RESIDENTIAL FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN MAINE MEREDA’S 2016 ANNUAL FORECAST CONFERENCE David Marsden Lifestyle & Investment davidm@marsdenrealestate.com Direct: 207.329.6997 Email: A LOOK BACK 2015 IN REVIEW MARKET TRENDS PREDICTIONS FOR 2016 BEYC Welcome Overview MEDIAN SALE PRICE NUMBER OF SALES MEDIAN DAYS ON MARKET OTHER FACTORS 2015 in Review MEDIAN  S ALES  PRICE    M AINE   2011-­‐2015 2015 200 200 $150K $154K $159K $159K $165K 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2015 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC $147,000 Median Sales Price Maine $171,500 $166,450 MEDIAN  SALES  P RICE    CUMBERLAND  C OUNTY 2011-­‐2015 250 $215K $213.5K $226K $235K 2015 $238K 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2015 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC $204,500 Median Sales Price Cumberland County $250,000 $235,250 NUMBER  O F  SALES    MAINE   2011-­‐2015 18,433 20,000 19,703 21,709 16,277 15,000 2015 3,000 2,500 13,909 2,000 10,000 1,500 1,000 5,000 500 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1,130 Number of Sales Maine 2,456 1,765 NUMBER  OF  SALES    CUMBERLAND  COUNTY 2011-­‐2015 2015 7,000 800 6,000 4,818 5,000 4,000 5,133 5,786 700 600 4,183 500 3,496 400 3,000 300 2,000 200 1,000 100 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 263 Number of Sales Cumberland County 652 490 MEDIAN  D AYS  O N  MARKET  M AINE   2011-­‐2015 2015 120 100 120 99 98 83 100 82 80 71 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 112 Median Days on the Market Maine 41 80 MEDIAN  DAYS  O N  MARKET    CUMBERLAND  COUNTY 2011-­‐2015 80 2015 76 70 80 70 62 60 60 48 50 48 40 50 33 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 70 19 Median Days on the Market Cumberland County 43 MEDIAN  SALES  PRICE    LOCAL  MARKET  2015 $468,500 $500,000 $450,000 $400,000 $373,450 $350,000 $352,500 $350,000 $307,000 $300,000 $250,000 $250,000 $346,750 $225,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 CAPE  ELIZABETH CUMBERLAND FALMOUTH FREEPORT PORTLAND Median Sale Price Local Market 2015 SCARBOROUGH SOUTH  PORTLAND YARMOUTH WEATH ER I INVENTO 2015 in Review Other Factors § § § WEATHER WEATHER INVENTORY INVENTORY SHORT  TERM   PRICE  INCREASE MULTIPLE OFFERS SHORT TERM PRICE INCREASE 2015 in Review Weather, Demand & Inventory TRID Greater Transparency 3 Day Disclosure Results > 45-60 Day Close RATES Geopolitical & Economic Events NAR Predicts Rates will Increase to 4.8% 2015 in Review TRID & Rates BABY BOOMERS (1946-1965) GEN-XERS (1966-1980) MILLENNIALS (1981-1995) TINY HOMES Market Trends Everyday between now and 2029, approx.10,000 will retire Moving toward urban amenities More active, mobile, need room for visitors Market Trends Baby Boomers Born in 1966 -1980 Half the size of Baby Boomers & Millennial generation Can’t fill the gap! Market Trends Gen-Xers MARKET  TRENDS    M ILLENNIALS § STUDENT  L OAN  DEBT § SLOW  ENTRANCE  O NTO   CAREER   L ADDER Slow entrance onto career ladder Student loan debt § GETTING  M ARRIED  L ATER § NEW  OPPORTUNITIES  I N   MULTI-­‐GENERATIONAL  HOMES New opportunities in § Getting married later multi-generational homes DELAYED   A FFLUENCE   ( 2026-­‐2029) Delayed affluence (2026-2029) Market Trends Millennials ADULTS  LIVING  WITH  PARENTS  BY  AGE 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 25 30 35 1980 40 1990 45 50 2000 55 60 2007 65 2013 70 75 Millennials & Gen-Xers Boomer McMansions Environmentally & financially responsible Mobility Market Trends Tiny Homes Slow rise in median price Interest rates rise slightly Smaller, more efficient homes Luxury market slowly declines Multi-generational housing Increased demand for urban in-fill & sustainable living 2016 Predictions Residential THANK YOU David Marsden Lifestyle & Investment davidm@marsdenrealestate.com Direct: 207.329.6997 Email: We’re Bringing People Home in TM Greater Portland