MAHEAMEH A q! can? THE ROAD AHEAD Doug Sosnik February 11, 2016 America’s confidence in nearly all institutions at historic low. Current Year Historical Average Difference THE MILITARY 72 68 4 SMALL BUSINESS 67 63 4 THE CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM 23 24 -1 THE MEDICAL SYSTEM 37 38 -1 ORGANIZED LABOR 24 26 -2 BIG BUSINESS 21 24 -3 THE POLICE 52 57 -5 NEWSPAPERS 24 32 -8 TELEVISION NEWS 21 30 -9 PUBLIC SCHOOLS 31 40 -9 THE PRESIDENCY 33 43 -10 THE US SUPREME COURT 32 44 -12 BANKS 28 40 -12 THE CHURCH AND ORGANIZED RELIGION 42 55 -13 CONGRESS 8 24 -16 Source: Gallup; data based on June 2-7, 2015 poll *Historical averages are based on the times that Gallup asked the question about institutions, which for most dates back to 1973 or 1993. Doug Sosnik 2 Only the top 10% in income earners saw a net positive change in income from ‘06-’14. Source: U.S. Census 2014 Doug Sosnik 3 The wealth of US families increased from 1983 to 2007, but has fallen sharply since then. Source: PEW Research, 12/9/2015 Doug Sosnik 4 Since the summer of ’09, Obama’s job approval has remained in a narrow margin, never going above 53% or below 40%. 49% - Disapprove 47% - Approve Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey 1/13/2016 Doug Sosnik 5 Independent ID near all time high, while GOP and DEM ID near record lows. 44% - Independents 29% - Democrats 26% - Republicans Source: Gallup, January 2016 Doug Sosnik 6 For over a decade, a majority of Americans have said the country is off on the wrong track. 63% - Wrong Track 29% - Right Track Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey 1/13/2016 Doug Sosnik 7 Republican Primaries at a Glance • 2,472 Delegates to the Convention • 168 RNC Members/Automatic Delegates (6.8%) • 1,237 Needed to Win Doug Sosnik 8 Republican Delegate Selection TYPE DELEGATES PERCENTAGE Proportional 637 26% 710 29% State will follow some form of winner-take-more plan (i.e.: winner-take-all by congressional district) or directly elects delegates on the primary ballot. 613 25% Winner-Take-All 400 16% 112 4% Proportional with Trigger State will follow above proportional rules but allows for a winner-take-all allocation if a candidate wins a majority of the vote statewide or at the congressional district level. Hybrid Convention State will bind delegates to the national convention at a state/territory convention. Other conventions will leave the delegation unbound. Source: Frontloading HQ Blog Doug Sosnik 9 Phases of the Republican Primary Phase 1 – Winnowing the Field IA, NH, SC, NV Phase 2 – Super Tuesday (SEC Primary) 653 Delegates (26% of all delegates) Phase 3 – March 15, Winner-take-all Begins Phase 4 – March 16–June 7 Final Primary Voting Phase 5 – RNC Convention, July 18–21, 2016 Doug Sosnik 10 Republican Primary Dates Doug Sosnik Source: RNC; Winner-Take-All* DATE STATE NUMBER OF PLEDGED DELEGATES AT STAKE RUNNING TOTAL % OF PLEDGED DELEGATES ALLOCATED AS OF THIS DATE 2/1/16 IOWA 30 30 1.21% 2/9/16 NEW HAMPSHIRE 23 53 2.14% 2/20/16 SOUTH CAROLINA 50 103 4.17% 2/23/16 NEVADA 30 133 5.38% 689 822 33.25% 155 977 39.52 23 1000 40% ALABAMA ALASKA ARKANSAS COLORADO GEORGIA MASSACHUSETTS 3/1/16 MINNESOTA OKLAHOMA TENNESSEE TEXAS VERMONT VIRGINIA WYOMING NORTH DAKOTA KANSAS 3/5/16 KENTUCKY LOUISIANA MAINE 3/6/16 PUERTO RICO HAWAII 3/8/16 IDAHO MICHIGAN 150 1,150 47% 28 1,178 48% 367 1,545 63% 9 1,554 63% 107 1,661 67% MISSISSIPPI 3/12/16 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA GUAM FLORIDA* ILLINOIS 3/15/16 MISSOURI NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS* OHIO* 3/19/16 US VIRGIN ISLANDS* ARIZONA* 3/22/16 AMERICAN SOMOA UTAH 4/5/16 WISCONSIN 42 1,703 69% 4/19/16 NEW YORK 95 1,798 73% 172 1,970 80% CONNECTICUT DELAWARE* 4/26/16 MARYLAND PENNSYLVANIA RHODE ISLAND 5/3/16 INDIANA 57 2,027 82% 70 2,097 85% NEBRASKA* 5/10/16 WEST VIRGINIA 5/17/16 OREGON 28 2,125 86% 5/24/16 WASHINGTON 44 2,169 88% 303 2,472 100% CALIFORNIA MONTANA* 6/7/16 NEW JERSEY* NEW MEXICO SOUTH DAKOTA* Democratic Primaries at a Glance • 4,763 Total Delegates • 712 Super Delegates (14.9%) • 4,051 Pledged Delegates All pledged delegates allocated proportionally; no winner take all • 2,382 Delegates Needed to Win Paula Lively Gage Skidmore • DNC Convention, July 25-28, 2016 Doug Sosnik 14 Key Presidential Primary Dates – Democrats DATE NUMBER OF DELEGATES STATES MARCH 1 865 AL, American Somoa, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, OK, TN, TX, VT, VA MARCH 15 691 FL, IL, MO, NC, OH APRIL 19* 247 NY APRIL 26 384 CT, DE, MD, NE, RI JUNE 7 695 CA, MT, ND, NJ, NM, SD Paula Lively Gage Skidmore 63% of the pledged delegates are determined on 4 primary dates. The New York Primary will be ground zero for the Wall Street debate. Doug Sosnik 15 Democratic Primary Dates Doug Sosnik Source: Ballotpedia; States of Change, AE, Brookings, CAP DATE STATE MINORITY ELIGIBLE VOTERS NUMBER OF PLEDGED DELEGATES AT STAKE RUNNING TOTAL % OF PLEDGED DELEGATES ALLOCATED AS OF THIS DATE 2/1/16 IOWA 8.70% 44 44 1.09% 2/9/16 NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.30% 24 68 1.68% 2/20/16 NEVADA 36.70% 35 103 2.54% 2/27/16 SOUTH CAROLINA 32.10% 53 156 3.85% ALABAMA 29.90% AMERICAN SOMOA   ARKANSAS 22.40% COLORADO 24.30% GEORGIA 39.60% MASSACHUSETTS 18.10% MINNESOTA 12.20% 865 1,021 25.20% OKLAHOMA 27% TENNESSEE 21% TEXAS 47.50% VERMONT 4.40% VIRGINIA 30.90% KANSAS 17.90% LOUISIANA 37.20% 109 1,130 27.89% NEBRASKA 13.20% MAINE 3.80% 25 1,155 28.51% 3/1/16 3/5/16 3/6/16 MICHIGAN 21% MISSISSIPPI 39.30% NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS   FLORIDA 34.40% ILLINOIS 30.30% MISSOURI 16.70% NORTH CAROLINA 31.20% OHIO 16.50% ARIZONA 34.70% IDAHO 11.80% UTAH 14.20% 3/26/16 ALASKA 32.70%   HAWAII 75.50%   WASHINGTON 21.20% 4/5/16 WISCONSIN 4/9/16 4/19/16 3/8/16 3/12/16 3/15/16 3/22/16 4/26/16 179 1,334 32.93% 6 1,340 33.08% 691 2,031 50.14% 131 2,162 53.37% 141 2,303 56.85% 12.70% 86 2,389 58.97% WYOMING 11.80% 14 2,403 59.32% NEW YORK 34.80% 247 2,650 65.42% CONNECTICUT 24% DELAWARE 29.50% MARYLAND 40.30% 384 3,034 74.90% PENNSYLVANIA 17.50% RHODE ISLAND 17% 5/3/16 INDIANA 15.30% 83 3,117 76.94% 5/7/16 GUAM   7 3,124 77.12% 5/10/16 WEST VIRGINIA 6.30% 29 3,153 77.83% KENTUCKY 11.10% 116 3,269 80.70% 5/17/16 OREGON 15.80% 6/4/16 US VIRGIN ISLANDS   7 3,276 80.87% 6/5/16 PUERTO RICO   60 3,336 82.35% CALIFORNIA 49.20% MONTANA 10.90% NEW JERSEY 34.10% 695 4,031 99.51% 20 4,051 100% 6/7/16 6/14/16 NEW MEXICO 55% NORTH DAKOTA 10.10% SOUTH DAKOTA 12.20% DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 64% 2016 Senate Races: 24 Republicans & 10 Democrats are up for re-election Solid/Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss-up Lean GOP Solid/Likely GOP WA ND NY OR CA WI SC ID PA IA NV OH IL VT CT MD NH IN UT CO MO KS OK AZ KY NC SC AR GA GA AL (OPEN) LA FL GOP INCUMBENT/ OBAMA WON IN 2008 & 2012 (7) Open Seat (3D, 2R) AK HI Source: Cook Political 2/2/2016 Doug Sosnik 19 The presidential outcome will likely determine control of the US Senate. 2014 MINORITY ELIGIBLE VOTER OBAMA/ROMNEY 2012 ELECTION PRESIDENTIAL AD SPENDING ($896M) 2016 SENATE RACES COLORADO 24.3% 51/46 $73 million Bennet (D) FLORIDA 34.4% 50/49 $173 million OPEN (R) ILLINOIS 30.3% IOWA 8.7% 52/46 $57 million Grassley (R) NEVADA 36.7% 52/46 $55 million OPEN (D) NEW HAMPSHIRE 5.3% 52/46 $34 million Ayotte (R) NORTH CAROLINA 31.2% 48/50 $97 million Burr (R) OHIO 16.5% 51/48 $150 million Portman (R) PENNSYLVANIA 17.5% 52/47 VIRGINIA 30.9% 51/47 $151 million WISCONSIN 12.7% 53/46 $39 million STATE Kirk (R) Source: States of Change, Brookings, AEI, CAP, Feb. 2015; 2012 Exit Polls; Kantar Media/CMAG, Nov. 14 2012/ Washington Post Toomey (R) Johnson (R) Doug Sosnik 20 Losses suffered in congress, governorships and state legislatures by the party of the incumbent 2-term president. - 7 US Senate Seats - 9 US Senate Seats - 13 US Senate Seats - 45 US House Seats - 42 US House Seats - 69 US House Seats - 11 Governorships - 7 Governorships - 11 Governorships - 18 State Legislative Chambers - 524 Legislative Seats - 13 State Legislative Chambers - 324 Legislative Seats - 30 State Legislative Chambers - 932 Legislative Seats Doug Sosnik 21 Trifecta States: One Party Controls the Legislature and the Governor’s Mansion DEM Trifecta (7) GA (OPEN) GOP Trifecta (24) Split (19) Source: Ballotpedia Doug Sosnik 22 2016 Gubernatorial Races: 4 Republicans & 8 Democrats are up for re-election Solid/Likely Dem Lean Dem Toss-up Lean GOP Solid/Likely GOP WA ND MT NY OR CA WI SC ID NH VT DE PA OH NV IL IN WV UT CO OK AZ KY MO KS NC SC AR MS LA GA GA AL (OPEN) FL Open Seat (5 Dem, 1 Rep) AK HI Source: Cook Political 2/2/2016 Doug Sosnik 23 2016 Battleground State Legislatures Source: Ballotpedia STATE CHAMBER (Current Control) Colorado Senate (R)/House (D) Iowa Senate (D)/House (R) Kentucky House (D) Maine Senate (R)/House (D) Michigan House (R) Minnesota House (R) Nevada Senate (R) New Hampshire Senate (R)/House (R) New Mexico Senate (D)/House (R) New York Senate (R) Washington Senate (R)/House (D) West Virginia Senate (R) Wisconsin Senate (R) Doug Sosnik 24 THANK YOU Doug Sosnik February 11, 2016