?Political cart I
before a scienti?c horse

The Clinton administration has released a
-dralt overview ol the purported potential at.
tools 01 climate change on speci?c U.S. geo-
graphic regions and economic seClors. it's
called the National Assessment 
Report- Such an assessment would be ol
great value to policymakers and the public it
it were enable to produce an accurate one.
But as drn'iate scientists will tell you. we cur-

places does not mean they are acmrate.
The overview raped was released even
though most of the underlying reports and
analyses are not yet available for scientific
peer review er public comment. Important
cautions and caveats from academrc author-
lines are buried in detailed language that
makes it easy for key scientific uncertainties
to be missed and for conclusions to be mis-

 

rently have neither the
knowledge nor the tools
to do that.

The report bases
many of its conclusions
on two climate-"models
developed in Canada and
the United Kingdom.
Climate models are evolv-

CIimate models
are currently
unsuitable for

making national
assessments.

understood or misrepre-
sented.

So why base the re-
port on unrdiable models.
and why release it now?
The report?s language and
10ng appear designed to
emphasize selective re-
sults to convince people

 

ing maerch tools but are
not ?ll capable of predicting Earth?s global
dimate and are currently unsuitable tor mak-
ing national or regional assessments. Pro-
fessor Freeman J. Dyson of Princeton's
institute for Advanced Study said it best at
the Mardl 1999 AmeriCan Physical Society
Centennial Meeting: 'mhe climate models
on which so much alien is expanded are un-
must continue to warn the
politicians and the public. don?t believe the
- numbers just because they come out at a
superman?Mar.?- . .

Today's global models simply don't
workatthemgional Ravel. Forexatmle. one
ot the report modelssays the Great Lakes'
water level will be ?ve teal lower; the other
says it will be one tool higher. One model
says most at the country will be wetter: the
other says it will be drier. Even apparent
agreement between the medals in some

that climate change will
adversely impact their lives. In releasing this
report. the administration seeks to gain sup-
port for its own policies. which could dam-

age the economy and employment while

accomplishing little in addressing potential
long?term climate risks. The report is written
as a political document. not an objective
sunrrlaly ol the underlying science-

We mange is an inmonant public
issr.re.That 
further climate research, the development
and encouragement of promising technol-
ogy. the promotion of more efficient use of
energy. the remmal'of barriers to innovation.
and cost-bene?t assessments of proposed

Sound science and policy are at the
care ot this approach. which should never
become the horse behind amrone's politiw



EgonMobil'



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