DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G Neighborhood Recovery Rates Growth continues through 2016 in New Orleans neighborhoods Allison Plyer, The Data Center Released: August 15, 2016 Eleven years after Katrina, more than half of New Orleans’ 72 neighborhoods have recovered over 90 percent of the occupied households they had before the levees failed. On August 29, 2005 Hurricane Katrina struck and the levees protecting the city of New Orleans failed. More than 40 of the city’s 72 neighborhoods were flooded, many with more than 10 feet of water.1 All told, 107,379 New Orleans homes were flooded and 26,965 sustained wind damage. 2 Eleven years after Katrina, there are 20 neighborhoods that now have a larger number of active addresses than they did prior to the levee breaches. Thirteen of these neighborhoods largely did not flood because they are in the “sliver by the river” or on the west bank. But, seven of these are east bank neighborhoods that did flood. Moreover, greater than half (40 of New Orleans’ 72 neighborhoods) have recovered over 90 percent of the population they had before the levees failed. Only four neighborhoods have less than half the population they had prior to Katrina, including three public housing sites that have been demolished to make way for new mixed–income housing: B.W. Cooper, Florida Development, and Iberville. The Lower Ninth Ward, which was the most heavily damaged neighborhood of all, also has less than half the population in had prior to Katrina. The Lower Ninth Ward is bordered by canals to the west and north, and the surge of water that hit the Lower Ninth Ward was so strong it knocked homes completely off their foundations. Overall, New Orleans continues to grow 11 years after Hurricane Katrina. The most recent population data from the U.S. Census Bureau are population estimates for 2015. According to these estimates, between 2010 and 2015, the New Orleans population grew 13 percent, resulting in a ranking of 41st on population growth out of 714 U.S. cities with populations of 50,000 or more. 3 Even newer data from Valassis Inc. on households receiving mail suggests the population grew another 1.6 percent from 2015 to 2016. All told, New Orleans households receiving mail have increased by 22,523 since June 2010, with fully 67 of 72 neighborhoods experiencing gains. Topping this list is the Central Business District which added 1,818 residences since 2010. Little Woods and Central City added 1,801 and 1,668 residences, respectively. And, other flooded neighborhoods including, Filmore, Lakeview, Lower Ninth Ward, Mid-City, Seventh Ward, St. Bernard area, St. Roch, and Treme’/LaFitte all gained between 600 and 1,000 households. Five neighborhoods lost households from June 2010 to June 2016. Of those neighborhoods, four were on the west bank (Behrman, McDonogh, Old Aurora, and U.S. Naval Support Area). Looking at change from 2015 to 2016, seven neighborhoods gained 100 or more new households: Central Business District, Central City, Iberville Development, Little Woods, Mid-City, Seventh Ward, and Treme’/LaFitte. Uptown Freret West Riverside Au du bo n Central City Lower Garden District Central Business District Iberville French Quarter Jefferson Parish Garden St. Thomas District Dev Touro Irish Channel East Riverside Milan Broadmoor B.W. Cooper Tulane / Gravier St. Roch Gentilly Terrace Milneburg Plum Orchard Little Woods Behrman al B as e Old Aurora Tall Timbers / Brechtel Holy Cr os s Lower Ninth Ward Pines Village U.S. N av Fischer Development Whitney Bywater St. Claude Florida Florida Dev Area Desire Gentilly Woods Pontchartrain Park McDonogh Algiers Point Marigny Seventh Ward Treme' / Lafitte Bayou St. John Fairgrounds St. Bernard Area Dillard Source: The Data Center analysis of data from FEMA. Black Pearl East Carrollton Marlyville/ Fontainebleau Gert Town Mid-City City Park Filmore St. Anthony Lake Terrace & Oaks Lake Pontchartrain St. Bernard Parish Plaquemines Parish New Aurora / English Turn Mississippi River Read Blvd West West Lake Forest Read Blvd East Viavant/Venetian Isles Village de l'est 0 Lake Catherine 2 Miles August 2016 Leonidas Navarre Lakeview Dixon Lakewood Hollygrove Jefferson Parish West End Lakeshore / Lake Vista Neighborhood Boundaries Receded Waters September 11, 2005 New Orleans flood extent September 11, 2005 NEW ORLEANS FLOOD EXTENT - SEPTEMBER 11, 2005 2 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G Uptown Freret West Riverside Audubon French Quarter Central City Lower Garden District Touro Bywater St. Claude Florida FloridaDev Area Desire Jefferson Parish U.S. N a va l Ba se Old Aurora New Aurora / English Turn Mississippi River St. Bernard Parish Read Blvd East Plaquemines Parish Tall Timbers / Brechtel Holy C ross Read Blvd West West Lake Forest Plum Orchard Lower Ninth Ward Behrman Fischer Development McDonogh Algiers Point Whitney Marigny Central Business District Iberville Garden St. Thomas District Dev Irish Channel East Riverside Milan Broadmoor B.W. Cooper Tulane / Gravier Treme' / Lafitte St. Roch Gentilly Terrace Gentilly Woods Pines Village Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database Black Pearl East Carrollton Marlyville/ Fontainebleau Dillard Seventh Ward Fairgrounds St. Bernard Area St. Anthony Pontc ha rtrain Park Milneburg Little Woods Viavant/Venetian Isles Village de l'est 0 mail in June 2016 2 Miles Lake Catherine August 2016 Leonidas Lake Pontchartrain Lake Terrace & Oaks Filmore Bayou St. John City Park Mid-City Gert Town Dixon Lakewood Navarre Lakeview Hollygrove Jefferson Parish West End Lakeshore / Lake Vista 100% or greater 90% - 99.9% 75% - 89.9% 50% - 74.9% Less than 50% PERCENT OF JUNE 2005 RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES THAT WERE ACTIVELY RECEIVING IN JUNE 2016 Percent of June 2005 residential addresses that wereMAIL actively receiving 3 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G Uptown Freret West Riverside Audubon Central City Lower Garden District Central Business District French Quarter Florida FloridaDev Area Desire U.S. N a va l Ba se Old Aurora New Aurora / English Turn Mississippi River St. Bernard Parish Read Blvd East Plaquemines Parish Tall Timbers / Brechtel Holy C ross Read Blvd West West Lake Forest Plum Orchard Lower Ninth Ward Behrman Fischer Development McDonogh Algiers Point Whitney Bywater St. Claude Jefferson Parish Garden St. Thomas District Dev Touro Irish Channel East Riverside Milan Broadmoor B.W. Cooper Iberville Marigny St. Roch Gentilly Terrace Gentilly Woods Pines Village Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database Black Pearl East Carrollton Marlyville/ Fontainebleau Tulane / Gravier Treme' / Lafitte Seventh Ward Fairgrounds St. Bernard Area Dillard St. Anthony Pontc ha rtrain Park Milneburg Little Woods Viavant/Venetian Isles Village de l'est 0 mail in June 2016 2 Miles Lake Catherine August 2016 Leonidas Lake Pontchartrain Lake Terrace & Oaks Filmore Bayou St. John City Park Mid-City Gert Town Dixon Lakewood Navarre Lakeview Hollygrove Jefferson Parish West End Lakeshore / Lake Vista Greater than 50% 25.1 - 50% 10.1 - 25% 0.1 - 10% -100 - 0% PERCENT CHANGE OF JUNE of 2010June RESIDENTIAL ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL IN JUNE 2016 Percent Change 2010ADDRESSES residential addresses actively receiving 4 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G Uptown Freret West Riverside Audubon Central City Lower Garden District Central Business District Iberville Touro Florida FloridaDev Area Desire U.S. N a va l Ba se Old Aurora New Aurora / English Turn Mississippi River St. Bernard Parish Read Blvd East Plaquemines Parish Tall Timbers / Brechtel Holy C ross Read Blvd West West Lake Forest Plum Orchard Lower Ninth Ward Behrman Fischer Development McDonogh Algiers Point Whitney Bywater St. Claude Jefferson Parish Garden St. Thomas District Dev Irish Channel East Riverside Milan Broadmoor B.W. Cooper Tulane / Gravier Marigny French Quarter Treme' / Lafitte St. Roch Gentilly Terrace Gentilly Woods Pines Village Source: The Data Center analysis of Valassis Residential and Business Database Black Pearl East Carrollton Marlyville/ Fontainebleau Dillard Seventh Ward Fairgrounds St. Bernard Area St. Anthony Pontc ha rtrain Park Milneburg Little Woods Viavant/Venetian Isles Village de l'est June 2010 to June 2016 0 2 Miles Lake Catherine August 2016 Leonidas Lake Pontchartrain Lake Terrace & Oaks Filmore Bayou St. John City Park Mid-City Gert Town Dixon Lakewood Navarre Lakeview Hollygrove Jefferson Parish West End Lakeshore / Lake Vista More than 1000 601 - 1000 251 - 600 0 - 250 Below Zero CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL ADDRESSES ACTIVELY RECEIVING MAIL SINCE JUNE 2010 Change in number of active residential addresses from 5 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G 6 August 2016 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G About Valassis data The Data Center relies on the Valassis Residential and Business Database‚ which must be purchased from Valassis Direct Mail Inc, for neighborhood–level tabulations of addresses receiving mail. Valassis is one of only a few companies nationwide that qualifies to receive weekly data feeds from the U.S. Postal Services’ Address Management Services database. The Valassis Database is unique from other sources of U.S. Postal Service data because it provides address level data. Although the address level data cannot be released to the public‚ The Data Center developed a robust in–house geocoding process in order to generate extremely accurate census–block and neighborhood level data. The Valassis Database includes active and vacant addresses‚ but does not include no–stat addresses. You can find more detailed information in the following The Data Center publications: Plyer, A., & Ortiz, E. (2011, June). Valassis Lists Data as an Indicator of Population Recovery in the New Orleans Area. Retrieved from https://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/reports/GNOCDC_ValassisListsDataAsAnIndicatorOfPopulationRecovery.pdf. This technical documentation includes detailed descriptions of the Valassis, Inc. database‚ including a comparison of counts of active residential addresses between sources of U.S. Postal Service data. Plyer, A., & Bonaguro, J. (2007, June). Using U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics To Track the Repopulation of New Orleans and the Metropolitan Area. Retrieved from https://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws.com/reports/GNOCDC_research_note_May07.pdf. This research note explains why U.S. Postal Service Delivery Statistics are useful for tracking repopulation in a post–disaster context‚ and documents some of the limitations of the data as a measure of repopulation. Plyer, A., Bonaguro, J., & Hodges, K. (2009). Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster. Retrieved from http://www.springerlink.com/content/27r338422847q807/. This paper published in an academic journal reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets including USPS data that can form the basis of sound‚ relevant‚ and timely county–level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. 7 August 2016 DATA C E N T E R R E S E A R C H . O R G About the Authors Allison Plyer is executive director and chief demographer at The Data Center. About The Data Center The Data Center is the most trusted resource for data about greater New Orleans and Southeast Louisiana. Since 1997, The Data Center has been an objective partner in bringing reliable, thoroughly researched data to conversations about building a more prosperous, inclusive, and sustainable region. The Data Center (formerly known as the Greater New Orleans Community Data Center) became the local authority for tracking post-Katrina recovery with The New Orleans Index, developed in partnership with the Brookings Institution. Acknowledgments Caroline Heffernan and Bernardo Espinosa provided data and GIS analysis. Keisha Smith provided editorial support. Southpaw Creative provided design. The Data Center is supported in part by Baptist Community Ministries, Booth-Bricker Fund, Entergy Corp, George H. Wilson Jr. Fund, JPMorgan Chase Foundation, Kabacoff Family Foundation, Keller Family Foundation, Methodist Health Systems Foundation, Reily Foundation, RosaMary Foundation, United Way of Southeast Louisiana, Walton Family Foundation, Whitney Bank, Zemurray Foundation, and data users like you. References 1. Overview of Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans Area. (July 2006). In Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf Coast. Mitigation Assessment Team Report. Building Performance Observations, Recommendation, and Technical Guidance (Chapter 8).FEMA 549. Retrieved from http://www.fema.gov/ media-library-data/20130726-1520-20490-4521/549_ch8.pdf. 2. Current Housing Unit Damage Estimates. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. (2006, February 12). Retrieved from https://gnocdc.s3.amazonaws. com/reports/Katrina_Rita_Wilma_Damage_2_12_06___revised.pdf. 3. U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. (May 2015). Cumulative Estimates of Resident Population Change for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More in 2010, Ranked by Percent Change: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2015 [Data file]. Retrieved from http://www.census.gov/popest/data/cities/totals/2015/.