MANITOBA’S DEBATE METHODOLOGY Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 998 Manitobans by Smart IVR™ on April 12th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/- 4.32%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-4.45%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census. A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”. PALLISTER, BEDDOME SCORE BIG IN TELEVISED DEBATE April 12th, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted immediately following the Televised Leader’s Debate finds Brian Pallister was the big winner with James Beddome scoring well among debate watchers. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.01%, 19 times out of 20. “This was a good debate for Brian Pallister who kept calm and steady,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “It’s clear from favourability scores he and James Beddome did best.” Favourability Scores (Positive minus Negative): Selinger: -32 Pallister: 0 Bokhari: -40 Beddome: +26 “Beddome is the only candidate with a positive score, while 44% of Manitobans said Pallister won the debate. These have to be very troubling number for Bokhari who actually scores lower than Greg Selinger - that’s not good.” “There needed to be a knockout blow to change the dynamics of this election - there wasn’t one. For now it looks like Brian Pallister continues to coast to a strong finish on election day now just under a week away,” finished Maggi. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca A3 Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate? [Debate Watchers Only] 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Selinger Pallister Bokhari Undecided 10% James Beddome 19% Rana Bokhari 4% 0 Brian Pallister 44% Greg Selinger 24% 5 Beddome Undecided A4 Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Greg Selinger 14% 28% 24% 26% 19% 28% Brian Pallister 43% 45% 44% 44% 40% 47% Rana Bokhari 3% 4% 5% 5% 5% 3% James Beddome 23% 17% 18% 17% 22% 15% Undecided 18% 6% 10% 9% 13% 7% 75 247 318 358 408 590 Sample Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Greg Selinger 24% 25% 19% Brian Pallister 44% 40% 53% Rana Bokhari 4% 3% 6% James Beddome 19% 21% 14% Undecided 10% 12% 7% Sample 998 514 484 A5 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Greg Selinger? [Debate Watchers Only] 18% 25% 57% Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure A6 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Greg Selinger? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Favourable 21% 23% 23% 32% 21% 28% Unfavourable 53% 67% 56% 52% 59% 55% Not Sure 26% 10% 22% 16% 19% 17% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Favourable 25% 24% 26% Unfavourable 57% 53% 65% Not Sure 18% 22% 9% A7 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? [Debate Watchers Only] 22% 39% 39% Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure A8 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Favourable 27% 36% 43% 48% 39% 39% Unfavourable 30% 47% 40% 40% 35% 43% Not Sure 44% 17% 18% 12% 26% 17% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Favourable 39% 33% 52% Unfavourable 39% 41% 37% Not Sure 22% 26% 11% A9 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari? [Debate Watchers Only] 16% 29% 56% Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure A10 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Favourable 13% 13% 15% 22% 15% 17% Unfavourable 51% 61% 60% 48% 49% 62% Not Sure 36% 27% 24% 29% 36% 21% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Favourable 16% 15% 19% Unfavourable 56% 56% 55% Not Sure 29% 29% 26% A11 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome? [Debate Watchers Only] 28% 49% 23% Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure A12 And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female Favourable 55% 54% 43% 46% 50% 48% Unfavourable 19% 24% 28% 21% 22% 24% Not Sure 26% 22% 29% 34% 28% 28% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB Favourable 49% 53% 39% Unfavourable 23% 18% 36% Not Sure 28% 29% 25% A13 And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 19th? [Debate Watchers Only] 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided 15% Green 5% Liberal 0 PC 60% NDP 17% 5 3% 10 Undecided A14 And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 19th? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female NDP 16% 17% 16% 20% 13% 22% PC 59% 65% 60% 56% 62% 58% Liberal 2% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% Green 18% 1% 1% 1% 8% 1% Undecided 5% 14% 19% 20% 14% 16% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB NDP 17% 19% 14% PC 60% 55% 69% Liberal 3% 3% 3% Green 5% 7% 1% Undecided 15% 16% 13% A15 And if the provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [Debate Watchers Only] 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 All NDP 12% 6% 55% 27% 17% 8% 5% 47% 0 23% 5 Decided & Leaning PC Liberal Green Undecided A16 And if the provincial election were held today, which party would you support? [Debate Watchers Only] 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female NDP 21% 24% 21% 28% 21% 25% PC 56% 44% 43% 47% 46% 48% Liberal 2% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% Green 17% 4% 7% 6% 11% 6% Undecided 5% 24% 23% 14% 17% 17% Manitoba Winnipeg Rest of MB NDP 23% 25% 20% PC 47% 44% 53% Liberal 5% 4% 6% Green 8% 9% 6% Undecided 17% 18% 16% A17 And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only] 6% 19% 52% 7% 16% NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided A18 SCRIPT Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate? Greg Selinger of the NDP Brian Pallister of the Progressive Conservatives Rana Bokhari of the Liberal Party James Beddome of the Greens Undecided And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Greg Selinger? Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brian Pallister? Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rana Bokhari? Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of James Beddome? Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure A19 SCRIPT And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 19th? NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided And if the provincial election were held today, which party would you support? NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided