©THE ELWAY POLL 15 AUG 16 15 AUGUST 16 Clinton, Inslee Hold Double-digit Leads in WA; Neither One Over 50% Both Hillary Clinton and Jay Inslee have double-digit leads over their Republican opponents in the new Elway Poll conducted last week, but neither Democrat has crested 50%. The Presidential race is discussed on page 2. The race for Governor appears frozen. The results of the August survey are exactly the same as they were in April and only 1-2 points different from the Primary Election results. Inslee led Bill Bryant by a 48% to 36% margin in both April and August. He won the Primary by 49% to 38%. The underlying dynamics of the race have not changed much either. Party identi ication is certainly key to Inslee’s electoral strength. Inslee had 92% of the support of Democrats and Bryant had 83% of the Republican support. Bryant led among Independents 39-31%. Inslee is polling 10 points above the proportion of Democrats in this survey. Last January he was only 4 points ahead of the number of Democrats. Bryant is polling 12 points above the proportion of Republicans. In January he was 8 points ahead of the Republican identi iers. The advantage is to Inslee because Democrats held a 12-point party identi ication advantage in this survey (38% to 24% Republican). Another key to this election is incumbency. Elections are almost always largely a referendum on the incumbent. Even though this year’s electorate has been cast as highly dissatis ied with the status quo, there has not been a strong constituency to turn Inslee out. His job performance ratings remain underwater, where they have been his entire term (p.3). However, they improved by a net +10 points since the irst of the year: • In December, 39% rated him “excellent” or “good” vs. 58% VOTE FOR GOVERNOR “only fair” or “poor.” (Net –19); • In August, 43% said “excellent” or “good” vs. 52% “only fair” or “poor.” (net –9). Job ratings can be unreliable as an election guide. Among those who said he is doing an “only fair” job as governor, he led Bryant by 41-39%. In an earlier survey, 55% said he was doing an “only fair” or “poor” job, but while 71% of the same voters rated is job performance as “satisfactory” or better (July 2015). One new factor in the race is Donald Trump. By a net margin of –33%, respondents said they would be more likely to vote against than for a candidate who endorsed Trump. The margin for an endorsement of Clinton was –7%. VOTE FOR PRESIDENT Staying away from Trump appears to be the smart move. However, 38% of these same respondents would be likely to vote against a Republican candidate who refused to endorse Trump. 12% were likely to vote for such a candidate, for a net of –26%. Further illustrating the tightrope Bryant must walk, among voters undecided in the governor’s race: • 38% would vote against a candidate who endorsed Trump (10% would vote for that candidate); but • 21% would vote against a Republican who did not endorse Trump (10% would favor that candidate). © THE ELWAY POLL 2016 Excerpts may be quoted with attribution. ©THE ELWAY POLL 15 AUG 16 Clinton Leads Trump by 43% to 24% Washington has not voted for a Republican for President since 1984 and, as things stand today, voters do not intend to break that streak. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by a 43-24% margin in a new Elway Poll completed over the weekend. Among the most likely voters, Clinton’s lead stretched to 45-24%. Likely voters are de ined here as voters who have voted in at least 2 of the last 4 elections. They comprise 70% of this sample. Libertarian Gary Johnson had 7% among all voters, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein got 4%; 16% were undecided and 6% said they may not vote for president this time. Washington has a history of support for third party candidates: Ross Perot got 19% of the vote here in 1992 and 9% in 1996; John Anderson got 11% in 1980, and who can forget that the Bull Moose party won the state in 1912. Clinton also had an edge in enthusiasm, although neither candidate was too impressive on that score. Asked whether their support for their candidate was “enthusiastic,” moderate,” “reluctant” or they were voting for the “lesser of two evils,” Clinton’s supporters were considerably more positive than Trump’s. Among Clinton’s supporters: 37% were enthusiastic while 24% were reluctant (5%) or voting for the “lesser evil” (19%). Of Trump’s voters: 33% were voting for the “lesser evil” and only 25% were enthusiastic supporters. Overall, 16% of all respondents were enthusiastic Clinton supporters , while 6% of respondents were enthusiastic Trump supporters. Clinton’s strongest support came from: • Democrats (86% vs. 2% for Trump, 4% for Stein and 2% who may not vote); • Women (50% vs. 17% for Trump); • King County (55% vs. 13% for Trump); • Voters with post-graduate educations (62% vs. 14% for Trump). Trump’s strongest support came from: • Republicans (60% vs. 6% for Clinton, 7% for Johnson, and 8% LEVEL OF ENTHUSIASM who may not vote); • Men without college degrees (37% vs. 25% Clinton); • Eastern Washington (37% vs. 29% for Clinton). DOWN-BALLOT IMPACT Few pols or pundits expect Trump to carry Washington state. The bigger question here and elsewhere is the potential down ballot impact of the presidential race. We asked voters if they would be more likely to vote for or against a state candidate who endorsed Clinton or Trump. The net effect of an endorsement of either remains negative, but the overall impact has decreased slightly for both candiDOWN BALLOT IMPACT OF ENDORSEMENT dates since last April: 59% said an endorsement of Clinton would make a difference. The net impact was –7% (+26% / -33%) compared to 67% in April, with a net of -9% (+29% / -38%). Meanwhile 67% said an endorsement of Trump would make a difference. The net impact was –33% (+17 / -50%), compared to 74% in April, with a net of –36% (+19% / -55%). Some 38% said they would vote against a Republican candidate for state of ice who did not endorse Trump.  2 ©THE ELWAY POLL Sample Profile 500 registered voters, selected at random from registered voter lists in Washington state, were interviewed August 9-13 2016 by live, professional interviewers. 36% of the interviews were conducted on cell phones. The margin of sampling error is ±4.5% at the 95% level of confidence. This means, in theory, had this same survey been conducted 100 times, the results would be within ±4.5% of the results reported here at least 95 times. REGION Seattle ....................................................................... 11% King County ............................................................... 19% Pierce/Kitsap ............................................................. 15% No. Puget Sound ....................................................... 17% Western WA .............................................................. 17% Eastern WA ............................................................... 21% GENDER Male ........................................................................... 49% Female ....................................................................... 51% VOTE HISTORY 0-1 Votes cast in previous 4 elections ....................... 30% 2 or more Votes cast in previous 4 elections .......... 70% 15 AUG 16 Uptick for Inslee Job Rating Governor Inslee’s overall job performance rating ticked up to its best mark since July 2014, with 43% of respondents saying he is doing a “excellent” (7%) or “good” job (36%) vs. 52% saying “only fair” (28%) or “poor” (24%). His ratings for all 5 measures remain in negative territory, but all 5 were better than they were in January. His overall rating was higher than any of the 4 speci ic measures. OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE ONLY FAIR+ POOR EXCELLENT + GOOD PARTY ID Democrat ................................................................... 38% Republican ................................................................. 24% Independent ............................................................... 38% AGE 18-35 ......................................................................... 11% 36-50 ......................................................................... 21% 51-64 ......................................................................... 37% 65+............................................................................. 29% EDUCATION High School ............................................................... 13% Some College / Voc-Tech.......................................... 27% College Degree .......................................................... 39% Graduate Degree ....................................................... 29% INCOME $50,000 or less .......................................................... 21% $50 to 74,000............................................................. 18% $75 to 99,000 ............................................................. 18% $100,000+.................................................................. 26% No Answer ................................................................. 17% MANAGING STATE GOVERNMENT ONLY FAIR+ POOR EXCELLENT + GOOD PROVIDING LEADERSHIP TO THE LEGISLATURE ONLY FAIR+ POOR EXCELLENT + GOOD The Elway Poll The Elway Poll is an independent, non-partisan analysis of public opinion in Washington and the Northwest, published since 1992. PROPRIETARY QUESTIONS: Each quarter, space is reserved in the questionnaire for organizations to insert their own, proprietary questions. Sponsors are thus able to ask their own questions for a fraction of the cost of a full survey. Results, with demographic crosstabulations, are provided within three days after the interviews are completed. CROSSTABS: A full set of cross-tabulation tables is available for $100. The Elway Poll ARTICULATING A VISION OF THE FUTURE OF WA ONLY FAIR+ POOR EXCELLENT + GOOD REPRESENTING WA TO THE COUNTRY AND WORLD ONLY FAIR+ POOR EXCELLENT + Seattle, WA 206/264-1500 FAX: 264-0301 epoll@elwayresearch.com GOOD 3