ELECTION 2016 Iowa New Hampshire Guide Table of Contents FUN FACTS FOR ON-AIR, ONLINE VAMPING 3 OVERVIEW 5 Themes of the Election, Mara Liasson 6 So, you want to know how this whole thing works? 8 Turnout 13 Ad spending 14 IOWA 16 Key Facts and Figures 17 Race Overview 18 How the caucuses work 20 TRAVEL 23 Iowa At-A-Glance 24 Caucus Facts 25 Caucus Results 1972-2012 – Democrats 26 Caucus Results 1972-2012 – Republicans 27 General Election Results 1968-2012 28 NEW HAMPSHIRE 30 Key Facts and Figures 31 Race Overview 32 How the New Hampshire Primary works 34 Travel 36 New Hampshire At-A-Glance 37 Primary facts 38 Primary Results 1952-2012 – Democrats 39 Primary Results 1952-2012 – Republicans 40 General Election Results 1968-2012 41 Fun Facts for On-Air and Online Vamping • The word “caucus” is thought to • Since 1976, just one person • a much better NPR B RIE FING B O O K on the Republican side has predictor on the Democratic word – cau´-cau-as´u, meaning won Iowa and gone on to be side – six of the last eight “one president – George W. Bush. Democratic who advises, urges, give counsel, advise, encourage, • Bill Clinton, George Bush action.” all lost Iowa but went on and Ronald win the won the state since 1976. Two H.W. and to urge, promote, incite to Reagan became president – Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter. presidency. Donald Trump has already won a presidential primary – the nominees, including the last three, have to • The most to ever turn out in Only one person in the last the Democratic caucuses in Reform Party California primary 40 years has lost both Iowa Iowa was 240,000 in 2008, in 2000. He withdrew from the and New Hampshire and gone nearly race months before but still on presidency high. For Republicans, 2012 received 44 percent of the total the same year – Bill Clinton. was a record of about 122,000. • to win the vote (15,311 votes). double the previous That could be broken this year. • • is come from an Algonquin Indian encourages” and “to talk to … • Iowa Bill Clinton didn’t win either For Republicans, there hasn’t Iowa or New Hampshire in 1992, been a brokered convention, but was still declared “The caucuses where the nominee was not Comeback Kid” after his second- discovered that Rick Santorum known after the first round of place finish in New Hampshire.1 won 34 more votes than Mitt balloting at the convention, • Two weeks Romney. The person who led after 2012, Iowa’s the Iowa it was Republican the Party chairman, though, was GOP rules changes and a multi- longest in Iowa in the crowded unable to declare an official candidate field make that at Republican field in 2015 was… winner because results from least a possibility this year. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. eight of nearly 1,800 precincts He led for six months, from could in almost 70 years (1948). But • in not be located.3 February to August, before dropping out of the race after a series of missteps.2 4 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E • When Bernie Sanders was elected to Congress in 1992, he was the first independent to win a congressional seat in 40 years.4 What’s in a name? Several candidates are using nicknames or middle names. FOR EXAMPLE: • In anticipation of their husbands’ presidential campaign, both Mary Pat Christie and Heidi Cruz left their lucrative jobs. • Carly Fiorina was actually born Cara Carleton Sneed. • Ted Cruz was named after his father, Raphael, but used the nickname Ted growing up. • Jeb Bush’s name is an acronym – a shorter version of his full name, John Ellis Bush. He was named after two of his uncles. Mrs. Christie left her $500,000-a-year job as a managing director at company • a and hedge Mrs. fund Cruz and left her investment job at management Goldman Sachs. Janet Huckabee is one of two presidential-candidate spouses to have run for office. The other? Another Arkansan: Bill Clinton. (Janet Huckabee ran for Arkansas Secretary of State.) • 5 Both Martin O’Malley and Mike Huckabee play in bands. Huckabee formed a band with members of his staff in 1996, called “Capitol Offense.” He took his band on the campaign trail in 2007, playing band “O’Malley’s March”. He plays the guitar, banjo and sings. • Iowa in the they • wound 1970s, needed up it the first because took time so to when long to let their the pick process began delegates process play that out. SOME PRESIDENTS ALSO USED NICKNAMES OR MIDDLE NAMES: • Ulysses S. Grant was born Hiram Ulysses Grant (the S didn’t stand for anything) • Woodrow Wilson’s full name was Thomas Woodrow Wilson. • Calvin Coolidge’s given name was John Calvin Coolidge. • Gerald Ford was born Leslie Lynch King Jr., the name of his biological father. At the age of 2, he was adopted by Gerald Rutherford Ford Sr. and was renamed. • Bill Clinton was originally named William Jefferson Blythe III after his biological father. His dad passed away, and he took the name of his mother’s second husband, Roger Clinton. There was a Clinton or a Bush on every presidential ticket from 1980 to 2004. 6 https://archives.nbclearn.com/portal/site/k-12/flatview?cuecard=4931 1 2 http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/insidefall-scott-walker-why-did-gop-star-burn-out-n431311 3 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/states/ iowa 4 https://berniesanders.com/about/ http://www.bustle.com/articles/81002-mike-huckabees-wife-janet-huckabee-is-a-fascinating-womanwho-once-ran-for-office-herself 5 https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2014/10/28/clinton-bush-race-again/PKMQco3SoHFBsKn6yCqOEM/story.html 6 http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/06/24/ do-you-know-which-of-the-2016-gop-candidates-arent-using-their-given-names-its-probably-more-thanyou-think/ 7 IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E NPR B RIE FING B O O K throughout Iowa. O’Malley is the frontman of the Celtic rock 5 OVERVIE W By Mara Liasson Overview NPR B RIE FING B O O K 6 Welcome to 2016! The next few months are going to be among the most exhilarating, determinative and confusing of this presidential campaign, what with talk of delegate allocation and the like. We try to clear up that confusion in what follows – a guide to the primaries with an emphasis on the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire. But first – following President Obama’s presidency, there are a record number of candidates running on the Republican side. There’s also a competitive Democratic race. With that complex dynamic, it can be hard to sort out the big themes. Who better to set the table for this election than NPR’s Mara Liasson? IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E OVERVIEW 1. VOTER MOOD On the Republican side, voters are angry at politicians, the media, President Obama and their own congressional leaders, who, despite having control of both houses of Congress, seem to be unable to stop Obama’s agenda. For months, about half of Republican voters have supported Donald Trump and Ben Carson — the two “outsider” candidates with no political experience. And Republican voters consistently say they prefer a nominee with no experience inside the system. And they tell pollsters they’d rather have a candidate who sticks to his principles rather than compromises to “get something done.” Democrats are also angry — at Wall Street, at billionaires and at an economic system that seems rigged against ordinary people. But Democrats tell pollsters they’d rather have a candidate who is willing to compromise. So, although voter anger is bipartisan — and there’s a lot of overlap in its targets — it comes in two slightly different flavors this year. IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 4. OBAMA’S APPROVAL RATING Elections are always about something. And next year’s election will be, at least in part, about real incomes and economic mobility. Call it middle-class stagnation or middle-class squeeze — this is the problem that the two parties will say they can solve. Democrats want to raise the minimum wage, make college debt free — or tuition free! — invest in infrastructure and expand Obamacare. Republicans want to cut taxes and regulations, increase school choice and replace Obamacare. This substantive debate has yet to be fully joined, but bits and pieces of it are out there now. Next year’s winner will have presented the more compelling answer to the question: How can I maintain a middle-class lifestyle and be sure my kids will have a chance to do better than me? Another leading political indicator is the president’s popularity. In the modern era, only one man — George H.W. Bush — has managed to succeed a two-term president of his own party. After eight years, Americans usually want a change. President Obama has said voters want that “new-car smell.” The two presidents who have seen their chosen successor win the popular vote – Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton – had approval ratings close to 60 percent. The others were all under 45 percent. Right now, Obama is hovering in the mid-tohigh 40s. The exact tipping point is not clear, but Democrats would certainly prefer Obama’s approval rating to be over 50 percent, or close to it, next year. 3. THE ECONOMY The economy is one of the most important political fundamentals. Wage growth and the jobless rate will help determine which party ends up in the White House. Though this recovery has had many positives, it has been long, and it’s not being felt strongly. Wages have only recently begun to tick up. If that trend continues, it will be easier for President Obama’s party to hang on to the White House. If the recovery sputters, as it’s done so many times before, Republicans will have an edge. 5. DEMOGRAPHICS Democrats have had the edge in the Electoral College in five of the last six presidential elections. The Obama coalition — younger, browner, more single, more secular, more female — might stay home in midterm elections (to Democrats’ dismay), but they have turned out in presidential years – at least for Obama. This is the part of the electorate that’s growing, but a key in this election is going to be whether this coalition that has turned out for Obama is a Democratic coalition, or just an Obama one. Plus, if Republicans nominate someone who can appeal to Hispanics (say Marco Rubio), and/or put forward a Florida-Ohio ticket, the election could be extremely competitive and very, very close. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Boy, are voters angry. They’re anxious, fed up and disgusted. For more than 20 years, middle-class incomes have stagnated; there’s been a prolonged period of political gridlock in Washington; voters look abroad and see a world on fire, with the planet’s sole superpower seemingly powerless to do anything about it except get involved in endless, futile wars. All that is a recipe for political volatility. Since 2000, every election except 2012 has been a “change” election; that is, either the White House or one house of Congress has changed party control. Voters want change. They keep voting for it, but they don’t seem to get what they want exactly. 2. THE MIDDLE-CLASS S7UEEZE   7 OVERVIE W By Domenico Montanaro So, You Want To Know How This Whole Thing Works? NPR B RIE FING B O O K 8 Iowa and New Hampshire run things very differently. They both take pride in being “first,” but for Iowa (Feb. 1), that means a caucus; for New Hampshire (Feb. 9), it’s a primary. What’s the difference? It basically boils down to formality. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E OVERVIEW SOUND SMART FACT WHAT IS A PRIMARY? It’s essentially a gathering of likeminded, politically active people, a neighborhood meeting of sorts. Unlike regular voting, which only takes a few minutes, people have to devote a significant portion of their evenings to the process in a caucus. That can be a barrier for some. They meet in gymnasiums or libraries or living rooms, and everything is out in the open. Candidate representatives and caucusgoers argue for their candidates and try to sway their neighbors. This is why ardency of support is important. (There’s more on how caucuses work in our Iowa section, starting on p.22.) People go to their normal polling places and vote. The polls are open for most of the day from the morning into some evening hours. WHO CAN VOTE? You have to register with that party in order to caucus. You can do so that night if you’re not already registered. That same day registration, in addition to the complicated caucusing process, can be a hurdle to participation. It winds up drawing more activists than generally interested voters. IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E WHO CAN VOTE? You don’t have to register with a party, but you can only vote in one primary. That’s important, because more than 40 percent of New Hampshire voters are independent or undeclared. With all those fiercely independent voters and, because the primary process in New Hampshire doesn’t require as much time and effort as the caucuses in Iowa, more moderate or “establishment” candidates typically win New Hampshire. Depending on the excitement of the races or who they’re more drawn to, New Hampshire undeclared voters can tip the balance in either primary. It’s why people from New Hampshire like to say they “pick presidents” while Iowa picks “corn.” NPR B RIE FING B O O K WHAT IS A CAUCUS? Bill Clinton was declared the “Comeback Kid” in New Hampshire in 1992, but he didn’t win. He finished second to Paul Tsongas. He’s the only person, in either party, in the last 40 years to lose both Iowa and New Hampshire and still become president. 9 OVERVIE W But who’s got the better track record? REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS New Hampshire has been better at picking nominees. Since 1976, five eventual nominees won New Hampshire. Two became president – Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush. Three eventual GOP nominees won Iowa, but just one became president – George W. Bush. Here’s the thing, though: No Republican has become the nominee in the last 40 years without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa has been slightly better than New Hampshire at picking nominees. A whopping six eventual nominees have won Iowa since 1976. That includes the last three. Two Iowa Democratic winners have become president – Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama. New Hampshire has picked five nominees over that same time. Just one became president – Carter. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Credit: Meg Kelly/NPR 10 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E OVERVIEW SOUND SMART FACT Is a brokered convention a real possibility? There hasn’t been a “contested” convention, where the nominee wasn’t finalized going in for 40 years, and there hasn’t been a “brokered” one, when the nominee wasn’t settled after the first round of balloting at the convention for almost 70. But because of how Republicans changed the rules from 2012, and the possibility of a multi-candidate race, a contested convention is at least more possible than it was four years ago. There was another wrinkle beyond slow and incomplete reporting in 2012. Because of the way delegates were selected, the person who got the most votes did not get the most delegates. The person who did get the most delegates? Ron Paul, with a whopping 22 of the state’s 27 delegates. Romney wound up with 5, Santorum – 0. How’d that happen? Like Democrats, Republicans used to not tie their delegates to vote results – and they were not selected on caucus IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E But, in trying to prevent one kind of insurgent, the party may have empowered another – Donald Trump. Given that the early state delegates he wins are bound to vote for him at the national convention next summer, even if Trump doesn’t win the nomination, he could wind up with leverage. Imagine a scenario in which Trump does well enough in Iowa and New Hampshire and winds up with momentum into Super Tuesday, March 1, which is chock full of Southern states. If multiple candidates (at least three) split the vote during the primaries and caucuses, Trump could potentially walk into the convention with a quarter to a third (or more) of the delegates in his pocket for whatever he wants to trade them for. (A candidate needs a majority of delegates to be the nominee, 1,236.) There are a lot of “ifs,” of course, in all of this. A lot of things have to line up just right for this scenario to play out, which is why a contested convention hasn’t happened since 1976. Back then, neither incumbent President Gerald Ford nor Ronald Reagan quite had a majority delegates heading into the convention – though Ford led. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Republicans had a messy Iowa race in 2012. Rick Santorum ultimately finished ahead of Mitt Romney by just 34 votes. But the result wasn’t clear on Election Night. Romney was seen as the narrow winner on Election Night, and it wasn’t known for two weeks that Santorum actually finished ahead. The party never officially certified a winner, because some precincts never reported their vote total. Because of that, the party has partnered with Microsoft for what’s intended to be real-time electronic reporting. night. They were picked at district, county and state conventions weeks and months later. In other words, delegates could vote for whomever they wanted, and only one candidate’s representatives stuck it out through the whole selection processes – Paul. The quirky Texas congressman’s band of activists were so good at gaming the system, they wound up taking over the Iowa GOP. It gave Iowa activists and the RNC fits. To prevent another candidate from doing the same thing (perhaps one from the same family), the RNC changed the rules. Now, delegates in every state before March 15th are bound and allocated proportionally according to the vote on Election Night. The RNC changed the rules this year to require that the nominee be the top vote-getter in at least eight primary or caucus states. This was a reaction to Ron Paul, who won lots of delegates in states he lost. Ford secured enough votes before the first round of balloting, giving him the nomination. That technically made it a “contested,” not “brokered” convention. A brokered convention is when no candidate has enough delegates after the first round of voting and deals have to be made at the convention. The last time that happened on the GOP side was in 1948, when New York Gov. Thomas Dewey emerged the winner and went on to defeat Truman. Or not. That also happened to be the first televised convention. 11 OVERVIE W SOUND SMART FACT NPR B RIE FING B O O K 12 The GOP does not have superdelegates. They do have 168 RNC members automatically granted seats at the national convention. In some states, they are bound by the state vote. In others, they can vote how they want. It’s a bird! It’s a plane! It’s ... a superdelegate? Various current and former Democratic Party leaders and elected officials in each state – governors, senators, congressmen, former presidents, national chairmen, etc. – are automatically given seats to the Democratic National Convention. They are free to vote however they choose. Because of that power, they are colloquially referred to as “superdelegates.” Officially, they are known as “unpledged party leaders and elected officials.” There are approximately 712 of them this year – about 15 percent of total delegates. Superdelegates can tip the balance in a close election, and political scientists have found elected officials’ endorsements are a strong predictor of the party’s nominee. In 2008, Barack Obama upended that, but he eventually did win over a larger share than Hillary Clinton, the early favorite in that primary. Clinton is again the odds-on favorite to win the nomination, and this year, she has a much larger lead among superdelegates. In November, the Associated Press was able to reach 80 percent of the superdelegates and found Clinton held a 359-to8 lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. (Just two people said they were casting their vote for Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley.) In late 2007, Clinton led Obama 169 to 63. That was an almost 3-to1 advantage as compared to this year’s 45-to-1 ratio. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E OVERVIEW Turnout – Will People Vote In These Primaries? Because of voters’ sour mood, the trend of low turnout in primaries and caucuses could continue. (For Iowa-specific turnout, see page 17). % giving a lot/some thought to the candidates... In 2012, fewer voted in primaries than ever before in a presidential year. Just under 16 percent of voters did so, or about one-in-six. More will likely head to the polls this year for one simple reason: this is an open presidential election. When both the Republican and Democratic primaries are contested, more people vote. Source: Pew Research Center survey conducted Dec. 8-13, 2015 Credit: Meg Kelly/NPR level from 2008 – that is unless both sides’ races go on as long. NPR B RIE FING B O O K There is some evidence that voters are even more engaged in this election than 2008, particularly on the GOP side (see chart at right). It will be difficult to match the turnout Source: American University’s Center for the Study of the American Electorate Credit: Meg Kelly/NPR IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 13 OVERVIE W Ad Spending Money isn’t everything. That axiom has certainly proven true in this campaign. A superPAC supporting Jeb Bush has swamped all others in TV spending, but Bush finds himself behind in Iowa, New Hampshire and nearly everywhere else. Message matters most, and message control is important. If this election has taught us one lesson, it’s that outsourcing your message to a group you’re not allowed to coordinate with is not the best way to conduct a campaign. NPR B RIE FING B O O K 14 money and ad spending can matter. SuperPACs have been effective in the past at taking out candidates with negative ads (see: RomneyGingrich). And in this election, ads supporting Marco Rubio have aided his rise in early states. John Kasich used early spending in New Hampshire to qualify for the main debate stage. And the four spending the most in New Hampshire are the ones competing to be the establishment-acceptable candidate. Donald Trump, for one, hasn’t had to worry about media attention. He is starting to spend money, however, reserving some $2 million a week in air time before the first votes. Still, IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E Presidential Campaign Ad Spending In Iowa Through January 9. here?s how much r'rioneg.I the biggest spenders In the presidentia: race had dumped into broadcast ads in Iowa. Uan?pa one I I Groups I 1 Huh I: Clidlcn SandErs Ca'SCll Tr..r'rp 11- NBC News Clog-r. Jab-o Presidential Campaign Ad Spending In New Hampshire Through January 9 here?sr how much money The higgest spenders in the presidential race had spent on broadcast ads in New Hampshire. Campaigns I I Outside Groups Clinton . am - Sanders Carson T'ump an NBC News I'm-flit Harri-Hir- DATE: FEB. 1 IOWA Time: Caucusing begins at 8 p.m. EST/7p.m. CST. (There will be 1,683 precinct caucuses taking place at more than 1,000 locations.) NPR B RIE FING B O O K 16 Republican delegates: 30 bound (proportional based on overall vote). Democratic delegates: 52 (44 at stake, because there are eight superdelegates.) None of the delegates will be selected on caucus night. They’re picked at county, district and state conventions. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E SOUND SMART FACT What’s the origination of the word “caucus”? It’s not precisely clear where the word “caucus” came from, but the best evidence scholars point to is an Algonquin Indian word -- cau´-cau-as´u, meaning “one who advises, urges, encourages” and “to talk to … give counsel, advise, encourage, and to urge, promote, incite to action.” It’s believed that American colonialists adopted the word, because American Indians’ governance was their best model for representative democracy. What will turnout be like? *Incumbent president ran unopposed Sources: Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Results; +New York Times; ^Des Moines Public Library Credit: Meg Kelly/NPR IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E A higher turnout, closer to 150,000, is thought to help Trump, because he’s attracting a higher percentage of people who’ve never caucused. Something closer to 125,000 would likely help Cruz. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Only a small percentage of Iowa’s voters turn out, likely around 1-in-6, or a few hundred thousand of its 2.1 million registered voters. The most to ever turn out in the Democratic caucuses is 240,000 in 2008, nearly double the previous high. For Republicans, 2012 was a record of about 122,000. That could be broken this year. If Iowa ties record turnout on both sides, it would be just 17% turnout of registered voters. Even if you consider just the 1.3 million Democrats and Republicans, turnout would still be less than 30%. *Incumbent president ran unopposed Sources: U.S. Census, ^Iowa Secretary of State, *Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Results; +New York Times Credit: Meg Kelly/NPR 17 Iowa Race Overview It’s been a topsy-turvy race on both sides. What follows is a look at where the race has stood, based on an average of public polls, maintained by the web site RealClearPolitics. Polls, we should emphasize, are (flawed) snapshots in time that should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. They have, can and will change, but they are guideposts to about where the race has stood. But they have also driven fundraising, momentum and media narratives surrounding the candidates. NPR B RIE FING B O O K 18 DEMOCRATS get no delegates at all because of Democratic caucus rules. The party has a 15 percent threshold for a candidate to qualify in a precinct. If not, those voters must choose another candidate. REPUBLICANS Five different candidates led in polls over the past year – Mike Huckabee, Scott Walker, Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Ted Cruz. Walker, who wound up dropping out in September after being an asterisk in national polls, led longer than anyone – six months. That all would change. By September, Sanders – fueled by an activist, grassroots base of older and younger white liberals, concerned with the wage gap and the unfairness of the economic system – had completely erased Clinton’s advantage. Clinton, with her considerable organizational efforts, extended her lead to double digits, but the race has crept back to within the margin of error in some polls. Huckabee, the Arkansas governor and 2008 winner, led a year ago by high single digits. He was a familiar name with a loyal base. But it didn’t last long. Just a month later, the new darling was Walker, the governor from neighboring Wisconsin, who had successfully broken public labor unions and proven to be a fighter, winning three elections in four years, including a recall attempt. He’d delivered a speech that lit the base on fire and was instantly all the buzz. The term “dark horse” was being used to describe him by Washington pundits. He was THE pick for the nomination by the smart set – and went on to lead in the polls for six months, from February to August. Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley has not polled above mid-single digits all year, and that could be a very big problem for him. It not only means he will have a difficult time winning the state, but he might But then along came Trump with his brashness and controversy. The base ate up his crusade against political correctness, and he became the biggest disruption in the GOP race. Walker – and none Hillary Clinton began this election about as close to a presumptive nominee as anyone could be. A year ago, she led by 40 points over her closest competitor, Vermont Independent Bernie Sanders. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E SOUND SMART FACT of the candidates, frankly – never seemed to know how to respond. One voter in Iowa told NPR’s Don Gonyea that Walker was “blanded” out of the race. Walker also struggled on the campaign trail with a series of missteps, including on foreign policy, birthright citizenship and whether there should be a wall along the U.S.-Canada border. By late September, he was out of the race. By late October, Carson topped them all at 29 percent. But he quickly wilted in the spotlight. He often seemed not to have a deep grasp of the issues, appearing most uncomfortable on foreign policy. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Though Walker led in the race for Iowa the longest, he never rose above 21 percent support on average in the very crowded field. Trump rocketed past him, rising to 28 percent, his peak, by midSeptember. On Trump’s heels, though, was Carson, the quiet former neurosurgeon with a big following among the Christian right. month, but the decline of Carson meant the rise of Ted Cruz. Cruz has hinged his candidacy on the support of the religious right. The Texas senator, who went to school on the campus of a Baptist church, kicked off his campaign at Liberty University, the evangelical college in Virginia even though Cruz has no ties to the school or Virginia. He’s now the man to beat in Iowa, and it looks like a two-man race between him and Trump. Don’t overlook who finishes third in Iowa among Republicans. Those who finish in the top three are referred to as getting a “ticket out of Iowa.” As of early January, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio was running third. For whichever “establishment”acceptable candidate gets that ticket out, it will be a shot of momentum, as they try to do better in New Hampshire and beyond. That was bad news, particularly with the coming intense focus on fighting terrorism following the Paris attacks. That attack, in fact, marked Carson’s drop off. He went on to lose nearly 60 percent of his support over the next month. He wound up leading in Iowa for less than two weeks. The renewed focus on ISIS ended up benefiting Trump. After a dip in the polls, after the Paris attacks, he was back on top for nearly a IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 19 How The Caucuses Work Iowa Republicans vs. Democrats: While Iowans in both parties “caucus,” there are some key differences in how they do it. Here’s an explainer of the processes for both sides: REPUBLICANS 30 delegates (bound and allocated proportionally)GOP NPR B RIE FING B O O K caucuses will be held at about 700 locations – schools, libraries, church basements, fire stations, even living rooms. They start at 8 p.m. EST/7 p.m. CST (local time) and last about an hour. There will be a series of “straw polls,” or informal voting. Instead of voting machines, there will be folded pieces of paper passed in, collected and tabulated. Here’s what you need to know: 1. There’s a call to order. 2. A caucus chair and secretary are elected. 3. Presidential candidate representatives speak and make their case. 4. Caucusgoers pick a candidate through paper ballot. (In past years, depending on the size of the caucus, this could have been done through a show of hands.) 20 5. Votes are tallied and reported to party headquarters. After problems in 2012, this will be done through a Microsoft-developed app, which Democrats are using, too. 6. Delegates are elected to attend county conventions. (This year, in a change from past years, delegates will be affixed to candidates based on the same proportion of votes respective candidates receive at the caucus.) 7. Alternates and junior delegates are elected. (Junior delegates are under 18. Consider them apprentice caucusgoers.) Key point: Actual people will not be assigned to candidates. In other words, John or Suzy from Titonka won’t be tied to candidate X. Instead, at the national convention, the state GOP chair will stand and announce how many delegates are being assigned to candidates, based on the vote at the caucuses. (The state party anticipates the official number will be known within two days after the caucuses.) Why this matters: Delegates are only “bound” to vote for a candidate in the first round of balloting at the convention. After that, it could be a free-for-all – if it gets to the point of a brokered convention. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E SOUND SMART FACT DEMOCRATS 52 delegates (44 at stake, but none are assigned that night. This is a long, complicate process that takes place at county, district and state conventions over several months culminating in June.) 1. There’s a call to order. 2. A caucus chair and secretary are elected. 3. Caucusgoers separate into groups in corners or parts of the room for their candidates of choice. 4. Time is usually made for supporters of each candidate to make their cases. 5. When the groups are formed, the elected chair, adds up how many supporters are in each cluster. 6. Each candidate has to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent. That means the number of people in the cluster has to be at least 15 percent of all the participants in the room. (This has the most relevance to O’Malley, who hasn’t polled above single digits here. If there are 100 people caucusing and, of them, IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 7. If a candidate is determined not to be viable, that candidate’s supporters have to choose another candidate. In the example above, O’Malley’s 14 people have to “recaucus” and can choose Sanders, Clinton (or someone else unknown who clears the threshold). 8. During the re-caucusing process, supporters from the viable candidates try to sway the nonviable candidate to their side. (This is why in polling ahead of the caucuses, it’s important to take note of lower-tier candidates’ “second choices.”) 9. Once the re-caucusing is settled and all remaining candidates are deemed viable, the numbers are tallied and, this year, will be sent in using an app built by Microsoft. 10. Delegates and alternates are selected to attend county conventions. 11. Party business is conducted, including elections to committees and platform resolutions are introduced. 12. The 1,683 precinct caucuses create 11,065 delegates. They are filtered to 44 national convention delegates at a mix of county (March This is all about media attention, momentum and perception. So, when you hear that a candidate “won” X number of delegates that night, it’s an estimate made by, for NPR’s purposes, the AP. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Democratic caucuses will be held at more than 1,000 caucus locations. They start at 8 p.m. EST/7 p.m. CST (local time). There are no secret ballots. The process is completely out in the open. Caucusgoers cluster in corners for their candidates and try to win over their neighbors. Here’s what you need to know: 14 (or fewer) say they’re voting for O’Malley, then O’Malley would get ZERO delegates out of that precinct.) None of the delegates are bound, meaning none are tied to a candidate that night. They are picked at county, district and state conventions weeks and months later. 12), congressional district (April 30) and state (June 18) conventions. They are not related to the caucus night vote in any way except to nominate that first round of 11,065. Note: The eight superdelegates bypass this process and go straight to the national convention. On the following page, find the official caucus math worksheet and reporting form Democrats have used in past elections. 21 Iowa Candidate Travel – ‘Sioux City, Cedar City… I’ve Been Everywhere, Man’ REPUBLICANS Who went where can tell you which states candidates see as important to their paths to victory. The three Democrats have made roughly the same number of trips to Iowa with Clinton narrowly ahead of O’Malley and Sanders, as of early January. It’s notable that despite the time O’Malley has spent in the state, he’s been unable to translate that to climb out of single digits in the polls. Mike Huckabee, the 2008 winner, and Rick Santorum, the 2012 winner, have made the most trips. Neither, though, has caught on this year. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, the current favorites, are not far behind. The chart below also shows candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush have been far more focused on New Hampshire. NPR B RIE FING B O O K DEMOCRATS Source: National Journal. *Visits made to Iowa between Nov. 4, 2014 and Jan. 7, 2016 IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 23 Iowa At-A-Glance Population, 2014 estimate Iowa Population change since 2010 census 3,107,126 State Rank 30 Urban 64% Rural 36% Veterans 232,000 Most populous places Des Moines Cedar Rapids Davenport Sioux City Iowa City Demographics 3,107,126 209,220 129,195 102,448 82,517 73,415 (2%) (7%) U.S. Average 318,857,056 (3.3%) 21,800,000 (5%) NPR B RIE FING B O O K White Hispanic Black Asian 92% 6% 3% 2% 77% 17% 13% 5% Median Age 65 years and older Under 18 38 16% 23% 38 15% 23% High school grads Bachelor’s degree or higher 91% 26% 86% 29% Median household income Homeownership rate Persons below poverty $51,843 72% 12% $53,046 65% 15% Age Education Income 2,082,063 633,376 (30%) Democrats 647,696 (31%) Republicans 800,991 (38%) Other Registered Voters total Presidential Vote – General Election 2012 2008 Obama (D) 822,544 Romney (R) 730,617 51.99% 46.18% Obama (D) McCain (R) 828,940 53.93% 682,379 44.39% Source: U.S. Census and iowa Data Center 24 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E Iowa Caucus Facts And History Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status in the presidential nomination process came about in the Vietnam War era. It wound up being first in the nation, in part, because its process was so long it needed the extra time. • After the violent 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Democrats appointed a commission, headed by Sen. George McGovern, to review the nominating process. New rules called for more meetings, better notification, lengthier procedures, more participation and discussion. That was all intended to open up the party to grassroots supporters and to diminish the power of city bosses like Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. • • To comply with the national party’s rules, and still hold its state convention in June, as required by state law, Iowa Democrats scheduled their 1972 caucuses in late January. This placed Iowa ahead of New Hampshire, which had been the nation’s first contest for decades. The first Iowa caucuses in 1972 were poorly attended.8 McGovern placed second, but his unexpectedly strong showing was seen as a de facto victory. McGovern went on to win the Democratic nomination. • In 1976, Iowa Republicans, for the first time, held their caucuses on the same night as the Democrats. Meanwhile, in the Democratic caucuses, a little-known former Georgia governor finished second behind “uncommitted.” In the years since Jimmy Carter won the presidency, the Iowa caucuses have been the first significant nominating contest for both parties. • Since 1972, the eventual nominee of each party has been among the top four finishes in Iowa (when “uncommitted” is included as a choice.) • Herbert Hoover was the first person born in Iowa to be elected president. His birthplace in West Branch is preserved as a museum by the National Park Service. • It’s been 20 years since Iowa held its caucuses in February.9 NPR B RIE FING B O O K • 8 Source: Polk County Election office https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/05/12/everything-you-need-toknow-about-how-the-presidential-primary-works/ 9 IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 25 Iowa Caucus Results, 1972-2012 Democrats 2012: Barack Obama unopposed 1988 for re-nomination Richard Gephardt 31.3% Paul Simon 26.7% Michael Dukakis 22.2% 2008 Barack Obama 37.6% Jesse Jackson John Edwards 29.8% Bruce Babbitt Hillary Clinton 29.5% Bill Richardson 2.1% Joe Biden 0.9% 8.8% 6.1% Uncommitted 4.5% Gary Hart 0.3% Al Gore 0% Others 0.2% 1984 2004 Walter Mondale 48.9% NPR B RIE FING B O O K John Kerry 37.6% Gary Hart 16.5% John Edwards 31.9% George McGovern 10.3% Uncommitted 9.4% Howard Dean 18% Dick Gephardt 10.6% Dennis Kucinich 1.3% John Glenn 3.5% Wesley Clark 0.1% Reuben Askew 2.5% Uncommitted 0.1% Jesse Jackson 1.5% Joe Lieberman 0% Ernest Hollings 0% Al Sharpton 0% Alan Cranston 7.4% 1980 2000 Jimmy Carter 59.1% Al Gore 63% Edward Kennedy 31.2% Bill Bradley 35% Uncommitted 9.6% Uncommitted 2% 1996: Bill Clinton unopposed for Uncommitted 37.2% the re-nomination Jimmy Carter 27.6% Birch Bayh 13.2% Fred Harris 9.9% 1976 1992 Tom Harkin 76.4% Uncommitted 11.9% 1972 Paul Tsongas 4.1% Bill Clinton 2.8% Uncommitted 35.8% Bob Kerrey 2.4% Edmund Muskie 35.5% Jerry Brown 1.6% George McGovern 22.6% Others 0.6% Hubert Humphrey 1.6% Eugene McCarthy 1.4% Other 3.1% Source: Des Moines Register 26 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E Iowa Caucus Results, 1976-2012 – Republicans 2012 Rick Santorum 24.6% Mitt Romney 24.5% Ron Paul 21.4% 1988 Newt Gingrich 13.3% Bob Dole 37.4% Rick Perry 10.3% Pat Robertson 24.6% 5% George Bush 18.6% John Huntsman 0.6% Jack Kemp 11.1% Herman Cain 0% Pete DuPont 7.3% No preference 0.7% Alexander Haig 0.3% Michele Bachmann 1992: President Bush unopposed 2008 for re-nomination. 34.4% Mitt Romney 25.2% 1984: President Reagan unopposed Fred Thompson 13.4% for nomination. John McCain 13% Ron Paul 9.9% 1980 Rudy Giuliani 3.4% George Bush 31.6% Ronald Reagan 29.5% 2004: George W. Bush unopposed Howard Baker 15.3% for re-nomination John Connally 9.3% Phil Crane 6.7% 2000 John Anderson 4.3% George W. Bush 41% No preference 1.7% Steve Forbes 30% Bob Dole 1.5% Alan Keyes 14% Gary Bauer 9% 1976* John McCain 5% Gerald Ford 264 Orrin Hatch 1% Ronald Reagan 248 Undecided 62 Others 9 1996 Bob Dole Pat Buchanan NPR B RIE FING B O O K Mike Huckabee 26% 23% Lamar Alexander 17.6% Steve Forbes 10.1% Phil Gramm 9.3% Alan Keyes 7.4% Richard Lugar 3.7% Maurice Taylor 1.4% No preference 0.4% Robert Dornan 0.1% *Sample of only 62 precincts taken Source: Des Moines Register IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 27 Iowa And The General Election 1968 Nixon (R) 1992 619,106 53.01% Humphrey (D) 476,699 Wallace (I) 66,422 Clinton (D) 586,353 43.29% 40.82% Bush (R) 504,891 37.27% 5.69% Perot (I) 253,468 8.71% Clinton (D) 620,258 50.26% Dole (R) 492,644 39.92% Perot (Reform) 105,159 8.52% 1972 1996 Nixon (R) 706,207 57.61% McGovern (D) 496,206 40.48% Schmitz (I) 22,056 1.80% 2000 1976 NPR B RIE FING B O O K Gore (D) 638,517 48.54% 634,373 48.22% 29,374 2.23% Bush (R) 751,957 49.90% Kerry (D) 741,898 49.23% Ford (R) 632,863 49.47% Bush (R) Carter (D) 619,931 48.46% Nader (Green) McCarthy (*) 20,051 1.57% 2004 1980 Reagan (R) 676,026 51.31% Carter (D) 508,672 38.60% Anderson (*) 115,633 8.78% 1984 Reagan (R) 703,088 53.27% Mondale (D) 605,620 45.89% 1988 Dukakis (D) 670,557 54.71% Bush (R) 545,355 44.50% 2008 Obama (D) 828,940 53.93% McCain (R) 682,379 44.39% Obama (D) 822,544 51.99% Romney (R) 730,617 46.18% 2012 Source: US Election Atlas 28 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E DATE: FEB. 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE Time: Most polls are open from 7 a.m. EST to 7 p.m. EST. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Each town, and there are more than 200, sets its own time. The first votes in the state are cast at midnight in Dixville Notch, a town of fewer than 100 in the far northern reaches of the state. The last polls in the state close at 8 p.m. EST. Manchester, the state’s largest city, is open from 6 am EST to 7 p.m. EST. Republican delegates: 23 total (20 at stake on primary night). Delegates are assigned to candidates roughly proportional to statewide and congressional-district vote with a 10 percent threshold. (More on this on p. 34) Democratic delegates: 32 (24 at stake on primary night, because there are eight superdelegates). Delegates are pledged to candidates roughly proportional to the statewide and congressional-district vote. (More on this on p. 35) 30 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E Happy 100th Birthday, New Hampshire primary This is the 100th year of the New Hampshire primary. Back in 1916, though, candidates weren’t on the ballot – just delegates to the national convention were. It wasn’t until 1949 when the state passed a law allowing people to vote directly for candidates in the primary. The first of those took place in 1952. But its first-in-the-nation primary status became official in 1975, when the state passed a law declaring it had to be the first primary. The guard dog of that first-in-the-nation status is Secretary of State Bill Gardner. He’s the longest-serving secretary of state in the nation, installed just before the first-in-the-nation law passed. He thwarted the efforts of Howard Dean as DNC chairman to reshuffle the order of the states, and when RNC Chairman Reince Priebus floated a similar idea in 2015, Gardner swatted that down, saying state law would trump anything else. New Hampshire has a reputation for high voter participation. Democrats’ turnout record of almost 290,000 was set in 2008. Republicans, on the other hand, set one last election with almost a quarter-million ballots cast. Those don’t sound like huge numbers, but there are only 874,000 registered voters in the state. If both sides set records again, turnout would top 60 percent. NPR B RIE FING B O O K What will turnout be like? * Incumbent president ran opposed Source: US Election Atlas Credit: Meg Kelly IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 31 SOUND SMART FACT Particularly in Democratic primaries, beware of automated or “robo” polls (like PPP). These are surveys that don’t use live telephone interviewers and instead make people press buttons. NPR B RIE FING B O O K 32 Why? They are not allowed by law to call cell phones. That reduces the number of young people they can reach, which could inaccurately skew the survey. In practical terms, these polls don’t capture the full support for someone like Sanders, who draws strong support from college-age voters. New Hampshire Race Overview DEMOCRATS New Hampshire, like Iowa, has been a two-person race between Clinton and Sanders. Sanders has shown surprising strength overall and has performed best in polls in New Hampshire. Make no mistake: He needs a win here. His campaign believes in order to gain the kind of momentum – and money – he needs to have a real shot at the nomination, to break through Clinton’s so-called “firewall” with non-white voters crucial in later states, he needs New Hampshire. Clinton is a household name in New Hampshire, too. Hillary Clinton won a come-from-behind victory here to defeat Barack Obama in 2008, ensuring a long, drawn-out primary fight. It’s also where her husband, Bill, became dubbed “The Comeback Kid” in 1992 (even though he finished second in the primary to Paul Tsongas). He has started to fare better with black and Hispanic voters the more they’ve gotten to know him and heard his message, but Clinton still has big leads with both groups. It’s a huge hill for Sanders to climb in a short period of time with Nevada and South Carolina following after New Hampshire in February. Like in Iowa, Clinton started out as the overwhelming favorite. But she saw a 50-point lead evaporate by late August. Sanders caught Clinton Aug. 25th, and led through late October. The Clinton campaign has been playing an expectations game here, claiming it will be a “tough” race. Former President Bill Clinton, while campaigning in the state, even claimed (falsely) that no one from a state neighboring New Hampshire has ever lost the Democratic primary here. (Vermont Gov. Howard Dean lost it in 2004, but to someone else from a neighboring state, John Kerry of Massachusetts. In 1980, Ted Kennedy, from Massachusetts, lost New Hampshire to Jimmy Carter – from Georgia.) For those reasons, New Hampshire very well could come down to the wire. Clinton began a rise after the first Democratic debate (Oct. 13) when Sanders proclaimed that “the American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails.” Clinton regained the lead briefly the week of her Benghazi committee testimony. Since then, Sanders stretched his lead some. But, just a month out from the primary, Sanders and Clinton were in a statistical tie. IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E SOUND SMART FACT REPUBLICANS If Iowa is about social-values religious conservatives, then New Hampshire is about fiscally minded and security-focused mainstream, establishment-friendly Republicans. At least that’s been the conventional wisdom in GOP politics for the last 40 years. But this is no typical year. This race has been upended by one man ­— Donald Trump. Trump has led in New Hampshire for six consecutive months, since July 28, and with double the support of other candidates. Despite Trump’s dominance, the other campaigns believe the billionaire would be disastrous for the party as the nominee. They see a path for their candidates -- they argue Trump has not exceeded 30 percent in polls in the state; and if the establishment coalesces around one person, that candidate could get a majority of delegates and defeat Trump. Operatives in rival campaigns also believe if Trump loses Iowa, where he’s trailing Ted Cruz, he will lose momentum – and New Hampshire. Those are a lot of “ifs,” but it’s the path the establishment sees to wresting back control of the process IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E Christie has newfound momentum after winning the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader, the state’s largest newspaper. More important than the polls, in which he’s statistically tied for second or third, the other establishment candidates were ganging up on him a month before the primary. There’s usually no better sign than that of who’s viewed as a threat. Christie has been campaigning in New Hampshire “the New Hampshire way.” His blunt personality lends itself to the kind of small and straightforward town halls New Hampshire voters like. (Remember, “straight-talker” John McCain won here twice using that method.) After solid and steady debate performances, Rubio has quietly moved into second place here. But questions remain about his effort in on-the-ground campaigning and whether he’s making the kinds of real connections that are necessary to win. Still, he’s won over key GOP donors looking for an alternative to Jeb Bush, who has disappointed many in the donor class with an uneven campaign performance. Bush, in fact, may be the person with the most on the line in New Hampshire. He’s got more money invested and more staff on the ground here than anyone else. If he can’t at least finish ahead of the other establishment candidates here, it’s hard to see a strong case for his path going forward. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Just three people have led the GOP New Hampshire race in the 2016 cycle – Trump, Jeb Bush, who has badly faltered and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who led for a month last spring before ultimately dropping out of the race completely in the fall. from the outsiders. Because of that, New Hampshire is where the battle royale is taking place for the heart of the establishment. In addition to watching if Trump wins, and what his margin is, the race to watch here is between New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. The number to watch here is 10%. The New Hampshire GOP has a hard threshold, meaning if a candidate gets below 10%, even if it’s 9.9%, they get no delegates. Get this: All of those leftovers go to the winner of the state. (See p. 35 for more.) Kasich has gone after Trump hard. It hasn’t helped him in the polls yet, but he’s hoping if there is a reflexive movement among mainstream New Hampshire Republicans against Trump on Election Day, that they will go with the Ohio governor. Kasich and his allies have spent more than $10 million on TV ads in the state, the second most behind Bush. 33 How The New Hampshire Primary Works VOTING IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. HOW THE DELEGATES ARE ALLOCATED Voters cast anonymous ballots at regular polling locations. The election is run by the secretary of state’s office, not the parties. Unlike Iowa’s lengthy process of selecting delegates, New Hampshire is a bit less complicated. But it has its quirks, math (and, yes, even a caucus!) THE PRIMARY IS “SEMI-OPEN” OR “SEMI-CLOSED.” NPR B RIE FING B O O K Independents and undeclared voters can vote in either the Republican or Democratic elections. But Democrats and Republicans cannot vote in the other parties’ primaries. In order for undeclared or independent residents to vote, they have to select a Democratic or Republican ballot. In doing that, they will be automatically registered with the party. If they want to remain undeclared, they have to fill out a card saying so before they leave the polling location after voting. DEMOCRATS – 32 total delegates (24 at stake on primary night) Here’s how this breaks down: • 16 assigned proportionally by congressional-district vote. Candidates must reach a 15% threshold (“district-level” delegates) • 8 assigned proportionally by statewide vote (“at-large delegates.” These consist of 5 at large rank-and-file regular people, 3 pledged party leaders and elected officials) *An additional 8 unpledged party leaders and elected officials, otherwise known as superdelegates are not apportioned based on the presidential vote. They can vote however they want at the national convention. Note: Technically, none of the Democratic delegates is legally bound to vote for the candidates to whom they are assigned. But in practical terms, these are activists picked by each candidate. There’s a pre-primary caucus, where potential delegates, picked by each campaign, are part of a slate that compete for a seat to the convention. These are partisans, activists who want to vote for their person. 34 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E REPUBLICANS – 23 total delegates (20 at stake on primary night) Here’s how this breaks down: • 14 assigned proportionally by the statewide vote total (“at large”) • 6 assigned proportionally by congressional-district vote (“district-level delegates”) 10 percent threshold: In order for a candidate to qualify for delegates, they must reach at least 10 percent of the primary vote. If they don’t reach 10 percent (and this is a hard 10 percent -- no rounding), the remaining delegates are all awarded to the statewide winner. LET’S SAY THREE CANDIDATES DON’T REACH 10 PERCENT, HERE’S HOW THE MATH WOULD BE WORK: Step 1. Add up the vote percentages of the candidates who miss the cut: + Candidate X 9% Candidate Y 8% Candidate Z 8% NPR B RIE FING B O O K *3 Republican National Committee members are automatically given seats to the national convention. They differ, however, from Democratic superdelegates in that they cannot vote for whomever they want in New Hampshire. As of a month before the primary, the New Hampshire GOP was unclear exactly how the three RNC members would be apportioned. They might either be split proportionally or all three would be assigned to the winner. All going to the winner is the most likely scenario, but it will likely be decided shortly before the primary.) Step 2. Take the 20 delegates available and divide them by 25%. That’s 5 delegates. Step 3. Add the 5 delegates to the statewide winner’s total. That’s 25% of the total vote cast So, in other words, it’s possible that if someone votes for John Kasich, but Kasich doesn’t get 10 percent of the vote, and Donald Trump wins New Hampshire, that person’s vote would go to help Trump. IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 35 New Hampshire Candidate Travel DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Interestingly, the travel data for Iowa and New Hampshire reflect the polls, as of a month before the caucus and primary. Clinton leads in Iowa in the polls and has made the most trips. Sanders leads in New Hampshire and has made the most visits there. Christie, Kasich and Bush have made the most trips to New Hampshire of the Republican candidates. That is telling, given how much is at stake for each of those candidates here. NPR B RIE FING B O O K Source: National Journal; Visits made to N.H. between Nov. 4, 2014 and Jan. 7, 2016; Credit: Meg Kelly 36 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E New Hampshire At-A-Glance Population, 2014 estimate New Hampshire 1,326,813 Population change since 2010 census (+0.8%) State Rank 42 Urban 60% Rural 40% Veterans 141,000 (9%) Most populous places Manchester Nashua Concord Derry town Dover Demographics U.S. Average 318,857,056 (3.3%) 21,800,000 (5%) 110,448 87,259 42,444 33,307 30,665 94% 2% 3% 3% 77% 17% 13% 5% Median Age 10 65 years and older Under 18 years 41 16% 20% 15% 23% High school grads Bachelor’s degree or higher 92% 34% 86% 29% Owener-occupied housing rate Median household income Persons below poverty level 71% $65,986 9% $53,046 65% 15% NPR B RIE FING B O O K White Hispanic Black Asian Age Education Income 873,932 260,896 (30%) Democrats 229,202 (26%) Republicans 383,834 (43%) Other Registered Voters total 11 Presidential Vote – General Election 2012 2008 Obama (D) 369,561 Romney (R) 329,918 51.98% 46.40% Obama (D) McCain (R) 384,826 54.13% 316,534 44.52% https://suburbanstats.org/population/how-manypeople-live-in-new-hampshire 10 11 http://sos.nh.gov/NamesHistory.aspx Source: U.S. Census IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 37 New Hampshire Primary Facts & HIstory • NPR B RIE FING B O O K Dirty tricks: In 1972, Democrat Ed Muskie saw his presidential candidacy collapse after a teary press conference in front of the then-Manchester Union Leader. He was responding to two nasty accusations in the paper – one about made about his wife and another that accused him of using a slur against French Americans, then an important voting bloc in New England. Evidence of the slur came from a letter from a man in Florida. The letter turned out to be a hoax, planted by Nixon’s dirty tricksters. Muskie, from neighboring Maine, won New Hampshire but by less than expected. His once-bright star faded, as people questioned whether he had the mental toughness to lead. Muskie went on to win just one more primary, and Nixon went on to trounce George McGovern in the general election, winning all but Massachusetts and D.C. • A record that stands: Nixon holds the record for New Hampshire primary wins – three (1960, 1968, 1972). When he ran for president in 1960, only 15 other states and D.C. held primaries. • Access to power: After their primary campaign chairmanships, two sitting New Hampshire governors, Sherman Adams (Eisenhower) and John H. Sununu (H.W. Bush), were appointed chiefs of staff to the president. • 100 years: In 1916, New Hampshire held its first primary. Back then, New Hampshire was not voting directly for the candidates, but delegates to the National Convention. The primary took place one week after Indiana’s and the same day as Minnesota’s. To register, a candidate needed 100 signatures and $10 (which by 2015 standards is about $218.) • Becoming first: New Hampshire became the first primary in 1920, when Minnesota dropped its primary, and Indiana moved to May. In 1977, New Hampshire enacted the law that requires it to be first. In the 1980s, Iowa and New Hampshire struck a deal allowing Iowa to hold the first caucus and New Hampshire the first primary. • Engaged voters: In 1996, same-day voter registration was enacted for the first time, resulting in almost 27,000 new voters, with 74 percent of registered Republicans participating. Even though incumbent President Clinton only faced token opposition, 45 percent of registered Democrats voted. It was a national record-high turnout, almost twice that of any other state. • They have lots of practice: New Hampshire holds more regular statewide and local elections, and more frequently, than any other state. Its governor is elected every two years, for example. Source: New Hampshire Political Library 38 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E New Hampshire Primary Results, 1952-2012 Democrats 2012 1988 Barack Obama 82% Write-ins 10% 2008 1972 Michael Dukakis 35.9% Edmund Muskie 4 6.4% Richard Gephardt 19.9% Paul Simon 17.2% George McGovern 37.1% Jesse Jackson 7.8% Sam Yorty 6.1% Wilbur Mills 4.0% Hillary Clinton 39.1% Al Gore 6.8% Barack Obama 36.5% Bruce Babbit 4.6% John Edwards 16.9% Gary Hart 4.0% Bill Richardson 4.6% Others 2.7% William DuPont 1.1% Vance Hartke 1.1% Hubert Humphrey 0.4% Henry Jackson 0.2% 0.2% 1.4% Joe Biden 0.2% George Wallace Mike Gravel 0.1% Others Chris Dodd 0.1% 37.3% Walter Mondale 27.9% 12.0% John Kerry 38.4% John Glenn Howard Dean 26.4% Jesse Jackson Wesley Clark 12.4% George McGovern 5.2% 5.3% John Edwards 12.1% Ernest Hollings 3.5% Joseph Lieberman 8.6% Alan Cranston 2.1% Dennis Kucinich 1.4% Richard Gephardt 0.2% Al Sharpton 0.2% Others 6.8% 1980 Jimmy Carter 47.1% Edward Kennedy 37.3% 51% Edmund Brown 9.6% Bill Bradley 47% Others 6.0% Others 2% 2000 Al Gore 1976 1996 Jimmy Carter 28.4% Bill Clinton 91.9% Morris Udall 22.7% Others 9% Birch Bayh 15.2% Fred Harris 10.8% 1992 Sargent Shriver 8.2% 33.2% Hubert Humphrey 5.6% Bill Clinton 24.8% Henry Jackson 2.3% Bob Kerrey 11.1% George Wallace 1.3% Tom Harkin 10.2% Ellen McCormack 1.2% Edmund Brown 8% Others 4.8% Paul Tsongas Others 1.8% 1968 Lyndon Johnson Eugene McCarthy Others 49.6% 41.9% 8.5% 1964 Lyndon Johnson Robert F. Kennedy Others 95.3% 1.6% 3.2% 1960 John F. Kennedy Others 85.2% 14.8% 1956 Estes Kefauver Others 84.6% 15.4% 1952 Estes Kefauver Harry Truman Douglas MacArthur James Farley Adlai Stevenson 55.0% 44.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% NPR B RIE FING B O O K 2004 Gary Hart 2.7% Edward Kennedy Dennis Kucinich 1984 12.7% Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State/New Hampshire Political Library IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 39 New Hampshire Caucus Results, 1952-2012 – Republicans 2012 1976 1996 39.3% Pat Buchanan 27.4% Gerald Ford 49.4% Ron Paul 22.9% Bob Dole 26.3% Ronald Reagan 48.0% Jon Huntsman 16.9% Lamar Alexander 22.8% Others Newt Gingrich 9.4% Steve Forbes 12.3% Rick Santorum 9.4% Richard Lugar Mitt Romney 5.2% 1972 2.7% Gerald Ford Other 1.1% Alan Keyes Rick Perry 0.7% Morry Taylor 1.4% Ronald Reagan 0.4% Phil Gramm 0.4% Others Buddy Roemer Bob Dornan John McCain 1.2% 37.1% NPR B RIE FING B O O K Mitt Romney 31.6% 1992 Mike Huckabee 11.2% George H.W. Bush 53.2% Rudolph Giuliani 8.6% Patrick Buchanan 36.5% Ron Paul 7.7% Others 10.3% Fred Thompson 1.2% Duncan Hunter 0.5% 1988 0.1% George H. W. Bush 37.6% Bob Dole Jack Kemp Alan Keyes 2004 George W. Bush 79.6% 2.6% 1968 Richard Nixon 77.6% Nelson Rockefeller 10.8% George Romney 1.7% 1964 Barry Goldwater 22.3% Nelson Rockefeller 21.0% 28.4% Richard Nixon 16.8% 12.8% Margaret Chase-Smith 2.3% Pierre du Pont 10.1% Harold Stassen 9.4% 0.3% 1.2% John Buchanan 1.2% Alexander Haig Blake Rigazio 1.2% Others Robert Haines 0.9% Michael Callis 0.6% 1984 Blake Ashby 0.4% Ronald Reagan 0.4% Harold Stassen Tom Laughlin 48.0% 35.5% Richard Boza 49.4% Henry Cabot Lodge Pat Robertson Millie Howard 2.6% 0.2% Others 2008 1.1% 1.5% 1960 Richard Nixon 89.3% Nelson Rockefeller 3.8% Others 7.0% 86.6% 2% 1956 Dwight Eisenhower 0.2% 98.9% Bill Wyatt 0.2% 1980 Others 2.1% Ronald Reagan 49.6% George Bush 22.7% 2000 Howard Baker 12.1% Dwight Eisenhower 50.4% John McCain 45.9% John Anderson 9.8% Robert Taft 38.7% George W. Bush 30.3% Phillip Crane 1.8% Harold Stassen 7.1% Steve Forbes 12.6% John Connally 1.5% Douglas MacArthur 3.5% Alan Keyes 6.4% Others 0.1% Others 0.3% Gary Bauer 0.9% Others 1.1% 1952 Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State and US Election Atlas 40 IOWA + NE W H AMP SHIR E New Hampshire And The General Election 1968 Nixon (R) 1992 154,903 52.1% Clinton (D) 209,040 38.9% Humphrey (D) 130,589 43.9% Bush (R) 202,484 37.6% 11,173 3.8% Perot (I) 121,337 22.6% Nixon (R) 213,724 64% Clinton (D) 246,214 49.3% McGovern (D) 116,435 34.9% Dole (R) 196,532 39.4% Wallace (ind) 1972 1996 1976 Ford (R) 185,935 54.8% Carter (D) 147,635 43.5% 4,095 1.2% McCarthy (*) 9.7% Browne (lib) 4,237 0.9% Bush (R) 273,559 48.1% Gore (D) 266,348 46.8% 22,198 3.9% 2000 Nader (Gr) Reagan (R) 221,705 57.7% Brown (lib) 2,757 0.5% Carter (D) 108,863 28.4% Buchanan (ind) 2,615 0.5% 49,693 12.9% Anderson (*) 2004 1984 Reagan (R) 267,051 68.7% Mondale (D) 120,395 31% 1988 Kerry (D) 340,511 50.2% Bush (R) 331,237 48.9% 4,479 0.7% Nader (Gr) 2008 Bush (R) 281,537 62.5% Obama (D) 384,826 54.1% Dukakis (D) 163,696 36.3% McCain (R) 316,534 44.5% Nader (Gr) 3,503 0.5% Paul (lib) NPR B RIE FING B O O K 1980 Perot (Reform) 48,390 4,502 1% 2012 Obama (D) 369,561 52% Romney (R) 329,918 46.4% 8,212 1.2% Johnson (Lib) Source: New Hampshire Secretary of State and US Election Atlas IOWA + N EW H A MP S H I R E 41