Q3  Mission  2016:  Campaign  Briefing   with   Jeb  2016  Senior  Staff   October  26,  2015   1   Welcome State of the Race Sally Bradshaw eb' 16. 5  things  you  need  to  know   right  now….     1-­‐  Press  obsession  with  process   will  not  determine  primary   outcome     2-­‐  Race  will  remain  fluid  for  some   Ime  because…  voters  have  A.D.D.     3-­‐  Fundamentals  maNer     4-­‐  Cash  maNers     5-­‐  Discipline  maNers                                           Press  obsession  with  process  will  not  determine  primary   outcome…..   Daily  Mail,  From  February  25,  2015:   Sco=  Walker  grabs  early  GOP  front-­‐ runner  status,  pulling  away  from  the   field  and  crushing  Jeb  Bush     CNBC,  From  July  7,  2015:     Why  Chris  ChrisJe  may  have  an  edge   in  GOP  race     Race  will  remain  fluid  for  some  Ime  because…voters  have  A.D.D.     Voters  Have  Not  Decided  Yet   Average  Number  of  Candidates  Being  Considered   6   6   6   May   August   October   5   February   Number  Considering   5   TargetPoint  ConsulJng.  Conducted  September  29-­‐October  1,  2015.    829  Autodial  Phone  Interviews  NaJonwide  with  Likely  GOP  Primary  Voters.       On  October  25  of  the  prior  year  —         2004  CYCLE       Wesley  Clark  leads  the  DemocraJc  field  by  5  points.  He'll  lead  for  1  more  day.         2008  CYCLE     Hillary  Clinton  leads  the  DemocraJc  field  by  26.3  points.  She'll  lead  for  111  more  days.       Rudy  Giuliani  leads  the  Republican  field  by  10.2  points.  He'll  lead  for  74  more  days.     2012  CYCLE       Herman  Cain  leads  the  Republican  field  by  1  points.  He'll  lead  for  17  more  days.     2004  polling  data  uses  polls  from  Gallup.  2008  and  2012  data  are  Real  Clear  PoliJcs  polling  averages.  Photos  are  from  the   Associated  Press.     Fundamentals  maNer….   Grassroots  Efforts     •  Eight  early  state  offices….37  early  state  staff.   •  Over  one  million  direct,  targeted  voter   contacts:   –  Over  200,000  of  which  have  been   volunteers  calls  in  the  early  states.   •  Over  1,100  endorsements.   –  Jeb  has  more  endorsements  from  Members  of  Congress  than  any   other  candidate  in  the  race,  including  the  four  sidng  U.S.  Senators   running.   •  Student  organizers  on  over  300  college  campuses  in  44  states.   •  Organizing  for  February  and  beyond….   7   Cash  MaNers….   CASH   CoH  as  of  9-­‐30   RAISED   BURN  RATE            Q3                                      YTD            Q3                                  YTD   EXPENSES              Q3                                        YTD   $10.0 mil* $13.1mil $24.8 mil 87.8% 58.6% $11.5 mil $14.5 mil $9.7 mil* $5.1 mil $14.6 mil 90.2% 52.7% $4.6 mil $7.7 mil $14.7 mil $14.2 mil $32.8 mil 86.6% 55.4% $12.3 mil $18.2 mil $1.6 mil $5.2 mil $32.1 mil 105.8% 89.1% $5.5 mil $28.6 mil *Jeb/Rubio CoH Primary $ only Discipline  MaNers….More  of  This!     "We  are  five  months  out.  Jeb  is  in  a  very  good  posiJon  on  many  levels  and  donors  like  him  for   all  the  right  reasons.  He  has  an  enviable  donor  list  -­‐  the  envy  of  the  field.  The  truth  of  the   ma=er  is  that  every  candidate  would  die  to  have  the  list  of  donors  and  resources  that  Jeb  has.”     Kent  Lucken,  CBS  But   News   10/1/15   one   Bush  fundraiser  who  requested  anonymity  to   speak  freely  said:  “It  feels  very  much  like  a  death  spiral,  and   “He  is  very  disciplined.  Out  of  all  the  presidenJal  candidates,  he  is  the  most  grown-­‐up  person.  He  is   it  breaks  my  heart.  I  don’t  know  anyone  who  wants  to   going  to  do  fine,  at  the  end  of  the  day.”  Dr.  Zachariah  Zachariah,  Miami  Herald  10/16/15   reinvest  now.”  The  campaign,  this  person  added,  has  been   “head-­‐scratchingly   ad  in  eyvery   element.   I  wbouldn’t   be  and  allocate   "This  is  a  proacJve   measure.  As  in  any  bbusiness   ou  evaluate   your   o=om  line   in  6u0  sed.   days   from   now   if  he  wasn’t   in  the  Yrou've   ace.”  got  to  do  more  with   resources  where  tshocked   hey  are  best   This   is  not   a  struggling   campaign.   less,"  is  the  message   that  was  delivered   Zeidman  said.  "I  think  this  is  a  sign  of  real  good  budgeJng   Washington   Post,  10-­‐23-­‐15   and  leadership.”  Jay  Zeidman,  CNN  Poli?cs  10-­‐24-­‐15   Campaign Update Danny Diaz 10 Opening Best Candidate. Best Record. Best Vision. 016 sb' What  They  Are  Saying   •  Hugh HewiN: “He’s  Got  The  Best  Resume  Of  Anyone  In  The  Race.”  (Meet   The  Press,  6/14/15)   •  George  Will: “His  Record  In  Florida…Was  Measuredly  More   ConservaJve  Than  That  Of  Ronald  Reagan.”  (Fox  News  Sunday,  6/14/15)   •  Fred  Barnes:  “Ater  Two  Terms  In  Office,  Bush  Was  Not  Only  The  Best   Governor  In  America,  But  Also  The  Most  ConservaJve.”  (Weekly  Standard,   3/30/15)   •  David  Drucker:  “[H]e  is  a  serious,  conservaJve  reformer  who  has  the   experience  and  temperament  to  be  an  effecJve  president  from  his  first   day  in  office.”  (Washington  Examiner,  8/7/15)     12   Jeb  Wins  Key  Segments   Independents,  Women,  Hispanics   If  The  ElecIon  For  President  Were  Being  Held  Today,  And  The  Candidates  Were  Hillary   Clinton  The  Democrat  And  Jeb  Bush  The  Republican,  For  Whom  Would  You  Vote?   ALL  VOTERS     Bush   60%   53%   44%   42%   43%   Clinton   49%   40%   42%   33%   29%   All  Voters   Independents   White  Men   White  Women   Quinnipiac.    Conducted  September  17-­‐21,  2015.    1,574  Interviews  NaJonwide  of  Registered  Voters.   Jeb  gets  highest   percentage  of   Hispanic  vote:       •  Rubio  26%   •  Carson  23%   •  Fiorina  22%   •  Trump  22%   Hispanics   13   Jeb’s  PresidenJal  QualiJes   Would  You  Say  That  Jeb  Bush…   REPUBLICANS   78%   76%   76%   63%   18%   Has  The  Right  Kind  Of   Experience  To  Be   President   19%   Is  Honest  And   Trustworthy   19%   Has  The  Right  Kind  Of   Temperament  And   Personality  To  Handle  An   InternaIonal  Crisis   Yes   No   30%   Cares  About  The   Needs  And   Problems  Of   People  Like  You   Quinnipiac.    Conducted  September  17-­‐21,  2015.    737  Interviews  NaJonwide  of  Republican  /  Republican  Leaning  Registered  Voters.   14     New  Hampshire   Primary  Ballot  Summary   Donald  Trump   Ben  Carson   Jeb  Bush   Marco  Rubio   Carly  Fiorina   John  Kasich   Chris  ChrisJe   Ted  Cruz   Rand  Paul   Mike  Huckabee   Lindsey  Graham   Rick  Santorum   Bobby  Jindal   George  Pataki   Jim  Gilmore   Someone  else  (vol.)   None  of  these  (vol.)   Unsure   Bloomberg/           FPU/Boston   Herald   Private                             St.  Anselm   Oct.  19-­‐20   Oct.  15-­‐18   Oct.  14-­‐17   26   24   28   13   17   16   10   10   9   8   8   6   4   7   10   10   7   6   3   5   3   3   4   5   4   4   5   <1   1   2   <1   1   <1   1   1   <1   0   0   1   n/a   0   0   n/a   0   -­‐-­‐   n/a   1   2   4   2   -­‐-­‐   10   9   7   NBC/WSJ/   Marist   Sept.  23-­‐30   21   10   11   10   16   6   7   6   5   1   <1   <1   <1   <1   <1    n/a    n/a   6     New  Hampshire   Primary  Image  Ra?ngs  Summary     Bloomberg/     FPU/Boston   NBC/WSJ/   Private                   Net       St.  Anselm   Net       Herald   Net       Marist   Oct.  19-­‐20   Fav   Oct.  15-­‐18   Fav   Oct.  14-­‐17   Fav   Sept.  23-­‐30   Net       Fav   Jeb  Bush   59/36/5   +23   57/39/4   +18   57/37/6   +20   58/35/7   +23   Ben  Carson   67/19/14   +48   74/14/12   +60   69/14/17   +55   69/13/17   +56   Carly  Fiorina   60/22/5   +38   67/19/14   +48   60/18/22   +42   68/17/15   +51   Marco  Rubio   62/21/17   +41   68/20/12   +48   59/19/22   +40   68/17/15   +51   Donald  Trump   57/39/5   +18   58/39/3   +19   +13   47/47/6   -­‐-­‐   55/42/3   New  Hampshire  Primary  VoJng  IntenJons   1st  &  2nd  Choice       Donald  Trump   Ben  Carson   Jeb  Bush   John  Kasich   Marco  Rubio   Carly  Fiorina   Rand  Paul   Ted  Cruz   Chris  ChrisIe   Rick  Santorum   Lindsey  Graham   Mike  Huckabee   Bobby  Jindal   None/other   Unsure   Refused        1st  Choice   2nd  Choice     1st  &  2nd  Combined     (N=500)   (N=500)   (N=500)   26%   13%   10%   10%   8%   4%   4%   3%   3%   1%   *   *   -­‐-­‐   4%   10%   2%   7%   14%   12%   5%   11%   7%   3%   6%   4%   1%   -­‐-­‐   1%   1%   10%   15%   2%   33%   27%   22%   15%   20%   12%   6%   10%   8%   1%   *   2%   1%   4%   10%   2%   *less  than  one-­‐half  of  one  percent     New  Hampshire  Percentage  Of  Jeb  Supporter   IdenJficaJons  From  Voter  Contacts   16.0%   14.0%   Sep 9: First campaign ads in NH 14.8%   2X 12.0%   10.0%   7.1%   8.0%   6.0%   4.0%   2.0%   0.0%   Aug  28-­‐Sep  3   Sep  4-­‐10   Sep  11-­‐17   Sep  18-­‐24   Sep  25-­‐Oct  1   Oct  2-­‐8   Oct  9-­‐15   18   Marco  Is  A  Risky  Bet     •  No  accomplishments,  negaJng  hit  against  Hillary  Clinton.       •  Marco’s  “tomorrow  versus  yesterday”  argument  will  be  widely  ridiculed  by  media  while   running  against  “first  woman  president.”     •  Misuse  of  state  party  credit  cards,  taxpayer  funds  and  Jes  to  scandal-­‐tarred  former   Congressman  David  Rivera  takes  away  line  of  a=ack  on  Hillary  Clinton.     •  Closeness  with  Norman  Braman,  who  doubles  as  personal  benefactor  raises  major   ethical  quesJons.     •  Outside  of  lobbying  and  legal  consulJng,  no  credible  experience  beyond  government.     •  Never  been  in  charge  of  anything  larger  than  two  dozen  people.     •  Those  who  have  looked  into  the  Marco’s  background  in  the  past  have  been  concerned   with  what  they  have  found.       19   Those  Closest  To  Marco  Choose   Jeb   •  Rubio  has  only  one  endorser  from  Florida’s  Congressional  delegaJon,   Governor  Bush  has  11.     •  Governor  Bush  has  received  the  backing  of  eight  former  Speakers  of  the   Florida  House.   •  Top  Congressional  Hispanic  Floridians  Mario  Diaz-­‐Balart,  Carlos  Curbelo  and   Ileana  Ros-­‐LehJnen  have  endorsed  Governor  Bush.   •  Twenty  out  of  26  GOP  Senators  in  Tallahassee  have  endorsed  Governor  Bush;   only  two  have  endorsed  Marco.   •  Marco’s  former  Senate  campaign  manager  and  others  close  to  him  have  also   joined  Governor  Bush’  team.       •  Marco  hasn’t  received  a  single  endorsement  from  a  fellow  U.S.  Senator.     Governor  Bush  has  been  endorsed  by  three,  as  well  as  20  House  members.     20   Experience  Ma=ers   •  We  need  to  offer  a  contrast  to  the  current  President.     Hillary  will  pitch  competence  and  experience.    Marco   is  a  GOP  Obama.       •  Rubio  and  President  Obama  have  strikingly  similar   profiles:  first-­‐term  senators,  lawyers  and  university   lecturers,  served  in  part-­‐Jme  state  legislatures  for   eight  years,  had  few  legislaJve  accomplishments,   and  haven’t  shown  much  interest  in  the  process  of   advancing  legislaJon  and  gedng  results.     21   Polling Overview Brenda Gianiny 22 New  Hampshire  Polling  Numbers     Candidate   First  Ballot  Choice   Change  since  Oct.  1   Trump   24%   +3   Carson   17%   0   Bush   10%   +1   Rubio   8%   +3   Fiorina   7%   -­‐3   Kasich   7%   -­‐1   ChrisIe   5%   +1   Cruz   4%   0   Paul   4%   0   Huckabee   1%   0   Santorum   1%   0   Graham   1%   0   Jindal   0%   0   Pataki   0%   0   Bloomberg  /  Saint  Anselm  Poll.  Conducted  October  15-­‐18,  2015.    400  Republican  Primary  Voters  in  New  Hampshire.   Real  Clear  PoliJcs  average  change.   23   Jeb  Taking  Kasich  Voters  in  NH   Under  45   Independents   Moderates   17   20   16   13   11   9   10   9   7   5   4   2   August  26-­‐ September  2   Bush   September  23-­‐30   Kasich   August  26-­‐ September  2   Bush   September  23-­‐30   Kasich   August  26-­‐ September  2   Bush   NBC/WSJ/Marist  Poll.  Conducted  September  23-­‐30,  2015.    450  PotenJal  Republican  Electorate  in  New  Hampshire.   September  23-­‐30   Kasich   24   Iowa  Polling  Numbers   Which  one  of  the  following  Republicans  would  be   your  first  choice  for  president?   Santorum,   Jindal,  2%   Kasich,  2%   2%   ChrisIe,  1%   Huckabee,   3%   Fiorina,  4%   Carson,   28%   When  it  comes  to  your  support  of  [CANDIDATE],   would  you  say  your  mind  is  made  up,  or  could  you   sIll  be  persuaded  to  name  another  nominee  as  your   first  choice?   Could  SJll  Be  Persuaded   Mind  is  Made  Up   Paul,  5%   22%   15%   78%   83%   Sample   Carson  Supporters   Bush,  5%   Rubio,  9%   Cruz,  10%   Trump,  19%   Bloomberg  PoliJcs  /  Des  Moines  Register.    Conducted  October  16-­‐19,  2015.    401  Likely  Republican  Caucus  ParJcipants  in  Iowa.   25   Jeb’s  Image  in  Iowa  Improving   Jeb  Bush  Favorability   50   50   45   43   May   45   43   Aug.   Unfavorable   48%   Of  those  currently  not   voIng  for  Bush  say  they   “could  support  him  for   president”.   Oct.   Favorable   Bloomberg  PoliJcs  /  Des  Moines  Register.    Conducted  October  16-­‐19,  2015.    401  Likely  Republican  Caucus  ParJcipants  in  Iowa.   26   NaJonwide  Ballot  Trends   I’m  going  to  read  a  list  of  people  who  may  be  running  in  the  Republican  primaries  for   president  in  2016.    Ater  I  read  all  the  names,  please  tell  me  which  of  those  candidates   you  would  be  most  likely  to  support  for  the  Republican  nominaIon  for  president  in  2016.   35%   30%   27%  Trump   25%   22%  Carson   20%   15%   10%   Trends   •  Bush  steady  (-­‐1).   •  Rubio  down  3   points.   •  Fiorina  down  11   points.   8%  Bush   8%  Rubio   4%  Fiorina   3%  Kasich   5%   0%    September  4-­‐8    September  17-­‐19    October  14-­‐17   Donald  Trump   Ben  Carson   Jeb  Bush   Marco  Rubio   Mike  Huckabee   Rand  Paul   Chris  ChrisJe   Ted  Cruz   Carly  Fiorina   John  Kasich   CNN  /  ORC.    Conducted  October  14-­‐17,  2015.    465  Interviews  NaJonwide  of  Registered  Republicans  /  Republican  Leaners.   27   Early  Polls  Are  VolaJle  –  2012  GOP   2012  Primary  Polling  in  Iowa   Carousel  of  Frontrunners:   •  August  –  Bachmann,  Romney,  and   Perry     •  September  –  Perry   •  October  –  Romney   •  November  –  Romney,  Cain,  and   Gingrich   •  December  –  Gingrich,  Romney   AggregaJon  of  2012  Polling.   28   Early  Polls  Are  VolaJle  –  2008  Dem   2008  Iowa  Polls   Obama  31%   Clinton  29%   Edwards  26%   Obama  doesn’t  take  first  Iowa   lead  unJl  just  over  one  month   before  the  Iowa  caucuses.       2008  NaIonal  Polls   Obama  53%   Clinton  41%   RealClearPoliJcs.com.    Rolling  Average  of  Most  Recent  Polls.   Obama  doesn’t  take  first   naJonal  lead  unJl  ater  Super   Tuesday.   29   No  Candidate  Has  Commi=ed  Voters   Strength  of  Ballot  Support   %  Firmly  Decided   9   Trump   Internal  Data.   5   Carson   1   2   1   2   2   Rubio   Bush   Fiorina   Cruz   Kasich   30   Top  Issues:   NaJonal  Security,  Economy,  Gov’t  Spending   Most  Important  Issue  or  Problem  when  Choosing  a  PresidenIal  Candidate   25%   20%   19%   13%   11%   7%   NaJonal  Security  /   Foreign  Policy   Internal  Data.   Jobs  and  the   Economy   Gov’t  Spending  and   Debt   Erosion  of   TradiJonal  Values   Illegal  ImmigraJon   Excessive  RegulaJon   by  Gov’t   31   NaJonal  Security:  Jeb  Is  Ready  To  Lead   Point  of  View  Closest  to  Your  Own  About  Jeb  Bush:   Unsure  /  Refused   15%   Will  strengthen  our   military  because  he’s  been   endorsed  by  13  Medal  of   Honor  recipients   Unfortunately  relies  upon   the  same  core  military  and   foreign  policy  advisors  that   his  father  and  brother   used   52%   33%   Internal  Data.   32   Jeb  Top  Pick  On  Economy   Has  Proven  Experience  CreaIng  Jobs   and  Improving  the  Economy   Jeb  Bush   29%   Carly  Fiorina   17%   Has  Proven  Experience  Balancing   Budgets,  and  Cuung  Taxes  and  Spending   Jeb  Bush   Chris  ChrisJe   35%   15%   Chris  ChrisJe   14%   Other  /  None   Other  /  None   13%   Marco  Rubio   10%   12%   Marco  Rubio   8%   John  Kasich   9%   John  Kasich   7%   Carly  Fiorina   8%   Internal  Data.   33   Jeb’s  Message  On  Spending  Works   Jeb  Bush  has  proposed  a  series  of  reforms  to  change  the  poliIcal  culture  in   Washington,  D.C.,  including  calling  for  a  Balanced  Budget  Amendment,  term  limits   and  six  year  lobbying  ban  for  former  lawmakers,  and  a  new  law  that  would  cut   Congressmen  and  Senators’  paychecks  when  they  skip  votes  or  hearings.   80%   79%   45%   47%   35%   32%   12%   48%   28%   11%   8%   Iowa   Somewhat  More  Likely   Internal  Data.   76%   9%   New   Hampshire   Much  More  Likely   Less  Likely   14%   11%   South   Carolina   No  Difference  /  Unsure  /  Refused   34   Jeb’s  Accomplishments   %  Very   Impressive     %  Impressive   As  governor,  Jeb  Bush  used  his  line  item  veto  power  year  ater   year  to  stop  more  than  $2  billion  of  wasteful  spending  by   Florida  legislators,  even  from  his  own  party.   64%   91%   Jeb  Bush  balanced  eight  budgets  while  growing  the  state’s   budget  reserves  by  $8  billion.   60%   92%   As  Governor  of  Florida,  Jeb  Bush  fought  the  teacher’s  union  to   reform  Florida  schools;  he  tripled  the  number  of  charter   schools;  high  school  graduaJon  rates  in  Florida  increased  by  50   percent  and  student  reading  scores  dramaJcally  improved.     59%   89%   Jeb  Bush  cut  taxes  every  year  while  he  was  Florida  Governor,   totaling  more  than  $19  billion.   57%   90%   While  Jeb  Bush  was  governor,  Florida  created  1.3  million  jobs   and  led  the  naJon  in  job  growth  over  the  last  five  years  he  was   in  office.   54%   92%   Internal  Data.   Internal  Data.   The  Record  Ma=ers   Change  in  Impressions  of  Jeb  Bush   (Post  Accomplishments)   73%   Best  Messages  in  CombinaJon   Line  item  veto  to  stop  $2  billion  spending.   55%   Fought  the  teacher’s  union  to  reform   schools,  graduaIon  rates  increased  by  50%.   34%   Funded  new  women’s  shelters;  helped  bring   domesIc  violence  crimes  down  by  27%.   23%   Strongly  pro-­‐life.   Pre   Post   Favorable   Internal  Data.   Internal  Data.   Unfavorable   Balanced  eight  budgets  while  growing  the   state’s  budget  reserves  by  $8  billion  dollars.   Bush  More  PresidenJal  Than  Trump   Would  you  say  that  Jeb  Bush  /  Donald  Trump…   REPUBLICANS   76%   56%   Has  the  Right  Kind  of   Experience  to  Be   President   63%   53%   48%   Is  Honest  and   Trustworthy   49%   Cares  About  the  Needs   and  Problems  of  People   Like  You   Bush   50%   42%   Shares  Your   Values   Trump   Quinnipiac.    Conducted  October  14-­‐20,  2015.    574  Interviews  of  Likely  Iowa  Republican  Caucus  ParJcipants  in  Iowa.   37   GWB  Improving  NaJonwide   George  W.  Bush  Favorability  RaIng   59%   39%   50%   53%   57%   61%   60%   63%   57%   52%   62%   54%   53%   53%   54%   43%   43%   42%   43%   51%   52%   54%   45%   48%   46%   46%   40%   38%   41%   35%   Favorable   CNN  /  ORC  Poll.  Conducted  May  29-­‐31,  2015.    1,025  Adults  NaJonwide.   33%   46%   43%   34%   Unfavorable   38   Bush  Brand  Popular  in  IA,  NH   Iowa  Republicans   Unsure  /   Never   Heard,  5%   Unfavorab le,  19%   New  Hampshire  Republicans   Unsure  /   Never   Heard,  7%   Unfavorab le,  20%   Favorable,   75%   Favorable,   74%   NBC  /  Marist.    Conducted  July  14-­‐21,  2015.    342  Interviews  with  PotenJal  Republican  Electorate  in  Iowa;  401  in  New  Hampshire.   39   Trump  Wrong:  GWB  Kept  Us  Safe   Former  President  George  W.  Bush  Was  Successful  in  Keeping  Us  Safe  While  He  Was  in   Office.   85%   54%   76%   77%   48%   50%   21%   31%   12%   7%   5%   Iowa   27%   3%   Agree  (Not  Strongly)   20%   13%   8%   27%   3%   9%   New   Hampshire   Agree  (Strongly)   Disagree  (Not  Strongly)   11%   3%   South   Carolina   Disagree  (Strongly)   Unsure  /  Refused   Internal  Data.  Conducted  October  13-­‐17,  2015.    1,515  Interviews  with  Likely  GOP  Primary  /  Caucus  Voters  in  IA,  NH,  and  SC.   40   Electability  –  Consistently  Beat  Hillary   If  the  elecIon  for  President  were  being  held  today,  and  the  candidates  were  Hillary   Clinton  the  Democrat  and  Jeb  Bush  the  Republican,  for  whom  would  you  vote?   ALL  VOTERS   Wouldn't  vote,     7%   Someone  else/   Don't  know,  7%   Clinton,  42%   A  more  recent  poll  from   FOX  News  puts  the   match-­‐up  at  Bush  44%     Clinton  40%.  (Poll  not  used   as  it  does  not  contain  crosstabs   for  further  analysis)   Bush,  44%   Quinnipiac.    Conducted  September  17-­‐21,  2015.    1,574  Interviews  NaJonwide  of  Registered  Voters.   41   Bush  More  PresidenJal  Than  Clinton   Would  you  say  that  Jeb  Bush  /  Hillary  Clinton…   ALL  VOTERS   67%   63%   58%   49%   55%   47%   43%   32%   Has  the  Right  Kind  of   Experience  to  Be   President   Has  the  Right  Kind  of   Temperament  and   Personality  to  Handle  an   InternaIonal  Crisis   Bush   Is  Honest  and   Trustworthy   Cares  About  the   Needs  and   Problems  of   People  Like  You   Clinton   Quinnipiac.    Conducted  September  17-­‐21,  2015.    737  Interviews  NaJonwide  of  Republican  /  Republican  Leaning  Registered  Voters.   42   Creative Media Overview Jon Downs Trent Wisecup $219! 43 Com etitive Spending to Date Total Spending by Candidate/PAC: 4.5-10.19 Group (group) 9 $7,383,917 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) New Day Independent Media Committee Inc. 8. New Day for America Leads (Pro?Christie) $5,613,858 Security Is Strength (Pro-Graham) $2,074,158 Believe Again PAC (Pro-Jindal) $1,971,864 Opportunity and Freedom PAC (Pro?Perry) $1,445,579 Club for Growth (Anti-Trump) $1,047,176 Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America (Anti-Paul) ?77-478 $667,067 Chris Christie for President America's Liberty PAC (Pro?Paul) - $614,127 Unintimidated PAC (Pro-Walker) - $517,201 Ben Carson for President $454,850 Jeb! 2016 - $438,373 American Future Project (Pro Jindal) - $400,915 America Next (Pro-Jindal) I $380,569 We the People. Not Washington (Pro-Pataki) - $373,885 Keep the Promise PAC (Pro-Cruz) I $357,000 CARLY for America (Pro-Fiorina) I $213,385 Ted sz for President $137,462 Rand Paul for President $131,042 Americans United for Change (Anti-Bush) $13,200 Hispanic Democrats for Trump (Anti-Trump) I $1,340 FloridaforTrump.com (Pro-Trump) $1,095 10M 11M Total Media 2016 44 State Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina City Des Moines Boston (Manchester) Charleston Past GRPs by State Past Total GRPs by State 4.5-10.19 Group (group) 6 Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) Ben Carson for President America Next (Pro-Jindal) America's Liberty PAC (Pro-Paul) American Future Project (Pro Jindal) Believe Again PAC (Pro-Jindal) Club for Growth (Anti-Trump) Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America (Anti-Paul) Keep the Promise PAC (Pro-sz) Opportunity and Freedom PAC (Pro-Perry) Rand Paul for President Security Is Strength (Pro-Graham) Ted Cruz for President Unintimidated PAC (Pro-Walker) Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) Jeb! 2016 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) New Day Independent Media Committee Inc. 8 New Day for America (Pro-Kasich) Ben Carson for President America Leads (Pro-Christie) America's Liberty PAC (Pro-Paul) CARLY for America (Pm-Fiorina) Chris Christie for President Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America (Anti-Paul) Rand Paul for President Security ls Strength (Pro-Graham) Ted Cruz for President We the People, Not Washington (Pro-Pataki) Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubia) America's Liberty PAC (Pro-Paul) Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America (Anti?Paul) Rand Paul for President Ted Cruz for President 2.587 Law 448 1.006 1.164 5,628 1,989 585 84 6,338 462 1.399 3.579 1.134 - 613 4.791 390 2,935 I 129 I 773 120 0 1,021 - 436 3.230 1.512 568 Points 2016 45 Conservative Solutions Project PAC ?Greatness? 30 TV New Day Independent Media ?Walk? 30 TV Jeb 2016, Inc. ?I?ve Delivered? 30 TV Right to Rise "Budget Cutter? 15 TV ?x Right to Rise ?Lead? 60 TV Right to Rise ?Shake Tally? 60 TV John McKay (R) Former Florida Senate Support  for  Selected  PoliJcal  Reforms   %  STRONGLY  APPROVE   Balanced  budget  amendment   70%   Reduce  pay  for  MOC  who  repeatedly  skip  votes   68%   Disclose  Jmes/dates  of  lobbyist  contacts  online   68%   Strong,  enforceable  spending  cap   66%   Gov’t  workers  paid  no  more  than  private  sector   61%   Cut  federal  bureaucracy  through  freeze/a=riJon   60%   Ban  on  lobbying  by  former  MOC   57%   Source:  Poll  of  456  GOP  voters  in  IA,  NH,  and  SC,  May  26-­‐28  ,  2015   52   Advance Placed Media Future Total Spending 10.20-2.23 Group (group) 8 Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) Marco Rubio for President Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) Jeb! 2016 $7,758,470 America Leads (Pro-Christie) $7,049,626 New Day Independent Media Committee Inc.& New Day for America (Pro-Kasich) $3,819,753 Believe Again PAC (Pro E: 3 3 $2,704,657 Ben Carson for President $536,702 America's Liberty PAC (Pro-Paul) $222,037 Keep the Promise PAC (Pro-Cruz) 563,793 $33,012,361 $16,947,279 0M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M 12M 14M 16M 18M 20M 22M 24M 26M 28M 30M 32M 34M 36M 38M Total Media eb' 2016 53 Advance Placed Media Future Spending by State 10.20-2.23 State (group) 1 Group (group) 7 Iowa Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) $6,469,410 Jeb! 2016 - $1,016,848 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubia) $3,947,966 Marco Rubio for President $5,751,059 Ben Carson for President $158,024 Believe Again PAC (Prodindal) $2,704,446 Keep the Promise PAC (Pro-Cruz) I $31,768 New ?sn.sze.sea "8mm" Jeerer ?54.440,000 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubia) $4,984,876 Marco Rubio for President $5,502,656 New Day Independent Media Committee Inc. a New Day for America (Pro-Kasich) $3,819,753 Ben Carson for President $111,416 America Leads (Pro-Christie) $7,049,626 America's Liberty PAC (Pro-Paul) I $222,037 South Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) $7,882,386 cam'ma Jeb! 2016 $2,301,622 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) $3,214,098 Marco Rubio for President $5,457,722 Ben Carson for President $169,054 Keep the Promise PAC (Pm-sz) 1 $32,025 National Right to Rise PAC (Pro-Bush) - $1,334,002 Conservative Solutions Project (Pro-Rubio) I $662,250 0M 2M 4M 6M 8M 10M 12M 14M 16M 18M 20M Total Media 919. 54 February  Primary  Media  Plan   •  $10.8M  Total  Gross  Plan  –  starJng  January  5     •  New  Hampshire  $5.6M     •  •  •  –  5  Weeks   –  7,000  Points  Boston/Manchester  (83%  of  NH  TV  HH’s)     –  Statewide  Cable,  Radio  and  Digital   South  Carolina  $2.7M   –   7  weeks   –  3,600  points  –  top  4  markets  (83%  of  SC  TV  HH’s)   –  Statewide  Cable,  Radio,  Digital  and  Addressable  satellite   Iowa  $1.36M   –  4  weeks   –  3,200  points  –  Top  2  markets  with  some  Davenport  TV   –  Statewide  Cable,  Radio  and  Digital   Nevada  $191k   –  7  weeks  conservaJve  radio,  digital  and  some  Hispanic  media   55   ?Denisha? "Why I?m Running? ?Leadership? 6? AW ., . a In?. eb' 2016 58 ?Town Hal Early  State  Strategy   David  Kochel,  Annie  Kelly,     David  James,  &  Alex  Lundry   60   Early  State  Infrastructure   Iowa   •  10  Paid  Staffers   –  Hispanic  Engagement  Staff   –  Faith  Base  Staff   •  2  Offices     New  Hampshire   •  12  Paid  Staffers   •  1  Office   Florida   •  5  Paid  Staff   •  2  Offices     South  Carolina   •  7  Paid  Staffers   •  3  Offices       Nevada   •  8  Paid  Staffers   –  Hispanic  Engagement  Staff   •  2  Offices   NaIonal  èEarly  States   •  RecruiJng  Alums,  Friends  &  Family   •  Deployment  to  Early  States   •  Virtual  Calls  from  Home   •  PoliJcal  Surrogates   61   EVENTS BY STATE . A South Oregon Idaho I I deold Wiscons-n Wyoming - a Muchnqan New I .Conn?chcul United Ind-and Oh'o . Rho-dc Island . o? 1 [an . COlo'ado we? Nov. JPfo?y Mussoun 4U . (Kentucky Virgmla a 1. Cal?orn-a m? rm Damnct I 0 . I Oklah0ma Carolina 0f (.0 um!) .1 Anzona New Arkansas I . I :01, ?5 Alabama Georgia 0 OponStrootMap mnmuN Texas .3 . NH EVENTS OVER TIME NH EVENTS ,0 mm cuck Nam-Muhth ?n lame-non cartoon?6? 7? laws-m Imam/m newsman?as mam?as Mum?31 memo?27 Toanu?ZO 5? .Cany?oma laments-e 50 .OooddTm .GeotgePudu' 4o Inauycm mauve?24 30 Manon?22 "Mew?22 2? warm?w mum-9 BobbyJindll-O hum-e mnm 2 Jan! ?81 Mayeb' 2016 62 (E OomSt'eetMap contrbulors Ben Carson Bernie Sanders Bobby Jindal Carly Florina Chris Christie Donald Trump George Pataki Hillary OintOn Jan 1 Mar 1 SC EVENTS OVER TIME Name to Highlight Vay' M1 EVENTS BY STATE Ruck Santorum Rick Santorum Ii. Huckaboo Ben Carson Mike Huckaboo Rand Paul John Kalich Tod Cruz Caiy Fiorina tuna Pu lace Rublo Berni. Sanders Bon Canon Chris Christie Minty Clinton Bobby Jlndal Dondd Trunp Martin O?Malloy Jill Wobb 600:9. Paula Sop 1 SC EVENTS Click on a state to see visit details below. 35 eb' 2016 63 EVENTS BY STATE IIU u-.4 /Ma we 5? Wisconsin Idaho . Mum an New "yommq York Mm. ~43?;me L1. xx. .u-tta . I I 5 Int! nna Oh'o ls . H. (,Olomdo \u'csl rw.? Missouri Ohm-um- ?ch?lutky erqua Oklahoma I: Carol m, L.) . Arizona New . Adm?mds Mex-L0 1? I . 3 Alabama Gco'qm Clickonamtotoseevisitdotails below. 0 OpenStreotMap commum ems. NV EVENTS OVER TIME NV EVENTS .2 mm ?mu?w lament)" mm mm ?aw?n '0 - mm .JohnKasidI new? lMikonbeo . mm mameb' 2016 64 ?21 conlr oulors IA EVENTS OVER TIME . x, Name to Highlight Ben Carson Bobby Jindal Carly F-orina Chris Christie Donald Trump George Palakl I Jeb Bush 63 John Kasch 03 - I. Doc' '4 lcc' '5 .ur' '5 M- '5 EVENTS BY STATE CI Jnda 33", Emma Rand PM ?06 Cruz Inns (Jr-r sic Know 'Jcl' 8aan 8060': It. MW Cody Pm and Paul Don Canon Georg. Paula w" Click on a state to see visit details below. IA EVENTS 180' . eb' 2016 65 Eligible  Voters  (parJsan  reg  &  primary  history)   •  ’12  GOP  Caucus  Votes  –  121,501     –  Winner:  Santorum,  with  29,839  (24.56%)   –  Note:  Romney  finished  second  with  29,805  (24.53%)     •  ’08  GOP  Caucus  Votes  –  119,188   –  Winner:  Huckabee,  with  40,954  (34.36%)   –  Note:  Romney  finished  second  with  30,021  (25.19%)     •  Total  Registered  GOP  –  609,020  (AcJve  Republicans  as  of  June  2015)   –  ParJcipants  in  the  Republican  caucus  must  be  registered  Republicans   –  ParJcipants  can  register  or  change  their  registraJon  at  the  caucus   locaJon   –  17-­‐year-­‐olds  can  parJcipate,  as  long  as  they  will  be  18  years  old  by   November  8,  2016     State Organization Region 1 - Pink - Eric Baker Region 2 - Green - Susan Geddes Region 3 - Red - Caleb Huegel Region 4 - Yellow - Evan Machan Region 5 - Blue - Kyle Radon Region 6 - Orange - Mason Morgan Clayton Dump. Jones Jackson Clinton Cedar 8001: 1 Masculine Kookuk Minuet! Reg 4 tom Jefferson "any Des Moines VmBum Loo 2016 2012  Results   County  Winners   Size  of  Lead   Won  67  counJes   Won  16  counJes   Won  16  counJes   Political Landscape Polling Data Data Trunp Carson Florina an: Rublo Bush Huck-boo Pad Kasich Christie Santorum Graham Patakl RCP Average 9/1 8 - 9/30 22.3 1 6.7 100.0 Trump +5.6 9/23 - 9/Trump +5 Gravis 9/25- 9/Trump +5 (0) 9/18 - 9/Trump +7 All Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Polling Data Trump +5.6 Carson Fiorina Cruz 4 P03 _d . I Rubio Bush a Huckabee Jindal owa epu loan res' ent'a aucus Paul Kasich Christie Santorum 4 Graham Pataki Walker Perry 25 20 15 10% Jeb' May June August September October 2 1 6 . Vote Goals 2012 Vote By CD cf 1226:? :22: Statewide Jeb Vote Goals 2 27571 23.13% Lab 13-42% 3 36585 30.70% J9 V?tes :7 5 4 30875 25.90% 2016 Vote By CD 20161eb Vote By CD CD 16 Vote Total CD Jeb 16 Vote Total 1 27723 21.53% 1 5310 22.34% 2 29225 22.69% 2 5200 21.88% 3 38780 30.11% 3 7993 33.63% 4 32728 25.41% 4 5261 22.14% Metrics   •  Vote  Goal:  23,716  (18.46%)   •  Statewide  ID’ed  supporters:  1,281   •  Supporter  Rolls  Outs:   –  Total  County  Chairs/Co-­‐Chairs:  76   •  Tier  One  Chair:  Goal-­‐34,  Recruited-­‐23   •  Tier  One  Co-­‐Chair:  Goal:  24,  Recruited  42     •  Polk  County  Leadership  Team:  30   –  –  –  –  •  •  •  •  Statewide  Leadership  Team     Farm  Team   Business  Leaders     Students  for  Jeb!   Total  Calls  Made  to  Date:  70,381   Grasstops  Engagements  to  Date:  3,809   Precinct  Leaders  Recruited:  129   Emails  Collected:  5,014   71   Tracking Week 18 Week 17 Iowa Running WTD Tues Wed Thur Fri WTD Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri WTD Contact Tracker Total Total 6-Oct 7-Oct 8-Oct 9-Oct Total 10-Oct 11-Oct 12-Oct 13-Oct 14-Oct 15-Oct 16-Oct Total Statewide Call Goal 56,975 750 0 0 750 750 2500 900 900 900 900 3400 Statewide Calls Completed 70,380 265 164 10 709 1544 0 943 894 '"1203 l"1170 l"4709 Statewide DoorGoal Statewide Doors Knocked Statewide Supporter Goal Supporters Statewide 1,281 Statewide PL Recruitment coaiStatewide PLs Recuited Statewide Volunteer Goal Statewide Volunteer Recruited Statewide Unique Volunteers 0 Statewide Emails Collected 5,014 Grasstops Engagements Goal 3,809 Statewide Grasstops Engagem'Ir 3,199 Supporter  RetenJon   •  Targeted  email  program   •  Conference  calls  with  campaign  leadership   o  Weekly  both  statewide  and  by  region   •  Regular  regional  events     o  House  parJes  and  debate  watches   •  Monthly  conference  call  with  all  with  supporters   •  Social  media  engagement   •  Surrogate  deployment     What’s  Next?   •  •  •  •  •  Precinct  captain  goals   Surrogate  calls  and  deployment     Community  meeJngs   Caucus  trainings     GOTV     74   Grassroots  Efforts   To  date:     •  We  have  made  over  1  million  targeted  direct  voter   contacts.   –  We  are  persuading  and  gathering  ID  data   •  We  have  secured  more  than  1,100  endorsements  from   leaders  of  all  levels.    These  organizaJons  will  be  valuable.   •  We  are  engaging  with  key  consJtuencies  that  can  expand   our  vote  and  lend  more  support  with  volunteer  efforts.   •  Building  the  infrastructure  to  gain  Ballot  Access   everywhere.   75   Endorsements       •  Jeb  Bush  has  more   Congressional   public  support   than  any  other   candidate.     76   NOTABLE  ENDORSEMENTS   •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  Denny  Albaugh,  Agri-­‐Business  (IA)   Senate  President  Chuck  Morse  (NH)   Fmr  Congressman  Tommy  Hartne=  (SC)   Fmr  Lt.  Governor  Brian  Krolicki  (NV)   Speaker  John  Hambrick  (NV)   Fmr  Governor  Bob  Riley  (AL)   Lt.  Governor  Kay  Ivey  (AL)   Congressman  Mike  Rogers  (AL)   Lt.  Governor  Casey  Cagle  (GA)   A=orney  General  Sam  Olens  (GA)   A=orney  General  Palm  Bondi  (FL)   Florida  Speaker  Steve  Crisafulli  (FL)   Fmr  Speaker  Davy  Carter  (AR)   Fmr  Governor  William  Weld  (MA)   Fmr  Congressman  Vin  Weber  (MN)   Speaker  Jeff  Hickman  (OK)   A=orney  General  Sco=  Prui=  (OK)   Fmr  Majority  Leader  Bill  Frist  (TN)   Fmr  Commissioner  Bill  Hagerty  (TN)   •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •    Land  Commissioner  George  P.  Bush  (TX)   Speaker  Joe  Straus  (TX)   Congresswoman  Kay  Granger  (TX)   Fmr  Majority  Leader  Eric  Cantor  (VA)   Fmr  Lt.  Governor  John  Hager  (VA)   Congressman  Charles  Boustany  (LA)   Senator  Susan  Collins  (ME)   Fmr  Governor  Jock  McKernan  (ME)   Fmr  Governor  Luis  Fortuño  (Puerto  Rico)   A=orney  General  Bill  Schue=e  (MI)   Fmr  A=orney  General  Mike  Cox  (MI)   Congresswoman  Mimi  Walters  (CA)   Congressman  David  Tro=  (MI)   Congressman  Adam  Kinzinger  (IL)   Fmr  Governor  Jim  Edgar  (IL)   Congresswoman  Ann  Wagner  (MO)   Congressman  Patrick  McHenry  (NC)   Senator  Orrin  Hatch  (UT)   Fmr  A=orney  General  Jerry  Kilgore  (VA)   We  have  over  45  volunteer  operaJves  working  in  the  March  states  and  territories   77   Engagement  Efforts   Announced   •  NaIonal  Veterans  CoaliIon     In  FormaIon   •  African  Americans   –  12  MOH  Winners   –  Over  75  members  of  all  ranks   –  20  acJve  members  in  working  group   •  Hispanic  Steering  CommiNee   •  Asian  American  &  Pacific  Islanders   –  Announced  more  than  250  community   leaders.    250  more  will  be  announced  in   coming  weeks.   –  12  acJve  members  in  working  group   •  Law  Enforcement   •  Religious  Freedom  Advisory   CommiNee   –  Recruited  11  County  Sheriffs   •  Agriculture   –  Announced  94  members   –  Catholic,  Evangelical,  Protestant   Mainline,  LDS,  Jewish  &  Orthodox   •  Jewish  Steering  CommiNee   –  More  that  75  members  Announced   •  Millennials/Students   –  1,000+  Young  Professionals  ($400k) –  300+  Campuses  in  45  States       –  30+  on  Iowa  Farm  Team  (Announced)   –  10  members  on  NaJonal  working  group   including  2  former  U.S.  AG  Secretaries   •  Second  Amendment   •  Business  Leaders       78   Ballot Access The Ballot 2014 Tracking the 2014 elections. More Delegate Problems for Rick Santorum in Illinois, D.C. Law of "at orial orga" zatiO" com "9 uac< to llaolil Repuo icari aga n. 2016 Washington Nation Wond OurTeam 9 Four GOP candidates fail to make Virginia primary ballot, judge rules Egg?imjrgezttim FriJaiim", 0.2012 0 Promoted Stories The i5 Best School This 20-ysar-uld Districts Ill tlie U.S. lrorri Alabama doesn't look like a ., I 7 . Ither the requisite number of signatures in his homestate. Newt Gingrich . I 9 ballot in the state of Virginia. l'lie Ripple E?eul All Of the Dirty i Lauridn/ the Obarrias Don't Want ?erry also failed to submit enough signatures to qualify for the Virginia Aired nan Ray Sullivan released a statement indicating that the campaign plans to I aw and decide whether or not to challenge the Virginia GOP's ruling. The names ol Flick Santorum. Rick Perry. Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich Will not appear on the Virginia More from CNN primary ballot. w? I. A the facts and law to determine whether an appeal or challenge is eb' 2016 79 Ballot  Access   •  Experienced  team  leading  effort   •  Deployed  paid  staff  into  the  field  and  mobilized   volunteers  to  gather  signatures  in  states  such  as   Vermont,  Delaware,  Alabama,  Virginia,  Indiana,  Illinois   and  Alaska   •  AcJvely  recruiJng  delegate  slates  in  Alabama,   Tennessee,  Illinois,  Pennsylvania,  New  Jersey,  and  Ohio   (States  where  delegates  are  directly  elected  on  the   ballot).       –  First  camp.  to  recruit  a  full  slate  of  delegates  in  TN   –  Successfully  on  ballot  in  IA,  SC,  NV,  AL,  KY,  GA,  MN,  VT,  KS,  ID,   ME,  AK  and  HI.   80   March  State  PrioriJzaJon   GOALS   •  •  •  “1,428   DELEGATES  IN  22   DAYS!”   To  maximize  expected  delegates  earned   by  efficiently  allocaJng  Jme  and  money   To  develop  a  formula  that  can  serve  as  a   data  informed  starJng  point  for  these   decisions   To  take  into  account  GJB’s  unique   strengths  to  idenJfy  advantageous   geographical  areas   81   March  State  PrioriJzaJon   HTS   G I E W •  •  •  •  •  STRUCTURAL   CALENDAR   HISTORICAL   PREDICTED   PERFORMANCE   TV   elec?on  rules   date   Romney   Jeb   efficiency   Primary  /  Caucus   •  Open  /  Closed   AllocaJon  methods   Thresholds   WTA  opJons   Earlier  is  more   important   •  2012  primary   performance  of  Mi=   Romney   •  •  •  Jeb  MicrotargeJng   •  Jeb  Digital  Data   •  Jeb  Survey  Data   CPP   Feb/March  state   coverage   STRATEGIST   intangibles   •  •  •  Leadership  survey   Home  state   advantages   In  state  strategist   survey   WeighJng  is  dynamic  so  that  as  primary  season   progresses,  predicted  performance  weights   become  more  important   82   Data  &  AnalyJcs   260  MILLION  individuals  in  our  database   3,000  data  points  per  individual     30,000  tags  from  previous  ID  efforts   HUNDREDS  OF  THOUSANDS  of  calls  into  early  state  voters   •  This  data  is  being  used  to  provide  detailed  MicroTargeJng   profiles  of  voters  in  key  primary  states.       •  We  know  exactly  which  Republicans  are  the  most  likely  to   vote  and  what  issues  ma=er  to  them.   •  We  are  running  thousands  of  simulated  ElecJon  Days  using   the  data  we  have  collected  in  order  to  game  out  different   scenarios  and  be=er  allocate  resources.   83   Data  and  AnalyJcs   The  Most  SophisIcated  GOP  AnalyIcs  Effort  Ever   •  •  •  •  •  •  •  •  Voter  Scoring  &  MicrotargeJng   Direct  Contact  Universe  CreaJon   Poll  Sample  Management   Vote  Goals  &  Turnout  Models   ForecasJng  &  SimulaJons   Paid  Media  AllocaJon  &  OpJmizaJon   Experiment  Informed  Programs   ConversaJon  Tracking   84   Ackbar: Strategic Dashboards Start Date End Date Polling Summary ?2?15 ?m?m?s National POLLING AVERAGES 35 30 Trump 25 9 20 Carson 15 1O Rubio I Bush Fion'na 5 Cruz Huckabeo Christie Kasuch 0 Patakl Scp1 Scpe Sep11 Sep16 Sep21 Scp26 0:11 OctG Oc(11 00116 POLLS End Dal. Pollstor Stale Flnal Method Subpopula?on Bush Trump Canon Rublo . . Likely Voters - 10/18/2015 Nanona LIVO Phone Republican 400 8% 25% 22% 13% . Registered 10/15/2015 NBC/SurveyMonkey Nauona Inlcmel Voters 1.881 5% 28% 23% 9% . Muils - 10/14/2015 Ipsos/Reuters Nauona Internet Repubhcan 492 1 1% 33% 19% 8% . Likely Voters - 10/12/2015 FOX Nauona Live Phone Republican 398 8% 24 23% 9% National POLLING AVERAGE OVER LAST TEN POLLS Click on the candidate to highlight their trend line. Trump Carson Rublo 9% Cruz 8% am Florin: 6% Huckaboo Paul Kaslch Christie Jindll Santcrum 0% Palakl 0% Graham 0% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% Gllmon 0% 0% 2% 10% 12% 14% 16% Paul Chnsuo Huchboo Jlndal Graham 21% 18% 20% 22% Florlna Sanlomm Geography National 24% 26% Kaslch 3% 3% 2% 26% 28% 30% eb' 2016 85 Ackbar: Strategic Dashboards 5Fabmary201s Calendar Summary 0mm 2013 February 2016 CUMULATIVE DELEGATES BY DATE Sunday Monday Tuesday Wadnaeday Thursday Friday Saturday 2 a A a 2500 1500 1000 2a 25 2: :1 500 0 333333 8888888888 Fab1 FebS Fab11 Fab1s Fab21 Mal2 Mal7 Mav12 Mar? MN22 M827 Apr1 M6 Apr" M16 W21 MAP OF ALLOCATION METHOD unmn? Canad. 9 6 OpanSvoalMap contributor: Opensuoewao contributor: ti.? 1 ALAllocatlon Method - n'nn eb' 2016 86 Ackbar: Strategic Dashboards EVENTS BY STATE - . . Cluck on a state to see details below. cont'mmrs '7 All EVENTS OVER TIME All EVENTS 100 Rn Samorum Rm: sanzomm 95 Name to Highlight was" ??04 I RIM Paul Cam hound 33 80 Cam cm: CM Rand pm? 86 Donald hung andsey Gtaham 79 Geo: PM U- 60 . led C101 73 800M JMU 1cm Much Ben Canon 63 erse. Guth John Much 66 4o Muco Ruboo 55 Donald Trump Chnsue 63 Mike Huckobee 62 20 Bobby Jlnoal 59 DonaId trump 34 If Geocge Palalu 36010 Sec .Ackbar: Strategic Dashbogrds Prediction Market Summary JG. .1 73? IMPLIED PROBABILITY 0F RECEIVING GOP NOMINATION 26: Candldato [2 I Jet: Bush Marco RuDro Donald Trump Cany Fronna Ben Carson John Kasucn Ted Cruz . v.1 er Rube Orr-5c TM a Cam hut-re C005 Omit: W: induce an Sec ?5 out. 25 .1 a Las: 30 days 10 DAY AVERAGE IMPLIED PROBABILITY ?no Ruck, Doro? Yuma homo Don Caner- Ju'm Kauai- 706 Can Christie 8.. Numb" Rum Pad .0061 110an Rich Pm nan-y Graham In? Game" Rich Sanctum Georg: Paulo 75%. ?623-. ebI 2016 88 lVIicrotargeting Universe Overview UNIVERSE State 0 Mug 0 IA (9 NH Saoll to the mm to see mate ophons A Mole femue 45-64 56-64 65? Black Huggins Amn 01m Earned SI Ie Cote 927 nu 97.6 no 6.3 ?5 nu 12? 8.2 GOTV 103 97.8 .8 16.9 13.1 115.. 072 "5.5 Oppoti?on 107.3 131.8 111.5 1113 1128 1101 72.3 103? 1'2 1'37 "0.4 ?3 102? Penuauon 102 NUMBER OF VOTERS BY ZIP CODE - ?wUnwerse Kane 0 No Cote cow 0 (a Pawn-on eb' 2016 89 State  of  the  Art  Poll  Sampling   20000 NH Sampled R & U Probability of Voting in 2016 GOP Primary n voters 15000 10000 5000 0 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 Predicted Prob of Voting in 2016 GOP Primary 1.00 90   Percentage Jeb Ballot Lead Sybill: Campaign Simulations High Turnoul . . my 0 .0 0 Average . . . . . . ?52a . ow Turnout . . Victory 32.5 35.0 37.5 40.0 42.5 Percentage Turnout Advanced TV Tracking :5 ar? mm 5 a (Manchester g; 2! NH) 5 i 2 Burlington VT- 3 a Plattsburgh 5' NY 3 1? a- 2?2 Porua 5, 9. 2: Auburn ME 5 5 1x? lino-m ?'01 5-51 0&1 Conquest Advertising Pick Sponsors or Creatives -9,432 63,711 (Hold CTRL on PCs or CMD on Macs to select multiple) 210? . 02 01 BUSH, JEB DELIVERED 190_ 180- . 17o? 160- RIGHT TO RISE USA (PRO-BUSH) 2.5 150140- :1 0'1 6 0 . NEW DAY INDEPENDENT MEDIA HELICOPTER COMMITTEE, INC . (PRO-KASICH) . 20K 30K 40K 50K 60K c.net_projeb_target_imp Targeted Media Buying Ef?ciencies Persuasion: October, Boston DMA am? 22 600? Given the goal of read'ling 1,000 Targeted Ratings 500- Points, it would cost you $1,049,655 to ad'lieve g, 998 Persuasion TRPs using the Nielsen 35+ CPP ?3 400- method. It would cost you $822,165 to achieve 995 Persuasion TRPs using the TCPP method - good for a lift of 28%. I Deep Root TCPP Sort I Nielsen CPP Sort I I I I I 0K 100K 200K 300K 400K 500K 600K 700K 800K 900K 1000K 1100K Cume Digital Tracking Analytics Relative Google search traffic, September 16 debate. I 00 75 50 25 23:00 2016 95 1 8:00 19:00 20:00 2 'l :00 22:00 Jeb Other Candidates Social Media Monitoring Share of Voice 96 Digital  AdverJsing   Ads:   •  We  have  matched  our  voter  targets  into   cookie  pools  so  that  our  digital  efforts  are   perfectly  synced  with  our  field  and  television   efforts.       •  We  have  a  truly  cross  channel,  cross  browser   effort  that  allows  us  to  serve  an  ad  to  a  target   of  ours  on  their  desktop  at  work,  and  then  to   their  iPad  as  they  watch  TV  at  night.     •  We  are  constantly  targeJng  the  person,  not   the  site,  not  the  device.     •  We  are  tracking  and  adapJng  our  digital   adverJsing  in  real  Jme,  reallocaJng  our  reach   and  frequencies  constantly.   97   Digital  Fundraising   Fundraising  tools:   •  •  •  We  have  a  one-­‐click  donaJon   system  built  on  the  same   technology  as  apple-­‐pay.     We’ve  built  a  dynamic  and   personalized  website,  that   allows  us  to  customize  the   not  only  what  we  ask  for  but   the  amount  you  see  on  the   forms  on  our  site,  customized   to  you  as  a  donor  and  your   ability  to  give.   We  are  tesJng  and  opJmizing   the  website  by  audience  type,   allowing  us  to  customize  the   site  experience  by  audience.   So  for  example,  visitors  from   a  mobile  device  see  the  site   that  be=er  yields  outcomes   for  mobile  visitors,  and   desktop  visitors  see  the  site   that  yields  the  best  outcome   from  them.     98   Communications Tim V i er 99 State of the Race: Press Process 19219! 100 CommunicaJons  ObjecJves   •  Advance  A=ributes  Necessary  to  Win     –  Plan  to  fix  DC     –  Cares  about  people  like  me     –  Strong  Leader     •  Contrast  Those  Traits  with  Opponents   •  Promote  to  Target  Audiences  in  States/Niche   Groups     –  Local  Media     –  Digital/Social     101   Plan  To  Fix  DC:  Policy     •  Washington  Reform     –  Union  Leader:  Bush:  Massive  reform  needed  for  America   –  Boston  Globe:  Bush  remarks  please  conservaJves  in  N.H.   •  Reform  And  Growth  Tax  Plan     –  Wall  Street  Journal  Editorial:  The  Bush  Growth  Plan  –  “Tax  reform  that  would   cut  rates  and  unleash  business  investment.”   –  PoliIco:  Bush  Tax  Plan  Delights  ConservaIves  –  “Jeb  Bush’s  tax  plan  is  a   bonanza  for  conserva?ve  Republicans,  and  may  be  something  to  energize  his   campaign.”   •  Regulatory  Reform     –  WQAD:  Jeb  Took  Campaign  to  Iowa  Farm  to  Discuss  Reg  Reform  Plan  with   Farmers   –  KCRG:  Jeb  Bush  Blasted  President  Obama  for  Allowing  DC  to  Run  Amuck   •  Energy     –  Reuters:  Jeb  Bush  energy  plan  emphasizes  jobs,  lower  prices   •  Health  Care   –  Na5onal  Review:    Jeb  Bush  vs.  Obamacare     102   Interviews  with  Jeb   18   16   14   12   10   8   Print   6   TV   4   Radio   2   0   103   Local  Media:  Iowa/NH/SC/NV   Iowa   •  Gov.  Jeb  Bush  interviewed  with  Cynthia  Fodor  of  KCCI  8  News   •  Jeb  interview  with  Dave  Price:  Jeb:  “We  Need  to  Reform  The  Mess   in  DC,  Members  of  Congress  Shouldn't  Get  Paid  for  Skipping  Votes”   •  Radio  Iowa  Interview  -­‐  Bush:  ‘No  other  campaign  comes  close  to   the  details’  in  my  tax  plan   •  AP:  Bush  touts  upbeat  vision  with  Iowa  speech  and  new  video   New  Hampshire     •  Concord  Monitor:  At  Tilt’n  Diner  stop,  Bush  declares:  ‘I’m  gonna   win  New  Hampshire   •  Calendonian  Record:  Li=leton-­‐Lancaster:  Jeb  Bush  Visits  North   Country   •  Monadnock  Ledger-­‐Transcript:  Gov.  Jeb  Bush  visits  Nonie’s       104   Fun/Personal Interviews: Fallon 105 Niche Audiences: . Digital:  Content     •  We’ve  tagged  our  site  to  provide  us  deep   insights  into  what  audiences  consume,  providing   us  thousands  of  data-­‐points  on  site  visitors.       •  During  the  debates,  we’re  nimble,  and  combine   our  top  quality  video  and  graphics  content  with   our  adverJsing  efforts.  Pairing  ads  to  the   audiences  that  will  most  likely  be  moved  by  them   rapidly  and  effecJvely.     107   Social Highlights 99.8? 0 HillaryClinton fixed your logo for you. Sorry Mom 30,078 29,258 l5 XISIAMSIAXIS HS MXIS HS It!? n? v- >1 v. u- IAXH IIS XIS MXES YAXES TAXIS YAXISYA VANS IAIISIA Ml? IAIISIA lAllS IA TAXES YAXIS 1A YAXIS 1o,23914,339 HHIIB ?1 Jeb' 2016 108 Jeb TV "#JebNoFilter: Sharknado 3? 109 with Sally Bradshaw Danny Diaz 110 NaJonal  Finance  Update   Heather  Larrison,   Woody  Johnson,  and  Jack  Oliver   111   Q4 Rollout POP ART, POLITICS JEB SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2015 ART BASEI. MIAMI Jeb' 2016 112