7

 

2014 BUSINESS PLAN CAPITAL COST ESTIMATE

UPDATE 

 

2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SUMMARY COSTS BY PHASE
• High and Low Costs (millions, 2012 $$)
PHASE

2012 Low

FCS

$

IOS

2012 High
5,444

2014 Low

2014 High

$

5,444

$

5,672

$

5,672

$

27,344 $

31,923

$

35,754

$

38,236

B2B

$

42,042 $

49,904

$

49,984

$

55,439

PH 1

$

54,371 $

63,441

$

56,942

$

63,091

• Phase I Low Cost increased $2.6 billion or 4.7%
• Phase I High Cost decreased $0.3 billion or 0.5%
DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SUMMARY COSTS BY SECTION
• High and Low Costs (millions, 2012 $$)
$18,000

$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
2012 Low

$10,000

2012 High
2014 Low

$8,000

2014 High
$6,000
FEIR/S or Staff
Recommended
Preferred Alignment

$4,000
$2,000
$SF-SJ

DRAFT

SJ-M

M-F

F-B

B-P

P-LA

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
DESIGN DEVELOPMENT STAGE
Environmental Section
San Francisco to San Jose

Design Stage 2012 BP

Design Stage 2014 BP

5% Design

5% Design

San Jose to Merced

Draft 15% Design

Draft 15% Design

Merced to Fresno

Final 15% Design

15% - PE4P Design

Fresno to Bakersfield

Final 15% Design

15% - PE4P Design

Bakersfield to Palmdale

5% Design

5% - Draft 15% Design

Palmdale to Los Angeles

5% Design

5% Design

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
ALIGNMENT ALTERNATIVES
Environmental Section

Low Cost Alignment
Alternative

High Cost Alignment
Alternative

San Francisco to San Jose

Blended Operation
East of UPRR /Pacheco Pass
SR152/Henry Miller Avenue 24

Blended Operation
US101 trench/Pacheco
Pass/Henry Miller Avenue 21

San Jose to Merced
Merced to Fresno

Fresno to Bakersfield
Bakersfield to Palmdale
Palmdale to Los Angeles

Hybrid/Avenue 24 Alternative
Hanford East/WascoShafter/Bakersfield Hybrid
elevated alignment

Hybrid/Avenue 24 Alternative
Hanford East/WascoShafter/Bakersfield Hybrid
elevated alignment

Oak Creek Alignment*
SR14West/Santa Clarita
South/elevated LAUS approach

Tehachapi Alignment
SR14East/Santa Clarita
North/tunnel LAUS approach

*Low cost alignment was developed as a derivative of the high cost option
reflecting potential cost saving measures being implemented in the Oak Creek
alignment alternative currently under study.

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT ASSUMPTIONS
• Unit Price Elements reflect 25% markup for Contractor’s
overhead and profit;
• Allocated contingencies range from 10% to 25% per cost
category;
• Unallocated contingency is assumed at 5% of construction and
ROW acquisition costs;

• Soft costs assumed as % of construction costs:
• 2% of total Construction for PE/E
• 3% of total Construction for PM
• 6% of total Construction for Final Design (3% for tunnels)
• 4% of total Construction for CM
• 0.5% of total Construction for Agency Costs
• 6% of Systems and Electrification for Testing

• Temporary facilities and indirect costs at 4%

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT INCLUSIONS
• CP1 award costs including provisional sums and approved
contingency;
• SR 99 relocation costs per Caltrans agreement ($225.9 million);
• CP1 agreements with 3rd parties ($80 million);
• ‘Sunk costs’ (PM and PE/E, not including Authority's costs) from
FY06/07 through FY12/13 ($497 million);
• Projected cost for PE/E effort going forward ($539 million);
• Connection to the Utility Grid costs ($960 million);
• ‘Early Projects’ allowance for LA-ANA ($519 million).

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT EXCLUSIONS
• Escalation to Year of Expenditure;
• Overtime or accelerated schedule;

• Post-Construction Costs;
• Costs to implement interim service over FCS.

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
• Market Conditions – CP1 Bid Average Adjustment
CP1 Bid Results vs. Budget
$1,800
$1,600
$1,400
$1,200
$1,000
$800
$600
$400
$200
$0

$1,238

$1,407

YOE, millions

• CP1 bid-average price is 88% of the CP1 Budget value;
• Adjustment factor of 12% was applied on the UPEs for similar projectwide scope;
• Accounts for $2.3 billion adjustment to Phase 1 costs in 2012
DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
• Escalation to Base Year
• Estimate is based on 2009 pricing
• Escalation has been per ENR published CCIs:

– Industry recognized historic escalation index
– Based on a hypothetical assembly of:
– 200 hour of common labor
– 2,500 lb of structural steel
– 1.126 tons of portland cement
– 1,088 ft of 2x4 lumber

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
• Escalation by Component Weights*
Aggregated Escalation Factor
15.00%

15.20%
25.80%

Concrete
6.40%

10.00%

Steel
Labor

Concrete
5.00%

Steel

Equipment

8.70%

Other

Labor

0.00%

44.00%

2009
-5.00%

2010

2011

2012

Equipment

Other
Overall

*Based on rail transit projects nation-wide.

Price Indexes:

-10.00%
-15.00%

• Steel – ENR price index
• Concrete – ENR price index
• Equipment - BLS data
• Labor – Prevailing wage agreements
• Other – Consumer Price Index

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
• Escalation Index – ENR vs. Component Weights
• Reflects an escalation approach targeting linear rail construction
• Founded on published cost indexes in California and nationally
• Accounts for $370-$410 million increase to Phase 1 costs in 2012 dollars.
Compound Escalation Rates
8.00%
7.00%

6.73%
6.08%

6.00%
5.00%
4.15%

4.00%

ENR CCI
Component Weights

3.00%
2.00%

1.93%

2.13%

1.00%
0.65%

0.00%
2010

2011

2012

DRAFT

 DRAFT

2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
COMPARISON TO 2012 BY CATEGORY
$14,000

$12,000

$12,000

$10,000

$10,000

$8,000

$8,000
$6,000

$6,000

$4,000
$2,000

2012 BP, Low

$4,000

2012 BP, High

2014 BP, Low

$2,000

2014 BP, High

$Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$-

Env. Section

2012 Low

2012 High

2014 Low

2014 High

SF-SJ

$

5,686

$

5,686

$

3,977

$

3,977

SJ-M

$

13,733

$

17,017

$

13,195

$

16,168

M-F

$

3,863

$

6,859

$

4,110

$

4,110

F-B

$

6,425

$

7,460

$

8,479

$

8,479

B-P

$

7,733

$

7,953

$

10,023

$

10,906

P-LA

$

12,557

$

14,092

$

12,645

$

14,937

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
PROGRAM-WIDE UPDATES
$350

• Environmental Mitigation

$300

• Based on scope definition in M-F
section;

$250

• Adjusted for level of development;

$150

• Adjusted for relation to grade.

$100

$200
2012 BP
2014 BP

$50
$-

• ROW Acquisition

SF-SJ

Section

ROW Cost Update

Contingency

SF-SJ

June, 2011

20%

SJ-M

June, 2011

10%

M-F

April, 2013

25%

F-B

August, 2012

10%

B-P

June, 2013

10%

P-LA

April, 2013

25%

SJ-M

M-F

F-B

B-P

P-LA

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SAN FRANCISCO – SAN JOSE
$2,500

$2,500

$2,000

$2,000

$1,500

$1,500

$1,000

$1,000
2012 BP, Low
2014 BP, Low

$500

2014 BP, High

$500

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$-

2012 BP, High

• $1,710 million reduction:
• Reduction in Transbay allowance to $500 million
• Transfer of TSMF to SJ-M section
• Reductions in viaducts and walls due to CP1 adjustment
DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
SAN JOSE - MERCED
$3,500

$3,500

$3,000

$3,000

$2,500

$2,500

$2,000

$2,000

$1,500

$1,500
2012 BP, Low

$1,000

2012 BP, High

$1,000

2014 BP, High

$500

$-

$Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$500

• $540 - $850 million reduction:

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

2014 BP, Low

• Reduction in viaducts due to CP1 adjustment
• Reduction in grade separations due to CP1 adjustment
• Reduction in utility relocations
• Reduction in mitigation due to tunneling
• Added Sunk Costs and PE/E allowance

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
MERCED - FRESNO
$700

$3,000

$600

$2,500

$500
$2,000
$400
$1,500
$300
2012 BP, Low
$200

2012 BP, High

$1,000

2014 BP, Low

$-

$-

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$100

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

2014 BP, High
$500

• $250 million increase to $2,750 million decrease:
• Increase in ROW acquisition costs
• Reductions in grade separations due to CP1 adjustment
• Significant cost reduction by adoption of Hybrid Alternative
DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
FRESNO - BAKERSFIELD
$2,500

$2,500

$2,000

$2,000

$1,500

$1,500

$1,000

$1,000

2012 BP, High

2012 BP, Low
2014 BP, Low

$500

2014 BP, High

$500

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$-

$-

• $2,050 million increase (low vs. preferred):
• More viaducts in through town alignments

• Allowance for taller viaducts over Kings River complex
• Added station access roadways at Hanford
• Increased Utilities and ROW acquisition costs
• Added Sunk Costs and PE/E allowance

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
BAKERSFIELD - PALMDALE
$3,500

$3,000

$3,000

$2,500

$2,500

$2,000

$2,000
$1,500
$1,500
2012 BP, Low

$1,000

2012 BP, High

$1,000

2014 BP, High

$-

$Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$500

$500

• $2,290 - $2,950 million increase:

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

2014 BP, Low

• Significant increases in cut/fill quantities
• Very tall and long span viaduct structures
• Access roadways, lateral and along alignment

• Included TSMF from P-LA section
• Increased Utilities and ROW acquisition costs
• Added Sunk Costs and PE/E allowance

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
PALMDALE – LOS ANGELES
$6,000

$5,000
$4,500

$5,000

$4,000
$3,500

$4,000

$3,000
$3,000

$2,500
$2,000
2012 BP, Low

$1,500

2014 BP, Low

$1,000

2012 BP, High

$2,000

2014 BP, High
$1,000

$500
Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

• $90 - $845 million increase:

Track
Earthwork
Viaducts
Tunnels
Trenches
Facilities
Grade Seps
Utilities
Demo & Temp.
Mitigation
Walls & Barriers
Systems
Electrification
ROW
Prof. Serv.

$-

$-

• Increase in tunneling costs due to unit price update
• Transfer of TSMF to B-P section
• Reduction in environmental mitigation due to tunneling
• Increased ROW acquisition costs
• Added Sunk Costs and PE/E allowance

DRAFT

 2014 BUSINESS PLAN ESTIMATE
FOLLOW UP ACTIONS
• Escalation to YOE – in P6 utilizing KPMG inflation rates
• Confirm limits of implementation stages – IOS terminus
• Arrange for Independent Cost Estimate (ICE)
• Implement sensitivity analyses where feasible

DRAFT

 THANK