Subnational Ethnic Population Projections:
2013(base)–2038
Embargoed until 10:45am – 30 September 2015

Key facts
Subnational ethnic population projections indicate the future population living in New Zealand's 16
regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas
(LBAs) for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)',
Māori, Asian, and Pacific.
The low, medium, and high growth projections indicate that between 2013 and 2038:
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The population growth rate for all four ethnic groups will slow in all areas.
All ethnic populations will gradually age, with more people aged 65 years and over.

The medium projection indicates that between 2013 and 2038:
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The Asian and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions and TAs.
The Māori ethnic population will grow in all regions and 62 TAs, and decline in 5 TAs.
The 'European or Other' ethnic population will grow in 11 regions and decline in 5, and grow in 37
TAs and decline in 30.
The Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will all increase their share of the total population
in most areas because their growth rates are higher than the total population.

Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician, ISSN 2463-3178, 30 September 2015

 Commentary
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Important advice for using these projections
Ethnic populations growing in most areas
Māori, Asian, and Pacific shares increasing in nearly all areas
Asian and Pacific concentration in Auckland
Different drivers of ethnic growth
All ethnic populations are ageing

Important advice for using these projections
Subnational ethnic population projections give an indication of the future population usually living
in New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas (TAs), and 21
Auckland local board areas (LBAs) for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or
Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific. These groupings of ethnicities are
not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with more than one ethnicity. People
are included in each ethnic population they identify with.
The projections indicate probable outcomes based on different combinations of fertility, mortality,
migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. Users can make their own judgement as to
which projections are most suitable for their purposes.
These projections are not predictions. They should be used as an indication of the overall trend,
rather than as exact forecasts. The projections are updated every 2–3 years to maintain their
relevance and usefulness, by incorporating new information about demographic trends and
developments in methods.
At the time of release, the medium projection is considered suitable for assessing future
population change and is consistent with the median projection (50th percentile) of the National
Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038 (released 21 May 2015) and the medium
projection of the Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043 (released 19 February
2015).
The following results highlight the main trends from the projections, based on the medium
projection results unless otherwise stated.
See population projections tables for links to more detailed projection assumptions and results in
NZ.Stat.

2

 Note: This Pacific graph has been changed since first published. See Correction page for more
information.

Ethnic populations growing in most areas
The broad Māori, Asian, and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all regions between 2013 and
2038, while the 'European and Other' population is expected to grow in 11 of the 16 regions.
Under the medium projection, fewer people will identify with a 'European or Other' ethnicity in
Hawke's Bay, Manawatu-Wanganui, Marlborough, West Coast, and Southland by 2038.
The Asian and Pacific ethnic populations will grow in all TAs between 2013 and 2038, while the
'European and Other' population is expected to grow in 37 of the 67 TAs. Five TAs are expected
to have fewer people of Māori ethnicity in 2038 – Kawerau, Opotiki, Wairoa, and Ruapehu
districts and Chatham Islands territory, all areas with projected overall population loss.
The Māori ethnic population will grow in all Auckland LBAs between 2013 and 2038, while the
'European and Other' population is expected to grow in 14 of the 21 Auckland LBAs. By 2038,
the Asian population in Manurewa and the Pacific population in Waitemata are projected to be
slightly lower than in 2013 under the medium projection.
Despite the increases, all ethnic populations in all areas are projected to experience declining
rates of population growth as their populations gradually age. This will result in lower rates of
natural increase (births minus deaths) over the projection period.

Māori, Asian, and Pacific shares increasing in nearly all areas
The Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations will all increase their share of the total population in all
regions, most TAs, and most Auckland LBAs between 2013 and 2038 because of their higher

3

 growth rates. In contrast, the 'European or Other' population is likely to reduce its share of the
total population in all regions, most TAs, and all Auckland LBAs because of its lower growth
rates.
The Māori population will make up about 61 percent of the Gisborne population in 2038, up
from 49 percent in 2013. Other regions with a significant increase in the Māori share include
Northland (up 12 percentage points to 45 percent in 2038), Taranaki (up 10 percentage points
to 28 percent in 2038), Hawke's Bay (up 9 percentage points to 34 percent in 2038), and
Manawatu-Wanganui (up 9 percentage points to 31 percent in 2038).
In Auckland, 1 in 3 people are likely to identify with an Asian ethnicity in 2038, up from about 1 in
4 in 2013. Other regional increases in the Asian share include Wellington (up 8 percentage
points to 19 percent in 2038), Bay of Plenty (up 7 percentage points to 12 percent in 2038), and
Nelson (up 7 percentage points to 12 percent in 2038).
The Pacific population will make up about 18 percent of the Auckland population in 2038, up
from about 15 percent in 2013. Other regional increases in the Pacific share include Hawke's
Bay (up 5 percentage points to 10 percent in 2038), Northland (up 5 percentage points to 8
percent in 2038), and Gisborne (up 5 percentage points to 9 percent in 2038).
The 'European or Other' population share in Auckland is projected to drop from about 59 percent
in 2013 to 47 percent in 2038. Other regional decreases in the 'European or Other' share include
Otago (down 8 percentage points to 83 percent in 2038), Marlborough (down 7 percentage
points to 84 percent in 2038), Wellington (down 6 percentage points to 72 percent in 2038), and
Canterbury (down 6 percentage points to 82 percent in 2038).
For comparison, the mid-range national level projections indicate the:
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Māori population will make up nearly 20 percent of the total New Zealand population in
2038, compared with nearly 16 percent in 2013
Asian population will make up 21 percent, compared with 12 percent in 2013
Pacific population will make up 11 percent, compared with 8 percent in 2013
'European or Other' population will make up 66 percent, compared with 75 percent in
2013.

The ethnic shares do vary across different age groups, reflecting different age structures and
dynamics of population growth.
In addition, about 1 percent of New Zealand’s population identified with Middle Eastern, Latin
American, or African (MELAA) ethnicities in 2013. National and subnational projections are not
available for this small, albeit growing, ethnic group with an estimated resident population of
53,000 at 30 June 2013. About 28,000 or 53 percent of the MELAA population lived in Auckland
in 2013.

4

  change in ethnic shares

Medium projection by regional council area


 

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Asian and Pacific concentration in Auckland
The projections indicate that almost two-thirds of New Zealand's Asian population will continue to
live in Auckland. The proportion was 64.5 percent in 2013 and under the medium projection this
drops slightly to 63.5 percent in 2038. The proportions living in other regions also change only
slightly. For example, Canterbury will increase its share of the Asian population from 7.7 percent
in 2013 to 8.6 percent in 2038.
The Pacific population is similarly strongly represented in Auckland. The proportion was 65.9
percent in 2013 and under the medium projection this drops to 62.3 percent in 2038. The
proportion living in Wellington drops from 11.8 percent in 2013 to 8.9 percent over the same
period. This is offset by small increases in every other region.
In 2013, roughly one-quarter (26.8 percent) of the 'European and Other' population lived in
Auckland. Auckland is expected to slightly increase its proportion to 27.9 percent in 2038.
Similarly, 1 in 4 (25.2 percent) Māori will live in Auckland in 2038, a small increase from 24.5
percent in 2013. Overall, Auckland is projected to be home to 38.6 percent of New Zealand's
population in 2038, compared with 33.6 percent in 2013.
The projections also indicate changes within Auckland. By 2038, the broad Asian population is
projected to become the largest group in the Whau, Puketapapa, and Howick local board areas.
The broad Pacific group will become the largest group in the Manurewa local board area, and
remain the largest group in Mangere-Otahuhu.
There will be a relatively even spread of the four major ethnic groups in the Henderson-Massey,
Maungakiekie-Tamaki, and Papakura local board areas. In these areas, each ethnic group will
account for between 15 and 45 percent of the local population in 2038.
Under the medium projection, Auckland will account for about three-fifths of New Zealand's total
population growth between 2013 and 2038. Partly reflecting the current ethnic distribution of
population, Auckland is projected to account for a similar share of both Asian and Pacific
population growth over the same period, about two-fifths of the 'European or Other' population
growth, and about one-quarter of the Māori population growth.

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Projected Asian population change
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Note: This Pacific graph has been changed since first published. See Correction page for more
information.

Different drivers of ethnic growth
The different rates of population growth largely reflect past and likely future differences in fertility,
the effect of intermarriage, different age structures, and different migration patterns.
Māori and Pacific population growth will be mainly driven by their high rates of birth and natural
increase (births minus deaths). For example, assumed medium regional 'total fertility rates' for
2014–18 for Māori range from 1.7 births per woman in Otago to 3.0 births per woman in
Northland. For the Pacific ethnic group they range from 1.7 births per woman in Tasman to 3.2
births per woman in Hawke's Bay. In contrast, for the 'European or Other' ethnic group they
range from 1.7 births per woman in Otago and Wellington to 2.2 births per woman in Hawke's
Bay and Taranaki. For the Asian ethnic group they range from 1.2 births per woman in Otago to
2.2 births per woman in Taranaki.
Ethnic intermarriage (parents with different ethnicities) also makes an important contribution to
Māori and Pacific population growth. Nationally, in about one-quarter of Māori births (ie where
the child is identified as Māori), the mother is non-Māori and the father is Māori. Similarly, in
about one-quarter of Pacific births (ie where the child is identified as Pacific), the mother is nonPacific and the father is Pacific.
In addition, the Māori, Asian, and Pacific populations have a much younger age structure, with
relatively high proportions at the child and childbearing ages, and low proportions at the older
ages. These age structures provide greater built-in momentum for future growth compared with
the 'European or Other' population. Half the 'European or Other' population is aged over 41
years, compared with median ages of 24, 31, and 22 years for the Māori, Asian, and Pacific
populations, respectively, in 2013.
The increase in the Asian population share will be largely driven by net migration (arrivals minus
departures). The medium projection assumes a net inflow of about 360,000 migrants nationally
over the 25-year period. Natural increase will account for about 260,000 (two-fifths) of the
projected Asian population growth.

8

 In contrast, the projected lower 'European or Other' population growth largely reflects the
combination of lower fertility rates and an older age structure. The increasingly older age
structure means fewer births (because fewer women will be in the childbearing ages), more
deaths (because more people will be in the older ages where most deaths occur), and lower
momentum for future population growth compared with the Māori and Pacific populations.
In summary, natural increase is projected to be the main component of population growth for the
'European or Other', Māori, and Pacific populations during 2013–38. Net migration plays a more
important role in the projected growth of the Asian population, while inter-ethnic mobility plays a
relatively minor role for all ethnic populations.

All ethnic populations are ageing
The projections indicate that all four broad ethnic populations will gradually age over the coming
decades. Increasing numbers and proportions of people in the older ages reflect the combined
effect of gradually reducing fertility rates – people having fewer children – and people living
longer.
Generally, the Māori and Pacific populations will continue to have a much younger age structure
than the 'European or Other' and Asian populations in each area. In Auckland, for example, the
median age is projected to increase for the:
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Māori population from 24 years in 2013 to 29 years in 2038
Pacific population from 23 years in 2013 to 28 years in 2038
'European or Other' population from 39 years in 2013 to 43 years in 2038
Asian population from 31 years in 2013 to 37 years in 2038.

For more detailed data see the Excel tables in the ‘Downloads’ box. Go to our population
projections tables page for links to more detailed projection assumptions and results in NZ.Stat.

9

 Definitions
About subnational ethnic population projections
Subnational ethnic population projections give an indication of the future ethnic composition of
the population usually living in the 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority
areas (TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs) of New Zealand. Projections are
available for four broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or Other (including New
Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific. Each ethnic population consists of all people who identify
with ethnicities within that ethnic group. People who identify with more than one ethnicity are
included in each ethnic population they identify with. The projections are based on different
combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions.
These projections are not predictions. The projections should be used as an indication of the
overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts. The projections are updated every 2–3 years to
maintain their relevance and usefulness, by incorporating new information about demographic
trends and developments in methods.

How ethnic population projections are used
Ethnic population projections contribute to an understanding of New Zealand's changing
demography. Local and ethnic communities use them to understand their changing populations.
They are used in planning and policy-making in areas such as health and education. For
example, changes in the number and proportion of people at different ages can have implications
for future need for services.

More definitions
Assumption: statement about a future course of behaviour (eg fertility, mortality, migration) from
which projections of the population are derived.
Base population: the starting population for the projections.
Cohort: a group of people sharing a common experience. For example, the 1900 birth cohort
refers to people born in the year 1900.
Estimated resident population: an estimate of all people who usually live in New Zealand at a
given date. It includes:
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

all residents present in New Zealand and counted by the census (census usually resident
population count)
residents who are temporarily overseas (who are not included in the census)
an adjustment for residents missed or counted more than once by the census (net census
undercount).

It excludes visitors from overseas.
Ethnicity: the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is
self-perceived and people can identify with more than one ethnicity. Ethnicity is different from
ancestry, birthplace, and nationality. For example, people can identify with Māori ethnicity even

10

 though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to
not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor.
See Review of the measurement of ethnicity or the ethnicity classification for more information
about ethnicity including information about the Statistical Standard for Ethnicity 2005.
'European or Other (including New Zealander)': includes people who belong to the 'European'
or 'Other' ethnicity groups. People who belong to both groups are only counted once. Almost all
people in the 'Other' ethnicity group belong to the New Zealander sub-group.
Separate projections are not available for the 'European' or for the 'Other (including New
Zealander)' ethnic groups. This is because sufficient demographic data is available to derive
projections for the combined ethnic grouping, but not for the separate ethnic groups. This
approach is consistent with Guidelines for using ethnicity data: 2006 Census.
Fertility: the demographic process relating to births, often summarised by birth rates and fertility
rates. Fertility should not be confused with fecundity, which is the biological capacity of a
population to bear children.
Inter-ethnic mobility (IEM): people changing their ethnic identification over time. This may
reflect a person's cultural affiliations changing over time. Or it may occur when different people
respond to the ethnicity question. For example, the ethnicity of babies and young children is
usually identified by their parents. However, in a later census when these children are old
enough to complete their own forms, they decide which ethnicity they identify with. This may
differ from the ethnicity identified by their parents. IEM can also occur when different ethnicities
are reported for a person in different collections (eg birth registrations, death registrations,
census).
Life expectancy (period): the average length of life remaining at a given age, assuming people
experience the age-specific death rates of a given period from the given age onwards. For
example, life expectancy at birth for the period 2005–07 is based on death rates in that period,
and takes no account of changes in death rates after that period.
Local board area (Auckland): an area governed by local boards and Auckland council.
Auckland has 21 local board areas, based on boundaries at 1 January 2015.
Median age: half the population is younger, and half the population is older, than this age.
Medium projection: the mid-range projection, consistent with the median projection (50th
percentile) of the national population projections. Low and high growth projections are also
produced for each area, to give an indication of plausible alternative population outcomes.
Mortality: the demographic process relating to deaths, often summarised by death rates,
survival rates, and life expectancy.
Natural increase: the excess of live births over deaths. When deaths exceed births, this is
described as a natural decrease or a negative natural increase.
Percentile: indicates the distribution of values (such as projection results or assumptions). For
example, in the stochastic national ethnic population projections, the 25th percentile indicates an
estimated 25 percent chance that the actual result will be lower, and a 75 percent chance that
the actual result will be higher, than this percentile.

11

 Percentiles are non-additive except the 50th percentile (median). For example, percentiles for
the population aged 15–39 and 40–64 years cannot be added together to give the equivalent
percentile for the population aged 15–64 years.
Projection: indication of the future characteristics of a population based on an assessment of
past trends and assumptions about the future course of demographic behaviour (eg fertility,
mortality, migration).
Regional council area (or region): an area governed by a regional council. New Zealand
has 16 regional council areas, based on boundaries at 1 January 2015.
Resident population concept: a statistical basis for a population in terms of those who usually
live in a given area at a given time. For example, the 'estimated resident population' of New
Zealand is an estimate of all people who usually live in New Zealand at a given date, including
New Zealand residents who are temporarily overseas, but excluding visitors from overseas.
Stochastic (probabilistic) projection: a projection that varies randomly according to the
probability distributions of the assumptions (eg about fertility, mortality, migration).
Territorial authority area: an area governed by a territorial authority. New Zealand has 67
territorial authority areas (12 cities, 53 districts, Auckland, and the Chatham Islands territory),
based on boundaries at 1 January 2015.
Total fertility rate (period): the average number of live births that women would have during
their life if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates of a given period. For example, the
total fertility rate for the year 2011 is based on fertility rates in that year, and takes no account of
changes in fertility rates after that year.
Total paternity rate (period): the average number of live births that men would have during
their life if they experienced the age-specific paternity rates of a given period. In these ethnic
population projections, it specifically refers to births that men of a given ethnic group have with
women not of that ethnic group. For example, the average number of live births that Māori men
would have during their life with non-Māori women.

12

 Related links
Next releases
National Ethnic Population Projections and Subnational Ethnic Population Projections will be
next released in 2017.
Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form.
The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release.

Related information
National ethnic population projections: indicate the future population of New Zealand for four
broad and overlapping ethnic groups: 'European or Other (including New Zealander)', Māori,
Asian, and Pacific.
National population projections: indicate the future population of New Zealand.
Subnational population projections: indicate the future population of regional
council areas, territorial authority areas, and Auckland local board areas.
Area unit population projections: indicate the future population of area units ('suburbs').
National population estimates: show quarterly and annual changes in the population of New
Zealand.
Subnational population estimates: show historical annual changes in the population of regional
council areas, territorial authority areas, and Auckland local board areas.
Local population trends: graphs and tables for each regional council area, territorial authority
area, and Auckland local board area.
Estimated resident population 2013: Data sources and methods: describes the data sources and
methods used to produce the 2013 estimated resident population following the 2013 Census of
Population and Dwellings.

13

 Data quality
Period-specific information
This section contains data information that has changed since the last release.
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Reference period
Consistency with other projections
Changes since the previous 2006-base projections

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o Review of assumptions
o Geographic classification
Projection assumptions

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o Base population
o Fertility and paternity
o Mortality
o Migration
o Inter-ethnic mobility
Which projection should I use?

General information
This section contains information that does not change between releases.
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Ethnic concept
'European or Other (including new Zealander)'
Availability of other ethnic projections
Method
Nature of projections
Rounding
Accuracy
Timing of published data
Confidentiality
More information

Period-specific information
Reference period
This release contains 2013-base projections for four broad and overlapping ethnic populations
usually living in New Zealand's 16 regional council areas (regions), 67 territorial authority areas
(TAs), and 21 Auckland local board areas (LBAs). Projections are available for: 'European or
Other (including New Zealander)', Māori, Asian, and Pacific. Each ethnic population consists of
all people who identify with ethnicities within that broad ethnic group. People who identify with
more than one ethnicity are included in each ethnic population they identify with.
The projections supersede the updated 2006-base projections released in September 2010. The
new projections have the estimated resident population of each ethnic group at 30 June 2013 as
a base, and cover the period to 2038 at five-year intervals.

14

 Consistency with other projections
These subnational ethnic population projections complement the New Zealand projections of
ethnic populations (National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038) released on 21
May 2015. However, only the median projection (50th percentile) of the national ethnic
population projections and the medium projection of these subnational ethnic population
projections are directly comparable. Other percentiles or projections cannot be directly compared
because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.
These subnational ethnic population projections also complement the projections of
subnational total populations (Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043) released
on 19 February 2015. However, only the medium projections of each are directly comparable.
Other projections cannot be directly compared because the projection assumptions may be
incompatible.

Changes since the previous 2006-base projections
Review of assumptions
Deriving the projections involves reviewing all projection assumptions for each area and each
ethnic group. These subnational ethnic population projections are updated to incorporate the
latest demographic information, notably the 2013-base subnational population projections
(released 19 February 2015) and 2013-base national ethnic population projections (released 21
May 2015), which both incorporated results from the 2013 Census of Population and Dwellings
and subsequent population estimates. Birth and death registrations and international travel and
migration data are also important data sources.
The changes in these subnational ethnic population projections from the previous 2006-base
projections (September 2010 update) mainly relate to the base population and short-term
migration assumptions.
Geographic classification
The population projections in this release are based on the regional council, territorial authority,
and Auckland local board classifications and boundaries at 1 January 2015.

Projection assumptions
Projection assumptions are formulated after analysis of short-term and long-term historical
trends, information provided by local planners, and government policy. See Subnational ethnic
population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)–2038 table in NZ.Stat for a summary
of the low, medium, and high projection assumptions for each area and each ethnic group.
Base population
These projections have as a base the estimated resident population of each area and each
ethnic group at 30 June 2013. This population was based on the census usually resident
population count of each area and each ethnic group at 5 March 2013 and adjusted for:
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non-response to the census ethnicity question
net census undercount
residents temporarily overseas on census night

15

 
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births, deaths, and net migration between census night (5 March 2013) and 30 June 2013
reconciliation with demographic estimates at ages 0–9 years.

The 'Estimated resident population (ERP), adjustments to derive ERP at 30 June 2013 (from
census usually resident population)' table in NZ.Stat summarises the ERP, and adjustments to
derive ERP, for each area and each ethnic group.
Fertility and paternity
New birth cohorts are added to the population by applying fertility assumptions to the female
population of childbearing age (12–49 years) and paternity assumptions to the male population
(15–54 years). The paternity rates allow for births that men of a given ethnic group have with
women not of that ethnic group. For example, Māori paternity rates allow for births that Māori
men have with non-Māori women.
The assumed fertility and paternity rates for each area and each ethnic group are based on the
registered births during the period 2013–15, and change that is consistent with the fertility and
paternity assumptions from the National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038. Under
the national median assumption, the total fertility rate decreases between 2014 and 2038 for the:

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'European or Other' population from 1.91 to 1.85 births per woman
Māori population from 2.47 to 2.20 births per woman
Asian population from 1.64 to 1.60 births per woman
Pacific population from 2.75 to 2.30 births per woman.

Under the national median assumption, the total paternity rate decreases between 2014 and
2038 for the:
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

'European or Other' population from 0.14 to 0.13 births per man (with non-European and
non-Other women)
Māori population from 1.02 to 0.90 births per man (with non-Māori women)
Asian population from 0.18 to 0.15 births per man (with non-Asian women)
Pacific population from 1.01 to 0.90 births per man (with non-Pacific women).

The fertility and paternity assumptions are derived for the purpose of projecting each population
and should not be used as a precise measure of fertility or paternity differentials between areas
or ethnic groups.
The projections allow for births to parents of each ethnic group that are not registered as children
of that ethnic group. The medium assumed loss factor is 1.8 percent for 'European or Other', 4.0
percent for Māori, 2.4 percent for Asian, and 3.2 percent for Pacific, based on national-level data
for 2006–14.
The low and high assumptions for fertility rates, paternity rates, and the loss factor are chosen to
represent plausible alternative fertility and paternity scenarios for each area and each ethnic
group.
The projections allocate births between male and female. A sex ratio at birth of 105.5 males per
100 females is assumed for each area and ethnic group, based on national-level data for
1996–2014.

16

 Mortality
Mortality assumptions are applied to each age-sex group to allow for deaths. The assumed
mortality rates for each area and ethnic group are based on registered deaths for each area
during the period 2013–15, and change that is consistent with the mortality assumptions from the
National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038. Under the national median
assumption, period life expectancy at birth increases between 2014 and 2038 for the:

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

'European or Other' population from 80.7 to 85.0 years for males, and from 84.2 to 88.3
years for females
Māori population from 73.4 to 81.3 years for males, and from 77.3 to 84.7 years for
females
Asian population from 84.8 to 88.7 years for males, and from 87.2 to 91.1 years for
females
Pacific population from 74.6 to 82.1 years for males, and from 78.8 to 85.8 years for
females.

The mortality assumptions are derived for the purpose of projecting each population and should
not be used as a precise measure of mortality differentials between areas or ethnic groups.
The low and high mortality assumptions are chosen to represent plausible alternative fertility and
paternity scenarios for each area and each ethnic group.
Migration
Migration assumptions are applied to each age-sex group to allow for net migration (arrivals
minus departures). Migration at the subnational level has both an internal (to/from other areas of
New Zealand) and an external (to/from overseas) component, although these separate
components are difficult to quantify. For example, ethnicity is not collected in external migration
data. The assumed net migration levels and age-sex patterns for each area and ethnic group are
based on a consideration of:






observed net migration during each intercensal period from 1996 to 2013
the capacity of each area for further growth (for areas with net inflow)
whether historical outflows can be sustained (for areas with net outflow)
information available from and about local authorities relating to current and future
developments that may affect population change
the latest migration assumptions from the National Ethnic Population Projections:
2013(base)–2038 and Subnational Population Projections: 2013(base)–2043.

Migration assumptions at the subnational level generally reflect the assumptions at the national
level. 'European or Other', Māori, and Asian net migration is assumed to be higher during
2014–18 than subsequent periods. For 2019–38, the migration assumptions reflect average
annual net migration over that period, although annual net migration can be expected to vary
from year to year.
The low and high net migration assumptions represent plausible alternative migration scenarios
for each area and each ethnic group. They therefore do not sum to any specific national total.

17

 Inter-ethnic mobility
Inter-ethnic mobility (IEM) assumptions are applied to each age-sex group to allow for the net
effect of people changing their ethnic identification over time. The IEM assumptions are the same
as used in the National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038. Under the national
median assumption, there is an average net change to the population in 2014–38 due to people
changing their ethnic identification for:





'European or Other' of 0.04 percent a year
Māori of 0.43 percent a year
Asian of -0.08 percent a year
Pacific of -0.11 percent a year.

Because age-specific rates are applied, the overall net IEM changes over time and will vary
between areas.
The low and high net IEM assumptions are chosen to represent plausible alternative IEM
scenarios for each area and each ethnic group.

Which projection should I use?
Three alternative projections (designated low, medium, and high growth) were produced for each
area and each ethnic group using different fertility (and paternity), mortality, migration, and interethnic mobility assumptions. Users can make their own judgment as to which projections are
most suitable for their purposes. At the time of release, the medium projection is considered
suitable for assessing future population change and is consistent with the median projection
(50th percentile) of the National Ethnic Population Projections: 2013(base)–2038 (released 21
May 2015) and the medium projection of the Subnational Population Projections:
2013(base)–2043 (released 19 February 2015). Other percentiles or projections cannot be
directly compared because the projection assumptions may be incompatible.
The low and high projections allow users to assess the impact on population size and structure
resulting from lower growth and higher growth scenarios, respectively. The low projection uses
low fertility, low paternity, high mortality, low net migration, and low net inter-ethnic mobility for
each area and each ethnic group. The high projection uses high fertility, high paternity, low
mortality, high net migration, and high net inter-ethnic mobility for each area and each ethnic
group. The low and high projections are independent of the national ethnic population projections
and subnational population projections as they represent plausible alternative scenarios for each
area.

General information
Ethnic concept
The ethnic concept used in these projections is the ethnic group or groups that people identify
with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is self-perceived and people can identify with more than one
ethnicity. Ethnicity is different from ancestry, birthplace, and nationality. For example, people can
identify with Māori ethnicity although they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor.
Conversely, people may choose to not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are
descended from a Māori ancestor.

18

 See Review of the Measurement of Ethnicity or the ethnicity classification for more information
about ethnicity, including information about the Statistical Standard for Ethnicity 2005.

'European or Other (including New Zealander)'
Projections have been derived for the combined 'European or Other (including New Zealander)'
ethnic group. Sufficient demographic data is available to enable projection assumptions to be
derived for the combined ethnic group, but not for the separate 'European' or 'Other (including
New Zealander)' ethnic groups defined in level one of the ethnicity classification. This approach
is consistent with Guidelines for Using Ethnicity Data: 2006 Census. If a person belongs to both
the 'European' and 'Other' ethnic groups, they are counted once. Almost all people in the 'Other'
ethnicity group belong to the 'New Zealander' sub-group.

Availability of other ethnic projections
Projections are not available for the 'Middle Eastern/Latin American/African' (MELAA) ethnic
group or for individual ethnicities (eg Chinese, Samoan). For smaller ethnic populations, it is
difficult to derive robust measures of the components of ethnic population change –
fertility, mortality, migration, inter-ethnic mobility – to enable projections to be readily produced.

Method
A special 'cohort component' method has been used to derive the population projections. Using
this method, the base population is projected forward by calculating the effect of deaths,
migration, and inter-ethnic mobility within each age-sex group (or cohort) according to the
specified mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions. New birth cohorts are added
to the population by applying the specified fertility assumptions to the female population of
childbearing age, and the specified paternity assumptions to the male population.
The method differs from the conventional cohort component method in two respects.
1. For each ethnic group, births are projected separately for women, and for men where the
mother is not of that ethnic group.
2. The projections allow for population change due to inter-ethnic mobility (ie people
changing their ethnic identification over time).

Nature of projections
These projections are not predictions. The projections should be used as an indication of the
overall trend, rather than as exact forecasts. The projections are updated every 2–3 years to
maintain their relevance and usefulness, by incorporating new information about demographic
trends and developments in methods.
The projections are designed to meet both short-term and long-term planning needs, but are not
designed to be exact forecasts or to project specific annual variation. These projections are
based on assumptions made about future fertility (and paternity), mortality, migration, and interethnic mobility patterns of the population. While the assumptions are formulated from an
assessment of short-term and long-term demographic trends, there is no certainty that any of the
assumptions will be realised.
The projections do not take into account non-demographic factors (eg war, catastrophes, major
government and business decisions) which may invalidate the projections.

19

 Population projections should not be confused with economic forecasts. Population change does
not necessarily relate to the social and economic well-being of an area. The population may
therefore change independent of local economic factors.
Projections of ethnic populations are more uncertain than projections of the total population for
several reasons.







Ethnic identification can change over time. See the inter-ethnic mobility section for further
explanation.
There are greater difficulties in establishing past trends in fertility, mortality, and
migration. People may report different ethnicities in different collections (eg birth
registration form, death registration form, census form), which makes deriving ethnicspecific fertility and mortality rates problematic. Also, the measurement of ethnicity has
changed over time in many collections, while it is not captured at all in some collections
(eg international travel and migration data).
Ethnic populations are not mutually exclusive because people can and do identify with
more than one ethnicity. People are not asked to prioritise their ethnic responses, so
Statistics NZ includes people in each of their reported ethnic groups.
Births to parents of different ethnicities add complexity. The parents may consider the
child to belong to one or more of their ethnicities, or indeed to another ethnicity.
There is greater future uncertainty about the components of population change. For
example, it is uncertain whether the fertility and mortality of different ethnicities will
converge, and if so, at what pace. Assumptions about future migration, notably for people
of Asian and Pacific ethnicities, are particularly susceptible to changes in migration
patterns.

Statistics NZ incorporates these factors into its methodology for ethnic population projections and
has developed stochastic population projections at the national level to illustrate uncertainty.
However, it is because of these factors that ethnic population projections are currently limited to
the four broad ethnic groups and the 25-year projection period.

Rounding
All figures in this release are rounded independently and all derived figures are calculated using
data of greater precision than published.
The rounding of figures of the total population is determined by the total population size of the
geographic area. Figures for areas with a population less than 10,000 are rounded to the nearest
10. For areas with a population between 10,000 and 20,000, figures are rounded to the nearest
50. Figures for areas with a population of 20,000 or more are rounded to the nearest 100.

Accuracy
The accuracy of these projections is unknown at the time of release. See How accurate are
population projections? An evaluation of Statistics New Zealand population projections,
1991–2006 for an evaluation of previous Statistics NZ national and subnational population
projections. Generally, projection uncertainty increases, and projection accuracy decreases, in
relative terms, the further out from the base (starting-point) and as the geographic area
(population size) decreases.

20

 Confidentiality
Data is combined from many sources to produce population projections. Therefore, it is not
possible to identify individuals in our published statistics. The published statistics are also
aggregated (eg to larger geographical areas), while data is also rounded to avoid conveying
spurious levels of precision.

More information
Population projections tables provides links to detailed projection results, including projections by
five-year age group and sex, on NZ.Stat. See demographic projections in DataInfo+, which also
include information about methods and assumptions.
Customised projections, such as projections using client-specified assumptions, are available on
request. Email: info@stats.govt.nz.
Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System
principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the
Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality.

Liability
While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and
information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable
for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this
publication.

Timing of published data
Our information releases are delivered electronically by third parties. Delivery may be delayed by
circumstances outside our control. Statistics NZ does not accept responsibility for any such
delay.

Crown copyright©

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 New Zealand licence. You are
free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and
abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or
governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags,
Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981. Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your
attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo.

21

 Correction
9 October 2015
We have corrected the Pacific population projections to improve the compatibility of the low,
medium, and high projections with each other. The largest revision is to the high projection, with
smaller changes to the low and medium projections.
These changes affect the Pacific population projections presented in Tables 1p, 2p, 3, and 4;
and the two Pacific graphs in the Commentary. Projections in NZ.Stat tables have also been
revised.
We apologise for any inconvenience caused by this correction.

22

 Contacts
For media enquiries contact:
Kim Dunstan
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
For technical information contact:
Helen He
Christchurch 03 964 8700
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
For general enquiries contact our Information Centre:
Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll-free in New Zealand)
+64 4 931 4600 (outside New Zealand)
Email: info@stats.govt.nz
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23

 Tables
See the following Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box on this page. If you have problems viewing
the files, see opening files and PDFs.
1e.
1m.
1a.
1p.
2e.
2m.
2a.
2p.
3.
4.

Projected 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnic population of regional
council areas, 1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Māori ethnic population of regional council areas, 1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Asian ethnic population of regional council areas, 1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Pacific ethnic population of regional council areas, 1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected 'European or Other (including New Zealander)' ethnic population of territorial
authority and Auckland local board areas, 1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Māori ethnic population of territorial authority and Auckland local board areas,
1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Asian ethnic population of territorial authority and Auckland local board areas,
1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected Pacific ethnic population of territorial authority and Auckland local board areas,
1996–2038 (2013-base)
Projected ethnic populations of regional council areas, medium projection, 1996–2038
(2013-base)
Projected ethnic populations of territorial authority and Auckland local board areas,
medium projection, 1996–2038 (2013-base)

Access more data in NZ.Stat
Use NZ.Stat, a free online database to access time-series data specific to your needs. To access
the projections in NZ.Stat, select Population projections (as the theme), then one of the
following tables:




Subnational ethnic population projections, by age and sex, 2013(base)–2038
Subnational ethnic population projections, characteristics, 2013(base)–2038
Subnational ethnic population projections, projection assumptions, 2013(base)–2038

You can download the projections in Excel or comma delimited format.

Next releases
National Ethnic Population Projections and Subnational Ethnic Population Projections will be
next released in 2017.

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