Florida Republican
Presidential Primary Survey
March 2016
This Washington Post-Univision poll was conducted on March 2-5 among a random sample of 450
Republican presidential primary voters, including interviews on land-line and cellular phones
conducted in English and Spanish. The survey included an oversample of Hispanic likely voters,
which were weighted back to an estimate of their share of the primary electorate. The margin of
sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 5.5 points for overall sample; the error margin is
9.5 points among the sample of 164 Hispanic Republican voters Sampling, data collection and
tabulation was conducted by Bendixen & Amandi International and the Tarrance Group. A list of
Florida registered voters was used to sample voters.

(Full methodological details appended at end.)

Sample

Number of Interviews

Florida likely presidential 450 Republicans
primary voters

Language of Interviews
English, Spanish

Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding

SCREENS
1. Would you prefer to be interviewed in Spanish or in English?
1. Spanish
2. English

6%
94%

2. To make sure that we have a representative sample, can you please tell me your age –
are you under 18, between 18 and 34, between 35 and 49, between 50 and 64, or are you
65 and older?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Under 18
Between 18 and 34
Between 35 and 49
Between 50 and 64
65 or older
Refused

TERMINATE
CONTINUE
CONTINUE
CONTINUE
CONTINUE
TERMINATE

7%
26%
31%
36%

3. Are you registered as a Democrat, a Republican, or an Independent?
1.
2.
3.
9.

Democrat
Republican
Independent
Don’t know/No answer

CONTINUE
CONTINUE
TERMINATE
TERMINATE

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

100%

 4. How likely are you to vote in Florida’s presidential primary election this year? very
likely, somewhat likely or somewhat unlikely or not at all likely?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Very likely
Somewhat likely
Somewhat unlikely
Not at all likely
Already voted
Don’t know/No answer

CONTINUE
CONTINUE
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
VOLUNTEERED

90%
3%
7%

5A. The media in Florida generally classifies people as Black, White, Hispanic, Asian or
Another Race. Which do you consider yourself to be?
1.
2.
3.
4.

Black
White
Hispanic
Asian/Mixed Race/Other

2%
80%
15%
3%

5B. Are you of Cuban or Hispanic Descent?
1 Yes, Cuban
2 Yes, Other Hispanic
3. No

8%
7%
85%

6. Do you think things in this country (are generally going in the right direction) or do
you feel things (have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track)?
1. Right Direction
2. Wrong Track
9. Don’t know/No answer

5%
93%
2%

2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
7B. If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Florida were held today and the
candidates were
, whom would you support?
[IF ALREADY VOTED]
Confidentially and for statistical purposes only, which candidate did you support in your
state’s primary or caucus?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
John Kasich
Other
Don’t know/No answer

19%
31%
38%
4%
1%
6%

7B2. Which candidate would be your 2nd choice?________
1.
2.
3.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

30%
24%
15%

 4.
John Kasich
9. Don’t know/No answer

14%
16%

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

[RANDOMIZE QUESITONS]

Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of [NAME]? Do you feel that
way VERY or SOMEWHAT?
10B. Ted Cruz
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Very favorable opinion
Somewhat favorable opinion
Somewhat unfavorable opinion
Very unfavorable opinion
Do not recognize
No answer

21%
36%
18%
17%
2%
7%

11B. Marco Rubio
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Very favorable opinion
Somewhat favorable opinion
Somewhat unfavorable opinion
Very unfavorable opinion
Do not recognize
No answer

28%
34%
18%
13%
1%
5%

12B. Donald Trump
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
9.

Very favorable opinion
Somewhat favorable opinion
Somewhat unfavorable opinion
Very unfavorable opinion
Do not recognize
No answer

27%
30%
15%
24%
1%
4%

[RANDOMIZE NAMES & RANDOMIZE QUESTIONS]
14B. Thinking about the three Republican candidates for President, –Ted Cruz, Marco
Rubio and Donald Trump – who do you think is more honest and trustworthy?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

21%
34%
30%
8%
8%

 15B. Who do you think has a better personality and temperament to serve effectively as
president?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

25%
39%
26%
7%
3%

16B. Who do you think has a better chance of getting elected president in November
2016?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

15%
17%
60%
5%
3%

17B. Who do you think would do more to bring needed change to Washington?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

18%
21%
55%
5%
2%

18B. Who do you think is closer to you on the issues?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

21%
32%
39%
4%
4%

[RANDOMIZE NAMES & RANDOMIZE QUESTIONS]
19B. Again, thinking about the three Republican candidates for President, –Ted Cruz,
Marco Rubio and Donald Trump – who do you trust most to handle the economy?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

16%
22%
56%
3%
3%

20B. Who do you trust most to handle immigration issues?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

21%
29%
45%
4%
2%

 21B. Who do you trust most to handle the threat of terrorism?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

21%
25%
45%
6%
3%

22B. Who do you trust most to handle healthcare?
1.
2.
3.
6.
9.

Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Don’t know
No answer

23%
29%
36%
7%
5%

23B. If the Republican primary for the US Senate seat from Florida were held today and
the candidates were [RANDOMIZE NAMES] Carlos Beruff, Ron DeSantis, David Jolly,
Carlos Lopez-Cantera and Todd Wilcox, for whom would you vote?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
9.

Carlos Beruff
Ron DeSantis
David Jolly
Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Todd Wilcox
Don’t know
No answer

*%
6%
5%
6%
2%
74%
6%

24B. If he does not win the Florida Presidential Primary on March 15th, do you believe that
Marco Rubio should or should not suspend his campaign for President?
1.
2.
3.
9.

Should suspend his campaign
Should not suspend his campaign
Don’t know
No answer

59%
33%
6%
1%

ELECTORAL MOTIVATION
25. Which one of the following issues will be the MOST important in deciding your vote
for President in November 2016?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

Jobs and the economy
Immigration
Healthcare
Foreign policy
Global Climate Change
Same Sex Marriage
Education
Terrorism
Other

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

43%
6%
7%
8%
1%
1%
2%
27%
3%

 99. Don’t know/No answer

2%

Policy support
26. With regard to the current opening on the Supreme Court, after President Obama
nominates someone do you believe that the U.S. Senate should vote on President
Obama’s nominee to fill the position or should the Senate delay action on the vacancy
until after the next president takes office?
1. Vote
2. Delay
3. Don’t know
9. No answer

26%
72%
3%
*

27. Donald Trump has proposed banning Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering
the United States for the time being. He says this would improve security against
terrorism. Others say security would not be improved, and it’s wrong to bar people from
the United States because of their religion. What’s your opinIon – would you support a
ban on Muslims entering the United States, or do you this would be the wrong thing to
do? Do you feel that way STRONGLY or SOMEWHAT?
1. Strongly support
2. Somewhat support
3. Somewhat wrong thing to do
4. Strongly wrong thing to do
5. Don’t know
9. No answer

39%
18%
18%
17%
5%
2%

28. Do you approve or disapprove of President Obama’s plan to visit Cuba this month?
He’d be the first sitting President to do so in 88 years.
1. Approve
2. Disapprove
5. Don’t know/ No opinion
9. No answer/Refused

33%
59%
7%
1%

29. Overall, do you support or oppose ending the so-called “wet foot, dry foot” policy,
which allows Cuban refugees to stay in the U.S. if they reach U.S. soil? Do you feel that
way strongly, or somewhat?
1. Strongly support
2. Somewhat support
3. Somewhat oppose
4. Strongly oppose
5. Don’t know
9. No answer

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

28%
23%
15%
25%
7%
2%

 30. The United States territory of Puerto Rico has announced that it is close to defaulting
on $72 Billion worth of debt. Overall, do you support or oppose providing financial
assistance to help Puerto Rico pay off its debt? Do you feel that way strongly, or
somewhat?
1. Strongly support
2. Somewhat support
3. Somewhat oppose
4. Strongly oppose
5. Don’t know
9. No answer

10%
18%
18%
44%
8%
2%

DEMOGRAPHICS
We are almost finished with our survey. I just have a few final questions left that are for
classification purposes only.
31. What is the highest level of education that you have completed – some high school or
less, high school graduate, two-year college or technical school graduate, or college
graduate or higher degree?
1. Some high school or less
2. High School Graduate/GED
3. Two-year college or technical school graduate /
Some college / Associate Degree
4. College graduate or higher degree/Bachelor’s
degree or higher
9. Don’t know/No answer

4%
13%
29%
53%
*

32. In what country were you born?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

United States
CONTINUE TO Q32a
89%
Puerto Rico
CONTINUE TO Q33
2%
Mexico
CONTINUE TO Q33
*
Central America
CONTINUE TO Q33
*
(Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama)
South America
CONTINUE TO Q33
1%
(Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela)
Dominican Republic
CONTINUE TO Q33
*
Cuba
CONTINUE TO Q33
7%
Spain
CONTINUE TO Q33
*
Other/No answer
*

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

 32a. In what country or countries were your parents and grandparents born?
[MULTIPLE RESPONSES ACCEPTED]
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.

United States
80%
Puerto Rico
1%
Mexico
*
Central America
*
(Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama)
South America
1%
(Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Venezuela)
Dominican Republic
*
Cuba
1%
Spain
*
Other/No answer
16%

This completes our survey. Thank you very much for your participation and have a nice
day/evening.

[CODE ONLY – DO NOT ASK]
A. Gender
1. Male
2. Female

48%
52%

B. REGION
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Miami/South Florida
South/Central Florida
Tampa Bay Area
Orlando,Central Florida
North Florida/Panhandle

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016

16%
20%
17%
22%
25%

 METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and Univision. This
questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order as appears
in this document.
A stratified random sample of registered Democrats and Republicans was drawn from a
list of Florida registered voters maintained by the firm L2 Political, which
aggregates state-level voter records and matches them to commercially-available phone
numbers. Professionally-trained interviewers called landlines and cellular phone
numbers and asked for the registered voter in the sample by name. The final Democratic
primary voters sample included 356 interviews completed on landlines and 93 interviews
completed via cellular phones; the Republican primary voter sample included 355
interviews on landlines and 95 on cellular phones.
Only voters who were successfully contacted by name and said they were registered with
the Democratic or Republican Party were interviewed. An oversample of Hispanic voters
was drawn among those who were identified as Hispanic on voter records or who have
traditionally Hispanic first, last or middle names. Only those who identified as
Hispanic in the survey are classified as such in results. Prior to fielding, a test
was conducted to assess coverage of the ethnic name method by cross-referencing names
with voters’ self-identified ethnicity according to Florida’s registration file. The
analysis found 95 percent of all Hispanic-identified voters also had a first, middle
or last name included on the list frame.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the
survey sample from characteristics of the primary voter population. Results were
weighted by sex, age, region and race/ethnicity to match an estimate of the Democratic
likely voter population based on the 2008 Democratic primary electorate according to
voter records as well as recent changes in voter demographics. Republican primary
benchmarks were based on the 2012 primary electorate and recent changes to Republicans
voter demographics.
All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which
is 1.69 for the Democratic sample and 1.52 for the Democratic sample. The design
effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample,
and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting
procedures. Surveys that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision.
The Washington Post is a charter member of AAPOR’s Transparency Initiative, which
recognizes organizations that disclose key methodological details on the research they
produce.
Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington Post conducts
polls.

FLORIDA SURVEY OF LIKELY PRIMARY VOTERS –2016