EKsN RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING COMPANY P.O. BOX 5r. LTNDEN N.J. 07036 PROOUCTS RESEAfi CH DI VISION J.F. ELACK Scientific Advisot Juue 6, 1978 The Greenhouse Effect Ref. No: 78pR 461 Mr. F. G. Turpin, Vlce President E:ocon Research and Engineerlng Petroleun Staff P. O. Box L01 Florhan Park, NJ 07932 Co. Dear Frank: the The review of the Greenhouse Effect which r presented. to E:oron Corporatlon Management congrittee last July used only rnr- graphs, wLthout a prepared text. Last month, r had the opportunlty to present an updated verslon of this talk to pERCC. The attached text was dlctated shortly afterward to satlsfy requests for a written version of the talk from people who had not heard the presentation last July. Also attached is a sunmary. Slncerely, //'-'"'- {4. s. BLAcK JFB/nrbh Attachments: Sumrnary Text Vugraphs CC: Messrs. N. Alpert W. !f. Cooper, Jr. E. E. David E. J. Gornowski R. L. Hlrsch F. A. L. Holloway P. J. Lucchesi t. E. Swabb, Jr. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT J. F. Black, Products Research Dlvisidn E:r:con Research and Engineerlag Co. SI'MMARY The earthts atmosphere presently contains about 330 pprn of CO2. gas does not absorb an appreciable amount of the incoming solar This energy but lt can absorb and return part of the lnfrared radiatlon whlch the earth radiates toward space. COZ, therefore, contrlbutes to warming the lower atmosphere by what has been ca1led the rrGreenhouse Effect.r' The C02 content of the atmosphere has been monltored slnce at two Locations, the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii and the South PoIe. These and other shorter studies show that CO2 Ls increasing. If the Lncrease is attributed to the combustion of fossil fuels, it can be calcuLated that the CO2 content of the atmosphere has already been ral.sed by about 10 to L5% and that slightLy trore than half of the C02 released by fossil fueL combustion is remalning in the atmosphere. Assuni.ng that the percentage of the CO2 renaining in the atmosphere rr111 stay at 532 as fossil fuel consumptlon Lncreases, one recent study predicts that ln 2075 A.D., COZ concentratlon will peak at a Level about twLce what could be considered normal. This predictlon assrrmes that fosstl fueL consumptlon will grorr at a rate of 27" per year until 2025 A.D. after which lt wl1L follow a syuretrlcal decrease. This growth curve is close to that predicted by Exxonrs Corporate Planning L957 Departnent. Matheuatical uodels for predicting the clinatic effect of a not progressed to the poi.nt at whieh all the feedback which ean be lmportant to the outcome can be included. I,lhat interactlons is considered the best presently available climate model for treatlng the Greenhouse Effect predlcts that a doubling of the C02 concentratlon ln the atmosphere would produce a mean temperature increase of about 2"C to 3oC over most of the earth. The model also predicts that the temperature lncrease near the poJ-es may be t!f,o to three times this value. C02 lncrease have The CO2 increase rneasured to date is not capable of producing an effect large enough to be distlnguished from norual clinate variations. As an example of normal varl.ations, studies of meteorological and historlcal records in England indlcate that the mean temperature has varied over a range of about t0.7oC ln the past 1000 years. A study of past climates suggests that if the earth does become warmerrmore rainfall should result. But an increase as large as 2"C would probably also affect the dlstrlbutlon of the rainfall. A possibl-e result night be a shlft of both the desert and the fertile areas of the g1-obe toward higher l-atitudes. Some countries would benefit but others could have their agricuJ-tural output reduced or destroyed. The picture is too unclear to predict which countrles might be affected favorabJ-y or unfavorably. -2It seems 1lke1y that any general. tempetature increase would be acceutuated ln the polar reglons, possibly as much as trro- or threefoLd as Eentl'oned above. Any large temperature increase at hlgh latitudes would be assoclated wlth a reductj.on in sno\r cover and a of the floatlng lce-pack. Present thlnking suggests that theremelting would be llttle or no neltlng of the polar ice-caps it re"porrse to rf,armer temperatures on a tlme scale over which the Greenhouse Effect is predicted to apply. A nurnber of assrmrptions and uncertairlties are iuvolved, ia the predictlons of the Greenhouse Effect. The fLrst is the assunption that the observed Co2 lncrease can be attributed eati.rel-y to fossil. fuel coubustLon. At Presentr meteorol.ogists have no direct evldence that the incremental C02 tn the atmosphere comes from fossil carbon. The increase could be at least partly due to changes in the natural balance. There is eonsiderable uncertainty regarding what controls the exchange of atuospheric Co2 wlth the oceans and with carbonaceous uaterlals on the contlnents. Models whlch predict the climatic effects of a CO2 lncrease are in a prfurltlve stage of development. The atmosphere i.s a very comp]-icated system, particuLarry on a global- scaLe. rn existlng models, lmportant lnteractions are neglected, ei.ther because they ar! not completely understood or because thelr proper roathematical treatment is too cuobersome. Substantlal efforts are being expended to improve exlsting models. But there is no guarantee that better knowleage wfU lessen rather than auguent the severity of the predictions. The Greenhouse Effect has been the subject of a number of lnternatlonal sclentlflc conferences during the past two years. These neetlngs have identified the infonoation needed to definitely establish the source and ultlmate signiflcance of the C02 increase fn lne atmosphere. Present thlnklng holds that man has a tlne window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategles might become critical. The DOE is presentiy Congreisional supPort for a research program whieh will produce""ekirrg the necessary inforrnatLon ln the required ti.ne. This proglam is deseribed. '' TIIE GREENHOUSE EFFECT By J. F. BI.ACK Transcript of a Talk Delivered Sefore the PERCC MeetJ.ng May L8, 1978 The Greenhouse Effect refers to a warning of the earth's atEosphete due to an lncreage ln the concentlatlon of carbon dloxlde. As a background for the discusslon today, the first vugraph outlines the basis for the Greenhouse Effect. The earth recelves energy ln the fora of both v1s1b1e and ultraviolet radlatlon fron the sun. soae of this radiatlon 1s reflected back into space, soDe 1s absorbed by the atEosphere but nost ls absorbed at the earthrs surface. Tte earth ln turns reeolts energy in the form of lnfrared radlatlon toward space. Cerbon dloxlde and other atEospherlc coostl.tuents absorb part of the Lnfrared radiatlon. Thls abgorbed energy lrarus the atnosphere. Therefore, higher carbon dloxlde concentratlons result ln a nore lapld absotptlon of the outgolng lnfrared radl-atlon and waraer teDperatures near the earthrs surface. In Ey talk today I am plannlng to dlscuss: I. II. III. IV. The Source aDd Projected Magnltude Increase ln the Atmosphere of the CO2 The Global Teupelsture Increase Which Can Be Expected Frou Hl.gher C02 Concentlatlons Potentlal tule Increase The Problems Arlslng Froo a Global Tempera- Research Needed to Establlsh rhe Validlty and Si.gnlficance of Projected Increases of CO2 in the AtEosphere. ls derlved fron followlng recent llterature iD thls area froo talks lrlth some of the leadlng research people 1o the fleld. My lnforrnatloa and L The Solr"ce and Projected Magnltude Atnosphere of the CO? Increase in the Slnee 1958, C02 has been uonitored at a nr:ober of reDote eltes nhleh are ftee froo locsl Lnputs (Vugraph 2), These are polnt Ba!ror,, Alaska; so'e Snedlsh alrcraft fllghts; Mauna Loa, Eawali; Aoerican Samoa end the South Po1e. Ttre calbon dloxlde concentratlon has been for:nd to be increaslng rather uulforroly at all loca!1ons wlth the South pole measureDents rathe! lagglng those lD the Notthern l{eulsphere. AtDospherlc dcientists generally attrlbute thls grovth in C02 to the coDbustlon of fossll fue1. A prlnclpal reaeon for this Ls that fossll fuel coEbustlon ls the only readlly ldentlflable gource whlch ls (1) growlng at the 6ase tat.e, (2) large enough !o account for the obeerved lncreases, and (3) capable of affectlng the Northera tseolsphele flrst. If thls assulaptlon regardlng the orlgln of carbon dloxlde 1s -t - t!ue, it ean be calculated that a lIttle over 502 of the CO2 enterlng the ataosphere 1s reoalning thele and the rest ls belng absorbed ln aurface slnks on the contineDts or ln the oceao. ExtrapoletLag backnerds ln tlne to fo1low the history of fossl1 fuel corobuetlon, lt can be estlDated that slnce 1850 the coacentratloo of this gas ln the atEosphere has lncreased by about 132. Thls iacrease sDounts to about 75 bl111on netrlc tona of carbon dloxlde. It ls also posslble to extlapolate lnto the future. One of the Dost cormonly guoted exttapolatlons is that-of the oak Rldge Natlonal Laboratory whlch was publlshed in 1976r. Thls study produced two scenarlos for the grorrth of fossil fuel coasrnptlorr (Vugraph 3). Prior Eo 1973, fossl1 fuel use had beea growf.ng exponentlally at about 4.37. pet yeat. The scenarlo for nost rapld growth as€rned that this gronth rate nould coutlaue, Eodlfled by a depletlon factor whlch reduced the exponent ln proportlon to the aoount of foesll fuel whlch temalned unburned. Thel! second end uore cooselvative assuaption presuaed ihat fosel1 fuel utllLzatlon would grow wlth a 2Z grolrth late out to 2025 A.D. follolred by a srtetrlcal decrease. Ttrls latter Ecenario is cloae to that developed indepeadently by the CoordlDatlon and Plaanlng DepartEent of the E:o(on Corporatlon. Vugraph 4 plesents the predicted atuospherlc carbon dioxlde 1eve1s whlch would result from each of these scenarlos. The vertical axls in thls vuglaph preseuts the atuospherLc carbon dloxlde concentlatlon lelat1ve to that shlch was calculated to have exlsted ln 1850, prlor to the corobu8tlon of appreclable anounts of fossll fuel. It can be seen that the acenarlo baeed upon very rapid gronth pledictE thst by 2075 the atDosphellc carbon dloxlde concentretlon w111 be about 4 to 5 tlDes that whLch exlEted prlor to the lndustrlal revolution. Moreover, at that tLne, the carbon dloxlde concentratloa ry'111 sti11 be Lncreasing. The Dore conservatlve assunptlon, showtr ilr the lol'e! curve, predicts that carbon dloxlde concentratlons \ri1l level out about a century frm now at a value shlch 1s about tlrice that ln exlstence ln 1850 and then nould declLne at a very s1o!r !ste. Although carbon dloxlde Lnclease is predomlnantly attrlbuted to foss11 fuel conbustlon, lo8t sclentlEts agree that more research ls needed !o deflnltely establlsh thls relatlonshlp. The posslbillty rhat Ehe lncleasfng carbon dloxlde ln the atnosphere Ls due to a change lfl the natural balance ha6 aot yet beeD ellelnated. In fact, a look at the Eagnltude of the aatural lnterchanges, as shovn 1n Vugtaph 5, shows that thls posslbillty should be taken Berlously. The data 1n Vugraph 5 are taken floD a Scientlflc Workshop on Atmospherlc C02 spouaored by the World Meteorologlcal Organizatlon Ln Deceober 1976. The vugraph sho\rs the fluxeg of CO2 lnto and out of the atnosphe"e 1n un1t6 of blll1ons of netlic tons of -arbon per year. It -3can be aeen that fossll fuels are estlnated to contrlbute flve b1l11oa tons of catbon per yea! to the atnosphere aDd that about half of thls 1s reabsorbed by the oceans or by the biosphere. The concluslon that fossll fuel coabustlon represents the sole source of lncreaental carbon dloxlde involves assr:olng not only that the contrlbutions fron the b1o_ sphere and flou che oceans are not changlng but also that these tlro soulces are coDtlnulng to absorb exactly the aame aEount as they are enlttlnS. The World Meteorologlcal Organizatlon recognlzed the Deed to valldate these assulrptlons, paltlcuiarly 1n vlew of the fact that the rate of earbon dloxlde Lncrlase less than ZZ ot tii- rale at lrh1ch the atnosphere 1s exchanglng ".pr.".rrt" carbon dloxlde lrlth the biosphere and the oceans. The blologlsts have been clalnlng that deforestatlon and assoclated blogenlc effects on the contln.it" ,.p.es"ot an lEportant lnput of carbou dloxlde to the atmosphere. Vuglaph s,,"'r,"112Es glE results f!o!_ recent papers by a nr.rnblr of biologlsts6on the conEribu_ -;i;;i;. rlon of rhe bio.phere to rhe grorrrh of Co2 1n rie atuospher" to the contrlburlon of fossll fuel coubusilon, esttoat;;l;;-thls rarlo are presented ln the flrst columr. rnthetr Apr1l igii,-ai"r"2 estlnated that the ratlo of the lrelght of carbon fron netot,nooa trrrl.Jto the erelght of carboo frou fosEil fuel burned ln thls nay have approaehed 1.0. rrre fouonrng """t"ry-i""-io;ii, *:l_1.-1:,"::,0:-1 :"!.the oor:.nJ cralued that increase 1n carbon dioxlde due to th! expani sion of folestly and agricuJ.ture nas at least half that due to il"" fo1r. In Augusr of 1977, rhe Natlonal Acadeey Scfeic.s f111lonUust lssued a report+ whlch attrlbuted the Greenhouse Effect toof foss11 coEbustlon and whlch recelved a considerable aoount of sensetlonal fuel publlclty. Thls has produced a rash of papers by rhe blol;;i;;;lo support thelr posltlon. In January of this year, IloodweliS-""J-.-lr:mber of other authors froo acadealc and oceanographic ccnters llshed a paper claiulng that the terrestrlal blomass appears to !ub_ be anet source of carbon dloxlde for the atnosphere whlch is po""itfygreater then that due to fossil fuel con-bustlon. the foliowln!1eek, Stulver6 publlshed resulrs r.".a-"po"-if57ii2-i"aro" whlch reported thet the net release of carbon dloxlde froa the blosphere 1n ihe ceutury prl0r to 1950 was tvice as great as that f!o; foss1l fuel coo_ bustlon. Even Lf 1t ls assumed thai the blospherLc release 1950, the contllbutlon of the blosphere up to the present tfr" "aopp.J-L ,o,ria stlll be 1.2 thar fron fossll fue1. t"tre iast four' arrlcles'ii"i-ipublished 1n Sclence. ra the present DoDrh, 1,fl.-:9.:.3.yere.atl w1J-son, pubushed an artlcle 1n Nature whlch sugportE the elaln ihat defolestatlon ha6 produced at least half as uuch carbon dloxlde in the atDosphere as can be attllbuted to foss1l fuel. Non, you ldlI reDeEbe! that eerller 1n this talk lt rras polnted out that 1f the lncrease ln catbon dl0xlde in the at'osphere ls arr" tofossil fuel conbustlon, about 502 of the CO2 belng released remalns ln the atoosphere and the rest 1s absorbed 1n llther the oceans or the co'tlnents. If thete have been substaDtlal releases of carbon dloxlde ln addltion to that whlch can be attllbuted to foss11 fuels, the natural -4slnks for carbon dloxlde Dust be larger and aore efflclent than pre_ viously esthated. Thlg would reduce the levels to whlch carbon dl_ oxlde has been proJected- to r.nctease. ?hls posslblllty 1s veheoe'tly denled by the oceanographers, who cla!.D thet the oceans cannot posslbiy absorb nuch nore carbon dloxlde. Hovever, lt 16 Ey lmpreeslon that the scleDce of oceaooglaphy has Dot a6 yet reached a slate of develop_ Eent lrhlch can Justl.fy such a posltlve claln. The culaetrt atatus of gclentlflc opLnion regardlng the carbon cycle ls sur@allzed ln Vugraph 7. First, curreut sctinttttc oplnlon overwhelnlngly favore attrlbutlng at'ospheric carbon dloxlde lncrease to fo6s11 fuel coobustlou. Holrever, Dost scientlats feel that r0ore research 1e needed to Bupport an unquallfled concluelon. Flna11y, soue aclentlats, partlculerly the blologlEts, clalm that part or all ti tne co2 lncrease arlses fron the destructloo of folests and othe! land b1ota. II. Pledlctlons on the slgaiflcances of lncreases ln atmospheric rust be based upon clLEete oodellng. Modellng cliDatlc effeits ls currently haadlcapped by an 1nab1llty to hsndle all the coDpllcated lEteractlons whlch are lmportant to pledlctlng ghe cllEate. Soo! of these are sholrn in Vugraph 8. C02 One iDteracrlon whlch ha6 not has yet been lncluded wlth any of sophlstlcatloo ln cll'ate nodels le the effect of eloudlness. clouds can reflect lneoalng vlslble aad ultravlolet radlatlon back into space lrlth greater efflclency than would occur at the glound. On the other hand' at thelr bottom surface they absorb outgolng radiatl0u aod the cloud tops also ealt lnftared radlatlor\ dependlng uton the teEpelature (that 1s altltude) at lrhlch the top 1s'located. fhe effect oi a cloud n111 thelefore depeod upon its slze, 1ts shepe, and the altltude at lrhlch lt ls loceted degree Another uncertalnty whlch has not, as yet, been handled ln any gleat deta1I ls the atDosphere - oceau clrculatlon - aea Burface teDpelature lnteractlon. Eow should the heat capaclty of the oceans be handled 1n vlev of the turbulence at the surface aod to whet depths are the oceans lnvolved ln lnteractlDg nlth the etooBphere? TheEe are laportant que6tlons because the etrtlre heat content of the atDosphere t"s equal to the heet content of Just lhe fl:ist thlee Deters of the oceans. A third uncertalnty ln rnodellog ls the iotelactlon betweeE the seasons and longterE cllmate treods. Ia present oodele, the ehaages vhlch are predlcted for lncreaslng carbon dloxLde concentratlons are calculaled wlth legpect to a constant clLDate, that is a perpetual epring or sumer seaaotr. It ls quite posslble thet thls assl@ptlon 1s luadequate. lor example, the best accepted explanatlon for the on-set of the Lce ages ls that orbltal and other changes resulE in the earth euteling a plrlod -5ln whlch 6u@ers are coore! and vlnters are lrar'er than no'-al. Thus , thls produces uore preclpltation and faster glacier grolrth durr'g the wlnter and less Eelliog duling the srr@e!, Flnally, a serlous questlon has been ralsed as to lrhether c1fuate 1s really predlctable. Thls posslblllty nas ralsed by LorenzS 1n 1970. He drew an aaalogy to eathenatlcal oodellng. Many BatheDatl_ cal oodels of coropllcated phenonena are based upon a large nruber of noa-llaear equatlons .olth a varlety of cmplex feedback interactlons, If the l[ath$atlcLan ls fortunate, when a model of thls type ls run on the couputet, {t rr111 converge and glve hfu a deflalt,e .rri".r. Such a Dodel ls called transltlve. On the other hand, when a couplicated nodel 1s tested, 1t ls not at aIl unusual to flnd that the solutlon v111 trot converge but w111 oscillate back and forth vlthout produclng a stable aasner. Such a nodel is ca11ed 1ntlansltlve. There 1s alio an lDterredlate co[dltlon. occasloually, a nodel Ls found to converge lnltla11y upon a deflnlte a!.s!rer but after a sholt perlod to 1,,,t ofi thls solutlon aad settle down upon anocher one. Aflet a E.coid io_ definite perLod, lt will J rnp up and couverge agaln upon a thlrd solu_ tlon and eo on produclng a nr:mber of appalent solutlons 1n a randou DaDner. Such a mdel 1s ca11ed alnost transitlve (or alDost lntran_ sltlve). Lorenz polnted out that the cll.sate ls a systeE whLch is the result of a 1a!ge number of non-lLnear energy lnputs betlreea whlch there are l0any corDpllcated feedback lnteractlons. He therefole Euggested that the cllnate nay be a natula1 exauple of an alEoat tlansltlve ;ysten whlch does not heve a stable solut1on. It !1111 settle dorrn lnto an apparently stable condltion but then after a randou perlod w111 J uEp over to a[other apparent stabillty, etc. It ls not certain, hovever, that such a pesslmlgtlc outlook Justlfied and lt has not stopped the development of uany roodels of the Creenhouse Effect and other cllnate phenoEena. The sluplest of these are the one-diDenslonal oodels in whlch the Ltrput at the earthrs 16 ls averaged over the globe and detalled caleulatloas are earrled out to predlct veltlcal verlatlons. such nodels.do not requile uuch conputer t lae and can lnclude detailed treatDent of vertlcal jheumena such as radlatlve transfer. They suffer, however, flou the fact that the lnfluence of latltudlnal varlatlons 1s corpletely lgnored. gurface The next roore coupllcated oodele are so-called zonally avereged uodele Ln shlch varlous latltude reglon€ are treated separately ln e trro-dlDensional oanirer. These take nore co!0puter tlae but are stil1 Bhort enough to per:E1t conslderable sophlstlcatLon ln the calculatLoos. They Eti1l suffer, however, from an lacomplete treatl0ent of letltudlnal lntelactlons. In 6plte of thls, oany nodelers feel that they are the nost valuable type of aodel upon which to work, The nost c@plicated models are the so-called general circu- latlon nodels rhlch are three-dlaenslonal 1n character. These take very long tlnes to c@pute snd the ratlo of real to mschlne tlme can -6be as low as 10 to 1. A great deal of the coEputer tlne ls spent ln uovlng large masses of alr around the globe and recalculatlng the enyoptlc proflles every 10 to 15 Dlnutes. Thelr Edvantage ls that latltudl.nal effects ele coupletely lncluded but the sophlstlcstlon rlth vhlch vertlcal effects ean be treated ls ll.mlted due to the tlme and e: z g 324 (D a Foinl Borrow o o I Swedish Flighls Mouno Loo Americon Somoo Soulh Pole 6 32? -t J 3 leo E H a F E (L *. o (J 3rB 316 314 312 f958 t960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 WGRAPH 3 POSSIELE LIMITING SCENARIOS FOR THE USE OF FOSSIL FUELS @ o.3"zo GRowrH RATE TIMES DEPLETION FACTOR (eq. lll 2% GROWTH RATE TO 2025 FOLLOWED 8Y SYMMETRICAL DECREASE '5 C' o E, €t ,; o 28.O E 3 24.O lr, a l 20.o J lr, f, l! J r6.o fr B t2.o (/) E l^, F (E d.*d e'ddu8d 8: YEAR pddd """ WGRAPH 4 PROJECTED ATiIOSPHERIC GOz CONCENTRATIONS RELATIVE TO 1860 z o tr 6.0 5.0 (r F Gt o z o to, o o 4'o 3.0 I(f UJ il 2.o U) o F UJ tr J ul (f 1.0 1975 995 1 201 5 2035 2055 YEAR 2075 VUGRAPH 5 CO: EXCHANGE (Billions Of Tons Of Carbon Per Year) ATMOSPHERE 5 576 56 2-3 0 9 FOSSIL A a FUELS ON OCEANS CONTINENTS WGRAPII 6 RATIo 0F C02 DERIVED FR0t'l BIOSPHERE VS FOSSIL FUEL lsr AUTHOR JOURNAL DATE 0,1-1,0 ADAI'IS SCIENCE q/u77 0,5 BOLIN SCIENCE 5/6/77 0,g-1,6(1) }{OOD}IELL SCIENCE LlT3/78 2,0(2) STUVIER SCIENCE Ll19/78 0,5 hlILSON NATURE 5/4/78 RATIO (1) PRESENT RATE Q) 1850-1950 WGRAPH 7 CURRENT STATUS OF SCIENTIFIC OPINION l. Current Opinion Overwhelmingly Favors Atlributing Atmospheric COz lncrease To Fossil Fuel Combuslion ll. Most Scientists Feel More Research ls Needed To Support An Unquaftlied Conclusion lll. Some Scientists Claim That Part Or All Of The COz Increase Arises From The Destruction Of Forests And Other Land Biota. WGRAPH 8 UNCERTAINTIES WHICH LIMIT CLIiIATE MODELING I. CLOUDINESS A. Effect Ol A Cloud Depends On Size, Shape and Position. II. ATTIOSPHERE - OCEAN INTERACTIONS A. How Should Heat Capacity Be Handled B. To What Depth ls The Ocean lnvolved III. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN SEASONS AND LOI{G TERM TRENDS IV. IS CLIIIATE REALLY PREDICTABLE A. Could Be An "Almost Transitive " System Which Fluctuates Stable States. Between WGRAPH 9 TEIIPERATURE EFFECT OF DOUBLING COz d Y J ll, 420 ul 3n u, o o Ft0 I L r! I o 60" 50' /,o" 30" I.AIIIUDE WGRAPH 10 HOW PREDICTEDAT COilPARES WITH RECENT TEIIPERATURES o o F r3 LrJ t2 z, a l'r, - .----I--T-_--r---r rllrrrllr (r ll o. ro 5 9 lr, (r I f F E. td (L Eslimoled Polor 7 6 5 trj (J L E, :) a o Eslimoled Globol Meon Temperoture 4 3 2 I lrJ o z -l (9 I (J Temperolur€ -oo. o trJ F Reg ions Approximbte Ronge of Undislurbed Climole in Posl Few Cenluries t850 ---t' Observed Meon Nor lhern Hemisphere """ Temperolure ":itll \n'GRAPTI 11 EFFECT OF COz ON AN INTERGLACIAL SCALE LAST PRESEN' rNlERGrACrAt- LAST GLACIAT -roo -75 TIME IN THOUSANDS OF YEARS 25 rED TURAI, WGRAPH 12 IiIPLICATION OF PREDICTED GREENHOUSE EFFECT t. PERMANENT SIIIOW COVER A]IID FLOATING SEA ICE W LL BE REDUCED A. Negligible Effect On Sea Level II. PROBABLY NO EFFECT ON POLAR ICE SHEETS A. West Antarctic lce Sheet Most Critical III. LENGTH OF GROWING SEASOI{ WOULD INCREASE A. l"C Temperature Rise Adds 1O Days IV. CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION PATTERNS WILL BENEFIT SOIIE AREAS AND HARM OTHERS. A. Models Can Not Predict These Effects B. Can Study Evidence From Climatic Optimum 4000-8000 Years Ago. MOST OF THE USSR'S VAST AGRICULTURAL LAND BASE LIES LATITUDINALLY NORTH OF THE UNITED STATES c) 4l b E ts I sovrET AcRrcuLTuRAL LArrrtrg WGRAPH 14 RECENT MEETINGS ON GREENHOUSE EFFECT I . }{ORLD ]VIETEOROLOGICAL ORCANIZATION scIENTIFIcW0RKSHOP0NATIYIOSPHERIcc02 II, NOV. 28 - DEC. ERDA - }'IORKSHOP 3, !976, ENVIRoNI{ENTAL EFFECT T'IIARCH II I. I'IASHINGTON, 0F c02 FR0t'/i D, FOsslL FUEL C0MBUSTI0N 7-LL, L977, I'IIAI'II BEACFI, FLA' SCOPE BUDGET I^IORKSHOP ON hIORLD CARBON I'4ARCH IV, 2L-26, !977, HAIVIBURG, GERtvlANY I IASA CARBON DIOXIDE, CLIlqATE AND SOCIETY FEB. ?L-24, Lg7B, C. LAXENBURG, AUSTRIA VUGRAPIT 15 }{ORKING GROUP REPORTS I. THE CARBON CYCLE A. B, II. CONFIDENCE IN l.lILL BE CLII,IATE II'IPACT OF 2 X 2-3'C 10 YEARS AGO COz INCREASE DEPENDING ON IIOII CLOUDS ACT c02 oUESTI0N vs. A. I'IODELS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN BIOSPHERE FLUX l'lUST BE ESTABLISHED WHAT A. rrr, - IIASA }{ORKSHOP ENqBGY I4AN CAN AFFORD {l4IEqlEs 5-10 YR. TII'IE l,lINDO}l TO ESTABLISH },IHAT I4UST BE DONE. B. IT IS PREMATURE TO LII'IIT USE OF FOSSIL FUELS BUT THEY SHOULN BE ENCOURAGED. NOT WGRAPH 16 ERDA PROPOSALS FOR IIVII'IEDIATE FUNDING ($1,50 fiM ro sTART s00N uP T0 $9,8 fiM/YR,) 1, BETTER ESTIflIATE 0F F0SSIL FUEL C02 0UTPUT BIOSPHERE 2. USE CARBON ISOTOPES TO GET INPUT 3, DIRECT ASSESSIVIENT OF BIOSPHERE INPUT tS; fiM-I 4. EXPAND AND II{PROVE [.,IONITORING 5, TRANSFER 0F ClZ INTo DEEPER oCEAN ($5 6, BUFFERING 0F C02 ABSORPTI0N IN 0CEAN FROtYl NET}'IORK mM) WGRAPH 17 PROJECTS STARTING AFTER INITIAL PROGRAI'IS ARE UNDER }{AY ($1.26 fifi TO START - RISES TO S5.O Mft/YR) 7, ARE SHALLOI' WATER CARBONATES DISSOLVING 8, RESPONSE 0F BI0TA T0 C02 INCREASE 9. BETTER I'IODELS OF CARBON CYCLE 10, c02 EXCHANGE ACROSS AIR-SEA INTERFACT 11. FLUX OF ORCANIC CARBON INTO & WITHIN SEA 12, II'IPR0VE C02 MEASUREMENT T3, TECHNI0UES DISSOLUTION OF DEEP SEA CNCO3 AS FINAL SINK \nIGRAPH 18 SUI*II'IARY I i I I I I, II, III, COz RELEASE m0ST LIKELY souRcE INADVERTENT CLII',IATE I{0DIFICATI0N, pREVAILING oPINI0N ATTRIBUTES C}Z INCREASE T0 FOSSIL FUEL C0IIBUSTI0N' GL0BAL TEI'IPERATURE DoUBLINC C02 c0uLD INCREASE AVERAGE 2O5O IV. 0F A.D. (10"C l.,lORE RESEARCH PREDICTED IS NEEDED l'C T0 3'c BY AT POLES). ON t'lOST ASPECTS OF GREENHOUSE EFFECT rl, 5-10 yR, TItvlE }ltNDOl'l T0 GET NECESSARY INFORwIATION VI.tvlAJORRESEARCHEFF0RTBEINGCONSIDEREDBYDOE