+l '' i I t r'i I I PROPOSED EXXON RESEARCH PROGRAlvl TO HELP ASSESS TtlE GREENHOUSE EFFECT. : I t I I I I I i t) EDl,lARD A, 6ARVEY HENRY SHAtll I,IALLACE S, BROECKER TARO TAKAHASHI PRESENTED TO: DR. LESTER I{ACHTA tJ AIR RESOURCES LABORATORY NATIONAL OCEAN IC AND AT}1 OSPHERIC ADIVI I NI STRAT ION IvlARCH 26, 1g7g I I I l I PRO6RAI'I 6OAL ,d USE EXXON EXPERTISE AND FACILITIES TO llELP DETERIVIINE THE llOUSE EFFECT v LIKELIIlOOD OF A GLOBAL GREEN- RATIOl'lALE FOR EXXON INVOLVE14ENT I DEVELOP EXPERTISE TO ASSESS TtlE POSSIBLE IIVI PACT OF TllE GREENHOUSE EFFECT ON EXXON BUSINESS \./ O FORPI RESPONSIBLE TEAI'1 THAT CAN CREDIBLY CARRY BAD NEl^lS, IF ANY, TO THE CORPORATION I PROVIDE THE GOVERNl'lENT l^lITH HIGrl OUALITY INFORIViATION TO REDUCE TllE BUSINESS RISK OF INADECIUATE GOVERNtvlENT POLICY \l O GENERATE IrlPORTANT SCIENTIFIC INFORtvlATION THAT l,{ILL ENHANCE THE EXXON IlvlACE AND PROVIDE PUBLIC RELATIONS VALUE ct') trJ d. lrl a- ll-J O a => E e, -t z, F (9 LrJ o Lrl tr^l (J E, o EE O- =< e l'l.IF o F< t-- C.) := et (t) lJJ e. GF lrl lJl F tl-t ==)ct) tlJ.l UI (J lrj < Lr- l.r.I O F(J LI- (D a uJo F u-t aLl-J n = o (J O F o o(J r.-. F f- &. tv, O trj o- lJJ c/) r=- c9 c)<=7 e, G, LI. r-... (J O- l.r.l c/) &,F al.Lt LrJ l-Ll - AO.-H - c/, =f, o u-=LL F -< (3O x-(-) >< F{ I.J.J o lrl tv, c\ u-l =oLtOCJU) (v, z, Lr- rJ- < F eECJ) ::) < .i, r-t- o E o ct) (\ -tllo OZ,CJ E= l- lrl cJ) e :=< F(J -,< HF(J F=> -c€u.lu ry F r".{ lrl (.)F< Elr O FAr lrl O(J F< (J tra := (a OOH (J c,/', lrl O(J CJO - F&, (J o \ (o lJ-J< IJH l- e, (J GI 7 lrl O= (J F< o- &. J -> trl J- ct) (t) e, o- < .-t-. (-> x lrl a -, tJ-l Et c9 z, &, oe, F< lll Ct) (J I J F{ F< d, e. F trj c/) lrl OE, ct) E,O U-l FtrA 'l c/) Ll.t tJJ (_) &, U.t z, ry, LLJ lrl trq r< u.- o lJt F Clt r-{ H l-' r.l.J c/) ct) uJ :E o(J=o- E (Je,llto -F t.LJo-Ltj< q9 CJ) CD Lrl z.oz,a (J< XlXtr.t UJ Z, trt C\ U.I C\ =E (3(-)OO_ (J O (J ct) bJ e, lz. lrj Lt.l F(J .2, x i--. PROPOSED PROGRAlvlS FUt'lDING .P.ROGRAlvlS OCEAf'l SAtvlPL I NG st PROGRAIVI TANKER SAt'lPLINC SYSTEtvl DRILLINC SHIP STATION DOE / EX X O N EXXON LAND BIOTA SAfvlPLING PROGRAlvl C-T3 AND C-1'I SAlvlPLING EXXON J l. I I I ; I di I .l I I I I OBJECTIVES 0 DETER14 INE FLUX ,-l = OF OCEAN SAIlPLING COZ FLUX BET}lEEN AIR AND (TRANSFER COEFFICI ENT) DRIVIN€ FORCE DETERlvlINED FUNCTI0N 0F c0r LOCATIOI{, ETC.-ATM , OCEAN X (DRIVINC FROII TANKERS AS COc tsw ' FORCE) A TEIqPERATURE, TRANSFER COEFFICIENT DETERIVIIl'lED FROf'l DR ILLING SHIPS BY TRACER STUDY AS A FUNCT ION OF l^lEATlJER, SEA-STATE, ,.1 ETC I t cR0sscllEcK RATE 0F C0z EXCHANGE ACR0SS TllE AIRSEA INTERFACE USIN6 C-14 RELEASED DURING ATOIi IC BO14B TESTS AS TRACER I I i i l I t I I TANKER c U, PROGRAivl !\lILL SAl/lPLE CONTINUOUSLY ATlvl 0SPtl ERIC C0Z T0 t 0,5 pprlv 0 CEAN C0Z T0 t 0,5 ppMV SEA AND AIR TEI\lPERATURE TO t 0,1"c TANKERS RELATIVE HUIVI IDITY BAROllETRIC PRESSURE SALINITY SEAl^lATER 0 ",r' c pH TANKER l,lILL ALSO SAII PLE SURFACE SEAl^lATER C-1II ON A PERIODIC BASIS FOR DEPTH THERIVIOf'4ETERS t.lILL BE USED PERIODICALLY TO DETERf'IINE THE TElvlPERATURE PROFILE OF THE OCEAN ALONG THE TANKER ROUTE I I I i TANKER 3 ,/ PROGRA14 (CONTINUED) TANKER l^lILL BE ABLE TO REPEAT lvlEASUREIVIENTS ALONG A PARTICULAR ROUTE ANYl^lHERE FROf\l 1O TO qO TI14ES PER YEAR DEPENDINC ON ROUTE LENGTrl AND PETROLEUlv! DEIl AND c c TANKER PROGRA[I LL BE EXPANDED FROlvl ONE ROUTE DURING THE FIRST YEAR TO FIVE BY THE THIRD YEAR l^l SOI'1E TANKER ROUTES CROSS AREAS hIII ERE l^lORK HAS BEEN DONE ,t 0 PROPOSED RELATIVELY I N TllIS LITTLE PROGRAII OCEANOGRAPHIC TllE DATA COLLECTED !^I ILL BE USED TO DETERlnlI NE PC02 LEVELS ON A REGIONAL AND SEASONAL BASIS IN BOTH THE ATlvlOSP11ERE AND THE OCEANS t. f. i r tr' I I i L ) t t t I I DEEP WATER I,IELLINGS ANO TANKER ROUTES A /"ta: $bo oooo W a 0O o o.s .= o '- a. - .qr Equa -t tor fr'-'=. '.s, / I . I ! !I t I i I $\ 'oonn otut, I Cfloo*" Tanker Sampling Tracks I ', i pcoz 'I 0 - atm. IN THE SURFACE WATER OF THE ATLAI''ITIC 0CEAN - JULY 1972 MARCH '1973 1) 5: !) l, It @t 12 .?a #,li* 9l AlI ( lJ Exxon Atlantic tanker routes. ( pCOe l0-b atm. I}I THE SURFACE WATERS OF THE PACiFiC AUGUST <3 1973 . OCEAN JUNE ]974 Xtr Exxon routes ( Pacific tanker rou tes . *-(: 0ther tanker routes I 'l I I .. I I I DRILLING SHIP i I i PROGRAI'I ! i I ll I it I :i I I 0 EXXON CONTRACTED DRILLING SHIPS ARE PRESENTLY EXPLORING lvlANY DEEP l4lATER AREAS AROUND THE I^IORLD g, i DRILL IN OCEAN DEPTHS l-lELL OVER lOOO FEET, SOlnlETIIVlES AS I'IUCH AS 5OOO FEET RElvlAIN IN ONE LOCATION FOR TO THREE 14ONTHS i I I I I lr I i l. ThlO t I II ! t I l t'I I 0 J AT THESE DEPTHS, THE OCEAN IS USUALLY WELL STRATIFIED, AND IS SUITABLE FOR TRACER GAS STUDY i; t it I I I I DRILLINC SllIP *J PROGRAfVI (COl'lTII. UED) O t{EASURElvlENT OF SURFACE l^lATER RADON-222 PROFILES AND l,lEATHER DATA CAN BE USED TO DETERII INE THE RATE OF GAS EXCI.IANGE AS A FUNCTION OF l^lIND SPEED AND SEA STATE O DEEP l,{ATER SAI'lPLINC CAN ALSO BE PERFOR14ED TO ENHANCE OUR UNDERSTANDINC OF DEEP OCEAN IXCHANGE 0F c0z, RAD0N-222, AND 0THER cHEtl IcAL TRAcERs uf <./, A -l ll-I o F = d, o Lr- : Cl) O GT lrJ C-) lrl O (J Itl Et J =c\ FV,(L :D o F< oF(JO< tv, lrl (9OEo_ul - H =- =e,O-F{UJ Olrl e, J:4o< LD FF lrJ l! o -I=?=U-l< O< LI.F< d. od. lrj =7 F ) cr) lrJ I c.n lr I trl I r-l c) tra e, llO d, oCJ F lrl c, lrl e. J GIF C-1 l.t.l (J LL a Je, -O o c./.) lrl t.Lt J- ct) < o- z, = = ctJ -t F r-{ FU) ao F{ r-. IJFO O lJ_ (-9 ?V. C/' 7 tre e, z. trl =7 O --I< F< LD ts< CD El Ct) lrJ =) e, :D C} ) INFORIVlATION ATII OS P HE R I bp' YIELDS (COllTINUED) C C I RCU LAT I ON + Tl.lE VARIATIONS l,lILL HELP DETERfVI INE CLOBAL AIR CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND COULD BE A USEFUL CONTRIBUTION TO THE TRANSIENT TRACES PROGRAlvl BEGINNING UNDER DOE FUNDINC NOl^l C PC0Z + ltlILL BE USED TO ESTABLISH GLOBAL sl SEAl^lATER CIRCULATION PATTERNS BY CROSSIlrlG UPl.lARD AND DOl,{Nl^lARD ADVECTION ZONES THE SEASONAL AND YEARLY EXCHANCE OF SURFACE AND DEEP hlATER l,lILL BE 14ONITORED 0CEANIC AND ATPl0SPHERIc eC02 + 1,{ILL BE USED TO ESTABLISH THE CONCENTRAT-ION GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERFACE I l q { 0CEAN I + I I I ( I t I t f t F.l II i t t I li t I v I INFORI'IATION YIELDS (CONTINUED) + THE CONCENTRATION \dr' vi VARIATIONS ACCORDING TO SEASON AND REGION hlILL BE USED TO CENERATE I,I ORE ACCURATE C0z EXCHANGE IvI0DELS OCEAN TEIVIPERATURE PROFI LFS + }lILL BE USED TO DETERlvlINE TtlE THICKNESS OF THE SURFACE l.lATER LAYER AND ITS VARIATION ACCORDING TO SEASON AND REGION + TII IS l,lILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORII ATION ON OCEAN CIRCULATION PATTERNS AND l,lIND EFFECTS ON OCEAN II IXING SALINITY + t.lILL BE UsED TO DEFINE OcEAN l^lATER IVIASSES + IT IS ALsO USED TO cORREcT THE RAl^l rC02 lvltASUREtt'lENTS I i I I I I I I I i a Ir I Fa o CJ c.r) a 'J O F >. 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F u-=orJ LL= OJ cr1 < F=u)J=F{ -l ?FOlrtFtrl cld \ Jz, ur < (J clt a :E T.< &, F u-t c) (.J > LrJ Fr = Ll- lrj e. lrJ-d,F OOF:3Hlrl lrl CcIOHLTJtJ-l oL)=atY H Z.F l4JLdtrJFF=< (5 FLLE:f.A O d, n oc/) c9 -J E, a "l PROGRA14 RESULTS AND 0 A e IlvlPROVED AIR-OCEAN CARBON 0 ADDITIONAL , IVELY INEXPENSIVE BENEFITS EANS OF P ROVIDIl\lG HIGHLY USEFUL INFORII ATION ON YEARLY , SEASONAL AND REG IONAL ATl{OSPHERIC AND OCEAN I C PROCESSES RELAT INFORllAT OCEANIC CI RCULATION II ON ON EXCHANGE llODEL BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND PATTERNS t' { i, 0 t ON THE FINDINGS ISSUED JOINTLY l^lITH LAf4ONT-DOHERTY AND OTHER PART ICIPATIN6 INSTIREPORTS FROI'I EXXON i, t tt. r TUTIONS I SAlvlPLI SCIENT OF THE N G VESSELS l^lILL I FIC IVIEASURE14ENTS AVAILABLE TO ENHANCE CARBON BUDGET RELATED AREAS BE OR FOR ADDITIONAL I q OUR UNDERSTANDING (. I t j I 4 THEORY LAND OF INCREASE IN ATI\1OSPI-IERIC t, o FOSSIL FUEL S0URCE 0F ISOTOPES c - I3 COlvlBUSTION coz t4AY B OTA SAlvlPLING coz t\lAY BE DUE To OR FOREST CLEARINC BE IDENTIFIED BY CARB0N IN THE ATIVI OSPlJERE IS PRESENT IN FOSSIL FUELS AND P LANTS c-1rl IS PRESENT ONLY rC I IN PLANTS O IVIEASURING RELATIVE CHANGE OF C-13 AND C-14 IN STORED BIOlulASS CAN YIELD INFORlllATION ON THE S0URcE 0F THE C0z THA'T lrlAS pREsENT DURING PLANT GROl^lTH I I I I t I I I ! 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ID I lrl a tJ (J Cr) = tv, (9 o tv, CL a u-J ct) o o- O E 14 a -, o x x trl (f, O tfr 4 SZ I = e, (5 o e. CLA lrl &,o u-J to Lr.r C\ €:. o€+ \J u-l a ::E o- ) F = E (9 E c) E CL IJ E lJ.I lrl o'-> crF od, (J =EO cJ) a r.d t _tF tral 7 C')< lrl J ID G, L&l z, trt -t (!, -, ct) = (D :E<= (J e, &, ue, u) ct) o_ LI crlO lrl -t r< F- F< z, r<< o E d. (9 o d, o(9 a o=ct) CL C" C9 z. tv, e F =- trl = &, o 1l- =(9 tV, o e, CL F =, lJ-t = rrj e, C,) lrl = trl z, .-l =o FF = =)< oc) o o- (JO Elrl aY, = c Ll.l o ) PROPOSED PHASE \./ 0 SCllEDULE PROGRA14 (CONTINUED) II (FIVE-YEAR PROGRAlvl) IlvlPLEfvlENT FULL-SCALE TANKER UP TO FIVE DIFFERENT ROUTES PRO6RA14 (t ll US I NG $/n 1, 4 GOVERN- IVlENT) c CONTINUE DRILLINC L0CATI0NS 0 yl Sl{IP (r$/n 50 PRO6RAlvl AT SUITABLE EXX0N) CONTINUE LAND BIOTA f{EASUREI{ENT l^lI DI'FFTRENT SOURCES ( r$/n B0 EXX0N TH ) GEOGRAPt{ICALLY = (-D e, o e, oJ J ---) Lt- Lt- o @ t\ (tt U) F Ol FI o (J E td F = F (, t-Ll {oo o) F{ t(.l oo ol r{ C\I co ol F-l .{l col Ctt I .{l O oo or r{ Ot O) t-\ F.{ U) IJ ---l- o- o Lft o trr O trl o t.ci (, , o @ Ln r NIN I d. Ll-l. CJ) U) _t -J .-t t..\ t\\ tf.l r-l F-{ Fl oo(ooo lft o l\ -f --t N1 Fl OO(OFl NI\ Fl (O Fl t- ootnrn OO I.J.l [n LrJ F -l _t Z F. z. d- z, F- d. <.9 e. Z. F(J uJo rlo e. r...2 d F. .,-\ O-= F O J f\ [J1 r o r cl I l rjr r cc 1 O rn (,/> o_-l-- ct) (-D J J d. a i t. I GREENHOUSE TFFECT Fundi ng $ t. K 30 K Develop background 20 Oevelop research program J. Obtain ER&E management Advise Exxon Corp. & of 5. Advise 6. Plan program with ( Exxon DOE 5k affiliates International, ty EUSA, etc.) 9. 0rder and assemb'le i nstrumentatl 0. Begin Phase I - Tanker No. I partnersh.ip on Land biota measurements to DOE ish initiai results 0rder additionai equipment Begin Phase II - 5 tankers ER&E IP 50k ER&E 1P 125 k ER&E iP k k k 30 k 30 K 425 k 1.3 P ER&E ER&E ER&E ER&E IP ER&E DoE 6P 9 drilling ships 2 different land biota sources Awareness anq corporate dissemination of i nformati on overa lI prob lem P 5k 275 25 75 - Drilling Ship Prepare and submit proposals P IP 'I 0esignate program manager 5. ER&E program B. - 'l 1P affiliates Arrange universi Publ ER&E approval 7. l. 2, 3. 1. ER&E GBL IP Source on 6.8 M DOE 225 k 160 k ER&E ER&E 70 k ER&E 0.1 P Units I