FROM SUBJECT 03m Dep'arimem Mi?i's?t?re de's Finances Canada Ganada A . . . NOTE DE SERVEGE ?mu .Iilinis'i'alf SECRET . . - - BM?IIrI-tfufiuiu-Iaa 3 Assoc.- DIM 3 Paul Ro?ho?n' Rob. ert? - Nquuza?Enpc Yaw-?le FEB 2 201a Nick. Leswick . Interprovinci?i Wiirkers in the Alberta Labour Market and Implications for M?asures of Employment in Alberta ?This 1.1131110 i?fbrma?ong issue and summary We use pcrsonal tax.- daia tim- TI Gama! Iizca'me Tax and Bene?t Ream-7'2 and Hie T4 Statement ofRemunemiion Raid Slip to mgasure the. of itinerant intiaip?m??izial 0 Alberta he'sth a wuikfarce-?f marerihan. 15010.09 i?'n?ra?t i-nierpravi-npi?liworkers in12?0r13== h??i'f es?ma?icd to' Waive? a?d'gas 5631012; the: ??st?imatedai'?nerant? war-Hard: basim?re-tliaii dd?iibled 2903,. a Wa'b?eliwe that'the mum bfit?ieraht workersm Mir-1mm pro?ncas explamsa?m di??renc?? Of 56,1294 in measur?s?. 0f the 611311357111 Employment in Alberta batman the Labout?ForGe Survey (LE-S.) and: Sway?O'f?mplayment; Payroll and since 2014? - . The departure emf-these i?herant workeis should bene?t the Alberta economy. by dispersing the nega'tiVe im?a?Cts of the shock to other provinces. Background Numberofliiziei'a'm ?WOric?erS A {berm Oil .?ands in have to a large liege-cheer"; built mid, Operatedby an. itinerant e?fperson?s who cyclic between temporatx'wo?? camps wrasidences in and their pc?nangnt residences glse?wherez The work cycle of an itinerant warkerin Gil :3de gas sector- straight of work- in northern Alberta with :a respite to their 1113.66 of pennanent' residence in bat-ween .f?Or Lorie Week _to ten days. ADMz-N'ick. (3691-33-46.) Directorz? PhilIKing (3596609) unauui Document released under the Access to Information A or Document divulgu? en vertLI de la La sur acc?s a" linformatron -2- Welmeasulelhe level of intaprovindal employment by income tax dateohtained TaxandBene?tRem Paid slip. Our approach follows a similarmethodology employedhy Statistics Canadato obtain estimates oflhe up to 2011. Speci?cally, individuals an identi?ed as incomein - I ofalltax ?lers whoeemedineomeinAlberls. 'I?hisisaninel?easeof1396?'om 137,053wolka'sin2012, numbaofintelptovincial workel'shasmore?lan doubled lO-years." Within o'ur es?matedpopulation of workers, we believe?nt asmany as 30,000 1i.e.,petsonswho stal'tof?ieyearbefmemovingto Of?lneand are Source OfAlberta?sIrinerant World'orce account ofintelprovineial mmzols. In 2013, 55,000 workers came from B.C.-and 37,000 came from the Atlantic Provinces (see Chalt Amang the Atlantic Newfoundland supplies the lergestnumba' I WWMAMGOB). - 000002 Documen Access to Documen' r- Lemur/3.. - 9f fbHeWed by Neva Seetia (.1 1,839),New BrunsWick. (10522.7) and than; Athena's lhterprot?rincial source"mvinte Irineraet Wager: in the 00' and Gas Seem:- Aecetdingzte? data ?bre 20.0.9, the largest ef interprevineia'l empleyees were empleyediih (13 een'suuetien (2)?0i1end gas extraction and suppeneeti?ties and feed services. and {retail trade With the exception ef?ireta?irade and Services, aJe-igei?eant ember efjntetprevineiel wDrke??-i?- me Iikely either directly or indirectly tied to theeil and gas Ewen-the ferdeT in Alberta has tie; to the ei'l 3&5. Seeing: as .ejanderS.in places" been entieiegjnterpmvine'ie] werkers-wim higher A130, "en addi?enaiE?E-7% afieteiprovineia] workers. in RUDE-were emeleyed in scienti?e, am] fe?hi-?ee?l' se'rvieeS sector, which is also closely linked to me. 01"] "arid gas product-ion. Altege'?ler, in" 2009 it appears that at least 50% 'efinterpre?ineial wefliers. were in same Way tie? to Ltheeil and sector. . By from 'the 2009 date to our 2013 database, itis liker that between 70,000 and gegalqpepula?en ef workers in were einpleyai in the ween-[jetien' eh'd em and gas Set-?bre and other sectors that Gupp'eft 0i] and gas preduc?en3. 2 Most likely; employers of Jews-skilled laeom in Alba-Ia, such as in die-ToedjserViQBS-iniies'jfy, ?ieh?eged {ti-?ll 'leibomssherteges {In-ough?ie lemperaxy- foreign worker program though some efs?e?egemras else ?lled-hy?inlerpre?iheial workers. . . 3 Dim limiigl'?p?il?ni'ipm ahijiqr-w database. {Herder-Io 'ohteip ?ife?petien-on- which mterpiq?riqcieifempleym work-in, we linked Ihe erupleye'r infen?e?en??'om {heir-'4 database In the leg-?ate?nse where empieyers ee?f?repen the industry they opemfeiin awarding in the M1335: - coding sy?em: Using-this method,'we det'ennine that at least-?52900 ihierprevhciel'xmrkers worked in the 000003 Ihtejgpr?gvinci a1 be; riSk' of 1'0 Sing their aS'inveS't?ment by oil Citmjia?iw in savanna and production and dev?lop?iergt 0f crude oil r?soumes 'dealines. Impaci an Hammad A sharp decline in 'i?texpro?i?ci?ll- ?ag '?a?plgins the sharp differencg in emp'layment ?ewel?ggme?ta'th?t Canada sources of labour market information, SEPH and the-LFS; 5 is-a payroll "a??i?y??i?nd__which counts interproyincia] they earn income. 0 The LES i521 survey mii??teredmhbu workers. as being in province a?g?d?i?hdg'?ier?f?rm would not count intefpm?h?i?l workers as As 3119? in Chart-.25, M131 GfLEInpiag?m?ht-ih fell 53' almost 64,_000 from Dee?mber 2014 to Q??b?f?oi 5-, whereas nae LF-S- it falli'by onjw,snn.. This is shc'aWn-lin Tahiti 1 belbw; . my; {gamut-am- 2min_quMS hhm?s Nu?pu j??us ?aqma whim; g?n? ngg?i'jyan: pains Ones laid off, workers :90 gp seeking in hbme pro?Vinch; and unless may ?nd worm: chmgeata. as. cun?truc?on and'o? and gas no] all-ampli?ers se1f~report 1h: industry- they?nperate: in on form";- mr _d acid- d?ie?s?gt?rs??a] 'sunpfpifl'b?lah?? pm?pctiyp, WI: - . 000004 Document released under the Access to Information Act Document divulou? en vertu de la Low sur 1 acce's 3 [Information -5- unemployed in that province. Indeed, 43% ofthe 2013 workforce cfitinerant workers, or about 74,000 workers, hailed ?om movinccs with a 2015 unemployment rate that wasahove?le national avenge?. Album?3.0. by. 29,000 between Dccunbcr 2014 and Gotcha- 2015. Worked-3:1ch 18-24madcup about ofthe ofi?ta'puvincial workem in Alba-min 2013 imd?alSo endgas Weestimatethata?tleast 18-24hnil?omth?e Atlantic provinces (which accounts for 3.2% of the labor force ofpersom ag'od 18-24 in those provinces) where youth ratcs in 2015 were particl?arly high, ranging ?om 16.1%inNovaSOOtiam 19.4% 150M Oahu-2015 [urbane-harm? I Dl?aucc Jim 56,-22. Consul-ammo) - 56,194 4 AccoudhgtoaStatistics Canndasudy?onlzou 000005 Document released under the Access to Information Act 0 Document divulgu? en vertu de la Low sur I acc?s a lmformatnon I -5- ofItinerant Wanker: on4lbertaEconongy insofarastheir omen-wise '731w the rental manket may be and visgless to weigh on- comumption Iikelyspauin?neirhome ssh?a) sz1u)un