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NRSC Senior Staff
Ward Baker
September 22, 2015
Observations on Donald Trump and 2016

The place is Cleveland, Ohio. The date is July 21, 2016 and
Donald Trump has just accepted the nomination of the
Republican Party to be its nominee for President of the United
States.
Not since liberal Republican businessman Wendell Willkie won
the GOP nomination in 1940, had another dark horse candidate
stood as its nominee for President.
And, Willkie and Trump have a lot in common. Both were seen
as fresh-faced outsiders. Each had the backing or received the
promotion of major news media outlets, and both we’re
outside of the established political order.
Willkie would go on to lose to wartime President Franklin
Roosevelt, but this time it’s harder to predict an outcome
because of the volatility of the electorate. Trump has risen
because voters see him as authentic, independent, direct, firm,
--- and believe he can’t be bought. These are the same character
traits our candidates should be advancing in 2016. That’s
Trump lesson #1.
We should prepare for 2016, by understanding the
environment and recognizing the Trump phenomenon.
The following are a series of recommendations to consider if
Donald Trump is the GOP nominee in 2016:

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  Trump is a Misguided Missile. Let’s face facts. Trump
says what’s on his mind and that’s a problem. Our
candidates will have to spend full time defending him or
condemning him if that continues. And, that’s a place we
never, ever want to be. It is certain that all GOP
candidates will be tied in some way to our nominee, but
we need not be tied to him so closely that we have to
engage in permanent cleanup or distancing maneuvers.
 Run Your Own Race. You’re running for the U.S. Senate so
focus on that. Don’t get drawn into every Trump
statement and every Trump dust-up. Keep the focus on
your own campaign and the voters back home.
 Show your Independence. As we know, Trump is subject
to farcical fits. You can still obey the “run your own
campaign” edict, while still taking Trump to task on
outrageous statements where the media won’t let you off
the hook. Choose opportunities to take the moral high
ground while exerting your independence.
 Remember the Basics. Every campaign is about telling
voters who you are, what you want to do, and why you’re
the best choice for the job. Turn your biography into a
compelling narrative that shows you’re one of them.
Promote a new vision (what you want to do) and own the
future. Stake out new issue turf or reframe issues so it
has a new look to it. This allows you to separate from the
national debate, promote issues you care about in a new
manner, and it’s harder for opponents to knock since
you’re offering a future vision.
 Change the Look. It’s time to change the way you and
your campaign are presented. Lose the suit and visit
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 people in their homes and places of work. Hold sessions
where you listen to people and capture audio and video of
them discussing their real world problems.
People talk about problems, not issues. So, focus on the
problems and offer your solutions. Avoid Washingtonspeak (legislation, bills, insider talk) in favor of Main
Street common sense.
And, tell your communications and media teams to up the
vibe and change the look. Voters are on to you when you
do the standard walk and talk through a business, school,
or factory. Try a new look and have business owners,
constituents, family members, and workers talk about
you. Have them talk about a problem you solved, a
solution you came up with, or the life-changing moment
you delivered on. Feature them in your issue phase while
you assume the role of a citizen-servant. This also protects
you from opposition attacks since real world people are
talking about real world things you did for them. How can
someone challenge that?
To accomplish the above, each campaign must line up the
citizen narrators or storytellers now. Review your
constituent files and find the old letters thanking you for
solving a problem. Next, get permission to use their story
in your campaign. Vet each person so they can handle the
scrutiny. Populate your web content with stories instead
of typical issue jargon. Instead of a webpage heading that
says “JOBS” feature a working person talking about the
importance of having a job, getting a better job, or
working one job instead of two to make ends meet. Then,
have them talk about your first job, the lessons you
learned, and why better jobs at higher wages can make all
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 the difference for our working families. When you change
the look of your campaign, you distance yourself from the
national narrative and the Trump entertainment.
 Special Note: Consider doing some of the jobs the
workers do in the machine shops, small businesses, and
factories you visit. Have the employee show you what
they do and then try to do it. This changes the visual
narrative so it’s more personal and engaging.
 Understand the Changing Environment and
Recalibrate Now. The Trump phenomenon exists
because Washington politicians promise change, but don’t
deliver. Your job is to deliver.
In the past two cycles it was easy to say, “Washington’s
broken” but in 2016, you need to demonstrate that you’ll
rip up the rotten roots and begin anew. To get on the
reformist wave, advance clear-cut reforms that change
the way Washington works. The best way to do this is to
highlight reforms that you have previously advanced, or
discuss reforms that are working in your state. You can
also feature stories of reformers who have changed things
for the better. This gives people hope, and it shows you
offering a positive future vision.
> Special Note: Consider visuals that communicate
change and reform. Feature candidates working on an old
engine and note how sometimes you have to do a
complete overhaul to get things working. Consider
featuring a candidate in a field ripping up a rotten tree
stump so the field can be cleared and planting can be
done. Have a constituent or citizen talking about the
candidate cleaning up the mess in Washington as the
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 candidate participates in a street cleaning &
beautification campaign.
Post a reform tab on your website and feature stories of
real world reforms that can change Washington. Be sure
to feature reformers in your videos, on your YouTube
channel, and in social media. Promote tweets that push
reforms or condemn Washington’s dysfunction. The time
to build the case against Washington (even if you are part
of it) is now, not in the final three months of the election.
Finally, call on citizens to post their own reform
recommendations and then select the best of the lot. This
“bottom up” method allows you to say that the reforms
are from regular citizens. Post the best ideas, promote
discussions on your social platforms, and discuss them on
your YouTube channel, talk radio, podcasts, and TV
appearances.
 Special Note: Always bring the campaign back home to
real people and their daily struggle. The Trump show may
be going on, but back home our families are in a fight for
their livelihoods. Keep your narrative on them, not the
national scene. Tell stories of citizens overcoming
obstacles and succeeding. Sell optimism. Promote hope.
Story-based messaging allows you to plough new ground
and own the field.
 Trump Can Hit the Right Chord. We may not like it, but
Trump has connected with voters on issues like trade
with China and America’s broken borders. When Trump
was criticized on building a wall to stop immigration, he
noted how Israel successfully built walls that were cost
effective and did the job. Trump will continue to advance
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 those messages, but you don’t have to go along with his
more extreme positioning. Instead, you should stake out
turf in the same issue zone and offer your own ideas.
Target China on industrial espionage. Hit China on its
cyber war against the U.S. government. Focus on China
breaking existing trade rules and using Chinese
government intervention to create an unfair advantage.
On immigration, select areas where reform can be done
and should be done. One example is better tracking of
those who violate their tourist visa. Governor Christie
recently noted that 40% of those in our country illegally
overstayed their visas. This is a highly correctable matter
and a reform that should be promoted. Select some
commonsense and doable reforms.
 Trump and Women. Houston, we have a problem:
Donald Trump has said some wacky things about women.
Candidates shouldn’t go near this ground other than to
say that your wife or daughter is offended by what Trump
said. We do not want to reengage the “war on women”
fight so isolate Trump on this issue by offering a quick
condemnation of it.
 Trump Rises Because People Understand Him. Trump
is saying that the Emperor has no clothes and he
challenges our politically correct times. Our candidates
shouldn’t miss this point. Don’t insult key voter cohorts
by ignoring that America has significant problems and
that Trump is offering some basic solutions. Understand
the populist points Trump makes and ride that wave.

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  We Can’t Afford to Depress the GOP Vote. Spending full
time attacking our own nominee will ensure that the GOP
vote is depressed. That will only serve to topple GOP
candidates at every level. Maintain the right amount of
independence, but avoid piling on the nominee.
 Covering the Trump Bet. Conventional wisdom has
counted Trump out on several occasions. But, Trump
continues to rise and the criticisms seem to make him
stronger. Trump has been gaining Democrat adherents
and he’s solidifying GOP cohorts who feel they’ve been
totally ignored by the Washington Ruling Class. If the
environment aligns properly, Trump could win. It’s not a
bet most would place now, but it could happen. That’s
why it’s important for our candidates to run their own
races, limit the Trump criticisms (other than obvious free
kicks), and grab onto the best elements of the antiWashington populist agenda.
This memo is written under the assumption that Donald
Trump wins the nomination. We don’t have a crystal ball, but
in 1940, few were predicting that an Indiana businessman with
New York connections would win the Republican nomination
for President of the United States.

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