©THE ELWAY POLL 12 APRIL 16 12 APRIL 2016 Lobbyists Grades for 2016 Session Slightly Up Overall, But Down in Most Subjects The legislature showed slight improvement overall compared to previous years, but declined in several key areas and seriously dropped the ball on public education. So said the 280 lobbyists who participated in the 2016 Elway Poll of the Third House. Asked to give the recent session a letter grade “like they use in school,” the lobbyists gave the legislature an overall grade of “C-” which is the same as last year. The average was 1.78 on the 4.0 scale—up from 1.73 last year and the highest overall grade since 2011. The overall grade does not re lect the grades for speci ic subject areas, however. Grades were lower this year than last year for 5 of the 8 subject areas. Maybe the overall grade mostly re lected relief that the session is not still going on. When asked to name the most signi icant outcome of this session, the second most-volunteered response was “getting inished.” The lowest grade was for the subject of K-12 education, which was also the biggest drop compared to last 2016 LEGISLATURE REPORT CARD year. This year’s grade was “D+” down from “C+” last year. A 56% majority gave a grade of “D” or “F” for the OVERALL PERFORMANCE Cwork on education (Details on p.2). As usual, the budget was the primary focus. Also as Transportation C+ usual, the lobbyists liked the budget outcome much betPublic Safety C. ter than they liked the process. • The inal budget document was graded at C+ (2.13), with Higher Education C. 76% giving it a “C” (satisfactory) or better. 38% gave the budget an “A” (5%) or “B” (33%) vs. Health Care C. 24% who gave it a “D” (24%) or “F” (6%). • The budget process was a different story: it was graded Social/Human Services C“D+” (1.18), with Environment/Nat. Resources 65% giving it a “D” or “F” compared to C 8% giving it an “A” or “B”. CThe budget was cited as the “most signi icant out- The Economy come” of the session, volunteered by 14% of respondents K-12 Education D+ in an open-ended question. The most widespread criticism of the session was the LEGISLATURE “GPA”: 2010 –2016 time it took to produce the budget: 22% volunteered that 4.00 A as the “most signi icant disappointment” of the session. 3.50 B Lack of progress on the school funding issue contrib- 3.00 uted signi icantly to the evaluation of the session. Not on- 2.50 1.88 1.68 1.54 1.62 1.73 1.78 C ly did K-12 education drop to a “D+” grade, but 17% vol- 2.00 1.40 unteered that as the most signi icant disappointment of 1.50 D the session, and several respondents mentioned it in 1.00 0.50 their closing comments at the end of the survey (p.4). 0.00 F  2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 © THE ELWAY POLL 2015 Excerpts may be quoted with attribution. ©THE ELWAY POLL 12 APRIL 16 Grading the Players The lobbyists were also asked to rate the overall performance of the caucuses and the Governor's of ice. The House Republicans rose to the top of the class this year by not getting worse. Their grade of 2.12 was almost identical to the 2.13 they received last year. But whereas that grade put them in third place last year, it placed them at the top for this session. Senate Republicans, House Democrats and Senate Democrats had virtually identical overall grades, although they differed in the proportions of “A” and “B” grades. Senate Republicans had the highest number of “As” and “Bs” (41%) while their Democrat counterparts had the fewest (27%) of the four caucuses. Governor Inslee’s performance rating was again the lowest of the “ ive corners.” 68% of respondents graded him “D” or “F” compared to 13% “A” or “B” for an average of 1.11. Inslee’s ratings have steadily declined over his term in of ice. His grade was 1.42 in his irst session, dropped to 1.34 in 2014 and 2015. The Governor’s lowest grades came from business lobbyists, who gave him a “F” (0.62); his highest from lobbyists for public safety (C-; 1.85) and labor (D+; 1.49). The longer a lobbyist had been around, the lower s/he graded the Governor. His overall grade was 1.62 (D+) among irst-time lobbyists and declined steadily to 0.87 (D-) among those who had been lobbying for more than 20 years. GRADES FOR BUDGET PROCESS, OUTCOME GPA 6 27 PROCESS A OUTCOME Budget 14% Getting Finished 10% Charter Schools 9% Lack of Action 9% Mental Health 8% No Tax Increase 5% Specific Legislation 5% Did No Harm 3% K-12 Funding 2% Wildfire Funding 2% Homeless 2% Transportation 1% DISAPPOINTMENT Failure to Act/Duration McCleary Specific Legislation The 27 Vetoes Budget Document Partisan Polarization No New Revenue Governor Other K-12 House Democrats No Leadership Senate Republicans Budget Process Climate/Enviro Peterson Firing 26 C D 1.18 F 18 6 2.13 38 2016 GRADES BY PROGRAM AREA 20 Overall 2 38 A B C D F 39 13 3 2.36 34 40 18 4 2.19 28 51 9 6 2.18 Public Safety 5 Higher Educ 6 5 1.78 34 36 9 Transportation 19 3 2.05 Health Care 3 24 Soc/Human Serv 3 23 47 22 6 1.96 26 41 24 7 1.96 Envir/Nat Res 3 51 18 Economy 3 46 14 K-12 Education 2 23 29 31 10 1.82 1.38 25 GRADING THE “5 CORNERS” A House Reps 3 House Dems B C 13 21 28 5 F 18 7 2.12 30 5 1.98 45 23 5 1.96 33 35 1.11 25 19 1.98 20 17 33 27 Governor 3 10 D 36 36 Senate Dems 2 22% 17% 11% 7% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% B 33 DOCUMENT Senate Reps Most significant outcome & disappointment of this session 39 LOBBYISTS GRADE THE SESSION 2010-2015 A 2016 2 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 20 5 20 16 1 19 18 3 25 1 17 B C 38 31 40 28 39 35 26 D F NA 5 34 11 33 9 34 13 37 7 36 6 31 21 33 1.78 1.73 1.65 1.54 1.70 1.87 1.43 The questions were open-ended. Answers were coded into these categories. 2 ©THE ELWAY POLL 12 APRIL 16 Lobbyists See Inslee Re-election, Tighter Legislature These lobbyists may not think much of Governor Inslee’s performance, but they expect to be working with him for the next four and a half years. They predicted his re-election by nearly a 7:1 margin: 81% expected Inslee to win in November, compared to 12% for his Republican challenger, Bill Bryant. Some 5% thought another Democrat may yet enter the race and win, while 1% thought a new Republican challenger could win. Expectations for Legislative races were mixed. • In the State Senate: 49% expected no change; while 35% thought the Democrats would gains seats, including 30% who expected the Democrats to gain seats; and 5% who thought the Democrats would win a majority there. 17% thought the Republicans would add to their majority. • In the House: 37% thought the Democrats would add to their majority; 45% expected Republicans to gain seats, including 33% who expected a tie; and 12% who predicted an Republican majority; while WHO WILL WIN 81 19% expected no change in the make-up of the RACE FOR House. GOVERNOR? Expectations for Election Outcomes Sample Profile 280 of 830 registered lobbyists completed this survey online. The table below presents a profile of those responding. ISSUE FOCUS [Multiple Answers Allowed] Business .................................................................. 36% Health Care .............................................................. 25% Government / Public Sector ..................................... 24% Education ................................................................. 18% Natural Resources / Environment ............................ 16% Transportation.......................................................... 16% Social/Human Services............................................ 15% Labor........................................................................ 14% Public Safety .............................................................. 8% Other .......................................................................... 8% INSLEE 5 12 1 OTHER DEM BRYANT OTHER REP OUTCOME OF SENATE RACES GOP Adds to Majority Dems Gain Seats Dems Take Majority No Change 17 49 5 30 INDEPENDENT OR EMPLOYED Independent / Contract Lobbyist .............................. 42% Employed by Organization....................................... 56% Citizen / Unpaid ......................................................... 1% TENURE First Session .............................................................. 6% 2-5 years .................................................................. 29% 6-10 years ................................................................ 17% 11-20 years .............................................................. 19% 21+ years ................................................................. 28% The Elway Poll 7 03 5 P a l at i n e N . Seattle, WA 98103 206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301 epoll@elwayresearch.com GOP Takes Majority Dems Add to Majority Tie No Change OUTCOME OF HOUSE RACES 19 12 33 37 3 ©THE ELWAY POLL 12 APRIL 16 The Good of the Order. Lobbyists were given the opportunity to make any final comments about the session. This is a sampling of the unedited responses. ACCOMPLISHMENTS The bar was set low and the legislature didn't get over it. • It felt like a pre-season game where the main issues were not on the ield. • A lot done in a short time. The lip side of that is a budget should have been prioritized and done on time. • The best that can be said about the 64th Legislature is that it avoided any major tax increases and a lood of anti-business bills failed to pass. Sadly, little or no positive action occurred to bolster consumer or business conidence to help spur economic and job growth outside of the greater Seattle metropolitan area.. • Well, besides the drama of transgender bathrooms, the legislature did pay for emergent problems (wild ires and mental health) and left a lot of policy work for next year. For all the posturing, common for an election year, some work did get done. • I went into the Session expecting nothing and was not disappointed. • 2016 was a predictable battle between competing philosophies in a divided government. Outcomes acceptable even if tactics were not especially the Governor's use of his veto authority • EDUCATION They continue to punt the K-12 conversation, and decisions that need to follow, forward. It is troubling the Senate Republicans have no plan, or even acknowledgement, that the McCleary decision is looming and looks to be a HUGE iscal issue. • Too much focus on education diversions. ie: Charter Schools • The Legislature's continued refusal to comply with McCleary shows an incredible lack of leadership and ignores the needs of our state's 1.1 million students enrolled in K-12 public schools. Instead, they passed a charter school bill that diverts public funding to privately run schools that serve 1,100 students. • Complete state of denial by all parties on education funding issues is deeply disturbing. It will be impossible to resolve core funding, the levy cliff and levy reform in one session in 2017. A disaster is pending. • It amazes me that our state continues to pay the ines that it does, on a daily basis, because our (mostly) Republicans!! cannot fund Washington State education, c'mon guys, really? • PROCESS / PARTISANSHIP This year has irmly established a new standard - as long as we have a divided Legislature, we are guaranteed special sessions. GOVERNOR • Senate Republicans have gotten smarter and more sophisti• Though the Gov vetoes were super luous, I appreciated cated in their strategy; Democrats in house and senate continthe message about the normalcy special sessions have ue to compromise with themselves. Infuriating. become. • Senate Republicans showed restraint. • No governor should train the legislature to override his/ • The Senate Republicans are clearly driving the policy and her vetoes... budget decisions. They need to identify a strong leader within • the Gov's vetoes of 27 bills did nothing to motivate the their caucus on education issues before we head into the 2017 groups to agree on a budget; it just further exasperated legislative session. his relationship with both houses. • Very poorly handled by the leaders of all four caucuses; the • The Governor still hasn't igured out how to use his power and has been made largely irrelevant in the legislative Senate R's got most everything they wanted, and gave up little to get them; the House D's caved on levy cliff; process. Which means the Senate and House are left to • Senate Republicans were extremely divisive and partisan; argue over very small items and are unable to make prospent too much time trying demonize the Governor's admingress on the important issues facing the state. istration • The biggest disappointment was Governor Inslee -- for • Continued efforts by D's to increase taxes and spending dethe fourth year in a row -- demonstrating his disconnect spite historic increase in spending between 2013-2015 and from the legislative process. In the past, it was a very late demand for legislation (after cutoffs) or major policy 2015-2017 biennia announcement (death penalty suspension) not related to • What has been made clear by the protracted budget negotiation is that the 4-year budget outlook is now a dominant facsession. in 2016, he proclaimed his worry about legislator in negotiating the budget. This plays into the hands of the tors taking us within 24 hours of a government shutGOP. Democrats wanting to spend more on their political badown, even though the budget was passed and in place ses, social services and education, are hemmed in by having to for the next 15 months. Inslee is the most uninformed pay attention to the balance sheet ...forecasts 3 and 4 years and disengaged government we have had in the past 50 into the future. For Republicans, if the voter-approved exyears. penditure limit enacted under Initiative 601 (based upon pre• Governor comes late to the budget party...again! A convious spending levels and in lation) was the Old Testament, sistent pattern of declaring "government shutdown" has now the 4-year budget outlook has become the New Testaoccurred every year instead of an early & aggressive outment of the Republican budget strategy. reach effort with both parties & in the House & Senate. • 4