For the latest data, click here.
December 10, 2015
The Houston Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a short-term leading indicator for regional
production, registered 44.9 in November, down from 48.0 in October according to the
latest report from the Institute for Supply Management-Houston (ISM-Houston). With the
November reading, the PMI has signaled contraction for 11 consecutive months.

70

Houston Purchasing Managers Index
50 = Neutral

Expansion

65
60
55

Contraction

50
45
40
35
30
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
'11
Source: Institute for Supply Management-Houston

'12

'13

'14

'15

'16

The PMI has a possible range from zero to 100. Readings above the neutral point of 50
indicate likely growth in production over the next three to four months; readings below
50 suggest contraction. After reaching a low of 42.7 in April, Houston’s PMI showed signs
of improvement and hovered just below 50 for the past four months. The PMI weakened
again in November as the rig count continues to decline and oil prices are not forecasted
to rebound in the near-term.
“Health care continues to be the only sector of the economy showing significant
strength,” reports Ross Harvison, ISM-Houston Business Survey Committee Chair.
“Construction continues to expand at a relatively low pace and non-durable goods
manufacturing, financial services, and professional services continue to perform near

 neutral overall. Wholesale trade and durable goods manufacturing moved to below
neutral in the latest results, potentially joining oil and gas exploration related industries
as major concerns that could impact the near term growth of the Houston economy.”
The Partnership has been tracking the PMI since January of ’95. The all-time low for the
Houston PMI was in March ’09, when the indicator fell to 39.0 percent. The all-time high
was in January of ’06, when the PMI reached 67.9. Over the past 21 years, the PMI has
tracked at 50 or above for 212 months and below 50 for 39 months.
The Houston PMI is derived from monthly surveys of local purchasing managers
representing various industries such as manufacturing, healthcare, electronics, finance
and energy. The index is based on eight components: sales/new orders, production,
employment, purchases, prices paid, lead times, purchased inventory and finished goods
inventory.
Prepared by Greater Houston Partnership Research Department
Patrick Jankowski, CCR
Senior Vice President, Research
713-844-3616
pjankowski@houston.org

Jenny Philip
Senior Manager, Economic Research
713-844-3615
jphilip@houston.org