1 Jeffrey Eisenach Back to scholar list Visiting Scholar and Director, Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy Download hi-res photo Research Areas: Intellectual property, Innovation, Internet, Technology, Federal Communications Commission, Telecommunications Contact Info: Jeffrey Eisenach is a visiting scholar at AEI. Eisenach has served in senior positions at the Federal Trade Commission and the Office of Management and @JeffEisenach ffEis Download VCARD Budget. At AEI, he focuses on policies affecting the information technology sector, innovation, and entrepreneurship. Eisenach is also a senior vice president at NERA Economic Consulting and an adjunct professor at the George Mason University Request an interview School of Law, where he teaches Regulated Industries. He writes on a wide range of issues, including industrial organization, communications policy and the Internet, government regulations, labor economics, and public finance. He has also taught at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and at the Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Learn more about Jeffrey Eisenach and AEI’s Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy. Experience Senior Vice President, NERA Economic Consulting, January 2013 – Present Managing Director and Principal, Navigant Economics LLC, January 2010 – January 2014 Adjunct Professor, George Mason University School of Law, 2000-Present Vice President, Economic Club of Washington, 2011-Present 2 Chairman, Empiris LLC, 2008-2010 Chairman, Criterion Economics LLC, 2006-2008 Chairman, The CapAnalysis Group LLC, 2005-2006; Executive Vice Chairman, 2003-2005 President, The Progress & Freedom Foundation, 1993-2003 Adjunct Lecturer, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government, 1995-1999 Executive Director, GOPAC, 1991-1993 Adjunct Professor, George Mason University, 1989 President, Washington Policy Group Inc., 1988-1991 Director of Research, Pete du Pont for President Inc., 1986-1988 Adjunct Professor, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985, 1988 Executive Assistant to the Director, Office of Management and Budget, 19851986 Special Adviser for Economic Policy and Operations, Office of the Chairman, Federal Trade Commission, 1984-1985 Economist, Bureau of Economics, Federal Trade Commission, 1983-1984 Instructor, University of Virginia, 1983-1984 Special Assistant to James C. Miller III, Office of Management and Budget/Presidential Task Force on Regulatory Relief, 1981 Research Associate, AEI, 1979-1981 Education Ph.D., economics, University of Virginia B.A., economics, Claremont McKenna College 3 Keynote Presentation: GSMA Ministerial Programme at Mobile World Congress 2016 Barcelona, Spain 22 February 2016 Hosted By: GSM Association (GSMA) Mobile World Congress is the world’s largest gathering for the mobile industry, organised by the GSMA, and held in the Mobile World Capital, Barcelona, on 22-25 February 2016. GSMA’s Ministerial Programme, held alongside Mobile World Congress, provides a unique and exclusive platform for the top telecommunications policymakers and industry leaders to discuss the most pressing issues affecting the future of the mobile industry. On 22 February 2016, NERA Senior Vice President Dr. Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Co-Chair of the Communications, Media, and Internet practice, will deliver a keynote presentation during a session on New Regulatory Paradigms. His remarks will be based on a new study prepared by NERA for GSMA, “A New Regulatory Framework for the Internet Ecosystem,” which is co-authored by Dr. Eisenach and NERA Associate Director Dr. Bruno Soria. Learn more via the Ministerial Programme website. GSMA Board Constituted in 2003. the Board provides the membership with a stronger voice? clearer direction, and faster decision making. The GSMA Board has 24 members re?ecting the iargest operator groups and members from smaller independent operators with global representation. Jon Fredrik Baksaas Cara-rot an. GSMA Mats Granryd Di'eCLor Gene'al GSMA o:-ite Alejandro A. Maga?a Perez CEO ofTransfe: A'i?erica Mowl Sunil Bharti Mittal B?rrerti Enterprises. Elhart Ainel Li'r'iteo oat-:? Sha V'ce President CI'i-na Mobile Lu Yl Min Cna'rman Chl'l? Un'ted etwo rk Communication-3 Grouo Company Limited Wen:- te Wolfgang Kopf Sei'iio' Vice President for Public 8-: Regulator,r A?a re Deutsc he Teleko We osite Kazuhiro Yoshizawa President. CEO and Member the Boa 'd Di'ectore. NTT DDCOMU. inc Ken Miyauchi P'e: ident a nd CEO SoftEianl: Corp. Weosite Andrew Penn Cnief ExecJtive Oi??ce'. Telstra We 0 site Paolo Benol uzzo "lief Corn merc-al an peratio ne Of?cer. Vodafone Group We osite Hatem Dowidar CEO lnte'natione . Etiea'ar Group We Dante Dr. Nasser Mara?h Member of the Group Board and Adviser to the Chairman. Ooredoo Giuseppe Recchi Executive Cna-ri?nan Teleconi male and Chai' Fonda: one TIM 'i-?Je oaite Kaan Terzioglu Cnief O??cer. TURKCELL Hi manser Ka pa nia Man ag-ng Director ldEB Celluiar Limited DE-IIE Mari-No??lle J?go- Laveissi?re Executive Vice President of Innovaton. Ma r Sent: Tuesday. March 03. 2015 10:53 AM To: Mike Subject: NERA Dinner Confirmation: Wednesday, 4 March I i NERA NERA Economic Consulting looks forward to hosting you for an evening of Mediterranean and Catalan cuisine in Barcelona's L?Eixample neighborhood?home of the renowned Moderniste movement and architecture. El Principal del Eixample Carrer de Provenga, 286-288 Wednesday, 4 March 2015 03003 Barcelona 20.30 Click here for a map Dinner will be hosted by Dr. Jeffrey Eisenash. Dr. Christian Dipponr and Dr. Bruno Soria, in conjunction with their participation at the 2015 GSMA Mobile World Congress. If your plans have Changed. please notify mary.prime@nera.oom. To Ifyeu do n01 web to receive further emaits NERA Fconomic Consulting iror-?I us. o-ease send ail Eli-ail Lo Goya 24. Eth Floor and you wilt be removed 2iti'jU'l Main-:1, Spa 22 Expens Practice Areas About Publications News 8. Events Careers I. it ..I 2 mm! .. Global Locations Contact The Economic Repercussions of Title II Reclassi?cation 06 February 2015 3mm 5?99!? Senior Manager, Marketing Metia Relatiims Recent industry developments indicate that soon Interner servnces Will be reclassrfied under Title ll of the Commurucations Ac: of Wei-Won. no 1934, as amended mos: recently the Telecommunications Act of 1996 *1 2'12 466 9131 fax: -1 202 466 3605 There is strong emdence that this rectassmcation have signi?cant ecmiomic competition. thwarting innovation. and reducing ransom welfare In the United States NERA Economic Consuiting Senior Vice Presidents mom amemm this change will have on arooust Internet ecosystem. Troy have applied rigorous ECONOMIC. analyses to litigati?n. and as amiice to governments. broadband and mobile carriers. as well as other rnousny groups Related Experts ?r Cnnsoan Dippon Dr. Drppon and Dr. Eisenach new puoiLshed on the economic reperurssions of net neutrality and Title II rectass'i?catlon . . . . . 11' A new We hope that you will find their thought leadership on these issues beneficial grven the Impact of this recent indu5try Gayelopment a my '59 Selected Publications . Related Practices ?Ecogomic Reggrgiigs'?gs of applying TlIl? II IQ Internet Services,? 9 September By Dr. Dippon and Dr Jonathan Falli. Cumunk?mns- M94313- ?nd l?tEmEt "Wh'i' Nat NeutralittMattars' Pretentino Consumers and Commotion tnmuoh Meaninoful Dean Internet Rules." testimony of Jeffrey A. Eisenacl'i, before the Comniittee on the Judiciary, United States Senate. September 2014. "in Search of a tampon; on ?guring [or Information Tech?ggy Markets: Recent Antitrust Development; in me gt} Sector," 17 November 2014. By Dr. with liene Knaole (Sorts of Wacntell, Lipton, Rosen 3. Kate. "Mobile Wimless nggm?iaugg in the ?g and me Implications for Policy." 31 March ants. By Dr. Eisenach With Erik Bohlin and Kevin W. Cave-5. onsmner Demand for Mania PM 2mg; In the US: An Examination beyond the Mobile Phone.? 28 Fehmary am By Dr Dippon. For more information please contau Dr Dippon and Dr Eisenach directiy Dr. tian Senior Vice President and CoaCnair of Communications. Media. and lntemet Practice +1 2W.i 456 9270 christiandiopgn?ggzamm Dr. Jeffrey A Elsenagh Senior Vice President and Co-Chair of Communicanons. Media, and Internet Practice +1 202 466 902.9 [ef?eiswch@nor? i'ihout HERA. NERA Economic Consulting Is a global ?rm of experts dedicated to applying economic. financo. and quantitative principles to complex business and legal challenges For over half a century. NERA's economists have been creating Strategies. studies. reports. expert mommy. and policy recommendations for government authorities and the world's leading law firms and corporations. We tiring academic rigor, and real world indusn?y experience to bear on issues analog from compotition. regulation, public policy. strategy. finance. and litigation. NERA's clients value our ability to apply and communicate state-of?therart approaches cleany and our cornrtiitment to oeiiver unbiased ?ndings. and our reputation for quality and indeperxience. Our clients reiy on the integrity and Skills of our unparalleled team oi Economists and other experts backed by the resources and reliability of one of the wond's large5t atomic consultancres. its main of?ce in New York City NEHA serves clients from more than 25 of?ces acmss North Artienca. Europe. and Asia Pacific. 23 The Opinion Pages Don’t Make the Internet a Public Utility Jeffrey Eisenach, a former official with the Federal Trade Commission, is a visiting scholar and the director of the Center for Internet, Communications and Technology Policy at the American Enterprise Institute. UPDATED FEBRUARY 5, 2015, 12:41 PM Since its commercialization by the Clinton administration in the 1990s, the Internet has stood as a monument to the success of American entrepreneurship and innovation, a testament to the power of free markets largely unfettered by the dead hand of government regulation. The Federal Communications Commission will try to end that later this month, upending two decades of bipartisan precedent by declaring the Internet to be a “public utility.” We know what public utilities are; economists call them “natural monopolies.” Water and gas pipes; electricity distribution; bridges and tunnels. The Internet is not a monopoly. Wireline and wireless carriers compete – and innovate – at a furious pace. Utilities, on the other hand, operate where it makes sense to have just one provider, because the costs of operating a second one are too high to justify the exercise. We regulate public utilities because they are, by definition, monopolies – but the costs of regulation are high. Rather than business decisions being made in the marketplace, they are contrived by politicians and bureaucrats who are, in turn, influenced by the lobbying campaigns not just of the utilities but of everyone with a stake – customers, suppliers and labor unions all get involved. Any notion that such processes are “above politics” has been put to the lie by the F.C.C. itself, which has allowed its net neutrality rulemaking to be turned into a political circus of the first order. The result is that public utilities are among our least innovative, worst-performing industries. Search the phrase “America’s aging infrastructure” and you will find dozens of articles and studies detailing lack of 24 adequate investment in our bridges, gas pipelines, electricity transmission systems and other utilities. Sixty-two percent of the gas mains in Washington, for example, are more than 50 years old. Declaring the Internet a public utility is not necessary, and it will surely prove to be unwise. Join Opinion on Facebook and follow updates on twitter.com/roomfordebate. Topics: Internet, Technology, net neutrality Ht riil'n 1r nth?.- From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2015 4:40 PM To: Matthew Berry Subject: Save the date: Senator Thune and Tech Policy Experts Look Ahead to 2015 Mark your calendars: On Wednesday, January 23, Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy will convene a half-day conference to look ahead at the top tech policy issues of 20 5. The conference will feature a keynote address by Senator John Thune and panel discussions in which AEI scholars and outside experts will address issues ranging from cybersecurity to Internet governance and from municipal broadband to incentive auctions. As tech policy issues move to the fore in the national debate, this conference will offer unique insights into the year ahead. The conference will begin at 12:30 pm. and adjourn at 5:00 with Senator Thune's remarks scheduled for 2:00 pm. Invitations and further details to follow. Click here to RSVP. I hope you can join us. Sincerely, Jeffreyr A. Eisenach Director, Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy American Enterprise Institute fli??lfd??l?l Emmy: rim Institute for Pooh? Fel'fcf Research As: Mm. From: Matthew Berry Sent: Sunday, January 25. 2015 2:53 PM To: Jeffrey Elsenach Subject: RE: AEI Conference next week Sounds good. See you on Wednesday. From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Saturday, January 24, 2015 12:53 PM To: Matthew Berry Subject: Re: AEI Conference next week Matthew This is great news. The panel is on the FCC agenda for 2015, which you know better than any of us, so just pick the items you think are of greatest interest. lam inclined to ask you to speak first, and to go for 10-12 minutes a mini speech, if you like. Does that work? Best, Jeff Jeff Eisenach 202-443-9029 @Jef?feisena ch On Jan 24, 2015, at 11:10 AM, Matthew Berry wrote: Jeff, Thanks for the invitation! I should be able to participate; ljust need to make sure that lcan move one meeting. I?ll let you know by tomorrow morning. a Any specific topics that you want me to cover? All the best, a Matthew From: Jeffrey Eisenach [Jeffrey.Eisenach@AElprg] Sent: Friday, January 23, 2015 5:53 PM To: Matthew Berry Subject: Conference next week 3? Matthew - Sorry for the last-minute notice, but AEI is holding a conference next Wednesday on the tech policy agenda in 2015 and l?m wondering if you would be interested in speaking on a panel. The first panel in the conference, at 1:00 pm, is on 27 the FCC agenda for the year. You ceuld lead eff the panel, erJust be one of the panelists. The ether are Richard Bennett, Babette Beliek, Daniel Lyons, and Gus Hurwita. 2} See 2? Best, Jeff Jeff Elsenach 2: 202-443-9029 a @Jeffeisenach ,?arucr. :5 20's '2 New 5 My: ech policy 2015: The year ahead Event Summary While rh.a Inipar: n? terhnn: ?y on our rla'y-m-day live; [ethnology hay DitL'n failed to keep Dr: Wudnceda'j al AEI. SL'nulur John Thur-l: IR empty-July] Amerlra't rnle ac. a ?lehal nf anrl listed th' :t-rhnnin?y pent-,- tn?lan?P?. Langley; WI Ireutl In uddleu}. Including an update to the (ammunltohenu '31: II1cIrIcl prelutal trans-hen. bade-n; the clueI tal dIv-d-z. and cytelsecurlt?y. The eenateu also err? phaaizea the need ion bznammn tupporr rn man-1mm the tranncn of ham handed regularlon aftne Interrer ?owner- II1 three uI'lereIIt panel JEI and eumue taupe-L5 ?1 en nearest. The tmnmun-raunna rnrr'rrI-mnn 'h and In The panel. FCC: uwr- Matthew Surly enthused the dyenty?: LUIrt-Irn Tl'e wtned nanel on poilf'fl'n?kl?? In tl'ln?f??t. during; panellirt cnn?menw?d an The lf?lErL?DE'; and The It: ul' [hE' Internr-T and ellKr on trade. t'ee meet h. and pinperry pamupanh pl'L'dlLIt'd 'Jml Ethnology In unc Ur Ihu key ptz'lt'jmakm; WII- ?o-Lua an In 201 Juyu Wang Event Description Please i:Jln Carnal and lur a 'Ut?Jl- ahead at the rap Terh Thune [Ft $275 mil pretent a keynote :Idrleece m?rl pant-:r. Ul' AEI stholars and uulsldu Elli-Flt el-IIz d-stuss ewes Ille km. and mun ripal bmarlhand. r'ytPr'qulrI-iy_ Internet gnaw-manure, ant! InrerJI-re annit: n1. uo= 'y rrluw: [he iurL' 'nL- rmllOlldl dubalu. Lnli?L-rtllu: will offer m?l?hli me rhe rnnuertarlcn an ?ting enumean I Read Chairman Thune's prepared remarks here. If you are unable to attend. we welmme you to watch the went live on this page. Full video will lie posted within 24 Itnurs. Agenda 12'30 AM Reg?t'anon and Inl'lf? 12.45 Opening remarks Jeffrey Eiseneth. ALI LSD PM Regulatory :Itnumrn .tr tne I?t I nailing armn Tn Mark lamina-n PURE, Uni-rerun; nl l-Inrmn F'a "lHI-blki Richard Bennett_ AH Matthew Berry FCC Babette Balielt. AH Gus Humitz. MI Daniel Lyon: .36 15:2: PM Keynote. dIStuSSI-Zal'l, and audience DEA john Thune. Il': 'aemre an c-ngrenc fl! remmu .anant policy; ?rotpr-rlr. for reform Mud-er alu Richard Bennett. AFI F'u'wl-L-la: Ray Baum. Ht: use remnant-e an Fnel'lty and t'amn' arte Peter Davidson. Var-rm Markjemison Unwexszelr oi I'lerlda Roslyn. Layton. MI Illet Swanson AEI 13:1 PM L?ybw spate us. hallo? Male: E?w Int-smut lstl'lj unguum Half-e" Moderarn?: Eisenath. Ml Pa eel-art: David Greta. INLET Hem LLP David Post New Ameritd l'ouraLiat-urz Ariel Rahltin AH Turn Sydner. Shane ?we AH 5 {33 PM Event Contact information For t'l'.ll'l Cle f; itl' .535}. Ail VHF-I55 1- "Jr {Jim Frr'rl Ik?l? 250:5.ng 50m) Cont-Lt Infn: 0 xi. 5 '.i5 tented Infu: .- July 2015 7 5 I . I vm-anv -n '5 "ii! REMARKS OF MATTHEW BERRY, CHIEF OF STAFF TO FCC COMMISSIONER AJIT PAI AT THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE "TECH POLICY 2015: THE YEAR AHEAD" WASHINGTON, DC JANUARY 28, 2015 I was a bit surprised when the American Enterprise Institute asked me to speak about the FCC's agenda for 2015. After all, I work in an office that doesn't set the agenda for the Commission. There is only one man who does that now, and his name, of course, is Barack Obama. Yes, these days Orange Is the New Black and Presidential YouTube videos are the new FCC Sunshine Notices. Nevertheless, it's an honor to be with you today to discuss the FCC's activities for the upcoming year. I wish I could predict that in 2015 the FCC will move forward in a bipartisan fashion, that we will seek consensus, and that the input of every Commissioner's office will be valued. This, after all, is how the FCC has traditionally operated. But that hasn't been the case lately. Instead, the Commission is being run in an extremely partisan and divisive manner. Consider the following statistic. In the last fifteen months, there have been more party-line votes at FCC meetings than there were under Chairmen Martin, Copps, Genachowski, and Clyburn combined. Time and time again, Republican offices have been willing to meet the Chairman's Office more than halfway to reach consensus. But time and time again, our outstretched hand of compromise has been slapped away. The partisanship has manifested itself in other ways as well. The Chairman's Office has rejected edits from Republican Commissioners, saying they would cross redlines, only to turn around and accept those very same edits when offered by Democratic Commissioners. Draft items have been circulated exclusively to Democratic Commissioners. And oftentimes, Republican Commissioners have been denied the opportunity to vote on important items altogether as they instead have been released on delegated authority at the Chairman's direction. But it doesn't have to be this way at the Commission, and it shouldn't. For example, I had the privilege of serving as the Commission's General Counsel under Kevin Martin. And while he, like any Chairman, was subject to his share of criticism, no one can dispute that Chairman Martin was willing to look past party labels. On high-profile items, he was willing to vote with members of the minority party and against members of his own party. In fact, the Comcast-BitTorrent case that propelled us along the path of net neutrality litigation was adopted by the Chairman and the two Democrats. (It's hard to imagine any vote nowadays with a similar breakdown.) And Chairman Martin made a strong effort to get a unanimous vote where possible. Indeed, some of you can probably remember the start of some meetings being delayed for hours as the Commissioners sought to reach a bipartisan consensus. As partisanship at the FCC has been on the rise, our independence has been in decline; you might say it's like a see-saw. And that brings me to the most high-profile item on the FCC's agenda for 2015. Unfortunately, it appears likely that the Commission will vote next month to impose heavy-handed Title II regulation on our nation's broadband providers. But it should be obvious that most members of the FCC don't actually believe that Title II regulation is a good idea. Rather, the FCC is heading down the Title II path because of inappropriate interference by the White House in the Commission's deliberations. Indeed, the FCC's flip-flop on Title II following the President's announcement brings to mind France's Henry IV. To secure his throne in 1593, Henry renounced his Protestant faith and converted to Catholicism. He explained his rationale with a line that since became famous: "Paris is well worth a Mass." Now, to be sure, "the Portals is well worth Title II" doesn't have quite the same ring to it. But the underlying point is the same. The flip-flops aren't limited to the FCC. It's not much of a secret that the FCC has been trying to convince companies to abandon their opposition to Title II. And we all know that the Commission has a wide range of carrots and sticks at its disposal. That's just one reason why Commissioner Pai strongly supports the request made by Chairman Thune, Chairman Upton, and Chairman Walden for the FCC to release publicly the text of the Title II order that will be circulated on February 5th. The American people should know whether the item doles out any special regulatory favors to companies that have succumbed to the FCC's pressure. If there are any Cornhusker Kickbacks or Louisiana Purchases in the order, that should come to light before, not after, the vote. Indeed, the American people and the press should be able to examine every aspect of the proposed rules in unvarnished form before the vote. They shouldn't have to rely on press releases and blog posts written solely to whip up support for the item. It is also important to emphasize that the Commission's vote in February will not be the end of the fight over Title II. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, it will not even be the beginning of the end. Rather, it will just be the end of the beginning. While advocates for free markets, the rule of law, and common sense will likely lose at the Commission's February meeting, I believe that we are likely to prevail in our long-run effort to preserve our nation's successful and bipartisan light-touch regulatory approach to the Internet. There are at least three routes to success. First, the Commission's Title II order could be vacated in court. Second, Congress could pass legislation overturning the Commission's Title II regulation and replacing it with compromise language for protecting the Open Internet. Or third, after the 2016 elections, a new FCC majority could reverse the Commission's decision. Notably, Title II opponents need to win only one of these fights while Title II supporters must prevail in all three. Furthermore, the longer that Title II regulation is in effect, the greater support there will be for ending it. Title II supporters now have the luxury of being able to blithely claim that Title II regulation won't depress investment in maintaining, improving, or expanding broadband networks, that it won't raise costs, that it won't drive smaller providers out of business. To put it another way, they are claiming that if you like your Internet, you can keep your Internet. But that assertion is about as credible as it was for health care. So as the negative impacts of Title II mount, support for Title II will decline. Again, envision a see-saw. Now if Title II is the most important item on the Commission's agenda this year, our work on the broadcast incentive auction is probably the second most important. And on that subject, too, there is substantial cause for concern. When it comes to spectrum auctions, we know what works. Keep the rules simple and don't restrict participation. Let the market function. Just look at the success of the AWS-3 auction. There, the Commission worked together in a bipartisan manner. We adopted simple rules. We didn't restrict participation. And as Commissioner Pai has pointed out, the results speak for themselves. Over $44.8 billion in bids so far, an amount that far surpasses the most optimistic pre-auction projections. Contrast that approach with how the Commission has handled the incentive auction. By necessity, the incentive auction was always going to be more complicated than past auctions. But the Commission has repeatedly made decisions that will make the auction far more complicated than it needs to be. While some have analogized the incentive auction to a Rubik's Cube, the Commission is turning it into a Rube Goldberg contraption. Why? The FCC is trying to pick winners and losers in the forward auction. It is trying to pressure broadcasters into accepting below-market prices in the reverse auction. And the proceeding is being handled in a nakedly partisan manner, with Republican input on matters great and small rejected at every turn. 2 Fortunately, it is not too late for the Commission to get back on the right track, and the conclusion of the AWS-3 auction gives us the chance to do just that. We have heard bipartisan calls recently for the Commission to take a pause, to consider delaying the incentive auction, and to reexamine some of our rules. This makes good sense for at least two reasons. First, wireless carriers spent far more money than anticipated in the AWS-3 auction, and they will need time to replenish capital prior to the start of the incentive auction. Having carriers bring plenty of money to the table isn't a luxury; it's a necessity. If they don't, the auction will fail. And there are no mulligans; the law only gives the FCC one chance to get this right. Second, a pause will give us the opportunity to apply lessons from the AWS-3 auction to the incentive auction. It's not too late to simplify the rules. It's not too late to open up participation. And it's not too late to work together in a bipartisan manner rather than saying no to almost every suggestion offered by a Republican Commissioner. As Commissioner Pai has stated, a delay is in virtually everyone's interest. But I want to take a minute to explain in particular why broadcasters interested in participating should support a pause. It's simple. If broadcasters want to receive top dollar for their spectrum, then they are going to need wireless carriers to come to the auction with as much money as possible. And that means providing carriers with enough time in between the AWS-3 auction and the incentive auction to raise capital. Moreover, I can't understand why broadcasters would want the auction to proceed under rules designed to obtain their spectrum at below-market prices. If broadcasters don't mind being nickel-anddimed, then by all means they should want the Commission to continue full speed ahead. But if they want the Commission to change course on such anti-broadcaster policies as dynamic reserve pricing, then they should support a pause. *** Net neutrality and the incentive auction are just two of the important items the FCC will be addressing in 2015. From the IP Transition to municipal broadband, from the 5 GHz band to the Universal Service Fund, the Commission's plate is more than full. And our office stands ready to work on all of these issues in a constructive, bipartisan manner. But as the saying goes, it takes two to tango. Given recent experience, I can't say that I'm expecting the Commission to suddenly stop pursuing a narrow, partisan agenda and return to the center. But there are benefits to having low expectations. As George Will put it, "The nice part of being a pessimist is that you are constantly either being proven right or pleasantly surprised." I, for one, would certainly rather be pleasantly surprised by the FCC in 2015. 3 From: Susan Fisenne 2'9 Sent: Tuesday, December 16, 2014 9:13 AM To: Jeffrey Eisenach; Evelyn Smith Ce: Robin Colwell; Erin McGrath; Amy Bender Subject: RE: January 14 Event at AEI Good morning Je?? and Evelyn, Following up on my conversation with Evelyn yesterday afternoon regarding the room availability on 1/14, we would like to move the date to the following Wednesday, January 21SI . We would prefer to keep this as a iLulehtime event and, as you suggest, cell it ?The FCC in 2015: A Conversation with Commissioner Mike 0 ?Rie?y. The Commissioner will have around 15 minutes of remarks on a to'picitopios not yet decided followed by 10-15 minutes of Qsm. Thanks so much and please don?t hesitate to call me if you have any questions! Susan Susan Fisenne Con?dential Assistant Office of Commissioner Mike O?Riell'y Federal Communications Commission DC 10554 (202.! 418-2301 u?r. ..-. From: Jeffrey Elsenach ailto:J . a ABLO 1 Sent: Monday, December 15, 2014 3:26 PM To: Mike ORieIly Cc: Susan Flsenne; Evelyn Smith Subject: RE: January 14 Event at AEI Copying Evelyn Smith at Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Visiting Scholar on Int to un Poll wwttechnolicvdailvxom @JeffElsenach 202-448-9029 From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Monday, December 15, 2014 3:25 PM Tn: Cc: Subject: January 14 Event at AEI 30 Mr. Commissioner -- Thanks for agreeing to speak at AEI on January 14. In order to start marketing the event, we need guidance on two issues, subject and format. With respect to the subject, net neutrality is obviously top of mind, and I'd be delighted if you would use the opportunity to lay out the case against Title II (and indeed against NN regulation in general), and perhaps discuss whether a statutory resolution Is called for (as I am hoping that will be in the mix by then). You could also go with a different topic, or something broader. If you haven't decided, we can simply call it "The FCC in 2015: A Conversation with Commissioner Mike D?Rielly." Regarding format, the obvious choices are a standnup speech followed by or an "interview" format {with the interviewer being your's truly). Let us know your preference. Lastly, we sometimes do a panel discussion following speeches, but that will depend on topic. I think you decide to talk about net neutrality, we probably would use the opportunity to pull some folks tOgether. But we'll need to have a pretty clear idea of the topic before going in that direction, so if you haven't really decided we will likely forego the panel. I'm around if it's easier to chat. You can always get me on 202-448-9029. Best, Jeff PS: I believe we are also talking about timing -- we have reserved a room for the entire day, but obviously won't use all that. Would you like to do a lunch? Let us know. Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Visiting Scholar Centerf rI at mu ication a hnol lit: Warsaw @JeffEisenach 202-448-9029 3 1 leffrey Eisenach @Jefl?Eisenach jonuary 15. 2075 The Hill Light at the end of the tunnel? Congress offers an exit strategy on net neutrality Economics. Technology and Innovation Struire rsroci: Back in February 2014. when FCC Chairman Torn Wheeler announced that he intended to issue a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to write new net neutrality rules in the wake ofthe DC Circuit?s decision in Verizon v. FCC. the American Enterprise Institutes Richard Bennett responded by warning that net neutrality could become "Wheeler?s Vietnam.? Honestly, I thought then that the Vietnam analogy might be an overreach. Relying on Chairman Wheelers public statements at the time. I wrote then that "while net neutrality advocates are chomping at the they may not get their way.? circus that threatens not only to do real harm to the-Internet but also to destroy-whatever credibility remains in the-notion that expert independent agencies can be insulated from crass political influence. Like Presidentiohnson, Chairman Wheeler?s best intentions have been overwhelmed by forces beyond his control. Net neutrality has indeed become ?Wheeler?s Vietnam." Yesterday. Congress offered him an exit strategy. The Chairmen of the Senate and House commerce committees. Sen.john Thune and Rep. Fred Upton. announced that they will soon introduce legislation to clarify the Commission's net neutrality authority and establish "unambiguous rules of the road that protect Internet users and can help spurjob creation and economic growth." The two chairs invited Mr. Wheeler to work with them to craft the bill. He ought to take them up on the offer. How did we get where we are today? A year ago. when the current chapter of the net neutrality saga began. was persuaded by the Chairman?s assurances that he intended to move ahead with a consumer welfare focused approach designed to identify and prevent speci?c instances of harmful conduct. while avoiding onerous. one-size??ts all regulations. Onjanuary 14. 2014. in a biog reacting to the DC Circuit's decision. he wrote the following: My strong preference is to [police net neutrality] in a common law fashion. taking account of and learning from the particular facts that have given rise to concern. The preference is based on a desire to avoid both Type {false positives} and Type II {false negatives} errors. It is important not to prohibit or inhibit conduct that is efficiency producing and competition enhancing. It also is important not to permit conduct that reduces ef?ciency. competition. and utility. Including the values that go beyond the material. The principles provide sufficient guidance to set expectations for both producers and consumers. If something appears to go wrong in a material. not a trivial. way. the FCC will be available to use the totality of its authority for adjudication and enforcement. It will look to the Open internet Order principles and it will examine the fees in light ofthe principles. When the NRPM was released in May. it appeared to follow through on this commitment to a light?touch approach despite the protesters outside the Commission of?ces and hecklers inside the commission room itself. Even as left?wing interest groups ramped up their lobbying. subsequent statements. including a thoughtful lune speech by FCC General Counsel Jonathan Sallet. suggested that the ?light touch" approach was still on track. Privately. I was told by a number of knowledgeable sources that the White House political team was "under control." and that intervention on that front wasn?t a concern. A lot of water has passed over the dam since then. First. net neutrality activists managed to turn what should bea dispassionate. fact?based rulemaking process into adefocto plebiscite an exercise in mob rule in which the outcome is determined (or at least affected) by which party proves capable of generating the most clickethrough electronic "votes" on the "electronic comment ?ling system.? That ?5 the very antithesis of how independent agencies were intended to work. and it is to no one?s credit that it has been given credence even encouraged by top level FCC of?cials. Next came Netflix and the battle over Internet interconnection. In hisjanuary biog. Chairman Wheeler assured readers that he was not "interested in presiding over a festival of rent seeking." And yet that is precisely what the Net?ix battle was all about crony capitalism in which some companies [Net?ixi demand free stuff from other companies ilSPsi. ultimately at consumers' expense. And while the FCC initially said it would stay out of this ?ght. it has since opened an investigation to "collect information." and Net?ix iS still pushing the issue. The final straw came in November with President Obarna's unprecedented. inappropriate intervention. in the form of a YouTube video released when the President was. of all places. in China. As I said then. the political nature of the White House?s intervention made "a mockery of any sense of independence or impartiality." Chairman Wheeler reacted the only way he could. by asserting (against all appearances) that the FCC remains an independent agency am an independent agency" was The exact quote}, and kicking the decision down the road a couple of months in order to create an impression of separation. But the pressure has proven too great. and last week in Las Vegas the Chairman appeared to capltuiate. signalling that he will. indeed. propose a rule that would declare the Internet to be a 'Title ii service" a public utility. I still think Chairman Wheeler started this process With the best of intentions. and that he believed ?as I also mistakenly believed that he could guide it to a sensible outcome. But the politics of the thing have proven too strong. and the result if the three Democratic Commissioners indeed carry through on a party-line vote. as planned. at the FCC's February 26 meeting will be to prolong and escalate a battle that is neither wise nor necessary. Senator Thune and Representative Upton have offered an alternative course a path towards a sensible policy backed by statutory certainty. a path out of the net neutrality quagmire rather than deeper Into it. in the heavily polarized environment that is todays Washington. it would be a remarkable act of leadership for Chairman Wheeler to join them in seeking a bi? partisan. consensus solution. Off the Street Video Research The Obscure - Blogger who Reversed the Recession Is the Democratic Party Shilling Away from Capitalism? Paul Singer. "Close to a Guarantee" - Trump Wins of a 'Widespread Global Recession" Donald Trump?s Seven Point Plan to Reform "Our Failed Trade Policy" More Politlml Wdeos POLL 41mm Prosidult Ohlmz Job Approval REP All! rage Approve 45'. DisapprDUE 46.5 Spread Guru-fr Con patient You RCP Average Demons: 45.; Suread 2.0 Direction. off-mun]? IICP Average Right Directicr' Track 5-5-0 Spread 40.9 Camper-53ml] Jul: Approval RWAnrage incline 13.4 Disappr: -e Spread - 61.? 1mm Poou?srn Is clouding Europe's Future hWlw' I?m So Shot-ting Bonds Donald Trump 1: Either Amazingly Dishonest or Incredibly- Ignorant Lehman Wasn't I Crisis, But Too Big To Fail was ?Banking and the Laugh-bl! 'Hone?f Multiplier' World Science Policy Tech Energy Religion Defense Sports 65500 ilvu-Iiilml 15' .?ull Is the Only Way to An Open Bchf??cy Ejscnac-lt The Federal Colmuunicatious Commission is actively considering turning the inte across industry into a public utility by classifying it as a "Title 11" service under the Communications Act of 19 34. Proponents of the idea. including President Dbalua. argue that doing so is necessary to protect "the open Internet" and all the benefits it has produced. Ereryone is for preserving an open Internet. but replacing a competitive indu st ry with a regulated utility is not the tray to do it. Broadband competition has produced a remarkably innovative. dynamic market in which output and performance double. and prices are cut in half. are 11' few years. You can't say that about public utilities. The public utility model is a rcsponsa to the problem of natural mo nopolr: In some industries -- water. electricity and natural gas distribution among them -- economies of scale are so strong that the is 1.0. harm ilmle such industries is not only inefficient but. in. the lo ug run. unsustainable: In a competitive market. the largest firm will ultimately drive out the rest. Different countries have dealt with the natural monopoly problem in different pays. much of the world. governments owned everything from outer systems to railroads. airlines and telephone networks. In the government oixnership ?as the exception rather than the rule: gorernntent ran the Post Office. a few municipal utilities. and the Tennessee Valle? Authority. but for the most part left industries in private hands. owrseen by public utility commissions. The downsides of both app roaches are well documented. First. and foremost. ?lien gore lune It! ta ks 5 charge of allocating economic re source 5. politics inevitably comes into play. Regulated firms want higher prices. customers lounr ones and suppliers. including organized labor. have skin in the game as well. All of the affected interests have strong incentives to "capture" the regulator through various forms of lobbying (or no r59 The remedy -- forcing bureaucrats to navigate a forest of procedural requirements before making any important decision can be worse than the disease. especially in industries where speed and flexibility are important. The upshot is that public utilities whether government otmed or not systematically underperform industries that are subject to competition. One major issue is the lack of political support for needed investment in the upkeep and modernization of existing facilities. Search the phrase "America's aging infrastructure" and you ?ill find article after article about our outmoded electricity grid. water systems still using lead pipes. and citizens killed in natural gas explosions resulting from inadequate investment. For example. 195:! Today reports That. on average. gas leaks cause property damage. or death at least once even: other day. In the last 10 years. gas explosions have killed 13 5 people. injured over boo. and caused more than 32 billion in property damage. Sixty-tun percent of the gas mains in l?t?ashington. DC are more than 50 years old. There is plenty of economic evidence that public utilities under-perform competitive nmrkets. For example. a recent studyby economists at the Bureau of Economic Analysis found that the output of the utility sector actually shrank by about two percent annually between 1993 and 2010. Another. by Harvard?s Dale and others. shows the utility sector actually contributed negatively to 11.5. productivity growth over the post- World War II period The broadband sector. by contrast. is growing and irmorating. literally. as fast as the Internet itself. T. S. broadband connections are getting aster by more than a third annually. and the amount of traffic carried is doubling every three years. Americans use mo re data than in any other country except South Korea (and. by some measures. Japan]. The BEA studv ranks Broadcasting and among the top ten sectors in terms of contributions to GDP growth. inuncdiatcly behind Information and Data Processing Services and ahead of Computer Systems Design and Related Services. Jorgenson ranks the sector sixth (out of more than 60} for contributions to producti't'ityr grou'tlx. These results don't prove that public utility regulation. in and of it self. causes slow growth. but that' do demonstrate how fundamentally different broadband is from the industries we treat as public utilities. We still generate electrons using the technology invented by Michael Faraday in the 18205. and distribute it over the same old copper Hires {too often literally the same wires}. The same is basically true for Water and gas. But broadband is constantly evolving; the ?rst major fiber optic Verizon's is 1955 than a decade old and the technology '5 already in its second major generation. Today's .rG LTE uireless networl? left the drawing board less than five years ago at about the time the FCC was issuing its last round of net neutrality regulations. Competition isn't an option in every industry. but it is Working and producing great results in the market for broadband. Promoting competition. not replacing it with a public utility model. is the best way to preserve the economic and. social bene?ts of a free and open Internet. )1 - A AEI scholars' statements on White H?use intervention in the FCC's Open Internet proceeding The Edit-re - '.F17 retree?ntrl, 74112? [new The just li'S support *?nr Tltle etthe tnternet While Dresident {theme at the Independence ththe FCC In his tentreuereial statement We tall for retlaseI-?itatlen I5 3 Intewentlen In engeth rulemaking preteeures scholars share en the announcements fer lSPe and consumers alike. Jeffrey Eisenach: the I I uses:- tiareetett e3 he an .th- ?w .nu tween-w rtte mesa eutrt?ttre Fit-e Mutt- -: .n .rnse'tee .5: Hr (ml, Met: 35.95JII ill I'r 'aI I'llAJII L'Ntu' From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Tuesday, October 14, 2014 3:02 PM To: Mike ORielly Cc: Susan Fisenne Subject: RE: Invite to AEI Mike As promised, here are some potential near-tenn dates for a speech at AEI. Among these, 11120 and 12H both stand out as good options. (I think the week of we should avoid the 11/21-26 Let us know if any of these work -- as discussed, the topic is up to you, but obviously Net Neutrality is on everyone's mind. Best, Jeff 11f17: Breakfast possible, but we have to be out by 10:30. (although Mondays generain sees lower attendance). 11(20: Lunch possible ok 11I21: Breakfast ok, lunch ok (although Fridays generally sees lower attendance). 11I24: Breakfast ok, lunch ok (atthough Mondays generally sees lower attendance). 111?25: Breakfast ok, lunch ok. IUZG: Breakfast ok, lunch ok. 12,!1: Breakfast ok, lunch ok (although Mondays generally sees lower attendance). Jeffrey A. Eisenach. Ph. 1). . Vi I?ll-ting Scholar Center. .Commu Rollo)? )tiaibzcom c?Eiscnach 202448-9029 From: Mike ORielly [Mike.ORleily@fcc.goy] Sent: Friday, October 10, 2014 3:50 AM To: Jeffrey Eisenach Subject: RE: Invite to AEI Jeff, Many thanks for your email. I appreciate your kind words. Sadly Courtney went on to another role in the communications space. Good for her and bad for me. Let me circle back with you on your very generous offer. I'd love to make it may just be an issue oftiming. All my best, mike From: Jeffrey Eisemach [mallto?c?t??l?enaclLQ?AELow] Sent: Friday, October 10, 2014 8:49 AM To: Mike ORielly Subject: Invite to AEI 35 Mike First, congratulations on the and thank you for your continuing service. Second, I?ve bean sending emails to Courtney for a couple of weeks Inviting you to come give a speech at AEI -- and only found out this morning that she's left you to go to lii'erizon. Oh my! Anyway, we have waited much to long to have you over to AEI, but it occurred to us that sometime in the next few weeks might be a pretty good time, especiallyF if you would like a chance to address the net neutrality proceeding. Let me know if that would be of Interest, and if there are dates that might work. And. if either the topic or the timing doesn't work, let us know and we'll figure something out. We would be very honored to have you. All the best, Jeff Eisenach Jeffrey A. Elsenach. Visiting Scholar @JeffElsenach 202-448-9029 From: Sent To: Subject: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2014 9:36 AM To: Nicholas Degani Cc: Guro Ekrann; Gus Hurwitz Subject: RE: Thanks Nick. Look forward to seeing you next week. Jeffreyr A. Eisenach, Visiting Scholar Center for lnternet, Communications and Technology Policyr @JeffEisenach 202-443-902 9 From: Nicholas Degani [NicholasDegani@fcc.gov] Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2014 9:34 AM To: Jeffrey Eisenach Cc: Guro Ekrann; Gus Hurwitz Subject: Re: Glad to join! Jonathan emailed the chiefs of staff for each of the Commissioners, which is how I was looped in. I'll reach out to a few people to join as well, and l?m excited to have such a great event coming here! Best, -Nick D. From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Wednesday, September 3, 2014 8:36 AM To: Nicholas Degani Cc: Guro Ekrann; Gus Hurwitz Subject: Nick -- We are delighted you can participate. As you might imagine; putting together has been something of an adyenture. (Though Jonathan Loyy could not hai?J been more helpful at every etage.)I Anyway, can you tell us how you learned of the conference? Is it being well publicized within the Regardless, you should feel free to reach out to others there who might be interested -- as of now. we haye room for additional FCC attendees all three days. BesL Jeff Jeffrey A, Eisenach, Visiting Scholar Center for InternetJ Communications and Technology Policy-:htt to it cict} @Je?Eisenach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ent: Wednesday, May 07, 2014 1:43 PM To: Ajit Pai Cc: Nicholas Degani Subject: RE: Follow Up Follow Up Flag: Follow up Flag Status: Completed Sorry -- Here's the link to the Bennett transition-[smog 123523383??3,pdf Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Visiting Scholar Center for Internet, communications and Iechnology Pong: effEisenach 202-443-9029 From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Wednesday, May 2014 11:24 AM To: a'it. ai or Cc: nicholas.deoani@fcc.o0y Subject: Follow Up Ajlt and Nic -- Great to see you this morning. Richard Bennett?s Outlook paper on the IF transition is a great read, as is the Novell decision, which is attached. Thanks for your thoughts we'll be following things closely. Best, JEff PS: Very sorry you'll be out of town Sept. 10-13 -- if you can make It back for Friday morning we'd love to have you make "closing remarks" at the plenary session, around am. Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Visiting Scholar 1' ll. @JeffEisenach 202?448-9029 59 Mobile Wireless Performance in the EU and the US: Implications for Policy (*) Erik BOHLIN Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden Kevin W. CAVES Economists Incorporated, Washington D.C., USA Jeffrey A. EISENACH NERA Economic Consulting; George Mason University Law School, Arlington, VA, USA Abstract: As recently as five years ago, markets for mobile wireless services in Europe were performing on par with, or even better than, markets in the United States. Today, there is broad agreement that the EU has fallen behind in at least some dimensions, especially with respect to the deployment of next generation LTE networks. We assess the divergence in performance, analyze its causes, and suggest policy changes that would improve the performance of mobile wireless markets going forward. These include regulatory harmonization of spectrum management, achieving efficient levels of consolidation, and promoting investment and innovation through a focus on dynamic competition. Key words: spectrum management, performance, ecosystem, dynamic competition, wireless markets. ęå here is broad agreement that the EU is lagging well behind the U.S. in deployment of next generation wireless infrastructures (see e.g. KROES, 2013a; GENACHOWSKI, 2012). 1 This paper evaluates the divergence in performance, analyzes its causes, and suggests (*)) The authors are g grateful to GSMA for financial support pp and to Phillip p Mantyh y for research assistance. The views expressed are their own, as is responsibility for any errors or omissions. 1 "Once, Europe led the world in wireless communication: now we have fallen behind. Europe needs to regain that lead." (KROES, 2013a); "The U.S. has regained global leadership, particularly in mobile. The U.S. leads the world in 3G subscribers by a wide margin, and we are leading the world in deploying 4G mobile broadband at scale." (GENACHOWSKI, 2012). st Digiworld Economic Journal, no. 93, 1 Q. 2014, p. 35. www.comstrat.org 60 st 36 No. 93, 1 Q. 2014 policy changes that would improve performance going forward. It concludes that EU regulatory policies have resulted in a fragmented market structure, which is one of the factors that prevent carriers from capturing beneficial economies of scale and scope and reduce the growth of the mobile wireless ecosystem. The reforms suggested include improving coordination and harmonization of spectrum management policies, permitting efficient levels of consolidation, and incentivizing investment to promote infrastructurebased competition. „ The diverging performance of EU and U.S. mobile wireless markets Prices and output Data on prices and output shows that, on average, consumers in the EU pay less per month for mobile wireless services than consumers in the U.S.. 2012 average revenue per user (ARPU) in the U.S. is higher than in any EU country: $69 per month compared with an EU average of $38. While EU consumers pay less per month, U.S. consumers use mobile services more intensely, spending more time on the phone and downloading more data than in the EU. As shown in Figure 1, U.S. consumers use 901 voice minutes per month, more than five times the European average of 170 minutes. Similarly, CISCO (2013) reports that mobile wireless data use per connection in the U.S. is significantly higher than in the EU and projects U.S. customers will use more than twice as much data per connection as customers in the EU in 2013. Thus, while U.S. consumers pay more per month than those in the EU, they pay less per unit of usage. For example, MERRILL LYNCH (2012) reports that average revenue per minute of voice usage in the U.S. is far lower than in any European country, and less than a third of the European average. 61 Erik BOHLIN, Kevin W. CAVES & Jeffrey A. EISENACH 37 Figure 1 – Voice minutes of use per subscriber (2012) Source: Merrill Lynch Global Wireless Matrix 4Q12 (hereafter, "Global Wireless Matrix") Both U.S. and EU consumers have experienced a long-run secular decline in revenue per connection. Average revenue per connection (ARPC) in the EU has fallen by 45 percent since 2000, from over $40 per month to just over $22 per month at the end of 2012, while ARPC in the U.S. fell by 18 percent, to $45, over the same period. However, U.S. consumers tend to connect more devices to the network per subscription than in the EU. As a result, as shown in Figure 2, ARPU in the U.S. is actually increasing, while revenue per subscriber in the EU continues to decline. The divergence between EU and U.S. performance in recent years is likely explained in part by the more rapid expansion of the mobile wireless ecosystem in the U.S., spurred by the more rapid and extensive deployment of LTE. The widening of the gap between U.S. and EU ARPU (beginning in 2010) coincided with introduction of the first 3G enabled iPad and with the initial deployments of LTE networks (primarily in the U.S.). Analysts note that in the U.S. especially, "continued traffic growth from additional usage and multiple devices is encouraging users towards more expensive plans, which Internet Communication 5 Technology Co ntrihuto rs Net neutrality forecast: Clear tomorrow, stormy weather ahead hstetTrey Eisenach January 29 2014 6:00 am Sir/"1 Dy Ettlterste?: tags: FCC. net neutrality. Wheeler 4: 6+1 a 3 ta er Since it was commercialized and privatized by the Clinton Administration in the mid-1990s, the Internet has operated with a minimum of government involvement. Apart from the occasional antitrust suit (Microsoft comes particularly to mind). technology companies have been left largely free to invest. innovate and develop new business models. Even in the traditionally regulated telecommunications sector. the legacy regulator the Federal Communications Commission has. until recently. taken a hands of? approach to broadband services. The results have been nothing short of amazing. More than 2.4 billion people use the Internet worldwide. and the number is growing nearly 10 percent annually. The U.S. which has taken the most market-oriented approach of any country dominates the information technology market. with eight of the top ten Internet destinations (including Apple Facebook and Google) and the worlds best Internet infrastructure. especially for mobile' More than half of the world's 46 subscribers live in the US. The Internet, in other words. is a free market success story and the US. istne star. All that success ultimately wasn't enough. however. to keep the FCC from seeking to extend its regulatory reach from the old legacy telephone networks onto the Internet. Starting a decade ago. the Commission began considering "net neutrality" rules that would impose 20th Century style common-carrier regulations on broadband ISPs. Adopted in 2010. the rules go far beyond broadband. effectiver limiting the ability of content and application providers to compete against each other by partnering with to deliverfaster. better Internet connections On January 14. the DC Circuit handed down a decision in ?v'erizon's lawsuit challenging the rules I said immediately following its release. the decision has both short and long-term implications for the future of internet regulation. In the short run. the court overturned the FCC's prohibition on ?discriminatory? tread "customized"] Internet service contracts between on the one hand. and content and application providers on the other. In so doing. the Court reset the regulatory bar back to the largely unregulated pre-Zoto status quo. For those who believe the Internet works best without undue regulatory interference. that's great news. But there was also a dark side to the court's decision. While ruling that the Commission does not have authority to pursue the specific regulatory approach it adopted in 2010. the court seemed suggest an alternative legal approach which. if adopted by the Commission in the future. would likely pass legal muster "Just do it this way." the court seemed to say. "and the Internet is yours to regulate however you want." Needless to say. net neutrality advocates are chomping at the bit. They may not get their way. The FCC's level-headed Chairman Tom Wheeler. wasted no time issuing a comment? in the form of a blog posted on the Commission's web site declaring that while the court decided that FCC has the authority to regulate broadband networks. he has a "strong preference" for doing so in a "common law fashion taking account of and learning from the particular facts" of each case He "it is important." he said that regulation not "prohibit or inhibit conduct that is efficiency producing and competition enhancing." That doesn't sound like a recipe for re-imposing the sorts of sweeping regulationsthe courtjust overturned. Chairman Wheeler's comments suggest an FCC takeover of the Internet in the short run is pretty unlikely. But while chairmen come and go. statutory authority is forever. For those who value internet freedom. the expansive authority apparently granted to the FCC by the DC Circuit's decision will hang as a dark cloud on the horizon for a long time to come. TechPolicyDaily.com 62 The voice of American 4 Enterprise Institute's Center ?for Internet, Communications. and Technology Policy Sign UP for Delhi U?es Full name John Doe Email address john@doe.c om Get Daily Updates Publications 8r Events Research: Beyond net neutrality: Policies for leadership in the information. computing, and network industries Jone 14.20161115am Research: An American Strategy for Cyberspace: Advancing Freedom. Security. and Prosperity 1d. 30m" 5:30 arr? Op-Ed: Net Neutrality Court Decision Is The Best And Worst Outcome For FCC Jone 14.20.46 2:58pm Event: An American Strategy for Cyberspace: Advancing Freedom. Security. and Prosperity June 14. 20th" 9:00 am Publication: Center for Internet. Communications. and Technology Policy: Selected Articles on vaerstratedy Op-ed: Europe's cyber "right to be forgotten" June .7 20.46 11:21 am T02 Stories Hacker who aided IS faces term BBC News 16 Uber Rival's $28 Billion Valuation Shows Size of China's Ride-Sharing Market The New York Times. Ju-?re Internet ruling could hitVterizon and Yahoo pursuit Reuters. June .45 Senators launch new cybersecurity caucus Fedscocp, June 15 Lone wolf claims responsibility for DNC hack. dumps purported Trump smear We Are Tecmrica. June .45 Samsung to acquire U.S. cloud services firm .Joyent Compute-Merv. June .46 More Top Stories Follow Tweets -- @AEltecn 45; TechPolicy Da ily.c om ucu f. Today's post: 2 New Zealand tech giants are in mergertalls. How will regulators respond? [iiti As; TechPoticyDaily.com Today's blog: What happens?when contentproviders and networl. Recomde Us Archives June 2016 63 Internet Communications Technology Contributors The Center The nature of wireless competition by: Jeffrey Eisenach Follow @JeffEisenach January 6, 2014 6:00 am COMMUNICATIONS Search... The voice of American Enterprise Institute's Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy Sign up for Daily Updates Full name John Doe Email address john@doe.com Get Daily Updates Sign up Publications & Events Celltower by Shutterstock tags: competition, wireless I was in Ottawa, Canada, recently speaking at an International Institute of Communications conference where much of the discussion was focused on the government’s populist campaign against the Canadian mobile wireless industry. Incredibly, the government is running television ads – at taxpayer expense – attacking Canadian carriers for high prices and poor service. The ads would be tough to justify even if they were true, but in reality Canadians get more value for their mobile wireless dollars than anywhere in the world, with the possible exception of the U.S. After the speech, I paid a visit to the offices of the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC), whose role roughly parallels that of our Federal Communications Commission. There, I met with a dozen or so professional staff to discuss the state of competition in the Canadian wireless market and proposals the CRTC is considering (at the behest of the government) to expand mobile roaming regulation. The specifics of that conversation were “off the record,” and I’ll leave them that way. I will share one aspect of our discussion that had nothing to do with Canada specifically, but rather went to the nature of competition in wireless markets and the arguments for and against sharing requirements. Specifically, someone asked, under what circumstances does it make sense to build out multiple infrastructures, especially in sparsely populated areas, when one network could do the job? Why not share? It’s a perennial question, and a tough one. Natural monopolies do exist, and Research: Beyond net neutrality: Policies for leadership in the information, computing, and network industries June 14, 2016 11:15 am Research: An American Strategy for Cyberspace: Advancing Freedom, Security, and Prosperity June 14, 2016 5:30 am Op-Ed: Net Neutrality Court Decision Is The Best And Worst Outcome For FCC June 14, 2016 2:58 pm Event: An American Strategy for Cyberspace: Advancing Freedom, Security, and Prosperity June 14, 2016 9:00 am Publication: Center for Internet, Communications, and Technology Policy: Selected Articles on Cyberstrategy June 7, 2016 4:00 pm Op-ed: Europe’s cyber “right to be forgotten” June 7, 2016 11:21 am Top Stories duplication is sometimes inefficient. In those cases, some form of either public utility regulation or even public ownership may make economic sense. So why not share mobile broadband networks? In urban areas, demand is clearly sufficient to justify overlapping networks – but what about rural areas (an especially big issue in Canada)? Why not have Rogers build out one county, TELUS the next, and so on, and then let other carriers “roam” on their networks at some reasonable price? Put differently, once a carrier has built a network in such a place, how can one justify not allowing other carriers’ customers to use it – again, for some reasonable price? My response to this perfectly reasonable question was to explain how the U.S. ended up with the world’s first large-scale LTE deployment, and, today, with the most Airbnb takes its fight to court 64 The Hill, July 4 San Francisco Considers Tax on Tech Companies to Pay for Boom’s Downside The New York Times, July 4 Tech industry wants Trump agenday The Hill, July 4 China’s anti-hacking pledge put to the test The Hill, July 2 competitive 4G market anywhere. The idea for LTE originated with NTT in Japan in 2004, but Verizon Wireless (for whom I do some consulting work) was the key early adopter, announcing in 2007 that had embraced the standard, and then, in 2009, that it planned to undertake a nationwide rollout. The decision was widely and correctly seen at the time as a risky one: Naysayers argued it was an idea whose time would never come (perhaps because they thought Wi-Max, backed by Google, Intel, Clearwire, and Sprint, was a better technology) or, even if LTE was the right idea in the long run, that Verizon was pushing the envelope too far too fast. But Verizon continued to invest large amounts of both time and money in building the LTE ecosystem, getting standard setting bodies to approve the necessary standards, regulators to make available the necessary spectrum and equipment makers to design China restricts online news sites from sourcing stories on social media Ars Technica, July 4 Israel Accuses Facebook of Complicity in West Bank Violence Bloomberg, July 3 More Top Stories Follow AEITech Tweets by @AEItech and manufacture the right network equipment and handsets. In December 2010, it became the first carrier to roll out a major LTE deployment, even as some observers Recommend Us were predicting the technology wasn’t ready for prime time. As we all know now, those Archives doubts were misplaced. July 2016 Today, three years from initial deployment, Verizon’s LTE network covers roughly 90 percent of U.S. households – a point Verizon has been making in television ads that compare its LTE network coverage maps to the relatively sparse (but rapidly expanding) footprints of its competitors. This brings us back to the question of mandatory roaming and infrastructure sharing. Such regulations would do away with “map differentiation,” since all carriers would, by definition, cover the same territory. And therein lies the rub: The ability to advertise its wider LTE coverage, and by so doing attract more customers willing to pay higher prices, is the reward for the risk-taking, entrepreneurship and investment responsible for Verizon’s first-mover advantage. A binding requirement to share (and the FCC’s 2011 data roaming order comes pretty close to imposing one) would reduce if not eliminate the incentives for such behavior. My point is simply that there is more to mobile wireless competition than meets the eye. It’s not about the static efficiency gains associated with economizing on infrastructure costs in sparsely populated areas, but rather about the innovations – the new and better products and services of all sorts – that come from dynamic competition between large, complex and constantly evolving platforms and encompasses platform innovations of all sorts, such as AT&T’s successful gamble on the iPhone and T-Mobile’s recent innovations in pricing plans. Dynamic competition is one phenomenon regulators will never be able to mimic or manufacture, but we can hope that, over time, they will learn how to avoid mucking up the works. M 4 T W T F S S 1 2 3 8 5 6 7 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 « Jun Nun ii rum, From: Jeffrey Eisenach Sent: Wednesday, December 11. 2013 11:45 AM To: Mike O'Rielly Subject: Economists Letter re: Communications Competition Attachments: Economists Letter to Chairman Wheeler Final 121113.pdf Commissioner O'Rielly: Attached please find a letter that's just been sent off to Ehainnan Wheeler (and filed in half a dozen dodreis). In it, a broad based group of economists describes the current state of competition in communications markets and the Implications for some key policy issues facing the Commission. If you or your staff have questions or would like further information, please feel free to contact me or any of the authors. Sincerely, Jeff Eisenach Jeffrey a. Visiting Scholar @Je??Eisenach 202-448-9029 December 1 1, 2013 Hon. Tom Wheeler Chairman Federal Communications Commission 445 12th Street S.W. Washington, DC 20554 Re: Economic Evidence on Competition in Communications Markets and Implications for Key Policy Issues Dear Chairman Wheeler: Congratulations on your con?rmation as Chairman of the Federal Communications Commission. As economists who study and write about communications policy and regulation,I we agree with your comment during your con?rmation hearing that ?the role of the FCC has evolved from acting in the absence of competition to dictate the market, to promoting and protecting competition with appropriate oversight.? The economic evidence on this point is clear: in all but a few areas, communications networks no longer have the characteristics of natural monopolies, and should no longer be regulated as public utilities. Indeed, the convergence of the communications sector into the dynamic, intensely competitive Internet ecosystem is now virtually complete. We write because we believe these economic facts have important implications for some of the key challenges facing you and the Commission in the months and years ahead.2 To begin, the emergence of robust competition does not obviate the need for consumer-welfare- focused, economically-informed antitrust oversight where residual monopoly power remains. Further, in areas such as consumer protection, public safety, spectrum management, and universal service, government involvement whether by the Commission or by other appropriate state or Federal agencies will continue to be appropriate. Even in these areas, however, economic analysis and market-based approaches can lead to better policy outcomes. The question, in other words, is not whether there is a role for government, but what speci?c policies should be pursued to maximize consumer welfare now and in the future. This letter addresses this question in three parts. First, we summarize the economic evidence with respect to the overall competitiveness and performance of the communications sector. Next, we discuss the implications of the current competitive landscape for three major areas of policy: regulation of IP networks and interconnection; vertical issues, including net None of us have been compensated by any client for participating in this effort. 2 Each of us shares the overall views and primary conclusions expressed herein, though as individuals we each reserve the right to use different wording or characterize particular points differently and, of course, to change our opinions on the basis of new facts which may present themselves in the future. 72 neutrality; and spectrum policy. Third, we offer a few broader observations about the importance of allowing markets to supplant regulation in de?ning the future of the communications sector.3 References to a sampling of studies that provide empirical support for the conclusions below are attached. The Communications Sector ls Vigorouslv Competitive In August 1999, Chairman William Kennard released a Draft Strategic Plunfar a New CC for the Century. Its ?rst sentence reads as follows: ?In five years, we expect U.S communications markets to be characterized predominately by vigorous competition that will greatly reduce the need for direct regulation.? The economic evidence that communications markets are now ?vigorously competitive? is incontrovertible. The vast majority of Americans have access to multiple high speed broadband providers, multiple sources of digital video, and multiple providers of mobile wireless services. Communications firms have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in wireline and wireless networks (satellite as well as terrestrial), resulting in dramatic improvements in the capacities and capabilities of America?s communications networks. American wireless networks are unarguably the most advanced in the world, and more than 85 percent of U.S. households are passed by wireline networks capable of download speeds in excess of 100 Mbps. Competition in all of these markets is dynamic and intense. In many areas of the United States, less than one third of all households are still connected to the traditional wireline telephone infrastructure the ?natural monopoly? the FCC was created to regulate.4 Three of out of four households, on the other hand, have broadband Internet connections, which have been virtually exempt, up until new, from economic regulation. Most importantly, the communications sector has new converged so thoroughly with the rest of the lntemet ecosystem that it has become dif?cult to draw clear boundaries. Where does a content delivery network stop and the ?telecommunications infrastructure? begin? What is a ?telecommunications service? in a world in which more traf?c travels over Skype and FaceTime than over the Public Switched Telephone Network? How much monopoly power does a wireless carrier have in a world in which consumers? choices are driven at least as much by devices, operating systems and applications ecosystems as by coverage and pricing plans? None of the markets that make up the Internet ecosystem ?ts the model of atomized, commoditized ?perfect competition? described in introductory economics textbooks but all of them, communications no less than the others, are ?vigorously competitive.? 3To ensure compliance with the Commission?s rules, we are ?ling this letter as an ex parte comment in the following proceedings: WC Docket No. 12-263; WC Docket No. 12~269; GN Docket No. 09-191; WC Docket No. 07-52; GN Docket No. 10-127; and, GN Docket No 12?353. 4 For example, reports that fewer than 15 percent of homes in Florida and Michigan are still connected to the Verizon reports that only about one million {out of 17 million) homes in its footprint are connected to copper. We acknowledge that there are pockets of the country where residents have limited choices in wireline broadband networks capable of achieving speeds in excess of 6 Mbps. But with the coming advances in wireless and satellite broadband services, the opportunity for any targeted exercise of market power is remote. Rather than regulating carriers who have deployed high-speed networks in those areas, a better approach is to create a regulatory climate in which entrants are encouraged to expand their networks. 73 POTS-style Interconnection Regulation Should Not Be Imposed on IP Networks One serious threat to continued innovation and dynamism in the communications sector is the potential for public-utility style regulation to be imposed on IP networks in the form of mandatory interconnection requirements. Economic theory predicts that the incentive issues associated with interconnection among traditional telephone networks are unlikely to be present in IP-based networks, and these theoretical predictions are supported by two decades of empirical evidence: Since its inception in the 19903, the modern commercial Internet has functioned remarkably well without mandatory interconnection requirements. There are virtually no signi?cant instances of traf?c being blocked or delayed as a result of failures to interconnect. At least equally important, the peering and transit regime has responded to changing market and technological conditions through continuous, transformational change. The success of the lnternet?s voluntary interconnection regime stands in stark contrast to the distortionary, in?exible regulatory regimes that have governed interconnection in the POTS world. Simply put, regulators lack the information necessary to set ef?cient interconnection prices and the ?exibility to adjust them in the face of changing market conditions, leading to inef?cient market structures, misallocated investment, arbitrage schemes, and regulatory gamesmanship. Allowing even ?weak form? interconnection mandates to spill over onto the Internet would distort market outcomes and limit innovation. Moreover, since the Internet is global in scope and scale, any interconnection mandate imposed by the U.S. would invite involvement by international regulators, many of whom would surely welcome U.S. support for the principle of regulating interconnection of networks. In summary, both economic theory and a large body of real-world experience demonstrate that the potential costs of prophylactic imposition of mandatory IP interconnection are very high, while the bene?ts likely are non?existent. Vertical Practices Should Be Addressed on a Case-bv-Case Basis The Open Internet Order applies an ex ante approach to the regulation of vertical conduct by effectively prohibiting priority delivery arrangements. A better approach would be to permit new forms of contracting, and to police any abuses after the fact. High tech industries, including those that make up the Internet ecosystem, have several characteristics -- including high rates of investment and large ?xed costs, product differentiation, network effects, multi-sidedness and strong complementarities which tend to make economic analysis of particular business practices highly fact dependent: The effects of a particular practice are intrinsically dependent on the circumstances of the market at issue. Moreover, because market circumstances in the IT sector are constantly evolving, even conduct 74 that is harmful at one point may, a few years or even months later, be ef?ciency-enhancing and pro-competitive. The upshot of these economic realities is that ex ante regulation of vertical conduct blanket prohibitions on certain types of business practices necessarily will yield a high incidence of Type II error: The well-intentioned but counterproductive prohibition of conduct that is actually welfare-enhancing. Accordingly, such regulations including the Open Internet Order are very likely to generate greater costs than bene?ts. The economic evidence is clear: Vertical practices, whether in the broadband space or in other areas access to content and programming) should be policed on a case-by-case basis, not through prescriptive regulations or categorical bans on particular forms of conduct.5 Indeed, the Commission has correctly tolerated vertical integration and market-based contracting in the cable television industry, recognizing that the ef?ciencies ounveigh the costs relating to potential discriminatory acts, which can be mitigated with expost review of any claimed abuses. The same types of tradeoffs are at issue for the Internet. While we recognize that the Open Internet Order is before the courts, we hope you will take these considerations into account in thinking about how, if it is upheld, the Order is enforced or, if it is not, how best to proceed. The Commission Should Continue to Expand the Role of Markets in Allocating Spectrum A dozen years ago, a group of 37 ?concerned economists? (including some of us) submitted a ?ling in the Commission?s secondary markets proceeding urging the Commission ?to adopt market-oriented rules opening the radio spectrum and capturing its full potential for society.?5 We continue to support the expansion of market-based mechanisms for the allocation and reallocation of spectrum and urge the Commission to redouble its efforts in this regard. The market-oriented spectrum policy reforms adopted by the Commission over the course of the past two decades have generated enormous bene?ts for consumers, and are one of the main reasons the U.S. now has the world?s most advanced mobile wireless services. Market-based spectrum allocation has allowed spectrum to ?ow away from inef?cient uses to more highly valued ones and thus made possible the explosive growth of mobile broadband. While not all of us felt that the incentive auction mechanism was the best or only choice for reallocating spectrum from broadcasting to mobile broadband, we all support the principle (embodied in the incentive auction mechanism) of voluntary exchange leading to ef?cient reallocation, and we all agree with the goal of transferring spectrum from the in?exible broadcast licensing regime to the far more ?exible, secondary-market?friendly regime that governs mobile broadband. We urge you to make the success of the incentive auction a top priority. 5 See Comments ofJerty Brita et ai, Net Neutrality: The Economic Evidence, tn the Matter of Preserving the Open inter-net (GN Docket 09-191; April 10, 2010) (available at 1753}. 5 See Comments of3? Concerned Economists, tn the Matter of Promoting Efficient use ofSpeetrum Through Etimtnation oanrriers to the Devetapment of Secondary Markets Docket 00-230, February 7, 2001) {available at 1 2460886}. 75 In that context, it has been suggested that the auction be used to try to affect the structure of the mobile wireless market, either by restricting participation by some ?rms or by providing arti?cial advantages to others. We do not believe the Commission can, through economic analysis or otherwise, accurately predict the most efficient structure of the market for mobile wireless services (which may depend, for example, on the extent to which the wireless and wireline broadband markets converge); and we note that the use of eligibility restrictions and similar rules in prior auctions has resulted in delays and market distortions. By imposing such restrictions, prior auction policy has presumed that ?more carriers are always better,? despite the growing importance of economies of scale in providing wireless networks and the growing demands on wireless networks from bandwidth-intensive applications. Economic research has shown such restrictions can be harmful, and the Commission should refrain from imposing such rules in the incentive auction. More generally, we reiterate the advice proffered by our 37 colleagues more than a decade ago: The Commission should ?seek not to create secondary markets directly but instead to institute rules permitting such markets to emerge,? ?relax? restrictions on the use of radio spectrum by both current licensees and new entrants,? and ?eliminate all wireless license requirements unrelated to interference or anti-competitive concentration.? The Internet Should Not Become a ?Regulated Industrv? In closing, we return to a theme introduced above - the convergence of the communications sector with the Internet ecosystem. As a veteran of the telecommunications policy arena, you know more than most about the political economy of regulation: the pressures brought by various interest groups to use regulatory means to achieve private ends; the bias thereby created in favor of regulatory expansion; the inherent cumbersomeness of the regulatory process; the inertia and in?exibility of regulations once put in place. In the mid-1990s, the Clinton Administration elected to privatize the operation and governance of the Internet and to refrain from imposing industry specific regulation on broadband. These choices. combined with a series of decisions by the Commission over the course of many years the three Computer Inquiries, the Broadband Over Cable Order) have allowed the evolution of the Internet ecosystem to be guided largely by market forces. Very few economists new challenge the wisdom of this course, or question the tremendous bene?ts it has created in economic terms and for the larger public interest. The choices now before the Commission, including but by no means limited to the issues discussed above, will determine whether the internet continues to be guided by market forces or, alternatively, whether the results of free interaction between consumers and producers will be supplanted by the preferences of regulators, using a regulatory system designed for a different industry in a different time. From an economic perspective, the costs of ailowing the interact to be transformed into a ?regulated industry? would be tremendous. 76 77 We appreciate your attention to these thoughts, and wish you every success in your tenure as Chairman. Respectfully, Robert D. Atkinson Information Technology and Innovation Fndn. Kevin W. Caves Navigant Economies Robert W. Crandall Brookings Institution Wayne Crews Competitive Enterprise Institute Everett Ehrlich ESC inc. Jeffrey A. Eisenach American Enterprise Institute Gerald Faulhaber Wharton School, University of c: Hon. Mignon Clyburn Hon. Michael O?Rielly Hon. Aj it Pai Hen. Jessica Rosenworcel Af?liations listed for identi?cation purposes only. Robert W. Hahn University of Oxford Kevin A. Hassett American Enterprise Institute Steve Pociask American Consumer Institute Ha] J. Singer Navigant Economics Timothy J. Tardiff Advanced Analytical Consulting Group Leonard Waverman Berkeley Research Group Dennis L. Weisman Kansas State University 78 ATTACHMENT Selected Academic References K. Caves, ?Quanti?dng Price?Driven Wireless Substitution in Telephony,? Telecommunications Policy 35 (2011) R. Crandall, J. Eisenach and A. Ingraham ?The Long-Run Effects of Copper-Loop Unbundling and the Implications for Fiber,? Telecommunications Policy 37 (2013) E. Ehrlich, J. Eisenach and W. Leighton, ?The Impact of Regulation on Innovation and Choice in Wireless Communications," Review ofNetworlt Economics (2010) J. Bisenach, Theories of Broadband Competition (American Enterprise Institute, 2012) J. Eisenach and H. Singer, ?Avoiding Rent-Seeking in Secondary Market Spectrum Transactions,? Federal Communications Law Journal 65;3 (2013) G. Faulhaber, R. Hahn and H. Singer, ?Assessing Competition in U.S. Wireless Markets: Review of the FCC's Competition Reports,? (with) Fed Communications Law Journal 64 (2012) G. Faulhaber and DJ. Farber, ?Innovation in the Wireless Ecosystem: A Customer?Centric Framework,? international Journal of Communications 4 (2010) Thomas W. Hazlett and Dennis L. Weisman, ?Market Power in U.S. Broadband Services.? Review of Industrial Organization, 38:2 (2011) R. Litan and H. Singer, The Need for Speed: A New Framework for Telecommunications Policy for the 215! Century (Brookings Press, 2013) Glen 0. Robinson and Dennis L. Weisman, ?Designing Competition Policy for Telecommunications.? The Review of Network Economics, 7:4 (2008) Timothy J. Tardiff, ?Reregulation or Better Deregulation?: Economic Evaluation of Recent FCC Competition Actions,? Presented at the Advanced Workshop in Regulation and Competition, 32nd Annual Eastern Conference (May l6, 2013) Dennis L. Weisman, ?Principled? Approach to the Design of Telecommunications Policy.? Journal ofCompetiton Law Economics, 6:4 (2010) 79 Avoiding Rent-Seeking in Secondary Market Spectrum Transactions Jeffrey A. Eisenach Hal J. Singer† TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................... 262 II. SECONDARY MARKETS AND EFFICIENT SPECTRUM USE ............... 265 A. Rent-Seeking and the Case Against Administrative Allocation 265 B. The Emergence of Market-Based Mechanisms for Spectrum Reallocation .............................................................. 267 C. Secondary Markets in Practice................................................. 271 III. A CASE STUDY: RENT-SEEKING BEHAVIOR IN THE VERIZON WIRELESS - SPECTRUMCO PROCEEDING ........................ 280 A. The Competitors ....................................................................... 282 B. The Ideological Opponents ....................................................... 285 C. The Aftermath ........................................................................... 288 IV. THE COSTS OF RENT-SEEKING AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR REFORM ................................................................................... 289 A. The Costs of Rent-Seeking in Secondary Spectrum Markets .... 290 B. Proposals for Reform................................................................ 294 V. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................. 296 Jeffreyy A. Eisenach is a Managing g g Director at Navigant g Economics LLC, a Visiting g Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and an Adjunct Professor at George Mason University Law School. † Hal J. Singer is a Managing Director at Navigant g Economics LLC. Although g authors were engaged by Verizon in relation to the SpectrumCo transaction, the views expressed here are exclusively their own and are not informed by any confidential information from the transaction. They are grateful to Kevin W. Caves, Anna Koyfman, and Chris Holt for research assistance. - 261 - 80 262 FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS LAW JOURNAL Vol. 65 I. INTRODUCTION The power to allocate spectrum to specific uses and assign licenses to specific users is the power to distribute wealth.1 Recipients of desirable spectrum assignments, sometimes from the Federal Communications Commission (“FCC” or the “Commission”) and sometimes directly from Congress, have benefited handsomely over the years, and it is widely recognized that millions, if not billions, of dollars have been spent on rentseeking—that is, on lobbying and similar activities designed to secure advantageous outcomes in spectrum allocation decisions.2 Such is the nature of government-administered markets. Beginning in the late 1950s, academics and, eventually, policymakers recognized that spectrum would more likely be put to its highest value use if it was allocated by markets rather than politicians and civil servants.3 The spectrum reform consensus that developed over the course of the next five decades called for the creation of flexible usage rights that allow spectrum to be used for any (legal and non-interfering) purpose, the use of auctions to assign licenses to initial licensees, and the development of secondary markets to allow users to exchange spectrum freely.4 In the early 1990s, these recommendations began to be adopted as policy, starting with the use of auctions to distribute newly released spectrum into the market and, later, with the development of secondary markets.5 The emergence of a secondary market for spectrum has resulted in billions of dollars in trades and likely improved consumer welfare significantly, relative to the alternative of continued, command-and-control style regulation.6 1. In the parlance of spectrum policy, spectrum is “allocated” to a use and “assigned” to a user. For example, certain bands are “allocated” for mobile communications services, and the right to use those bands is then “assigned” (in the form of licenses) to specific users. We will sometimes use the term “allocate” to refer to both steps, and similarly will use “reallocate” to refer to the process of both repurposing spectrum (from one use to another) and to transferring usage rights among licensees. 2. See Anne O. Krueger, The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society, 64 AM. ECON. REV. 291, 291-93 (1974) (explaining that because of quantitative restrictions on spectrum allocation, rent-seeking is competitive and can generate large licensing fees). 3. See EVAN KWEREL & WALT STRACK, FCC, AUCTIONING SPECTRUM RIGHTS 2 (2001), available at http://wireless.fcc.gov/auctions/data/papersAndStudies/aucspec.pdf (“An economically efficient licensing mechanism would assign licenses to parties that value them most highly, minimize wasteful private expenditures to obtain spectrum, foster (economically) efficient spectrum use and increase competition with existing spectrumbased services with minimum delay and cost to the government.”). 4. Promoting Efficient Use of Spectrum Through Elimination of Barriers to the Dev. of Secondary Mkts., Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, FCC 00-402, paras. 2-3 (2000) [hereinafter 2000 NPRM], available at http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/ FCC-00-402A1.pdf. 5. Id. at para. 2. 6. Id. 81 Issue 3 RENT-SEEKING IN SECONDARY MARKETS 263 The emergence of a robust secondary market for the spectrum used for mobile voice and, more recently, mobile broadband is perhaps the single biggest success story of the spectrum reform movement.7 Commercial Mobile Radio Service (“CMRS”) licenses provide for a substantial degree of flexibility, allowing licensees to use technologies (e.g., CDMA, GSM, Wi-Max, LTE) and offer services (e.g., text messages, voice, web browsing, mobile video) of their choice in the geographic and frequency range they desire.8 Thus, to cite a prominent example from 2011, Qualcomm was able to sell spectrum it had been using to provide commercially unsuccessful mobile television service to AT&T, which will use it for two-way mobile voice and data, thereby helping to alleviate the “spectrum crunch” that has come about as a result of the emergence of smart phones and mobile data services.9 In addition to flexible rights, the success of secondary markets depends on the ability of market participants to engage in transactions quickly, at relatively low cost, and with a reasonable degree of certainty.10 Under FCC rules adopted in the mid-2000s, most secondary market transactions were granted “fast track” treatment, resulting in a significant reduction in the time required to obtain approval.11 Many transactions involving CMRS spectrum, however, remain subject to “special” public notice and comment procedures, including those in which a current licensee has foreign ownership or seeks to acquire additional, overlapping spectrum. This practice arguably serves as a de facto invitation for the sorts of rentseeking behavior that plagued the old “command and control” system.12 Pursuant to section 310(d) of the Communications Act of 1934 and FCC rules, an acquiring firm must file applications for assignment of licenses with the Commission, asking for permission to consummate the transaction.13 Typically, opposition parties (including competitors, trade 7. John W. Mayo & Scott Wallsten, Enabling Efficient Wireless Communication: The Role of Secondary Spectrum Markets, 22 INFO. ECON. & POL’Y 61, 62 (2010). 8. Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Spectrum Reallocation and the National Broadband Plan, 64 FED. COMM. L.J. 87, 123 (2011). The specific spectrum bands subject to flexibility and eligible for secondary market rules have varied over time. Unless otherwise noted, we refer to licenses for spectrum used for mobile radio service and subject to flexibility and trading as “CMRS” licenses. 9. App’n of AT&T Inc. & Qualcomm Inc. for Consent to Assign Licenses & Authorizations, Order, FCC 11-188, paras. 4-5 (2011), available at http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-11-188A1.pdf. 10. Eisenach, supra note 8, at 119-23. 11. Mayo & Wallsten, supra note 7, at 64. 12. Id. 13. 47 U.S.C. § 310(d) (2012); see, e.g., 47 C.F.R. §§ 1.2111, 73.3597 (2012); App’n of Cellco P’ship d/b/a Verizon Wireless & SpectrumCo LLC for Consent to Assign Licenses, WT Docket No. 12-4 (filed Dec. 16, 2011) (seeking consent to assign 122 Advanced Wireless Services licenses to Verizon Wireless from SpectrumCo); see also App’n of Cellco P’ship d/b/a Verizon Wireless & Cox TMI Wireless, LLC for Consent to Assign Licenses, WT Docket No. 12-4 (filed Dec. 21, 2011) (seeking consent to assign thirty Advanced Wireless Services licenses to Verizon Wireless from Cox Wireless). 82 Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington, D.C. 20554 In the Matter of Special Access for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers; WC Docket No. 05-25 AT&T Corporation Petition for Rulemaking To Reform Regulation of Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier Rates for Interstate Special Access Services RM-10593 DECLARATION OF KEVIN W. CAVES AND JEFFREY A. EISENACH March 12, 2013 83 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY..............................................................................1 II. QUALIFICATIONS ..........................................................................................................3 III. THE EXISTING ECONOMIC EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT INCREASED REGULATION..........................................................................................4 A. B. C. D. IV. A. B. C. V. Market Concentration Evidence Does Not Demonstrate Lack of Competition ............... 5 Evidence on Market Entry Does Not Demonstrate Lack of Competition ........................ 9 Pricing Data Does Not Demonstrate Lack of Competition ............................................ 12 Evidence on Rates of Return Does Not Demonstrate Lack of Competition .................. 13 VERIZON’S VOLUNTARY DISCOUNT PLANS ARE PRESUMPTIVELY EFFICIENCY-MOTIVATED, NOT ANTICOMPETITIVE......................................14 Verizon’s Voluntary Discounts Facilitate Economic Efficiency ................................... 16 Verizon’s Voluntary Discounts Do Not Require Large Share Commitments ............... 20 The Market Power Required by Economic Theory Does Not Exist .............................. 24 THE COMMISSION SHOULD NOT REGULATE BEFORE COMPLETING ITS DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS ..............................................................25 A. B. VI. The Data and Analysis Now Underway Can Provide Important Insight into the Competitive Dynamics of High-Capacity Markets ........................................................ 25 Premature Regulation would be Costly and Difficult to Reverse .................................. 26 CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................................28 84 I. 1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY We have been asked by Verizon1 to provide our opinion with respect to certain economic issues raised in comments submitted in response to the Commission’s FNPRM.2 In preparing this declaration, we have reviewed selected comments and declarations filed in response to the FNPRM as well as previous filings in these proceedings. Materials relied upon are referenced specifically below. 2. Our declaration focuses on the competitive dynamics of markets for high capacity and special access services, the proposals from some commenters, including Level 3 and tw telecom, to proscribe certain terms and conditions under which special access services are offered by incumbent providers, and the potential for the Commission’s data collection and econometric modeling efforts to enhance the Commission’s understanding of the state of competition. For ease of exposition, we sometimes refer to those advocating pre-emptive regulation as “regulation advocates.” 3. We reach three primary conclusions. First, the available evidence strongly indicates that the market for high capacity services is competitive and becoming more so. The regulation advocates’ arguments, which rely primarily if not exclusively on simplistic measures of market structure, do not demonstrate either that traditional market power (the power to raise and sustain prices significantly above competitive levels) or exclusionary market power (the 1 In addition to Verizon Wireless, the Verizon companies participating in this filing are the regulated, wholly owned subsidiaries of Verizon Communications Inc. (collectively, “Verizon”). 2 In the Matter of Special Access Rates for Price Cap Local Exchange Carriers AT&T Corporation Petition for Rulemaking to Reform Regulation of Incumbent Local Exchange Carrier Rates for Interstate Special Access Services, Report and Order and Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, WC Docket No. 05-25 & RM-10593, FCC 12-153 (Dec. 18, 2012) (hereafter FNPRM). 85 Telecommunications Policy 37 (2013) 262–281 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Telecommunications Policy URL: www.elsevier.com/locate/telpol The long-run effects of copper-loop unbundling and the implications for fiber Robert W. Crandall a,b, Jeffrey A. Eisenach b,c,n, Allan T. Ingraham b a Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC 20036, USA Navigant Economics LLC, 1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 850, Washington, DC 20036, USA c George Mason University Law School, 3301 Fairfax Drive, Arlington, VA 22201, USA b article info abstract Available online 15 March 2013 Policies mandating unbundling of copper telecommunications networks have now been in place for more than 15 years, and it is thus becoming possible to study their long-run effects. This paper reviews the existing evidence on the effects of copper unbundling, and presents new empirical results based on regression analyses of broadband penetration in OECD countries from 2001 to 2010. The results show that the long-run effect of copper unbundling on household broadband penetration rates is negative, a finding which is consistent with previous research, including with research suggesting that copper unbundling has slowed the deployment of FTTP infrastructures, especially in Europe. Based on an analysis of the similarities and differences between the unbundling of copper networks and fiber networks, the paper concludes that mandated unbundling of fiber networks would likely deter deployment of Next Generation Access networks (NGAs). & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Broadband Copper Fiber NGA Unbundling 1. Introduction It has now been more than 15 years since Hong Kong imposed the first network unbundling requirement on an incumbent telephone company.1 Since then, unbundling of copper-based networks has become a staple of telecommunications regulatory policy throughout much of the developed world. Unbundling played a central role in U.S. telecom policy for several years, beginning with the Telecommunications Act of 1996. Europe followed suit in 1998,2 and while implementation was phased in over time, nearly all European states now have some form of copper unbundling requirement. Similarly, unbundling has been adopted – albeit in different forms and flavors – in most developed Pacific Rim countries, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea. With the deployment of fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) infrastructures, regulators are now considering whether to extend unbundling regulations to these new next generation access (NGA) fiber-optic networks, and if so, how. A few nations have already adopted fiber unbundling rules, the issue is now front and center in Europe and Asia, and it has even become a topic of discussion in the U.S., which decided in 2003 not to require fiber unbundling.3 n Corresponding author at: Navigant Economics, 1200 19th Street, NW, Suite 850, Washington, DC 20036 USA. Tel.: þ1 202 448 9029; fax: þ1 202 973 2401. E-mail addresses: rcrandall@brookings.edu (R.W. Crandall), jeff.eisenach@naviganteconomics.com (J.A. Eisenach), allan.ingraham@naviganteconomics.com (A.T. Ingraham). 1 See Office of the Telecommunications Authority, Hong Kong Government (1995). 2 See European Commission (1998, 2000). As discussed below, a few European states had adopted unbundling requirements prior to the EC’s adoption of unbundling as an EU-wide policy. 3 See Federal Communications Commission (2003). 0308-5961/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.telpol.2012.08.002 86 R.W. Crandall et al. / Telecommunications Policy 37 (2013) 262–281 263 The premise in this paper is that fifteen years of experience with copper unbundling can and should inform the debate over whether to unbundle fiber. The conclusions are, first, that the available empirical evidence shows that copper unbundling has likely reduced, and certainly has not improved, consumer welfare; and, second, that to the extent the issues associated with fiber unbundling differ from those associated with copper, the differences weigh against mandating fiber unbundling. The first section below discusses the theoretical basis for mandatory unbundling, describes some of the implementation issues regulators have confronted in adopting and enforcing unbundling regulations, and advances a four-part framework for assessing implementation issues associated with unbundling. It also explains the theoretical basis for the hypothesis that unbundling might increase broadband penetration in the short run (by lowering retail prices) but reduce it in the longer-run (by deterring investment). The following section briefly reviews the literature on the effects of copper unbundling, and then summarizes new empirical results derived from OECD panel data over a ten-year period (from 2001 to 2010). The quantitative evidence is most consistent with the hypothesis that unbundling has had little or no effect on broadband penetration in the short run, but has reduced penetration in the long run. The last section of the paper explains why unbundling of fiber networks is likely to lead to results no better than, and in all likelihood worse than, the effects of copper unbundling. First, and importantly, the copper networks that were unbundled for the most part had already been built when unbundling rules were applied, so that the effects of unbundling on investment were minimized. Second, fiber unbundling poses significant engineering and network design issues above and beyond those associated with copper which could raise costs and increase the likelihood of regulatory error. Third, the competitive benefits of unbundling are likely smaller today than when copper unbundling was first adopted due to increased intermodal competition from cable and wireless. Taken together with the evidence on copper unbundling, these factors suggest that mandatory fiber unbundling is unlikely to improve economic welfare. 2. Theories of network unbundling Throughout most of the 20th century, telecommunications services were provided by a single carrier, either owned by the government or privately owned and regulated as a public utility. By the 1970s, it became clear that competition was possible in at least some parts of the network. Competition developed first in consumer premises equipment and long-distance services, and, to a limited extent, fixed-wire local telecommunications in core areas of major cities.4 For the most part, however, competition in local fixed-wire, mass-market voice communications remained impractical in the era of plain old telephone service because of the prohibitive cost of duplicating any significant portion of the established incumbent’s copper network. By the early 1990s, technologies and markets had evolved further to the point where competition became feasible for many aspects of local communication services. Network unbundling was advanced as a means of permitting competition in the replicable portions of the network, even if particular network elements (for example, the last mile of twisted-pair copper) still could not economically be replicated. Unbundling forces owners of non-competitive network elements to grant competitors access to their monopoly facilities at regulated wholesale prices. By mandating resale, regulators seek to preserve the economies of scale or density associated with monopoly telecommunications networks, while at the same time achieving the low prices, differentiated choices and rapid innovation generated by retail competition. On the other hand, the practical challenges of implementing unbundling policies are formidable, and the potential for unintended harm is significant. There is an extensive body of literature exploring all of these issues in great detail; below is a brief summary of the major arguments. 2.1. The theoretical case for network unbundling The case for unbundling assumes, first, that some aspects of the market for telecommunications services – for example, ISP services – are potentially competitive, while others – for example, the last mile connection to individual premises – cannot economically be replicated. If the last-mile monopolist is permitted to do so, it may under certain circumstances seek to foreclose competition in the competitive aspects of the market by denying competitors access to the local loop, or by charging a prohibitive price.5 Unbundling seeks to head off such anticompetitive behavior by forcing access to the non-replicable portions of the network at efficient prices.6 The economic benefits of unbundling, if successfully implemented, fall into three broad categories. First, in the most static sense, unbundling should result in lower retail prices (relative to the prices charged by an unregulated monopolist) simply as a result of forcing the network monopolist to charge less than the monopoly price for the non-replicable portions of its network. Second, in the medium- and long-run, it is hoped that competition in the market for the replicable aspects of the service will result in lower costs (and thus prices), beneficial product differentiation, and increased innovation, while the avoidance of uneconomic network duplication reduces total costs. Third, assuming technological or economic factors make it possible over time to replicate ever more network elements, unbundling is hypothesized to create a ladder of 4 5 6 See eg., Brock, 2002. The incentives of even a monopolist to restrict competition in this way are fact-dependent. See eg., Farrell and Weiser (2003). For an overview of the arguments, see generally, Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (2003). 87 264 R.W. Crandall et al. / Telecommunications Policy 37 (2013) 262–281 investment that facilitates the ability of entrants to duplicate incumbents’ network facilities and thus expand the realm of infrastructure-based competition.7 Thus, at least in theory, unbundling could result in lower prices, increased product differentiation, more rapid innovation and – if entrants succeed in climbing the ladder of investment – increased levels of investment and more competitive markets as measured by infrastructure-based competition.8 The size of the potential benefits from unbundling are directly related to the proportion of total revenues that is amenable to competition, and the extent to which competition in the replicable portions of the market results in lower costs, more choice, more rapid innovation, or greater potential for competitive entry. Thus, while communications regulators had considered the use of unbundling policies in the context of voice services alone, the emergence of broadband services (that is, DSL) in the mid-1990s strengthened the case for unbundling, for at least three reasons: (1) the revenues subject to competition increased, as broadband ISP services were replicable; (2) the potential benefits from product differentiation and innovation were expected to be greater in the innovative, differentiated broadband market than in the mature, commoditized market for voice telephony;9 and, (3) the emergence of technological convergence and new last-mile technologies might allow entrants to replicate previously un-replicable network elements (for example, through the use of wireless local loop technologies in place of twisted pair copper), ultimately increasing intermodal competition.10 2.2. Challenges and potential costs The potential costs of unbundling come in two forms. First, it is increasingly recognized that forced sharing of fixed assets – whether in the form of intellectual property, such as patents, or infrastructure, such as telecommunications networks – generally reduces incentives for competitors to invent and deploy competing platforms.11 More broadly, open access requirements can tip the competitive balance between platforms, either horizontally (for example, providing cable networks a competitive advantage over copper ones) or vertically (for example, giving producers of complementary products a competitive advantage in the battle over economic rents from investments in successful Internet platforms), leading to inefficient resource allocation and harming consumer welfare.12 Thus, it can be argued that broad-based sharing requirements should be avoided altogether except in the context of case-by-case competition enforcement.13 In practice, the benefits of unbundling also depend on the ability of regulators to create and implement efficient regulatory regimes. The challenges of doing so can be grouped into four specific tasks: (1) design; (2) pricing; (3) enforcement; and, (4) adaptation. Design refers to both the need to determine which network elements are non-replicable (and thus appropriately subject to unbundling) and the requirement to put in place various operational mandates necessary to implement network sharing. Virtually all copper unbundling regimes require the incumbent to make available the last-mile local loop and to allow entrants access to the wire center in order to connect their equipment (that is, a digital line signal access multiplexer, or DLSAM) to the subscriber’s line (collocation). In many cases, however, regulators have gone further, either requiring line sharing (that is, allowing the entrant to lease only the portion of a line’s bandwidth needed to provide unregulated data services, leaving the incumbent to continue providing voice service, at regulated prices),14 or forcing the incumbent to provide other elements thought to be necessary for entrants to compete, as in the case of the FCC’s unbundled network element platform or UNE-P.15 In some cases, regulators may conclude that the need for unbundling varies by geography, with some markets (for example, less densely populated areas) subject to more extensive requirements than others.16 7 See Cave and Vogelsang (2003), Cave (2004) and Cave (2006). For an enthusiastic discussion of the benefits of unbundling, see (Benckler, 2010). 9 For a discussion of the role of product differentiation in telecommunications markets, see Greenstein and Mazzeo (2006). In practice, while there are a few different options for installing DSLAMs and other equipment and in the design of the DSL service, entrants and the incumbent generally install virtually the same equipment and offer the same broadband services over the incumbent’s copper-loop. Competition is thus limited primarily to price and to various branding-related differentiators. 10 In the early days of copper-loop unbundling, incumbents may have had a first-mover advantage because they had engineered the underlying copper plant and had long-lived customer relationships with virtually every potential DSL subscriber. On the other hand, it has been alleged that the incumbents were reluctant to use this advantage to promote the new DSL broadband services aggressively because these services could compete with high-margin business services, such as T1 or frame-relay services. Thus, one hypothesized benefit of local-loop unbundling was that it might induce entry from firms that would promote DSL more aggressively than the incumbents. 11 See, for example, Weiser (2003) and Robinson and Weisman (2008). 12 See, for example, Renda (2010). 13 See Eisenach (2011) and Hovenkamp (2011). For example, antitrust together with intellectual property is often a better vehicle for addressing such problems as interconnection and the lack of neutrality in networked communications. Regulatory solutions have tended to go too far, requiring interconnection and sharing even when doing so inefficiently diminishes investment incentives. 14 Many entrants are not interested in obtaining the entire loop because they must then replicate the incumbent’s local voice switching facilities to deliver low-valued local voice/data services. European Competitive Telecommunications Association (ECTA) (2009) reported in its latest broadband scorecard (for the 3rd quarter of 2009) that entrants leased a total of 30.7 million lines in the EU-27, of which 7.4 million were in the form of line sharing. See ECTA (2009). (hereafter ECTA Scorecard (2009)). 15 For a discussion of UNE-P, See Federal Communications Commission, (2005) in which the FCC removed switching from the list of unbundled network elements and thus effectively eliminated the UNE platform (hereafter UNE-P remand order). 16 See, for example, OECD (2010) 8 It?! Au tho rs Alan Roth Anne Veigle Anthony Jones Diane Holland Jasamyn Roberts Jon Banks Ram Dhingra Kevin Rupy Mary Sc hultz Patric Brogan Portia Krebs Robert Mayer Tom Boroka UBTelec om Events UBTelecom Media Walter Mc Connic Archives USTELECOM 88 Who We Ale Issues Broadband Industry Events SI. Education News Home 3- Blog Eisenach Paper Examines Broadband Competition Anne ?v'eigle ?125.201 2 The notion that broadband servic es share similar competitive and economic haracteristic with the information technology sector is ?increasingly apparent." according to economist Jeffrey Eisenach in a new paper. ?Broadband Competition in the Internet Ecosystem.? But despite this 'rapidly emerging consensus," broadband services remain subject to a =starkly different and increasingly anachronistic regulatory regime" compared to other lT industries. Eisenach said. As Eisenach has said previously, including in remarks on a UBTele-com webcast. it is not possible to distinguish meaningfully between the competitive characteristics of broadband markets and other IT markets. Therefore there is no basis for ?asymmetric regulatory treatment," according to the paper. Broadband markets are shaped by complex interactions between market-speci?c factors on both the supply and demand sides. ?t?et- prescriptive regulation has made initial inroads into the lntemet ecosystem with the asymmetric application of "open lntemet" rules to broadband providers. Meanwhile the legacy of traditional telecommunications regulation remain in place ?at the Federal Communications Commission and state public utility commissions and risk being extended to broadband. Eisenach urges replacing this framework with a pro- competition. antitrust-based approach to broadband competition policy. Patrick Brogan. UBTelec om ?v'ice President of industry Analysis. praised Eisenac h's paper for its indepth look at the competitive dynamics of the broadband industry. "Traditional economic approaches focused on horizontal competition and market concentration fall short in fully capturing the competitive dynamic in broadband markets." Brogan said. 'This paper goes beyond the typical superficial analysis and delves deeply into the competitive forces affecting broadband providers from throughout the ecosystem of networks, devices. applications. and ontent." ?The paper provides an informative explanation of the structure-perfomiance paradox. in which relatively concentrated industries may exhibit strong competitive outc omes?such as output growth and rapid innovation." Brogan said. ?Jeff Eisenac h's work. along with Jonathan Ballet's work on the Broadband ?v'alue Circle'i? provides critical input to the question of competitiveness and value creation in broadband markets as we migrate from the legacy switched network to broadband lntemet networks." Blog 89 AEI ECONOMIC STUDIES BROADBAND COMPETITION IN THE INTERNET ECOSYSTEM JEFFREY A. E ISENACH October 2012 A M E R I C A N E N T E R P R I S E I N S T I T U T E 90 AEI ECONOMIC STUDIES BROADBAND COMPETITION IN THE I NTERNET E COSYSTEM JEFFREY A. E ISENACH October 2012 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 91 Acknowledgments I am grateful for comments and suggestions from Rob Atkinson, Patrick Brogan, Kevin Caves, Larry Downes, Everett Ehrlich, Joseph Fuhr, Shane Greenstein, Robert Kulick, Jonathan Sallet, Nick Schulz, Howard Shelanski, Hal Singer, Scott Wallsten, Dennis Weisman, and several anonymous commenters. Partial support for an earlier version of this paper was provided by Verizon Communications. All views expressed, and any remaining errors, are solely the responsibility of the author. iii 92 Foreword I n this paper, Jeff Eisenach tackles the important and timely debate surrounding the regulation of Internetbased communications. Broadband service providers are currently treated differently from other information technology industries in that they are subject to increasing levels of ex ante regulation by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Other Internet sectors are subject to ex post treatment under standard antitrust laws. The discrepancy is justified by claims that broadband is somehow crucially different from the remainder of the Internet ecosystem and as a result requires special regulatory practices. The FCC outlined its rationale in the December 2010 Open Internet Order; however, its authority to implement the order is currently being challenged in court. Verizon Wireless appealed FCC’s “data roaming” rules, which would impose new open-access regulations on broadband service providers, and last month the FCC presented oral arguments defending its rules. In a similar case, the DC Court of Appeals will pass judgment next year on the “net neutrality” rules, which would prohibit broadband providers from engaging in business practices that are both common and legal in other industries. The outcomes of these cases will help answer the question at the heart of the issue: will more regulation improve broadband networks? The case for heavier government regulation is often justified on the grounds that competition in broadband markets operates differently from competition in other Internet markets. Many believe that broadband is a monopoly, but in this paper, Eisenach argues the other side and makes a convincing case that this assumption is simply not true. He analyzes the core characteristics of broadband networks—dynamism, modularity, network effects, and multisidedness—which are remarkably similar to other information technology industries. His analysis effectively dismantles the claim that broadband deserves asymmetric regulatory treatment and suggests that modern antitrust principles should be applied instead. Applying the proper pro regulatory framework is crucial since a failure to do so can stifle the incentives to innovate with broad implications for the entire economy. It is my hope that this paper will help identify the appropriate policies that will encourage competition among broadband service providers. —Aparna Mathur, AEI Economic Studies Editor v 93 Executive Summary L ike the other information technology (IT) markets that comprise the Internet ecosystem, broadband communications services are characterized by rapid innovation, declining costs, product differentiation, competitive price discrimination, network effects, and “multisidedness.” Broadband Internet service providers (ISPs) make large sunk cost investments and seek to differentiate their products so that they can earn economic returns on those investments. They seek to assemble or participate in systems that create value for consumers and do so by choosing both the platforms they join and the products with which they interconnect. They experience both supply-side economies of scale and scope and demand-side externalities that create powerful incentives to increase volumes by maximizing system openness, but as with other IT firms, these incentives do not always outweigh the costs of interoperability. In short, like other IT markets, broadband (1) is characterized by rapid innovation, high sunk costs, and declining average costs (dynamism); (2) functions as a complementary component in modular platforms (modularity); and (3) is subject to demand-side economies of scope and scale (network effects). Despite these similarities, broadband is treated differently from other IT industries when it comes to competition policy: competition in the rest of the IT sector is subject to scrutiny under antitrust laws, while broadband is regulated by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). Indeed, the FCC is currently in court defending its authority to impose “net neutrality” regulations prohibiting broadband ISPs from engaging in business practices that are both presumptively legal and commonplace in other industries. In the wireless arena, the FCC asserts its authority over the electromagnetic spectrum to impose economic regulation on wireless ISPs. And the commission’s recent decision to extend the $9 billion “universal service” program (heretofore limited to telephone services) to broadband promises to impose de facto price controls on broadband ISPs that participate. In short, while other elements of the “Internet ecosystem”—applications, content and devices— receive ex post treatment under the antitrust laws, broadband ISPs are subject to ex ante regulation. Broadband is regulated differently from other IT markets in part because it is analyzed differently. Although important unsettled questions remain about how best to police competition in such markets, it is generally agreed that analysis of such markets should deemphasize the traditional “structure-conductperformance” paradigm and assess the consequences of potentially harmful conduct on a case-by-case basis. Thus, high levels of concentration in IT markets such as handsets, operating systems, search engines, and social networks are not regarded as signals of market power (or at least not market power sufficient to justify ex ante regulation), but the FCC often still utilizes anachronistic measures of concentration to justify regulation of broadband markets. One asserted rationale for asymmetric treatment is the notion that broadband networks are uniquely at the “core” of the Internet while content, applications and devices are at the “edge.” This metaphor is at best misleading, and in any case does not justify differential policy treatment. To the contrary, for purposes of competition analysis, it is no longer possible to distinguish meaningfully between the competitive characteristics of broadband markets and other IT markets, and accordingly, there is no basis for asymmetric regulatory treatment. Accordingly, ex ante oversight of competition by the FCC should be replaced by the same ex post enforcement framework that applies to the rest of the Internet ecosystem. 1 94 1 Introduction I t is increasingly apparent that markets for broadband communications services share many of the “high-tech” characteristics found in other information technology (IT) markets, including rapid innovation, declining costs, product differentiation and competitive price discrimination, network effects, and “multisidedness.”1 These characteristics have important implications for competition analysis, including the need for increased focus on market dynamism and vertical relationships among market participants, a reduced emphasis on traditional structural presumptions, and increased reliance on case-by-case analysis. Some scholars suggest competition in IT markets is so naturally intense, or that the risks of policy error are sufficiently high, that enforcers should apply a reduced level of antitrust scrutiny.2 Others argue that IT markets are in some respects more prone to market failure than more traditional markets and hence deserve enhanced scrutiny.3 The Federal Communications Commission’s (FCC’s) December 2010 Open Internet Order seems to endorse an extreme form of the latter view.4 While the FCC presented a cursory “structural” assessment of the broadband market,5 it ultimately concluded that the conduct it sought to deter does “not depend upon broadband providers having market power with respect to end users”6 and, in fact, that the “broad purposes of this rule . . . cannot be achieved by preventing only those practices that are demonstrably anticompetitive or harmful to consumers.”7 Instead, the FCC determined that ex ante regulation of broadband providers’ conduct in the “Internet ecosystem”8 was justified based on arguments associated with network effects and multisidedness—theories that, it concluded, suggest that broadband Internet service providers (ISPs) might “set inefficiently high fees to edge providers”9 or “withhold or decline to expand capacity.”10 The FCC’s acknowledgement that broadband markets have become integrated with the overall Internet ecosystem is reflective of a rapidly emerging consensus.11 However, its decision to impose price controls and preemptively ban certain conduct, and to do so without finding that the conduct at issue was harmful to consumers, is not easily squared with mainstream academic opinion, which widely agrees that competition oversight of IT markets should be case-specific, narrowly tailored, and grounded in a concern for consumer welfare.12 As this is written, the FCC’s authority to implement the Open Internet Order is being challenged in litigation before the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit.13 Even if the challenge is successful, however, the FCC might assert its authority to impose ex ante rules on broadband services through a variety of means. For example, the agency imposes various regulations on wireless ISPs, based at least in part on its authority over the electromagnetic spectrum,14 and, its recent expansion of the Federal Universal Service Fund—heretofore limited to supporting voice communications services—would subject broadband ISPs receiving support from the new Connect America Fund to de facto price regulation.15 Moreover, even if the Open Internet Order is overturned, the FCC might well attempt to revisit its prior decisions declaring that broadband is not a telecommunications service and hence not subject to the FCC’s core authority over common carriers. As recently as 2010, the FCC’s general counsel issued a memorandum stating that it could declare broadband a Title II “communications service,” subject to the full array of common carrier rules designed for monopoly providers of traditional telephone service.16 The central thesis here is that the expansion of ex ante FCC regulation over broadband markets is 3 95 AEI ECONOMIC STUDIES inconsistent with both academic consensus and market reality. To the contrary, the convergence of broadband with other IT markets argues for a convergence at the policy level as well: if it is no longer possible to distinguish meaningfully between the competitive characteristics of broadband markets and other IT markets, the basis for asymmetric regulatory treatment—for ex ante regulation of broadband services and ex post antitrust scrutiny of other IT markets—is impossible to sustain. Further, if the choice is between applying modern competition principles to broadband and subjecting the rest of the Internet ecosystem to FCCstyle regulation, the former course is far superior to the latter. In this context, this paper examines the market for broadband services through the lens of the literature on competition in IT markets. I conclude that the competitive dynamics17 of broadband markets are now substantially similar to those in other sectors of the Internet ecosystem and that competition oversight of broadband markets should therefore be brought into conformity with the ex post, case-specific approach applied to other IT markets. This discussion is organized around three sets of characteristics that distinguish competition in IT markets from competition in more traditional ones: dynamism, modularity, and network effects. By dynamism, I refer to what is sometimes called “innovation competition” or “Schumpeterian competition.” It is the idea that firms compete primarily by creating new and better products, as opposed to “static competition,” in which firms compete to charge the lowest price for a homogenous and unchanging commodity. Markets characterized by rapid innovation are often associated with high rates of capital spending (for R&D and capital expenditures), economies of scale and scope, “competitive price discrimination,” and product differentiation. Modularity refers to what some have called “mix and match” competition: the ability to assemble bundles of complementary products from different suppliers, and the interoperability (for example, the existence of standards or of a technology “platform”) that makes it possible to do so. Providers of complementary products in 4 such markets must cooperate to make their products work together, but they also compete for the economic rents generated by a successful platform, including by seeking to become “customer facing.” Third, network effects are present in markets where the value of a product or service to each customer is affected by the number of other customers who use it, as with telephones and fax machines, for example. Multisided markets represent a particular form of network effects, in which some types of consumers attach value to the presence of other customer types, such as when stock exchanges compete for both listings and investors or newspapers compete for both readers and advertisers. Both phenomena represent what can also be referred to as demand-side complementarities or, to be more specific, demand-side economies of scale (network effects) and demandside economies of scope (multisidedness). Taken together, these characteristics cause the competitive dynamics of IT markets to differ from the competitive dynamics of more traditional ones. They help to explain, for example, why IT markets are often relatively concentrated yet typically exhibit high levels of rivalry and strong performance. All three sets of characteristics are present in broadband markets, which despite being relatively concentrated, evidence falling prices, rising output, rapid innovation, and few apparent instances of anticompetitive conduct. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly discusses the “structureperformance paradox,” finding that, like many other IT markets, the broadband market exhibits both (a) relatively high levels of concentration by traditional metrics, and (b) strong performance in terms of output expansion, innovation, and other metrics. Section 3 describes the broadband market from the perspective of the three themes I described—dynamism, modularity, and network effects—and shows how the economic phenomena associated with these concepts affect the competitive dynamics of broadband markets, causing them to behave like IT markets. Section 4 outlines some specific implications of this analysis for competition oversight of broadband markets, 96 THEORIES OF BROADBAND COMPETITION Jeffrey A. Eisenach† Draft June 20, 2011 † Managing Director and Principal, Navigant Economics, and Adjunct Professor, George Mason University Law School. The author is grateful for comments and suggestions from Kevin Caves, Everett Ehrlich,, Robert Kulick,, g , Dennis Weisman and several anonymous y pp for this research Jonathan Sallet,, Hal Singer, commenters. Partial support was provided p byy Verizon Communications. All views expressed, and any remaining errors, are solely the responsibility of the author. Further comments and suggests are welcomed. Please do not quote without permission. © 2011 Jeffrey A. Eisenach. Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1868381 97 Abstract Like the other information technology (IT) markets that comprise the Internet ecosystem, markets for broadband communications services are characterized by rapid innovation, declining costs, product differentiation and the potential for competitive price discrimination, network effects, and “multi-sidedness.” Broadband ISPs make large, sunk cost investments and seek to differentiate their products in order to be able to earn economic returns on those investments. They seek to assemble and/or participate in systems that create new value for consumers, and do so by picking and choosing both the platforms in which they participate and the products with which they interconnect. They experience both supply-side economies of scale and scope and demand-side externalities that create powerful incentives to increase volumes by maximizing system openness, but, as with other IT firms, these incentives do not always outweigh the costs of interoperability. This paper examines the competitive dynamics of broadband through the lens of the economic literature on competition in IT markets. It concludes that broadband markets are shaped by three sets of characteristics that distinguish competition in IT markets from competition in more traditional ones. Like other IT markets, broadband: (1) is characterized by high sunk costs, declining costs, and rapid innovation (dynamism); (2) functions as a complementary component in modular platforms (modularity); (3) is subject to demand-side economies of scope and scale (network effects). It is generally agreed that these characteristics have important implications for competition analysis, including increased focus on market dynamics and on “vertical” relationships among market participants, reduced emphasis on traditional structural presumptions, and the need to assess efficiency and competitive effects of various forms of conduct on a case-by-case basis. One implication of this analysis is that the central metaphor used in the analysis of communications markets today – the notion that broadband networks are uniquely at the “core” of the Internet while content, applications and devices are at the “edge” – is at best misleading, and in any case does not justify differential policy treatment. To the contrary, for purposes of competition analysis, it is no longer possible to distinguish meaningfully between the competitive characteristics of broadband markets and other IT markets. Accordingly, there is no basis for asymmetric regulatory treatment – for ex ante regulation of broadband services and ex post antitrust scrutiny of other IT markets. The unavoidable conclusion is that competition oversight of broadband markets should be conformed to modern antitrust principles. DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1868381 98 Contents I. Introduction ........................................................................................................................1 II. Broadband Competition: The Structure-Performance Paradox .................................6 A. The Structural Presumption .................................................................................... 8 B. The Performance Paradox ..................................................................................... 13 III. Broadband Competition in the Internet Ecosystem .....................................................21 A. Dynamism ............................................................................................................. 23 B. Modularity............................................................................................................. 33 C. Network Effects and Multi-sidedness ................................................................... 46 D. The Competitive Dynamics of Modern Broadband Markets ................................ 55 IV. Implications for Competition Policy ..............................................................................56 A. General Principles ................................................................................................. 57 B. Vertical Issues ....................................................................................................... 65 C. Horizontal Issues ................................................................................................... 68 V. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................70 DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 99 I. INTRODUCTION It is increasingly apparent that markets for broadband communications services share many of the “high-tech” characteristics found in other information technology (IT) markets – including rapid innovation, declining costs, product differentiation and the potential for competitive price discrimination, network effects, and “multi-sidedness.”1 It is generally agreed that these characteristics have important implications for competition analysis, including the need for increased focus on market dynamism and on “vertical” relationships among market participants, a reduced emphasis on traditional structural presumptions, and increased reliance on case-by-case analysis. Some scholars suggest competition in IT markets is so naturally intense, or that the risks of policy error are sufficiently high, that enforcers should apply a reduced level of antitrust scrutiny.2 Others argue that IT markets are in some respects more prone to market failure than more traditional markets, and hence deserve enhanced scrutiny.3 The Federal Communications 1 The general notion that telecommunications has “converged” with other “New Economy” sectors such as the Internet and computer software is of course not new. See, e.g., Joseph Farrell and Philip J. Weiser, “Modularity, Vertical Integration, and Open Access Policies: Towards a Convergence of Antitrust and Regulation in the Internet Age,” Harvard Journal of Law & Technology 17;1 (Fall 2003) 85-134 at 87 (“As the Internet, computer software, and telecommunications (‘New Economy’) industries converge, affected firms will increasingly seek clear and consistent legal rules.”); Michael K. Powell, “The Great Digital Broadband Migration,” in J.A Eisenach and R.J. May, eds., Communications Deregulation and FCC Reform: Finishing the Job (Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001) 11-21 at 15-16 (“Computer systems working in parity with communications have spawned the Internet and the advanced networks we see today that fully integrate satellites, telephones, wireless devices, broadcasting and cable over fiber-optic, broadband, and wireless networks. The result is what we now call convergence.”); and, Richard A. Posner, “Antitrust in the New Economy,” Antitrust Law Journal 68 (2001) 925-943 at 925 (“I shall use the term the ‘new economy’ to denote three distinct though related industries. The first is the manufacture of computer software. The second consists of the Internet-based businesses (Internet access providers, Internet service providers, Internet content providers), such as AOL and Amazon. And the third consists of communications services and equipment designed to support the first two markets.”) 2 See, e.g., Geoffrey A. Manne and Joshua D. Wright, “Innovation and the Limits of Antitrust,” Journal of Competition Law & Economics 6;1 (2010) 153-202; Robert W. Crandall and Clifford Winston, “Does Antitrust Policy Improve Consumer Welfare? Assessing the Evidence,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17;4 (Fall 2003) 326; and Daniel F. Spulber, “Unlocking Technology: Antitrust and Innovation,” Journal of Competition Law & Economics 4;4 (2008) 915-966. For a brief summary of the debate, see David Evans, “The Middle Way on Applying Antitrust to Information Technology Industries,” Competition Policy International (November 2009). 3 See, e.g., Carl Shapiro, “Exclusivity in Network Industries,” George Mason Law Review 7 (Spring 1999) 673682; F.M. Scherer, “Technological Innovation and Monopolization,” John F. Kennedy School of Government (October 2007) (available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=1019023); Mark Cooper, “The Importance of Open Networks DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 100 2 Commission’s (FCC’s) recent Open Internet Order seems to represent an endorsement of an extreme form of the latter view.4 While the Commission briefly analyzed the market from a traditional “structural” perspective,5 it ultimately declined to base its net neutrality regulations on a finding of traditional market power, stating instead that the conduct it sought to deter does “not depend upon broadband providers having market power with respect to end users,”6 and, in fact, that the “broad purposes of this rule…cannot be achieved by preventing only those practices that are demonstrably anticompetitive or harmful to consumers.”7 Instead, the Commission determined that ex ante regulation of broadband providers’ conduct in the “Internet ecosystem”8 was justified based on arguments associated with network effects and multi-sidedness – theories which, the Commission concluded, suggest that broadband ISPs might “set inefficiently high fees to edge providers,”9 or “withhold or decline to expand capacity.”10 The Commission’s acknowledgement that broadband markets have become integrated with the overall Internet ecosystem is reflective of a rapidly emerging consensus.11 However, its decision to impose price controls and preemptively ban certain conduct, and to do so without in Sustaining the Digital Revolution,” in T. Lenard and R. May, eds., Net Neutrality or Net Neutering: Should Broadband Internet Service be Regulated? (Progress & Freedom Foundation 2006) 107-161, esp. 126-132. 4 See Federal Communications Commission, In the Matter of Preserving the Open Internet and Broadband Industry Practices, Report and Order (GN Docket No. 09-191, WC Docket No. 07-52 (December 23, 2010) (hereafter Open Internet Order). See also Federal Communications Commission, In the Matter of Preserving the Open Internet and Broadband Industry Practices, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (GN Docket No. 09-191, WC Docket No. 07-52 (October 22, 2009) (hereafter Open Internet NPRM). 5 Open Internet Order at ¶ 32-34. 6 Open Internet Order at ¶ 32. 7 Open Internet Order at ¶ 78. 8 Open Internet Order at ¶ 53 (“Promoting competition throughout the Internet ecosystem is a central purpose of these rules.”) 9 Open Internet Order at ¶ 25; see generally ¶¶ 24-28. 10 Open Internet Order at ¶ 29; see generally ¶¶ 29-20. While rejecting a traditional market power analysis, the Commission did embrace a theory of exclusionary market power based on based on raising rivals’ costs. See ¶¶ 2123. 11 For example, the National Broadband Plan Report specifically concludes that broadband markets are part of a “broadband ecosystem.” See Federal Communications Commission, Omnibus Broadband Initiative, Connecting America: The National Broadband Plan (March 2010) at xi (“Policymakers, including the FCC, have a broad set of tools to protect and encourage competition in the markets that make up the broadband ecosystem: network services, DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 101 3 justifying its action on the basis of traditional antitrust principles, is not easily squared with mainstream academic opinion, where it is widely agreed that competition oversight of IT markets should be case-specific, narrowly-tailored and based on traditional frameworks of analysis.12 While certainly noteworthy, the Open Internet Order is far from the only instance in which broadband regulation diverges from modern antitrust practice. As discussed further below, despite a broad consensus that the long-presumed relationship between market concentration and performance is far more tenuous than previously assumed – and, in dynamic, innovative markets, non-existent – the FCC and other regulators continue to rely heavily on structural presumptions as a justification for ex ante regulation of communications services of all kinds. Thus, communications regulation differs from competition oversight of other markets in substance as well as in form. The central thesis here is that the convergence of broadband (and, more broadly, communications services in general) with other IT markets argues against applying traditional telecommunications regulation to broadband. If it is no longer possible to distinguish meaningfully between the competitive characteristics of broadband markets and other IT markets, the basis for asymmetric regulatory treatment – for ex ante regulation of broadband services and ex post antitrust scrutiny of other IT markets – is impossible to sustain. Further, if the choice is between applying modern competition principles to broadband, or subjecting the rest of the Internet ecosystem to FCC-style regulation, the former course is far superior to the latter. devices, applications and content.”) (available at http://www.broadband.gov/download-plan/) (hereafter NBP Report); see also id. at 15. 12 See, e.g., Jerry Brito, Martin E. Cave, Robert W. Crandall, Larry Darby, Everett Ehrlich, Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Jerry Ellig, Henry Ergas, David J. Farber, Gerald R. Faulhaber, Robert W. Hahn, Alfred E. Kahn, Wayne A. Leighton, Robert E. Litan, Glen O. Robinson, Hal J. Singer, Vernon L. Smith, William E. Taylor, Timothy J. Tardiff, Leonard Waverman, and Dennis Weisman, “Net Neutrality Regulation: The Economic Evidence” (April 12, 2010) (available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1587058). DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 102 4 In this context, this paper examines the market for broadband services through the lens of the literature on competition in IT markets. It concludes that the competitive dynamics13 of broadband markets are now substantially similar to those in other sectors of the Internet ecosystem, and that competition oversight of broadband markets should therefore be brought into conformity with the ex post, case specific approach applied to other IT markets. The discussion is organized around three sets of characteristics that distinguish competition in IT markets from competition in more traditional ones: Dynamism; Modularity; and, Network Effects. By dynamism, I refer to what is sometimes called “innovation competition” or “Schumpeterian competition.” It is the idea that firms compete primarily by creating new and better products, as opposed to “static competition,” in which firms compete to charge the lowest price for a homogenous and unchanging commodity. Markets characterized by rapid innovation are often associated with high rates of capital spending (for R&D and/or capital expenditures), economies of scale and scope, “competitive price discrimination” and product differentiation.14 Modularity refers to what some have called “mix and match” competition – the ability to assemble bundles of complementary products from different suppliers, and the interoperability (i.e., the existence of standards, or of a technology “platform”) that makes it possible to do so. Markets where modularity is present sometimes make mischief with traditional economic notions of “vertical” and “horizontal” relationships: producers may be both “upstream” in the sense of providing inputs to “customer facing” retailers, and “downstream” in the sense of selling both their own products and the products of their “competitors” directly to customers. 13 I use the term “competitive dynamics” to refer broadly to “how competition works” – i.e., to the ways in which technology, institutional structures, demand conditions, and other salient market characteristics are related to industry structure, competitive outcomes and market performance. 14 Antitrust authorities have sought to address some of these issues through the concept of “innovation markets,” as described in Department of Justice/Federal Trade Commission, Antitrust Guidelines for the Licensing of Intellectual Property (April 6, 1995) at 10-13. DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 103 5 While such firms must cooperate to make their products work together, they also compete for the economic rents generated by a successful platform. Third, network effects are present in markets where the value of a product or service to each customer is affected by the number or nature of other customers who use it, as, for example, with telephones and fax machines. Multi-sided markets represent a particular form of network effects, in which some types of consumers attach value to the presence of other customer types, such as when stock exchanges compete for both listings and investors, and newspapers compete for both readers and advertisers. Both phenomena represent what can also be referred to as demand-side complementarities or, to be more specific, demand-side economies of scale (network effects) and demand-side economies of scope (multi-sidedness).15 Taken together, these characteristics cause the competitive dynamics of IT markets to differ from the competitive dynamics of more traditional ones. They help to explain, for example, why IT markets are often relatively concentrated, yet typically exhibit high levels of rivalry and strong performance. All three sets of characteristics are present in broadband markets, which, despite being relatively concentrated, evidence falling prices, rising output, rapid innovation, and few apparent instances of anticompetitive conduct. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section II discusses the “structureperformance paradox,” examining the broadband services market from the traditional perspective of structural characteristics like concentration ratios and barriers to entry, and performance measures like price changes and rates of new product introduction and innovation, and concluding that, like many other IT markets, the broadband services market exhibits (a) 15 Somewhat confusingly, the term “platform” is often used to describe markets characterized by either modularity or demand-side economies. In each case, a “platform” consists of a set of institutional arrangements that permit the exploitation of complementarities on the supply side (i.e., between complementary goods), the demand side (i.e., between complementary customers or customer groups), or both. As discussed below, there is a DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 104 6 relatively high levels of concentration by traditional metrics, and (b) strong performance in terms of output expansion, innovation, and other metrics. Section III describes the broadband services market from the perspective of the three themes described above – Dynamism, Modularity, and Network Effects – and seeks to explain how the economic phenomena associated with these concepts affect the competitive dynamics of broadband markets, causing them to behave “like IT markets.” Section IV outlines some specific implications of this analysis for competition policy as it relates to broadband markets, concluding overall that the dynamism and complexity of broadband markets, and their interrelatedness with other elements of the Internet ecosystem, argue strongly against the sort of industrial-policy-oriented, ex ante regulation of the type practiced by the FCC. Section V provides a brief conclusion. II. BROADBAND COMPETITION: THE STRUCTURE-PERFORMANCE PARADOX In a 1999 article on competition in the computer industry, Tim Bresnahan took note of an interesting paradox arising out of Andy Grove’s description of the computer industry. Grove argued that the industry had shifted from a “vertical” to a “horizontal” structure (see Figure 1). The new “mix and match” model, he said, comprised of independent competitors at each of several layers (e.g., Dell and Hewlett-Packard selling computers, Microsoft and Apple selling operating systems, etc.) was more competitive than the previous structure, in which vertically integrated firms (e.g., IBM and DEC) competed to sell the entire “stack” of complementary products and services. As Bresnahan noted, Grove was “hardly alone. Almost all market burgeoning academic literature on platforms and platform competition, though many of the results are not easily generalized to real world situations. DRAFT – COMMENTS WELCOMED PLEASE DO NOT QUOTE WITHOUT PERMISSION 105 Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington, D.C. 20554 ____________________________________ ) ) ) International Comparison and Consumer ) Survey Requirements in the Broadband ) Data Improvement Act ) ) A National Broadband Plan for ) ) Our Future ) Deployment of Advanced ) Telecommunications Capability to All ) Americans in a Reasonable and Timely ) Fashion and Possible Steps to Accelerate ) Such Deployment Pursuant to Section 706 ) of the Telecommunications Act. ) ____________________________________) In the Matter of GN Docket No. 09-47 GN Docket No. 09-51 GN Docket No. 09-137 SUPPLEMENTAL DECLARATION OF ROBERT W. CRANDALL, EVERETT M. EHRLICH, JEFFREY A. EISENACH, AND ALLAN T. INGRAHAM REGARDING THE BERKMAN CENTER STUDY (NBP PUBLIC NOTICE 13) MAY 10, 2010 106 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION..............................................................................................................1 II. THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSES OF UNBUNDLING CONTAINED IN THE DRAFT REPORT WERE WITHDRAWN FROM THE FINAL REPORT ...............4 III. THE REMAINING EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE SHOWS UNBUNDLING REDUCES BROADBAND PENETRATION .................................................................7 IV. CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................................................14 107 I. 1. INTRODUCTION On February 15, 2010, the Berkman Center for Internet and Society submitted a report entitled Next Generation Connectivity: A Review of Broadband Internet Transitions and Policy from Around the World (“Final Report”) to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC),1 as part of the Commission’s Omnibus Broadband Initiative. An earlier draft of this report (the “Draft Report”) had been submitted to the FCC in October 2009, and the FCC had solicited comments on the draft.2 The FCC received a number of critical responses to the Initial Report, including the Declaration of Robert W. Crandall, Everett M. Ehrlich, and Jeffrey A. Eisenach (“Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach”), which was filed November 16, 2009.3 The Final Report attempts to respond to these comments. Specifically, Annex 4.14.1, entitled “Follow-up Note on Estimating the Impact of Unbundling on Internet Penetration Rates,” contains a partial response to the empirical analyses presented in the Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach critique. 2. One of the central issues addressed in the Draft Report was whether empirical evidence supports the notion that “unbundling” policies have increased broadband penetration in other nations. The Draft Report contained a partial review of the empirical literature on this question, and also conducted a number of cross-country regression analyses. It concluded that 1 Next Generation Connectivity: A Review of Broadband Internet Transitions and Policy from Around the World (February 15, 2010) (available at: http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/pubrelease/broadband/) (hereafter, Final Report). 2 Next Generation Connectivity: A Review of Broadband Internet Transitions and Policy from Around the World, October 2009 (Draft) (available at http://www.fcc.gov/stage/pdf/Berkman_Center_Broadband_Study_13Oct09.pdf) (hereafter, Draft Report). 3 Declaration of Robert W. Crandall, Everett M. Ehrlich and Jeffrey A. Eisenach Regarding the Berkman Center Study (NPB Notice 13), GN Docket 09-51 (November 16, 2009) (hereafter, Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach) (available at http://fjallfoss.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/view?id=7020348482). The curriculum vitae of Drs. Crandall, Ehrlich and Eisenach were attached to the Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach declaration. Allan T. Ingraham, Ph.D. is a Director at Navigant Economics, LLC. Since the Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach declaration was filed,, Dr. Eisenach has changed Economics LLC.. We are ggrateful to Kevin g affiliation and is now a Managing g g Director at Navigant g Caves and Andrew Card for research assistance, to several commenters for helpful suggestions, and to Verizon Communications for support. The opinions expressed here are our own, as is responsibility for any remaining errors. 108 -2- the empirical evidence demonstrated that “unbundling had a positive and significant effect on levels of [broadband] penetration.”4 The Draft Report referred to its conclusion that “‘open access’ policies … are almost universally understood as having played a core role … in most of the high performing countries” as its “most surprising and significant finding.”5 3. Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach, based on a more complete review of the existing literature, a careful analysis of the Draft Report’s econometric analyses, and additional, original econometric analyses based on an expanded data set, concluded that “the weight of the evidence demonstrates that mandatory unbundling has reduced broadband penetration and deterred investment in broadband telecommunications infrastructure….”6 4. The Final Report acknowledges the Crandall-Ehrlich-Eisenach declaration, and, apparently in response to this critique, omits the language in the Draft Report asserting there is empirical support for unbundling. However, rather than conceding that the empirical evidence actually weighs against unbundling, the Berkman authors say they no longer “believe that 4 Draft Report at 115 (“Our conclusion is that unbundling had a positive and significant effect on levels of penetration; that this effect was somewhat larger, more statistically significant, and more robust than previously thought; and that some of the ambiguity in prior studies can be attributed to the large influence that Switzerland's experience had in dampening the observed effect of unbundling.”) 5 Draft Report at 11. On the basis of its econometric results, the Draft Report also claimed to have established a tie between unbundling policies and economic growth. See Draft Report at 117 (“While unbundling does not explain the entire growth differential, then, it appears to have a statistically significant, robust, effect, of about 1% per year of effective enforcement. In any given year, such an effect may not be considered significant. However, if our analysis is correct, then adding unbundling could, over a decade after introduction, add 10% penetration points. When one recalls that the World Bank study, described in Section 2.5 above, found that a 10 point increase in penetration per 100 translated into 1.21% growth in GDP, and that total GDP growth in the United States between 1997 and 2008 averaged 2.8%, one might consider the long term benefits to growth caused even by increasing penetration by 1 per 100 every year, over and above the effect of all other influences, to be an effect worth considering. This of course assumes that there are no other positive spillovers from high penetration, not captured by GDP growth.”). 6 Several other commenters also offered criticisms of the Draft Report’s empirical analysis, including New Zealand telecommunications economist Bronwyn Howell. See Bronwyn Howell, Comments to the Federal Communications Commission, Washington D.C. on Broadband Study Conducted by the Berkman Center for Internet and Society NPB Public Notice # 13 (November 13, 2009) (available at http://fjallfoss.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/view?id=7020348357). 109 Before the Federal Communications Commission Washington, D.C. 20554 In the Matter of Preserving the Open Internet Broadband Industry Practices ) ) ) ) ) GN Docket No. 09-191 WC Docket No. 07-52 NET NEUTRALITY REGULATION: THE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE APRIL 12, 2010 Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1587058 110 CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................1 II. THE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A FINDING OF SYSTEMATIC MARKET FAILURE ................................................................................2 A. Regulation Is Not Justified on the Basis of Market Power.........................................4 B. Regulation Is Not Justified on the Basis of Network Externalities or “Spillover Effects” in the Markets for Content, Applications or Services ...............10 III. THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS WOULD BAN BENEFICIAL PRACTICES AND OTHERWISE HARM ECONOMIC WELFARE .........................20 A. Most of the Conduct that Would Be Prohibited Is Presumptively Welfare Enhancing .................................................................................................................20 B. The Reasonable Network Management and “Managed Services” Criteria Would Not Protect Consumer Welfare.....................................................................22 C. Enacting the Proposed Regulations Would Raise Regulatory Risk and Harm Investment and Innovation .......................................................................................24 IV. CASE-BY-CASE APPLICATION OF EXISTING STANDARDS IS THE BEST APPROACH ............................................................................................................25 V. CONCLUSION ...................................................................................................................29 Electronic copy available at: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1587058 111 I. 1. INTRODUCTION As economic scholars, professors and practitioners who have studied, taught, and written about regulation of telecommunications, the Internet, and broadband networks in general, and about net neutrality regulation in particular, we are submitting this declaration to provide the Commission with our shared assessment of the economic evidence as it relates to the “net neutrality” regulations proposed in Commission’s Notice of Proposed o Rulemaking Regarding Preserving the Open Internet and Broadband Industry Practices (the “NPRM”). 1 2. In our shared opinion, the economic evidence does not support the proposed regulations; to the contrary, it strongly suggests that the regulations, if adopted, would reduce consumer welfare in both the short and long run. We base this opinion on three overarching conclusions. First, as a general matter, regulation can improve economic welfare only in the face of market imperfections, such as market power, externalities, or information asymmetries. While the markets at issue in this proceeding are characterized by product differentiation, high fixed costs and other deviations from the textbook model of “perfect competition,” the evidence provides no support for the existence of market failure sufficient to warrant ex ante regulation of the type proposed by the Commission. Second, the practices that would be banned under the NPRM are likely, in most circumstances, to be welfare-enhancing. While it is possible to construct theoretical models in which economic welfare might be harmed, there is virtually no empirical evidence that such harm has occurred or is likely to occur in the future. Thus, it is extremely likely that the regulations proposed in the NRPM would harm consumers and competition and reduce economic welfare. 1 Federal Communications Commission, In the Matter of Preserving the Open Internet and Broadband Industry Practices, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (GN Docket No. 09-191; WC Docket No. 07-52, October p 2009) (hereafter “NPRM”). Each of us shares the overall views and primary conclusions expressed herein even though g as individuals we might g characterize pparticular ppoints somewhat differently. y Dr. Eisenach,, whose effort in g its ppreparation p pp by Verizon Communications, is the only signatory who was coordinating was supported compensated for participating in this declaration. 112 -2- Third, to the extent potentially welfare-reducing conduct does emerge, such practices are amenable to a variety of case-by-case remedies under existing law and regulation. There is no need, in other words, for the Commission to throw the welfare-enhancing baby out with the anticompetitive bathwater. 3. The remainder of this declaration is organized as follows. In Section II we summarize the economic evidence as it relates to market failure in the markets at issue, and explain why none of the theories advanced in the NPRM (or any other theories of which we are aware) constitute a valid basis for the proposed rules. In Section III, we summarize the primary ways in which the proposed rules would reduce economic welfare by banning beneficial practices. In Section IV, we briefly explain the basis for our opinion that a case-by-case approach, based on empirical economic analysis of the consumer welfare consequences of specific practices in particular circumstances, is superior to the ex ante regulation proposed in the NPRM. Section V presents a brief summary of our conclusions. II. THE ECONOMIC EVIDENCE DOES NOT SUPPORT A FINDING OF SYSTEMATIC MARKET FAILURE 4. The NPRM proposes that broadband Internet access service providers (“broadband ISPs”) be prohibited from preventing users from (i) “sending or receiving the lawful content of the user’s choice,” (ii) “running the lawful applications or using the lawful services of the user’s choice,” (iii) “connecting to and using on its network the user’s choice of lawful devices;” or, (iv) “depriv[ing] any of its users of the user’s entitlement to competition among network providers, application providers, service providers, and content providers;”2 and, further, that they be required to (v) “treat lawful content, applications, and services in a 2 NPRM at ¶92. As we discuss further below, each of these requirements would be is “subject to reasonable network management;” “subject to exceptions for the needs of law enforcement, public safety, national and homeland security authorities;” and, subject to an exemption for “managed services.” 113 -3- nondiscriminatory manner.” 3 By “nondiscriminatory,” the Commission means “that a broadband Internet access service provider may not charge a content, application, or service provider for enhanced or prioritized access to the subscribers of the broadband Internet access service provider [but] this rule would not prevent a broadband Internet access service provider from charging subscribers different prices for different services.”4 5. In support of these restrictions, the NPRM advances two primary theories of market failure. First, it implies (but does not conclude) that broadband ISPs may have market power, which could cause them to discriminate in their pricing among or between providers of content and applications, or simply to restrict output or charge supra-competitive prices. Second, it posits that network externalities or “spillover effects” might distort ISPs’ incentives, causing them to charge higher-than-optimal fees to content or applications providers. 5 6. The economic evidence demonstrates that the proposed regulations are not justified under either set of theories. With respect to market power, the evidence demonstrates that broadband markets are highly competitive and rivalrous, and hence not generally susceptible to the types of anticompetitive conduct discussed in the NPRM. 6 As for theories associated with network externalities and spillover effects, the underlying literature is, at best, highly stylized, speculative, and heavily dependent on assumptions for which there is no empirical basis. 3 NPRM at ¶105. NPRM at ¶106. The NPRM also proposes a sixth “transparency” principle (see NPRM at ¶¶118-132). Our comments focus on the first five principles and, in particular, the non-discrimination principle. This should not be taken as an indication, however, that we believe the economic evidence necessarily supports “transparency” regulation. 5 See generally NPRM at ¶¶7-8. 6 The relevant geographic market for broadband markets depends on the issue being addressed. For purposes of foreclosure analysis, for example, the appropriate market definition may be either national or international, while in other contexts the relevant geographic market is likely local (see, e.g., Federal Trade Commission, Broadband Connectivity and Competition Policy, FTC Staff Report (June 2007) at 156 (hereafter FTC Report). 4 114 -4- A. Regulation Is Not Justified on the Basis of Market Power 7. The NPRM describes three discrete theories of harm based on market power: (i) broadband ISPs with market power “may have an incentive to raise prices charged to content, application, and service providers and end users;”7 (ii) broadband ISPs, “particularly [those] with market power, may have the incentive and ability to reduce or fail to increase transmission capacity … in order to increase the revenues obtained from content application, and service providers or individual users who desire a higher quality of service;” 8 and, (iii) broadband ISPs with market power which are vertically integrated might “make it more difficult or expensive for end users to access services competing with those offered by the network operator or its affiliates.” 9 8. As a preliminary matter, it is noteworthy that the NPRM’s first two theories of harm (i.e., that broadband ISPs with market power might harm economic welfare by raising prices and/or restricting output) do not appear to distinguish between upstream and downstream market power – that is, they postulate that broadband ISPs might raise prices or restrict output with respect to either consumers, on the one hand, or content, applications and service providers, on the other. Yet, the proposed regulations would do nothing to restrain downstream pricing since, under the proposed non-discrimination rule, both differential and discriminatory pricing to “subscribers” apparently is permitted. 10 7 NPRM at ¶70 (emphasis added). NPRM at ¶71 (emphasis added). 9 NPRM at ¶63 (emphasis added); see also n. 146. 10 We define differential pricing as charging different prices for different services, e.g., charging one price for “Internet access service” and a different price for “Premium Internet access service.” We define “price discrimination” as charging different prices to different consumers for the same service. See e.g., Dennis Weisman and Robert Kulick, “Price Discrimination, Two-Sided Markets and Net Neutrality Regulation,” (March 2010) (available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1582972). 8 115 -5- 9. It is also striking that the NPRM never concludes that broadband ISPs have market power, and, indeed, only once strongly implies it: At paragraph 7, the Commission finds that “In many parts of the United States, customers have limited options for high-speed broadband Internet access service;” 11 and, at paragraph 73, it implies there is a terminating access monopoly issue, such that “even if there is competition among broadband Internet access service providers, once an end-user customer has chosen to subscribe to a particular broadband Internet access service provider, this may give that broadband Internet access service provider the ability, at least in theory, to favor or disfavor any traffic destined for that subscriber.” 12 In all other cases, the Commission’s references to ISP market power are purely hypothetical. 10. The NPRM’s failure to examine empirically whether broadband ISPs have market power is difficult to understand, since the issue of market power is central to any meaningful assessment of the impact of the proposed rules. 13 For example, if broadband ISPs do not possess significant power over prices, they cannot set prices above cost or constrain output to either upstream or downstream consumers. If they do not possess the ability to exclude rivals, they cannot plausibly protect or extend their “monopolies” in neighboring markets by raising their rivals’ costs through discrimination. Moreover, as we discuss below, many of the stylized empirical models cited by the Commission for the existence of network externalities or spillover effects assume the existence of monopoly (or, at least, Cournotbehaving duopoly) in the broadband market. Thus, the existence of market power is, in our 11 NPRM at ¶7 (emphasis added). NPRM at ¶73. The NPRM does not use the words “terminating monopoly.” Indeed, the word “monopoly” appears only once, at ¶25, in a reference to “the era of monopoly-provided telephone service.” 13 See e.g., Robert Hahn, Robert Litan and Hal Singer, “Addressing the Next Wave of Internet Regulation: The Case For Equal Opportunity,” Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy (January 2010) at 19 (“Perhaps the most jarring comment in the NPRM is the notion that market power and vertical integration (that is, affiliation with content providers) would merely exacerbate the alleged anticompetitive effects of allowing such contracting; these factors are not considered by the Commission to be necessary conditions for the challenged conduct (charging a positive price for QoS) to generate anticompetitive effects.”) 12 116 -6- opinion, a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for concluding that the proposed regulations would benefit consumers or contribute to economic efficiency.14 11. The evidence before the Commission, however, demonstrates that broadband ISPs, in general, do not possess significant market power vis-à-vis pricing or exclusion, nor do they behave like Cournot duopolists. 12. First, as a preliminary matter, the modern market for broadband services is a far cry from the statutory monopoly that formed the basis for the Carterphone regulations, which some net neutrality supporters see as a precedent for the regulations proposed in the NPRM.15 Indeed, there is a widespread consensus today that broadband service in most areas of the United States is not a natural monopoly. As the Justice Department concluded in an ex parte filing in this matter: Between the ongoing deployment of wireline broadband networks, the geographic expansion of wireless broadband services (hopefully spurred by the availability of additional spectrum to broadband wireless services), and increased transparency, the Department is hopeful that the vast majority of American households will benefit from significant competition in their local broadband markets. Put differently, most regions of the United States do not appear to be natural monopolies for broadband service. 16 14 See, e.g., Jon M. Peha, “The Benefits and Risks of Mandating Network Neutrality, and the Quest for a Balanced Policy,” International Journal of Communication 1 (2007), 644-668, at 652 (“The previous section showed that the technologies for discrimination … can be beneficial to users. In this section, we show how a network operator has incentive to use the same technologies to the detriment of users, if and only if it has sufficient market power.”) (emphasis added). 15 See NPRM at ¶25. 16 U.S. Department of Justice, Ex Parte Submission, In the Matter of Economic Issues in Broadband Competition and A National Broadband Plan for Our Future, GN 09-51 (January 5, 2010) at 28 (emphasis added) (hereafter DOJ Ex Parte). See also Declaration of Marius Schwartz, Exhibit 3 to Comments of AT&T, GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010) (hereafter Schwartz Declaration) at 28 (“First, economic logic implies that a broadband provider’s incentive to engage in anticompetitive discrimination is much weaker than was true for the monopoly Bell system. It is well known that the type of price regulation applied to the Bell system will bias a monopolist to integrate into adjacent services that require access to the core monopoly service and stifle competition in those services. The vertically integrated AT&T was very tightly regulated in its prices for the monopoly local phone service (which reportedly were close to marginal cost or lower), but less so for its longdistance and other services. That created strong incentives to restrict competitors’ access to the monopoly service in 117 -7- 13. Further, the fact that the number of broadband ISPs in each market falls short of the textbook idea of atomistic competition is not an indication of market failure, and certainly does not constitute a basis for regulation. As the Department of Justice’s ex parte filing explains, In markets such as this, with differentiated products subject to large economies of scale (relative to the size of the market), the Department does not expect to see a large number of suppliers. Nor do we expect prices to be equated with incremental costs. If they were, suppliers could not earn a normal, riskadjusted rate of return on their investments in R&D and infrastructure. 17 Thus, there is no basis for concluding, simply based on industry structure, that the broadband ISP market is in any way deficient or amenable to improvement by regulation. 14. In fact, the evidence demonstrates that the vast majority of consumers have two or more choices of broadband ISPs, 18 that broadband ISPs engage in intense rivalry to capture and retain consumers, 19 that levels of innovation and technological innovation are high, and that new entry is occurring in the form of both fixed and mobile wireless services. 20 Similarly, order to boost its own sales of those adjacent services. Such strong foreclosure incentives cannot be extrapolated to today’s broadband carriers.”) 17 DOJ Ex Parte at 7. 18 See, e.g., Declaration of Michael D. Topper, Attachment C to Comments of Verizon Communications and Verizon Wireless, GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010), at Attachment B (hereafter Topper Declaration) (showing that 97 percent of households in Verizon’s service territory have both Verizon broadband and cable modem service available). 19 See, e.g., Schwartz Declaration at 32 (providing examples of comparative advertising claims by broadband ISPs); at 33 (providing examples of technology upgrades in response to competitors); at 34 (providing examples of price competition and customer switching behavior). See also Jeffrey A. Eisenach, “Broadband in the U.S. – Myths and Facts,” in Australia’s Broadband Future: Four Doors to Greater Competition (Melbourne: Committee for Economic Development of Australia, 2008) 48-59 at 53-54 (providing examples of competitioninduced innovation). 20 See, e.g., Robert C. Atkinson and Ivy E. Schultz, Broadband in America, Columbia Institute for TeleInformation (November 2009) (hereafter CITI Report) at 7 (Finding that, by 2013-14, “In addition to several wireless broadband choices, the majority of American homes will have the choice of two wired broadband services.”); see also FTC Report at 9 (“There is evidence that the broadband Internet access industry is moving in the direction of more, not less, competition, including fast growth, declining prices for higher-quality service, and the current market-leading technology (i.e., cable modem) losing share to the more recently deregulated major alternative (i.e., DSL).”); see also Declaration of Gary S. Becker and Dennis W. Carlton, Attachment A to 118 -8- recent research has failed to find the existence of supra-competitive profits by broadband ISPs; 21 to the contrary, by standard measures of profitability, applications, content and service providers are far more profitable than cable and telephone companies. 22 15. Most recently, based on an analysis of Form 477 data, the Commission found in its National Broadband Plan that facilities-based broadband ISPs compete on the basis of investment and service quality, 23 and that while data limitations prevent a robust conclusion, there is some evidence that “monthly prices are lower when more wireline providers are in a census tract.” 24 16. Thus, virtually all of the available evidence suggests that broadband ISPs do not have significant market power in most markets.25 Moreover, the evidence demonstrates that Comments of Verizon Communications and Verizon Wireless Comments of Verizon Communications and Verizon Wireless, GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010) at 5 (“[A]vailable evidence suggests that there is substantial and growing competition in the provision of broadband access services. As discussed below, data indicate that (i) multiple broadband Internet access providers are available in nearly all geographic areas; and (ii) a variety of firms are in the process of deploying new broadband access services.”) 21 Thomas W. Hazlett and Dennis L. Weisman, “Market Power in U.S. Broadband Services,” George Mason University Law and Economics Research Paper Series 09-69 (November 2009) at 31 (“We find no credible basis to believe that broadband providers, despite their relatively few numbers, are currently exercising market power.”) 22 See Larry F. Darby, “Facts About Market Power and Profits in the Internet Space,” American Consumer Institute (October 8, 2009) (“Readers will be interested in different comparisons, but the data make clear that, according to each of these measures, operators of broadband networks (Comcast, Time Warner, AT&T and Verizon) earn relatively modest returns compared to other major companies both inside and outside the Internet sector. Indeed, in each case, returns are below the average for firms in the S&P 500 index and substantially below those posted by other firms in the Internet Value Cluster. For example, Google’s profit margin is 2-3 times greater than earned by network providers and twice the average rate for S&P 500 firms.”) (available at http://www.theamericanconsumer.org/2009/10/08/facts-about-market-power-and-profits-in-the-internet-space/). 23 Federal Communications Commission, Connecting America: The National Broadband Plan (March 2010) at 38 (“The presence of a facilities-based competitor impacts investment. Indeed, broadband providers appear to invest more heavily in network upgrades in areas where they face competition…. So, for example, available cable speeds are higher in areas in which cable competes with DSL or fiber than in areas where cable is the only option. DSL and fiber show similar results. Available speeds are even higher where three wireline providers compete (e.g., where a cable over-builder is also present).”). Hereafter, National Broadband Plan. 24 National Broadband Plan at 39. 25 We do not exclude the possibility that broadband ISPs could possess market power in certain geographic markets, and recommend that the Commission (or other enforcement authority) include a finding of market power as a key element in a case-by-case approach to policing anticompetitive behavior in Internet-related markets. However, as we discuss below, localized market power would not in general create the potential for exclusionary behavior by broadband ISPs relative to content and applications providers. 119 -9- broadband markets are becoming more, not less competitive, suggesting that any residual market power which may exist in the market for broadband ISP services is transitory. 26 17. The NPRM also suggests that broadband ISPs may have the ability to raise rivals’ costs or otherwise deter entry and, in cases where they are vertically integrated into content, applications and/or services, might have incentives to discriminate against competing content, applications or service providers. Again, however, there is virtually no empirical evidence that broadband ISPs possess such market power, or that they would have an incentive to use it. Indeed, market power in the access market is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for the ability to engage successfully in such anticompetitive practices. 27 18. Similarly, the NPRM’s concern about a terminating access monopoly problem is entirely hypothetical. While it is conceivable that a broadband ISP could seek to raise prices to content, applications and service providers above the competitive level, a competing broadband ISP would have incentives to undercut those prices, and as a result, offer a broader array of content which would allow them to attract more customers. 28 Moreover, at least some of the 26 See, e.g., National Broadband Plan at 41 (“The ongoing upgrade of the wireless infrastructure is promising because of its potential to be a closer competitor to wireline broadband, especially at lower speeds. For example, if wireless providers begin to advertise, say, 4 Mbps home broadband service, wireline providers may be forced to respond by lowering prices of their broadband offerings. This could be true even if wireless services are more expensive, especially if the service is also mobile.”) 27 See e.g., Hahn, Litan and Singer at 11-12 (“In the absence of significant market power in the access market, it is unlikely that a BSP would have the ability to engage in anticompetitive discrimination. Indeed, a necessary condition for adverse welfare effects in nearly every economic model of vertical foreclosure is that the firm in question has market power—that is, the ability to raise price above competitive levels or exclude rivals. When a firm lacks market power, vertical restraints cannot in theory be motivated by anticompetitive reasons, and are therefore more likely motivated for efficiency reasons.”) See also Schwartz Declaration at n. 51 (“[I]t is far from evident that any individual broadband provider could, even if it tried, have any realistic chance of monopolizing a market for content or applications.”); see also C. Scott Hemphill, “Network Neutrality and the False Promise of Zero-Price Regulation, Yale Journal on Regulation (2008) 135-179, at 156-7 (“As a general matter, then, a content provider is not very vulnerable to exclusion by an access provider that controls only a small part of the content provider's audience. That strategy can no more succeed than if a single computer manufacturer, such as Dell, had tried to shut down Netscape by refusing to carry the Netscape browser.”) 28 See Topper Declaration at 62 (“As evidenced by the high churn rates of wireline and wireless broadband providers, consumers can and do switch providers when faced with more attractive options, and this competitive discipline deters providers from charging ‘inefficiently high’ prices.”) 120 -10- institutional characteristics of the market for traditional telephone services (including retail price regulation) that resulted in concerns about the terminating access monopoly are not present in the market for broadband. 29 As of now, broadband ISPs do not charge terminating access charges, and there is no basis for believing, in the absence of any empirical data whatsoever, that the terminating monopoly problem would lead to access charges above the efficient level. 19. In summary, the proposed regulations cannot be justified on the basis of market power in the market for broadband ISP services. As we explain further below, even if market power exists in some geographic markets, or if there is a potential for exclusionary conduct in some particular instances of vertical integration, these situations would best be addressed through a case-by-case approach, rather than through sweeping ex ante bans on conduct that is likely, in most cases, to be welfare enhancing. 30 B. Regulation Is Not Justified on the Basis of Network Externalities or “Spillover Effects” in the Markets for Content, Applications or Services 20. The second set of market failure theories advanced by the NPRM relates to network externalities and spillover effects, i.e., to the proposition that Internet technologies generate economic benefits which are not fully internalized by the price system, and that charges on providers of content, applications and/or services would lead to under-production of these products and services. 31 In general, these theories rely on a two-sided markets analysis, and suggest that broadband ISPs might have incentives to set fees on content, applications, or 29 See Jerry Brito and Jerry Ellig, “A Tale of Two Commissions: Net Neutrality and Regulatory Analysis,” CommLaw Conspectus 16;2 (2007) at 26-31. 30 See, e.g., FTC Report at 7 (“The balance between competing incentives on the part of broadband providers to engage in, and the potential benefits and harms from, discrimination and differentiation in the broadband area raise complex empirical questions and may call for substantial additional study of the market generally, of local markets, or of particular transactions. Again, further evidence of particular conduct would be useful for assessing both the likelihood and severity of any potential harm from such conduct.”) 31 A related thesis is that the Internet is a “general purpose technology,” which produces external benefits which are not captured by private market actors. See NPRM at ¶64. 121 -11- service providers “too high” relative to the socially optimally level, while setting prices to downstream consumers “too low.” In support of these theories, the NPRM cites articles by Nicholas Economides, 32 Robin S. Lee and Tim Wu, 33 and Barbara van Schewick. 34 In addition, as part of its comments in this proceeding, Google submitted two declarations, one by Professor Economides 35 expanding on his prior work, and citing a co-authored paper with Joacim Tåg, 36 and a second by Christiaan Hogendorn. 37 21. The existing literature on network externalities, spillovers and two-sided markets does not provide support for the proposed rules, for two primary reasons. First, the economic literature on these topics is in a very early stage of development, 38 and is therefore speculative, highly abstract and theoretical, and lacking in empirical support.39 Second, the limited empirical research that is available suggests there is a stronger basis for believing the proposed regulations would harm consumer welfare than for believing they would improve it. 32 Nicholas Economides, “‘Net Neutrality,’ Non-discrimination and Digital Distribution of Content Through the Internet,” I/S: A Journal of Law and Policy for the Information Society 4;2 (2008) 209-233. 33 Robin S. Lee and Tim Wu, “Subsidizing Creativity Through Network Design: Zero-Pricing and Net Neutrality,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 23;3 (Summer 2009) 61–76. 34 Barbara van Schewick, “Towards an Economic Framework for Network Neutrality Regulation,” Journal on Telecommunications and High Technology Law 5 (2007) at 385-86 (discussing the Internet as a “general purpose technology” and concluding that “measures that reduce the amount of application-level innovation have the potential to significantly harm social welfare by significantly limiting economic growth.”) 35 Nicholas Economides, “Why Imposing New Tolls on Third-Party Content and Applications Threatens Innovation and Will Not Improve Broadband Providers’ Investment,” Appendix A to Comments of Google Inc. GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010). 36 Nicholas Economides and Joacim Tåg, “Net Neutrality on the Internet: A Two-Sided Market Analysis” (Rev. May 2009) (available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1019121). 37 See Christiaan Hogendorn, “Spillovers and Network Neutrality,” Appendix B to Comments of Google Inc. GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010). 38 This point is conceded even by net neutrality supporters. See, e.g., Economides and Tåg at 6 (“Despite a considerable literature discussing the rights and legal issues of net neutrality and its abolition, the literature on economic analysis of this issue is thin.”) and at 32 (“[T]he economics literature on net neutrality regulation is still in its early stages.”). 39 See, e.g., Christopher S. Yoo, “Network Neutrality, Consumers, and Innovation,” The University of Chicago Legal Forum (2008) at 184-5 (“[T]he stylized nature of the assumptions on which exemplifying theories tend to be based limit them to identifying what can happen and prevent them from providing any insight into the likelihood that the effects they identify will actually come to pass. Absent empirical support, exemplifying theory cannot provide the broad policy inferences needed to support ex ante categorical prohibitions. In other words, the mere fact that a particular practice may be harmful under certain circumstances does not justify banning that practice categorically.”) 122 -12- 22. The existing literature consists primarily of two types of research: (i) stylized, abstract theoretical models that do not closely resemble real-world markets; and (ii) speculative “discussion papers” that proffer hypotheses and suggestions for potential research, but do not contain rigorous analysis. Neither of these types of studies provides a basis for concluding that the proposed rules, or any similar rules, would have a net positive effect on consumer welfare, either in the short run or the long run. 23. The existing theoretical literature on network and spillover effects in two-sided markets represents a preliminary effort to isolate and understand the effects of particular market characteristics or policy parameters, holding other factors constant, as a first step towards a more complete understanding of real world markets that exhibit these characteristics. 24. Because of their highly stylized nature, the predictions of such theoretical models are extremely sensitive to underlying assumptions, in two senses. First, such models are, by nature, based on simplifying assumptions that abstract from the institutional complexities of the actual marketplace. Indeed, one purpose of theoretical modeling is to explore the robustness of various models to underlying assumptions (i.e., to assess the extent to which a model’s predictions are sensitive to the application of alternative, “more realistic,” assumptions), so as eventually to develop models that capture as many of the salient characteristics of the real world as mathematical technique and human comprehension will permit, and which, ideally, are amenable to meaningful empirical assessment. 25. The theoretical literature on network and spillover effects in two-sided markets has not reached this stage. For example, the leading theoretical paper cited by Professor Economides in his declaration is Economides and Tåg, which presents a model of network effects in two-sided markets based on a large number of simplifying assumptions, including (for 123 -13- example) (i) that content providers’ revenues are strictly proportional to their number of visitors, (ii) that there is neither innovation nor competition in the market for content provision, and (iii) that the value of the network to consumers is a strict multiple of the number of content providers from which they can choose. None of these assumptions is realistic: Content providers’ revenues are a function of many factors other than the number of visitors, the Internet content market is nothing if not competitive and innovative, and the value of an additional content web site to consumers is almost surely decreasing in the number of web sites. 40 26. Moreover, the Economides and Tåg model depends on the imposition of arbitrary constraints on the model’s structure. For example, in order to be able to achieve a unique mathematical solution, the authors impose conditions which (as Caves demonstrates) imply that the profits of platform providers (i.e., phone and cable companies) significantly exceed the profits of content and applications providers (i.e., search engines, online merchants, etc.), an assumption for which there is no apparent empirical basis. 41 27. Moreover, the model does not appear to have been tested for its robustness to these assumptions. Hence, even if the model showed an unambiguous gain from the imposition of net neutrality regulation (and, as discussed below, it does not), the only thing the Commission could reasonably infer from that finding is that net neutrality regulation would 40 This list is by no means exhaustive; as in any theoretical model, the model is designed to capture only a few aspects of “the real world,” with the rest being captured by “simplifying assumptions.” Two other noteworthy aspects in which the Economides and Tåg model differs from reality are (a) it assumes that broadband ISPs are either monopolists or Cournot duopolists and (b) it assumes that regulation takes the form of prohibiting ISPs from charging content providers any access fees, whereas the proposed rules appear to ban only fees on “enhanced or prioritized” access. See NPRM at ¶106. Arguably, however, the distinction is one of degree: The effect of the proposed non-discrimination rule would be to impose a zero-price rule (for upstream prices) on all ISP services except “basic Internet access.” 41 Specifically, under conditions that Economides and Tåg impose on their model, it can be shown that the ratio of content provider profits under net neutrality to platform operator profits under net neutrality must be strictly less than 0.4. See Kevin W. Caves, “Modeling the Welfare Effects of Net Neutrality Regulation: A Comment on Economides and Tåg” (March 2010) (available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1585254). 124 -14- increase economic welfare in the imaginary world of the Economides and Tåg model – not in the real world. 28. A second way in which such models rely on assumptions is in their choice of parameter values. In general, economic models involving price discrimination (including models of two-sided markets) do not generate unambiguous results: Discrimination is not, in general, “always harmful” or “always beneficial.” 42 The same holds for models of two-sided markets, where the welfare effects of different outcomes typically depend on the values assumed for various parameters, such as the magnitudes of upstream and downstream demand elasticities, and the size and nature of network effects. 43 29. Again, the Economides and Tåg paper provides an instructive example. As the authors forthrightly admit, the paper’s key results – that net neutrality regulation might improve social welfare – hold only “for some parameter values.” 44 Specifically, for net neutrality regulation to be welfare enhancing, it must be true that “a content provider values an additional consumer more than a consumer values an additional content provider” 45 – but, as Caves points out, not more than five times as much. 46 In addition, it must true that consumers and content providers are “jointly…sufficiently differentiated,” meaning that the product of a variable describing the degree of the differentiation in consumers’ valuation of Internet access, and another variable describing the degree of differentiation in content providers’ fixed start up 42 See, e.g., Hal R. Varian, “Price Discrimination and Social Welfare,” American Economic Review 75;4 (September 1985) 870-875 (demonstrating, in general, that price discrimination increases economic welfare when it results in increased output). 43 See e.g., Weisman and Kulick. 44 See Economides and Tåg at 1 (“When access is monopolized, for reasonable parameter ranges, net neutrality regulation (requiring zero fees to content providers) increases the total industry surplus as compared to the fully private optimum at which the monopoly platform imposes positive fees on content providers. However, there are also parameter ranges for which total industry surplus is reduced.”) (emphasis added). 45 See Economides and Tåg at 14. 46 See Caves at 6. 125 -15- costs, must fall within a certain range, which in turn depends on other parameters of the model. 47 The problem with such assumptions is not just that there is no empirical basis for choosing particular numerical values, but that the variables themselves lack any clear empirical analog in the real world. 48 30. Indeed, as even strong proponents of net neutrality regulation acknowledge, 49 the results of virtually all of the various theoretical models of net neutrality are dependent on assumptions about parameter values for which there is little or no empirical basis. The lack of an empirical foundation is nowhere more clear than with respect to the argument that imposing fees on content providers should be prohibited since the result might be to reduce investment and innovation in content – irrespective of the acknowledged fact that doing so could both reduce investment in networks and result in higher prices to downstream consumers (and hence lower broadband adoption). Lee and Wu, for example, who make the case for net neutrality regulation based on the benefits of “subsidizing content,” concede that Of course, for a given price level, subsidizing content comes at the expense of not subsidizing users, and subsidizing users could also lead to greater consumer adoption of broadband. It is an open question whether, in subsidizing content, the welfare gains from the invention of the next killer app or the addition of new content offset the price reductions consumers might otherwise enjoy or the benefit of expanding service to new users. 50 31. Just as striking (and admirable) is the candor of Harvard economist Glen Weyl, whose authoritative paper on two-sided markets has won plaudits even prior to formal publication. In response to an email query from Commission staff, Weyl responded: 47 See Caves at 6; see also Economides and Tåg at 15 (Assumption 2). See Caves at 6 (“[I]t is quite difficult to imagine how one might quantify this differentiation empirically, let alone establish that it is sufficiently large, either in absolute or relative terms.”) 49 See Economides and Tåg at 6-8, summarizing the results of several models yielding “ambiguous” results. 50 See Lee and Wu at 67 (emphasis added). 48 126 -16- I don’t know how much of a help I can be in answering your query [whether content providers paying for access will maintain their current quality of content] as I really have no empirical data to support any assertion I make, but perhaps I can provide a little bit of conceptual clarity about what elasticities are likely to matter, even if I don’t know their magnitudes. 51 Having “no empirical data” to support “any assertion I make” is fine for an academic, especially when he or she is forthright in identifying what follows as academic theorizing rather than demonstrated results. For the Commission to impose regulations on the basis of such theorizing, of course, is a different matter. 52 32. This brings us to the second primary class of existing research on net neutrality, network externalities and spillover effects, which consists of “discussion papers” (published or otherwise) that raise various issues and pose various hypotheses for further research, but do not apply rigorous methods (theoretical or otherwise) to achieve conclusive results. One example is the paper is by Lee and Wu, which is cited by the Commission for the proposition that broadband ISPs might be better off collectively if they did not charge content providers for access to subscribers, but that each broadband ISP acting individually might nevertheless have an incentive to levy fees, thus making things worse for all ISPs (and reducing economic 51 Memorandum from Chuck Needy to Marlene Dortch, February 12, 2010, Ex Parte Submission in Docket 09-191 (Email from Glen Weyl to Chuck Needy, January 29, 2010) (emphasis added). Weyl’s email goes on to identify some key empirical estimates and suggests that “it would be feasible with a little hard work to get a sense of them.” See also E. Glen Weyl, “A Price Theory of Multi-Sided Platforms” (October 2009; forthcoming, American Economic Review) (available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1324415) at 35 (“On the theoretical side, much remains to be done to understand pricing in networks more generally. For example my approach so far allow only extremely stylized models of competition of limited direct empirical relevance.”) 52 See Weisman and Kulick at 26-28 (reviewing the literature on two-sided market structures and concluding that “There is no basis for presuming that regulatory intervention to alter the price structure in such markets would prove to be welfare-enhancing. Put differently, regulatory intervention that alters the relative prices paid by the upstream and downstream sides of the market cannot be justified on grounds that it enhances economic welfare.”); see also Schwartz Declaration at 21-23 (providing further examples of the stylized assumptions typical of the two-sided markets literature and concluding, “In sum, the theoretical analysis of two-sided markets — while offering insights — is not yet settled, is quite complex, and the results are highly sensitive to conditions about which regulators are likely to have highly imperfect information.”) 127 -17- welfare). 53 This is an intriguing notion, which may well be worthy of both more rigorous theoretical modeling and, if testable hypotheses, an appropriate methodology, and the necessary data can be identified, empirical investigation. As researchers, we appreciate the value of intriguing theories, and hope that this one (and many others associated with this topic) will be fully pursued in the academic arena. Again, however, from the perspective of public policy, we do not believe that the Commission should make public policy decisions on the basis of imaginative theories that have not yet been formally modeled, let alone empirically demonstrated. 54 33. Similarly, the Economides and Hogendorn declarations, and the Van Schewick article (as it relates to the spillover effect of “general purpose technologies”), 55 as well as the bulk of the advocacy literature on these topics, are lacking in both theoretical rigor and 53 NPRM at ¶¶68-9 (citing Lee and Wu, and stating “This dynamic raises a collective action problem: Although it might be in the collective interest of competing broadband Internet access service providers to refrain from charging access or prioritization fees to content, application, and service providers, it is in the interest of each individual access provider to charge a fee, and given multiple providers, it is unlikely that access providers could tacitly agree not to charge such fees.”) 54 See Lee and Wu at 70-71. The authors state that “it seems implausible that Internet service providers have appropriate incentives to price according to the social optimum,” and describe several reasons why they believe this to be the case, including that “it might be individually optimal for one provider to defect and charge positive fees to content providers, although if all content providers charged such fees, the outcome would be worse than had all providers refrained from doing so.” (Emphasis added.) On the implications of this thesis, see also Hahn, Litan and Singer at 17 (suggesting that “[t]he Commission appears to be proposing a regulatory ‘work around’ for BSPs to escape antitrust scrutiny. According to its logic, if BSPs could somehow coordinate in the setting of prices for QoS, they would choose a zero price according to the NPRM; yet competition among BSPs drives them to set an inefficiently positive price. (Of course, if the jointly profit́maximizing price for QoS were zero, and if net neutrality allowed BSPs to achieve that allegedly optimal solution, then BSPs would favor net neutrality regulation! Alas, they do not.) Again, this basis for intervention is purely theoretical and is not recognized in regulatory economics as a solid basis for intervention.”) See also See Schwartz Declaration at 25 (“But no evidence has been offered that the supply of Internet content is deficient relative to that of broadband infrastructure, nor are there strong reasons to believe that this pattern would hold if charges to content providers were implemented.”) 55 See also Frischmann and Van Schewick at 423-6, and n. 168 for a discussion of general purpose technologies (“GPTs”). GPTs are technologies which generate externalities associated with their ability to increase productivity across industries. There is a theoretical argument for subsidizing research in and/or deployment of such technologies (though the practical obstacles to doing so effectively are formidable). Further, it is plausible that the Internet is a GPT. (See, e.g., National Broadband Plan at 29.) However, even if the Internet is a GPT, and even if the practical obstacles to creating efficient subsidy programs could be overcome, what would still not be clear is why it would make sense to subsidize some aspects of the Internet value chain (content, applications, etc.) at the expense of others (e.g., infrastructure). 128 -18- empirical support. 56 For the most part, these contributions contain the appropriate caveats, arguing that net neutrality regulation “might” improve social welfare “if” certain criteria are satisfied, or (alternatively) that unregulated markets “may” experience various forms of market failure. 57 Again, as researchers we value these and similar contributions, as the proffering of hypotheses and expression of informed opinion is an important part of the process of gaining a better understanding of these complex markets – even if we disagree with most or all of their hypothesized conclusions. The important point, however, is that the Commission should not mistake speculation, conjecture, hypothesis and argument for rigorous analysis, empirical evidence, or proof. 34. Finally, and perhaps most important, for all of the hypothesizing and discussion of how models based on network externalities and spillover effects provide support for net neutrality regulation, there is at least as much support for the opposite proposition. 58 It is 56 For another example, see Inimai M. Chettiar and J. Scott Holladay, Free to Invest: The Economic Benefits of Preserving Net Neutrality, New York University Institute for Policy Integrity, Report No. 4 (2010), at 9-10. As Weisman and Kulick point out (at 19), “The authors of this study fail to account for the fact that in twosided markets with network externalities, price discrimination actually would serve to mitigate the market failure that creates this positive network externality.”) 57 See, e.g, Hogendorn Declaration at 12 (“ISPs were to prioritize or degrade service for certain applications, certain websites, etc., there could be a reduction in both types of network effects. The question is whether an individual ISP would have incentives that do not align with social incentives. There are two reasons this might happen.”) (emphasis added); see also Van Schewick at 329 (“This paper also highlights important limitations of the ‘one monopoly rent’ argument, demonstrating previously unidentified exceptions that may be quite common in the Internet context, showing how exclusion may be a profitable strategy even if the excluding actor does not manage to drive its competitors from the complementary market, and proving that competition in the primary market may be insufficient to remove the ability and incentive to engage in exclusionary conduct.”) (emphasis added); see also Economides Declaration at 1 (“Broadband providers insist that imposing these new charges will greatly improve network investment, and thus these charges are beneficial. I argue that this is not the case. Possible higher revenues from discrimination may simply be returned to shareholders and not invested.”) (emphasis added). 58 For example, Economides and Tåg (at 7) acknowledge that models that use different assumptions yield different results. For example, they note that a paper by Cheng, Bandyopadhyay and Guo finds that consumer surplus may increase when content providers pay access fees, and explain that “The reason why the consumer surplus may increase is that it is always the more profitable content provider that pays for access and hence, gets preferential treatment. This benefits consumers of the more profitable content provider because congestion is reduced. However, it means a loss for consumers of the less profitable content provider that does not pay for preferential access, since there is an increase in the congestion costs.”); see also Mark A. Jamison and Janice A. Hauge, “Getting What You Pay For: Analyzing the Net Neutrality Debate,” (April 2008) (available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1081690) at 2 (“When only a single transmission speed is 129 -19- remarkable, for example, that the only robust result of the Economides and Tåg model – the only result that applies under all parameter values – is that consumers are always made worse off by net neutrality regulation. 59 35. To summarize, the evidence before the Commission demonstrates that broadband ISPs do not have generalized market power, and thus provides no support for the proposed regulations based on any traditional theory of market failure. Moreover, the speculative theories and stylized models put forth as potential justifications for regulation in the absence of market power provide no empirical – that is, no real world – foundation for concluding that the proposed regulations would increase rather than harm consumer welfare. 36. In 2007, the FTC declared that, “to date we are unaware of any significant market failure or demonstrated consumer harm from conduct by broadband providers.” 60 In our opinion, it remains the case there is no evidence, empirical, theoretical, or otherwise, to contradict this finding. If anything, the market for broadband services has continued to exhibit rapid innovation and increasing competition. Accordingly, there is no economic basis for a finding of market failure in the markets at issue. offered by the network provider, some low-value content providers choose to not produce because their potential advertising revenue would not cover their content production costs and their fixed costs. However, when a premium transmission speed is offered, some low-value sites that did not produce under the single speed scenario find it profitable to purchase the premium speed and so choose to enter the market. This results in an increase in the amount and diversity of content available for consumers. We consider this increase in the variety of content on the network to constitute innovation on the edges, which raises the value of the network.”). 59 See Economides and Tåg at 31 (“Comparisons between outcomes under the private equilibrium with two-sided pricing and the private equilibrium under net neutrality regulation indicated that a removal of net neutrality regulation would lead to a lower subscription price for consumers, but less content available due to an increase in fees to content providers. Content providers are worse off in the aggregate, while consumers are better off.”). 60 See FTC Report at 11. See also e.g., Gerald R. Faulhaber and David J. Farber, “The Open Internet: A Customer-Centric Framework,” Exhibit 1 to Comments of AT&T, Inc. in GN Docket Nos. 09-157, 09-51 (September 2009) at 1 (“Despite many colorful predictions about what evil doings ISPs might do in the future, we find that during ten years of experience without network neutrality regulations, there are just two incidents (the tiresomely familiar Madison River and Comcast cases) of any actual misbehavior by broadband ISPs. Two incidents – both remedied without the prescriptive rules proposed here - is not empirical evidence, nor are the many lurid but unrealized nightmare scenarios.”); see also Schwartz Declaration at 4 (“Beyond these a priori objections, and perhaps most important, is the striking lack of evidence for the postulated harms.”) 130 -20- III. THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS WOULD BAN BENEFICIAL PRACTICES AND OTHERWISE HARM ECONOMIC WELFARE 37. While there is no evidence of systematic market failures that might be remedied or ameliorated by the proposed rules, there is substantial basis for believing that the proposed regulations would harm competition, slow innovation, and reduce consumer welfare. 61 These likely harms are a function of the facts that (i) many of the practices that would be banned by the proposed regulations are presumptively welfare enhancing, (ii) the proposed “carve outs” for reasonable network management and “managed services” do not provide a basis for distinguishing between beneficial practices and harmful ones; and (iii) the litigation and regulatory uncertainty created by the regulations would slow innovation and have other unintended consequences. A. Most of the Conduct that Would Be Prohibited Is Presumptively Welfare Enhancing 38. Given the vagueness of the proposed “reasonable network management” and “managed services” exceptions, it is somewhat difficult to predict precisely which forms of conduct would be prohibited under the proposed regulations. However, one effect of the proposed non-discrimination rule is predictable and clear: To the extent the rule prohibits broadband ISPs from levying positive fees on upstream customers such as content providers, the 61 See, e.g., FTC Report at 11 (“Policy makers also should carefully consider the potentially adverse and unintended effects of regulation in the area of broadband Internet access before enacting any such regulation. Industry-wide regulatory schemes – particularly those imposing general, one-size-fits-all restraints on business conduct – may well have adverse effects on consumer welfare, despite the good intentions of their proponents. Even if regulation does not have adverse effects on consumer welfare in the short term, it may nonetheless be welfare-reducing in the long term, particularly in terms of product and service innovation. Further, such regulatory schemes inevitably will have unintended consequences, some of which may not be known until far into the future. Once a regulatory regime is in place, moreover, it may be difficult or impossible to undo its effects.”); see also Michael L. Katz, “Maximizing Consumer Benefits from Broadband,” Attachment B to Comments of Verizon Communications and Verizon Wireless Comments of Verizon Communications and Verizon Wireless, GN Docket 09-191 and WC Docket 07-52 (January 14, 2010) (hereafter Katz Declaration) at 15 (providing examples of the unintended negative consequences of regulation and concluding “It is well documented that even well-intentioned regulations can impose significant costs and often have harmful unintended consequences.”) 131 -21- upshot would be to raise prices to downstream subscribers and ultimately reduce broadband adoption – precisely the opposite of what the Commission is seeking to accomplish through its National Broadband Plan. 62 Unlike the conjectural benefits of “subsidizing content,” the substantial economic benefits of increased broadband adoption have been demonstrated in numerous empirical studies. 63 39. In addition to the direct effect of raising prices for broadband access above competitive levels, the proposed regulations would limit or proscribe (to a somewhat unpredictable degree) a variety of business practices that presumptively contribute to economic efficiency, 64 promote competition, 65 foster innovation, 66 increase investment, 67 promote product 62 See, e.g., Hemphill at 171-173 (discussing consumer benefits of positive pricing by network providers; see also Schwartz Declaration at 3 (“[P]ositive fees to content providers would result in lower prices to broadband consumers, advancing the Commission’s goal of expanding broadband penetration and use especially among economically disadvantaged groups.”) 63 See e.g., Robert W. Crandall and Hal J. Singer, “The Economic Impact of Broadband Investment,” (February 2010); see also Mark Dutz, Jonathan Orszag, and Robert Willig, The Substantial Consumer Benefits of Broadband Connectivity For U.S. Households, Internet Innovation Alliance, (July 2009); Robert Crandall, William Lehr, and Robert Litan, “The Effects of Broadband Deployment on Output and Employment: A Cross-sectional Analysis of U.S. Data,” The Brookings Institution: Issues in Economic Policy No. 6 (2007); Robert E. Litan, Great Expectations: Potential Economic Benefits to the Nation From Accelerated Broadband Deployment to Older Americans and Americans with Disabilities, New Millennium Research Council (2005); and, Austan Goolsbee, “The Value of Broadband and the Deadweight Loss of Taxing New Technology,” Contributions to Economic Analysis & Policy 5;1 (2006). By contrast, we are not aware of any rigorous empirical analyses of the benefits of “subsidizing content.” 64 See, e.g., Schwartz Declaration at 12-13 (noting that upstream pricing of QoS may be efficient because “[a] content provider is likely to be in a much better position than end users to know what performance requirements are needed for its service to work well [and] the transactions costs of contracting for such arrangements are likely to be much lower when dealing with a content provider than with a host of end users.”) 65 See e.g. Jamison and Hauge at 2. 66 See e.g., Crandall and Singer (2010) at 51-53 (discussing negative impact of net neutrality regulation on innovation and investment in both networks and Internet content); see also Schwartz Declaration at 2 (“Such payments can enable valuable and mutually beneficial arrangements, for example, by allocating scarce network capacity efficiently and avoiding the need for costly overbuilding, and by funding network enhancements desired by particular content providers.”); see also Katz Declaration at 13-15 (noting that the rules would, by design, freeze the current structure of the Internet in place and concluding that “it would not be in consumers’ interest to ossify the Internet.”) and at 30 (“[A] policy that triggered capacity investment in lieu of capacity management would be inefficient. Because a managed network can provide greater levels of service for a given amount of investment in physical infrastructure than can an unmanaged network, a managed network provides services at a lower unit cost. A second fundamental flaw with the argument that a policy that blocks network management can promote investment is that such a policy might actually reduce the overall amount of capacity investment. Restrictions on an operator’s management of its network will prevent the operator from producing as much output as possible from any given amount of physical plant and equipment. Because the physical plant cannot be used efficiently, the cost 132 -22- differentiation and consumer choice, 68 and enhance consumer welfare. 69 Yet, depending on how they are enforced, the proposed rules could, for example, inhibit content providers’ ability to enter into mutually beneficial (and economically efficient) exchanges with broadband ISPs; and, more broadly, limit the ability of all firms in the Internet value chain to engage in unilateral conduct, or to enter into contracts that would contribute to economic efficiency by reducing risk, lowering transactions costs, creating disincentives to opportunistic behavior, ensuring product quality, or creating consumer choice through product differentiation.70 B. The Reasonable Network Management and “Managed Services” Criteria Would Not Protect Consumer Welfare 40. The proposed rules would allow broadband ISPs to engage in “reasonable network management,” 71 and create an exception for “managed services.” 72 While any relief of capacity per unit of output is higher. These higher costs reduce the operator’s net return on investment and, consequently, the operator may invest less in physical capacity.”) 67 See Larry F. Darby, “The Informed Policy Maker’s Guide to Regulatory Impacts on Broadband Network Investment,” American Consumer Institute (2009) at 2 (“There is no reasoned, factual and analytical basis for concluding that network neutrality rules will not impact the rate of investment in existing broadband networks. Some rules will have more impact than others, but any rule that constrains the ability of firms to pursue business activities that may increase shareholder value will almost certainly affect their allocation of cash to different uses, including domestic network investment.”); see also Schwartz Declaration at 20 (“Claims that charges to content providers should be opposed because they would reduce incentives to invest in the edge either expressly or implicitly minimize the importance of incentives for investment in network infrastructure with no justification.”); see also Katz Declaration at 59 (“Free Press recently released a report in which the author claims to demonstrate that network neutrality regulations do not meaningfully harm investment incentives. Scrutiny of the study, however, reveals that it is fatally flawed and offers no such demonstration.”). 68 See e.g., Benjamin E. Hermalin and Michael L. Katz, “The Economics of Product-Line Restrictions with an Application to the Network Neutrality Debate,” Information Economics and Policy 19;2 (2007) 215-248, at 236 (“[C]onsumers have fewer applications available to them as a consequence [of net neutrality regulation].”); see also Everett M. Ehrlich, Jeffrey A. Eisenach, and Wayne A. Leighton, “The Impact of Regulation on Innovation and Choice in Wireless Communications,” Review of Network Economics 9;1 (2010). 69 See e.g., Katz Declaration at 11, describing the direct consumer benefits of traffic prioritization (“The fact that customers pay for the ability to differentiate between traffic in managing their own internal networks demonstrates that users want and value such differentiation.”) 70 See generally Christopher S. Yoo, “Beyond Network Neutrality,” Harvard Journal of Law and Technology 19;1 (Fall 2005) 1-77; see also Ehrlich, Eisenach and Leighton at 48 (“By making it more difficult to manage the risk of innovation and entry, prohibitions on network management would … slow innovation and reduce consumer choice, the opposite of what proponents of such regulation say they desire.”). 71 NPRM at ¶135 ff. 72 NPRM at ¶148 ff. 133 -23- from otherwise harmful regulations is better than none, these criteria are not founded in sound economic analysis and would not ensure that consumer welfare is protected. 41. Network management – i.e., traffic prioritization – benefits consumers and enhances economic efficiency by allowing ISPs to ensure the quality of Internet applications that require faster and more reliable delivery, such as video conferencing, interactive online gaming, and remote health care. Regulations that limit the ability of broadband providers to engage in such network management, without producing compensating benefits, would reduce economic efficiency and consumer welfare. 42. The regulations as proposed do not contain a consumer welfare standard, but instead offer a vague and ultimately circular definition, in which “reasonable network management” is defined as “reasonable steps to maintain the proper functioning of their networks.” 73 Such ambiguity is neither necessary nor constructive: Broadband ISPs should be permitted to engage in business practices generally, and network management practices in particular, that do not harm consumer welfare. Further, the burden of proof, in competitive markets such as the ones at issue here, should be on the Commission to demonstrate that a particular network management practice would harm economic welfare, not on broadband ISPs to prove it is beneficial. 73 See NPRM at ¶140 (“Finally, we propose that broadband Internet access service providers may take other reasonable steps to maintain the proper functioning of their networks. We include this catch-all for two reasons. First, we do not presume to know now everything that providers may need to do to provide robust, safe, and secure Internet access to their subscribers, much less everything they may need to do as technologies and usage patterns change in the future. Second, we believe that additional flexibility to engage in reasonable network management provides network operators with an important tool to experiment and innovate as user needs change.”); see also Katz Declaration at 4 (“Network management can facilitate more efficient use of capacity and can protect consumers from harmful traffic and applications. However, the proposed rules would create an uncertain regulatory environment that would discourage efficient network management. For example, the proposed rules allow for ‘reasonable’ practices without defining reasonable. Moreover, any definition of reasonable would almost certainly either be vague or would draw bright lines that in important instances lead to outcomes that harmed consumer welfare….”). 134 -24- 43. Similarly, the NPRM’s discussion of managed services contains no suggestion that any exceptions to the proposed regulations for such services (however they ultimately are defined) would be tied to a substantive economic welfare standard. Indeed, there is no basis for believing that the exceptions suggested in the NPRM – for telemedicine, smart grid applications and eLearning – are based on any type of either technical or economic analysis. 74 Thus, the managed-services exemption, as proposed in the NPRM, is completely untethered from any concept of consumer welfare or economic efficiency. Indeed, to the extent the managedservices exemption served as a regulatory safe harbor for “nascent” services, it risks actually discouraging the widespread adoption and commercialization of new and innovative services – which, by the very virtue of their success, would grow out of the regulatory safe harbor that made them possible in the first place, and hence find themselves subjected to costly or even prohibitive regulation. 75 C. Enacting the Proposed Regulations Would Raise Regulatory Risk and Harm Investment and Innovation 44. The proposed regulations are ambiguous and poorly drafted. As noted above, the NPRM provides no practical guidance as to what the Commission would consider to be “reasonable” network management, or what services would be deemed to fall within the “managed services” exception, 76 but these are only two of many uncertainties companies would face if the rules were adopted. For example, the proposed regulations fail to provide a practical 74 See NPRM at ¶150. It is not at all clear why eLearning applications, for example, would be more likely to “require or benefit from enhanced quality of service rather than traditional best-effort Internet delivery” than, say, online gaming or corporate video conferencing. 75 See Katz Declaration at 44 (“Even if the Commission does create a managed services exception, there is a very real danger that this policy will impose service qualifications that result in the rules’ becoming a form of success tax.”) 76 See Katz Declaration at 4 (“Although it is vital to the promotion of consumer welfare that network providers continue to be permitted to develop and offer their own services that may be thought of as managed or specialized, the NRPM’s managed services exception is vague and unworkable. Moreover, it cannot reasonably be expected to substitute for the sound analysis that is missing from the NPRM.”) 135 -25- means of distinguishing between content, applications and service providers, on the one hand, and “subscribers” (many of whom also generate content), on the other. 77 To the extent regulatory uncertainty prevents parties from engaging in efficiency-enhancing conduct, or entering into efficiency-enhancing contracts, or increases the risks that such conduct or contracts will be voided (or even penalized) by subsequent Commission decisions, firms are less likely to engage in the investment or innovation that such conduct and contracts would otherwise have enabled. 78 IV. CASE-BY-CASE APPLICATION OF EXISTING STANDARDS IS THE BEST APPROACH 45. In paragraph 103 of the NPRM, the Commission identifies the challenge before it with respect to banning discrimination as follows: “The key issue we face is distinguishing socially beneficial discrimination from socially harmful discrimination in a workable manner.” 79 In the accompanying footnote 226, the Commission suggests that, by “workable,” it means a rule that would “limit how network operators can discriminate in a manner that [1] prevents them from fully exploiting market power in ways that seriously harm users, and [2] does not prevent them from using discrimination in ways that greatly benefit users.”80 Based on these passages, the Commission appears to recognize the tension between what economists refer to as “Type I” and “Type II” error (i.e., between a rule that deters too little 77 See Katz Declaration at 41 (“What if a broadband Internet access service provider required content, application, or service providers to become subscribers in order to receive enhanced or prioritized access? Would the broadband Internet access service provider then be allowed to charge them different prices for different services? If not, whom could it charge?”) 78 See, e.g., FTC Report at 11 (“Industry-wide regulatory schemes – particularly those imposing general, one-size-fits-all restraints on business conduct – may well have adverse effects on consumer welfare, despite the good intentions of their proponents. Even if regulation does not have adverse effects on consumer welfare in the short term, it may nonetheless be welfare-reducing in the long term, particularly in terms of product and service innovation.”) 79 See NPRM at ¶103. 80 See NPRM at n. 226 (citing Peha at 645). Note the reference in this quotation to market power, the existence of which, as noted above, the Commission neither asserts nor demonstrates, and which, as we explained above, does not generally exist in the markets at issue. 136 -26- harmful behavior, and one that deters too much beneficial behavior); and, further, to acknowledge (correctly) that the ultimate objective is to minimize the combined welfare losses associated with both types of errors. 46. The Commission proposes further to adjudicate the key question of which practices constitute “reasonable network management” (and are hence permitted) through a “case-by-case” approach, stating that “the novelty of Internet access and traffic management questions, the complex nature of the Internet, and a general policy of restraint in setting policy for Internet access service providers weigh in favor of a case-by-case approach.” 81 This approach, too, is sensible, as it suggests that the Commission recognizes that distinguishing between beneficial behaviors and harmful ones is likely to be both analytically difficult and factually complex. 47. However, the Commission proposes to apply its case-by-case approach in a prohibitive rather than permissive fashion: That is, all “discriminatory” behavior that is not found to be permitted (on a case-by-case basis) would be banned. As we have explained above, the conduct potentially covered by the proposed regulations is far more likely to be beneficial than harmful. Accordingly, the Commission’s proposed approach is precisely the reverse of what the economic evidence supports, and virtually guarantees far more Type II error than is consistent with economic efficiency and consumer welfare.82 81 See NPRM at ¶134. See, e.g., Weisman and Kulick at 22 (“There are two strong reasons to believe that, at this point in time, specific regulation of vertical integration by ISPs into the Internet content space will be subject to substantial Type I error. First, monopoly power in one market is a necessary condition for anticompetitive effects in almost all models of anticompetitive vertical integration. As discussed above, competition is becoming increasingly intense in the ISP market and there is scant evidence that, as a general matter, broadband providers possess true monopoly power. Second, ISPs generally serve regional markets whereas content markets are often national or international…. On the other hand, at this point in time, there is little risk of Type II error.”) 82 137 -27- 48. While we agree that a case-by-case approach to enforcement is appropriate for the conduct and issues addressed in the NPRM, 83 the Commission should adopt a permissive rather than a prohibitive approach: Conduct should be considered permitted unless, after a casespecific adjudication of the facts, it can be shown to be harmful, on net, to economic efficiency and consumer welfare. 84 That is, rather than being presumptively unlawful, network management practices and other “discriminatory” behavior should be presumptively lawful. 49. In assessing the lawfulness of specific conduct, the Commission should apply existing, generally agreed-upon standards for the evaluation of market power, market failure, and consumer welfare – standards such as those implicit in the FTC-Department of Justice Merger Guidelines, 85 the Office of Management and Budget’s Circular A-4, 86 the FTC’s Policy Statements on and Deception 87 and Unfairness, 88 and, more broadly, the pro-competition, proconsumer doctrines that have developed under the Sherman Act and other antitrust statutes.89 83 See Katz Declaration at 36 (“Case-by-case application of antitrust laws is the best way to deal with concerns that, in some circumstances, network management can be used to harm competition. Such an approach is the only way to block the use of these practices when they harm competition and consumers while at the same time ensuring that service providers can engage in these practices in the many instances where they benefit consumers and promote competition and the achievement of other public-interest goals.”) 84 See Ehrlich, Eisenach and Leighton at 48 (“On their face, the existing proposals would presumptively prohibit a wide range of business practices. Indeed, taken at face value, they would appear to prohibit a wide variety of practices about which even regulation advocates have expressed no concerns. Moreover, the only limiting principle regulation advocates concede is technical feasibility, a standard which effectively precludes a weighing of benefits against costs to maximize consumer welfare.”) 85 See U.S. Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, Horizontal Merger Guidelines (rev. April 8, 1997) (available at http://www.justice.gov/atr/public/guidelines/horiz_book/hmg1.html). 86 See Office of Management and Budget, Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis (September 17, 2003) (available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf). 87 See Federal Trade Commission, FTC Policy Statement On Deception, Appended to Cliffdale Associates, Inc., 103 F.T.C. 110, 174 (1984) (available at http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/policystmt/ad-decept.htm). 88 Federal Trade Commission, FTC Policy Statement On Unfairness, Appended to International Harvester Co., 104 F.T.C. 949, 1070 (1984) (available at http://www.ftc.gov/bcp/policystmt/ad-unfair.htm) see also15 U.S.C. § 45(n). 89 See generally Brito and Ellig at 7-37; see also Joseph Farrell and Philip J. Weiser, “Modularity, Vertical Integration, and Open Access Policies: Towards a Convergence of Antitrust and Regulation in the Internet Age,” Harvard Journal of Law and Technology 17;1 (Fall 2003) at 134 (“In developing its regulatory strategy for new environments such as broadband where price regulation is absent, the FCC should define more clearly when to restrict a firm’s conduct — for instance, only after exclusionary conduct is demonstrated, where it seems probable, or where it would do the most harm. Antitrust enforcers normally address exclusionary conduct by a single firm 138 -28- 50. Beyond recommending that the Commission give weight to these general substantive standards, we do not make specific recommendations for how the Commission should go about implementing a case-by-case approach. 90 We do note, however, that a number of parties have recommended various aspects of such approaches. For example, Professor Neuchterlein (among many others) recommends application of antitrust law by the traditional antitrust enforcement agencies; 91 Drs. Hahn, Litan and Singer suggest applying “existing FCC procedures for resolving discrimination in other contexts”; 92 and, Google and Verizon jointly recommend creation of technical advisory committees to ensure the Commission’s assessments of individual business practices are grounded in a sound technical understanding. 93 Others have pointed out that any concerns about the adequacy of competition can best be addressed by taking steps to promote competition (e.g., by increasing the amount of spectrum available for licensed use). 94 We offer these examples not because we have concluded any of them represent the best or only approach supported by the economic evidence, but rather as a demonstration that there are viable alternatives to the prohibitive ex ante regulations proposed in the NPRM. only ex post, once such conduct has been proven. Regulators, by contrast, often act to avoid vertical competitive harms before they occur, but do not always explain how their actions fit with ICE or antitrust policy more generally. The FCC must provide such an explanation if it decides to impose an open access requirement on broadband platforms.”) (emphasis added). 90 Professor Kahn qualifies his approval of the case we make here for non- or de-regulation of Internet access by emphasizing the principle that forbearance from direct economic regulation transfers responsibility for the public interest to competition protected by the antitrust laws. In particular, in the present context, he would emphasize the prohibition of unfair methods of competition (or unfairly exclusionary practices) as defined in Section 5 of the Federal Trade Commission Act, preferably exercised in cooperation with the antitrust agencies. 91 See Jonathan E. Nuechterlein, “Antitrust Oversight of an Antitrust Dispute: An Institutional Perspective on the Net Neutrality Debate,” Journal on Telecommunications and High Technology Law 7 (2009) 20-65. 92 See Hahn, Litan and Singer at 20. 93 Google and Verizon Joint Submission on the Open Internet, GN Docket No. 09-191; WC Docket No. 07-52 (January 14, 2010). As the Commission notes in the National Broadband Plan, evaluating competition in application and content markets is particularly challenging. See National Broadband Plan at 52 (“Applications, content and the services they enable are bundled, sold, priced and monetized in many different ways. The nature and intensity of competition in applications and content varies tremendously and must be evaluated on a case-bycase basis.”) 94 See, e.g., Faulhaber and Farber at 33. 139 -29- V. 51. CONCLUSION The regulations proposed in the NRPM are unsupported by the economic evidence. There is no economic evidence, even in the abstract, of generalized market power or systematic market failure in the markets at issue. There is no economic basis for believing the practices at issue are reducing economic efficiency or consumer welfare. There is no empirical evidence whatsoever that consumers have been harmed in the past. 52. There is strong economic evidence that the regulations would inhibit, or prohibit, efficiency enhancing conduct, thereby reducing competition, slowing innovation, deterring investment and ultimately reducing consumer welfare. 53. To the extent the types of conduct addressed in the NPRM may, in isolated circumstances, have the potential to harm competition or consumers, the Commission and other regulatory bodies, including the Federal Trade Commission, have the ability to deter or prohibit such conduct on a case-by-case basis, through the application of existing doctrines and procedures. Hence, the approach advocated in the NPRM is not necessary to achieve whatever economic benefits may be associated with prohibiting harmful discrimination on the Internet. 140 -30- Respectfully submitted, Jerry Brito, J.D. Mercatus Center, George Mason University Alfred E. Kahn, Ph.D. National Economic Research Associates Martin Cave, D.Phil. Warwick Business School, University of Warwick Wayne A. Leighton, Ph.D. Francisco Marroquín University Robert W. Crandall, Ph.D. The Brookings Institution Larry F. Darby, Ph.D. American Consumer Institute and George Mason University Law School Robert Litan, Ph.D. The Brookings Institution and the Kaufman Foundation Glen O. Robinson, J.D. University of Virginia Everett M. Ehrlich, Ph.D. ESC Company Hal J. Singer, Ph.D. Navigant Economics LLC and Georgetown University School of Business Jeffrey A. Eisenach, Ph.D. Navigant Economics LLC and George Mason University Law School Vernon L. Smith, Ph.D. Chapman University, Economic Science Institute Jerry Ellig, Ph.D. Mercatus Center, George Mason University William Taylor, Ph.D. National Economic Research Associates Henry Ergas Economist Timothy J. Tardiff, Ph.D. Advanced Analytical Consulting Group David Farber Carnegie Mellon University Leonard Waverman, Ph.D. Haskayne School of Business, University of Calgary Gerald R. Faulhaber, Ph.D. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Robert W. Hahn, Ph.D. University of Manchester and University of Oxford Dennis L. Weisman, Ph.D. Kansas State University *Affiliations listed for identification purposes only.