Federal Voting Preferences in Manitoba



 September 201 5

 

Survey Methodology
 This province-wide survey was designed and conducted by Probe Research Inc. via
telephone interviews conducted between September 14th and 23rd, 2015 among a random
and representative sampling of 1,000 Manitoba adults.
 With a sample of 1,000, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results are within +/3.1 percentage points of what they would have been if the entire adult population of
Manitoba had been interviewed. The margin-of-error is higher within each of the survey’s
population sub-groups.
 Modified random-digit dialing was used to ensure that all Manitoba adults would have an
equal opportunity to participate in this Probe Research survey.
 Minor statistical weighting by age, gender and previous voting behaviour has been applied
to this sample to ensure that it corresponds with the province as a whole.

For more information, please contact:
Curtis Brown, Vice-President
Probe Research Inc.
(204) 926-6563 (tel)
(204) 250-7410 (cell)
curtis@probe-research.com

…for what you need to know

 Federal Party Support in Manitoba
“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you be most likely to support?”
60%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Green Party

53%

42%

43%
39%

40%
39%
29%
26%

32%
22%

23%
18%

20%
17%
4%

4%

5%

4%

0%
2011 Election
Base: All respondents

Sept. 2013 (n=1,000)

June 2015 (n=1,000)

Sept. 2015 (n=1,000)

 Federal Party Support
-By Region “If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support?”

2011 Election

June 2015 (n=600)

Sept. 2015 (n=600)

2011 Election

June 2015 (n=400)

Sept. 2015 (n=400)

80%

80%

64%

60%

60%
47%

53%
49%

42%

40%

36%

33%

40%

34%
23%

33%

27%27%

22%

21%

16%
13%

20%

20%

24%

7%
4%

3% 3% 3%

7% 5%

0%

0%
CPC

LPC

NDP

- WINNIPEG -

Base: Decided Voters

Greens

CPC

LPC

NDP

- NON-WINNIPEG -

Greens

 Federal Party Support
- By Winnipeg Region Northwest (n=123)
CPC: 41%
LPC: 35%
NDP: 17%
Green: 6%

Core (n=116):
LPC: 41%
NDP: 38%
CPC: 18%
Green: 1%

Northeast (n=110):
CPC: 39%
LPC: 32%
NDP: 27%
Green: 1%

Southwest (n=138):
LPC: 46%
CPC: 39%
NDP: 14%
Green: 1%

Base: Decided Voters
*Caution: Small Base

Southeast (n=113):
LPC: 53%
CPC: 24%
NDP: 15%
Green: 6%

 Federal Party Support in Manitoba
- Across Socio-Demographic Sub-Groups “If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support?”
Total

Gender

Age

(n=1,000)
(%)

Male
(n=485)
(%)

Female
(n=515)
(%)

18-34
(n=218)
(%)

35-54
(n=363)
(%)

55+
(n=382)
(%)

CPC

39

38

40

22

40

48

LPC

39

39

38

54

38

30

NDP

18

18

18

16

20

18

Greens

4

3

4

7

2

4

Education

Income

HS or Less
(n=284)
(%)

Some PS
(n=188)
(%)

Univ./College
(n=518)
(%)

<$30K
(n=130)
(%)

$30K-$59K
(n=204)
(%)

$60K-$99K
(n=257)
(%)

$100K+
(n=216)
(%)

CPC

50

32

37

27

43

38

40

LPC

29

47

40

48

32

38

41

NDP

16

17

19

21

19

17

16

Greens

4

4

4

3

4

7

1

 Party Vote Retention, 2011 vs. Today
PREFERRED PARTY, 2011 ELECTION
Conservative (n=325)

Current Party
Preference

NDP (n=166)

Liberal (n=129)

(%)

Conservative

70

3

3

Liberal

16

39

65

4

44

10

Greens

<1

4

4

Undecided/Refused

10

10

17

NDP

 Party Support Among Indigenous and
Non-Indigenous Manitobans
“If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party's candidate would you be most likely to support?”

CPC

LPC

NDP

Green

100%

80%

60%
44%

42%

37%

40%

31%
22%
16%

20%

4%

2%
0%

Indigenous (n=131)
Base: Decided Voters

Non-Indigenous (n=865)

 Impact of Long Election on Voting
Intentions
Q.11 “The current federal election campaign is the longest campaign in several decades, as it was called in early
August, with Canadians going to the polls on October 19th. Does the longer campaign period make
you…?” (n=1,000)
Liberal: 15%
NDP: 13%
Conservative: 8%

More motivated to
vote, 10%

Unsure, 4%
Makes no
difference, 72%

Less motivated to
vote, 13%

 Attention Paid to the Mike Duffy Trial
Q.12. “How closely would you say you have been following the trial of former Conservative Senator Mike Duffy?
Would you say very closely, somewhat closely, not very closely or not at all?” (n=1,000)
100%

Also higher among older
adults aged 55+ (59% vs.
30% among those 18-34)

Somewhat closely
Very closely

80%

64%
58%
60%

48%

47%
45%

40%

43%
37%

39%

20%

11%

8%

15%

19%

0%
Total

CPC supporters

LPC supporters

NDP supporters

- % of those who have been following the trial very/somewhat closely Base: All Respondents

 Duffy Trial’s Impact on Voting Conservative
- By Party Supported in 2011 Election Q.11 “Does the information that has been reported from the Mike Duffy trial make you… ?” (n=1,000)

Overall

CPC

LPC

NDP

100%

80%
68%

66%
57%

60%
48%

49%
42%

40%

31%

29%

20%
1%

4%

0%

0%

0%
Makes no difference

Less likely to vote CPC

More likely to vote CPC