IN F O R M A T IO N A L M E M O R A N D U M

TO:

INTERESTED PARTIES

FROM:

OUR PRINCIPLES PAC

SUBJECT: DELEGATE MATH UPDATE – NEW YORK REALITY
CHECK
DATE:

APRIL 21, 2016

Following the results of the recent primaries, conventions and caucuses, below is an
update on the path to the Republican nomination. Despite Trump’s victory in New
York on Tuesday night, he still has a nearly impossible path to secure the 1,237
delegates needed to win the nomination on the first ballot. As a consequence, we
are confident that there will be an open convention – and that Trump will not be the
Republican nominee.
Our projections for the April delegate contests assumed that Trump would win his
home state, as Governor Kasich and Senator Cruz have also done. In fact, as the
USA Today reported on April 18 (“Donald Trump Looking For Delegate Sweep In
New York Primary”), we projected that Trump would win all 95 delegates, though he
obviously again came up a bit short.
Looking ahead to the 5 primaries on April 26, our planning assumes Trump can win
nearly all of the bound delegates without improving his very slim chances.
Yesterday morning, the Trump campaign apparently released a memo claiming a road
ahead that is, quite frankly, detached from reality. There is no plausible scenario by
which Trump can secure 1,400 bound delegates prior to the start of the
convention. In order to secure 1,400 delegates, he would have to win 82% of all
remaining delegates, a task simply not possible for him or any candidate at this stage
in the process.
THE SIMPLE MATH
As we have pointed out numerous times, the most straightforward way to attain 1,237
delegates is to win at least 50% of the delegates at stake each election day. As of
Paid for by Our Principles PAC. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
www.OurPrinciplesPAC.com.

 today, 1,798 delegates have been contested and Trump has won approximately
847 of them or less than 47%, well below the required 50% plus 1.
That means that in order to secure the required number of delegates, Trump will now
have to carry at least 58% of ALL the remaining 674 delegates still at stake and also
means he will have to carry approximately 63% of the remaining bound delegates
to secure the nomination.
There is no scenario where this nomination process will conclude before the last 5
states hold their elections. Even if Trump received 100% of the committed delegates
between now and the June 7th primaries, he would be short of the 1,237 mark on the
morning of June 7th.
Looking ahead, there will be pivotal contests in Indiana, Nebraska, Oregon,
Washington, West Virginia, Montana, New Jersey, South Dakota and of course
California. From these and the other remaining states, there are dozens of viable and
plausible outcomes that will leave Trump well short of the required 1,237 delegates.
THE FULL MATH
To take a fuller look at the very difficult task facing Trump, let’s quickly walk through
all the things that can go right for him, but still leave him short.
Even after his win in NY Tuesday night…
Trump can win ALL the committed delegates in Pennsylvania, Delaware and New
Jersey…
AND win the large majority of delegates in Connecticut, Indiana, and California…
AND win a plurality of delegates in Maryland, West Virginia, Oregon, Washington
and New Mexico and STILL FALL SHORT of the 1,237 threshold.
Our planning has always taken into account that some places will be better for Trump
and some much worse, but since the beginning of this process in Iowa, Trump has
needed to win anywhere from 49% to 62% of the remaining delegates following each
election night. Tuesday night he dipped from needing 62% to needing 58%. Even if
he were to win Indiana, that number would dip to only 57% and then we would
expect that number to continue to climb past 60% as we get to June 7.
Paid for by Our Principles PAC. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
www.OurPrinciplesPAC.com.

 PERCENTAGE OF DELEGATES TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN AFTER EACH ELECTION TO REACH 1237
!

Iowa

Super Tuesday

After New York

57% 54% 54% 56% 58%
53% 54% 55% 55%
50% 50% 49% 49% 52%

61% 62%

62% 64%
58% 59% 57%

67%

24-May

17-May

10-May

3-May

26-Apr

19-Apr

16-Apr

9-Apr

5-Apr

3-Apr

22-Mar

15-Mar

12-Mar

10-Mar

8-Mar

6-Mar

5-Mar

1-Mar

23-Feb

20-Feb

9-Feb

1-Feb

Delegate % Needed
Based on Upcoming
Election Scenarios

Trump needs 58% of all remaining to secure the nomination in advance of the convention. To date,
the Trump average of delegates he wins per-state is only 43%.
Looking forward, these projections assume Trump wins in CT, DE, MD, PA, RI, WV, OR, and
WA and Trump losses in only NE. These are VERY conservative assumptions used to illustrate the
difficulty of his path to amassing 1,237 bound delegates by the morning on June 8.

CONCLUSION
So, what’s next? Millions of Republican voters in 15 states will head to the polls on 6
different election days over the next 46 days and decide whether or not they want to
put Trump in charge of the party of Lincoln and Reagan, and in the process hand the
Presidency to another Clinton and put the Senate back under liberal Democratic
control.
As we have done since January, Our Principles PAC will continue to educate voters
about Trump’s conservativism of convenience on policy issues important to
conservative voters as well as about Trump’s embarrassing professional and personal
record.

Paid for by Our Principles PAC. Not authorized by any candidate or candidate's committee.
www.OurPrinciplesPAC.com.