This Washington Post-University of Maryland poll was conducted by telephone
March 30 - April 3, 2016, among a random sample of 1,503 residents of Maryland.
Interviews were conducted by live interviewers on both conventional and
cellular phones, reached through a combination of random digit dialing of
residential telephone numbers and a registered voter list sample. Sampling,
data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York.
LV=Likely voters in April 2016 primary
RV=Registered voters
*= less than 0.5 percent
Sample size and margin of sampling error for survey groups:
Md. adults
Dem RV*
Dem LV*
Rep RV
Rep LV
Sample size
1,503
741
539
407
283
Error margin
3.0
4.5
5.5
6.0
7.5
*Includes independent/other party registrants who plan to change registration
to Dem/Rep before April primary.
(Full methodological details and sampling error margins for subgroups appended
at the end.)
1. Do you think things in the state of Maryland are generally going in the
right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the
wrong track?
4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15
2/16/14
2/24/13
10/15/12
1/26/12
10/22/10
9/26/10
5/6/10
10/20/08
10/22/07
10/26/06
6/25/06
1/7/04
10/24/02
10/22/98
6/17/98
12/19/93

RV
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
RV

Right direction
54
52
48
48
41
48
47
46
40
39
31
46
57
44
57
42
54
53
33

Wrong track
36
38
40
43
48
44
44
48
49
49
63
47
39
50
35
51
36
34
56

No opinion
10
10
11
9
12
8
9
6
11
12
6
7
5
6
9
7
10
13
11

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is handling his job as
governor of Maryland?

4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
66
30
36
61
28
33
42
18
24

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
19
11
8
22
13
9
24
14
10

No
op
15
18
34

48
39
41
41
36

11
7
10
9
9

Compare to: Martin O’Malley
10/5/14 RV
2/16/14
2/24/13
10/15/12 RV
1/26/12

41
55
49
49
55

14
21
16
18
16

27
33
33
31
39

14
12
13
14
15

34
27
28
28
21

 10/22/10 RV*
55
9/26/10
57
5/6/10
54
10/20/08 RV
53
10/22/07
53
*“Regardless of how you

21
20
17
14
12
may vote…”

34
37
37
39
40

30
21
21

25
36
42

9
16
14

29
38
41

36
33
34
37
36

15
16
17
16
18

21
17
17
21
19

9
11
12
10
11

Bob Ehrlich
10/26/06 LV
6/25/06 RV
1/7/04
All

55
56
62

42
41
28

19
21
17

23
20
11

3
3
10

Parris Glendening:
10/24/02 LV
10/22/98 LV
6/17/98 LV

37
54
55

58
40
36

22
21
19

37
19
18

4
6
9

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Larry Hogan is handling [ITEM]?
4/3/16 - Summary Table*
----- Approve ---NET
Strg
Smwht
58
22
36
55
24
31
51
20
31
54
26
29
57
25
33

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

The economy
Taxes
Education
Transportation
Working with Democrats in
the Maryland legislature
f. Heroin abuse in Maryland
35
17
18
*Each item asked of half sample of respondents.

--- Disapprove --NET
Smwht
Strg
28
15
13
26
11
15
29
12
17
23
11
12
19
12
8
25

8

17

No
op
14
19
19
23
23
41

Trend:
a. The economy
4/3/16
10/11/15

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
58
22
36
59
24
35

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
28
15
13
25
12
13

No
opin
14
16

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
55
24
31
49
22
27

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
26
11
15
31
12
19

No
opin
19
19

b. Taxes

4/3/16
10/11/15

Compare to: State budget and taxes
Martin O’Malley
1/26/12
41
10/22/10 RV
44
9/26/10 RV
45
5/6/10
RV
46
10/22/07
40

11
NA

31
NA

48
46
43
40
49

19
NA

28
NA

11
11
12
14
10

c. Education

4/3/16

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
51
20
31

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
29
12
17

No
opin
19

 10/11/15

47

22

25

32

11

20

22

d. Transportation
-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
54
26
29
52
26
26

4/3/16
10/11/15

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
23
11
12
26
11
15

No
opin
23
22

e. Working with Democrats in the Maryland legislature
-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
57
25
33
54
23
31

4/3/16
10/11/15

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
19
12
8
18
7
10

No
opin
23
28

f. No trend
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Democrats in the Maryland state
legislature are doing their job?

4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15

-------- Approve -------NET
Strongly
Somewhat
48
17
31
48
17
31
49
17
32

------- Disapprove -----NET
Somewhat
Strongly
39
13
26
38
14
24
43
19
25

No
op
13
14
7

PARTY REGISTRATION Are you registered to vote in Maryland, or not? (IF YES) Are
you registered as (a Democrat), (a Republican), an independent or something
else? [IF INDEPENDENT, SOMETHING ELSE, DK/NA) Do you plan to change your
registration to the Democratic or Republican Party in order to vote in the
presidential and Senate primaries on April 26, or do you not plan to change
your registration? [Party registration for voter list sample respondents based
on record]

4/3/16

------------------Registered voters---------------Democrat
Republican
Indep.
Other
No opinion
47
23
11
1
2

Not
registered
16

No
op.
0

5. (AMONG DEM/REP REGISTERED VOTERS) Would you say you are following this
year’s U.S. Senate race in the state of Maryland very closely, fairly closely,
not too closely, or not closely at all?

4/3/16 RV

----- Closely ----NET
Very
Fairly
52
15
37

------ Not closely ------NET
Not too
Not at all
48
28
20

No
op
*

6. (AMONG DEM/REP REGISTERED VOTERS) This year’s [Democratic/Republican]
primary election for U.S. Senate and President will be held on April 26th. A
lot of people end up not being able to vote because they aren’t registered,
they just don’t have time, or some other reason. Keeping these things in mind,
I'd like you to rate the chances that you will vote in the primary election on
Tuesday April 26th. Are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote,
are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

4/3/16

----- Will vote ---NET
Certain
Prob
88
76
12

----------- Less likely -----------NET
50-50
<50-50
Will not vote
12
8
3
1

No
op
*

 7. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS)If the Democratic primary election for U.S.
Senate in Maryland were held today and the candidates were (Donna Edwards) and
(Chris Van Hollen), for whom would you vote? Which candidate are you leaning
toward?
NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE AMONG LIKELY VOTERS AND REGISTERED VOTERS
4/3/16
10/11/15
LV
RV
RV*
Donna Edwards
44
44
19
Chris Van Hollen
40
35
21
Elijah Cummings
NA
NA
34
Other (vol.)
*
1
*
None (vol.)
7
8
8
Not vote (vol.)
0
1
2
No opinion
9
10
15
*Among Democratic-leaning registered voters.
8. (AMONG REGISTERED REPUBLICANS) If the Republican primary election for U.S.
Senate in Maryland were held today and the candidates were (Richard Douglas),
(Chrys Kefalas), (Joseph Hooe) and (Kathy Szeliga), for whom would you vote?
Which candidate are you leaning toward?
4/3/16 – NET LEANED VOTE PREFERENCE

Kathy Szeliga
Chrys Kefalas
Richard Douglas
Joseph Hooe
Other (Vol.)
None (Vol.)
Not vote (Vol.)
No opinion

4/3/16
LV
RV
15
15
11
10
9
8
3
5
1
1
15
14
0
2
46
44

9/10. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Overall, do you have a favorable or
unfavorable impression of [ITEM]? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat?
4/3/16 – Summary Table

a. Chris Van Hollen
b. Donna Edwards

---- Favorable --NET
Strg
Smwht
56
22
34
64
26
38

--- Unfavorable -NET
Smwht
Strg
16
12
3
15
11
4

No
opin
28
21

11. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) In your opinion, how well does the phrase
[ITEM] describe Chris Van Hollen? Not well at all, not too well, pretty well or
extremely well? [Responses read in reverse for random half of sample]
4/3/16 – Summary table
a. he is honest and
trustworthy
b. he really cares
about people like you
c. he would be
effective at getting
things done as a

------- Well -----NET
Extr
Pretty
61
16
46

-------- Not well -------NET
Not too
Not at all
18
12
5

No
op
21

56

25

19

14

42

16

9

 Senator
d. he would address
the needs and
interests of women
e. he would address
the needs and interests
of African Americans

63

17

46

20

14

6

17

56

12

44

24

17

7

21

54

10

44

21

15

6

24

12. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) In your opinion, how well does the phrase
[ITEM] describe Donna Edwards? Not well at all, not too well, pretty well or
extremely well? [Responses read in reverse for random half of sample]
4/3/16 – Summary table

a. she is honest and
trustworthy
b. she really cares
about people like you
c. she would be
effective at getting
things done as a
Senator
d. she would address
the needs and
interests of women
e. she would address
the needs and
interests of African
Americans

------- Well -----NET
Extr
Pretty

-------- Not well -------NET
Not too
Not at all

No
op

68

18

50

13

9

4

19

66

22

44

17

12

5

17

66

17

49

18

13

5

16

78

29

49

8

6

2

15

74

26

48

8

5

3

18

13. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Thinking about the Democratic presidential
primary, who would you like to see win the Democratic nomination for president
this year – (Hillary Clinton) or (Bernie Sanders)? Which candidate are you
leaning toward?
4/3/16 LV
4/3/16 RV

Clinton
55
55

Sanders
40
40

Other (vol.)
1
1

Neither (vol.)
3
3

No opinion
1
1

Compare to: (AMONG DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC-LEANING INDEPENDENT) I'm going to
read a list of possible candidates for the Democratic nomination for president
in 2016. If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in Maryland were being
held today, for whom would you vote? Which one are you leaning toward right
now?
--------- Registered voters ----------10/11/15
10/5/14*
2/16/14
2/24/13
Hillary Clinton
43
63
72
58
Joe Biden
26
9
8
18
Bernie Sanders
20
3
NA
NA
Martin O’Malley
4
3
5
8
Jim Webb
1
NA
NA
NA
Lincoln Chafee
*
NA
NA
NA
Elizabeth Warren
NA
6
3
NA
Andrew Cuomo
NA
2
3
4
None/Any/Other (Vol.)
3
7
2
4
No opinion
2
7
7
8
*Among registered Democrats. NA = not asked

 Thinking about the Republican presidential primary…
14. (AMONG REGISTERED REPUBLICANS) Who would you like to see win the Republican
nomination for president this year – (Ted Cruz), (John Kasich) or (Donald
Trump)? Which candidate are you leaning toward?
4/3/16 LV
4/3/16 RV

Trump
41
39

Kasich
31
29

Cruz
22
24

Other (vol.)
2
2

Neither (vol.)
2
4

No opinion
1
3

15. (ASKED OF HALF SAMPLE) If the general election were being held today and
the candidates were (Hillary Clinton, the Democrat) and (Donald Trump, the
Republican), for whom would you vote? Which candidate are you leaning toward?

4/3/16 RV

Clinton
63

Trump
28

Other
(vol.)
1

Neither
(vol.)
4

Would not
vote (vol.)
3

No
opinion
1

On another subject,
16. Would you support or oppose increasing fines and imposing jail time for
adults who provide alcohol to teenagers, such as parents serving alcohol at
parties for their teenage children?
4/3/16

Support
59

Oppose
36

No opinion
5

Thinking about illegal drugs in Maryland...
17. Would you support or oppose sending people who are convicted of possessing
illegal drugs to treatment programs instead of prison?
4/3/16

Support
81

Oppose
15

No opinion
4

18. Maryland lawmakers are considering changing the penalties for illegal drug
usage - this would include allowing non-violent drug offenders to be released
earlier from prison and moving away from mandatory minimum sentences. Do you
support or oppose this proposal.
4/3/16

Support
71

Oppose
23

No opinion
5

QUESTIONS 19-25 HELD FOR RELEASE
26. (HALF SAMPLE 1, AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) How important, if at all, is it
that Maryland Democrats nominate a woman to run for the U.S. Senate? Extremely
important, very important, somewhat important, not too important or not at all
important?

4/3/16

-------- Important -------Extremely
Very
Somewhat
15
14
31

--- Not important -Not too
Not at all
18
21

No opinion
1

27. (HALF SAMPLE 1, AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) How important, if at all, is it
that Maryland Democrats nominate an African American to run for the U.S.
Senate? Extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too
important or not at all important?
-------- Important -------Extremely
Very
Somewhat

--- Not important -Not too
Not at all

No opinion

 4/3/16

12

15

30

21

21

1

28. (HALF SAMPLE 2, AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) How important, if at all, is it
that Maryland Democrats nominate an African American woman to run for the U.S.
Senate? Extremely important, very important, somewhat important, not too
important or not at all important?

4/3/16

-------- Important -------Extremely
Very
Somewhat
16
12
26

--- Not important -Not too
Not at all
24
21

No opinion
1

30. (AMONG REGISTERED DEMOCRATS) Who do you trust more to handle [ITEM] (Donna Edwards) or (Chris Van Hollen)? And who you trust more to handle [NEXT
ITEM]?
a. making sure low-income women have access to women’s health clinics
Donna Edwards
Chris Van Hollen
No opinion

4/3/16
61
21
18

b. making sure that women earn equal pay for equal work

Donna Edwards
Chris Van Hollen
No opinion

4/3/16
59
22
19

PARTYID. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as:
4/3/16
10/11/15
2/8/15
10/5/14
2/16/14
2/24/13
10/15/12
1/26/12
10/22/10 RV
9/26/10
5/6/10
10/20/08 RV
10/22/07
10/26/06 RV

Democrat
44
40
46
43
42
45
46
44
49
46
44
50
48
50

Republican
19
20
18
17
18
18
20
19
21
21
22
24
19
28

Independent
30
33
29
29
31
31
25
30
25
25
27
25
26
20

Other
4
5
5
7
4
4
5
3
4
5
4
1
7
2

No opinion
2
2
2
4
5
2
5
2
1
4
3
*
1
*

** END **
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
This poll was jointly sponsored and funded by The Washington Post and The
University of Maryland. The poll includes interviews in English and Spanish.
This questionnaire was administered with the exact questions in the exact order
as appears in this document. If a question was asked of a reduced base of the
sample, a parenthetical preceding the question identifies the group asked.
Questions that contain parenthetical phrases indicate clauses that were

 randomly rotated for respondents. Trended references to results with “LV” or
“RV” indicate results among likely voters or registered voters.
A dual frame landline and cell phone telephone sample was generated using
Random Digit Dialing procedures by Survey Sampling International (SSI). The
survey was conducted with 652 respondents reached on landline phones, 651
reached on cellular phones including 280 who are cell phone-only. An additional
200 respondents were interviewed based on a systematic sample of registered
Democrats and Republicans from a list sample maintained by Aristotle, Inc.
which matched names from state registered voter files to commercial-available
phone numbers.
Interviewers called landlines and asked to interview the youngest male or
youngest female who is at home at the time, with the male requested 75 percent
of the time. Interviewers calling cellular phones interviewed the respondent if
they were eligible to participate. For voter list sample numbers, interviews
asked for the person whose name is on the file.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in
the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps account
for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The
landline, cell phone and voter list samples were combined using a weight that
accounts for their differing rates of dialing numbers within each group, as
well as for the propensity of being reached in more by more than one sample
(i.e. using both a landline and cellular phone).
The overall adult sample is weighted using a raking procedure to match the
demographic makeup of the Maryland adult population by sex, age, education,
race/ethnicity and the share of cell phone only/landline only/dual service
household. The sample of registered voters was weighted to match the share of
voters registered with each party by region.
Sources for weighting targets include the American Community Survey
(demographics), the 2014 National Health Interview Survey and voter
registration counts by the Maryland State Board of Elections.
All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect,
which is 1.62 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the
survey’s deviation from a simple random sample, and takes into account
decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Surveys
that do not incorporate a design effect overstate their precision.
Contact polls@washpost.com for further information about how The Washington
Post conducts polls.