11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe FINAL November 2015 NH GOP Study Geo Code: (N=500) n West/North ------------------------------------------------------- 102 Central ------------------------------------------------------------- 122 Hillsborough ------------------------------------------------------ 151 Rockingham ------------------------------------------------------ 125 % 20.40 24.40 30.20 25.00 ************************************************************************************************************************************* Hello, my name is __________ and I am conducting a survey for Suffolk University and I would like to get your opinions on some political questions. Would you be willing to spend five minutes answering some questions? S.1 Gender (N=500) n Male ---------------------------------------------------------------- 245 Female ------------------------------------------------------------ 255 S.2. % 49.00 51.00 How likely are you to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary in ten weeks? (N=500) n % Very Likely -------------------------------------------------------- 433 86.60 Somewhat Likely -------------------------------------------------- 48 9.60 50/50 ----------------------------------------------------------------- 19 3.80 S.3 Are you currently registered as a Democrat, Republican, Undeclared/Independent, something else or are you not registered to vote? (N=500) n % Democrat ----------------------------------------------------------- 17 3.40 Republican ------------------------------------------------------- 314 62.80 Undeclared/Independent -------------------------------------- 162 32.40 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 4 0.80 Not registered ------------------------------------------------------- 0 0.00 Refused -------------------------------------------------------------- 3 0.60 {S3.1, 3.3, 3.4 only} S.4 Just to be clear, although you are a registered you intend to vote in the Republican Presidential Primary in ten weeks? (N=183) n % YES ---------------------------------------------------------------- 183 100.00 QUOTA 5. What is your age category? (N=500) n 18-24 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 25 25-34 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 91 35-44 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 93 45-54 Years ------------------------------------------------------ 102 55-64 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 81 65-74 Years -------------------------------------------------------- 51 75 + Years ---------------------------------------------------------- 41 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 16 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 1 of 6 % 5.00 18.20 18.60 20.40 16.20 10.20 8.20 3.20 Boston Sunday Globe 11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe QUOTA 6. For statistical purposes only, can you please tell me what your ethnic background / ancestry is? (N=500) n % White/Caucasian ------------------------------------------------ 443 88.60 Black/African-American ------------------------------------------ 9 1.80 American Indian/Alaska Native --------------------------------- 7 1.40 Asian ------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.20 Native Hawaiian/Other Pacific Islander ----------------------- 0 0.00 Hispanic/Latino ----------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.00 Refused ------------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.00 7. If the Republican Primary for President of the United States were held today, who would be your first choice to win the Republican nomination? {RANDOMIZE LIST} (N=500) n % Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 38 7.60 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 51 10.20 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 21 4.20 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 46 9.20 Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 22 4.40 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 2 0.40 Mike Huckabee ----------------------------------------------------- 5 1.00 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 46 9.20 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.40 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 13 2.60 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 55 11.00 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 0 0.00 Donald Trump---------------------------------------------------- 108 21.60 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 2 0.40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 89 17.80 {FOR 7.1 - 7.15, First Choice} 8. If I added Mitt Romney to this list, would you switch your support to him? (N=411) n Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 123 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 260 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 28 % 29.93 63.26 6.81 {FOR 7.16, Undecideds} 8A. If I added Mitt Romney to this list, would you vote for him? (N=89) n Yes ------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 No--------------------------------------------------------------------- 40 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 17 % 35.96 44.94 19.10 Q7 & Q8/Q8A With Romney added to list (N=500) n Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 14 % 2.80 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 2 of 6 Boston Sunday Globe 11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 34 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 12 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 34 Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 13 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 1 Mike Huckabee ----------------------------------------------------- 2 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 32 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 2 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 11 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 31 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 0 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 73 Mitt Romney ------------------------------------------------------ 155 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 1 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 85 6.80 2.40 6.80 2.60 0.20 0.40 6.40 0.40 2.20 6.20 0.00 14.60 31.00 0.20 17.00 9. Now earlier you said your first choice was ________. Of the existing candidates, who would be your second choice? (RANDOMIZE LIST) (If they say Romney, direct them to the existing list). (N=411) n % Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 47 11.44 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 39 9.49 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 28 6.81 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 48 11.68 Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 31 7.54 Lindsey Graham ---------------------------------------------------- 3 0.73 Mike Huckabee ----------------------------------------------------- 2 0.49 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 31 7.54 George Pataki ------------------------------------------------------ 3 0.73 Rand Paul ---------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.43 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 71 17.27 Rick Santorum ------------------------------------------------------ 3 0.73 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 40 9.73 Other ------------------------------------------------------------------ 6 1.46 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 49 11.92 I am going to read you a shorter list of individuals and for each, please tell me if your opinion of them is generally favorable or generally unfavorable. If you are undecided or if you have never heard of someone, just tell me that. First take Barack Obama. Is your opinion of Barack Obama generally favorable or generally unfavorable? (RANDOMIZE 11-19) (N=500) 10. Barack Obama New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters NEVER HEARD 1 0.20 FAVORABLE 85 17.00 3 of 6 UNFAVORABLE HOF/UNDECIDED 389 77.80 Boston Sunday Globe 25 5.00 11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe 11. Hillary Clinton 0 0.00 80 16.00 394 78.80 26 5.20 12. Chris Christie 7 1.40 256 51.20 168 33.60 69 13.80 13. Jeb Bush 1 0.20 255 51.00 198 39.60 46 9.20 14. John Kasich 21 4.20 216 43.20 166 33.20 97 19.40 15. Ben Carson 5 1.00 292 58.40 148 29.60 55 11.00 16. Carly Fiorina 12 2.40 276 55.20 145 29.00 67 13.40 17. Marco Rubio 12 2.40 318 63.60 108 21.60 62 12.40 18. Ted Cruz 6 1.20 278 55.60 143 28.60 73 14.60 19. Donald Trump 0 0.00 243 48.60 209 41.80 48 9.60 20. What do you think is the most important issue facing the country right now? (RANDOMIZE) (N=500) n Reducing the national debt ------------------------------------- 32 Taxes ---------------------------------------------------------------- 12 Jobs/Economy ----------------------------------------------------- 90 Schools/Education ------------------------------------------------ 10 Healthcare ---------------------------------------------------------- 31 Energy independence -------------------------------------------- 8 Illegal immigration ------------------------------------------------ 60 Abortion policy ------------------------------------------------------ 1 Same-sex marriage ----------------------------------------------- 1 Civil liberties --------------------------------------------------------- 7 Terrorism/National security ----------------------------------- 209 Drugs/Opioids------------------------------------------------------- 9 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 30 % 6.40 2.40 18.00 2.00 6.20 1.60 12.00 0.20 0.20 1.40 41.80 1.80 6.00 21. There was just a major terrorist attack in Paris. Which of the following 8 candidates is best equipped to handle the American response to the Islamic State? (N=500) n % Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 52 10.40 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 23 4.60 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 36 7.20 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 54 10.80 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 4 of 6 Boston Sunday Globe 11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe 22. Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 20 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 28 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 65 Donald Trump---------------------------------------------------- 123 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 15 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 84 4.00 5.60 13.00 24.60 3.00 16.80 Which candidate do you trust the most? {One answer – read randomized list} (N=500) n Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 50 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 79 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------ 21 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 47 Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 28 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 49 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 71 Donald Trump------------------------------------------------------ 92 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 15 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 48 % 10.00 15.80 4.20 9.40 5.60 9.80 14.20 18.40 3.00 9.60 23. Which candidate has the best chance of winning the general election against the Democratic nominee? {One answer – read randomized list} (N=500) n % Jeb Bush ------------------------------------------------------------ 31 6.20 Ben Carson --------------------------------------------------------- 47 9.40 Chris Christie------------------------------------------------------- 10 2.00 Ted Cruz ------------------------------------------------------------ 34 6.80 Carly Fiorina-------------------------------------------------------- 15 3.00 John Kasich -------------------------------------------------------- 24 4.80 Marco Rubio-------------------------------------------------------- 80 16.00 Donald Trump---------------------------------------------------- 156 31.20 Other ----------------------------------------------------------------- 16 3.20 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 87 17.40 24. Would you describe yourself as conservative, moderate or liberal? (N=500) n Conservative ----------------------------------------------------- 277 Moderate ---------------------------------------------------------- 190 Liberal --------------------------------------------------------------- 27 Undecided ---------------------------------------------------------- 6 % 55.40 38.00 5.40 1.20 25. Are you willing to be interviewed by a Boston Globe reporter for an upcoming article, please give me your name and verify best phone number? (N=500) n % Yes ----------------------------------------------------------------- 142 28.40 No------------------------------------------------------------------- 351 70.20 Undecided ----------------------------------------------------------- 7 1.40 New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 5 of 6 Boston Sunday Globe 11/17 – 11/19 SUPRC/Boston Globe [THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME. HAVE A NICE DAY/EVENING.] New Hampshire GOP Primary Voters 6 of 6 Boston Sunday Globe