Minister Meeting IMF 29 April 2009
IMF Focus/Comments in discussions with the Banks
·
IMF focus in discussions with banks is on asset quality and funding, in particular
where the pressures are
·
IMF supportive of Government policy re banks (and public finances) but says
Government faces huge task that will need 3-5 years of very careful management
·
IMF consider that loan write downs will not only be in commercial property and
development
o
home mortgage market will be negatively affected with unemployment at
14% or 15% in 2010; effect will be lagged but will occur
o
SME distressed loans will rise
o
Credit cards will see problems
·
IMF asking about modelling of “past due” loans or repossessions; accepted that
repossessions not as common in Ireland as in other countries but still concerned that
there would be a rise in “past due” loans
·
IMF agreed with AIB observation that banks all over Europe are rowing back on
lending
Possible IMF comments on NAMA
·
IMF (Mr Steven Seelig) indicated to Ulster Bank and AIB their support for the
NAMA initiative taken by Ireland
·
IMF would have been encouraging the adoption of a NAMA-type initiative even
if the Minister had not already announced the initiative
·
Re the EU State Aid angle, IMF expressed surprise at some of the concerns
expressed by DG-Competition and did not agree that anti-competitive issues were as
important as resolving the problem in the financial institutions
·
IMF stated that the EU Commission’s desire that a different and specific claw
back should apply to each bank cannot work because that will leave the loans still on
the balance sheet of each bank – NAMA can only work if the risk associated with the
transferred loans has been transferred
·
IMF interested in finding out more about the levy that would be applied to recoup
any shortfall – this type of recourse had never been done anywhere else before
·
IMF (Mr Seelig) do not believe that NAMA will result in significant increase in
bank lending in Ireland