Genes?. _ts4-1-1B . IN CORRESPONDENCE one October 31, 1977 T0 REFERENCE 77GR 961 John W. Harrison SUEECT FROM Henry Shaw Environmental Effects of Carbon Dioxide On October 15, 1977, I attended a meeting in Atlanta of the study group on global environmental effects of carbon dioxide. The group is chaired by Dr. Alvin Weinberg of the Institute for Energy Analysis. Dr. Ralph M. Rotty of the Institute for Energy Analysis is the secretary. Other members of the group include Dr. Melvin Calvin of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, Dr. Wilmot Hess, Director of the Environmental Research Laboratories of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Dr. Norman Hackerman, President of Rice University, Dr. Thomas Malone, Director of the Holcomb Research Institute, and Dr. Ruth Patrick of the Philadelphia Academy of Scientists. Drs. Hess and Hackerman were absent from this meeting. Also present at the meeting were Mr. David Slade, Deputy Manager of Environmental Programs and Acting Director of the special office to address carbon dioxide questions, and Mr. Phillip A. Garron of the U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Public Affairs. The public was represented by Mr. L. A. McReynolds, Manager of Environment, Consumer Protection and Standards for the Phillips Petroleum Company, and myself. Dr. Alvin Weinberg opened the meeting by explaining that the study group had been empowered, as a subgroup of the Environmental Advisory Committee to the Department of Energy, to make recommendations to Dr. Liverman. The formation of the Environmental Advisory Committee had been requested by Dr. Liverman, but the committee never got underway. Therefore, the study group was a subgroup of a committee that had yet to be formed. These organizational considerations are apparently a result of 0MB's attempt to reduce the number of federal committees. Dr. Rotty discussed the minutes of the May 21 meeting (previous meeting), and in the discussion of the minutes it became apparent that Dr. Rotty is Dr. Weinberg's right?hand man in this study group. Mr. Slade followed on the agenda with a discussion of the establishment of the Office of Carbon Dioxide and Environmental Effects, and on organizational questions concerning his office, the study group, and the plans for research in the future. He distributed a rough draft of his research plans for the next two to three years, but would not give me a copy, claiming that it was much too rough to be disseminated to the public. Mr. Garron promised me a copy as soon as it is polished. From the discussion, I gathered that the government's plan centers around finding an acknowledged expert, a key individual who, as part of a research institute or other type organization, will take the lead in the CO program. The current funding is on the order of $1 million which wi 1 be increased in to about $1.5 million, and in to $9.3 million. This funding level was arrived at from the recommendations made at a meeting of experts in CO2 effects held in Miami Beach (March 7?11, 1977). October 31, -2- John W. Harrison 7977 The I'Iiarni Beaeh Workshop was attended by about 70 experts in climatology, ecology, forestry, agriculture, geochemistry, and oceanography. Based on the discussions at this Workshop, the Weinberg study group recommended that DOE research money be committed to three specifie projects which must be started irnmediately: of the amount of carbon stored, and the rates of fixation and rel-ease from the major forest types of the world. 1. The determination 2. The verification in ocean rvater 3. The measurement of carbon dioxide and on the surface of oceans. of the carbon dioxide buffer factor in the atmosphere In addition, a srnall amount of research money should be given to acknowl-edged experts in these areas to write t'research Program development paperstt. A list of these research papers is appended to this memorandum. Dave Slade reiterated that the key step in carrying out the required work to assess the potential- environmental damage of CO" was to select a key individual and organization as the foeal point for this work. He plans to use an RFP route to select the indivldual. Dr. trIeinberg strongl-y suggested that this individual be a high caliber scientist willing to devote the next ten or more years to this type of work, and who wil-l- be protected in This does not an organization that has al-l- the required support facilities. imply that all the research will be done by the organization that wins the contract, but it does indicate that the key individual will- be the focal point and administrator of the program. The committee emphasized a number of times that this individual be prirnarily a scientist, and the program be one of basic research rather than engineering or developnent-type research. The consensus of the group was that an aerospace tyPe approach, i.e., PERT charts, etc., rvould not be likely to achieve the desired results. Dr. Malone then discussed the report recently completed by the of Sciences on Energy and Climate. He distributed a 40-page to all attendees. The National Acadeny of Sciences of the report sumrary that: report concludes National- Academy climatic effects of carbon dioxide release may be primary 1-imiting factor on energy production from the fuels fossil over the next few centuries. 1. The 2. It that the direct generation of production heat from the and consumption of energy over the next fevr centuries will cause a rise of more than 0.5oC in global average air temperature. 3. There are profound uncertainties regarding the carbon cycle, climate, and their interdependence. These uncertainties can be resolved only by a well-coordinated effort of exrraordinarily interdisciplinary character. does not now appear John W. Harrison v -3- OLJber 31, 1977 The National Academy therefore recommended: 1. The possibility of modification of the worldrs climate by carbon dioxide release should be given serious prompt consideration by concerned national and internat,ional organizations and agencies. Two kinds of action are needed: a. organization of a comprehensive b. research program, new institutional worLd-wide and arrangements. 2. A world-wide comprehensive research program shouLd include studies on the carbon cycle, cI-imate, future populatj-on changes and energy demands, and ltays to mitigate the effective clj.matic change on world-food produci'ion. 3. A11 the foregoing recommendations for research relate to global concerns, and therefore the cooperation of such international agencies as the World Meteorological Organization, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and the International Council of Scientific Unions should be sought in responding to them. A hlgh degree of j-nternational government cooperation is called for because of the need for a r+orld-wide set of measurements and network of observing stations. As to the United States, consideration should be given to,the establishment at the national 1evel of a mechanism to r'reave together the interests and capabilities of the scienLific community and the various agencies of the federal government in dealing with climate-related probleins. Dr. Malone further indicated that he had recently met with Dr. B. J. Mason of the British Meteorological- Service (apparently the worldrs authority in this area) who was not convinced that CO, accumul-ation in the atmosphere hras a very significant probl-ern. Dr. Iulason-did not question the rule of thurnb that a doubling of the current level of carbon dioxide from 330 ppn to about 700 ppm would cause a change of about 2oC on the average in the atmosphere. Dr. Mason did acknowl-edge that the CO, problem is the most important man-made weather problern that we have to c6ntend with. Dr. l,lalone al-so reported that Dr. Chatwick of Harwel-l, on the other hand, considers the CO, a najor problem and was very receptive to the report from the National Academy of Sciences. The discussion then returned to the methodology for choosing the director of a CO. program task force. Dave Slade visualized the director?s role as sfrnilar to the role of the director of the sul-fate program with EPRI and EPA which is currently funded at about $5 nillion level. Another example of a scientist who is the focal point of a major Program l.s Dr, J. D. Balcomb of the Los ALarnos Scientific Laboretory. Ile is heading the area of passive solar cooling and heating r^'hich has a program of about $15 rni11ion. Finally, the discussion turned to the recently completed program that assessed the ozone problem relat.ive to the SST. John \{. Harrison -4- oVober 3L, 7977 This r.ras a $21 million program that lasEed about three years and was headed by Dr. Alan Grobecker, who was with the DepartrnenE of Transportation. He is currently a Division Chief in the National Science Foundat.ion, Dr, Grobecker \.Jas both the chief scientist and the anager of the ozone program. The members of the study group seemed to agree that the progran was carried out very poorly, and that much of that money r{as vasted. Dr. Malone indicated that Dr. John Tukey of Princeton University was t.rying to put together a final document that might salvage sorne of the results of this progran, Dr. Weinberg then discussed the best political moves Eo alert the administration to the problems that the study group foresees in climate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. He was careful to indicate rhat discussions of the potenEial CO, problerns should be led by individual-s who are no! nuclear advocates, sinc6 this problem is associated with fossil fueJ. burning and could be viewed as a poll"tical method to promote nuclear cechnology. Dr. Weinberg mentioned that he would discuss this further with Dr. John M. Deutch who has recently been appointed Head of the Office of Energy Research as an Assistant Secretary of the DoE. Dr. Patrick, a personal friend of Jim Schlesinger, indicated thal she would rsrite him a letter outlining the C0" problen. Dr. Weinberg felt that this would be an excellenE idea and offered to have Dr, Rotty draft lhe letter for her. Dr. Patrick al"so offered to bring the subject up at Ehe next EPA Advisory Conrrrittee meeting, and this was also strongly endorsed. Fina1ly, it was decided that both Jim Schlesinger and Dr. Frank Press, the Presidential Sclence Advisor, must be briefed so that they can jointly explain the nagnitude of the problem to President Carter. With regard to startin€! an internationaL effort in this very importan! area, Dr. Lleinberg, wtto is also chairnan of the International 0rganization for Applied Systens (I0SA), indicated that this organization had taken a lead in assessing the global cLlmatic effect of CO/ and at the next neeting he would take a strong stand for the initiation of a world-vride coordinated effort in this area. meeting A brief discussion was held regarding the desirability of another similar to the Miand Workshop. It was felt that another meeting of this kind would be premature, and Dave Slade was asked Lo cancel the tentative neeting that nas to take place in March 1978, The next meeting of a scientific nature that wlll discuss the CO, effect on clinate will probably take place in January J-979. Before leaviag, Phil Garren gave me coples of a press release concerning the establj-shment of a special office to address carbon dioxide questions, a statement for the record delivered by Jin Liverrnan to the Subcommittee on Energy and the Environment of the House of Representatives Conmittee on Interior and Insular Affairs of June 9,1977, and the testimony presented by Dr. Weinberg before the subcomrnittee on the Environment and the Atnosphere, Comnittee on Science and Technology, U. S, Hguse of Representa- tives, July 21 , L977. (- - / Yeil'v11 ' Henry Shaw HS/j ep Attachment John W. Harrison 5 OEEbber 31, 1977 cc: List 1 W. Bartok J. F. Black R. w. Scott FP 101 v ATTACHMENT APPEi\:IDIX Research Progran Developnen[ Papers Cop-,issioned as of JuIy 15, 1977 1- Present and FuEure Global Fuel Dr. R. ll. Use RoEEY and Exchange Rates ln Terrestr$al Bionass I z Storage Dr. G. Likens 2. COo 3. COz Storage and Exchange RaEes la Terresrrlal Bionass II 4. COo Scorage and Exchange RaEes ln TerresEria1 Biornass III 5- Geochenlcal DeEeroinacLon of BLoraass Dr, 11- Stulver 6, Response Dr. R. S. Loonrls z Dr. G. l'iood';ell Change of BloEa to Increased Atnospherlc Dr' O. Bjorloan - CO- SEorage ancl Exchange RaEes in Oceans I 8. CO, Scorage and Exchange RaEes Dr- ll. S- Broecker ln Oceans II 9- Acnospheric lloniEorlng oE CA, 7 z Dr. c- D- Keeling Dr. K. CO, Hanson of Prediction of Effecc of Dr, If. Kellogg lO- Improvemant 1!.- llodeling of Carbon Cycle and BudgeE Dr. L- i'lachEa L2. IJorkshop on PlanE Responses Dr. B. Strain to Global CO, on ClirnaEe CO, Enricheenc ..b v V AGENDA FOR STUDY October 15, 1977 GITOUP MEETING a.m. Atlanta Airport Delta Group Room 5, Seventh Floor 10:00 1. CaLI to ord,er" remarks, and agenda. A- lrt. l{einberg 2. Minutes of tlay 21 neeting. R. lvl. Rotty 3. Office of Carbon Dioxide Environnental Ef,fects Research D. Slade a. Establishnent b. Organizational questions: Office, Study Group, Scientific Directorate 4., General a. fnstitutional Arrangenents ERDA and All nationally b. International 5. Discussion of 6. Report on Research Program Development Papers Report of Nliani Beach l,leeting All R. ll. Rotty 7. Guidance for emphasis (priorities) in FY 1978 Research All 8. Other iterns 9. Sunmary and Adjournment (by 5:00 p.n.)