TO: Gen. Myers FROM: Donald Rumsfeld SUBJECT: WMD Please take a look at this material as to what we don?t know about WMD. It is big. Thanks. Attach. 09/05/02 1-2 memo to SecDef, ?Status of Iraqi WMD Programs? 090902-26 Please respond by DEGLASSIFEED EN FULEE ?gthfar?ty: 5013525 :6 agents 8; Deeiass my? Date; JAN 0 5; 207? xo1eas 703 . SECDEF WOW (ZN-MA 51% <25 TO: CJCS Director for Intelligence (1L2) Washington, DC. 20318-2901)? ACJCS DJS SUBJECT: Status of Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) Programs Sir, a couple of weeks ago SECDEF asked me what we don?t know (in a percentage) about the Iraqi WMD program. We?ve struggled to estimate the unknowns, and the attached brie?ng sums up our best 12 sense. We range from 0% to about 75% knowledge on various aspects of their program. I?d be happy to discuss further if you wish. cc: J3 IS DDI \rr GLEN D. SHAFFE Major General, USAF Director for Intelligence, J2 tit Hm ?ftitnpr?ty: 135% l3, scamsng class sate: MW 5 5 3 ii ?4 . a? flak. ?0 EESEAESEHEE EEG FEM ?ui?mg??y: 3.3525 Cami Rewms 3g ?eda?s my; we: JAN (5 my 71432001 5 Sep 02 IRA Q: STA TUS 0F WMD PROGRAMS - We assess Iraq is making significant progress in WMD programs 0 Our assessments rely heavily on analytic assumptions and judgment rather than hard evidence - The evidentiary base is particularly sparse for Iraqi nuclear programs - Concerted Iraqi have effectively negated our view into large parts of their WMD program We don ?t know with any precision how much we don?t know $13525 Ci?aiei Ream 71432002 I 53%: 32 ?eeiass my; Wi?g 5 Sep 02 2g; IRAQ: NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM - We know Iraq has the knowledge needed to build a nuclear weapon without external expertise. - We are certain many of the processes required to produce a weapon are in place We think they possess a viable weapon design We do not know the status of enrichment capabilities We think a centrifuge enrichment program is under development but not yet operational - We do not know if they have purchased, or attempted to purchase, a nuclear weapon - We do not know with confidence the location of any nuclear weapon-related facilities Our knowledge of the Iraqi nuclear weapons program is based largely perhaps 90% -- on analysis of imprecise-intelligence 71 432002 :assess as rem 335% Sinai? Eases-?g El Beelass an? WM m: MN 9 2m IRA Q.- BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM - We know Iraq has the knowledge needed to build biological weapons without external expertise - We are certain all of the processes required to produce biological weapons are in place We know they have produced anthrax, ricin toxin, botulinum toxin and gas gangrene - We cannot confirm the identity of any Iraqi facilities that produce, test, fill, or store biological weapons A large number of suspect facilities have been identified that could support R&Dlproduction We believe lrag has 7 mobile BW agent production plants but cannot locate them Our knowledge of what biological weapons the Iraqis are able to produce is nearly knowledge of how. and where they are produced is probably up to 90% incomplete 71 432003 5 Sep 02 messaging Elm ?laments: 335% Wei? Ramses 3s, ?asiass his; till-ES sate: Mil ii Z?ii IRA Q: CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM - We know Iraq has the knowledge needed to build chemical weapons without external expertise - We do not know if all the processes required to produce a weapon are in place Demonstrated capability to produce mustard nerve agents Lack the precursors for sustained nerve agent production - We can confirm the identity of facilities producing feedstock chemicals suitable for CW precursors - We cannot confirm the identity of any Iraqi sites that produce final chemical agent Our overall knowledge of the Iragi CW rogram is primarily limited to infrastructure doctrine. speci?c agent and facility knowledge is 60- 70 percent incomplete. 71432004 5 Sep 02 Eli Film. Minority: 3.3525 Wei, Regards 3: assess an? WiiS Rae; jaw ii 2W IRA Q: BA LLIS TIC MISSILE PROGRAMS - We know Iraq has the knowledge needed to build ballistic missiles without external expertise - We are certain many of the processes required to produce ballistic missiles are in place We know they can produce short range ballistic missiles (Al Samoud and Ababil-100) -- We doubt all processes are in place to produce longer range missiles 0 We can confirm the identity of most facilities that contribute to ballistic missile production or - We have good information on general storage at production/assembly sites, but little missile-specific data Our knowledge of the-Iraqi ballistic missile program is about half complete for the production process but signi?cantly 71 lacking -- less than 25 percent - for staging and storage sites .15" are BESQSESEHES Wit gammy: as 3:35:26 gage: sesame 3g Beelass Bis? W3 13 33%: DECLASSIFIED IN PART 71432007 Authority: ED 13526 5 Sep 02 Chief, Records Declass Div, WHS Date: JAN ESP 2m