City of Houston PRELIMINARY BUDGET SUMMARY GENERAL FUND FISCAL YEAR 2017 July 1, 2016 - June 30, 2017 MAYOR SYLVESTER TURNER APRIL 15, 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS Mayor’s Letter ……………………………………………………………………… 2 Forward Looking Statement ……………………………………………………… 4 Organization Chart …………………………….………………………………….. 5 Basis of Budgeting and Accounting ……………………………………………... 6 Houston Demographics & Economic Conditions ………………………………. 8 Budgetary Challenges …………………………………………………………….. 16 City Initiatives: Stabilizing the Budget in a New Downturn……………………. 19 Closing the FY2017 Gap …………..……………………………………………... 21 FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Summary ………………………………….. 26 FY2017 General Fund Revenues ……………..………………………………… 28 FY2017 General Fund Expenditures ………….………………………………… 29 Next Steps – FY2018 at a Glance …………………………………………….… 30 CITY OF HOUSTON Sylvester Turner Mayor P.O. Box 1562 Houston, Texas 77251-1562 Telephone – Dial 311 www.houstontx.gov To: Citizens, Honorable Members of City Council and the Honorable City Controller I am pleased to present the preliminary General Fund budget for the fiscal year which begins July 1, 2016, and ends June 30, 2017 (FY2017). I am not anticipating significant changes, but I stress that these figures are subject to revision given the fact that I am presenting them nearly a month before the formal budget document is to be released. We are able to provide this preliminary budget well ahead of the normal schedule because of the focus my administration has put on our finances since I was elected. Cost increases, voter imposed revenue limitations, a broken appraisal system and the economic downturn combined to create a $160 million budget shortfall - the largest fiscal challenge the City has faced since before the Great Recession. At $2.3 billion, this budget totals about $82 million less expenditures than the current FY2016 appropriation. This is especially significant when juxtaposed against the $60 million of contractual and mandated cost increases we are forced to cover in FY2017. By bringing all parties to the table to engage in shared sacrifice, we closed the gap, reduced spending and started building the foundation for change that will address the City’s structural budget problems. Each City department, the employee unions, the Tax Increment Reinvestment Zones, City Council and various other parties have worked together to identify cost savings and efficiencies while also preserving a healthy fund balance, minimizing employee layoffs and maintaining the critical City services our residents rely on and deserve. This budget includes the elimination of 54 vacant positions and 30 to 40 layoffs, the majority of which we hope to accomplish through attrition. I made a decision that there would be no significant reductions to park and library operations because they have been hit hard in the past. These departments provide critical services to our most vulnerable populations, especially during hard economic times. It makes no sense to cut them further. Although there have been cost reductions identified within the police and fire departments, there will be no layoffs of police officers or fire fighters. In fact, we are including funding for an additional police cadet class, for a total of five classes, and looking at ways to streamline operations to get more officers back on the street. The new Turnaround Houston program to help the hard to employ will continue in FY17 and we are putting together an expanded summer jobs program for our youth. I hope Houston’s major employers will join in. This budget was balanced using both recurring and non-recurring initiatives. If non-recurring items had been taken off the table, there would have been drastic cuts in City services and another 1,235 City employees would have lost their jobs. I was not prepared to do that to the residents of this great City or our municipal workforce. Council Members: Brenda Stardig Jerry Davis Ellen R. Cohen Dwight A. Boykins Dave Martin Steve Le Greg Travis Karla Cisneros Robert Gallegos Mike Laster Larry V. Green Mike Knox David W. Robinson Michael Kubosh Amanda Edwards Jack Christie Controller: Chris Brown The recurring initiatives mark the start of institutionalizing a new way of running City government. We have streamlined operations, eliminated redundancies and forced greater efficiencies for recurring annual savings of $36.2 million. The TIRZs have agreed to contribute an additional $19.6 million to the General Fund for FY2017 and an equal or larger amount in subsequent years. Yet to come is a new approach for our pension liabilities. Productive discussions are underway with stakeholders and I am committed to having an agreement ready to take to the legislature by the end of this year. In the past, there has been a desire to tinker with the mayor’s budget proposal. I strongly urge that not be the case this year. Even one small change will upset the delicate balance we’ve achieved as a result of shared sacrifice and put the City at risk for a credit rating downgrade. This budget allows us to plan for the additional fiscal challenges the City will encounter in FY18 while also improving public safety, increasing employment opportunities and meeting the critical needs of the less fortunate in our city. I am asking City Council members not to do anything to change the course we have carefully mapped out. I look forward to your support. Sincerely, Sylvester Turner Mayor Forward Looking Statements The statements contained in this document that are not purely historical are forward looking statements, including statements regarding the City’s expectations, intentions, or strategies regarding the future. Readers and viewers should not place undue reliance on forward looking statements. All forward looking statements in this document and made verbally in conjunction with the release of this document are based on information available to the City on the date hereof, and the City assumes no obligation to update any such forward looking statements. The forward looking statements herein are necessarily based on various assumptions and estimates and are inherently subject to various risks and uncertainties, including risks and uncertainties relating to the possible invalidity of the underlying assumptions and estimates and possible changes or development in social, economic, business, industry, market, legal and regulatory circumstances and conditions and actions taken or omitted to be taken by third parties, including customers, suppliers, business partners and competitors, and legislative, judicial and other governmental authorities and officials. Assumptions related to the foregoing involve judgments with respect to, among other things, future economic, competitive, and market conditions and future business decisions, all of which are difficult or impossible to predict accurately and many of which are beyond the control of the City. Any of such assumptions could be inaccurate and, therefore, there can be no assurance that the forward looking statements included in this document and made verbally in conjunction with the release of this document would prove to be accurate and may be materially different. Additionally, pension-related projections or forecasts, including projections of the amount of the UAAL and net pension liability and the amounts of actuarially calculated contributions by the City, constitute “forward-looking” information that reflects the judgment of the City, the boards of the Pension Systems and the actuaries as to the amount of assets that will be required to be accumulated for the payment of future benefits to both active and retired employees. Such judgments are based upon a variety of assumptions concerning future events and circumstances, any one or more of which could prove to be inaccurate and are subject to change in the future. The assumptions underlying the projections are material to the development of the projections, and variations in the assumptions may produce substantially different results. Amounts shown in this document are preliminary amounts and may be subject to change. The FY2017 Proposed Budget is to be released on May 10, 2016. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 4 ?nu-FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary Organization Chart Citizens City Council Administration and Regulatory Affairs Fire Houston Emergency Center Library Parks and Recreation City Controller Mayor Aviation Fleet Management Convention and Entertainment Facilities City Secretary General Services Houston Health Department Houston Information Technology Services Municipal Courts Department Planning and Development Police Finance Housing and Community Development Human Resources Legal Neighborhoods Office of Business Opportunity Public Works and Engineering FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary Solid Waste Management 5 Basis of Budgeting and Accounting In general, the basis of budgeting and the basis of accounting used in the preparation of the City’s annual financial report are the same for all governmental funds (general fund, special revenue fund, debt service fund, and capital projects). Revenues and expenditures are budgeted consistent with the City’s financial statements, which are prepared in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) for all governmental funds. Governmental funds are accounted for on a modified accrual basis. This means that revenues are recognized in the accounting period in which they become available and measurable. Expenditures are recognized in the accounting period in which the fund liability is incurred, with the exception of long-term liabilities. Significant receivables (revenues) and liabilities (expenditures) are recorded in the prior year’s budget up to sixty days after fiscal year end if they represent earned income or expenditures as of June 30, the last day of the fiscal year. This includes the cost of employees’ time as well as supplies, services, and equipment delivered by June 30. For enterprise funds, the budgeting and accounting basis are the same except for depreciation and non-current expenses. Enterprise funds are accounted for on a full accrual basis, where revenues and expenses are recorded when they are earned/incurred. Enterprise funds focus on expenses related to maintenance and operations, equipment purchases, and exclude depreciation and other allocations related to income determination. Revenues received and expenses paid for goods and services delivered by June 30 are credited or charged to the current fiscal year’s budget. Encumbrance accounting is used to reserve funds committed to vendors for supplies, services and equipment throughout the year in all funds. However, encumbrances for items not delivered by June 30 are canceled and re-established against the new fiscal year budget for all operating budgets. Encumbrances do not establish expenditures/expenses or liabilities. Appropriations and encumbrances for capital project funds are maintained in effect until they are liquidated. Reserves The City’s fund balance level has been a critical component of the City’s financial management program. Reserves exist in two forms: o Those specifically created by ordinance, and o Those maintained as unappropriated or unassigned ending fund balance. Most of the City’s budgetary reserves take the form of ending fund balances and are consequently the result of financial activity as presented in the City’s financial statements. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 6 General Fund Reserves The following table shows the ending unassigned fund balance as well as the actual year-end maintenance and operating costs for preceding fiscal years, the estimated year-end costs for the current fiscal year and the estimated year-end costs for the subsequent fiscal year. Historical Data FY1997 – FY2017 General Fund Available Fund Balances ($ thousands) Fiscal year FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 Actual FY2016 Estimate FY2017 Estimate Unassigned Fund Balance 84,105 106,856 80,409 66,590 79,432 80,335 88,659 120,042 175,832 234,535 253,514 236,275 165,383 129,040 171,677 202,842 222,620 287,842 196,394 186,712 M&O Expenditures % of Fund Balance 903,228 956,893 1,030,235 1,064,160 1,105,408 1,206,160 1,235,994 1,279,879 1,368,746 1,459,076 1,567,484 1,668,700 1,676,367 1,680,038 1,590,044 1,705,450 1,821,588 1,964,412 2,026,749 2,013,465 9.31% 11.17% 7.80% 6.26% 7.19% 6.66% 7.17% 9.38% 12.85% 16.07% 16.17% 14.16% 9.87% 7.68% 10.80% 11.89% 12.22% 14.65% 9.69% 9.27% Previous City financial policies adopted by Ordinance 2003-474 required that fund balance as a percentage of expenditures less debt service be 5% or greater, however it was the City’s desire to maintain ending fund balance equal to 7.5% of expenditures less debt service. The City’s financial policies were revised and strengthened with adoption of Ordinance 2014-1078. Under the new policies, the City is now required to maintain an ending fund balance equal to at least 7.5% of General Fund expenditures (excluding debt service and transfers for pay-as-you-go capital projects). This went into effect starting FY2016. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 7 Houston Demographics and Economic Conditions The City of Houston was founded on August 30, 1836, by brothers Augustus Chapman Allen and John Kirby Allen, and named after General Sam Houston. The City of Houston’s simple 19th century city seal – the noble locomotive (heralding Houston’s spirit of progress) and the humble plow (symbol of the agricultural empire of Texas from which Houston would draw her wealth) – clearly speaks to the roots of Houston’s economy and to the visionary leadership of its citizens. According to the United States Census Bureau, Houston has a total area over 600 square miles comprising of 579.4 square miles of land and 22.3 square miles of water. Houston is the fourth most populous city in the nation with an estimated 2014 population of 2,239,558 (3,502 people per square mile), just behind New York, Los Angeles and Chicago; and is the largest city in the southern U.S. and Texas. With 6,656,947 inhabitants in 2015, the nine-county Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is the nation’s fifth most populous metro area. The entire MSA covers more than 10,000 square miles and includes all or part of the Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, and Waller counties. Houston is the center city of one of the most dynamic urban centers in the United States. 2014 City Population New York Los Angeles Chicago Houston 8,491,079 3,928,864 2,722,389 2,239,558 2015 Metro Area Population New York, Newark, Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Los Angeles, Long Beach, Anaheim, CA Chicago, Naperville, Elgin, IL-IN-WI Dallas, Fort Worth, Arlington, TX Houston, The Woodlands, Sugar Land, TX Washington D.C., Arlington, Alexandria, VA-MD-WV Philadelphia, Camden, Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Philadelphia 1,560,297 20,182,305 13,340,068 9,551,031 7,102,796 6,656,947 6,097,684 6,069,875 Population growth continues in the city and the metropolitan area: the Houston metro area added 159,083 residents from July 2014 to July 2015, according to U.S. Census data that show the area gaining more population than any other metro area in the nation. Every Houston-area county experienced population growth in 2015, and Harris County led the nation’s counties in population growth, adding 90,451 residents (among counties with 250,000 people or more, Fort Bend showed the fastest percentage growth with a 4.3% population increase in one year). Houston also stands among the nation’s most diverse cities, drawing newcomers from around the U.S. and across the world – foreign-born residents accounted for two of every five newcomers to the region in the past five years. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 8 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, as of 2010, Houston’s population breakdown by race and ethnicity was as follows: Hispanic or Latino origin 43.8%; White (not Hispanic) 25.6%; African-American 23.7%; Asian 6.0%; American Indian and Alaska Native 0.7%; Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander 0.1%; and persons of two or more races 3.3%. Additionally, 49.8% of Houston’s population is female; 25.9% of all persons are under 18 years of age and 9.0% are over 65 years; 28.3% of all persons are foreign born; and 46.3% of all households speak a language other than English. While the economy has started to slow, population growth is still likely to continue, albeit at a reduced pace. The region records an annual “natural increase” in population of about 60,000, as births outpace deaths, and this means that even a 50% drop in the number of residents moving to Houston would yield annual population growth of nearly 90,000. The Greater Houston Partnership notes that population growth has been steady over the past 15 years, with the region’s population increasing from 3.7 million to 6.6 million and showing few effects from upswings and downturns in oil prices. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK For the fifth time in 35 years, Houston faces economic uncertainty brought on by falling oil prices. Rigs are idled and the City’s sales tax revenue has fallen. The Houston Purchasing Managers Index for March 2016 registered 45.9, up from February’s 44.5 mark but below the 50-point level required to indicate economic expansion (the index has now signaled economic contraction in Houston for 15 straight months). And construction has slowed as new capacity generates office and multi-family supply that could outstrip demand. The region’s economy remained relatively strong through and following the Great Recession; as indicated in the chart below, Houston never saw the dramatic employment dropoff experienced by much of the U.S. from late 2008 into early 2010. Since that time, the Houston MSA has seen job growth sufficient to keep local employment growth at a pace near that of the nation’s employment expansion. However, with the impact of lower oil and gas prices on the upstream energy sector, Houston’s employment growth has slowed and is being outpaced by increases in U.S. employment. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 9 3,200 145,000 3,000 US Pre-recession High Jan 2008: 138,432K 140,000 Jan 2016 143,314K 135,000 125,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 130,000 2,200 US Recession Low Feb 2010 129,733K Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 US Employment ('000s) 150,000 USA 2,000 Houston Employment '(000s) Total nonfarm employment United States vs. Houston MSA Mar 2005 – Feb 2016 Houston Source: US Census Bureau Nationally, the slow but steady job growth has moved the nation beyond its pre-recession high of 138.4 million jobs in January 2008. As of March 2016, some six years after the recession low of 129.7 million jobs in February 2010, the U.S. has recovered 14 million jobs with an estimated 143.8 million jobs, easily surpassing the pre-recession highs. United States Total employment versus unemployment rate Jan 2008 - Mar 2016 12.0% Unemployment rate 10.0% Oct 2009 10.0% 145.0 Total employed 140.4K Dec 2014 140.0 8.0% 6.0% 135.0 130.0 4.0% Unemployment rate 4.9% Feb 2008 125.0 Jan-08 2.0% Total employed 129.7K Feb 2010 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 % Unemplolyed Total employed (millioms) 150.0 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 0.0% Source: US Census Bureau Houston’s story is quite different: Houston lost only 156,400 jobs from December 2008 to January 2011. The area’s recovery was also much more rapid than at the national level, as Houston regained its pre-recession jobs level by December 2011, only 23 months after the low point of the recession. As of December 2014, Houston had gained 326,200 jobs since December 2011. While Houston recovered at a faster pace than the country as a whole, much of that growth was attributable to expansion in energy exploration due to higher oil prices. The lingering downturn in prices has dramatically slowed employment growth in Houston, although the impact is being slightly offset by active construction projects started during the recent building boom and new projects in downstream energy refining that are now more economical with lower energy prices. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 10 Houston MSA Total employment versus unemployment rate Jan 2008 - Feb 2016 Unemployment rate 8.8% Jun 2011 Total employed ('000s) 3,000 Total employment Dec 2014 3,006.1 Jan 2016 2,973.5 2,900 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2,800 5.0% 2,700 4.0% 2,600 2,500 10.0% Unemployment rate, 3.9% Apr 2008 Total employment 2,679.9 Dec 2011 Total employment 2,501 Jan 2010 3.0% % Unemplolyed 3,100 2.0% 1.0% 2,400 0.0% Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Source: US Census Bureau While initial Texas Workforce Commission data indicated the area created 23,200 jobs in 2015, revisions released in March 2016 reduced the 2015 job-creation total to 15,200, a dramatic drop-off from the 117,800 jobs created in 2014 (the region’s third-best year on record for job growth). Job losses tended to occur in sectors more closely tied to the upstream energy industry; the overall gain was driven by an increase of 65,000 jobs in sectors including accommodations and food services; arts and entertainment; construction; finance and insurance; government and health care. As job growth slows (weighed down by a market in which the nation is showing its lowest count of working oil rigs in more than half a century), there are still reasons for optimism. Looking ahead, area economists cite several reasons to believe that Houston will successfully weather this newest storm. For one, oil downturns are typically linked to a national recession; this is not the case at present, and continued strength in the U.S. and global economies helps Houston (demand for consumer goods drives demand for plastics and chemicals, and many Houston companies are impacted by business trends occurring far from this metro area). Additionally, Houston’s well-documented economic diversification of the past few decades means that as people are laid off from jobs at struggling upstream energy firms, many are able to transfer their skills in areas like finance, human resources, or the law to other employers in sectors like downstream energy, health care or education. Meanwhile, some $50 billion in construction and expansion at refineries and chemical plants to the east of Houston represents one of the largest investments ever in manufacturing capacity along the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, the planned expansion of the Panama Canal will open new doors for area manufacturers wishing to ship to, or bring components in from, Asia. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 11 ENERGY Houston remains the internationally recognized global energy capital, and as such can suffer material economic impacts when oil prices slump. After achieving a high of nearly $106 in June of 2014, oil tumbled to $31.68/barrel in January 2016, a price point not seen since March 2009. This is having an impact on job growth in Houston, as Houston holds a substantial portion of the nation’s jobs in oil and gas extraction. Partially offsetting this impact are the nine refineries in Houston that process more than 2.3 million barrels of crude oil per day (approximately half of the state’s total production). Lower oil and gas prices translate to lower costs for the inputs that refiners and many other manufacturers in the Houston area use, which can translate into higher profits and more employment related to refining and manufacturing. As of April, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will approach an average of $35/barrel in 2016 and a further appreciation in 2017 prices to more than $40/barrel. Based on this forecast, local economists say Houston should remain relatively strong in the near term, although a price rebound will be needed at some point to compensate for lost jobs and related economic activity as construction at refineries and chemical plants along the Texas Gulf Coast slows in the next year or two. Should oil prices hold to current projections and remain around $40/barrel, or even increase slightly through the remainder of 2016, Houston is likely to navigate this most recent economic challenge in relative health. Given the volatility of oil prices and projections though, the City would do well to prepare for prices below these levels. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) vs Henry Hub Natural Gas Jan 2005 - Feb 2016 160.0 WTI Spot Price (FOB) $ 140.0 WTI price $105.8 120.0 Jun 2014 100.0 WTI price $47.2 Jan 2015 80.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 60.0 6.0 40.0 4.0 20.0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 - WTI price $31.68 Jan 2016 WTI price 2.0 Henry Hub Natural Gas Spot Price $ per Million Btu 16.0 - Natural Gas Spot price Source: US Energy Information Administration FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 12 HOUSTON MSA AT A GLANCE * Not Seasonally Adjusted Sources: Greater Houston Partnership, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Harris County Appraisal District FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 13 CONSTRUCTION AND REAL ESTATE The City of Houston issued approximately 16,000 single and multi-family residential permits in 2015, 17% less than in the previous year. The slowdown continues: total building permits in January and February 2016 were down approximately 30% from prior-year totals. The $7.8 billion 12-month total value for Houston building permits as of February 2016 was down from the $8.9 billion in the 12months ending in February 2015, which the Greater Houston Partnership cites as Houston’s historic peak for permit activity. With expansion and construction in various industries, the 2015 nonresidential construction permits dropped by nearly 22% compared to prior year. Projections are for a surplus of multi-family and office space capacity after initiation of numerous projects in 2014 and 2015. Source: City of Houston Single Family Housing The five-year trend represented in the chart below illustrates the vitality of the Houston housing market during the recent employment boom. Sales in 2015 dropped slightly from 2014’s record performance, but total dollar volume held virtually constant as the average sales price increased from $270,182 to $280,290. The report from the Houston Association of Realtors (covering March 2016) highlights positive sales in mid-range homes and increasing inventory as evidence that the Houston real estate market “demonstrated more sustainable conditions.” The report shows 2016 home sales running 1% ahead of the 2015 year-to-date pace, with single-family inventory levels climbing from a 2.8-month supply to 3.6 months. It also notes that Houston’s inventory remains less than the national supply of 4.4 months’ inventory, and points to continued population growth as a mitigating factor against the potential negative effects of energy industry layoffs. SUMMARY OF HOUSTON RESIDENTIAL SALES ACTIVITY 2015 Total Sales Total dollar volume 2014 2013 2012 2011 88,764 91,439 88,069 74,116 63,606 $23,559,111,514 $23,553,542,859 $20,891,392,084 $16,040,186,637 $13,012,903,352 Single-family sales 73,724 75,535 73,232 62,374 53,592 Average sales price $280,290 $270,182 $248,591 $225,330 $213,723 Median sales price $212,000 $199,000 $180,000 $164,500 $155,000 Source: Har.com FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 14 COST OF LIVING AND INFLATION A significant reason for Houston’s sustained growth is its lower cost of living. Houston prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), dropped by 0.2% in 2015 compared to the national increase of 0.1%. Houston’s overall average CPI for 2015 was 213.1 versus 237.0 nationally, the result of which, is that Houston residents have a cost of living that is approximately 10% less than the national average. Average annual change Consumer Price Index Houston vs. United States 2000 - 2015 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 United States 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Houston Source: US Bureau of Labor and Statistics The cost of consumer goods and services, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for Houston, trended higher than the national average for 2013 and 2014 as evidenced in the chart above, before turning downward in 2015. With oil and gas prices on the decline through the latter half of 2014 and much of 2015, Houston’s Consumer Price Index responded with a slight decrease. However, indications through early 2016 are that inflation is returning to the area, as increasing housing costs and a slight rise in food prices offset cheaper motor fuel and household energy. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show consumer prices in the metro area rising 2% from February 2015 to February 2016, which the Greater Houston Partnership notes is the largest annual increase since late 2014. Sources: • Harris County Appraisal District • The Greater Houston Partnership (Special Thanks to Patrick Jankowski) • Houston Association of Realtors • University of Houston Center for Public Policy • National Association of Realtors Quarterly Report • City of Houston • US Bureau of Labor Statistics • US Census Bureau • US Bureau of Economic Analysis • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas – Houston Branch • US Government Energy Information Administration • University of Houston Institute for Regional Forecasting, C.T. Bauer College of Business (Special Thanks to Dr. Bill Gilmer) FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 15 Budgetary Challenges The City is required by state law to adopt a balanced budget. When the City’s current expenditures exceed current revenues, that deficit is commonly referred to as the “gap” or “shortfall.” These are typically the result of lower revenues than projected and/or increasing expenditures. Each year, the City presents the five-year financial forecast to provide a preliminary estimate of what the upcoming fiscal year will look like. It becomes the basis for the City to take necessary actions to close potential or projected funding gaps in order to balance the following year’s budget. Having weathered the Great Recession of 2008 and now contending with the effects of low oil prices, Houston faces continued budget challenges. Combined with a voter-imposed limitation on property tax revenues and rising pension obligations, the volatile economy presents difficulties as the City serves a still-growing population. This problem manifests in the gap. As seen in Exhibit 1 below, every City budget since FY2010 has projected a funding gap to be balanced with reserves; looking at the adopted surplus/shortfalls in the past seven years, projected fund balance utilization in balancing the budget ranges from approximately $3,000 to $86 million. This is in part the result of conservative budgeting. In four of the past seven years, the City ended the year with surplus funds that were returned to fund balance as the “mini-boom” generated revenues in excess of cautious projections. With the increasing property values during those four years, the City finally reached the Proposition 1 ad valorem tax revenue cap in FY2015. The major issue the City is currently facing is the structural balance between revenue and spending. While the City’s adopted budget is always balanced, current revenues may not be sufficient to support current expenditures. This shortfall generates a projected structural imbalance that is corrected through the use of financial reserves. As suggested earlier, although the City’s past seven budgets have all projected a funding gap, the City’s conservative budgeting approach combined with a strong economy has yielded to year-end surpluses in four of the six years from FY2010 to FY2015, with FY2016 anticipated to show a shortfall. Work is in progress to achieve recurring structural balance in the City’s budget and stop the dependency on drawing down fund balance; this will offer increased protection from economic volatility and will align with the City’s financial policies The forecasted FY2017 funding gap is the largest seen so far this decade, as FY2016 sales taxes and property taxes are projected to finish the year well below budgeted levels. Sales tax receipts are slumping, while property tax receipts are impacted by successful protests of property tax appraisals as well as the property tax revenue cap. However, a number of strategic initiatives are being put in place or are anticipated to address this situation, and it is anticipated that fund balance drawdown will be kept at $10 million. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 16 Exhibit 1 – Budgetary Shortfalls ($ in thousands) Expenditures Revenues FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 2 Forecast 1 Adopted Actual/ Estimates 1,948,349 1,925,035 1,821,922 1,861,551 1,987,762 2,120,698 2,288,820 2,264,557 1,883,305 1,841,776 1,827,995 1,922,868 2,037,289 2,210,910 2,305,376 2,296,621 1,847,353 1,840,055 1,857,342 1,990,456 2,081,459 2,291,146 2,281,753 N/A Forecast 1 Adopted Actual/ Estimates 2,002,354 1,977,877 1,912,309 1,873,840 2,041,539 2,201,764 2,430,569 2,424,220 1,933,996 1,895,691 1,827,998 1,947,897 2,071,197 2,259,370 2,391,253 2,306,621 1,916,387 1,900,876 1,810,551 1,945,653 2,065,401 2,228,912 2,372,749 N/A Surplus/(Shortfalls) Actual/ Forecast 1 Estimates Adopted (54,005) (52,842) (90,387) (12,289) (53,777) (81,066) (141,749) (159,663) (50,691) (53,915) (3) (25,029) (33,908) (48,460) (85,877) (10,000) (69,034) (60,821) 46,791 44,803 16,058 62,234 (90,996) N/A Note: 1. Forecasts amount is based on prior years' five-year forecasts presented to City Council. 2. FY2017 forecast amount is revised from prior year's presentation to reflect the drop in sales tax revenues. 3. These figures do not include full funding of pension obligations. Exhibit 2 – Total Revenues and Expenditures (both recurring and non-recurring) * Please note that the expenditures shown in Exhibit 2 do not include full funding of the unfunded liabilities. Exhibit 2 above shows the City’s response to revenue drops from FY2009 to FY2011, and as projected from FY2016 to FY2017. At the outset of this decade, the City responded with belttightening steps including layoffs in FY2011 and FY2012. As revenues began to rebound, expenditures followed suit as the City’s population continued to grow. Though various (largely onetime/non-recurring) measures have kept the City’s budget in balance each year, FY2017 will see new expenditure reductions to accommodate a significant slowdown in revenue growth. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 17 While Exhibit 2 reflects all revenues and expenditures (including non-recurring items), the chart below demonstrates that matching recurring revenues and recurring expenditures remains a challenge. As seen in Exhibit 3, beginning in FY2009, following the economic downturn in 2008, the recurring revenues growth was lower than expenditures growth (note that this chart shows only recurring revenues and expenditures, and does not include one-time income or outlays). The City changed course and adjusted expenditures downward to compensate. But the problem presented itself again in FY2016, and the chart below indicates a potential trend toward greater structural imbalance, as recurring expenditures start to move upward and away from relatively flat recurring revenues. To achieve financial stability and comply with the City’s financial policies, this imbalance must be addressed. Exhibit 3 – Recurring Revenues and Expenditures FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimate Estimate Recurring Revenues $ 1,451 1,562 1,665 1,777 1,837 1,796 1,811 1,828 1,978 2,081 2,257 2,268 2,284 Recurring Expenditures $ 1,468 1,564 1,668 1,790 1,902 1,916 1,901 1,828 1,954 2,065 2,229 2,347 2,388 Revenues Growth (%) 7.7% 6.5% 6.8% 3.4% -2.2% 0.8% 0.9% 8.2% 5.3% 8.4% 0.5% 0.7% Expenditures Growth (%) 6.5% 7.3% 6.2% 0.8% -0.8% -3.9% 6.9% 5.7% 7.9% 5.3% 1.7% 6.7% ($ in millions) FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 18 City Initiatives: Stabilizing the Budget in a New Downturn As lower oil prices over the past 18 months signaled economic challenges, the City has responded with expenditure reductions intended to cushion the economy’s anticipated effects on City revenue as indicated in Exhibit 4 below. Exhibit 4 – FY2015/16 Budget vs. Actual/Estimates FY2016 FY2015 ($ in thousands) Revenues Expenditures Surplus/(Shortfall) Adopted Budget 2,210,910 2,259,370 (48,460) Actual 2,291,146 2,228,912 62,234 Variance 80,236 (30,458) 110,694 Adopted Budget 2,305,376 2,391,254 (85,878) Estimates 2,281,753 2,372,749 (90,996) Variance (23,622) (18,505) (5,117) In FY2015, compared to the adopted budget, City of Houston managed to add $111 million surplus in fund balance to ensure future ending fund balance will be above the minimum 7.5% of expenditures less debt/PAYGO. This consisted of $80 million additional revenues and $30 million expenditures savings. In FY2016, the impact of the economy and falling oil prices finally showed its effects on the City’s sales tax revenue, currently estimated at $636.3 million, 7.6% below the budget. Additionally, with the increasing tax refunds from prior years’ litigation of contested property tax appraisals, the City’s property tax is estimated at $1.09 billion, 1.9% below the budget. The total revenue shortfall from FY2016 budget is at $23.6 million. Whereas conservative revenue projections have helped yield yearend surpluses in prior years, FY2016’s large revenue drop negates expenditure savings and yields a remaining shortfall. The current situation has been mitigated to some extent by cost reduction initiatives undertaken in FY2016 of $18.5 million (net of other increases), shown in Exhibit 4. These included a slowdown in hiring and identification of efficiencies that have reduced City spending below budgeted levels; where savings were projected, budgets were reduced accordingly and savings were directed to fund balance. Upon taking office in January 2016, the new administration took a number of steps to tighten spending. Executive Order 1-53, issued in January, calls for a series of new policies and procedures to improve the City’s financial and performance management. These include an increased emphasis on outcomes in budget decision-making (program- or performance-based budgeting); greater scrutiny of spending proposals; long-range financial planning; greater focus on goal-setting and monitoring of progress toward those goals; and more transparency with regard to communication on fiscal matters. An administrative policy explicating these high-level commitments is to be released by the end of April. The administration also introduced a new Staffing Efficiency Assessment process (requiring justification to post and fill positions that are not front-line service delivery roles), and has effectively limited hiring to those critical front-line roles. Additional improvements have been achieved with limited staffing cutbacks (as noted in the Mayor’s budget letter, the goal is to achieve these primarily FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 19 via attrition and elimination of vacant positions), and the savings identification and budget capture efforts noted above. Exhibit 5 shows the budget initiatives in FY2015 and FY2016, and Exhibit 6 shows reduction initiatives by department. It is important to note these savings initiatives will not tie to the expenditure variance on Exhibit 4, as other costs have partially offset these savings. Exhibit 5 – FY2015/16 Budget Initiatives FY2015 ($ in thousands) Initiatives One-time Land Sales Cost Savings Initiatives Vacancy Savings Total Initiatives FY2015 FY2016 ($ in thousands) Initiatives Cost Savings Initiatives Vacancy Savings Total Initiatives FY2016 Total Initiatives FY2015-16 Revenues $ Expenditures Total Initiatives $ 23,437 $ 23,437 $ $ 18,510 3,677 22,187 $ 23,437 18,510 3,677 45,624 $ $ $ 23,437 $ 17,078 6,431 23,510 $ 45,697 $ 17,078 6,431 23,510 69,134 Exhibit 6 – FY2015/16 General Fund Expenditures Reduction Initiatives by Department ($ in thousands) Department Name Administration and Regulatory Affairs City Council City Secretary City Controller Finance Department Fire Department General Services Houston Health Department Housing & Community Development Houston Emergency Center Human Resources Houston Information Technology Services Legal Library Mayor's Office Municipal Courts Department Department of Neighborhoods Office of Business Opportunity Parks and Recreation Planning & Development Police Department Public Works & Engineering Solid Waste Management General Government FY2015 FY2016 Total Reduction Reduction Vacancy Reduction Vacancy Initiatives Initiatives Savings Initiatives Savings $ 856 $ $ 244 $ 178 $ 1,278 19 79 98 89 48 137 85 171 410 471 1,137 2,442 178 5,291 123 8,034 78 309 161 548 435 161 802 1,398 7 101 70 178 2,000 2,000 20 60 49 59 187 433 1,000 17 1,024 2,474 443 748 394 173 1,757 537 450 240 69 1,297 49 186 235 420 336 756 61 70 90 121 341 30 32 34 96 1,259 600 913 1,034 3,806 129 400 140 669 10,181 4,525 980 15,686 29 171 200 449 1,641 835 2,925 459 459 Total Budget Initiatives FY15/16 $ 18,510 $ 3,677 $ 17,078 $ FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 6,431 $ 45,697 20 Closing the FY2017 Gap As noted before, expenditure reduction initiatives began early in FY2016 to mitigate the effects of expected lower-than-anticipated revenues due to the drop in oil prices. The City continues to develop initiatives to improve the General Fund’s fiscal stability, primarily via identification of efficiencies and opportunities for expenditure reductions. These are reflected in the $25.8 million expenditure reduction below; limited revenue increases will be utilized in some instances as indicated in the table below. Exhibit 7 – FY2017 Budget Initiatives ALL FIGURES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE ($ in thousands) Additional Revenues TIRZ - Municipal Service Fees Revenue 1 One-Time Land Sale Total Additional Revenues $ 19,564 Recurring 12,500 Non-Recurring 32,064 Expenditures Reductions Debt Prepayment from Building Inspection Fund 2 Debt Refinancing - resulting reduction for the following: Debt Service Transfers 3 ReBuild Houston Transfers according to City Charter 4 Debt & PAYGO Expenditures Reduction Subtotal 31,849 Non-Recurring 13,467 Non-Recurring 68,860 Council District Service Fund Department Expenditure Reduction 5 Service Chargeback Reduction to General Fund Proposed HPOPS Deferred Contribution 6 Other than Debt/PAYGO Reduction Subtotal 8,250 25,789 2,200 12,500 48,739 Total Expenditures Reduction 117,599 Fund Balance Drawdown 10,000 Total Gap Closed $ 159,663 23,544 Non-Recurring Recurring Recurring Recurring Non-Recurring Notes: 1. TIRZ Municipal Service Fees will increase to match service costs generated by the TIRZs 2. Debt Prepayment of General Obligation Debt on the 1002 Washington Permitting Center from the Building Inspection Fund went to debt service fund balance in FY2016. This prepayment will be used to offset General Fund debt service increase in FY2017. The General Fund will assume $23.5 million of 1002 Washington debt service going forward. 3. Debt Refinancing savings from 2016 Public Improvement Bond refunding transaction. 4. Captured Revenues Transfer to the Dedicated Drainage Street and Renewal Fund will be made according to ReBuild Houston capital improvement projects. 5. Department Expenditure Reduction in General Fund by Departments can be seen in Exhibit 8. 6. The City has proposed to HPOPS a contribution deferral in lieu of a $12.5 million interest in the 1200 Travis Building owned by the City. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 21 Exhibit 8 – FY2017 General Fund Department Reduction ($ in thousands) Department Administration and Regulatory Affairs Finance Department Fire Department General Services Houston Health Department Housing & Community Development Houston Emergency Center Human Resources Houston Information Technology Services Legal Library Mayor's Office Municipal Courts Department Department of Neighborhoods Parks and Recreation Planning & Development Police Department Public Works & Engineering Solid Waste Management General Government FY2017 % of FY2016 Reduction Current Budget * $ 311 1% 855 4% 8,296 2% 419 1% 1,820 3% 41 8% 587 6% 120 3% 323 1% 311 2% 636 2% 402 5% 763 3% 196 2% 142 0% 192 3% 5,800 1% 47 0% 2,293 3% 2,236 1% Total FY2017 Reduction Initiatives $ 25,789 1% * Rounded to the nearest percentage of FY2016 Current Budget for departments stated above. As indicated earlier, savings achieved through staffing reductions are focused on non-critical positions that will not directly impact the essential services the City delivers; further, the administration will work to achieve such savings via attrition and elimination of vacant positions wherever possible. Specifically protected from staffing reductions are our classified police and fire personnel, and there are no layoffs in parks or libraries included in this budget. Note also that this budget maintains the City’s commitment to ReBuild Houston, the pay-as-you-go infrastructure funding approach endorsed by Houston voters in 2010. This budget holds the General Fund’s contribution to ReBuild Houston proportionally consistent with reductions to the property tax rate as required by the revenue cap with no impact to the implementation of capital projects. It also includes a reduction to the City’s solid waste sponsorship program that subsidizes homeowner associations that choose to obtain solid waste collection services beyond those provided by the City. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 22 Exhibit 9 – Unassigned Ending Fund Balances As indicated in Exhibit 9 above, the City has traditionally held its General Fund balance at or above 7.5% of General Fund expenditures (the City’s new financial policies call for 7.5% of General Fund expenditures excluding debt service and pay-as-you-go capital transfers). In FY2017, the unassigned ending fund balance is at 9.27% of expenditures less debt/PAYGO. It is the City’s goal to maintain fund balance at or above 9%, well above the minimum required. Maintaining this larger cushion provides additional protection in the event of emergencies or further deterioration in economic conditions and helps maintain our credit rating and flexibility heading into FY2018. Both recurring and non-recurring initiatives are included to balance the FY2017 Budget; these include limited layoffs and elimination of positions as indicated elsewhere in this document. Without considering non-recurring items in achieving budget balance, the City would need to reduce an additional $93.9 million of expenses (Exhibit 10). This would require layoffs – both civilian and classified employees. The average annual pay for a municipal employee is approximately $76,000 with benefits; fire classified is approximately $91,000 with benefits and police classified is approximately $97,000 with benefits. For context, reducing $93.9 million in expenditures via staff reductions would require elimination of about 1,235 average municipal employee (non-classified) positions. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 23 Exhibit 10 – FY2017 Significant Impact of Removing Non-Recurring Items ALL FIGURES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE ($ in thousands) Additional Revenues TIRZ - Municipal Service Fees Revenue Total Additional Revenues $ 19,564 Recurring 19,564 Expenditures Reductions Council District Service Fund Department Expenditure Reduction Service Chargeback Reduction to General Fund Other than Debt/PAYGO Reduction Subtotal Total Expenditures Reduction Additional Expenditure Reduction 8,250 Recurring 25,789 Recurring 2,200 Recurring 36,239 36,239 93,860 Fund Balance Drawdown 10,000 Total Gap Closed $ 159,663 While the City’s financial policies call for structural balance (recurring revenues greater than or equal to recurring expenditures), and the City could make staffing cuts to do so, non-recurring measures are included in this budget. With the work the City will do to achieve structural balance in FY2018-2019, it makes little sense to make staffing reductions of this magnitude to balance the budget while fund balance and other measures are available. This budget implements $55.8 million in recurring changes and preserves vital City services. Additionally, the administration will continue to identify and implement further recurring savings. There are extensive opportunities to continue consolidating back-office operations, cutting unnecessary spending, streamlining operations, and eliminate unnecessary positions. Further, the administration will look closely at our reporting structures for efficiencies and begin renegotiations of our largest contracts where we have not already done so. As these opportunities are capitalized upon, the administration will remove one-time sources of funds and replace them with the savings generated. This targeted, strategic approach is preferable to across-the-board cuts now, before the administration has had sufficient time to fully evaluate operations and implement the changes needed to capture recurring savings. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 24 ?nu-FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 25 FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Summary Fund Name: General Fund ALL FIGURES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Fund No. : 1000 FY2015 Actual Beginning Fund Balance - Unassigned $ FY2016 Current Budget FY2016 Estimate FY2017 Estimate 222,620,490 287,841,725 287,841,725 196,393,647 General Property Taxes 1,074,435,185 1,114,028,980 1,092,731,468 1,133,190,875 Industrial Assessment 16,735,785 18,200,000 18,992,572 18,042,943 667,061,076 688,837,000 636,300,000 615,000,000 Revenue and Other Sources Sales Taxes 15,992,280 16,678,981 16,615,981 16,908,772 100,564,568 101,141,850 101,145,516 102,029,934 Telephone Franchise 43,450,849 40,865,000 43,219,885 42,000,000 Gas Franchise 14,538,332 14,839,561 14,839,561 15,015,585 Other Franchise 31,282,727 30,945,026 33,155,801 33,738,694 Licenses and Permits 37,999,329 37,870,062 39,555,871 40,019,911 Intergovernmental 24,184,766 26,470,476 53,485,088 70,151,379 Charges for Services 63,272,442 53,207,496 58,678,460 58,829,529 Direct Interfund Services 47,851,393 50,705,238 53,552,058 53,764,807 Indirect Interfund Services 25,327,922 26,750,414 26,790,414 27,436,084 Municipal Courts Fines and Forfeits 25,446,825 28,698,175 22,812,017 22,812,017 Other Fines and Forfeits 4,731,606 4,155,722 4,309,422 4,306,281 Interest 3,039,623 3,000,000 3,600,000 3,000,000 17,216,717 12,756,750 26,426,799 13,824,806 2,213,131,425 2,269,150,731 2,246,210,913 2,270,071,617 46,651,874 31,363,014 5,500,000 30,724,961 5,501,000 30,041,561 14,500,000 12,049,011 78,014,888 36,224,961 35,542,561 26,549,011 2,513,766,803 2,593,217,417 2,569,595,199 2,493,014,275 Other Tax Electric Franchise Miscellaneous/Other Total Revenue and Other Sources Other Resources Sale of Capital Assets Transfers From Other Funds Total Other Resources Total Available Resources Expenditures and Other Uses Public Safety Fire Department 494,140,178 507,890,583 507,767,336 504,651,890 Houston Emergency Center 12,517,759 10,495,106 10,495,106 10,148,271 Municipal Courts Department 26,862,735 29,146,536 28,514,278 29,561,764 Police Department Public Safety 741,251,982 801,945,758 800,945,756 811,296,432 1,274,772,654 1,349,477,983 1,347,722,476 1,355,658,357 41,817,398 41,382,513 41,221,640 41,223,483 7,707,990 6,118,289 6,118,289 4,189,347 32,260,022 31,629,307 31,458,088 31,943,989 Development & Maintenance Services General Services Planning & Development Public Works & Engineering Solid Waste Management Development & Maintenance Services 74,793,572 75,771,536 75,771,536 79,163,385 156,578,982 154,901,645 154,569,553 156,520,203 FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 26 FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Summary ALL FIGURES ARE PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Fund Name: General Fund Fund No. : 1000 FY2015 Actual FY2016 Current Budget FY2016 Estimate FY2017 Estimate Human & Cultural Services Department of Neighborhoods 12,018,096 Housing & Community Development 12,263,579 12,263,579 11,704,705 668,929 577,465 497,634 532,760 Houston Health Department 59,549,369 61,441,105 60,639,244 65,639,362 Library 38,707,100 40,205,473 40,137,935 40,916,822 Parks and Recreation 68,621,171 71,296,782 71,296,782 73,139,214 Human & Cultural Services 179,564,665 185,784,404 184,835,174 191,932,864 28,890,580 29,495,672 29,495,672 30,522,833 8,135,147 8,730,584 8,682,542 8,886,974 10,592,134 805,096 19,378,940 879,419 19,378,940 800,061 10,329,476 907,691 Administrative Services Administration and Regulatory Affairs City Controller (1) City Council City Secretary Finance Department 18,358,497 20,254,083 19,782,928 19,622,040 Houston Information Technology Services 22,554,445 24,594,024 23,950,478 23,362,802 Human Resources Legal 3,285,302 3,637,406 3,578,886 3,053,604 15,072,057 15,839,370 15,746,041 16,046,138 Mayor's Office 7,600,250 8,164,446 8,164,446 7,695,641 Office of Business Opportunity 2,743,152 2,947,094 2,913,179 3,048,590 118,036,660 133,921,038 132,493,174 123,475,791 235,459,236 218,809,422 207,128,644 185,877,435 1,964,412,197 2,042,894,491 2,026,749,021 2,013,464,650 0 27,758,000 27,758,000 0 22,288,000 22,288,000 34,741,000 264,500,000 295,954,000 295,954,000 281,959,000 264,500,000 346,000,000 346,000,000 293,155,978 2,228,912,197 2,388,894,491 2,372,749,021 2,306,620,628 284,854,606 204,322,926 196,846,178 186,393,647 2,513,766,803 2,593,217,417 2,569,595,199 2,493,014,275 Administrative Services General Government General Government Total Expenditures Other than Debt / PAYGO Debt Service and PAYGO Capital Other Adjustments (2) Captured Revenue Transfer to DDSRF Trans to PIB Bonds Debt Service Debt Service and PAYGO Capital Projects Total Expenditures and Other Uses Fund Balance - Unassigned Total Budget Changes to Unassigned Fund Balance Prepaid Items and Imprest Cash 0 2,987,119 Ending Fund Balance - Unassigned 287,841,725 (452,531) 0 203,870,395 (452,531) 0 196,393,647 (23,544,022) 317,885 0 186,711,532 Amount Assigned for: Budget Stabilization Fund (3) Ending Fund Balance - Unassigned Total Ending Fund Balance $ 20,000,000 20,452,531 20,452,531 20,134,646 287,841,725 203,870,395 196,393,647 186,711,532 307,841,725 224,322,926 216,846,178 206,846,178 (1) City Council budget includes funding for Council District Service Project Program. (2) Adjustments in FY2016 includes transfer to special fund and FY2017 includes debt prepayment from Building Inspection Fund. (3) An amount not less that the greater of (a) 1% of expenditures (excluding debt service and PAYGO payment) or (b) $20M. The General Fund Summary in some cases may not agree w ith some of the departmental totals due to prior year restatements. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 27 FY2017 General Fund Revenues Property and sales taxes are the City’s largest revenue sources. Over the past ten years, these sources averaged about 74% of total revenues. Exhibit 11 – General Fund Revenues Summary of Major Revenues - General Fund (FY2007 - FY2017) Property Tax Sales Tax Franchise Fees Other Subtotal Growth FY2007 Actual 748,792 461,417 189,551 327,822 1,727,582 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimates Estimates 830,889 890,088 892,865 859,413 866,141 910,034 976,240 1,074,435 1,092,731 1,133,191 495,173 507,103 468,965 492,824 546,543 600,256 629,441 667,061 636,300 615,000 190,196 190,322 190,868 190,563 192,760 195,304 189,989 189,836 192,361 192,784 295,702 297,401 294,631 297,251 251,899 284,862 285,790 359,814 360,361 355,646 1,811,959 1,884,913 1,847,329 1,840,052 1,857,344 1,990,457 2,081,459 2,291,146 2,281,753 2,296,621 4.88% 4.03% -1.99% -0.39% 0.94% 7.17% 4.57% 10.07% -0.41% 0.65% The revenue projection for FY2017 is approximately $14.9 million (0.65%) higher than FY2016 estimates as summarized below. These figures are based on conservative assumptions including oil prices reducing to $19.00/barrel by the end of the year and going down further to $18.79/barrel by the second quarter in 2017. FY2017 General Fund Revenues - Net Change to FY16 Estimates ($ in thousands) FY2016 Estimates incl. Other Resources $ FY2017 Proposed Budget inc. Other Resources Incremental Increase/(Decrease) Revenue Increases /(Decreases): Property Tax (1) Intergovernmental (2) Sale of Capital Assets (3) Licenses & Permits Direct Interfund Services Miscellaneous (4) Transfer from Other Funds (5) Sales Tax (6) Others Net Change of Revenues $ 2,281,753 2,296,621 14,867 0.65% 40,459 16,666 8,999 464 213 (12,602) (17,993) (21,300) (40) 14,867 Note: (1). Property Tax revenues based on limitation Prop 1 + H. (2). Includes additional $19.6 million TIRZ Municipal Service Fees in FY17. (3). Includes one-time land sales of $12.5 million. (4). Significant decrease due to one-time large settlement received in FY16. (5).Transfer from Houston First for arts funding will be reported in Houston Civic Events Special Fund. (6). Sales Tax decrease of 3.35% from FY16 Estimates due to the economic conditions. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 28 FY2017 General Fund Expenditures The City’s primary expense is personnel, with public safety representing the largest component of City spending. Exhibit 12 – General Fund Expenditures Summary of Major Expenditures - General Fund (FY2005 - FY2017) FY2007 Actual Police 581,787 Fire 360,542 Other Depts 516,747 Debt Service/PAYGO 209,000 1,668,076 Growth FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Estimates Estimates 663,420 621,739 697,417 723,066 741,252 800,946 811,296 618,304 657,225 662,766 388,352 422,718 435,852 448,175 420,198 433,176 452,316 494,140 507,767 504,652 560,828 588,757 577,750 568,443 548,106 574,856 646,205 729,020 718,036 697,516 222,850 232,948 240,020 220,837 220,507 240,203 243,813 264,500 346,000 293,156 1,790,334 1,901,648 1,916,388 1,900,875 1,810,550 1,945,652 2,065,400 2,228,912 2,372,749 2,306,621 7.33% 6.22% 0.78% -0.81% -4.75% 7.46% 6.15% 7.92% 6.45% -2.79% On average, about 57% of the City’s General Fund budget is allocated for police and fire, with about 30% distributed among the remaining 22 other departments (many of which directly or indirectly support public safety activities) and 13% for debt service/pay-as-you-go transfers. FY2017 General Fund Budget Expenditures - Net Change ($ in Thousands) $ FY2016 Current Budget FY2017 Proposed Budget Incremental Increase/(Decrease) 2,388,894 2,306,621 (82,274) -3.44% Contractual or Mandated increases: Compensation (1): Municipal Pay Classified Pay Subtotal Compensation: Maintenance Renewal & Replacement Election Recycling Cost Pension (2) HPOPS Supplemental (3) Subtotal Contractual/Mandated Transfers/Pass Through Increases (offset by corresponding revenues): Subtotal - Contractual/mandated & Transfers (4) 9,213 17,849 27,062 1,496 (2,000) 4,140 15,465 14,284 60,447 (14,453) 45,994 (13,995) (15,305) (23,544) (27,989) (25,500) (12,500) (8,250) (1,185) (128,268) (82,274) Debt Service Transfers Pay-as-you-go Transfers to DDSRF (4) Debt Prepayment (5) Budget Reduction Prior Year HPOPS Deferral Current Year HPOPS Deferral Council Service District Project Program Others Subtotal - Non Contractual Net Change of Expenditures $ Note: 1. Compensation pay based on meet & confer agreements with unions. 2. Pension contribution mandated by State Law, not contract. 3. Supplemental pension contribution for Police based on meet & confer as funded ratio is below 80%. 4. Decrease in Debt Service Transfers and DDSRF pay-as-you-go transfer as a result of debt refinancing. 5. Includes $23.5 million debt prepayment from Building Inspection Fund. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 29 Next Steps – FY2018 at a Glance Our work on the FY2017 budget is strategic and future-focused, planned with the understanding that today’s decisions will impact our city’s financial standing not just now, but in the years ahead. While FY2018 is likely to be another challenging budget year for the City, the administration’s FY2017 proposed budget anticipates those future challenges and takes important steps to address them. With the property tax revenue cap still in place, and the Houston economy likely to see limited growth the year ahead, FY2018 is likely to be another challenging budget year for the City. Our preliminary forecast range for FY2018 revenue growth is between 0% and 3.5%. Meanwhile, expenditures are expected to grow by as much as 8% in FY2018. Expenditure growth will be driven primarily by contractual and mandated increases, including pay raises for municipal and police classified employees covered by meet and confer agreements. We also anticipate that fire classified employees may receive contractual pay raises (firefighters have not received pay increases since March 2014), although our ability to achieve this will be heavily predicated upon reaching resolution on pension challenges. With all this in mind, our focus is on implementing sustainable budget changes that do not just address FY2017, but prepare a path toward long-term structural balance, in which recurring revenues match or exceed recurring spending. The FY2017 budget includes $55.8 million in recurring expenditure savings and new revenue – these changes are lasting, and stand as evidence of our commitment to correcting our financial course through shared sacrifice and an understanding that every dollar saved today puts us in better stead for the years to come. Our structural financial challenges in FY2017 are exacerbated by the property tax revenue cap, the economic slowdown, and rising debt and pension costs. We have taken a thoughtful, multi-pronged approach to solving these problems. In less than four months, we have reassessed and reduced City spending through steps including: • • • • • • • Stringent limits on hiring for any positions other than critical front-line roles; A freeze on pay increases; Elimination of vacant positions; Targeted layoffs; Tighter management of contracts; Issuance of Executive Order 1-53, which calls for new policies and procedures to improve accountability and transparency as we budget and invest the public’s money; and Working with our TIRZ boards to increase municipal service fees paid to the City to better match the service costs TIRZs generate. We are proud of these accomplishments, all recorded in the administration’s first 100 days. But our work is not done. The expenditure growth rates above do not include full funding of the City’s unfunded obligations. If the City were to begin fully funding those obligations, expenditures would increase significantly. That is why we are moving so aggressively to address our long-term challenges with sustainable, long-term solutions, beginning with our pension challenges. We have already met several times with representatives from the pensions, and have initiated productive conversations about how to rein in our pension costs. Our pace will quicken once the FY2017 budget is put to rest. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 30 In addition to addressing the pensions, we must also address the property tax revenue cap, which has been repeatedly cited by debt rating agencies as a significant threat to our fiscal health. We agree with the debt rating agencies that removing the property tax revenue cap will better position Houston to achieve long-term financial strength and stability. We are also far from finished with our identification and implementation of additional recurring savings. There are extensive opportunities to consolidate back-office operations, cut unnecessary spending, streamline operations, and eliminate unnecessary positions. Further, we will look closely at our reporting structures for efficiencies and begin renegotiations of our largest contracts where we have not already done so. Capitalizing on these opportunities will allow elimination of one-time budget fixes; these will be replaced by the savings generated from our focus on efficient and effective use of public resources. This targeted, strategic approach is preferable to across-the-board cuts now, before the administration has had sufficient time to fully evaluate operations and implement the changes needed to capture recurring savings. Thus far, the culmination of our work to date is a budget that prioritizes recurring improvements while protecting and, in some cases, improving vital City services. This budget does include some one-time gap-closing measures, but our charge is clear: we must wean the City away from fund balance drawdowns and other short-term, temporary solutions to our situation. Excluding our one-time solutions from the FY2017 budget would leave a deficit equivalent to the cost of more than 1,200 nonclassified municipal employees. Were we to try and achieve budget balance solely through personnel reductions, the impact would be devastating to some City services and our community’s quality of life. This is unacceptable. We must find other means of restoring the City’s financial health. We are doing so, and with the assistance and support of Houstonians, we will succeed. FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary 31 ?nu-FY2017 Preliminary General Fund Budget Summary