National Survey of Hispanic Voters February 2016 This Washington Post-Univision poll was conducted by telephone February 11-18, 2016, among 1,200 Hispanic voters in the U.S., including landline and cell phone respondents. Results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by Bendixen & Amandi International with the Tarrance Group. A national list of registered voters was used to sample voters identified as Hispanic on official records or who have Spanish first or last names. Respondents were screened to include only those identifying as Hispanic. *= less than 0.5 percent (Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended at the end.) 1. To make sure that we have a representative sample, can you please tell me your age – are you under 18, between 18 and 34, between 35 and 49, between 50 and 64, or are you 65 and older? Under 18 Between 18 and 34 Between 35 and 49 Between 50 and 64 65 or older Refused TERMINATE CONTINUE CONTINUE CONTINUE CONTINUE TERMINATE 2/18/16 35% 28% 23% 14% - 2. Do you consider yourself to be Hispanic or Latino? Yes No Don’t know/No answer CONTINUE TERMINATE TERMINATE 2/18/16 100% 3. Would you prefer to be interviewed in Spanish or in English? Spanish English CONTINUE TO SPANISH VERSION CONTINUE TO ENGLISH VERSION 2/18/16 35% 65% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 1 4. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)? Right Direction Wrong Track Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 33% 54% 12% 5. How closely are you following the 2016 presidential race: very closely, somewhat closely, not so closely, or not at all? Very closely Somewhat closely Not so closely Not at all Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 38% 37% 19% 6% * 6a. How likely are you to vote in your state’s presidential primary election or caucus this year? very likely, somewhat likely or somewhat unlikely or not at all likely? Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Not at all likely Already voted VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 74% 17% 3% 6% * 1% [IF NOT ALREADY VOTED, n=1,199] 7. And if you voted, would you participate in the Democratic or Republican primary or caucus in your state? 2/18/16 Democratic Primary/Caucus 61% Republican Primary/Caucus 20% Don’t know/No answer 19% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 2 [ASKED OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] 8a. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary or caucus in your state were held today and the candidates were , whom would you support? ---------------2/18/16-----------------Without Bush * With Bush Marco Rubio 34% 27% Donald Trump 22% 22% Ted Cruz 21% 19% Ben Carson 4% 4% John Kasich 3% 3% Jeb Bush NA 12% Would not vote VOL. * * Other VOL. * * Don’t know/No answer 15% 13% *Jeb Bush supporters assigned to second choice 6/25/15 22% 7% 12% NA NA 38% NA 13% 8% 8XX. Which candidate would be your 2nd choice?________ Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Jeb Bush John Kasich Donald Trump Ben Carson Would not vote VOLUNTEERED Other VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 26% 20% 13% 9% 6% 4% 23% [ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS] 8b. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary or caucus in your state were held today and the candidates were , whom would you support? Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Would not voteVOLUNTEERED Other VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 57% 28% 1% 1% 13% 6/25/15 73% 3% NA 14% 10% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 3 9. Thinking about the general election for president in November, how important is it for you to vote? very important, somewhat important, somewhat unimportant, or not important at all? Very important Somewhat important Somewhat unimportant Not at all important Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 86% 9% 1% 1% 3% 10. In the general election in November, will you definitely support the (Democratic Party’s) candidate for president no matter who it is, definitely support for the (Republican Party’s) candidate no matter who it is, OR are you unsure which party you will support at this point? Definitely support Democrat Definitely support Republican Unsure which party Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 51% 14% 32% 3% 10X. Regardless of your political affiliation, if the November 2016 election were held today, who would be your first choice? Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders Marco Rubio Ted Cruz Donald Trump Jeb Bush Ben Carson John Kasich Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 39% 19% 8% 7% 7% 4% 1% 1% 14% 10XX. Which candidate would be your 2nd choice?________ Bernie Sanders Hillary Clinton Marco Rubio Jeb Bush Ted Cruz Ben Carson John Kasich Donald Trump Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 20% 14% 11% 10% 8% 3% 3% 3% 28% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 4 [ROTATE QUESTIONS 11-12] 11. How much do you trust elected leaders in the DEMOCRATIC PARTY to represent your views? Very much, Somewhat, Not too much, Not at all 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Very much Somewhat Not too much Not at all Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 23% 42% 16% 16% 3% 12. How much do you trust elected leaders in the REPUBLICAN PARTY to represent your views? Very much, Somewhat, Not too much, Not at all 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Very much Somewhat Not too much Not at all Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 9% 29% 25% 33% 4% 13. Do you think President Obama’s policies have made things (BETTER) for most Hispanic Americans, (WORSE), or MADE NO DIFFERENCE. 1. Better 2. Worse 3. No Difference 9. Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 43% 20% 33% 5% 14. If a candidate for president wanted to continue President Obama’s overall policies, would you be more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn’t it make a difference in your vote? 1. More likely to vote 2. Less likely to vote 3. Wouldn’t make a difference 9. Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 34% 30% 31% 5% 15. If a candidate for president wanted to continue President Obama’s policy on deportation enforcement for undocumented immigrants, would you be more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them, or wouldn’t it make a difference in your vote? 1. More likely to vote 2. Less likely to vote 3. Wouldn’t make a difference 9. Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 17% 48% 29% 6% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 5 16. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job coping with the main problems this nation faces over the next few years? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 55% 24% 3% 8% 10% [RANDOMIZE 17-20] (HALF SAMPLE A) 17A. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job improving the lives of Hispanics living in the United States? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 62% 18% 3% 6% 11% (HALF SAMPLE B) 17B. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job handling the economy? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 51% 28% 5% 8% 8% (FULL SAMPLE) 18. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job handling immigration issues? Registered voters 2/18/16 6/25/15* 7/19/15** 1. Democratic Party 60% 60% 39% 2. Republican Party 19% 20% 41% 3. Both VOLUNTEERED 4% 4% 1% 4. Neither VOLUNTEERED 9% 10% 14% 9. Don’t know/No answer 9% 6% 6% * 6/25/15 Wording: Which political party do you think is more in line with your views on immigration policy – the Democratic Party or the Republican Party? **Washington Post-ABC News poll Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 6 (HALF SAMPLE A) 19A. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job handling healthcare? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 62% 20% 2% 6% 10% (HALF SAMPLE B) 19B. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job handling the issue of gay marriage? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 50% 15% 4% 10% 20% (HALF SAMPLE B) 20. Which political party, the DEMOCRATS or the REPUBLICANS, do you trust to do a better job handling the threat of terrorism? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Democratic Party Republican Party Both VOLUNTEERED Neither VOLUNTEERED Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 38% 33% 11% 7% 11% FAVORABILITY RATINGS [Order of questions 21-25 randomized] 21. Hillary Clinton 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer 2/18/16 41% 26% 9% 22% 1% 2% 6/25/15 44% 24% 8% 18% 6%* NA Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 7 22. Ted Cruz 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer 2/18/16 12% 27% 16% 29% 10% 6% 6/25/15 8% 18% 13% 23% 38%* NA 2/18/16 16% 29% 16% 21% 11% 7% 6/25/15 13% 22% 14% 20% 31%* NA 2/18/16 29% 31% 9% 14% 12% 6% 6/25/15 5% 11% 8% 8% 68% NA 2/18/16 8% 9% 9% 72% 1% 2% 7/13/16 6% 11% 15% 56% 12% NA 23. Marco Rubio 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer 24. Bernie Sanders 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer 25. Donald Trump 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 8 25a. Jeb Bush (HALF SAMPLE) 1. Very favorable opinion 2. Somewhat favorable opinion 3. Somewhat unfavorable opinion 4. Very unfavorable opinion 5. Do not recognize 9. No answer *Combined do not recognize/no answer 2/18/16 14% 30% 19% 25% 6% 5% 6/25/15 11% 25% 16% 29% 19%* NA 25b. John Kasich (HALF SAMPLE) 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. Very favorable opinion Somewhat favorable opinion Somewhat unfavorable opinion Very unfavorable opinion Do not recognize No answer 2/18/16 9% 19% 10% 10% 41% 11% Now, I’m going to read you some potential match-ups for the presidential election in November 2016. For each one, please tell me which candidate you would be more likely to vote for if the election were held today. [Order of questions 26-28 randomized, and order of candidates within questions randomized] 26. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz, who would you vote for? 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Ted Cruz 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 65% 27% 8% 6/25/15 69% 22% 9% 27. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for? 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Donald Trump 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 73% 16% 11% 7/19/15 70% 16% 14% 28. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for? 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Marco Rubio 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 61% 31% 8% 6/25/15 66% 25% 9% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 9 28a. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Jeb Bush, who would you vote for? 1. Hillary Clinton 2. Jeb Bush 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 63% 28% 10% 6/25/15 64% 27% 9% 28b. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican John Kasich, who would you vote for? 1. Hillary Clinton 2. John Kasich 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 66% 23% 10% [Order of questions 29-31b randomized, and order of candidates within questions randomized] 29. Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Ted Cruz, who would you vote for? 1. Bernie Sanders 2. Ted Cruz 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 61% 28% 11% 30. Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Donald Trump, who would you vote for? 1. Bernie Sanders 2. Donald Trump 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 72% 16% 12% 31. Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Marco Rubio, who would you vote for? 1. Bernie Sanders 2. Marco Rubio 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 57% 33% 10% 31a. Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican Jeb Bush, who would you vote for? 1. Bernie Sanders 2. Jeb Bush 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 58% 32% 10% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 10 31b. Democrat Bernie Sanders and Republican John Kasich , who would you vote for? 1. Bernie Sanders 2. John Kasich 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 59% 22% 19% 32. Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote for President in November 2016? [READ LIST - ROTATE RESPONSES] Jobs and the economy Immigration Education Healthcare Terrorism Foreign policy Global Climate Change Same Sex Marriage Decriminalization of marijuana Other Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 33% 17% 16% 11% 9% 4% 3% 1% NA 3% 2% 6/25/15* 36% 13% 18% 14% NA 7% 4% 1% 2% 1% 4% 33. All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, or someone who opposes it? 1. Supports 2. Opposes 9. Don’t know/No answer *Washington Post-ABC News poll 2/18/16 82% 11% 7% Compare: National registered voters* 3/29/15 49% 46% 5% [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS PATH TO CITIZENSHIP] 34a. Would you consider voting for a candidate who OPPOSES a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants even if you agreed with them on other issues, OR is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 38% 53% 9% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 11 [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO OPPOSES PATH TO CITIZENSHIP] Q34b. Would you consider voting for a candidate who SUPPORTS a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants even if you agreed with them on other issues, or is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 40% 48% 12% 35. All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who wants to keep the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, passed in 2010, or someone who wants to repeal that law? 1. Keep 2. Repeal 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 54% 35% 12% [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS KEEPING THE FEDERAL HEALTH CARE LAW] 36a. Would you consider voting for a candidate who wants to repeal the Affordable Care Act also known as Obamacare even if you agreed with them on other issues, or is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 34% 59% 7% [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS REPEALING FEDERAL HEALTH CARE LAW:] 36b. Would you consider voting for a candidate who wants to keep the Affordable Care Act also known as Obamacare even if you agreed with them on other issues, or is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 37% 57% 6% 37. All else equal, would you like the next president to be someone who supports raising the federal minimum wage from seven dollars and 25 cents per hour to fifteen dollars per hour, or someone who opposes raising the minimum wage to fifteen dollars per hour? 1. Support 2. Oppose 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 71% 21% 8% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 12 [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO SUPPORTS RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE] 38a. Would you consider voting for a candidate who opposes raising the minimum wage to 15 dollars per hour even if you agreed with them on other issues, or is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 47% 44% 9% [IF WANT CANDIDATE WHO OPPOSES RAISING THE MINIMUM WAGE] 38b. Would you consider voting for a candidate who supports raising the minimum wage to 15 dollars per hour even if you agreed with them on other issues, or is this issue so important that you would NOT consider voting for such a candidate? 1. Would consider supporting 2. Would NOT consider supporting 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 45% 47% 8% 39. Overall, do you support or oppose the United States ending the trade embargo with Cuba? That would allow U.S. companies to do business in Cuba and Cuban companies to do business here. Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? 2/18/16 1. Strongly support 32% 2. Somewhat support 32% 3. Somewhat oppose 9% 4. Strongly oppose 10% 9. Don’t know / No answer 17% 40. How much have you heard about Donald Trump’s views on immigrants coming to the United States from Mexico and other countries – a lot, some, not too much or none at all? 1. A lot 2. Some 3. Not too much 4. None at all SKIP TO DEMOS 9. Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 73% 18% 3% 4% 1% 41. Are Donald Trump’s views on immigration offensive to you, or are they not offensive to you? Alternative wording 6/25/15: do you find Donald Trump’s comments offensive? 1. Offensive 2. Not offensive 2/18/16 74% 23% 6/25/15* 79% 18% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 13 9. Don’t know / No answer 2% 3% *6/25/15 wording: do you find Donald Trump’s comments offensive? Yes/No. 42. Do you believe that Donald Trump’s views on immigrants represent the views of The Republican Party overall or do you believe that those comments only represent the views of Trump? 1. Republican Party 2. Donald Trump 3. Both 9. Don’t know / No answer 2/18/16 19% 64% 10% 7% 6/25/15 14% 61% 18% 7% We are almost finished with our survey. I just have a few final questions left that are for classification purposes only. 43. What is the highest level of education that have you have completed – elementary school, high school graduate, two-year college or technical school graduate, or college graduate or higher degree? 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. Elementary school High school graduate/GED Two-year college or technical school/Some college College grad/Bachelor’s degree or higher Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 16% 28% 33% 23% * 6/25/15 12% 26% 27% 32% 3% 44. In what country were you born? 2/18/16 6/25/15 United States CONTINUE TO Q44a 52% 53% Mexico CONTINUE TO Q45 24% 22% South America CONTINUE TO Q45 7% 6% (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela) Puerto Rico CONTINUE TO Q45 5% 5% Central America CONTINUE TO Q45 5% 4% (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama) Dominican Republic CONTINUE TO Q45 3% 4% Cuba CONTINUE TO Q45 3% 4% Spain CONTINUE TO Q45 * Other/No answer 1% 2% 44a. In what country or countries were your parents and grandparents born? United States Mexico 43% 41% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 14 Puerto Rico 5% South America 3% (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela) Cuba 3% Central America 2% (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama) Dominican Republic 2% Spain 1% Other/No answer 1% 45. Do you consider yourself a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent? 1. 2. 3. 9. Democrat Republican Independent Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 56% 14% 27% 3% 6/25/15 58% 16% 26% NA [If not a Democrat or Republican.] 46. Which party do you lean toward? Democrat or Republican? 1. Democrat 2. Republican 9. Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 44% 26% 29% 47/48. Would you say your views on most political matters are liberal, moderate, or conservative? (If liberal/conservative): Would you say that you are very liberal/conservative or somewhat liberal/conservative? Liberal Very liberal Somewhat liberal Moderate Conservative Very conservative Somewhat conservative Don’t think in those terms Don’t know/No answer 2/18/16 27% 10% 16% 34% 31% 10% 20% 1% 7% 6/25/15 28% 12% 16% 35% 32% 11% 21% NA 5% 49. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often if ever do you attend religious services? At least once a week, almost every week, about once a month, less often than that or never. 1. At least once a week 38% Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 15 2. 3. 4. 5. 9. Almost every week About once a month Less often than that Never Don’t know/No Answer 13% 19% 17% 11% 1% This completes our survey. Thank you very much for your participation and have a nice day/evening. METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and Univision. The poll is a random sample of the continental United States, with interviews in English and Spanish. This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears in this document. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked. Phrases surrounded by parentheticals within questions indicate clauses that were randomly rotated for respondents. A stratified random sample of voters with traditionally Hispanic first, middle or last names was drawn from a national list of registered voters maintained by the firm L2 Political, which aggregates state-level voter records and matches them to commercially-available phone numbers. Professionally-trained interviewers called landlines and cellular phone numbers and asked for the registered voter in the sample by name. The final sample included 904 interviews completed on landlines and 296 interviews completed via cellular phones. Only voters who were successfully contacted by name and said they consider themselves Hispanic or Latino were interviewed. Because some Hispanic Americans do not have traditionally Hispanic names, a test was conducted to assess coverage of the ethnic name method by cross-referencing names with voters’ self-identified ethnicity according to Florida’s registration file. The analysis found 95 percent of all Hispanic-identified voters also had a first, middle or last name included in the list used to draw the national sample. This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. Results are weighted match the demographic makeup of Hispanic registered voters in the U.S. by sex, region, age, and education according to the 2014 Current Population Survey November Voting and Registration supplement. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.19 for this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision. Unweighted Group sample size All registered voters 1,200 Republican primary voters 240 Democratic primary voters 737 Half sample 599-601 Error margin +/- 3.0 points 7.0 4.0 4.5 Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 16 The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they produce. Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts polls. Washington Post-Univision national survey of Hispanic voters - February 2016 17