Energy & Environmental Implications of a Diablo Canyon Closure Research & analysis by Michael Shellenberger (michaelshellenberger@gmail.com) for SaveDiabloCanyon.org January 29, 2016 California Emissions Overview US Energy Information Administration data Includes emissions from in-state electricity only Absolute Change in California vs average US state CO2 emissions,1990 - 2013 vs. 2000 - 2013 (in-state only) 10 5 -5 -105 -24 Million Metric Tons -20 -50 -80 -110 Absolute 1990-2013 US Average Absolute 2000-2013 California Source: US Energy Information Agency, “State Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” October 2015 Percent Change in CO2 emissions 1990-2013 (in-state only) 50 49.4 37.5 Million Metric Tons 25 12.5 5.1 0 -2.8 -36.4 -12.5 -25 -37.5 -50 Arizona United States California District of Columbia Source: US Energy Information Agency, “State Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” October 2015 Percent Change in CO2 emissions 2000-2013 (In-state only) 10 9.1 6.6 Million Metric Tons 0 -7.5 -9.6 -34.9 -10 -20 -30 -40 Arizona Arkansas California United States District of Columbia Source: US Energy Information Agency, “State Carbon Dioxide Emissions,” October 2015 California Emissions California Almanac (state) data Includes emissions from both in-state electricity and out-of-state electricity California Emissions Fell 2% Between 2000-2013… 520 Million Tons CO2-eq 390 260 130 0 2000 2013 Source: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory,” California Air Resources Board, 2015 California Emissions Rose 8.8% between 1990-2013 520 Million Tons CO2-eq 390 260 130 0 1990 2000 2013 Source: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory,” California Air Resources Board, 2015 California actual emissions & 2020 target 500 495 480 485483486 493 488486 490 Average 469 460 462 461459 456455 440 431 420 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 CO2 data from 2014 isn’t yet available but emissions were likely flat or higher in 2014 given energy trends GWh of Electricity produced from clean energy 130000 97500 65000 32500 0 2011 2012 In-state 2013 Total 2014 CA Air Resources Board predicts emissions will fall 4x faster from 2016 - 20 than 2000-13 1 Million Tons CO2-eq -0.5 -1 -4 -2 -3.5 -5 MMT Annual change actual, 2000-13 Annual change predicted (CARB), 2013-20 Source: “Greenhouse Gas Inventory,” California Air Resources Board, 2015 California actual emissions & 2030 target 500 495 493 485483486 488486 490 469 462456455461459 431 406.25 312.5 218.75 172 125 30 20 28 20 26 20 24 20 22 20 20 20 18 20 16 20 14 20 12 20 10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 California Energy Overview Diablo produces 2x more electricity as all of California’s solar panels 18000 GWh 13500 9000 4500 0 2014 Diablo Canyon All Solar Panels in California California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Generation, by percent, 2014 70 Percent of In-State Generation 61.3 52.5 35 17.5 8.6 7.1 0 Natural Gas Biomass 6.5 6.1 4.5 3.4 1.2 0.8 0.5 2014 Nuclear Small Hydro Large Hydro Solar Thermal Wind Coal Geothermal Solar PV California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California Clean Electricity, by percent, 2014 9 Percent of In-State Generation 8.6 6.75 7.1 6.5 6.1 4.5 4.5 3.4 2.25 1.2 0 Nuclear Small Hydro 0.8 2014 Large Hydro Solar Thermal Wind Geothermal Solar PV Biomass California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California clean electricity (in-state & total) 130000 GWh 97500 65000 32500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In-state Total California Clean electricity in?state 2014 In?state California clean electricity as percent of total 60 45 48 50 49 45 53 48 41 40 39 42 45 38 34 30 42 38 33 39 35 38 34 15 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 In-state Total California In-State Electricity, 2001 - 2014 220000 GWh 165000 110000 55000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Wind Large Hydro Geothermal Biomass Small Hydro Solar Thermal Solar PV “In-State Other California Almanac, Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California Clean Electricity In-State Generation, 2001 - 2014 220000 165000 110000 55000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nuclear Solar Thermal Large Hydro Solar PV Geothermal Biomass Small Hydro Wind California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Hydro, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Large Hydro California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Nuclear, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nuclear California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Geothermal, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Geothermal California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Small Hydro, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Small Hydro California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Solar Thermal, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Solar Thermal California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html California In-State Solar PV, 2001 - 2014 110000 82500 55000 27500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Solar PV California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Environmental Consequences of iablo Closure Replacing Diablo with Natural Gas Would Be Equivalent of Adding ~2 Million Cars to the Road 2500000 1,988,346 1250000 0 Number Source: EIA carbon emissions from natural gas; California (State Government Energy) Almanac, 2016 If Diablo closes, 22% of California’s clean electricity would be lost 80000 17,027 60000 40000 20000 0 Solar Thermal Large Hydro 14,052 14,052 12,997 12,997 12,183 12,183 6,672 8,933 2,426 1,624 6,672 8,933 2,426 1,624 2014 2014 without Diablo Canyon Small Hydro Nuclear Solar PV Biomass Geothermal Wind California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html San Onfore closure reduced clean electricity by 50%, drought reduced it by 36%, 2011-2012 90000 GWh Electricity Generation 36,666 67500 50% decline 45000 42,731 18,491 36% decline 27,467 22500 0 2011 Hydro 2012 Nuclear California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Replacing Diablo Closure with natural gas would cut clean electricity to 30% & increase natural gas to 70% 70 Percent of Electricity Generation in-state 70 58 61 61 61 38 39 38 53 45 45 33 30 20 2011 2012 Natural Gas 2013 2014 2014 w/o Diablo Canyon Clean Energy Source: California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Diablo Canyon produced 41 times more electricity than Ivanpah, California’s largest solar plant 18000 13500 9000 4500 0 2014 Diablo Canyon Ivanpah California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Diablo Canyon produced 24% percent more electricity than all of California’s wind, and 33% more than all of its solar 18000 GWh 13500 9000 4500 0 2014 Diablo Canyon Wind Solar California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Carbon equivalent of 2.1 million cars added to road after San Onofre nuclear plant was replaced by natural gas 2500000 2,100,059 1250000 0 Number Source: California Almanac. In 2011, San Onofre Generating Station 18,175,000,000 KWh of power. It was replaced by natural gas, which according to US EIA generates 1.2 pounds of CO2 per KWh, or 9,975,282 metric tons of CO2. Average US vehicle emits 4.7 metric tons of CO2 per year. 9,975,282 divided by 4.7 = 2,100,059 cars Hydro-electricity fluctuates significantly 25 9.5% decline* 2006-7 7.5% decline 2011-2 18.75 12.5 6.25 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Total Hydro *of total elect. gen. California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Natural Gas Substitutes for Hydro & Nuclear 70 52.5 35 17.5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Nuclear Total Hydro Natural Gas California Almanac, “In-State Generation by Fuel Type” http://energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/electric_generation_capacity.html Economic Consequences California has 6th most expensive retail (all sectors) electricity in continental United States 16 15.64 KWh 13.25 10.5 10.50 7.75 5 2015 California National Average Source: US EIA, All in Year-to-date, Electric Power Monthly, 2011-2015 Cheap natural gas has masked significant electricity cost increases from deploying (non-large hydro) renewables 18" 8" 16" 7" 14" 6" 12" 5" 10" 4" 8" 3" 6" 2" 4" 2" 1" 0" 0" 2006" 2007" 2008" 2009" 2010" California"electricity"price"(cents/KWh)" 2011" 2012" 2013" 2014" 2015" Natural"gas"price"(dollars/Btu)" Source: US Energy Information Administration, Natural Gas Prices Predicted to Double by 2025 Figure ESZ. Average Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas in four cases, 2005-40 (2013 dollars per million Btu) 12 History 2013 Projections High Oil Price 9 Reference 6 Low Oil Price 3 High Oil and Gas Resource 0 I I I I I 2005 2013 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 on Annual Energy Outlook 2015 Source: US Energy Information Administration, Ivanpah produced 60% less electricity than was expected and planned 1100 GWh 825 550 275 0 Expected/Planned Actual 2014 Sources: Expected: NREL, “Concentrating Solar Power Projects,” http://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/project_detail.cfm/projectID=62 
 Actual: California Almanac, “Annual Generation Plant,” http:// energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/web_qfer/Annual_GenerationPlant_Unit.php 20% of Ivanpah’s power was produced with natural gas — 4x more than State allows for projects to count as renewable 450 84 337.5 GWh 334 225 112.5 0 Solar Electricity 2014 Natural Gas Electricity Sources: California Almanac, “Annual Generation Plant,” http:// energyalmanac.ca.gov/electricity/web_qfer/Annual_Generation-Plant_Unit.php US Subsidizes Solar & Wind 140x & 17x more than Nuclear Subsidy per Megawatt-hour in 2013 US Dollars 40 280 35 30 20 10 0 11 1 1 2 2 Coal Hydro Nuclear Oil & Nat Gas Biomass Wind Solar Source: US EIA Data http://www.eia.gov/analysis/requests/subsidy/