This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone November 16-19, 2015, among a random national sample of 1,004 adults, including landline and cell phone respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 10/18/15 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 12/14/14 10/26/14 10/12/14 9/7/14 6/1/14 4/27/14 3/2/14 1/23/14 12/15/13 11/17/13 10/20/13 9/15/13 7/21/13 5/19/13 4/14/13 3/10/13 1/13/13 12/16/12 11/4/12 11/3/12 11/2/12 11/1/12 10/31/12 10/30/12 10/29/12 10/28/12 10/27/12 10/26/12 10/25/12 10/24/12 10/23/12 10/22/12 10/21/12 10/13/12 9/29/12 9/9/12 8/25/12 7/8/12 5/20/12 4/8/12 3/10/12 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 46 24 22 51 28 23 49 27 22 45 26 20 45 22 23 47 26 21 50 24 26 41 21 20 43 21 22 40 20 20 42 24 18 46 23 23 41 23 19 46 25 22 46 23 23 43 23 20 42 22 21 48 28 20 47 25 22 49 25 24 51 32 20 50 27 23 50 29 21 55 32 23 54 33 21 52 33 10 51 33 10 51 32 11 50 31 11 50 30 11 50 28 12 50 28 11 51 28 11 50 28 11 51 29 10 50 29 9 50 29 10 50 29 21 50 30 20 51 31 20 50 30 21 50 26 24 49 29 20 50 27 23 47 24 24 47 26 21 50 30 20 46 28 18 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 50 10 40 45 10 35 46 9 37 50 13 37 49 11 38 47 11 36 44 9 35 54 13 41 51 12 39 51 12 39 51 12 39 51 14 37 52 12 40 50 12 38 50 9 41 55 14 41 55 11 44 49 10 39 47 11 37 44 12 32 44 10 33 45 10 35 46 11 36 41 8 33 42 9 32 46 10 36 47 10 37 47 11 36 48 11 37 48 11 37 48 12 37 48 11 36 46 11 36 46 11 36 46 10 36 47 9 37 48 10 38 47 9 37 47 10 38 47 10 37 44 10 34 46 12 34 45 11 35 46 13 33 49 15 34 49 13 36 45 10 35 50 11 39 No opinion 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 8 6 3 6 3 4 3 3 3 6 7 5 5 4 4 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 6 4 6 4 4 3 6 4 2/4/12 50 29 22 1/15/12 48 25 23 12/18/11 49 25 24 11/3/11 44 22 22 10/2/11 42 21 21 9/1/11 43 21 22 8/9/11* 44 18 26 7/17/11 47 25 22 6/5/11 47 27 20 5/2/11** 56 29 27 4/17/11 47 27 21 3/13/11 51 27 24 1/16/11 54 30 23 12/12/10 49 24 25 10/28/10 50 27 23 10/3/10 50 26 24 9/2/10 46 24 22 7/11/10 50 28 22 6/6/10 52 30 22 4/25/10 54 31 23 3/26/10 53 34 20 2/8/10 51 29 22 1/15/10 53 30 24 12/13/09 50 31 18 11/15/09 56 32 23 10/18/09 57 33 23 9/12/09 54 35 19 8/17/09 57 35 21 7/18/09 59 38 22 6/21/09 65 36 29 4/24/09 69 42 27 3/29/09 66 40 26 2/22/09 68 43 25 *Washington Post **Washington Post/Pew Research Center 46 48 47 53 54 53 46 48 49 38 50 45 43 47 45 47 52 47 45 44 43 46 44 46 42 40 43 40 37 31 26 29 25 11 11 13 15 14 16 9 14 13 14 12 12 15 15 11 13 14 12 12 11 8 12 13 13 13 11 12 11 9 10 8 9 8 36 37 34 37 40 38 37 35 37 24 37 33 28 32 34 34 38 35 33 33 35 33 32 33 29 29 31 29 28 22 18 20 17 3 4 4 3 4 3 10 5 4 6 3 4 3 4 5 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 4 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling [ITEM]? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 – Summary Table ------- Approve -----NET Strongly Smwht 48 24 24 40 21 19 a. The economy b. The threat of terrorism c. The extremist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS 35 17 18 *Half sample asked item b; other half asked item c. ----- Disapprove ----NET Smwht Strongly 48 14 34 54 11 43 57 11 46 Trend: a. The economy 11/19/15 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 48 24 24 49 26 22 47 25 22 47 25 23 49 29 20 48 26 21 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 48 14 34 47 11 36 48 13 35 48 14 34 46 12 34 48 10 38 No opinion 4 5 5 4 5 5 No op. 4 6 8 12/14/14 44 24 20 10/26/14 42 21 20 10/12/14 44 25 19 9/7/14 42 22 19 6/1/14 43 21 21 4/27/14 42 20 21 3/2/14 43 23 20 1/23/14 43 22 21 12/15/13 42 24 18 11/17/13 41 22 20 10/20/13 44 23 20 9/15/13 45 25 20 7/21/13 45 22 22 5/19/13 48 26 22 4/14/13 44 22 22 3/10/13 44 24 20 1/13/13 50 24 25 12/16/12 50 27 23 10/13/12 RV 47 26 21 9/29/12 RV 47 23 25 9/9/12 RV 45 24 21 8/25/12 44 20 23 7/8/12 44 21 23 5/20/12 42 20 22 4/8/12 44 23 21 3/10/12 38 20 18 2/4/12 44 23 22 1/15/12 41 19 22 12/18/11 41 17 24 11/3/11 38 18 20 10/2/11 35 17 19 9/1/11 36 15 21 7/17/11 39 18 22 6/5/11 40 20 20 5/2/11* 40 18 22 4/17/11 42 23 19 3/13/11 43 22 21 1/16/11 46 22 24 12/12/10 43 21 22 10/28/10 RV 44 21 23 10/3/10 45 22 23 9/2/10 41 20 21 7/11/10 43 20 23 6/6/10 50 26 24 4/25/10 49 24 25 3/26/10 45 23 22 2/8/10 45 22 23 1/15/10 47 22 24 12/13/09 46 23 24 11/15/09 51 26 25 10/18/09 50 29 22 9/12/09 51 28 24 8/17/09 52 27 25 7/18/09 52 29 23 6/21/09 56 28 28 4/24/09 58 31 28 3/29/09 60 34 25 2/22/09 60 NA NA *Washington Post/Pew Research Center 52 52 51 54 53 54 54 55 55 57 54 51 49 48 53 52 47 48 51 52 53 54 54 55 54 59 53 57 56 61 61 62 57 59 55 57 55 51 54 54 53 57 54 49 49 52 53 52 52 47 48 46 46 46 41 38 38 34 14 14 12 15 15 13 14 13 14 14 12 14 14 10 12 10 10 10 10 10 8 12 13 11 12 9 11 11 13 13 13 15 15 10 16 11 13 13 15 15 13 13 13 12 10 12 15 13 12 12 13 13 13 10 13 13 12 NA 38 38 39 39 38 41 41 42 40 42 42 37 35 37 41 42 37 38 41 41 45 42 41 44 42 50 41 46 43 48 48 47 43 49 39 46 41 38 39 39 41 44 41 37 39 40 38 39 40 36 35 33 33 35 27 25 26 NA 4 7 4 5 4 4 2 3 4 2 2 4 6 4 3 4 3 3 2 1 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 4 2 3 2 4 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 4 2 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 3 6 b. The threat of terrorism -------- Approve -------- ------- Disapprove ------ No NET Strongly Somewhat 11/19/15 40 21 19 1/15/15 47 22 25 12/14/14 43 21 22 10/12/14 42 21 21 1/23/14 50 29 21 1/15/12 56 36 20 11/3/11 60 37 23 9/1/11 62 33 29 6/5/11 60 35 25 5/2/11* 69 42 27 2/8/10 56 28 28 1/15/10 55 31 23 11/15/09 53 31 22 9/12/09 55 31 24 6/21/09 57 NA NA 4/21/09** 57 " " *Washington Post-Pew Research Center **Pew Research Center NET 54 45 48 50 42 38 34 32 34 21 39 42 41 34 36 26 Somewhat 11 14 14 15 14 10 12 12 13 9 14 14 14 12 NA " Strongly 43 31 34 35 28 28 22 21 21 12 25 28 27 23 NA " opinion 6 8 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 10 5 4 6 11 7 17 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 57 11 46 No opinion 8 c. The extremist group known as the Islamic State, or ISIS -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 35 17 18 11/19/15 Compare to: The situation involving the insurgents known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria -------- Approve -------NET Strongly Somewhat 31 13 18 35 16 19 50 22 28 5/31/15 10/12/14 9/28/14 ------- Disapprove -----NET Somewhat Strongly 55 15 41 51 13 37 44 15 29 No opinion 14 14 6 3. How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not closely at all? 11/19/15 11/4/12 11/3/12 11/2/12 11/1/12 10/31/12 10/30/12 10/29/12 10/28/12 10/27/12 10/26/12 10/25/12 10/24/12 10/23/12 10/22/12 10/21/12 10/13/12 9/29/12 9/9/12 5/20/12 2/4/12* LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV RV RV ---- Closely ---NET Very Smwt 75 30 45 ---- Not closely ---NET Not so At all 25 13 12 99 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 95 94 93 92 92 93 92 87 82 79 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 5 5 6 8 8 6 8 13 18 20 66 67 67 68 67 66 69 69 68 66 62 63 63 64 64 60 54 51 38 37 33 31 31 31 32 33 30 30 31 33 33 32 31 28 28 33 38 36 44 43 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 4 5 5 4 6 8 9 12 * * * * * * * * * * 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 5 8 8 No opinion * * * * 0 0 0 0 * * 0 * * * * * * 0 1 * * 1/15/12 RV 12/18/11 11/3/11 10/2/11 9/1/11 7/17/11 6/5/11 76 69 65 64 66 61 61 33 26 24 24 25 18 22 43 43 41 40 40 43 39 24 31 34 36 34 39 38 14 18 17 23 20 23 23 10 13 17 13 14 15 15 * * * 0 * * * 11/3/08 11/2/08 11/1/08 10/31/08 10/30/08 10/29/08 10/28/08 10/27/08 10/26/08 10/25/08 10/24/08 10/23/08 10/22/08 10/21/08 10/20/08 10/19/08 10/11/08 9/29/08 9/22/08 9/7/08 8/22/08 7/13/08 6/15/08 5/11/08 4/13/08 3/2/08 2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 9/30/07 7/21/07 6/1/07 4/15/07 2/25/07 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV 91 90 90 89 89 89 90 91 90 89 89 88 89 90 90 90 92 89 91 89 84 79 75 83 84 84 81 79 72 67 69 70 66 66 65 64 63 61 60 59 60 59 60 60 59 60 58 57 58 57 57 59 58 55 51 42 36 34 39 37 42 35 32 21 21 21 22 18 20 20 28 28 29 29 29 30 31 31 30 30 28 30 32 32 34 33 33 31 36 38 42 42 41 44 47 42 46 47 51 46 48 48 48 45 44 8 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 11 11 12 11 10 10 10 8 11 9 10 16 21 25 17 16 15 19 21 28 33 30 30 34 34 35 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 7 5 6 11 12 12 13 11 11 12 15 19 22 21 20 22 20 25 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 9 13 5 5 4 7 6 8 12 10 10 13 14 10 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 0 * * 1 * 0 * * * * * 0 * * * * * 10/31/04 10/30/04 10/29/04 10/28/04 10/27/04 10/26/04 10/25/04 10/24/04 10/23/04 10/22/04 10/21/04 10/20/04 10/19/04 10/18/04 10/17/04 10/16/04 10/15/04 10/14/04 10/13/04 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV 90 90 90 90 90 89 89 90 90 90 90 89 87 88 89 88 87 87 88 58 59 58 58 57 55 55 54 54 54 55 55 54 52 52 53 53 52 52 32 31 32 32 33 34 34 36 36 36 35 34 33 36 37 35 34 35 36 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 * 1 * * * * * * * * * * 1 * * * * * * 10/12/04 10/11/04 10/10/04 10/9/04 10/8/04 10/7/04 10/6/04 10/5/04 10/4/04 10/3/04 9/26/04 9/8/04 8/29/04 8/1/04 7/25/04 6/20/04 5/23/04 4/18/04 3/7/04 2/11/04 1/18/04 10/29/03 9/13/03 RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV RV 88 88 87 88 88 88 88 88 88 87 87 85 81 80 73 78 74 75 75 75 66 54 56 52 53 52 52 53 53 51 50 49 48 48 45 43 41 34 33 33 30 33 30 22 15 16 36 35 35 36 35 35 37 38 39 39 39 40 38 39 39 45 41 45 42 45 44 39 40 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 20 20 27 22 26 25 25 25 35 45 44 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 10 13 13 15 15 17 16 18 15 22 30 27 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 7 7 12 7 9 9 7 10 13 15 17 * * * * * 1 * * * * 1 1 * * * * * 0 * * * 0 * 11/6/00 11/5/00 11/4/00 11/3/00 11/2/00 11/1/00 10/31/00 10/30/00 10/29/00 10/28/00 10/27/00 10/26/00 10/25/00 10/24/00 10/23/00 10/22/00 10/21/00 10/20/00 10/19/00 10/18/00 10/17/00 10/15/00 10/9/00 10/1/00 9/6/00 8/20/00 8/10/00 8/6/00 7/29/00 7/23/00 6/11/00 4/2/00 3/11/00 2/27/00 2/6/00 1/16/00 12/15/99 10/31/99 7/17/95 LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV LV RV RV RV RV RV RV 92 91 91 91 90 91 90 91 90 89 89 89 89 87 89 88 87 86 85 87 86 77 75 75 74 74 72 53 51 50 49 53 61 70 65 50 45 61 36 54 53 52 51 48 48 46 47 47 47 48 47 47 44 44 44 46 46 44 42 40 33 30 27 26 28 29 17 16 14 13 17 21 24 19 11 12 16 7 38 38 39 40 42 43 44 44 43 42 41 42 42 43 45 44 41 40 41 45 46 44 45 48 48 46 43 36 35 36 36 36 40 46 48 39 33 45 29 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 13 11 12 13 15 14 13 13 23 25 25 26 26 29 47 49 50 51 47 38 30 34 50 55 38 63 6 6 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 8 9 9 11 10 10 10 15 16 17 17 16 18 22 25 25 26 24 21 20 21 26 31 25 33 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 8 9 8 9 10 11 25 24 25 25 23 17 10 13 24 24 13 31 * * * * * * * * * * * * 0 0 0 0 * * * * * * * * * 1 * * * * 0 0 0 * 0 * * * * 7/8/92 76 1/27/92 51 10/10/88 RV 77 8/18/88 RV 68 8/15/88 RV 70 5/25/88 76 9/23/87 50 6/1/87 50 *2/4/12 and previous 28 48 24 16 8 * 14 37 48 25 23 1 31 46 23 17 6 26 42 31 20 11 0 27 43 31 19 12 0 25 51 25 19 6 * 9 41 49 31 18 * 11 39 49 32 17 * "not too closely" instead of "not so closely" 4. I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the presidential primary or caucus in your state. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?* Less than 50-50 Will not vote (vol.) No primary/ caucus (vol.) Already voted (vol.) No op. Cert. Prob. 50-50 All: 11/19/15 63 14 9 10 4 NA NA 1 2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 64 65 70 69 13 12 11 12 9 13 10 10 10 6 6 6 3 4 3 3 * * * * 1 * NA " * * * 1 Leaned Republicans: 11/19/15 74 12 5 5 2 NA NA 1 2/4/12 1/15/12 12/18/11 55 65 71 17 15 14 10 11 8 5 4 6 8 4 1 0 * * 6 1 NA * 1 * 2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 68 69 74 68 10 12 11 12 9 12 9 11 8 4 3 6 4 3 2 3 * * * 0 1 * NA " 0 0 * 0 Leaned Democrats: 11/19/15 56 17 12 10 5 NA NA * 2/1/08 1/12/08 12/9/07 11/1/07 64 68 70 71 14 11 12 11 8 11 10 9 10 6 5 6 3 3 3 2 0 * * * 2 * NA " * * * 1 10/29/03 9/13/03 55 64 19 15 15 14 8 5 4 NA * 1 NA " 0 1 5. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) I'm going to read a list of candidates for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop: Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie ---------------- 2015 -------------11/19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 5 8 10 13 13 20 22 21 18 6 7 7 2 3 1 4 5 6 -------- 2014 ---------12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 15 15 14 18 7 6 NA NA 8 7 10 13 Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Paul Ryan Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion 7 4 NA 1 3 0 2 * 3 NA 11 NA 1 33 NA * 2 1 3 6 5 NA 1 3 0 2 1 3 NA 9 NA * 32 NA 1 1 1 3 7 2 * * 3 1 3 * 4 1 6 NA 1 34 2 2 2 2 3 4 * NA * 7 2 2 2 6 3 9 NA 1 23 11 1 5 1 2 7 2 NA 1 9 1 3 1 11 2 9 NA 3 5 11 * 1 1 6 13 1 NA 1 8 1 1 NA 9 2 7 NA 2 NA 12 1 3 1 4 8 NA NA NA 6 3 2 NA 11 5 6 11 3 NA 6 * 2 * 7 4 NA NA NA 11 2 2 NA 12 6 8 8 3 NA 1 1 3 1 10 6 NA NA NA 13 1 2 NA 14 6 7 11 NA NA 5 1 4 * 5 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11 NA 10 20 NA NA NA 2 4 1 9 Among reg voters: Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Jim Gilmore Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Paul Ryan Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion --------------- 2015 --------------11/19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 6 7 8 12 10 21 22 22 20 6 8 6 2 3 1 3 6 7 8 6 7 4 8 12 4 5 2 * 2 1 NA NA 0 NA NA NA 1 1 * * 1 1 3 3 3 8 9 8 0 0 1 2 * 1 3 2 3 2 3 1 * 1 * 1 1 NA 3 2 5 6 11 8 NA NA 1 4 2 1 11 10 7 7 10 8 NA NA NA NA NA NA 1 * 1 1 4 2 32 32 33 24 4 NA NA NA 2 13 11 13 * 1 1 * * 1 1 1 1 4 2 3 1 0 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 2 5 4 --------- 2014 --------12/14 10/12 4/27 1/23 14 13 12 18 8 7 NA NA 7 8 9 14 8 4 7 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 7 12 14 NA 3 2 2 NA 2 2 1 NA NA NA NA NA 10 12 15 11 5 6 5 NA 7 8 6 10 11 9 12 18 3 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA 7 2 5 NA * 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 * 0 * 1 6 9 5 9 6. (IF NAMED A CANDIDATE) Who would your second choice be? Which candidate would you lean toward as your second choice? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED SECOND CHOICE Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Gen pop 11 16 6 11 3 1 6 0 2 * RVs 9 16 7 12 3 * 6 0 2 * Rand Paul Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) No opinion 5 17 1 14 * 4 3 5 17 1 13 * 3 3 7. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Regardless of who you support, which candidate do you think is most likely to win the Republican nomination for president? (Candidates not read) Jeb Bush Ben Carson Chris Christie Ted Cruz Carly Fiorina Lindsey Graham Mike Huckabee Bobby Jindal John Kasich George Pataki Rand Paul Rick Perry Marco Rubio Rick Santorum Donald Trump Scott Walker Other No opinion 11/19/15 6 19 1 4 * 0 * 0 1 0 1 NA 13 * 39 NA 1 14 10/18/15 12 15 1 3 1 NA 2 0 * NA 1 NA 5 1 42 NA * 16 3/29/15 33 1 4 12 * NA 4 * 0 NA 5 2 4 1 NA 8 2 23 8. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Thinking about just five of these candidates – (Trump), (Carson), (Bush), (Rubio) and (Cruz) – who do you think [ITEM]? Full item wording: a. is the most honest and trustworthy b. has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president c. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2016 d. has the best experience to be president e. would do the most to bring needed change to Washington 11/19/15 - Summary Table Most honest Trump 23 Carson 34 Bush 11 Rubio 12 Cruz 10 All of them (vol.) 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 None of them (vol.) 4 No opinion 6 Best personality 20 26 18 20 11 0 1 1 3 Trend where available: a. is the most honest and trustworthy 11/19/15 10/18/15 Best chance 38 22 10 17 6 0 1 * 5 Best experience 21 8 33 16 11 * 1 4 5 Bring change 47 22 7 11 9 * 1 1 3 Trump Carson Fiorina Bush Rubio Cruz All of them (vol.) Any 2 or more (vol.) None of them (vol.) No opinion 23 34 NA 11 12 10 1 1 4 6 21 33 7 10 10 7 * 1 6 5 b. has the best personality and temperament to serve effectively as president 11/19/15 Trump 20 Carson 26 Fiorina NA Bush 18 Rubio 20 Cruz 11 All of them (vol.) 0 Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 None of them (vol.) 1 No opinion 3 10/18/15 19 24 10 15 14 5 1 1 1 11 c. has the best chance of getting elected president in November 2016 11/19/15 Trump 38 Carson 22 Fiorina NA Bush 10 Rubio 17 Cruz 6 All of them (vol.) 0 Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 None (vol.) * No opinion 5 10/18/15 43 16 3 13 11 4 * * 1 8 d. has the best experience to be president 11/19/15 Trump 21 Carson 8 Fiorina NA Bush 33 Rubio 16 Cruz 11 All of them (vol.) * Any 2 or more (vol.) 1 None (vol.) 4 No opinion 5 10/18/15 23 8 3 31 12 8 1 1 7 7 e. No trend. 9. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBLICANS) Now of those items, which is most important to you personally? Is it supporting the candidate who (is the most honest and trustworthy), (has the best personality and temperament), (has the best chance of getting elected), (has the best experience) or (is likeliest to bring needed change to Washington)? Most honest Best personality Best chance Best experience Bring change No opinion 11/19/15 28 2 4 11 52 2 10. (ASKED OF LEANED REPUBILICANS) Again, thinking about (Trump), (Carson), (Bush), (Rubio) and (Cruz) – who do you trust more to handle [ITEM]? 11/19/15 – Summary Table Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz All of them (vol.) Any 2 or more (vol.) None (vol.) No opinion The economy 47 15 12 11 9 1 0 2 3 Health care 26 35 11 11 9 1 0 3 4 Immigration issues 45 10 13 18 9 * * * 4 The threat of terrorism 42 10 18 13 9 1 * 1 6 Tax policy 42 15 11 14 10 1 1 2 5 11. (ASKED OF LEANED DEMOCRATS) I'm going to read a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote? Which candidate would you lean toward? 11/19/15 - NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE Among gen pop: Joe Biden Lincoln Chafee Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Brian Schweitzer Elizabeth Warren Jim Webb Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion ---------------- 2015 -------------11/19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 NA 15 21 14 14 11 NA * 1 1 1 NA 59 56 46 62 63 66 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2 1 2 1 2 1 35 22 20 14 9 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 11 NA 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 * 1 2 4 2 3 1 0 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 4 2 2 3 -------- 2014 12/14 10/12 14 13 NA NA 63 65 NA NA 1 1 4 1 NA NA 11 10 3 3 * 0 1 2 1 * 2 5 --------6/1 1/23 12 12 NA NA 66 73 2 NA 1 NA 2 NA 1 NA 7 8 2 NA 0 1 2 2 * * 4 3 ---------------- 2015 -------------11/19 10/18 9/10 7/19 5/31 3/29 NA 16 21 12 14 12 NA * 1 * 1 NA 60 54 42 63 62 66 NA NA NA NA NA NA 3 1 2 1 3 * 34 23 24 14 10 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 12 NA 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 * 1 2 5 3 4 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 2 1 2 -------- 2014 12/14 10/12 14 13 NA NA 61 64 NA NA * 1 4 1 NA NA 13 11 3 2 * 0 1 3 1 0 2 5 --------6/1 1/23 12 11 NA NA 69 73 2 NA 2 NA 2 NA 1 NA 7 9 1 NA 0 * 2 3 0 * 2 4 Among reg voters: Joe Biden Lincoln Chafee Hillary Clinton Andrew Cuomo Martin O'Malley Bernie Sanders Brian Schweitzer Elizabeth Warren Jim Webb Other (vol.) None of these (vol.) Would not vote (vol.) No opinion 12. Which of these is the single most important issue in your choice for president? Is it (the economy), (health care), (immigration issues), (tax policy) or (the threat of terrorism)? 11/19/15 Economy 33 Health care 13 Immigration issues 10 Tax policy 5 Threat of terrorism 28 Other (vol.) 1 Any 2 or more (vol.) 9 None (vol.) 1 No opinion 1 13. Do you support or oppose the United States taking in refugees from the conflicts in Syria and other Mideast countries after screening them for security? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 43 23 20 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 54 14 40 No opinion 3 14. How confident are you that the United States can identify and keep out possible terrorists who may be among these refugees – very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident or not confident at all? 11/19/15 --- More confident -NET Very Somewhat 47 13 34 ----- Less confident ---NET Not so Not at all 52 23 29 No opinion 1 15. The Islamic State, or ISIS, has been targeting people who are not fundamentalist Sunni Muslims. This includes (Shiite Muslims), (moderate Sunni Muslims), (Yazidis), and (Christians), among others. To the extent that the United States accepts refugees from these areas, do you think it should give [special consideration to Christians], or do you think it should give [equal consideration to all people who’ve been persecuted by ISIS, regardless of their religion]? 11/19/15 Special consideration to Christians 18 Equal consideration to all people 78 No opinion 4 16. Who would you trust more to handle the threat of terrorism – Hillary Clinton or [ITEM]? 11/19/15 – Summary Table a. b. c. d. e. Jeb Bush Marco Rubio Donald Trump Ben Carson Ted Cruz Clinton 46 47 50 49 48 Republican candidate 43 43 42 40 40 Neither (vol.) 7 5 6 6 6 Both equally (vol.) * * * * * No opinion 3 5 1 4 6 17. How likely do you think it is that in the near future there will be a terrorist attack in the United States causing large numbers of lives to be lost: very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely, or not likely at all? 11/19/15 11/19/15 11/2/15* 9/29/13 5/3/11 1/11/10 7/25/05 5/3/04 2/19/02 12/5/01 *11/5/15 ---- More likely ---------- Less likely ------NET Very Somewhat NET Not very Not at all 81 38 43 18 12 6 RV 83 40 43 16 11 5 RV 73 32 41 24 19 5 RV 72 28 44 23 17 6 RV 63 22 41 34 27 7 RV 78 35 43 20 16 4 RV 85 40 45 14 10 4 RV 76 26 50 21 16 5 RV 80 31 49 17 14 3 74 31 43 24 17 7 and earlier: Quinnipiac University poll. No opinion 1 1 3 4 4 2 1 3 4 3 18. How much confidence do you have in the ability of the U.S. government to prevent further terrorist attacks against Americans in this country: a great deal, a good amount, only a fair amount or none at all? 11/19/15 9/2/10 9/7/07 9/7/06 1/26/06 9/11/05 8/21/05 9/8/04 RV 9/7/03 9/8/02 7/15/02 6/9/02 5/19/02 3/10/02 1/27/02 11/27/01 11/6/01 9/11/01 6/2/97 8/5/96 5/14/95 4/20/95 6/28/93 4/3/89 ------- More confident ------NET Great deal Good amount 45 15 29 44 12 32 49 15 34 46 15 31 50 19 31 41 14 27 42 14 28 52 16 35 45 14 31 50 12 38 46 13 33 44 14 30 46 17 29 55 18 38 57 18 40 63 24 39 52 17 35 66 35 31 35 10 26 35 12 23 36 12 24 37 13 24 59 22 37 46 16 30 ---- Less confident ---NET Fair amount None 55 40 15 56 45 11 50 40 10 53 43 10 49 39 11 59 41 18 57 43 15 47 39 8 55 48 7 49 43 6 54 45 9 55 44 11 52 42 10 44 39 5 42 37 6 36 32 5 47 40 7 32 30 2 62 52 10 65 49 16 63 51 12 62 51 11 41 32 8 54 38 16 No opinion 1 * 1 1 * * * 1 1 * * * 2 * 1 1 1 1 3 * 1 1 1 * 19. What do you think is more important right now - (for the federal government to investigate possible terrorist threats, even if that intrudes on personal privacy); or (for the federal government not to intrude on personal privacy, even if that limits its ability to investigate possible terrorist threats)? 11/19/15 1/15/15 7/21/13 6/9/13* 11/21/10 1/15/10 12/11/06 9/7/06 Investigate threats 72 63 57 62 68 75 63 65 Don't intrude on privacy 25 32 39 34 26 23 34 32 No opinion 3 5 4 4 6 2 3 3 5/15/06 67 30 3 5/11/06 65 31 4 1/8/06 65 32 3 9/7/03** 73 21 5 9/8/02 78 18 4 6/9/02 79 18 3 *Washington Post/Pew Research Center **9/7/03 and previous: "FBI" rather than "federal government 20. As you may know, the group called the Islamic State, or ISIS, has taken responsibility for attacks that killed about 130 people in Paris last week. Do you think the United States should or should not take part in a military response to these attacks? 11/19/15 Should 73 Should not 23 No opinion 4 21. (IF TAKE PART) Do you think the United States should take a (leading) role in a military response to these attacks, or a (supporting) role? 11/19/15 Leading 31 Supporting 68 No opinion 1 Q20/21 NET: 11/19/15 --------- Should take part -------NET Leading Supporting No op. 73 23 50 * Should not take part 23 No opinion 4 22. Do you support or oppose [ITEM] against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria? you feel that way strongly or somewhat? Do 11/19/15 – Summary Table a. increased U.S. air strikes b. the increased use of U.S. ground forces -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly No opinion 73 52 21 23 13 9 4 60 33 27 37 16 21 3 Trend: a. increased U.S. air strikes 11/19/15 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 73 52 21 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 23 13 9 No opinion 4 Compare to: Do you support or oppose the U.S.-led air strikes that are under way against Islamic State insurgents and related targets in Syria? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 9/28/14 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 70 42 28 --------- Oppose -------NET Somewhat Strongly 26 12 14 No opinion 3 Compare to: Do you support or oppose U.S. air strikes against the Sunni insurgents in Iraq? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 9/7/14 8/17/14 6/22/14 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 71 52 19 54 31 23 45 20 25 --------- Oppose -------NET Somewhat Strongly 23 11 12 39 17 22 46 19 27 No opinion 7 8 8 b. No trend. Compare to: Do you support or oppose sending U.S. ground forces to combat the Sunni insurgents in Iraq? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 6/22/14 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 30 14 16 --------- Oppose -------NET Somewhat Strongly 65 22 42 No opinion 6 23. (ASK IF SUPPORT INCREASED USE OF GROUND FORCES) Should that be a large number of U.S. ground forces or not a large number? 11/19/15 Large number 55 Not large number 41 No opinion 5 22a/23 NET: 11/19/15 ---- Support increased ground forces --NET Large number Not large No op. 60 33 25 3 Oppose increased ground forces 37 No opinion 3 24. Do you think the United States is at war with radical Islam, or not? 11/19/15 At war 59 Not at war 37 No opinion 4 Changing topics, 25. Do you think global warming, also known as climate change, is a serious problem facing this country, or not a serious problem? (IF SERIOUS) Would you say it’s a very serious problem, or a problem but not a very serious one? 11/19/15 6/1/14 ------ Serious -----NET Very Not very 63 52 12 69 57 12 Not a serious problem 36 29 No opinion 1 2 26. Do you think the federal government should do more than it's doing now to try to deal with global warming, should do less than it's doing now, or is it doing about the right amount? (IF MORE) Should it do much more or somewhat more? (IF LESS) Should it do much less or somewhat less? ------- More -------Right -------- Less ------No NET Much Somewhat amount NET Somewhat Much opinion 11/19/15 47 32 14 32 18 8 11 3 7/28/08 61 40 21 27 10 4 6 2 4/10/07 70 49 20 21 7 2 5 2 3/14/06 68 46 22 25 5 2 3 1 *2008, ABC/Planet Green/Stanford University; 2007, ABC/Post/Stanford; 2006, 27. Do you think (most scientists agree with one another) about whether or not global warming is happening, or do you think (there is a lot of disagreement among scientists) on this issue? Most agree A lot of disagreement No opinion 11/19/15 43 51 6 12/13/09 36 62 2 7/28/08* 39 57 4 4/10/07 40 56 3 3/14/06 35 64 1 2/13/98 30 67 3 10/5/97 35 62 3 *2008, ABC/Planet Green/Stanford University; 2007, ABC/Post/Stanford; 2006, ABC/Time/Stanford; 1998 and 1997, Ohio State University. 28. There are about 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the United States. Would you support or oppose an effort by the federal government to deport all these undocumented immigrants and send them back to their home countries? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? 11/19/15 -------- Support -------NET Strongly Somewhat 42 29 13 -------- Oppose --------NET Somewhat Strongly 55 21 34 No opinion 2 Party ID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or what? 11/19/15 10/18/15 9/10/15 7/19/15 5/31/15 3/29/15 1/15/15 12/14/14 10/26/14 10/12/14 9/7/14 Democrat 33 30 33 30 30 30 30 26 32 31 33 Republican 23 24 22 21 22 22 24 23 24 24 23 Independent 36 39 35 39 36 38 37 41 36 36 38 Other (vol.) 4 4 5 7 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 No opinion 4 2 4 4 6 3 3 3 3 3 2 *** END *** METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and ABC News. The poll is a random sample of the continental United States, not including Alaska and Hawaii, with interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document, other than the party identification question which was asked after question 4. Demographics and questions on voter registration and religious identity not shown. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. Results preceded by “RV” indicate results among registered voters. A dual frame landline and cellular phone telephone sample was generated using Random Digit Dialing procedures. Interviewers called landlines cellular phone numbers, first requesting to speak with the youngest adult male or female at home. The final sample included 351 interviews completed on landlines and 653 interviews completed via cellular phones, including 400 interviews with adults in cell phone-only households. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are also weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey March Social and Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.34 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Group All adults Registered voters Leaned Democrats Leaned Republicans Registered Leaned Dems Registered Leaned Reps Unweighted sample size 1,004 831 434 423 352 373 Error margin +/- 3.5 points 4 5.5 5.5 6 6 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls.