UHIRSA Rcl': 1'38 I it September 2n] I THIS HAS BEEN IN CDHFIDENCE TO TIME. RECIPIENT FIND SI HOT HE RELEASED UT THF. AGREEM OF THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT . THE BRITISH SECRET INTELLIGENCE. SERVICE MEET BE REFERRED it'?i?t? ACTIDN IS TAKEN ON THIS INFORMATION PREWIIJED IN THIS TELEGRAPH MUST EDT BE TO THE INDIVIDUALS WE WOULD ?u'titt?i? IF THE Iii-?13 (It REVEALED rhhi?t' THE ELUW INIJI WHETHER DR NOT ACFIUN IS TAKEN AGAINST 0F JUDITH CELIA BEGINS Dn ll] September 203 I. British national Judith {fetid 'l?ehhnn ms li?t'ln'l the Kin-aye Safari in Lame. Kenya. Jndith?s husband. David {idrtlen was killed in the attack. SIS assess the int-tighten; ef the hidnnp wen: men-there eff-.1 Simbe eer partners. 313 are attempting to lactate Judith and identify her centers. We wenld welceme any remittance that service mutt! lire-tri?e. We are cap-acidity interested in: exact lemtien nf?Judith, how is site being held, in circumstances? how it; the being. moved. it?thcy are still muting. Wild in helding her? hew mun}- mujnllireen? Entiennlitiet?? what is lite capability and intent of the grant: ?elding her? ?in at are the Iinhs cf the group to AI Senier Foreign ?ghters? the abduction? 31h-hav-ilti'whave prueitlcd betew tnn' current intelligence picture: INTRODUCTION i. ("In It] September 201 I, Briton David Gordan 'I?ehbult and his wit": Judith Celia cbhutt were attacked in their hnlel near Lame, an the Kenyan titJtISl near the Sumnli hurder. David 'l?chbnil was shot and killed In skirmish with and Judith Tclitiutt was abducted. Der early is that militants linked to tit-Shath are reapensihlc tier the kidnapping. 2. The couple were staying. at Itiwnyu Safari Village (K5 V). a reitan near Lame. 43km item the Somali bender. It is thought that Judith has bitten int-ten in Fine it. email inside Somali? border. Wejndge that Judith Tebbutt will have been to Settialin. commander Kahalc Femnu [Chile it: believed to have: been involved in the murder til" Dnvid Tebbun and kidnap ei'ieditit Tebbun. Ethnic has previously expressed a desire to kidnap from 0n 9 - September, Kittie was rennecdiy heated in line near the Kmei?omnli border. latest suggests that en the morning of II September. seven individnnis and a female were seen bedrtting at speed bent in Rat Hnmbeni. We the t?cmate It lilter in he Identical with Judith SECRET Tebbutt. Kenyan National Security and Intelligence Service (NSIS) assessment was that the boat was destined for Kismayn, Reference source not found. While uncon?rmed, this strengthens our assessment that Judith Tebbutt has been taken to Somalia. PREVIOUS THREATS T0 KIWAYU SAFARI VILLAGE. 5. There is a substantial body of reporting dating back to 2008 of Shabnab commander Kahale h?amau Khalc's desire to kidnap western tourists from hotels in Lama including the Kiwnyu Safari Village. 6. in November 2008 four Shabaab militiamen were arrested near the hotel where they had apparently been obscwing the hotel. The Kenyan National Security Intelligence Agency (N518) at the time assessed that the militiamen were conducting reconnaissance to determine the security presence, and believed that they may have been planning to kidnap westerners or senior Kenyan government of?cials. 7. Since this incident in 2008. there has been periodic interest from Kbalc in abducting western tourists from the RSV. in February 20I l, Khalc had tasked Shabanb associates to monitor tourism cruises around the Luntu archipelago with the intention of abducting. westh tourists to hold them for ransom in Somalia. Further reporting from March 2011 suggests that Khale had expressed an interest in stealing a dhow that could transport kidnapped tourists to Ras Kamboni in one and a half houm, rather than taking a whole day. 8. intelligence front 20l0 speci?cally indicated Khnle's desire to kidnap western women from RSV. Khale believed that authorities would make more effort to secure the release of a woman. 9. in February 20l0, the Kenyan security services partially disrupted an apparent Sitahnab kidnap attempt against westerners at the RSV. A group of Shabaab ?ghters planned to target fanales at the RSV, believing that they would grow weak in captivity and thus expedite the payment of a ransom. The group were engaged by Kenyan General Scwice Unit ((5813) of?cers and though the guide for the group was arrested the ntilitants fled the scene. KAUALE FAMAU KHALE - 10. Kahalc Famttu Kltale (Khalc) aka Abdul Ghafur Luqu Ahmed is a Kenyan senior Shabattb commander based in Somalia. He was an associate of deceased Al Qaida operative Salch Nahhan and more recently has been involved in the facilitation of foreign ?ghters from Kenya into Somalia. Whilst he has his-tone links to Al Qaida we assess that here he was acting under the auspices ol'tlte Shabaab. SHABAAB KIDNAP MODUS OPERANDI ll. The coastline between Mombasa and the Somali border is used as a facilitation route for Shabaab with local boat captains being paid to transport people and materiel from coastal towns in Kenya to the Somali border. Within Somalia we judge that there is a high risk to westerners of kidnap/attack by various Somali militia groups. This risk extends to westerners in the Shabaab?s operating area in Kenya. near the Somali border. WESTERNERS BY SOMALI GROUPS 12. There is often ambiguity around the sponsors of kidnap operations involving western hostages and whether they are as a result of the actions of Somali pirates, or masterminded by the Shabaab. There have been a handful of recent kidnappings of westerners: a South African were kidnapped in November 2010, and a British couple in October 2009. off the coast of Somalia which we assess to be the work of Somali pirates; two French officials were kidnapped in July 2009. which we assess to be the actions ot'lhc Shabaab. in 2008, a Briton and a Kenyan, a Canadian and Australian, and two ltalians were also kidnapped from Somalia in separate incidents; the perpetrators of these attack remain unclear. Shabaah modus operandl t3. There is limited and conflicting reporting regarding the modus operandi ot?the Shabaab for its kidnap operations. Demands for release, and the security arrangements in which hostages are kept. vary between hostages. 'this suggests that the Shabaab has not yet developed a strategy for hostage negotiation. 14. Demands: 'lherc are con?icting reports regarding the demands made by the Shahaub for provides hostages: intelligence indicates that these have ranged from large ransom payments to demands for the release of extremist prisoners. In the case of Briton Robert Murray-Watson, kidnapped in April 2008 in south-central Somalia. the demands were ?nancial. Intelligence at the time indicated that if no substantial ransom payment was received Murray-Watson would be killed. it is not clear whether Murray-Watson was killed. or died of natural causes or is still alive. if he were killed by the Shabaab. it is likely that the group would have used this for propaganda purposes. However. it remains unclear as to whether this was a Shabaab kidnap operation. is. The Shabnab was responsible for the kidnap of two French of?cials in July 2009. one of whom escaped and the other remains captive. intelligence indicates that there were con?icting demands for their release between the Shah-tab and liizb Al-lslam: the Shabaah reportedly favoured the release of imprisoned extremists in exchange for the omeial's safe release, whereas the latter favoured a large ransom payment. There have been some indications that the Slrabnab has been under financial strain. Reporting from mid August suggested that lack offends contributed to the Shubaab's withdrawal from Mogadishu. Shabaab leaders ascribed this shortfall in funding to the death of Usama bin Lndin in May 20? and the current instability in Yemen. There was also widespread opinion in the that fereign ?nancial support for the Shabaab had decreased over the last year. This ?nancial pressure is likely to have been a driving factor behind any kidnap plans. \chudge that the Shahaah are likely to seek ransom payments for Judith 'l'cbbutt. I8. mnespans: Given the con?icting and inconsistent reporting around the kidnappings of westerners and their associated demands, there is very little Information regarding the timcspan between a hostage being taken and demands being made. 19. Security? Reporting on previous kidnaps indicates that hostages are frequently moved around and sometimes held separate locations: in the ease of the two French oit?iclttis taken in July 2009. both were held in separate locations and were reportedly moved to a different location every night. However. there are also discrepancies in the Shahaab's reported modus operandi: reporting from 2008 indicated that Murray- Walson and his fellow Kenyan hostage were kept together with two ltalian hostages. However. the kidnappers did reportedly move camp on a regular basis around the Merca. Jilib, Bamwe. Xaranka area. Furthermore. there were reportedly between 10 and 15 men guarding the hostages who were armed and had two vehicles. 20. Threat to life: We assess it to he likely that the Shnbaab would consider killing a hostage if negotiations are not concluded to their satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS 2i. This is a rcintivclv audacious attack for the Shabaab and would con?rm their willinaness to conduct 22. The Shabaab do not: have a cohesive plan for dealing with hostages. This makes it ditlieult to predict how the Sitabe will deal with Judith 'l?cbbutt We. that she is likely to be in Somalia and the Shitth are likely to seek runwm payments. 23. We assess that the Shabaab is under ?nancial pressure and this may increase the attractiveness ot abduCting westerners for financial gain. Kidnap attempts on are likely to be in remote areas and in locations with easy access to either land transport or boats for rapid tramfer back to Somalia. particularly in areas when: the Shubaab may perceive security to be reduced compared to major resorts. 24. The country threat level for Kenya remains unchanged at SEVERE, re?ecting our assessment that attach: arc hiahlv likely. Sector threat levels remain unchanged.