MEMO 
To:    
Interested Parties 
From:   
Robby Mook 
Date:   
March 2, 2016 
Re:   
State of the Race: Pledged Delegate Count 
 
Our campaign developed a strategy to secure the nomination and we’ve stuck to it.  That 
strategy was to maximize delegates.  We are proud to have met every goal we set so far and 
will continue to focus on each contest until we secure the nomination.  
 
By virtue of Sec. Clinton’s 8 wins on Super Tuesday—most of which were by significant 
margins—we now have a lead of more than 180 pledged delegates over Sen. Sanders. This 
lead is larger than any lead then-Senator Obama had at any point in the 2008 primary.  
 
As of last night, voters in states and regions that comprise roughly 25% of the pledged 
delegates towards the Democratic nomination will have had their voice heard in the process.  
Sec. Clinton won 7 Super Tuesday states: Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, 
Tennessee, Texas and Virginia. Hillary also won the pledged delegates of American Samoa.  
 
But what is most important is not just the number of states that Sec. Clinton has won but the 
large margin by which she is winning states. In the Democratic nomination, delegates are 
apportioned proportionally within a state, so larger margins of victory translate into a larger 
number of pledged delegates. Here are examples of why the margins of victory matter:  
 
• Hillary Clinton’s 56-point victory in Alabama is projected to net her 27 delegates.  
• In Georgia, where she won by 43 points, she is projected to net 44 delegates.  
• In Virginia, her 30-point margin of victory should result in 29 net delegates. 
• Finally, in Texas—one of the largest delegate-rich states in the process—Hillary’s 30point victory will net nearly 80 delegates.  
 
The table below highlights how larger margin of victories translate into larger delegate leads.  
 
Margin of Victory in 
States Hillary Won 
Iowa:                        0.3% 
Nevada:                     5% 
South Carolina:     48% 
Alabama:                 56% 
American Samoa:  
Arkansas:                40% 
Georgia:                   43% 
Massachusetts:        2% 
Tennessee:             30% 
Texas:                      30% 
Virginia:                  30% 

Projected Net 
Pledged 
Delegates for 
Hillary 
 2 
  5 
25 
27 
 2 
14 
44  
1 
19  
78 
 29 

Margin of Victory in 
States Bernie Won 
New Hampshire:         22% 
Vermont:                       86% 
Oklahoma:                    10% 
Colorado:                      18% 
Minnesota:                   20% 
  
  
 
  
  
  

 
 

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Projected Net 
Pledged 
Delegates for 
Bernie 
  6 
 16 
 8 
12 
16 
  
  
 
  
  
  

 These results point to a clear conclusion: with a pledged delegate lead of more than 180 and 
momentum on our side, we anticipate building on this lead even further making it 
increasingly difficult and eventually mathematically impossible for Sen. Sanders to catch up.   
 
There are two major reasons Sen. Sanders will have a very difficult time catching Sec. Clinton 
in pledged delegates:  
 
1) Winning Coalition: Sec. Clinton has established a sizeable lead in pledged delegates 
because of the strong base of support she has built with a winning coalition of voters.  
She has overwhelming support among voters in communities of color: African 
Americans, Latinos and Asian Americans Pacific Islanders in particular. She also has a 
dramatic advantage with women, and has been winning union households by doubledigit margins. On Super Tuesday, she also prevailed with white voters in a majority of 
states. 
 
This broad swath of support is based on a 40-year record of working to break down 
the barriers that are holding people back, particularly for individuals and communities 
that are often left out or left behind. This record of commitment is resulting in Hillary 
winning each of these groups by significant margins.  
 
Hillary won:  
o African American voters in South Carolina and Super Tuesday states by 
overwhelming margins, including winning them 93-5 in Alabama.  
o Latino voters in Texas by a resounding 42 points. 
o Women in six Super Tuesday states by more than 30 points.   
o Union households in Nevada by double-digits.  
o More votes from white voters than Sen. Sanders did across all Super Tuesday 
states, except Vermont.  
 
Sec. Clinton also won more votes last night than any candidate in either party, securing 
the support of more than 3.5 million Americans.  
 
Despite trying, Sen. Sanders has not been able to significantly cut into Sec. Clinton’s 
support with some of these core groups. For example, Sen. Sanders spent $1.7 million 
on TV and radio, and had more than 200 organizers in South Carolina but still lost 
women by 58 points and African Americans by 72 points.  
 
This strength of support is critical to preventing Sen. Sanders from being able to catch 
Sec. Clinton in pledged delegates; these groups will continue to represent a significant 
portion of the electorate in remaining primaries, and Sec. Clinton’s strength with these 
constituencies ensures that she will keep racking up large numbers of pledged 
delegates, even in states she might lose.   
 
It is also important to note that these constituencies are not only critical to winning the 
Democratic nomination but will also be central to how a Democrat wins in November, 
and a candidate that starts with a deep base of support will have an advantage in the 
general election.  
 
 

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2) Proportionality: The same dynamic—proportional allotment of delegates—that helped 
Sec. Clinton build up a strong lead, makes it very difficult for Sen. Sanders to catch up.  
 
As she has to date, Sec. Clinton will continue to win diverse states by large margins—
enabling her to add to her pledged delegate lead—and she will compete in every state 
with a strategy uniquely tailored to each state so that Sen. Sanders cannot net too many 
delegates anywhere.  
 
In fact, one example from Super Tuesday perfectly captures the challenges Sen. 
Sanders faces. Our targeting may allow us to net more delegates out of just one 
congressional district in Alabama (7th district) as Sen. Sanders netted from his victory 
in the state of Oklahoma.  
All of this simply underscores that in order to catch up, Sen. Sanders doesn’t just have 
to start winning a few states, but he needs to start winning everywhere and by large 
margins. This is why it is very difficult for him to close the large gap in delegates.  

 
Here is Tad Devine, Sen. Sanders’ chief strategist, making this same point in October:  
 
“[proportional representation] is a great advantage to anybody who gets ahead. Ask 
Obama, ask Jimmy Carter in 1980, the same thing happened there—you get ahead, 
you can’t lose.” [emphasis added] 
 
It is worth noting that none of this analysis takes into account superdelegates. Sec. Clinton’s 
sizeable lead is among pledged delegates. Among superdelegates, Sec. Clinton has a lead of 
more than 400.  
 
Strategic Approach 
From the start of this campaign, we have maintained a clear and consistent strategy to 
methodically amass pledged delegates in every contest to ensure that Sec. Clinton will secure 
our party’s nomination. We have stuck to that plan—fighting for votes in every state, even 
when polls showed us down. This approach has paid dividends as Sec. Clinton is now on a 
clear path to the nomination.  
 
By comparison, Sen. Sanders failed to compete in delegate-rich states such as Georgia, 
Tennessee, Texas and Virginia, enabling us to build large margins of victory and, as a result, 
net larger numbers of pledged delegates.  
 
Sen. Sanders’ campaign continues to pursue a strategy focused on states rather than delegates. 
For example, Sen. Sanders is competing very aggressively in Michigan, where he has already 
spent $3 million on TV. We are also competing to win in Michigan and feel good about where 
that race stands, but even if Sen. Sanders were able to eke out a victory there, we would still 
net more delegates in Mississippi, which holds its election on the same night.  The end result is 
that Sen. Sanders will spend millions of dollars in Michigan but not make any net gain in 
pledged delegates because he isn’t competing in states like Mississippi.  
 
The disparity in strategies is reflected in the amount both campaigns spent on TV and radio in 
Super Tuesday states as compared to the number of pledged delegates won. Our campaign 
spent $10.5 million to secure more than 500 delegates. Sen. Sanders’ campaign spent a 
 
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 comparable amount at $9 million but only secured 350 delegates, which is ultimately the 
margin of difference in the race. The difference is that we deployed our resources strategically 
and efficiently in states and media markets that would allow us to maximize the number of 
delegates we netted on Super Tuesday. That strategy paid off. 
 
Looking Ahead 
We have no doubt that as long as Sen. Sanders remains in the primary, he will continue to win 
elections along the way, but it will make little difference to Hillary’s pledged delegate lead. 
This upcoming Saturday will reinforce this point: although we continue to fight for every vote, 
Sen. Sanders has clear advantages and is investing heavily in two upcoming caucuses 
(Nebraska and Kansas). But even if Sen. Sanders does win in these states, we anticipate being 
able to win Louisiana by a larger margin and emerge from the day with more net delegates.  
 
In other words, over the upcoming weeks, we intend to steadily add to Hillary Clinton’s 
already sizeable lead in delegates, and as we do, it will become harder and harder 
mathematically for Sen. Sanders to ever catch up.   

 

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