from: XXX, F4 division, 18 October 1983 E.R DEMONSTRATIONS ABOUT DEFENCE POLICY: LONDON, 22 OCTOBER The Metropolitan Police have provided an assessment of the demonstrations, against and for nuclear defence policy, planned to take place in London this Saturday, 22 October, together with an outline of their operational planning. 2. The details of the police report are set out in the attached draft letter to No 10. The principal points are that: (a) the CND are planning two marches, by different routes, from Victoria Embankment to Hyde Park, where there will be a rally addressed by Mr Kinnock and CND leaders among others. The police have successfully whittled away at the CND's initial plans to encircle the centre of London. The CND claim to expect 150-200,000 or more supporters. The current police estimate is that the numbers may be more like 50-70,000, but the intelligence on this will be reviewed nearer the time. The CND are not planning, and at national level may be expected strongly to wish to avoid, any disorder; but some supporters may attempt to engage in non-violent direct action, and people on the fringes of the "peace movement" may attempt to exploit the events (cf the "Stop the City" campaign on 29 September); (b) the two other, comparatively minor events are a rally and vigil in Trafalgar Square by XXX Women and Families for Defence, which she estimates may attract 2-3,000 people and which is expected to be orderly; and a rally at Speaker's Corner organised by the Coalition for Peace through Security, who are strongly opposed to the CND, have declined to co-operate with the police because they believe them to have given the CND too much licence, and are unlikely to cause policing difficulties, except that they might seek to protest from their offices in Whitehall as the CND marchers pass by; (c) the police are planning a major operation, to deploy some 4,000 officers, with reserves available, and with contingency arrangements for handling attempts at mass offending (for example, by obstruction); and (d) the police will update their assessment and, as necessary, their planning, nearer to Saturday. We will, of course, report any significant developments.E.R. 3. If the Home Secretary agrees, you may wish to write to No 10 on the lines of the attached draft tomorrow. For evident reasons, the letter might be copied to Mr Heseltine's office as well as Sir Robert Armstrong's. XXX 18 October 1983 F4 DivisionCONFIDENTIAL FILE NUMBER DRAFT LETTER ADDRESSEE'S REFERENCE  TO:  Private Secretary 10 Downing Street  (FULL POSTAL ADDRESS)  COPIES TO BE SENT TO: PS/S of S for Defence PS/Sir Robert Armstrong (FULL ADDRESSES, IF NECESSARY) LETTER DRAFTED FOR SIGNATURE BY - PS/Home Secretary (NAME OF SIGNATORY) DEMONSTRATIONS ABOUT NUCIEAR DEFENCE POLICY: LONDON 22 OCTOBER The Home Secretary believes that the Prime Minister may wish to have the current assessment from the Metropolitan Police of demonstrations about nuclear defence policy to take place in London on Saturday 22 October, and an indication of the policing arrangements which have been planned. By far the largest events will be two marches and a rally against the deployment of cruise missiles organised by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. The CND claim to be expecting altogether between 150,000 and 200,000 supporters if not more. The police's current estimate is that the number may be between 50,000 and 70,000, although that may alter nearer the time and even numbers of that order will require a major policing operation. CND supporters are to gather at Victoria Embankment, to move off at 11.30 am by two routes to the rally in Hyde Park. Speakers expected there include the leader of the Opposition, XXX and Ms Joan Ruddock of the CND and XXX. The rally is planned to end at about 5.00 pm. One route to the rally will take marchers initially in almost a circle, ie up Northumberland Avenue to the east of Trafalgar Square, along the Strand, south across Waterloo Bridge, past the Royal Festival Hall and County Hall, north H.O. EST. 112across Westminster Bridge and turning right along Victoria Embankment; the route will then be up Horseguards Avenue, left down Whitehall to Parliament Square, along Broad Sanctuary to Victoria Street, Bressenden and Grosvenor Places to eastern Hyde Park Corner and the Park. The other, shorter route will not cross the Thames, but go by the side of Victoria Embankment Gardens, up Horseguards Avenue to turn right up Whitehall, past the west of Trafalgar Square and along Cockspur Street and Pall Mall, right up St James's Street and left down Piccadilly to western Hyde Park Corner and the Park. The routes have been agreed only after protracted negotiations between the police and the CND. Press reports that the police have "climbed down" are wrong. The arrangements are a considerable modification of CND's initial plan, which was to encircle the centre of London and close it to traffic. As a variant, CND wanted Westminster Bridge closed, to enable both marches to converge in Bridge Street; the Bridge will not be closed, and the one point of convergence will be in Horseguards Avenue. Traffic management will still be difficult, but at all but a few points traffic will be able to pass alongside the marchers, and there will be crossing points for pedestrians and vehicles. The police accept CND's claim that their intention is to hold a peaceful event, not least because of the association with the speakers at the rally. CND are hoping to create a carnival atmosphere, with marching bands and other entertainments. There can, however, be no guarantee that there may not be some disorder, or the need to make arrests for 'peaceful' offences. The events may attract an extremist fringe; and the 'Stop the City' campaign on 29 September, when 200 people had to be arrested, mainly for obstruction, is a recent example of the willingness of some members of the 'peace movement' to resort to non-violent direct action. One influence may be the nature of other demonstrations elsewhere in western Europe, particularly in western Germany, this week; with the exception of that in Bremerharven last weekend, those appear so far to have been peaceful. Two other groups are arranging pro defence policy events in London on Saturday. Women for Families and Defence, organised by XXX, are to hold a rally and vigil in Trafalgar Square from 2.00 pm to 9.00 pm, with the theme "Peace and Freedom". XXX estimates that between 2,000 and 3,000 people will attend; the police certainly doubt that there will be more, and have no reason to expect disorder.In addition, the Coalition for Peace through Security (CPS) are hoping to organise a small rally at Speakers' Corner at some time during the day. The CPS have refused to discuss their plans in any more detail with the police because they consider the police have co-operated too closely with the CND. The CPS rally is not expected to be disorderly, although the organisation may seek to use their offices in Whitehall, just opposite the Whitehall Theatre, to express their opposition to the marchers as they pass by. The police plan to deploy some 4,000 officers to police the demonstrations, with significant numbers in reserve ready to respond either because of develop- ments at the demonstrations or as needed at the five football grounds in London where teams are playing at home on 22 October. The police are in close liaison with those responsible for premises on the routes of the CND marches, including the security officers of Government buildings; and they have made contingency arrangements to deal with large scale attempts at obstruction or other forms of non-violent direct action. The police will up-date their assessment nearer to 22 October and I shall, of course, let you know if they report any significant developments. I am copying this letter to the Private Secretary to the Secretary of State for Defence and to the Private Secretary to Sir Robert Armstrong.From Commander R. INNES, A8 Branch NEW SCOTLAND YARD BROADWAY, LONDON, SW1H 0BG 12th October 1983 Our Ref A8/9/3l3/83 XXX Home Office Queen Anne's Gate LONDON SW1H 9AT Dear XXX Thank you for your kind salutations! The CND Event of 22nd October 1983 is one of three to be staged in London that day. I will briefly outline each one. CND MARCH AND RALLY The organisers estimate that 150,000 to 200,000 people will assemble from 10.30 am at staggered intervals in Victoria Embankment, SW1 to march off at 11.30 am. Two routes are proposed and these are shown on the attached map. It is becoming more evident that CND intend to add a 'carnival' atmosphere to the occasion by the inclusion of marching and static bands, puppeteers and so on. The GLC are proposing to provide musical entertainment in Jubilee Gardens throughout the day. A rally in Hyde Park marks the end of the demonstration. Speakers so far invited include Ms XXX, XXX, MP XXX, XXX, and Luciana XXX. Dispersal should be from 5.00 pm onwards. WOMEN AND FAMILIES FOR DEFENCE XXX organises this event. A peaceful rally and vigil is envisaged on Trafalgar Square from 2.00 pm until 9.00 pm. The theme is 'Peace and Freedom' with particular emphasis on the activities of the Soviet Regime. Lady MAITLAND estimates that 2,000 - 3,000 people will attend. COALITION FOR PEACE THROUGH SECURITY XXX organises this event. A small rally is proposed on Speakers Corner at some time during the day. Unfortunately, at this time little more can be added since CPS have declined to meet with police taking the view that we have allowed CND toomuch license over the route which passes along Whitehall beneathCPS Headquarters just opposite the Whitehall Theatre. As you probably know, the group is a small but media orientated 'lobby' group opposed very fundamentally to the CND standpoint. A typical slogan used by CPS of CND would read - C - Communists N - Neutralists D - Defeatists It cannot be discounted that CPS will also stage some form of protest from their offices in Whitehall. On previous occasions such protest has consisted of the playing of patriotic music and the raising of the national flag! POLICE ASSESSMENT All the indications to date are that all organisations intend to conduct peaceful demonstrations. However, there is no guarantee from anyone that some form of disorder will not occur. Regrettably, there are 'militant' pacifists predominantly on the 'fringe' of CND. The recent example of the 'Stop the City Campaign' illustrates the point. Some 200 arrests were made largely for relatively minor offences viz : wilful obstruction of the highway. There is growing concern amongst such elements of CND that more recourse should now be made to Non Violent Direct Action or Mass Civil Disobedience at this critical point of the Campaign. As you will appreciate it is very difficult to estimate the numbers attending such a rally as CND envisage. Nearer to the date it will be possible to make a more accurate estimate. However, as of now, we estimate that between 50,000 - 70,000 will attend the CND event. POLICE NEGOTIATIONS As you may be aware negotiations have been protracted and difficult. With the help of P BUTLER, Department of the Environment, we have been able to 'untangle' some of the earlier conflicting demands over the use of Hyde Park and Trafalgar Square. CND in the earlier stages, were intent upon a scheme of demonstration comparable to the Amsterdam CND rally of 1981. The effect was to be one of total city centre closure. Gradually, through protracted negotiation, we have reached some form of final agreement leaving open of course any final sanction that may have to be made on the issue of serious potential disorder. At CND's request we met with XXX, GLC, on 30th September 1983. Present also were XXX MP, and XXX, Vice Chairman CND. The major stumbling block at that point concerned the use of Westminster Bridge. We took the3. view that it should not be closed so as to allow both routes to converge in Bridge Street. CND were adamant that their event warranted such a closure, not least of all because of the political magnitude of their protest. We were able to offer an alternative route whereby both marches  converged in Horse Guards Avenue as now shown on the map. I should emphasise that publicity given to a 'climb-down' by  police is totally inaccurate. The conclusion reached has been  achieved after much compromise by CND and with the interests of  public order, safety and convenience very much in our minds. TRAFFIC ARRANGEMENTS Traffic will be a major headache. However, in all but a few locations, local traffic will run alongside the marching columns. Crossing points will be established for both pedestrians and vehicles. We are very much aware of the need to safeguard the general interests of 'Londoners' that day. POLICE ARRANGEMENTS We have in mind a sizeable force to police these events somewhere in the region of 4,000 officers. DAC McLEAN will be in command together with six Commanders. Additional reserves will be available since there are five London Football Clubs at home that day. Contingency arrangements are in hand to deal with mass civil disobedience. A good degree of liaison is being achieved with those  responsible for premises along the route. For example Chief  Security officers for government buildings have attended Scotland  Yard for a meeting today. I would envisage that those with  commercial interests to safeguard will be less than happy with  this situation but to date no complaints have been received. Our Press and Publicity department are programmed to provide the  Force with their services should the need arise.  CONCLUSION I have written rather a lengthy letter of reply but I must add that it provides only a cursory outline to the subjects raised. If I can be of any more assistance, please contact me. XXX Commander Encl.RECEIVED BY PRIVATE SECRETARY 10 DOWNING STREET 21 October, 1983 From the Private Secretary Demonstration about Nuclear Defence Policy Thank you for your letter of 19 October about tomorrow's CND demonstration. The Prime Minister was grateful for and has noted the assessment of the Metropolitan Police.From: THE PRIVATE SECRETARY CONFIDENTIAL HOME OFFICE QUEEN ANNE'S GATE LONDON SW1H 9AT 19 October 1983 DEMONSTRATIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DEFENCE POLICY: LONDON 22 OCTOBER The Home Secretary believes that the Prime Minister may wish to have the current assessment from the Metropolitan Police of demonstrations about nuclear defence policy to take place in London on Saturday 22 October, and an indication of the policing arrangements which have been planned. By far the largest events will be two marches and a rally against the deployment of cruise missiles organised by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. The CND claim to be expecting altogether between 150,000 and 200,000 supporters if not more. The police's current estimate is that the number may be between 50,000 and 70,000 although that may alter nearer the time and even numbers of that order will require a major policing operation. CND supporters are to gather at Victoria Embankment, to move off at 11.30 am by two routes to the rally, in Hyde Park. Speakers expected there include the Leader of the Opposition, Monsignor XXX and XXX of the CND and Bishop Trevor Huddleston. The rally is planned to end at about 5.00 pm. One route to the rally will take marchers initially in almost a circle, ie up Northumberland Avenue to the east of Trafalgar Square, along the Strand, south across Waterloo Bridge, past the Royal Festival Hall and County Hall, north across Westminster Bridge and turning right along Victoria Embankment; the route will then be up Horseguards Avenue, left down Whitehall to Parliament Square, along Broad Sanctuary to Victoria Street, Bressenden and Grosvenor Places to eastern Hyde Park Corner and the Park. The other, shorter route will not cross the Thames, but go by the side of Victoria Embankment Gardens, up Horseguards Avenue to turn right up Whitehall, past the west of Trafalgar Square and along Cockspur Street and Pall Mall, right up St James's Street and left down Piccadilly to western Hyde Park Corner and the Park. The routes have been agreed only after protracted negotiations between the police and the CND. Press reports that the police have "climbed down" are wrong. The arrangements are a considerable modification of CND's initial plan, which was to encircle the centre of London and close it to traffic. As a variant, CND wanted Westminster Bridge closed, to enable both marches to converge in Bridge Street; the Bridge will not be closed, and the one point of convergence will be in Horseguards Avenue. Traffic management will still be difficult, but at all but a few points traffic will be able to pass alongside the marchers, and there will be crossing points for pedestrians and vehicles. /The police David Barclay, EsqThe police accept CND's claim that their intention is to hold a peacefu1 event, not least because of the association with the speakers at the rally. CND are hoping to create a carnival atmosphere, with marching bands and other entertain- ments. There can, however, be no guarantee that there may not be some disorder, or the need to make arrests fer 'peaceful' offences. The events may attract an extremist fringe; and the 'Stop the City' campaign on 29 September, when 200 people had to be arrested, mainly for obstruction, is a recent example of the willingness of some members of the 'peace movement' to resort to non-violent direct action. One influence may be the nature of other demonstrations elsewhere in Western Europe, particularly in western Germany, this week; with the exception of that in Bremerharven last weekend, those appear so far to have been peaceful. Two other groups are arranging pro defence policy events in London on Saturday. Women for Families and Defence, organised by XXX, are to hold a rally and vigil in Trafalgar Square from 2.00pm to 9.00 pm, with the theme "Peace and Freedom". XXX estimates that between 2,000 and 3,000 people will attend; the police certainly doubt that there will be more, and have no reason to expect disorder. In addition, the Coalition for Peace through Security (CPS) are hoping to organise a small rally at Speakers' Corner at some time during the day. The CPS have refused to discuss their plans in any more detail with the police because they consider the police have co-operated too closely with the CND. The CPS rally is not expected to be disorderly, although the organisation may seek to use their offices in Whitehall, just opposite the Whitehall Theatre, to express their opposition to the marchers as they pass by. The police plan to deploy some 4,000 officers to police the demonstration, with significant numbers in reserve ready to respond either because of developments at the demonstrations or as needed at the five football grounds in London where teams are playing at home on 22 October. The police are in close liaison with those responsible fer premises on the routes of the CND marches, including the security officers of Government buildings; and they have made contingency arrangements to deal with large scale attempts at obstruction or other forms of non-violent direct action. The police will up-date their assessment nearer to 22 October and I shall, of couse, let you know if they report any significant developments. I am copying this letter to the Private Secretary to the Secretary of State for Defence and to the Private Secretary to Sir Robert Armstrong. Yours ever, XXXE.R. PRISONERS IN POLICE CELLS: DEMONSTRATIONS IN LONDON ON 22/10 I thought you might wish to see in advance  of the meeting arranged for 5.30 today  the attached assessment from the Met  of the scale and character of the  events (principally the CND demonstration) planned for Saturday 22/10. We are drafting a note to PS/S of S,  and a PS letter to No 10, reporting  this assessment: I should therefore  be grateful to the letter again  after the meeting.  F4 17/10/83October 1983 CND DEMONSTRATION IN LONDON, 22 OCTOBER I understand that you have recently taken over from Douglas Cree, I should like to congratulate you on your new appointment. I am writing to ask you for an assessment of the prospects for the CND demonstration in London on 22 October and an indication of the arrangements that are being made to police this major event. It would be very helpful if the assessment could include details of the agreement which we believe has been reached between the CND and the Commissioner about the routes to be taken; the police estimate of the number of demonstrators who are likely to turn out; the numbers of police officers which it is intended to deploy; the likelihood of any disorder; and any other matters which you think relevant. I appreciate that you may not be able to give firm predictions or assessment much before the day. But we shall need to brief the Home Secretary in good time. I should therefore be very grateful to receive an initial assessment and accountupdated, by telephone if necessary, before  the following week-end. I am copying this letter to XXX. F4 DivisionE.R. RESTRICTED [Handwritten note]: Perhaps we should take this up in due course but it looks a little like scare-mongering for a purpose. XX 15/9 DEMONSTRATION IN LONDON 22 OCTOBER I have seen a copy of XXX note of 12 September to Mr XXX. I may be entirely wrong, but I just get the impression that the Metropolitan Police are more sanguine than we would like them to be about arresting people, and hence creating the possibility of them ending up in Prison Department custody. As I understand it, we explained very clearly to Thames Valley Police the difficulties the Prison Department would face if the various Greenham Common demonstrations led to a sudden large influx of female prisoners, and Thames Valley Police seem to have gone out of their way to keep arrests to the very minimum, at least partly with our difficulties in mind. I hope the Home Office will be equally robust over this aspect of the situation in its dealings with the Metropolitan Police. XXX 15 September 1983 P4 DivisionMr XXX I was this morning informed by Chief Inspector XXX, B11 Branch, Metropolitan Police, that information had been received that a very large demonstration was to take place in London on October 22nd 1983. CND was quickly mentioned. Miss XXX stated that, at this stage, the information was on a restricted basis; that there was an expectation of anything from between 500 - 1000 arrests; that they anticipated about 100 would be detained in custody. The point of her message was to request reduction in the number of prisoners in police cells by 100 by that time. We discussed the possibility of using the cells at ILCC, which are currently in use a dispersal point for prisoners brought daily from Lewes. The return of this function to B11 at Lambeth is prevented by the need to hold women prisoners there. I have little doubt that the Circuit Administrator will, as such a number of arrests would be termed an emergency, permit us to use these cells certified by Mr XXX to hold 50 - but previous proposals to do so have either proved unnecessary or foundered on the requirement for prison staff to man this area. I will be meeting with Chief XXX and possibly XXX on 13 September, and will try to ascertain more information. XXX is to inform  XXX this afternoon. P5 Division 12 September 1983RESTRICTED Mr Langdon I was this morning informed by Chief Inspector XXX, B11 Branch, Metropolitan Police, that information had been received that a very large demonstration was to take place in London on October 22nd 1983. CND was quickly mentioned. Miss Knott stated that, at this stage, the information was on a restricted basis; that there was an expectation of anything from between 500 - 1000 arrests; that they anticipated about 100 would be detained in custody. The point of her message was to request reduction in the number of prisoners in police cells by 100 by that time. We discussed the possibility of using the cells at ILCC, which are currently in use as a dispersal point for prisoners brought daily from Lewes. The return of this function to B11 at Lambeth is prevented by the need to hold women prisoners there. I have little doubt that the Circuit Administrator will, as such a number of arrests would be termed an emergency, permit us to use these cells - certified by Mr Gibson to hold 50 - but previous proposals to do so have either proved unnecessary or foundered an the requirement for prison staff to man this area.  I will be meeting with Chief XXX and possibly XXX on 13 September, and will try to ascertain more information. XXX is to inform XXX this afternoon. P5 Division 12 September 1983Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament 11 Goodwin Street - London N4 3HQ Tel: 01 - 263 0977 4 Lines) 19th September 1983. Dear XXX Re CND National Demonstration 22nd October 1983 I am writing to you as a matter of urgency to express grave concern over the absence of any final agreement on the two routes to be followed at the CND national demonstration on Saturday October 22nd. We confidently expect that a minimum of 150 thousand people will be attending and you will share our hope that the event will be one of peaceful and civilised demonstration on this serious and important issue. This can only be achieved, however, if there is close cooperation between ourselves and your officers and we therefore request an early meeting at a senior level to resolve the outstanding difficulties. It has been agreed that the two marches will assemble on Victoria Embankment and at the request of your officers and the Department of the Environment we will be marching to Hyde Park. In our latest proposals for the two routes we have attempted to retain some aspects of our original plans, submitted in June this year, which in the course of negotiations have been radically altered. This includes the use of Waterloo and Westminster Bridges, which has been accepted in principle by your officers and a march up Whitehall. It may assist you if we outline the main areas of disagreement, namely the route to be followed from Victoria Embankment to Belvedere Road via Waterloo Bridge on March One, and the route from Victoria Embankment to Trafalgar Square on March Two. Our proposal is that both marches assemble simultaneously alongside each other on Victoria Embankment and that both marches move off in the same direction. From outside Embankment tube station, March One would progress up Northumberland Avenue, right along Strand, right across Waterloo Bridge and into Belvedere Road. March Two would progress straight ahead towards Westminster Bridge, right into Bridge Street, right into Whitehall, up to Trafalgar Square and left into Pall Mall. The route for March One proposed by Commander Cree involves a complicated assembly procedure whereby this march either assembles and moves off, in the opposite direction to March Two, towards and across Blackfriars Bridge (where we have no desire to go), or assembles around the central islands at the East end of Victoria Embankment in such a way as to proceed up Temple Place, left into Surrey Street, left into Strand, left across Waterloo Bridge and into Belvedere Road, while March Two assembles around the central islands at the West end of the assembly area in order to proceed as originally outlined. Given the large numbers of peeple attempting to assemble in this area, both plans will undoubtably cause great confusion and distress and will impede the orderly progress of the march. We can proudly point to our experience of stewarding large crowds in London over the last three years, as your officers would confirm, butfirmly believe that these proposals would make it impossible to steward the assembly effectively, which we are certain you would agree is not consistent with ensuring an efficient, safe and peaceful demonstration. The route preposed by Commander Cree for March Two proceeds up Northumberland Avenue to Trafalgar Square and left into Pall Mall and involves the closure to traffic of Whitehall. Since the absence of traffic in Whitehall is acceptable we do not see why your officers are opposed to our proposal for March Two to proceed along Whitehall. We feel it would be wrong to deny us the freedom to march through the political centre of the Capital in the absence of overwhelming contrary reasons. In the course of negotiations we have cooperated in every way with you officers and have made significant alterations at their request. Indeed the entire form of the event has radically changed from our original proposals. We firmly believe that our present proposals are reasonable, more straightforward than those of your officers and altogether safer. We sincerely trust that the outstanding issues can be resolved at a further meeting particularly if such a meeting is conducted at a senior level on both sides. I propose that we attend a meeting with our elected representatives and prominent sponsors including members of Parliament and the Greater London Council. May I suggest that the Police be represented at such a meeting at Deputy Assistant Commissioner 1eve1 in order that decisions can be made without reference back to higher authority. I would be grateful if you would contact us as soon as possible with a view to arranging a meeting later this week. Yours sincerely, XXX CND Campaigns Unit. CC Secretary of State for Home Affairs Commander CreeER Note for the Record Use of Trafalgar Square on 22 October During the course of a meeting at the Home Office on 29 July, held to discuss this year's arrangements for the New Year's Eve celebrations in Trafalgar Square, the question of the use of the Square by CND on 22 October was also discussed. (Those present at the meeting were XXXX ) 2. The Secretary of State for the Environment had received an application from CND for use of the Square as a rallying and dispersal point following a march spanning five bridges across London which they were planning to hold on 22 October. They estimated an attendance of 200,000 and proposed to use Jubilee Gardens as a second dispersal point. 3. An application by XXX's Group, Women for Families and Defence, for use of the Square on the same day had been received shortly after that from CND. A further group, Coalition through Peace and Security, also planned to meet that day in Hyde Park. 4. XXX said that the police were concerned about using Trafalgar Square because of the numbers involved. He had suggested that Hyde Park might provide a more appropriate rallying point and CND were to consider this further. However, whatever was decided the demonstration would take place, and if the CND refused Hyde Park it would be better, in the interests of public order, to let them have use of Trafalgar Square. 5. XXX explained that CND had not yet made any application to use Hyde Park but there might be problems in view of their wish to collect money and play music. Collecting money was expressly forbidden in Hyde Park and they would need written permission to be allowed to play music. Department of the Environment Ministers were unlikely to be particularly sympathetic to such requests from CND. However a submission had been put to XXX suggesting that it was too early to reach any decision about the use of Trafalgar Square. Clearly if CNDagreed to Hyde Park, Lady Olga Maitland's Group could be allowed to use Trafalgar Square for their own demonstration. 6. XXX agreed that no conclusions could be reached about the public order implications until CND had considered the matter further and had given the police a firm undertaking of their intentions. F4 Division 4 August 1983E.R DEMONSTRATIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DEFENCE POLICY: SATURDAY, 22 OCTOBER 1983 The Home Secretary was grateful for your minute of 26 October and has noted the position. Private Secretary Private Office 27 . 10 . 83File Copy  Extract from the Official Report Thursday 27 October 1983 Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament March Sir Frederic Bennett asked the Secretary of State for the Home Department how many extra police officers were deployed to cover the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament march on Saturday 22 October. Mr. Hurd: A total of 4,195 officers were deployed to cover the CND demonstration and the other demonstra- tions about nuclear defence policy which were held in London on 22 October. Sir Frederic Bennett asked the Secretary of State for the Home Department how many police officers were taken off leave to cover the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament march on 22 October. Mr. Hurd: The Commissioner of Police of the Metropolis informs us that this information is not held centrally. Sir Frederic Bennett asked the Secretary of State for the Home Department what was the cost of policing the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament march on 22 October; and what contribution was made by those responsible for organising the event. Mr. Hurd: I am asking the Commissioner of Police of the Metropolis. When I have his answer I will write to my hon. Friend. Written answersE.R. from: F4 Division, 26, October 1983 DEMONSTRATIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DEFENCE POLICY SATURDAY 22 OCTOBER We have now had an opportunity to discuss Saturday's events with the Metropolitan police, and the Home Secretary may wish to be aware of some of the points that have arisen. 2. The police have confirmed that around 200,000 people took part in the CND march and rally, some three times more than the predicted minimum. In spite of the size of the demonstration and occasional attempts at disruption by a small group of 'anarchists', the event was largely peaceful. The police have spoken favourably of the high standard of stewarding by CND. 26 people were arrested, all belonged to the anarchist fringe and all were charged with minor offences such as obstruction and drunkenness. There were no real attempts to stage any form of non-violent direct action. 3. The rally and vigil in Trafalgar Square organised by Women for families and Defence was attended by about 150 people at any one time, and passed off without incident. The proposed rally in Hyde Park by the Coalition of Peace through Society did not take place. Protest by CPS was limited to the use of a siren and the broadcasting of speeches through a loudspeaker as the CND marchers passed their Whitehall offices. Although this gave rise to some complaints about noise there was no disorder. 4. The police were greatly surprised by the size of the CND demonstration. The disparity between their estimated figure of 50,000 to 70,000 and the actual turn-out of 200,000 is a matter of concern for both the police and the Home Office and the police have been working again at their procedures. They were satisfied that one component of the estimate, the numbers travelling to the event by specially arranged trains and coaches, was largely accurate. They admit, however, that they seriously underestimated the number of people making their own way to the demonstration and the degree of support from within London itself and the Home Counties. There appear to be a number of factors which accounted for this:ER. i) provincial special branches had reported that in many areas of the country support for the event appeared luke-warm, and that the organisers were unable to fill a number of the special coaches; ii) less than 100,000 people had attended last year's demonstration and during the past twelve months the turnnout at almost every 'peace' event had, for the organisers, been disappointingly low. The evidence and intelligence available to the police suggested that support for CND was on the wane; iii) on the day, against all expectations, representation from a number of groups, including some of the smaller provincial areas, together with Christian and other religious organisations was unusually large; iv) traffic on the London underground was excessively heavy during the day and it seems that the number of people from the capital joining the demonstration, some perhaps on the spur of the moment, was far greater than had been predicted. The fine, sunny weather must have also played a part in encouraging those within easy reach of London to attend; v) CND is able to draw on loosely based support from people who are unconnected with the organisation but who may share at least some of its aims. The police have commented on the large numbers of families with children who took part in the march and on the unusually high representation of older people. The police believe that people such as these, who would be unlikely to demonstrate for any other cause, formed a large part of Saturday's demonstration. As Saturday's numbers show, this is the type of support, which by its very nature, is most difficult for the police to predict. 5. The main conclusion we can draw is that whilst there may not have been a failure in intelligence, there was certainly a failure of judgement on the part of the police in their underestimation of the appeal that a demonstration such as this by CND would still have for many members of the public. For their defence, the police have pointed out that CND themselves were privately surprised at the turn out. Nevertheless their failure on this occasion has caused the Metropolitan Police some embarassment and there is little doubt that they will, in future, be taking a much closer look at their assessments of CND support.The Coalition for Peace Through Security made speeches a patriotic music to the marchers through loudspeakers. displayed anti-CND slogans on tethered balloon and banners above Whitehall. No problems arose. The 'Women and Families for Defence' Organisation held a in Trafalgar Square between 2.00 pm and 7.30 pm. About people attended and there was no disorder. Police, assisted by CND stewards, dealt with some 18 children had become separated from parents and received reports of missing persons. Twenty six people were arrested, six for assaulting police officers the remainder for obstructing police and threat behaviour. Whilst the marches clearly had an effect upon Central London commitment and professionalism of organisers, the effort stewards, diligence and patience of police officers combined produce an orderly and even good natured demonstration. Information in accordance with General Orders Section 49 Paragraph 95 is as follows 1. See above. ii. 4195 Various times as from 7.00 am with general di by 6.30 pm. 686 Reserve officers (included in total at ii). Numerous deployments. iv. Not drawn or used. v. 26. vi. a. 9 slight b. 2 slight c. 3 slightFrom G.D. McLean QPM, Deputy Assistant Commissioner 'A' (Ops) NEW SCOTLAND YARD BROADWAY, LONDON, SW1H 0BG 25th October 1983 XXX Esq Home Office Queen Annes Gate LONDON SW1H 9AT Dear XXX CND MARCH AND RALLY 22ND OCTOBER 1983 On Saturday 22nd October 1983, a march and rally were organised by the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. Initial estimates suggest that some 150,000 supporters marched from Victoria Embankment and that the subsequent meeting at Hyde Park attracted a total of 200,000 people. The main assembly began at 10.00 am, the demonstrators forming up at Victoria Embankment to the north of Embankment LTE Station. With the exception of 'feeder' marches from local London Boroughs, such as Camden and Lambeth, those taking part arrived by public transport many having travelled to London by privately hired coaches or trains. Shortly before midday the demonstrators moved off using two previously agreed routes described in correspondence forwarded to you on 12th October. Such was the pressure of the numbers marching that minor changes were made to the route. These were implemented without difficulty. All marchers reached Hyde Park by 5.30 pm. During the course of the afternoon a rally was at Hyde Park. Demonstrators were addressed by, among others, XXX MP, and XXX. The march and rally were generally orderly and almost festive in character. The exception to the general standard was a group of some 300 young self~styled anarchists, whose behaviour during the march caused stewarding problems and brought them to the attention of police. This group initially disrupted the rally, heckled and attacked police officers. Perhaps understandably, the young anarchists accounted for the greater proportion of arrests. Counter demonstrations were organised by the 'Coalition for Peace Through Security' at their offices 27-31, Whitehall, SW1 and 'Women and Families for Defence' at Trafalgar Square.