Accommodation Survey: April 2016 Embargoed until 10:45am – 10 June 2016 Key facts For April 2016, compared with April 2015:      National guest nights were up 3.7 percent (the 25th consecutive month of rises). Domestic guest nights were down 2.7 percent, while international guest nights were up 13.4 percent. North Island guest nights were up 2.3 percent, and South Island guest nights were up 5.7 percent. Eight of the 12 regional areas had more guest nights. Three of the four accommodation types had more guest nights. The Easter holidays were in March this year, whereas last year they were in April. For the year ended April 2016, national guest nights were up 5.7 percent from the year ended April 2015. Liz MacPherson, Government Statistician ISSN 1178-0207 10 June 2016 Commentary       National guest nights up 3.7 percent Guest nights rise in most regions Domestic guest nights down; international guest nights up Guest nights up for most accommodation types Accommodation capacity down Occupancy rates up All guest night movements are unadjusted unless otherwise stated. Trend and seasonally adjusted movements may be amended when we add future months to the series. National guest nights up 3.7 percent National guest nights spent in short-term commercial accommodation were up 3.7 percent in April 2016, compared with April 2015. The Easter holidays were in March this year, whereas last year they were in April. Both the North and South islands had more guest nights in April 2016 than in April 2015. International guest nights were also higher, as were guest nights for most regional areas and accommodation types. For the year ended April 2016, national guest nights were up 5.7 percent from the April 2015 year. Seasonally adjusted guest nights fell 7.1 percent in April 2016, compared with March 2016. This followed a 5.1 percent rise in March. The trend for national guest nights continued to rise. 2 Guest nights rise in most regions Guest nights were up in eight of the 12 regional areas in April 2016 compared with April 2015. Seasonally adjusted North Island guest nights fell 4.8 percent in April 2016, compared with March 2016. Seasonally adjusted South Island guest nights fell 5.3 percent. Latest guest night trends show a continuing rise for both the North and South islands. 3 Domestic guest nights down; international guest nights up Domestic guest nights were down 2.7 percent in April 2016, compared with April 2015. International guest nights were up 13.4 percent. International visitor arrivals (short-term) were up 8 percent. Seasonally adjusted domestic guest nights fell 12.1 percent in April 2016, compared with March 2016. Seasonally adjusted international guest nights were flat (down just 0.1 percent). Latest guest night trends show a continuing rise for domestic and international guest nights. 4 Guest nights up for most accommodation types Guest nights were up for three of the four accommodation types in April 2016, compared with April 2015:     hotel guest nights up 8.2 percent motel guest nights up 4.3 percent backpacker guest nights up 4.1 percent holiday park guest nights down 5.9 percent. The drop in holiday park guest nights coincides with the Easter holidays falling in March this year, whereas last year they were in April. Domestic guest nights were down for two of the four accommodation types in April 2016, compared with April 2015:     hotels up 1.2 percent motels down 2.1 percent backpackers up 4.3 percent holiday parks down 11.9 percent. International guest nights were up for all four accommodation types in April 2016, compared with April 2015:     hotels up 17.6 percent motels up 22.7 percent backpackers up 4.1 percent holiday parks up 6.8 percent. The following graphs show that for hotels, motels, and holiday parks, domestic guests are usually the main contributor to total guest nights. For backpacker accommodation, international guests are the main contributor, especially during the summer months. 5 Hetel guest nights Metel guest nights Mantth Mantth Guestnights [millian} Tatal Guest nights (millia n} atal 1.5. 1.5- Domestic -- Intematianal Domestic -- Intematianal 5 I I .15 - ?fe H's-Saurce: Statistics New land Source: Statistics New land Backpacker Ell-?35t "iEIh?i5 Helitiay park guest nights Mantth Guestnigi'its [milliam 2-D Tatal Domestic -- Intematianal ,t IZInew: xhs- Tatal Damestic -- Intematianal I 13 14 Saurce: Statistics New land Source: Statistics New land Latest guest night trends are rising for most accommodation types. Guest night trentis Ely,r accammadatian type iv'l?i'lthl?j' Guest nights [million]- ISLEISLE Hatels Matels parks -- Bad-{packers 11 15- Sa rce: Statistics New Eealand Accommodation capacity down Available total capacity in short-term commercial accommodation was down 0.5 percent in April 2016, compared with April 2015. Capacity was down for three accommodation types and unchanged for one:     hotels down 0.7 percent motels down 1.3 percent backpackers down 0.5 percent holiday parks unchanged. Occupancy rates up The occupancy rate was up for three of the four accommodation types in April 2016, compared with April 2015:     hotels up 6.0 percentage points motels up 4.0 percentage points backpackers up 0.9 percentage point holiday parks down 1.0 percentage point. Occupancy rates have been mostly rising during the last three years, due to growth in guest numbers but little change in accommodation capacity. Hotel occupancy rates peaked at a record 80.3 percent in February this year, before easing to 71.9 percent in April. Similarly, motel occupancy rates peaked at 75.3 percent in February, easing to 61.7 percent in April. Occupancy rates usually peak in summer and trough in winter. For more detailed data from the Accommodation Survey, see the Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box. 7 Definitions About the Accommodation Survey The Accommodation Survey is a monthly survey that provides information about short-term commercial accommodation activity at national, regional, and lower levels. Statistics NZ runs the survey, which is sponsored by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Information from the survey is used by regional tourism organisations, local and national government, and the accommodation industry for monitoring and planning. Statistics produced from the survey include guest night numbers, capacity, and occupancy rates. Definitions Average length of stay: calculated by dividing the number of guest nights by the number of guest arrivals. Business Register: database (maintained by Statistics NZ) of all economically significant businesses operating in New Zealand from which we draw the Accommodation Survey population. Capacity (stay-unit): equivalent to one unit of accommodation available to be charged out to guests, eg a hotel room, a motel unit, a backpacker bed, or a tent site or cabin at a holiday park. Domestic guest night: equivalent to one New Zealand resident spending one night at an establishment. Establishment: smallest statistical unit operating within a single physical location and owned by a single enterprise. The term is used to represent what is usually called the 'geographic unit' in other Statistics NZ publications. Guest night: equivalent to one guest spending one night at an establishment. For example, a motel with 20 guests spending two nights would have provided 40 guest nights. International guest night: equivalent to one foreign guest spending one night at an establishment. Occupancy rate: calculated as the average daily percentage of stay-units occupied. For example, if a motel had 5 of its 10 units occupied every night in April, it would have 5 x 30 = 150 stay-unit-nights occupied out of 10 x 30 = 300 stay-unit-nights available. Its occupancy rate would be 150 divided by 300 (50 percent). RTO: Regional Tourism Organisation. Territorial authority: the second tier of local government in New Zealand, below regional councils, ie city councils and district councils. 8 Related links       Next release Past releases Accommodation Survey pivot tables Commercial accommodation monitors Survey information Related information Next release Accommodation Survey: May 2016 will be released on 12 July 2016. Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. The release calendar lists all information releases by date of release. Past releases Accommodation Survey has links to past releases. Accommodation Survey pivot tables Accommodation Survey pivot tables provide detailed information by area, accommodation type, and variable. Commercial accommodation monitors Commercial accommodation monitors are published on the MBIE website and provide detailed information for each regional tourism organisation area. Survey information Data collections – DataInfo+ has the latest survey response rates. Accommodation concepts – DataInfo+ has definitions of terms used in this release. Accommodation Survey – DataInfo+ has general information on the survey. Related information International Travel and Migration statistics record arrivals to, and departures from, New Zealand by overseas visitors, New Zealand resident travellers, and permanent and long-term migrants (immigrants and emigrants). 9 Data quality Period-specific information This section contains data information that has changed since the last release.  Response rates General information This section contains information that does not change between releases.       Data source Coverage Survey errors Interpreting the data Confidentiality More information Period-specific information Response rates Response rates by accommodation type for April 2016 Survey Proportion of guest-night Proportion of origin-of-guest Accommodation response estimate from actual data estimate from actual data rate type Percentage Hotels 81 93 82 Motels 81 83 76 Backpackers 79 85 82 Holiday parks 77 82 80 Total 80 87 80 Source: Statistics New Zealand When businesses do not answer questions in the Accommodation Survey, we estimate the missing information based on data from similar establishments in the same or similar regions. General information Data source We collect data from accommodation providers or their representatives each month, mostly via a postal survey. Coverage The Accommodation Survey covers most short-term commercial accommodation in New Zealand. 10 The target population for this survey is all accommodation providers with the following characteristics:      operating on a commercial basis providing mainly short-term (less than one month) accommodation economically significant (generally meaning being GST-registered and having a turnover of at least $30,000 per year) included in class 4400 (accommodation) or class 4520 (pubs, taverns, and bars) in ANZSIC06 (Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification 2006) classified to 'hotels', 'motels', 'backpacker accommodation', or 'holiday parks'. Excluded:        hosted accommodation (such as ‘bed & breakfast’ establishments) marine vessels (such as cruise ships) private dwellings tramping huts (non-commercial) event-specific accommodation (such as temporary campervan parks) businesses that cease operation or no longer provide short-term commercial accommodation businesses that temporarily shut down (eg for renovations) – we remove them from the survey until they re-open. Accommodation type classification The predominant capacity provided by a business determines the accommodation type. For instance, if the business provides both motel and camping ground accommodation, but the majority of its stay units are motel rooms, then we classify it as a motel. We use the New Zealand Accommodation Classification, broadly defined below:     hotels (including resorts) motels (including motor inns and serviced apartments) backpacker accommodation (including short-stay hostels) holiday parks (including caravan parks and camping grounds). Businesses, over time, may change the way they operate, and therefore be reclassified from one accommodation type to another. For example, if a holiday park adds sufficient motel units or backpacker accommodation that it is not primarily operating as a holiday park, then it will be subject to reclassification. This will affect guest nights and other figures for the accommodation types involved. Survey errors This survey aims for 100 percent coverage of the accommodation businesses in New Zealand (a full census). However, in practice, the overall response rate is usually between 76 and 80 percent. We estimate values for the remaining units based on the characteristics of similar establishments in the same or similar regions. This introduces unknown errors into the estimates, and users of the data should bear this in mind. The size of these unknown errors is difficult to quantify. 11 Other errors include respondent error, and errors in coverage, classification, and processing. Our editing processes identify and remove many errors, but some will likely remain. We cannot quantify the effect of the remaining errors. Interpreting the data Trend estimates For any series, we can break down the survey estimates into three components: trend, seasonal, and irregular. While seasonally adjusted series have the seasonal component removed, the trend series have both the seasonal and the irregular components removed. Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of movement in a series, and are likely to indicate turning points more accurately than seasonally adjusted estimates. We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS seasonal adjustment package to calculate the accommodation trend series. The series are based on optimal moving averages of the seasonally adjusted series, with an adjustment for outlying values. The X-13-ARIMA-SEATS package is an updated version of X-12-ARIMA, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau. The trend estimates towards the end of the series incorporate new data as it becomes available, and can therefore change as we add more observations to the series. Revisions can be particularly large if an observation is treated as an outlier in one month, but we find it to be part of the underlying trend as we add further observations to the series. All trend estimates are subject to revision each month, but normally only the last two or three estimates are likely to be substantially altered. Differences between trend estimates and month-on-month comparisons Trend estimates reveal the underlying direction of the movement in a series. In contrast, comparisons between one month and the same month in the previous year(s) do not take account of data recorded in between these periods, and are subject to one-off fluctuations. Reasons for fluctuations include changes in the timing of holidays, international crises, and large sporting and cultural events. Seasonally adjusted estimates We use the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS package to produce the seasonally adjusted estimates referred to in the 'Commentary' text. Seasonal adjustment aims to eliminate the impact of regular seasonal events. These may be due to climatic effects (such as more guests staying in camping grounds during the summer) or calendar effects (such as holidays). This makes the data for adjacent months more comparable. All seasonally adjusted figures are subject to revision each month. Seasonal adjustment in Statistics New Zealand has more information. Change to how we express capacity in table 5 From the January 2016 release, we express accommodation capacity in table 5 as stay-units. In previous releases, capacity was expressed as stay-unit-nights (stay-units multiplied by the number of days each month). 12 Confidentiality Statistics NZ produces national and regional statistics from a monthly survey of accommodation businesses. We do not release information about individuals or individual businesses. More information See more information about the Accommodation Survey. Principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics Statistics in this release have been produced in accordance with the Official Statistics System principles and protocols for producers of Tier 1 statistics for quality. They conform to the Statistics NZ Methodological Standard for Reporting of Data Quality. Liability While all care and diligence has been used in processing, analysing, and extracting data and information in this publication, Statistics NZ gives no warranty it is error-free and will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by the use directly, or indirectly, of the information in this publication. Timing Our information releases are delivered electronically by third parties. Delivery may be delayed by circumstances outside our control. Statistics NZ does not accept responsibility for any such delay. Crown copyright© This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International licence. You are free to copy, distribute, and adapt the work, as long as you attribute the work to Statistics NZ and abide by the other licence terms. Please note you may not use any departmental or governmental emblem, logo, or coat of arms in any way that infringes any provision of the Flags, Emblems, and Names Protection Act 1981. Use the wording 'Statistics New Zealand' in your attribution, not the Statistics NZ logo. 13 Contacts For media enquiries contact: Neil Kelly Christchurch 03 964 8957 Email: info@stats.govt.nz For technical information contact: John Gudgeon (03 964 8846) or Craig Liken (03 964 8374) Email: info@stats.govt.nz For general enquiries contact our Information Centre: Phone: 0508 525 525 (toll-free in New Zealand) +64 4 931 4600 (outside New Zealand) Email: info@stats.govt.nz Subscription service: Subscribe to information releases, including this one, by completing the online subscription form. Correction notifications: Subscribe to receive an email if a correction notice is published for Accommodation Survey. Unsubscribe to correction notifications for Accommodation Survey. Subscribe to all to receive an email if a correction notice is published for any of our information releases. Unsubscribe to all if you change your mind. 14 Tables See the following Excel tables in the 'Downloads' box on this page. If you have problems viewing the files, see opening files and PDFs. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Guest night totals Domestic and international guest nights Regional guest nights Changes in guest nights: seasonally adjusted and trend Capacity and occupancy rates, by accommodation type Accommodation Survey pivot tables The Accommodation Survey pivot tables provide detailed information by area, accommodation type, and variable. 1. RTO and accommodation type – accommodation data by RTO (Regional Tourism Organisation) area and accommodation type 2. RTO and origin – domestic and international guest nights by RTO area 3. Territorial authority area – accommodation data by territorial authority area. Commercial accommodation monitors Commercial accommodation monitors on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment website provide detailed information for each regional tourism organisation area. Access more data on Infoshare Infoshare allows you to organise data in the way that best meets your needs. You can view the resulting tables onscreen or download them. Use Infoshare For this release, select the following categories from the Infoshare homepage: Subject category: Tourism Group: Accommodation Survey - ACS Next release Accommodation Survey: May 2016 will be released on 12 July 2016. 15