a jury found O.J. Simpson NOT guilty in the murders of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman. Regardless of the verdict, what is your opinion of the case now? Do you think Simpson was definitely guilty, probably guilty, probably not guilty, or definitely not guilty? 1997 and previous: Whether you agree with the jury or not, do you think Simpson is definitely guilty, probably guilty, probably not guilty, or definitely not guilty of these murders? ---------- Guilty --------NET Definitely Probably ------- Not guilty -------NET Probably Definitely All: 9/10/15 9/23/07 2/4/97* 10/5/95 10/3/95 9/27/95 7/17/95 3/19/95 1/29/95 1/9/95 7/20/94 76 67 74 62 63 68 71 63 59 65 57 38 31 34 29 29 31 29 20 17 18 10 39 37 41 33 34 37 42 43 41 48 47 9 19 19 33 30 26 24 27 32 23 27 7 11 14 20 17 18 16 20 22 18 20 2 8 6 14 13 8 8 7 11 5 7 14 14 7 4 7 6 6 10 9 12 16 Whites: 9/10/15 9/23/07 2/4/97* 10/5/95 10/3/95 9/27/95 7/17/95 3/19/95 83 74 82 69 70 77 78 69 44 33 39 32 33 35 32 20 39 41 43 37 37 41 46 48 6 13 12 27 24 18 16 21 5 8 9 18 15 14 12 16 2 5 3 9 9 4 3 4 11 13 7 5 6 5 6 11 11 No opinion 1/29/95 1/9/95 7/20/94 66 70 63 19 20 11 47 51 52 24 18 20 17 15 17 7 3 3 10 12 17 Blacks: 9/10/15 57 17 9/23/07 45 22 2/4/97* 31 3 10/5/95 16 6 10/3/95 18 4 9/27/95 20 5 7/17/95 22 5 3/19/95 20 6 1/29/95 18 8 1/9/95 26 1 7/20/94 22 3 *"of these murders" added 40 23 28 10 14 15 17 14 10 26 19 24 40 62 81 74 72 71 72 78 60 65 17 25 37 36 33 47 39 45 42 38 36 7 14 25 45 41 24 31 28 36 22 30 19 16 7 4 8 9 7 7 5 13 13 Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 12/14/14 10/26/14 10/12/14 9/7/14 Democrat 33 30 30 30 30 26 32 31 33 Republican 22 21 22 22 24 23 24 24 23 Independent 35 39 36 38 37 41 36 36 38 Other (vol.) 5 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 No opinion 4 4 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 ***END*** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and ABC News. The poll is a random sample of the continental United States, not including Alaska and Hawaii, with interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document, other than the party identification question which was asked after question 2. Demographics and questions on voter registration, religious identity and worship attendance not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among registered voters. A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landlines cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 351 interviews completed on landlines and 652 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 387 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for differential chances of being selected due to landline and cellular phone access and household size. Weighting also corrects for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. 12 The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education, and race/ethnicity according to Census estimates. The sample is also weighted to match phone estimates of the share of the population who are cell phone-only, landline-only and mixed user populations according to the National Health Interview Survey. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.25 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered voters Leaned Democrats Leaned Republicans Registered Leaned Dems Registered Leaned Reps Catholics Unweighted sample size 1,003 818 443 399 355 342 218 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 4 5 5.5 6 6 7.5 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. 13