Retail Trade Survey: September 2015 quarter Embargoed until 10:45am – 16 November 2015 Key facts For the September 2015 quarter, compared with the June 2015 quarter (seasonally adjusted):     The total volume of retail sales rose 1.6 percent. Ten industries had higher sales volumes. Motor-vehicle and parts retailing recorded the largest volume increase, up 5.0 percent. The total value of retail sales rose 1.4 percent. Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician ISSN 1178-0355 16 November 2015 Commentary          Rise for total retail sales volume Total retail sales value up Sales volume and value trends continue to grow Motor-vehicle and parts industry makes large gains Electrical and electronic goods sales rise Recreational goods sales fall Mixed results in the regions Actual sales volume and value up on 2014 Actual stock values up on 2014 All values are seasonally adjusted, with comparisons against the previous quarter, unless otherwise stated. Rise for total retail sales volume The total volume of retail sales rose 1.6 percent for the September 2015 quarter. This follows a modest 0.1 percent rise in the June 2015 quarter, and a strong 2.0 percent rise in the March 2015 quarter. Ten of the 15 retail industries had higher sales volumes in the latest quarter, with the motorvehicle and parts industry having the largest rise (up 5.0 percent). 2 Other industries with large rises in the September 2015 quarter were:    electrical and electronic goods, up 6.6 percent food and beverage services, up 2.4 percent supermarket and grocery stores, up 0.7 percent. The largest falls in the latest quarter were:   recreational goods, down 5.8 percent accommodation, down 2.1 percent. In core retail (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries) the sales volume rose 1.0 percent in the September quarter, after an unchanged movement in the June 2015 quarter. Total retail sales value up The total value of retail sales rose 1.4 percent ($265 million) in the September 2015 quarter. This follows a 0.3 percent ($59 million) rise in the June 2015 quarter, and a 1.4 percent ($263 million) rise in the March 2015 quarter. Eleven of the 15 retail industries had higher sales values in the latest quarter. 3 Motor-vehicle and parts retailing drove this quarter's rise in the total sales value, with a 5.4 percent ($143 million) increase. Other industries with large rises in the September 2015 quarter were:    food and beverage services, up 2.9 percent ($63 million) electrical and electronic goods, up 5.4 percent ($39 million) non-store and commission-based retailing, up 7.4 percent ($22 million). The largest falls this quarter were:   recreational goods, down 6.1 percent ($34 million) fuel, down 0.5 percent ($10 million). In core retail (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries) the sales value rose 0.9 percent ($133 million) in the September 2015 quarter, following a fall of 0.2 percent ($34 million) in the June 2015 quarter. Sales volume and value trends continue to grow The trends for both the total sales volume, and core sales volume (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries) have generally been rising since late 2010. The total sales volume 4 trend has risen 23 percent since the last quarter of 2010, while the core sales volume trend has risen 21 percent since the September 2010 quarter. The trend for the total sales value has increased 30 percent since the March 2009 quarter. The core sales value trend (which excludes the two vehicle-related industries) has increased 28 percent since the December 2007 quarter. Motor-vehicle and parts industry makes large gains The volume of sales in motor-vehicle and parts retailing rose 5.0 percent in the September 2015 quarter, after a 1.0 percent rise in the June 2015 quarter. Several respondents told us they had a busy sales quarter, and were on target to achieve record sales for the 2015 year. Prices (which are not seasonally adjusted) rose 0.5 percent in the September 2015 quarter. This follows falls of 0.8 percent in both the June and March 2015 quarters. 5 The value of sales in this industry rose 5.4 percent ($143 million) in the September 2015 quarter, after a 0.4 percent ($10 million) rise in the June 2015 quarter. This quarter's rise in motor-vehicle and parts retailing is the largest dollar value increase since the series began in September 1995. The sales volume trend for the motor-vehicle and parts industry has risen steadily for five years, and is 45 percent higher than the most recent fall in the September 2010 quarter. Electrical and electronic goods sales rise The volume of sales in the electrical and electronic goods industry rose 6.6 percent in the September 2015 quarter, after a 0.2 percent fall in the June 2015 quarter. Prices (which are not seasonally adjusted) fell 0.8 percent in the September 2015 quarter. Quality adjusted prices in this industry have consistently fallen since the beginning of the series in September 2003. The value of sales in this industry rose 5.4 percent ($39 million) in the September 2015 quarter, after a 2.1 percent ($16 million) fall in the June 2015 quarter. 6 The sales volume trend in this industry has been consistently rising for almost eight years. Recreational goods sales fall The volume of sales in recreational goods retailing fell 5.8 percent in the September 2015 quarter, following a 1.3 percent fall in the June 2015 quarter. Prices (which are not seasonally adjusted) fell 0.1 percent in the September 2015 quarter. This follows a 1.2 percent rise in the June 2015 quarter. The value of sales in this industry fell 6.1 percent ($34 million) for the September 2015 quarter. The sales volume trend for the recreational goods industry has fallen in recent quarters, following a period of steady growth over the earlier two years. Mixed results in the regions Note: the Retail Trade Survey is designed at a national level. Use caution when interpreting regional-level figures. The value of sales in the North Island rose 1.9 percent ($284 million) in the September 2015 quarter. This follows an unchanged movement in the June 2015 quarter. The increase in the North Island sales value resulted from:     Auckland, up 2.8 percent ($201 million) Waikato, up 1.8 percent ($35 million) Wellington, down 0.5 percent ($9 million) remainder of the North Island, up 1.5 percent ($57 million). The value of sales in the South Island fell 0.2 percent ($11 million) in the September 2015 quarter. This follows a 0.5 percent ($26 million) rise in the June 2015 quarter. The decrease in the South Island sales value resulted from: 7   Canterbury, down 1.2 percent ($34 million) remainder of the South Island, up 1.1 percent ($23 million). Actual sales volume and value up on 2014 In the September 2015 quarter, compared with the September 2014 quarter:     the volume of total actual retail sales rose 5.7 percent the value of total actual retail sales rose 4.8 percent (to $19.2 billion) the volume of core actual retail sales rose 5.2 percent the value of core actual retail sales rose 5.4 percent (to $14.5 billion). Actual stock values up on 2014 Stock figures are recorded at 30 September 2015. All references to stocks are in actual dollars. The total value of stock held at 30 September 2015 ($7.2 billion) was 4.9 percent ($337 million) higher than at 30 September 2014. The value of stock for the core retail industries ($5.5 billion) was 5.2 percent ($270 million) higher than at 30 September 2014. Twelve of the 15 retail industries recorded stock increases in the September 2015 quarter compared with the September 2014 quarter. The largest were in:    motor-vehicle and parts retailing, up 5.1 percent ($81 million) department stores, up 7.9 percent ($64 million) hardware, building, and garden supplies, up 6.5 percent ($53 million). For more detailed data from the Retail Trade Survey, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. 8 Definitions About the Retail Trade Survey The Retail Trade Survey (RTS) provides short-term economic indicators of the retail trade sector. In addition, we use the data for compiling the retail trade sector component of quarterly national accounts (on the production side) and in compiling household consumption expenditure (on the expenditure side). The survey was last redesigned for the September 2003 quarter. For more details about the redesign see: Retail Trade Survey – Redesign: September 2003 Retail Trade Survey – Implementation of new survey design. More definitions ANZSIC06: Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification – New Zealand version 2006. ANZIND: an ANZSIC-based classification used to group industries for publication. Business Frame: a register of all economically significant businesses in New Zealand, which is maintained by Statistics NZ. We draw the population of the RTS from the Business Frame. Deflators: indexes that measure the rate of price change of goods and services sold by each RTS industry. We do not calculate deflators for the subtotal or all industries total. Enterprise: a business entity operating in New Zealand, either as a legally constituted body such as a company, partnership, trust, local or central government trading organisation, or a selfemployed individual. Geographic unit: a GEO is a subdivision of an enterprise. It is a separate operating unit engaged in New Zealand in one, or predominantly one, kind of economic activity from a single physical location or base. Per head of population: the population measure we use for the RTS is the estimated residential population. It excludes short-term visitors to New Zealand. Sales volumes expressed in September 2010 quarter prices: a constant price estimate, from which the portion of the current price sales' movement caused by price changes is removed. 9 Related links Next release Retail Trade Survey: December 2015 quarter will be released on 16 February 2016. Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release. Past releases Retail Trade Survey has links to past releases. Related links The latest movements in related series were as follows: The Consumers Price Index: September 2015 quarter rose 0.3 percent from the June 2015 quarter. On Infoshare, New Zealand Transport Agency figures show that new registrations of cars and station wagons (including cars previously registered overseas) were up 5.8 percent in the September 2015 quarter from the June 2015 quarter. The Retail Trade Survey includes sales for new and used passenger vehicles, motor cycles, trailers, tyres, and vehicle parts retailing only. Sales for commercial vehicles (eg business vehicles, trucks, and buses) are more likely to be included in the quarterly Wholesale Trade Survey. Credit card billings in New Zealand, including spending using New Zealand and overseas-issued cards, rose 8.5 percent in the September 2015 quarter from the same period in 2014. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate changed twice over the September quarterly period:   from 3.25 percent to 3.0 percent on 23 July 2015 from 3.00 percent to 2.75 percent on 10 September 2015 The International Travel and Migration: September 2015 information release showed that New Zealand had a record net gain (more arrivals than departures) of 61,200 migrants in the September 2015 year. The annual net gain has been setting records for the last 14 months. 10 Data quality Period-specific information This section contains information about data that has changed since the last release.    Measurement errors Imputation Postal response rate General information This section contains information about data that does not change between releases.            Population Industry descriptions Sample design Sample maintenance Sample reselection Measurement errors Use of retail trade data in quarterly national accounts Seasonally adjusted series Estimated trend Retail Trade Survey deflators Regional estimates Period-specific information Measurement errors All statistical estimates are subject to measurement errors. These include both sample errors and non-sample errors. In addition, we apply imputation methodologies to cope with small firms and non-response. These measurement errors should be considered when analysing the survey results. See measurement errors. Sample errors The postal survey is designed to give statistics at the following levels of accuracy (at the 95 percent confidence interval limit):   3 percent for sales at the total national retail trade level 10 percent for sales at the published national retail industry level. This means, for example, that there is a 95 percent chance that the true value of total retail trade sales lies within 3 percent of the published estimate. 11 Retail Trade Survey: September 2015 quarter sample errors, by industry At the 95 percent confidence interval limit Level (relative percent) Movement (absolute percent) Motor-vehicle and parts 4.8 1.8 Fuel 3.3 4.6 Supermarket and grocery stores 6.7 1.8 Specialised food 5.5 3.7 Liquor 6.5 3.2 Furniture, floor coverings, houseware, textiles 5.5 3.3 Electrical and electronic goods 1.9 1.3 Hardware, building, and garden supplies 4.4 2.4 Recreational goods 5.0 16.8 Clothing, footwear, and accessories 5.1 0.7 Department stores 0.0 0.0 Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing 10.3 1.5 Non-store and commission-based retailing 9.0 6.8 Accommodation 4.1 2.8 Food and beverage services 4.2 1.4 Retail industry Total retail trade 1.9 1.9 Industries with zero sample error are full-coverage industries. In these industries, we survey all large firms and model all small to medium-sized firms using administrative data sourced from Inland Revenue. Retail Trade Survey: September 2015 quarter sample errors, by region At the 95 percent confidence interval limit Level (relative percent) Movement (absolute percent) Auckland 4.5 1.0 Waikato 13.4 5.6 Wellington 12.1 6.6 Remainder of the North Island 5.5 1.7 Canterbury 10.8 4.8 Remainder of the South Island 6.9 1.6 Region 12 Imputation Small firms Small to medium-sized firms are generally not surveyed. Instead, we model their variables from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. Ratios we calculate from the postal sample units are applied to the administrative data to provide an estimate of the small firm variables. Non-response imputation Although we make every attempt to achieve a 100 percent response rate, in practice this does not occur. We estimate values for non-responding businesses by methods that include:    regression imputation historic imputation mean imputation. Regression imputation involves estimating sales from the unit's administrative data (GST sales) based on the relationship shown by similar businesses. Historic imputation involves multiplying the unit's response in the previous period by a non-response factor. The non-response factor is the average movement of similar businesses over the month. Mean imputation involves estimating a value for a unit by using the average value for a set of similar businesses. Sales imputed in the September 2015 quarter Tax modelled Retail industry Non-response Percentage of sales Motor-vehicle and parts 6.6 10.2 Fuel 2.0 11.6 Supermarket and grocery stores 3.6 9.9 Specialised food 7.3 18.2 Liquor 12.0 14.7 Furniture, floor coverings, houseware, textiles 10.3 14.2 Electrical and electronic goods 9.2 8.2 Hardware, building, and garden supplies 8.3 12.8 Recreational goods 7.5 15.4 Clothing, footwear, and accessories 8.2 15.8 Department stores 0.0 1.1 Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing 9.4 16.6 Non-store and commission-based retailing 10.4 14.9 Accommodation 9.0 18.4 Food and beverage services 7.9 23.5 Total retail trade 6.2 13.0 13 Postal response rate The RTS has a target response rate of 85 percent. We achieved an 86.2 percent response rate for the September 2015 quarter. The response rate describes the proportion of geographic units (GEOs) that provided survey responses. Note that the calculation of this response rate relates only to data for the postal sample. General information Population Our target population for this survey is all GEOs operating in New Zealand that are classified on Statistics NZ's Business Frame to the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2006 (ANZSIC06) below:   retail trade (ANZSIC division G) accommodation and food services (ANZSIC division H). Industry descriptions A GEO is included in an industry based on its predominant activity in terms of sales. For example, a petrol station will sell petrol and diesel, but it may also sell car parts and grocery items. We classify the store to the fuel retailing industry if most of its sales income comes from the sale of fuel. We publish data for 15 industries, which are defined as follows: ANZSIC06 industries, class codes, and descriptions for RTS RTS industry and description used in published tables ANZSIC06 class and description G1110 Motor vehicle and parts G391100 Car retailing G391200 Motor cycle retailing G391300 Trailer and other motor vehicle retailing G392100 Motor vehicle parts retailing G392200 Tyre retailing G1120 Fuel G400000 Fuel retailing G1210 Supermarket and grocery stores G411000 Supermarkets and grocery stores G1221 Specialised food G412100 Fresh meat, fish, and poultry retailing G412200 Fruit and vegetable retailing G412900 Other specialised food retailing G1222 Liquor G412300 Liquor retailing G1311 Furniture, floor coverings, houseware, textiles G421100 Furniture retailing G421200 Floor coverings retailing G421300 Houseware retailing 14 G421400 Manchester and other textile goods retailing G1312 Electrical and electronic goods G422100 Electrical, electronic, and gas appliance retailing G422200 Computer and computer peripheral retailing G422900 Other electrical and electronic goods retailing G1313 Hardware, building, and garden supplies G423100 Hardware and building supplies retailing G423200 Garden supplies retailing G1321 Recreational goods G424100 Sport and camping equipment retailing G424200 Entertainment media retailing G424300 Toy and game retailing G424400 Newspaper and book retailing G424500 Marine equipment retailing G1322 Clothing, footwear, and accessories G425100 Clothing retailing G425200 Footwear retailing G425300 Watch and jewellery retailing G425900 Other personal accessory retailing G1330 Department stores G426000 Department stores G1340 Pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing G427100 Pharmaceutical, cosmetic, and toiletry retailing G427200 Stationery goods retailing G427300 Antique and used goods retailing G427400 Flower retailing G427900 Other store-based retailing nec G1350 Non-store and commission-based retailing G431000 Non-store retailing H2110 Accommodation H440000 Accommodation H2120 Food and beverage services H451100 Cafes and restaurants G432000 Retail commission-based buying/selling H451200 Takeaway food services H451300 Catering services H452000 Pubs, taverns, and bars H453000 Clubs (hospitality) Note: nec = not elsewhere classified 15 Sample design We stratify the survey population according to:    industries defined by the ANZSIC-based ANZIND classification at the inter-industry level size (in terms of rolling-mean employment) turnover (annualised GST sales). Each ANZIND inter-industry contains between two and four substrata. Because of the contribution that large units make to the economic activity within each industry, they are all included in the sample. We also include a portion of the remaining medium to large units in the sample. In addition, small to medium-sized businesses have their data modelled from administrative data (GST) sourced from Inland Revenue. The Inland Revenue data are forecast two months ahead. We include all retailing GEOs belonging to a selected 'enterprise'. The sample is based on approximately 52,000 retail outlets in New Zealand. We select around 2,500 enterprises (between 8,000 and 8,500 GEOs) in the RTS postal sample. The postal sample is supplemented by GST data representing smaller retailers, approximately 26,400 enterprises (26,500 GEOs). Sample maintenance Sample maintenance is the process that maintains the sample over time, to reflect 'births', 'deaths' and other structural changes identified on the Business Frame. The information for Business Frame changes can be from a variety of sources, including GST registrations and respondent contact. We identify new enterprises when they register for GST. Once a quarter, the new enterprises are selected into the sample using the same criteria as for the original sample. These are referred to as births. When an enterprise ceases trading, we remove its retailing GEOs from the survey. These are referred to as deaths. Enterprises can also enter or leave the survey sample if they are reclassified to a different industry. Reclassifications occur when an enterprise changes its main form of activity (eg from wholesale trade to retailing). We usually identify these in the Annual Frame Update Survey conducted in February of each year. Sample reselection We select the sample for the RTS each quarter to ensure the sample reflects changes occurring in the retailing population. Measurement errors Errors in the survey are divided into two classes: Non-sampling error Non-sampling error includes errors arising from biases in the patterns of response and nonresponse, inaccuracies in reporting by respondents, and errors in recording and coding data. The size of these errors is difficult to quantify. We may revise if significant errors are detected in subsequent quarters. 16 Sampling error Sampling error is a measure of the variability that occurs by chance because a sample, rather than an entire population, is surveyed. Use of retail trade data in quarterly national accounts A key use of the RTS is in calculating retail trade value added for compiling quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). The quarterly GDP retail trade indicator uses the 'retail sales volumes expressed in September 1995 quarter prices, by industry' series from the RTS. These series are chain-linked to give constant-price sales at the ANZSIC06 working-industry level. We calculate the chain-linking weights using annualised quarterly current-price sales, by RTS industry. Seasonally adjusted series We produce the seasonally adjusted and trend series using the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS package developed by the U.S. Census Bureau, to comply with international best practice. Seasonal adjustment aims to eliminate the impact of regular seasonal events (such as annual cycles in agricultural production, winter, or annual holidays) on time series. This makes the data for adjacent quarters more comparable. We revise all seasonally adjusted figures each quarter. This enables the seasonal component to be better estimated and removed from the series. The X-13-ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment package is very robust. However, problems occur when there is an abrupt change in the seasonal variation, as with other seasonal adjustment packages. Estimated trend For any series, we break the survey estimates down into three components: trend, seasonal, and irregular. While seasonally adjusted series have the seasonal component removed, trend series have both the seasonal and the irregular components removed. Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series, and are likely to indicate turning points more accurately than are seasonally adjusted estimates. We calculate the trend series using the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment package. They are based on a five-term or seven-term moving average of the quarterly seasonally adjusted series, with an adjustment for outlying values. Trend estimates towards the end of the series incorporate new data as they become available and can therefore change as more observations are added to the series. Revisions can be particularly large if we treat an observation as an outlier in one quarter, but find it to be part of the underlying trend as further observations are added to the series. Typically, only the estimates for the most-recent quarter will be subject to substantial revisions. 17 Retail Trade Survey deflators The RTS deflators that appear in table 13 measure change in the prices of goods and services sold by businesses in the 15 retail industries. We can explain movements in actual retail sales values by changes in price, and by changes in volume. The deflators are used to remove the effect of price change, which allows change in the volume of retail sales to be estimated. The deflator for each industry consists of a 'basket' of indexes, drawn mainly from the consumers price index (CPI). The CPI indexes and other indicators in each deflator's basket represent the goods and services sold by the industry. Each good or service is weighted to reflect the relative importance of the mix of goods and services sold by the industry. See Retail Trade Survey deflator weights for more information about the RTS deflators. Regional estimates In the October 2003 month, we changed the RTS sample of GEOs. ANZSIC06-based regional data is not available before the December 2003 quarter. More information Statistics in the release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting for Data Quality. See Retail Trade Survey for information about the survey. 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Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 18 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Neil Kelly Christchurch 03 964 8700 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For technical information contact: Kathy Hicks or Tehseen Islam Christchurch 03 964 8700 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll free in New Zealand) +64 4 931 4600 (outside New Zealand) Email: info@stats.govt.nz Subscription service: Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. Correction notifications: Subscribe to receive an email if a correction notice is published for Retail Trade Survey. Unsubscribe to correction notifications for Retail Trade Survey. Subscribe to all to receive an email if a correction notice is published for any of our information releases. Unsubscribe to all if you change your mind. 19 Tables See the following Excel and CSV tables in the ‘Downloads’ box on this page. If you have problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs. 1. Actual retail sales values, by quarter by industry 2. Actual retail sales volumes expressed in September 2010 quarter prices, by quarter by industry 3. Seasonally adjusted retail sales values, by quarter by industry 4. Seasonally adjusted sales volumes expressed in September 2010 quarter prices, by quarter by industry 5. Retail sales value trends, by quarter by industry 6. Retail sales volume trends expressed in September 2010 quarter prices, by quarter by industry 7. Actual retail sales values, by geographical region 8. Actual core retail sales values, by geographical region 9. Seasonally adjusted retail sales values, by geographical region 10. Retail sales value trends, by geographical region 11. Actual retail stock values at end of quarter, by industry 12. Retail summary, by quarter 13. Retail trade sales deflators by industry, percentage change from previous quarter and from same quarter previous year We have added machine-readable, zipped CSV files of the tables to the downloadable files, as a trial. Use the form below to send us feedback about them. Access more data on Infoshare Use Infoshare to access time-series data specific to your needs. For this release, select the following category from the homepage: Subject category: Industry sectors Group: Retail Trade (ANZSIC06) - RTT Next release Retail Trade Survey: December 2015 quarter will be released on 16 February 2016. 20