Labour Market Statistics: September 2015 quarter Embargoed until 10:45am – 04 November 2015 Key facts Labour market at a glance     Number employed fell for the first time in three years. Unemployment rate increased to 6.0 percent. Labour force participation rate falls further from record high in March 2015 quarter. Annual wage inflation remained at 1.6 percent. Employment at a glance(seasonally adjusted) Working-age population Employed Unemployed Filled jobs Employment rate Unemployment rate Labour force participation rate Wages at a glance Wage inflation (salary and wage rates, including overtime) LCI analytical unadjusted Average ordinary time hourly earnings Hours at a glance(figures seasonally adjusted) All sectors Private sector Public sector Sep 2015 quarter (000) 3,638 2,347 151 1,830 Percent 64.5 6.0 68.6 Level 1114 +0.4 +1.6 1119 +0.4 +1.7 1098 +0.3 +1.2 1203 $29.29 +0.8 +1.0 +2.7 +2.3 Level Ordinary 37.75 time Average weekly paid hours for FTEs (QES) Total 38.57 Total weekly paid hours (QES) 56.3 (million) Total actual weekly hours worked (HLFS) 78.4 (million) Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician ISSN 2422-8699 4 November 2015 Quarterly Annual change change Percent +0.6 +2.2 -0.4 +1.5 +2.0 +10.5 +0.7 +1.7 Percentage points -0.7 -0.5 +0.1 +0.4 -0.7 -0.2 Percent Percent +0.0 +0.7 +0.1 +0.9 +0.4 +0.8 +3.1 +1.5 Commentary            Number of employed people falls for first time in three years Unemployment rate rises to 6.0 percent Labour force participation falls for second quarter Younger age groups entering labour force Construction boom supports annual employment growth Regional employment slowing Female NEET rate lowest on record Number of jobless rises over the quarter Annual wage inflation remains at 1.6 percent LCI continues to outpace inflation Private and public sector wage growth remain steady Number of employed people falls for first time in three years For the September 2015 quarter employment fell (down 0.4 percent), with 11,000 fewer people employed than in the previous quarter. This is the first quarter employment has fallen in three years (employment fell 0.5 percent in the September 2012 quarter). 2 In the September 2015 quarter the working-age population increased by 22,000 people (0.6 percent). This is the second consecutive quarter that employment growth has not kept up with growth in the working-age population. Unemployment rate rises to 6.0 percent The unemployment rate rose to 6.0 percent in the September 2015 quarter – up from 5.9 percent for the June 2015 quarter. There were 3,000 more unemployed people in the quarter, bringing the number of unemployed to 151,000 – the highest number since the June 2013 quarter. Tasman/Nelson/Marlborough/West Coast had the only statistically significant change in regional unemployment rates, with an increase to 5.7 percent, (up 2.1 percentage points). 3 Unemployment rates by regional eeuneil eree September 2015 quarter (tempered with September 2U14 quarter} Ne rlhlan d: 8.2% [damn 5 Merlh Ielend. 55% [up I13 pp] Seuth Ielenel: 45.11% [up 1.El pp} l-le1e: pp meene percentage pein1e Eta}- elF'Ienw: 5-4% {deem I11 pp] ALI ckle nd: 2% Eur: 1 PM Wail-tam: lun rm) Te mnaki' 5.1% 11.5 [Up pm Giehurne Hawkes Elay: 3% Eur:- m1] Menewal u- Wengan ui' [ne eng e} tl'u'ellingter'r: 5.5% Nelsen .I'Tee men If Merlhureugh [pp} Canterbury: 3.9% (up up] tillage: '15 FIFIJ Unemployment rate ?In Upte an new )5 - 5.1m - - and ever The unemployment rates differed for men and women. For men, the number of unemployed rose by 4,400, while for women the number fell by 1,500 in the September 2015 quarter. This resulted in a 5.6 percent unemployment rate for men (up 0.4 percentage points), and a 6.6 percent rate for women (down 0.1 percentage points). This is the highest unemployment rate for men since the September 2013 quarter. In the year to September 2015, the number of unemployed people increased 14,000 (up 10.5 percent). The unemployment rate increased 0.4 percentage points over the year, up from 5.6 percent in the September 2014 quarter. Labour force participation falls for second quarter The September 2015 quarter labour force participation rate was 68.6 percent, down 0.7 percentage points from the June 2015 quarter, and down from the record high (69.5 percent) in the March 2015 quarter. The labour force participation rate was back at the same level as in June 2014. Despite the growing working-age population, the labour force (unemployed and employed) is not growing at the same rate. The latest quarter had the largest increase in the number of people not in the labour force (2.6 percent) since the March 2009 quarter. While Auckland made the greatest contribution to growth in the working-age population over the year to the September 2015 quarter (36,800 people), it also had 23,700 more people who were not in the labour force. Younger age groups entering labour force In the year to September 2015, growth in the labour force was highest for people aged 20–29 years, with 35,900 more people. This growth came from increases in both the numbers employed (28,300 people) and unemployed (7,600 people). In comparison, increases in the number not in the labour force came from people aged 50–54 years (10,900) and 65 years and over (14,100), in the year to September 2015. The growth in the number not in the labour force came predominately from people who were retired (20,100 people). Construction boom supports annual employment growth In the year to September 2015, annual employment growth was 1.5 percent (34,000 people).The largest contributor to national employment growth over the year was construction, which employed 20,500 more people (statistically significant). Auckland (14,700 people) and Canterbury (5,000 people) were the top two regions contributing to the employment growth in construction for the year. The following graph shows the industries that contributed to annual employment growth. 5 The largest contributions to the rise in filled jobs over the year (reported by businesses in the QES) came from:    construction (15,300) health care and social assistance (6,600) accommodation and food services (5,200). Regional employment slowing In the year to September 2015, Auckland’s annual employment growth fell after a particularly strong period of growth over the last two years. Auckland’s employment growth slowed to 1.5 percent (11,500) down from 3.9 percent in the year to June 2015. Auckland's growth came from the construction industry (14,700 people), retail trade, accommodation, and food service industry (8,400 people), and health care and social assistance industry (7,600 people). However, falls in financial and insurance services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade all contributed to the slowing employment growth. Canterbury’s annual employment growth continued to ease, with growth of 1.3 percent (4,200) coming from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry (5,400) followed by the construction industry (5,000). Falls in the number employed in professional scientific, technical, administrative, and support services, and in public administration and safety, contributed to the slowing Canterbury employment growth. Of all regions, Bay of Plenty had the highest, and only statistically significant, annual employment growth – 6.1 percent (8,100 people). 6 Female NEET rate lowest on record The proportion of youth (15–24 years) not in employment, education, or training (NEET) was the lowest in seven years, at 11.0 percent (down 0.5 percentage points). The NEET rate for women fell 1.1 percentage points (to 12.3 percent) over the latest quarter – the lowest rate since the series began in March 2004. The NEET rate for men rose 0.2 percentage points (to 9.9 percent). The NEET rate fell as more 15–24-year-olds moved into education (9,000 more) over the quarter. Number of jobless rises over the year The total number of jobless people for the September 2015 quarter was 269,600, up 40,100 (17.5 percent) from the September 2014 quarter . Jobless people include those officially unemployed, those available for but not actively seeking work, and people actively seeking but not available for work. This is a useful indicator of how many people are on the fringe of the labour market. 7 Annual wage inflation remains at 1.6 percent Quarterly Employment Survey hourly earnings and labour cost index (LCI) figures are not seasonally adjusted. In the year to September 2015 quarter:    The LCI (including overtime) increased 1.6 percent. (This measure of wage inflation reflects changes in the rates that employers pay to have the same job done to the same standard). The unadjusted LCI increased 2.7 percent. (This allows for quality changes within occupations as well as wage inflation). Average ordinary-time hourly earnings increased 2.3 percent, down from a 2.8 percent increase in the year to June 2015. (This measures the average hourly wage bill across all jobs in surveyed industries). 8 LCI continues to outpace inflation In the year to September 2015, prices of goods and services bought by households, as measured by the consumers price index (CPI), increased 0.4 percent; the CPI excluding petrol increased 0.8 percent. See Consumers Price Index: September 2015 quarter. The LCI salary and wage rates (including overtime) increased 1.6 percent over the same period. Wage inflation has now been higher or equal to the CPI for four years. 9 Private and public sector wage growth remain steady In the year to the September 2015 quarter, private sector salary and wage rates (including overtime) increased 1.7 percent, down from 1.8 percent last quarter. Note: We calculate percentage movements using rounded index numbers. If we used unrounded index numbers, the private sector LCI would be unchanged at 1.8 percent. See data quality for more details. Public sector annual wage growth was unchanged at 1.2 percent for the fourth consecutive quarter. For pay rates that rose in the September 2015 quarter, the mean increase for the private sector was unchanged (2.9 percent). The public sector mean increase eased (to 1.7 percent, from 2.1 percent last quarter). For more detailed data about labour market statistics, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. 10 Definitions About labour market statistics The labour market statistics information release combines data from three surveys to present a broad picture of the labour market. From the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) we provide a picture of New Zealand's labour force – these statistics relate to employment, unemployment, and people not in the labour force. The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) estimates the demand for labour by New Zealand businesses – the levels and changes in employment, total weekly gross earnings, total weekly paid hours, average hourly and average weekly earnings, and average weekly paid hours in the industries we survey. The Labour Cost Index (LCI) measures changes in salary and wage rates for a fixed quantity and quality of labour input. It is a measure of wage inflation, reflecting changes in the rates that employers pay to have the same job done to the same standard. Labour force categories used in the Household Labour Force Survey has more information. 11 More definitions Business Register: the list of all economically significant enterprises in New Zealand, which is maintained by Statistics NZ. Employed: people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, did one of the following:    worked for one hour or more for pay or profit in the context of an employee/employer relationship or self-employment worked without pay for one hour or more in work which contributed directly to the operation of a farm, business, or professional practice owned or operated by a relative had a job but were not at work due to: own illness or injury, personal or family responsibilities, bad weather or mechanical breakdown, direct involvement in an industrial dispute, or leave or holiday. Employment rate: the number of employed people expressed as a percentage of the workingage population. The employment rate is closely linked to the working-age population definition. Enterprise: a business or service entity operating in New Zealand. Filled jobs: the total number of full-time jobs, part-time jobs, and working proprietors. Full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs: the total number of full-time jobs plus half the number of parttime jobs. Does not include working proprietors. Full-time jobs: jobs where the employee works for 30 hours or more per week. Full-time/part-time status: full-time workers usually work 30 hours or more per week, even if they did not do so in the survey reference week because of sickness, holidays, or other reasons. Part-time workers usually work fewer than 30 hours per week. Hours worked: actual hours are the number of hours a person worked in the reference week (including overtime). Usual hours refers to the number of hours a person normally works in a week (including overtime). Index reference period: the benchmark with which prices in other periods are compared (eg if the index number in a later period is 1150, prices have increased by 15.0 percent since the index reference period). Prices for later periods can also be compared in the same fashion. The LCI has an index reference period of the June 2009 quarter (=1000). Industry: determined from the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC) 2006. Businesses in QES are classified using ANZSIC06 industries. See ANZSIC 2006 – industry classification for more information about ANZSIC06 and its implementation into the QES and other Statistics NZ collections. Jobless: people who are either officially unemployed, available but not seeking work, or actively seeking but not available for work. The ‘available but not seeking work’ category is made up of the ‘seeking through newspaper only’, ‘discouraged’, and ‘other’ categories. Labour force: members of the working-age population, who during the survey reference week, were classified as 'employed' or 'unemployed’. 12 Labour force participation rate: the total labour force expressed as a percentage of the working-age population. Labour force participation is closely linked to how the working-age population is defined. NEET (not in employment, education, or training): young people aged 15–24 years who are unemployed (part of the labour force) and not engaged in education or training, and those not in the labour force and not engaged in education or training for many reasons. NEET rate: the total number of youth (aged 15–24 years) who are not in education, employment, or training (NEET), as a proportion of the total youth working-age population. Not in the labour force: any person in the working-age population who is neither employed nor unemployed. For example, this residual category includes people who:       are retired have personal or family responsibilities such as unpaid housework and childcare attend educational institutions are permanently unable to work due to physical or mental disabilities, were temporarily unavailable for work in the survey reference week are not actively seeking work. Part-time jobs: jobs where the employee works for less than 30 hours per week. Price index: measures the change in price between time periods for a given set of goods and services. It summarises a set of prices for a variety of goods and services collected from a number of outlets. Seasonally adjusted series: removes the seasonal component present when dealing with quarterly data. Seasonal patterns obscure the underlying behaviour of the series. Statistically significant: statistical assessment of whether a change in the series is systematic or simply due to chance. Systematic movements occur when the change is greater than its respective sampling error. Trend series: removes both the seasonal and irregular component of the series and reveals the underlying direction of movement in a series. Unemployed: all people in the working-age population who, during the reference week, were without a paid job, available for work, and had either actively sought work in the past four weeks ending with the reference week, or had a new job to start within the next four weeks. Unemployment rate: the number of unemployed people expressed as a percentage of the labour force. Working proprietors: includes sole proprietors, partners, or shareholders in a limited liability company who actively engage in the business or its management. Please note that working proprietors in businesses with no employees are outside the scope of the QES and are not included in the estimate of filled jobs. Working-age population: the usually resident, non-institutionalised, civilian population of New Zealand aged 15 years and over. 13 Related links Next release Labour Market Statistics: December 2015 quarter will be released on 3 February 2016. Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. The release calendar lists information releases by date of release. Past releases Household Labour Force Survey has links to past releases. Quarterly Employment Survey has links to past releases. Labour Cost Index (Salary and Wage Rates) has links to past releases. Related information Household Labour Force Survey population rebase from 2013 Census: Includes regional benchmarks for the revised HLFS results, which provides information on the recent population rebase. A guide to unemployment statistics (second edition) (published 2014) provides guidance to data users on the different features of four unemployment measures. User guide for wage and income measures (published 2013) has more information on the various Statistics NZ income and wage measures. Extended region and age series now available (published 2014) introduces two key classifications in response to our users' needs. Future of the Household Labour Force Survey (published 2014) outlines changes to the HLFS and how these changes will affect the survey from mid-2016 onwards. See Employment and unemployment for more reports and articles about New Zealand's labour market. 14 Data quality Period-specific information This section is for information that changes between periods.   Response rates Rounding in LCI General information This section has information about data that does not change between releases.               Comparison between HLFS and QES Comparison between LCI and QES Data sources Coverage Survey samples Weights Sampling errors Classifications Imputation Seasonal adjustment Rounding Pre- and post-calibration weight LCI specific information More information Period-specific information Response rates Survey HLFS Reference period Each week during the quarter (29 June 2015–27 September 2015) The pay week ending on, or before, 20 August 2015 Pay rates at 15 August 2015 Response rate Target: 90 percent Achieved: 85.8 percent QES Target: 89 percent Achieved: 89.5 percent LCI Target: 94 percent Achieved: 94.9 percent See New quality measures for the Household Labour Force Survey for more information on the sample rate and response rates. Rounding in LCI We round index numbers to the nearest index point, which affected some percentage increases in the September 2015 quarter. Below is a table of percentage changes calculated on unrounded index numbers. 15 Percentage changes calculated from rounded and unrounded index numbers, September 2015 quarter Quarter percentage Annual percentage change change All salary and wage rates rounded unrounded rounded unrounded Private sector 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.8 Central government 0.3 0.3 1.0 1.1 Ordinary time wage rates Private sector 0.4 0.4 1.7 1.8 Local government 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.0 General information Comparison between HLFS and QES Use HLFS – measures the number of people employed from an individual perspective. Measures the number of hours people usually and actually work. Regional estimates are more robust due to how they are weighted. QES – use when wanting to measure the number of filled jobs from a business’s perspective, or when wanting to measure the number of hours businesses pay for. Coverage HLFS – includes agricultural workers, self-employed workers, unpaid family workers, and those on unpaid leave among the employed. Limited to the working-age population, aged 15 years and older. QES – jobs filled by overseas workers resident in New Zealand for less than 12 months are included. Filled jobs are not limited by age. Reference period HLFS – surveys all weeks of the quarter. QES – based on a reference week in the middle of the quarter. Comparison between LCI and QES Use LCI – measures changes in wage inflation. QES – measures the change in hourly earnings a business has to pay on average across all jobs. Coverage LCI – jobs filled by paid employees in all occupations and in all industries except private households employing staff. QES – does not include the earnings of those working in agriculture, fisheries, or earnings from self-employment. 16 Measures LCI    Adjusted LCI measures the rates employers pay to have the same job completed to the same standard. Controls for changes in sector, industry, and occupation by assigning fixed weights. Weights reflect relative importance of job descriptions for different combinations of sectors of ownership, occupation, and industry. Unadjusted LCI measures the rates employers pay to have the same job completed to a differing standard (allowing the quality of labour within occupations to improve). QES    Reflects changes in composition of paid workforce, and changes to earnings paid by surveyed businesses within industries, and between industries. Compositional effects between industries can affect the QES when industries with higher or lower earnings than the average total hourly earnings for all industries change in relative importance (eg make up a bigger share of the total hours). Compositional changes within industries can affect the QES, as the composition of the paid workforce is reflected (eg the occupations that firms hire). Data sources HLFS We source HLFS data through surveying and interviewing across a period of 13 weeks. The information obtained relates to the week before the interview. We first interview respondents face-to-face at their home. Subsequent interviews are by telephone wherever possible. Respondents can also to file self-completed questionnaires. Where practicable, we obtain information directly from each household member. Otherwise, a proxy interview is conducted, in which we obtain details from another adult in the household. QES Data source is quarterly electronic and postal surveys. We collect quarterly data from businesses for the middle month of the respective quarter. LCI A quarterly postal survey of employers provides data for a fixed set of job descriptions. Each quarter, we survey salary and wage rates for what employers pay at the 15th of the middle month of the quarter. Survey samples HLFS The sample contains about 15,000 private households and about 30,000 individuals each quarter. We sample households on a statistically representative basis from areas throughout 17 New Zealand. The HLFS is sampled so that is representative of geographic region, urban and rural areas, ethnic density, and socio-economic characteristics of the population. Households stay in the survey for two years. Each quarter, one-eighth of the households in the sample is rotated out and replaced by a new set of households. Following every census we review the HLFS sample. After the 2013 Census, we implemented an improved sample design. The new sample will be rolled in over eight quarters. Each quarter, one-eighth of the households in the old sample is rotated out and replaced by a set of households in the new sample. By changing the sampling units one rotation group at a time, we reduce the risk of affecting the labour force outcomes. The first set of respondents in the improved design was rotated in for the December 2014 quarter. Every quarter we monitor the quality of the sample. We did not find any evidence to suggest the new rotation group was driving unexpected movements in labour force outcomes. QES Sample of approximately 18,000 business locations selected from a population of economically significant enterprises in surveyed industries. LCI We collect salary and ordinary time wage rates for about 6,000 job descriptions each quarter (and nearly 1,000 overtime descriptions). Approximately 2,000 businesses provide information. Coverage HLFS The target population for the HLFS is the civilian, usually resident, non-institutionalised population aged 15 years and over. The statistics in this release do not cover:       long-term residents of homes for older people, hospitals, and psychiatric institutions inmates of penal institutions members of the permanent armed forces members of the non-New Zealand armed forces overseas diplomats overseas visitors who expect to be a resident in New Zealand for less than 12 months. QES The QES samples economically significant enterprises in surveyed industries. An economically significant enterprise is one that meets at least one of the following criteria:   has greater than $30,000 annual GST expenses or sales has at least three employees for its rolling mean employment (the average employee count over the previous 12 months) 18     recorded over $40,000 of income in the IR10 annual tax return is part of a group of enterprises is a new GST registration that is compulsory, special, or forced is registered for GST. The QES does not include data from the agriculture, fisheries, and several smaller industries. LCI Jobs filled by paid employees in all occupations and in all industries except private households employing staff. We extended coverage to include jobs filled by paid employees aged under 15 years when the index was reweighted and re-expressed on a base of the June 2001 quarter (=1000). Weights HLFS Obtaining a sample that represents the population is essential when it comes to producing reliable labour force estimates. The HLFS goes through three stages of weighting to achieve this. First, we give every household in the HLFS sample an initial weight. This is based on the probability of the household being selected for the survey. Currently the HLFS is in a period of sample transition, where we are replacing existing sampling units with units drawn using a different design and frame. The sample transition will occur between the December 2014 and September 2016 quarters. This will affect the probabilities of a given household being selected into the survey. We apply an adjustment to the initial weights during the transition period to use data collected from both new and existing sampling units. Second, this weight is adjusted, by month and region, for households that did not respond. This results in a ‘non-response-adjusted’ weight. Third, we adjust the sample weights to known population benchmark totals (calibration process). The HLFS benchmarks are: overall sex by five-year age groups, Māori by sex by age group, and the 12 regions. This process results in a final weight for each household. Pre- and post-calibration weight The following figure shows that while the distribution of the pre- and post-calibration weights differs within a quarter, the difference between the weights typically does not change from quarter to quarter. 19 The undercoverage rate indicates how representative the pre-calibrated sample is. The higher the undercoverage rate, the less representative the pre-calibrated sample. Usually the undercoverage rate in the HLFS is around 20 percent. The overall undercoverage rate for the HLFS in the September 2015 quarter was 18.8 percent. This compares with 20.3 percent in the June 2015 quarter and 15.3 percent in the September 2014 quarter. QES We allocate weights to each of the selected business locations. These represent the population weights based on employee counts sourced from the Business Register. LCI Each job description used in calculating the index is assigned a weight that reflects the relative importance of the job description within its sector of ownership, industry, and occupation group. Weights were calculated using: 2013 Census of Population and Dwellings information on the relative importance of occupations within each sector by industry group, Business Register (previously known as Business Frame) information on the relative importance of industry groups within each sector, and pay rates surveyed in the June 2014 quarter. Sampling errors Survey data is subject to two types of possible error: sampling error and non-sampling error. Sampling error is a measure of variability that occurs by chance because we survey a sample of eligible businesses, rather than the entire population. The magnitude of the sampling error is controlled by the size of the sample and sound sample selection practice. Non-sampling error includes errors arising from biases in the patterns of response and nonresponse, inaccuracies in reporting by respondents, errors introduced by modelled data, and 20 errors in the recording and coding of data. Non-sampling error is, by definition, difficult to measure. The magnitude of non-sampling error is not measured. If a movement is larger than its corresponding sampling error, it is statistically significant. HLFS Sampling errors are calculated using the jackknife method. It is based on the variation between estimates of different subsamples taken from the whole sample. When we conduct a proxy interview, more than 90 percent of related people answer correctly for key variables. A typical proxy rate in the HLFS is around 30–35 percent. This excludes quarters when a supplement was attached to the HLFS. QES Sampling errors are calculated using the Horvitz Thompson method. LCI Based on a purposive sample (ie based on judgement); sampling errors are difficult to estimate. Classifications The labour market statistics release includes specific statistics about industry, occupation, study, ethnicity, and region. This section lists the classifications we use for these statistics.       Industry statistics (NZSIOC, based on ANZSIC06): see Industrial classification for more information Occupation statistics (ANZSCO): see occupation for more information Skill level (ANZSCO): see skill levels of New Zealand jobs for more information Māori benchmarks see Household Labour Force Survey Population Rebase: December 2008 quarter for more information Region: see regional council for more information Total response ethnicity: see Statistical Standard for Ethnicity – 2005 for more information Email info@stats.govt.nz for further information about the classifications we use. Imputation Imputation is the process of estimating data for surveyed respondents or businesses that do not respond. HLFS We impute for people who have missing values for their sex, age, or full-time employment variables (ie whether the respondent is in or seeking full-time or part-time employment). 21 QES Ratio imputation – used for businesses entering the sample in the current quarter. We use employee count from the Business Register to impute. Historical imputation – used for ongoing businesses. Data is imputed by multiplying the previous quarter’s data by the average movement of responding businesses of similar characteristics. LCI We carry forward the previous price for the relevant position that did not reply. Email info@stats.govt.nz for further information about the imputation methods, or the effects of imputation on the final dataset. Seasonal adjustment For any series, we can break the estimates down into three components:    trend (direction of the series) – for example, women increasing their labour force participation over time seasonal (typical calendar events) – for example, a large pool of students looking for work in the summertime irregular (random movements) – for example, increase in employment for a one-off event. Seasonally adjusted series have the seasonal component removed. Trend series have both the seasonal and irregular components removed, and reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series. We revise seasonally adjusted figures each quarter. This enables the seasonal component to be better estimated and then removed from the series. See Seasonal adjustment in Statistics New Zealand for more information. Rounding HLFS We round seasonally adjusted and trend series to the nearest thousand. Unadjusted series are rounded to the nearest hundred. We calculate quarterly and annual changes for figures on unrounded numbers. The one exception is percentage-point changes – which are based on rounded figures. QES Filled jobs, FTEs, total hours, and total earnings are rounded to the nearest hundred. Average hours, average earnings, and hourly earnings are rounded to two decimal places. 22 LCI Index numbers are rounded to the nearest whole number. We calculate percentage changes on rounded numbers. For this reason, total percentage changes for an index may not appear consistent with the percentage changes for its components. LCI-specific information Index calculation formula and base We calculate the LCI using the price-relatives form of the base-weighted Laspeyres formula, and express it on a base of the June 2009 quarter (=1000). The index’s calculation base is periodically updated to reflect changes in the sector of ownership of organisations. Quality control The LCI is a quality-controlled measure. Only changes in salary and wage rates for the same quality and quantity of work are reflected in the index. We achieve this by asking respondents to provide reasons for movements in salary and wage rates. If a movement is due to more than one reason, we also ask the respondents to indicate how much of the movement is due to each reason. In theory, these job descriptions should remain fixed between index revisions. In practice, many descriptions change over time, usually as a result of changes to contractual arrangements or because specific employees are being tracked through time. If a newly negotiated contract involves an increase in the number of ordinary time hours worked per week, then we amend the description and an adjustment is made to ensure that the pay rate movement used in the index relates to the same quantity of work as specified in the new contract. Similarly, rates being paid for job descriptions in the survey may change partly or wholly because employees undertaking these jobs have become more experienced, more (or less) proficient or productive, better qualified, have taken on additional responsibilities, or have been promoted. Components of salary and wage rate movements that are due to changes of this type in the quality of work are not reflected in index movements. The policy of excluding increases due to service increments and merit promotions is consistent with this approach. We also exclude one-off payments in lieu of pay rises, as they do not result in changes to pay rates, as such. Regular fixed allowances and regular fixed bonuses are included in surveyed pay rates. Where included, these are specified in job descriptions. However, we exclude payments such as commissions and irregular bonuses, as these payments are usually performance related. In instances where allowances, penal rates, and other payments (eg commissions), which have not previously been included in surveyed rates, are incorporated into base rates, only the overall effect of such changes is reflected in the index. Contract indexation Parties that engage in commercial contracts use a range of price indexes produced by Statistics NZ in their indexation clauses (also known as contract escalation clauses). An indexation clause provides both parties to a contract with an agreed procedure for adjusting an originally contracted price, to reflect changes in costs or prices during the life of the contract. 23 Contract indexation: A Guide for Businesses (published 2009) provides information on the price indexes we produce and issues relating to their use in indexation clauses. The guide also outlines some points to consider when preparing an indexation clause, and includes an example of the mechanics of a simple indexation formula. Analytical unadjusted series An analytical unadjusted index series, based on ordinary time pay rates collected in the LCI sample, is available in the tables of this release (see the 'Downloads' box). The analytical unadjusted series is an additional measure intended to complement the official LCI and QES indicators and provide customers with a fuller picture on the wages front. The analytical unadjusted series is not affected by relative employment shifts between industries and between occupations, but, in addition to price change, it does reflect quality change within occupations. In simple terms, the approaches we take in compiling the published and analytical unadjusted series are summarised as: Published index:   often tracks employees, but does not show performance-related increases or service increments commonly links in new employees (without showing change). Analytical unadjusted index:   often tracks employees, and shows performance-related increases and service increments shows any change when new employees replace incumbents. The LCI is a price index that measures change in pay rates for a fixed quality and quantity of labour input. We show price-related change in rates reported by respondents, such as those to reflect the cost of living, to match market rates, to retain staff, and to attract staff. We don't show changes in reported rates that are the result of service increments, merit promotions, increases (and decreases) relating to the performance of individual employees, and change in hours worked are not shown in the index, as they are considered to represent quality or quantity change. The analytical unadjusted index retains fixed weights for occupations within industries, within sectors of ownership, but is based on a matched sample of reported rates for the previous and current quarters before quality control. In addition to price change, it reflects quality change within occupations, such as change in the performance of individual employees, change in the qualifications, responsibility or experience of employees filling surveyed positions, and the effect of different employees replacing incumbent employees in surveyed positions at lower or higher rates. Rates for which the pay periods reported by respondents (eg per year, week, or hour) differ from those for the previous period, and rates where change is wholly or partly due to change in hours worked, are excluded from the matched sample. Typically, we exclude between 1 and 2 percent of surveyed rates from the unadjusted index each quarter for these reasons. We calculate the analytical unadjusted index using a matched sample of reported rates for the previous and current quarters. Expenditure weights are used to weight movements in reported rates from the previous quarter to the current quarter. To derive the expenditure weights, we use 24 the price changes (after quality control) of job positions in the sample (from the base period to the previous quarter) to scale base-period expenditure weights (which are then assigned to job positions in the sample). Note: the LCI is designed to measure change in pay rates for a fixed quality and quantity of labour input. The sample of surveyed pay rates is not particularly suitable for preparing a measure that includes quality change. This is due in part to the fact that some positions in the survey follow individual employees (with corresponding pay rates subject to both quality and price change) and some positions specify particular points on pay scales (which are usually subject only to price change). In general, we track individual employees for positions surveyed in the private sector, and for positions surveyed in the public sector there is a mix of points on pay scales and individual employees being tracked. The analytical unadjusted index reflects quality change within occupations. How well this is measured partly depends on how well the sample represents entrances and exits of employees, and on whether the sample replacement practice is unbiased in this regard (eg in some cases, replacement employees are incumbent employees filling other positions rather than new employees filling the existing positions – this can happen when there is a delay filling vacancies in surveyed positions). In addition, the analytical unadjusted index tends to reflect the effect of turnover in, and the cessation of, existing positions, but not the price and/or quality effect associated with employees being hired to fill new positions. An unadjusted measure designed from scratch might use the average pay rate, within each surveyed firm, of all employees filling jobs in each surveyed occupation. The published LCI is a fixed-weight price index that measures changes in pay rates for a fixed quality and quantity of labour input. The index is not affected by relative shifts in the occupational and industrial composition of the pool of paid employees. It is useful in the context of the extent to which changes in businesses' input labour costs might put pressure on the output prices they charge for goods and services. The analytical unadjusted LCI series has fixed weights for occupations within industries, within sectors of ownership, so is not affected by relative employment shifts between industries and occupations. However, it does reflect quality shifts within occupations. The index uses weights based on the mix of employment in occupations and industries evident in 2013. It does not take account of the effect of any subsequent shifts in the mix of employment in occupations and industries. In addition, it will not reflect:   the effect of very new or emerging occupations and industries the effect of employers mitigating the effect of skill shortages by substituting away from occupations showing high relative price change to occupations showing lower relative price change (eg from carpenter to builder's labourer, or from registered nurse to nurse aide). Timing of published data Labour market statistics are published within six weeks after the end of the quarter's reference period. 25 Confidentiality Only people authorised by the Statistics Act 1975 are allowed to see your individual information, and they must use it only for statistical purposes. Your information is combined with similar information from other people, households or businesses to prepare summary statistics. More information See more information about the Household Labour Force Survey See Quarterly Employment Survey for more information. Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality. Liability While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this publication. Timing Our information releases are delivered electronically by third parties. Delivery may be delayed by circumstances outside our control. Statistics NZ accept responsibility for any such delay. Crown copyright© This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981. Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 26 Revisions Household Labour Force Survey Each quarter, we apply the seasonal adjustment process to the latest quarter and all previous quarters. Every estimate is subject to revision each quarter as new data is added, which means that seasonally adjusted estimates for previous quarters may change slightly. In practice, estimates more than two years from the end-point will change little. The June 2015 quarter unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.9 percent after we applied seasonal adjustment. This table lists the changes in estimates between the current and previous quarters for the seasonally adjusted data. Percent revision from last estimate, seasonally adjusted Male not in Female not labour in labour force force Sep 2014 0.11 0.10 1.41 0.37 -0.27 -0.17 Dec 2014 -0.01 0.02 -0.65 -0.13 0.01 0.01 Mar 2015 0.00 0.01 -0.40 0.11 0.06 -0.01 Jun 2015 -0.12 -0.16 -0.21 -0.40 0.25 0.21 This table presents revisions for the trend estimates. Trend revisions are generally larger than those of the seasonally adjusted data. Quarter Male employed Female Male Female employed unemployed unemployed Percent revision from last estimate, trend Male not in Female not labour in labour Quarter force force Sep 2014 0.03 0.15 0.53 0.05 -0.10 -0.23 Dec 2014 0.04 0.03 -0.07 0.12 -0.09 -0.12 Mar 2015 0.07 0.06 -0.46 0.04 -0.24 -0.16 June 2015 -0.37 -0.24 0.28 -0.74 1.04 0.53 The table below shows the average of all such absolute revisions, expressed relatively, and gives some indication to what extent the current estimates might be revised when the revised data for the next quarter becomes available. Male employed Female Male Female employed unemployed unemployed 27 Mean absolute percent revisions Seasonally adjusted Trend 1-step 4-step 1-step 4-step Male employed 0.05 0.08 0.16 0.17 Female employed 0.06 0.1 0.24 0.24 Male unemployed 0.48 0.8 1.78 1.84 Female unemployed 0.49 0.86 1.79 1.84 Male not in labour force 0.1 0.16 0.37 0.37 Female not in labour force 0.09 0.14 0.35 0.37 In the table above, a ‘1-step ahead’ revision is one made to an estimate one quarter later. For example, if in the March 2010 quarter the seasonally adjusted estimate of females employed was first published as 1,020,000, and then in the June 2010 quarter this same estimate was revised to 1,022,000, this would be an upward revision of 0.20 percent. A ‘4-step ahead’ revision is one made to an estimate four quarters later. For example, if in the March 2010 quarter release the trend estimate of females not in the labour force was first published as 665,000 and then in the March 2011 release, one year later, the trend estimate of females not in the labour force for the March 2010 quarter was revised to 664,000, this would be a decrease of 1,000, or a downward revision of 0.15 percent. 28 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Diane Ramsay Wellington 04 931 4600 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For technical information contact: Luana Dow or Anna Howe Wellington 04 931 4600 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll free in New Zealand) +64 4 931 4600 (outside of New Zealand) Email: info@stats.govt.nz Subscription service: Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. Correction notifications: Subscribe to receive an email if a correction notice is published for the Household Labour Force Survey. Unsubscribe to correction notifications for the Household Labour Force Survey. Subscribe to all to receive an email if a correction notice is published for any of our information releases. Unsubscribe to all if you change your mind. 29 Tables See the Excel tables in the ‘Downloads’ box on this page. If you have problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs. Household labour force survey tables 1. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by sex, seasonally adjusted series 2. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by sex, trend series 3. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by sex 4. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by age group 5. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by ethnic group 6. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by regional council 7. People employed, by industry and sex 8. The jobless: those without a job and wanting a job, by sex 9. Total actual hours worked 10. People employed, by employment status and sex 11. People underemployed, by sex 12. People employed, unemployed, not in the labour force, and total actual hours worked, seasonally adjusted series 13. Harmonised unemployment rates in OECD countries, latest available 14. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force, by sex and formal study status 15. Labour force and education status of those aged 15–24 years, by age group, seasonally adjusted series. Quarterly employment survey tables 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Full-time equivalent employees (FTEs), actual, seasonally adjusted, and trend series Filled jobs, actual, seasonally adjusted, and trend series Full-time equivalent employees (FTEs), by ANZSIC06 industry Total weekly paid hours, actual, seasonally adjusted, and trend series Total weekly gross earnings, actual, seasonally adjusted, and trend series Average weekly paid hours for FTEs, actual, seasonally adjusted, and trend series Average weekly earnings for FTEs, by sector Average hourly earnings, by sector Average hourly earnings, by sex Labour cost index tables 1. Salary and wage rates by sector, all industries/occupations combined 2.1 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, public sector 2.2 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, public sector, percentage change from previous quarter 2.3 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, public sector, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 3.1 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, private sector 3.2 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, private sector, percentage change from previous quarter 3.3 Salary and wage rates by industry and by occupation, private sector, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 30 4.1 Salary and wage rates by industry, all sectors combined 4.2 Salary and wage rates by industry, all sectors combined, percentage change from previous quarter 4.3 Salary and wage rates by industry, all sectors combined, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 5.1 Salary and wage rates by occupation, all sectors combined 5.2 Salary and wage rates by occupation, all sectors combined, percentage change from previous quarter 5.3 Salary and wage rates by occupation, all sectors combined, percentage change from same quarter of previous year 6.1 Distribution of annual movements, all sectors combined 6.2 Proportions of salary and wage rates increasing, private sector and all sectors combined 6.3 Distribution of annual increases by reason, all sectors combined 7.1 Median and mean increases, all sectors combined 7.2 Median and mean increases by sector 8.1 Published and analytical unadjusted indexes for the private sector 8.2 Published and analytical unadjusted indexes for all sectors combined 9.1 Labour cost index, base expenditure weights by sector, cost, occupation, and skill level 9.2 Labour cost index, base expenditure weights by industry Supplementary tables Household labour force survey supplementary tables The following tables provide unadjusted statistics for the Canterbury region. They are similar to tables 3, 4, 7, 8, 9, 11, and 14 above. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force in Canterbury, by sex People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force in Canterbury, by age group People employed in Canterbury, by industry and sex The jobless: those without a job and wanting a job in Canterbury, by sex Total actual and usual hours worked in Canterbury Underemployment in Canterbury, by sex People employed, unemployed, and not in labour force in Canterbury, by sex and formal study status A longer time series of the supplementary tables is available on request. Labour cost index supplementary tables The following supplementary tables relate to the construction industry for Canterbury and the rest of New Zealand. 1. Regional analytical index for the construction industry, all salary and wage rates 2. Regional analytical index for the construction industry, salary and ordinary time wage rates 3. Regional analytical mean increases for the construction industry, all sectors combined Access more data on Infoshare Infoshare allows you to organise data in a way that best meets your needs. You can view the resulting tables onscreen or download them. 31 Use Infoshare For this release, select the following categories from the Infoshare homepage: Subject category: Work Income and Spending Groups: Household Labour Force Survey – [HLF], Earnings and Employment Survey (QES) – [QEX], and Labour Cost Index – [LCI] Next release Labour Market Statistics: December 2015 quarter will be released on 3 February 2016 32